Lethal combination for seedlings: extreme heat drives mortality of drought-exposed high-elevation pine seedlings

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hotter drought- and biotically driven tree mortality are expected to increase with climate change in much of the western USA, and species persistence will depend upon ongoing establishment in novel conditions or migration to track ecological niche requirements. High-elevation tree species might be particularly vulnerable to increasing water stress as snowpack declines, increasing the potential for adult mortality and simultaneous regeneration failures. Seedling survival will be determined by ecophysiological limitations in response to changing water availability and temperature.

METHODS

We exposed seedlings from populations of Pinus longaeva, Pinus flexilis and Pinus albicaulis to severe drought and concurrent temperature stress in common gardens, testing the timing of drought onset under two different temperature regimes. We monitored seedling functional traits, physiological function and survival.

KEY RESULTS

The combined stressors of water limitation and extreme heat led to conservative water-use strategies and declines in physiological function, with these joint stressors ultimately exceeding species tolerances and leading to complete episodic mortality across all species. Growing conditions were the primary determinant of seedling trait expression, with seedlings exhibiting more drought-resistant traits, such as lower specific leaf area, in the hottest, driest treatment conditions. Water stress-induced stomatal closure was also widely apparent. In the presence of adequate soil moisture, seedlings endured prolonged exposure to high air and surface temperatures, suggesting broad margins for survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The critical interaction between soil moisture and temperature suggests that rising temperatures will exacerbate moisture stress during the growing season. Our results highlight the importance of local conditions over population- and species-level influences in shaping strategies for stress tolerance and resistance to desiccation at this early life stage. By quantifying some of the physiological consequences of drought and heat that lead to seedling mortality, we can gain a better understanding of the future effects of global change on the composition and distribution of high-elevation conifer forests.

Reducing Fire Severity and Extent Bolsters Subalpine Forest Resilience to Global Change Through Key Demographic Pathways

High-elevation subalpine forests are experiencing rapid changes in climatic conditions, biological disturbances, and wildfire regimes. Despite this, evidence is mixed as to whether they will undergo major ecological transformation or be resilient to a confluence of global change drivers. Here we use subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) and Englemann spruce (Picea engelmannii), which form co-dominant forests through much of the western United States, to investigate how species' demographic responses to global change influence forest community-wide resilience. We do this by adapting and building on an existing framework for post-disturbance ecological reorganization. With forest inventory data from the United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program, we quantify population trends for subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce across their joint distribution and organize them in a new conceptual framework for categorizing forest community trajectories. We then build hierarchical Bayesian demographic models of subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce mortality, regeneration, and recruitment as functions of climate, disturbance extent and severity, and forest structural predictors. We bring demographic predictions together in a multinomial classification model to quantify how combinations of demographic rates influence overall forest community trajectories. Finally, we apply future climate and disturbance scenarios to our demographic models to explore how subalpine forest resilience may change in the future. We found strong negative relationships between the demography of both species and disturbance extent and severity, and climatic responses in line with an energy-limited forest system. Future scenario model predictions indicate that reducing wildfire extent and severity can greatly bolster overall subalpine forest resilience; the preferred way to do this will vary according to fire history, forest type, biophysical setting, and land tenure. Opportunities for high-impact management interventions are concentrated in the northern Rocky Mountains, with centers of ongoing resilience in parts of the Oregon and Washington Cascades.

Improved aboveground biomass estimation and regional assessment with aerial lidar in California's subalpine forests

BACKGROUND

Understanding the impacts of climate change on forest aboveground biomass is a high priority for land managers. High elevation subalpine forests provide many important ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, and are vulnerable to climate change, which has altered forest structure and disturbance regimes. Although large, regional studies have advanced aboveground biomass mapping with satellite data, typically using a general approach broadly calibrated or trained with available field data, it is unclear how well these models work in less prevalent and highly heterogeneous forest types such as the subalpine. Monitoring biomass using methods that model uncertainty at multiple scales is critical to ensure that local relationships between biomass and input variables are retained. Forest structure metrics from lidar are particularly valuable alongside field data for mapping aboveground biomass, due to their high correlation with biomass.

RESULTS

We estimated aboveground woody biomass of live and dead trees and uncertainty at 30 m resolution in subalpine forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, from aerial lidar data in combination with a collection of field inventory data, using a Bayesian geostatistical model. The ten-fold cross-validation resulted in excellent model calibration of our subalpine-specific model (94.7% of measured plot biomass within the predicted 95% credible interval). When evaluated against two commonly referenced regional estimates based on Landsat optical imagery, root mean square error, relative standard error, and bias of our estimations were substantially lower, demonstrating the benefits of local modeling for subalpine forests. We mapped AGB over four management units in the Sierra Nevada and found variable biomass density ranging from 92.4 to 199.2 Mg/ha across these management units, highlighting the importance of high quality, local field and remote sensing data.

CONCLUSIONS

By applying a relatively new Bayesian geostatistical modeling method to a novel forest type, our study produced the most accurate and precise aboveground biomass estimates to date for Sierra Nevada subalpine forests at 30 m pixel and management unit scales. Our estimates of total aboveground biomass within the management units had low uncertainty and can be used effectively in carbon accounting and carbon trading markets.

The energy-water limitation threshold explains divergent drought responses in tree growth, needle length, and stable isotope ratios

Predicted increases in extreme droughts will likely cause major shifts in carbon sequestration and forest composition. Although growth declines during drought are widely documented, an increasing number of studies have reported both positive and negative responses to the same drought. These divergent growth patterns may reflect thresholds (i.e., nonlinear responses) promoted by changes in the dominant climatic constraints on tree growth. Here we tested whether stemwood growth exhibited linear or nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation and whether stemwood growth thresholds co-occurred with multiple thresholds in source and sink processes that limit tree growth. We extracted 772 tree cores, 1398 needle length records, and 1075 stable isotope samples from 27 sites across whitebark pine's (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) climatic niche in the Sierra Nevada. Our results indicated that a temperature threshold in stemwood growth occurred at 8.4°C (7.12-9.51°C; estimated using fall-spring maximum temperature). This threshold was significantly correlated with thresholds in foliar growth, as well as carbon (δ13 C) and nitrogen (δ15 N) stable isotope ratios, that emerged during drought. These co-occurring thresholds reflected the transition between energy- and water-limited tree growth (i.e., the E-W limitation threshold). This transition likely mediated carbon and nutrient cycling, as well as important differences in growth-defense trade-offs and drought adaptations. Furthermore, whitebark pine growing in energy-limited regions may continue to experience elevated growth in response to climate change. The positive effect of warming, however, may be offset by growth declines in water-limited regions, threatening the long-term sustainability of the recently listed whitebark pine species in the Sierra Nevada.

Light and scanning electron microscopy of aecia and aeciospores of Cronartium ribicola on Pinus koraiensis branch tissues

Morphological characteristics of aecia and aeciospores of Cronartium ribicola on Pinus koraiensis branch tissues were investigated using light and field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM). Mature P. koraiensis trees in Jeongseon, Korea, showed yellowish aecia on stems and branches. Aecia and surrounding tissues were excised from the lesions and vapor-fixed for FESEM imaging, which revealed morphology including intact blister-shaped, flattened, and burst forms. Light microscopy revealed yellowish aeciospores having surface projections. Aeciospores were mostly ovoid and measured approximately 20 µm long. The FESEM showed irregularly shaped cracks on the aecia that had erupted through the bark of P. koraiensis. Some aeciospores had germinated, producing two germ tubes from a spore in a burst aecium. Aeciospores had both smooth and verrucose regions on the surface, and some had concave or convex regions. Aeciospore layers and underlying fungal matrices including aecial columns were obvious in the cross-sections of aecia. Approximately 1 µm-high wart-like surface projections could be resolved and comprised less than 10 angular platelets stacked in vertical rows. Remains of the primary spore wall were present between surface projections. These results provide insights into the morphology of the heteroecious rust fungus with the help of vapor fixation and high-resolution surface imaging.

Growth, drought response, and climate-associated genomic structure in whitebark pine in the Sierra Nevada of California

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) has experienced rapid population declines and is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in the United States. Whitebark pine in the Sierra Nevada of California represents the southernmost end of the species' distribution and, like other portions of its range, faces threats from an introduced pathogen, native bark beetles, and a rapidly warming climate. Beyond these chronic stressors, there is also concern about how this species will respond to acute stressors, such as drought. We present patterns of stem growth from 766 large (average diameter at breast height >25 cm), disease-free whitebark pine across the Sierra Nevada before and during a recent period of drought. We contextualize growth patterns using population genomic diversity and structure from a subset of 327 trees. Sampled whitebark pine generally had positive to neutral stem growth trends from 1970 to 2011, which was positively correlated with minimum temperature and precipitation. Indices of stem growth during drought years (2012 to 2015) relative to a predrought interval were mostly positive to neutral at our sampled sites. Individual tree growth response phenotypes appeared to be linked to genotypic variation in climate-associated loci, suggesting that some genotypes can take better advantage of local climatic conditions than others. We speculate that reduced snowpack during the 2012 to 2015 drought years may have lengthened the growing season while retaining sufficient moisture to maintain growth at most study sites. Growth responses may differ under future warming, however, particularly if drought severity increases and modifies interactions with pests and pathogens.

The complexity of biological disturbance agents, fuels heterogeneity, and fire in coniferous forests of the western United States

Forest biological disturbance agents (BDAs) are insects, pathogens, and parasitic plants that affect tree decline, mortality, and forest ecosystems processes. BDAs are commonly thought to increase the likelihood and severity of fire by converting live standing trees to more flammable, dead and downed fuel. However, recent research indicates that BDAs do not necessarily increase, and can reduce, the likelihood or severity of fire. This has led to confusion regarding the role of BDAs in influencing fuels and fire in fire-prone western United States forests. Here, we review the existing literature on BDAs and their effects on fuels and fire in the western US and develop a conceptual framework to better understand the complex relationships between BDAs, fuels and fire. We ask: 1) What are the major BDA groups in western US forests that affect fuels? and 2) How do BDA-affected fuels influence fire risk and outcomes? The conceptual framework is rooted in the spatiotemporal aspects of BDA life histories, which drive forest impacts, fuel characteristics and if ignited, fire outcomes. Life histories vary among BDAs from episodic, landscape-scale outbreaks (bark beetles, defoliators), to chronic, localized disturbance effects (dwarf mistletoes, root rots). Generally, BDAs convert aboveground live biomass to dead biomass, decreasing canopy fuels and increasing surface fuels. However, the rate of conversion varies with time-since-event and among BDAs and forest types, resulting in a wide range of effects on the amount of dead fuels at any given time and place, which interacts with the structure and composition of the stand before and subsequent to BDA events. A major influence on fuels may be that BDAs have emerged as dominant agents of forest heterogeneity creation. Because BDAs play complex roles in fuels and fire heterogeneity across the western US which are further complicated by interactions with climate change, drought, and forest management (fire suppression), their impacts on fuels, fire and ecological consequences cannot be categorized simply as positive or negative but need to be evaluated within the context of BDA life histories and ecosystem dynamics.

Constitutive and Induced Defenses in Long-lived Pines Do Not Trade Off but Are Influenced by Climate

Plants resist herbivores and pathogens by using constitutive (baseline) and inducible (change in defense after an attack) defenses. Inducibility has long been predicted to trade off with constitutive defense, reflecting the economic use of resources. However, empirical evidence for such tradeoffs is variable, and we still lack understanding about when and where defense trade-offs occur. We tested for tradeoffs between constitutive and induced defenses in natural populations of three species of long-lived pines (Pinus balfouriana, P. flexilis, P. longaeva) that differ greatly in constitutive defense and resistance to mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae). We also assessed how climate influenced constitutive and inducible defenses. At seven high-elevation sites in the western U.S., we simulated MPB attack to induce defenses and measured concentrations of terpene-based phloem defenses on days 0, 15, and 30. Constitutive and induced defenses did not trade off among or within species. Simulated MPB attack induced large increases in defense concentrations in all species independent of constitutive levels. MPB and its symbiotic fungi typically kill trees and thus could be selective forces maintaining strong inducibility within and among species. The contrasting constitutive concentrations in these species could be driven by the adaptation for specializing in harsh, high-elevation environments (e.g., P. balfouriana and P. longaeva) or by competition (e.g., P. flexilis), though these hypotheses have not been empirically examined. Climate influenced defenses, with the greatest concentrations of constitutive and induced defenses occurring at the coldest and driest sites. The interactions between climate and defenses have implications for these species under climate change.

Nonlinear shifts in infectious rust disease due to climate change

Range shifts of infectious plant disease are expected under climate change. As plant diseases move, emergent abiotic-biotic interactions are predicted to modify their distributions, leading to unexpected changes in disease risk. Evidence of these complex range shifts due to climate change, however, remains largely speculative. Here, we combine a long-term study of the infectious tree disease, white pine blister rust, with a six-year field assessment of drought-disease interactions in the southern Sierra Nevada. We find that climate change between 1996 and 2016 moved the climate optimum of the disease into higher elevations. The nonlinear climate change-disease relationship contributed to an estimated 5.5 (4.4-6.6) percentage points (p.p.) decline in disease prevalence in arid regions and an estimated 6.8 (5.8-7.9) p.p. increase in colder regions. Though climate change likely expanded the suitable area for blister rust by 777.9 (1.0-1392.9) km² into previously inhospitable regions, the combination of host-pathogen and drought-disease interactions contributed to a substantial decrease (32.79%) in mean disease prevalence between surveys. Specifically, declining alternate host abundance suppressed infection probabilities at high elevations, even as climatic conditions became more suitable. Further, drought-disease interactions varied in strength and direction across an aridity gradient-likely decreasing infection risk at low elevations while simultaneously increasing infection risk at high elevations. These results highlight the critical role of aridity in modifying host-pathogen-drought interactions. Variation in aridity across topographic gradients can strongly mediate plant disease range shifts in response to climate change.