Species‐specific differences in detection and occupancy probabilities help drive ability to detect trends in occupancy

Monitoring Animal Populations With Cameras Using Open, Multistate, N-Mixture Models

Remote cameras have become a mainstream tool for studying wildlife populations. For species whose developmental stages or states are identifiable in photographs, there are opportunities for tracking population changes and estimating demographic rates. Recent developments in hierarchical models allow for the estimation of ecological states and rates over time for unmarked animals whose states are known. However, this powerful class of models has been underutilized because they are computationally intensive, and model outputs can be difficult to interpret. Here, we use simulation to show how camera data can be analyzed with multistate, Dail-Madsen (hereafter multistate DM) models to estimate abundance, survival, and recruitment. We evaluated four commonly encountered scenarios arising from camera trap data (low and high abundance and 25% and 50% missing data) each with 18 different sample size combinations (camera sites = 40, 250; surveys = 4, 8, and 12; and years = 2, 5, 10) and evaluated the bias and precision of abundance, survival, and recruitment estimates. We also analyzed our empirical camera data on moose (Alces alces) with multistate DM models and compared inference with telemetry studies from the same time and region to assess the accuracy of camera studies to track moose populations. Most scenarios recovered the known parameters from our simulated data with higher accuracy and increased precision for scenarios with more sites, surveys, and/or years. Large amounts of missing data and fewer camera sites, especially at higher abundances, reduced accuracy, and precision of survival and recruitment. Our empirical analysis provided biologically realistic estimates of moose survival and recruitment and recovered the pattern of moose abundance across the region. Multistate DM models can be used for estimating demographic parameters from camera data when developmental states are clearly identifiable. We discuss several avenues for future research and caveats for using multistate DM models for large-scale population monitoring.

Protection status, human disturbance, snow cover and trapping drive density of a declining wolverine population in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Protected areas are important in species conservation, but high rates of human-caused mortality outside their borders and increasing popularity for recreation can negatively affect wildlife populations. We quantified wolverine (Gulo gulo) population trends from 2011 to 2020 in > 14,000 km2 protected and non-protected habitat in southwestern Canada. We conducted wolverine and multi-species surveys using non-invasive DNA and remote camera-based methods. We developed Bayesian integrated models combining spatial capture-recapture data of marked and unmarked individuals with occupancy data. Wolverine density and occupancy declined by 39%, with an annual population growth rate of 0.925. Density within protected areas was 3 times higher than outside and declined between 2011 (3.6 wolverines/1000 km2) and 2020 (2.1 wolverines/1000 km2). Wolverine density and detection probability increased with snow cover and decreased near development. Detection probability also decreased with human recreational activity. The annual harvest rate of ≥ 13% was above the maximum sustainable rate. We conclude that humans negatively affected the population through direct mortality, sub-lethal effects and habitat impacts. Our study exemplifies the need to monitor population trends for species at risk-within and between protected areas-as steep declines can occur unnoticed if key conservation concerns are not identified and addressed.

Umbrella effect of monitoring protocols for mammals in the Northeast US

Developing cost-effective monitoring protocols is a priority for wildlife conservation agencies worldwide. In particular, developing protocols that cover a wide range of species is highly desirable. Here we applied the 'umbrella species' concept to the context of ecological monitoring; specifically testing the hypothesis that protocols developed for the American marten would contextually allow detecting occupancy trends for 13 other mammalian species (i.e., an umbrella effect). We conducted a large-scale four-year camera trapping survey across a gradient of forest disturbance in Maine, USA. We sampled 197 sites using a total of 591 cameras and collected over 800,000 photographs to generate detection histories for the most common terrestrial species. By combining multi-season occupancy modelling and power analyses, we estimated the required sampling effort to detect 10%, 25% and 50% declines in the fourteen species. By conducting a spatially explicit comparison of sampling effort, we found evidence that monitoring protocols for American marten would provide an umbrella effect for up to 11 other mammal species. The capacity of the umbrella effect varied among species, with fisher, snowshoe hare, red squirrel, and black bear consistently covered under several scenarios. Our results support the application of the umbrella species concept to monitoring (here defined as 'umbrella monitoring species'), providing empirical evidence for its use by management agencies.

Modelos de ocupación para datos de cámaras trampa

El uso de las cámaras trampa (CT) en la investigación de fauna silvestre puede generar conclusiones sesgadas cuando la detectabilidad imperfecta de especies no es considerada. Herramientas analíticas como los modelos de ocupación permiten estimar simultáneamente parámetros ecológicos corregidos por la probabilidad de detección. Sin embargo, es necesario implementar e interpretar de manera correcta los parámetros estimados por estos modelos para obtener inferencias con sentido biológico. Este trabajo presenta un marco conceptual base para diseñar de manera apropiada un análisis de ocupación por medio de datos de CT. Se discuten y se señalan recomendaciones generales para la definición de los elementos del modelo, el diseño del muestreo, así como estrategias de modelamiento estadísticos apropiadas dependiendo de los objetivos del estudio, las características de la especie y el tipo de datos obtenidos. Las decisiones tomadas por el investigador para definir cada uno de los componentes del modelo deben considerar la escala adecuada para que el fenómeno de estudio tenga sentido biológico. De esta manera, es posible generar inferencias y conclusiones robustas a partir de información de CT, lo que permite avanzar en el entendimiento de los mecanismos que subyacen a la ecología espacial de fauna silvestre y por lo tanto en su conservación.

Next-Generation Camera Trapping: Systematic Review of Historic Trends Suggests Keys to Expanded Research Applications in Ecology and Conservation

Camera trapping is an effective non-invasive method for collecting data on wildlife species to address questions of ecological and conservation interest. We reviewed 2,167 camera trap (CT) articles from 1994 to 2020. Through the lens of technological diffusion, we assessed trends in: (1) CT adoption measured by published research output, (2) topic, taxonomic, and geographic diversification and composition of CT applications, and (3) sampling effort, spatial extent, and temporal duration of CT studies. Annual publications of CT articles have grown 81-fold since 1994, increasing at a rate of 1.26 (SE = 0.068) per year since 2005, but with decelerating growth since 2017. Topic, taxonomic, and geographic richness of CT studies increased to encompass 100% of topics, 59.4% of ecoregions, and 6.4% of terrestrial vertebrates. However, declines in per article rates of accretion and plateaus in Shannon's H for topics and major taxa studied suggest upper limits to further diversification of CT research as currently practiced. Notable compositional changes of topics included a decrease in capture-recapture, recent decrease in spatial-capture-recapture, and increases in occupancy, interspecific interactions, and automated image classification. Mammals were the dominant taxon studied; within mammalian orders carnivores exhibited a unimodal peak whereas primates, rodents and lagomorphs steadily increased. Among biogeographic realms we observed decreases in Oceania and Nearctic, increases in Afrotropic and Palearctic, and unimodal peaks for Indomalayan and Neotropic. Camera days, temporal extent, and area sampled increased, with much greater rates for the 0.90 quantile of CT studies compared to the median. Next-generation CT studies are poised to expand knowledge valuable to wildlife ecology and conservation by posing previously infeasible questions at unprecedented spatiotemporal scales, on a greater array of species, and in a wider variety of environments. Converting potential into broad-based application will require transferable models of automated image classification, and data sharing among users across multiple platforms in a coordinated manner. Further taxonomic diversification likely will require technological modifications that permit more efficient sampling of smaller species and adoption of recent improvements in modeling of unmarked populations. Environmental diversification can benefit from engineering solutions that expand ease of CT sampling in traditionally challenging sites.