High vulnerability of coastal wetlands in Chile at multiple scales derived from climate change, urbanization, and exotic forest plantations

Coastal wetlands are considered one of the most vulnerable ecosystems worldwide; the ecosystem services they provide and the conservation of their biodiversity are threatened. Despite the high ecological and socioenvironmental value of coastal wetlands, regional and national vulnerability assessments are scarce. In this study we aimed to assess the vulnerability of coastal wetlands in Chile from 18°S to 42°S (n = 757) under a multiscale approach that included drivers associated with climate change and land cover change. We assessed multiple drivers of vulnerability at three spatial scales (10 m, 100 m, and 500 m) by analyzing multiple remote sensing data (16 variables) on land cover change, wildfires, climatic variables, vegetation functional properties, water surface and importance for biodiversity. We constructed a multifactorial vulnerability index based on the variables analyzed, which provided a map of coastal wetland vulnerability. Then we explored the main drivers associated with the vulnerability of each coastal wetland by performing a Principal Components Analysis with Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering, which allowed us to group coastal wetlands according to the drivers analyzed. We found that 42.6 ± 9.2 % of the coastal wetlands evaluated have high or very high vulnerability, with higher vulnerability at the 500 m scale (51.4 %). We identified four groups of coastal wetlands: two located in central Chile, mainly affected by climate change-associated drivers (41.9 ± 2.1 %), and one in central Chile which is affected by land cover change (52.8 ± 6.2 %); the latter has a lower vulnerability level. The most vulnerable coastal wetlands were located in central Chile. Our results present novel findings about the current vulnerability of coastal wetlands, which could be validated by governmental institutions in field campaigns. Finally, we believe that our methodological approach could be useful to generate similar assessments in other world zones.

Warming and drought weaken the carbon sink capacity of an endangered paleoendemic temperate rainforest in South America

Measurements of ecosystem carbon (C) fluxes in temperate forests are concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere, leaving the functionally diverse temperate forests in the Southern Hemisphere underrepresented. Here, we report three years (February 2018-January 2021) of C fluxes, studied with eddy-covariance and closed chamber techniques, in an endangered temperate evergreen rainforest of the long-lived paleoendemic South American conifer Fitzroya cupressoides. Using classification and regression trees we analyzed the most relevant drivers and thresholds of daily net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and soil respiration. The annual NEE showed that the forest was a moderate C sink during the period analyzed (-287±38 g C m^-2 year ^-1). We found that the capacity to capture C of the Fitzroya rainforests in the Coastal Range of southern Chile is optimal under cool and rainy conditions in the early austral spring (October-November) and decreases rapidly towards the summer dry season (January-February) and autumn. Although the studied forest type has a narrow geographical coverage, the gross primary productivity measured at the tower was highly representative of Fitzroya and other rainforests in the region. Our results suggest that C fluxes in paleoendemic cool F. cupressoides forests may be negatively affected by the warming and drying predicted by climate change models, reinforcing the importance of maintaining this and other long-term ecological research sites in the Southern Hemisphere.

Multiscale spatial analysis of headwater vulnerability in South-Central Chile reveals a high threat due to deforestation and climate change

Headwaters represent an essential component of hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomical systems, by providing constant water streams to the complete basin. However, despite the high importance of headwaters, there is a lack of vulnerability assessments worldwide. Identifying headwaters and their vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner can enable restauration and conservation programs. In this study, we assess the vulnerability of headwaters in South-Central Chile (38.4 to 43.2°S) considering multiple degradation factors related to climate change and land cover change. We analyzed 2292 headwaters, characterizing multiple factors at five spatial scales by using remote sensing data related to Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC), human disturbances, vegetation cover, climate change, potential water demand, and physiography. We then generated an index of vulnerability by integrating all the analyzed variables, which allowed us to map the spatial distribution of headwater vulnerability. Finally, to estimate the main drivers of degradation, we performed a Principal Components Analysis with an Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering, that allowed us to group headwaters according to the analyzed factors. The largest proportion of most vulnerable headwaters are located in the north of our study area with 48.1 %, 62.1 %, and 28.1 % of headwaters classified as highly vulnerable at 0, 10, and 30 m scale, respectively. The largest proportion of headwaters are affected by Climate Change (63.66 %) and LUCC (23.02 %) on average across all scales. However, we identified three clusters, in which the northern cluster is mainly affected by LUCC, while the Andean and Coastal clusters are mainly affected by climate change. Our results and methods present an informative picture of the current state of headwater vulnerability, identifying spatial patterns and drivers at multiple scales. We believe that the approach developed in this study could be useful for new studies in other zones of the world and can also promote Chilean headwater conservation.

Climate-induced tree senescence leads to a transient increase in reproductive success of a large woodpecker species

Climate change-induced mortality of trees is a concerning phenomenon for global forest ecosystems. The rapid decay and death of long-lived trees can significantly impact forest dynamics, with effects that transmit through ecological networks, becoming more evident in organisms occupying high trophic levels, such as large and specialized woodpecker species. However, understanding how populations of high trophic level species respond to climate change is still a challenge. In this study it was analyzed 32-year data of social groups of the Magellanic Woodpecker (Campephilus magellanicus) in North Patagonia, a region facing increasingly frequent droughts and increased temperatures. A positive trend in the size of woodpecker social groups as a response to climate-induced tree senescence was tested. A causal structural equation model examining climate- tree senescence- woodpecker relationships was used. Increasing nonlinear trends and positive interannual growth rates (>10%) for tree senescence and group size were found. Lowland forest sites had higher levels of tree senescence and more numerous social groups. The causal model supported the positive effect of mean temperature on tree senescence and the positive association of woodpeckers with tree senescence. These results provide evidence of a climate-induced increase in tree senescence that causes an increase in the size of woodpecker social groups. It is suggested that accelerated decay and mortality of trees in the northern Patagonian forests will decrease the stocks of deadwood in the long term, threatening the persistence of this large woodpecker species.

Long term effects of fire on the soil greenhouse gas balance of an old-growth temperate rainforest

Forest fires can cause great changes in the composition, structure and functioning of forest ecosystems. We studied the effects of a fire that occurred >50 years ago in a temperate rainforest that caused flooding conditions in a Placic Andosol to evaluate how long these effects last; we hypothesized that the effects of fire on the soil greenhouse gas (GHG) balance could last for many years. We made monthly measurements of fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) during two years of soils in an unburned forest (UF) and a nearby site that burned >50 years ago (BS). Our results show that CO₂ emissions from soils were higher in the UF than in the BS, and positively correlated with temperature and negatively with soil water content at both sites. Both sites were net CH₄ sinks (higher in the UF) and fluxes correlated positively with soil water content and negatively with temperature (stronger relation in the BS). Emissions of N₂O were low at both sites and showed correlation with friction velocity at the UF site. The soil GHG balance showed that the UF emitted about 80% more than the BS (5079 ± 1772 and 2815 ± 1447 g CO₂-eq m^-2 y^-1, respectively). Combining our measured fluxes with data of CO₂ net ecosystem exchange, we estimated that at the ecosystem level, the UF was a GHG sink while the BS was a source, showing a long-lasting effect of the fire and the importance of preserving these forest ecosystems.

Recent Consequences of Climate Change Have Affected Tree Growth in Distinct Nothofagus Macrocarpa (DC.) FM Vaz & Rodr Age Classes in Central Chile

Forests play an important role in water and carbon cycles in semiarid regions such as the Mediterranean ecosystems. Previous research in the Chilean Mediterranean forests revealed a break point in 1980 in regional tree-ring chronologies linked to climate change. However, it is still unclear which populations and age classes are more affected by recent increases in drought conditions. In this study, we investigated the influence of recent variations in precipitation, temperature, and CO2 concentrations on tree growth of various populations and age classes of Nothofagus macrocarpa trees in Central Chile. We sampled 10 populations from five sites of N. macrocarpa through its whole geographic distribution in both Coastal and Andes ranges. We used standard dendrochronological methods to (i) group populations using principal component analysis, (ii) separate age classes (young, mature, and old trees), (iii) evaluate linear growth trends based on the basal area increment (BAI), and (iv) analyze the link between BAI and atmospheric changes using linear mixed-effects models. Results showed that young trees are more sensitive to climate variability. Regarding population grouping, we observed that all population clusters were sensitive to winter-spring precipitation, but only the Andes and Coastal populations were negatively correlated with temperature. The results of CO2 fertilization analyses were controversial and unclear. Since young trees from all population clusters reacted positively in the phase with an increase of atmospheric CO2 between 1980 and 2014, this behavior was not translated into growth for the last 15 years (2000–2014). However, it should be noted that the young trees of the highest elevation populations did not have a negative growth trend, so it seems that CO2 counteracted the negative effect of recent regional climate change (increase in temperature and precipitation decrease) in these population trees. Further studies are needed to assess the effects of climate variability over other ecological and physiological processes.