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Native diversity contributes to composition heterogeneity of exotic floras. Ecosphere 2023. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/11/2023] Open
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Climate Effects on Prairie Productivity Partially Ameliorated by Soil Nutrients and Plant Community Responses. Ecosystems 2022. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-022-00811-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
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Jenouvrier S, Long MC, Coste CFD, Holland M, Gamelon M, Yoccoz NG, Sæther B. Detecting climate signals in populations across life histories. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:2236-2258. [PMID: 34931401 PMCID: PMC9303565 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2021] [Revised: 11/30/2021] [Accepted: 12/01/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Climate impacts are not always easily discerned in wild populations as detecting climate change signals in populations is challenged by stochastic noise associated with natural climate variability, variability in biotic and abiotic processes, and observation error in demographic rates. Detection of the impact of climate change on populations requires making a formal distinction between signals in the population associated with long-term climate trends from those generated by stochastic noise. The time of emergence (ToE) identifies when the signal of anthropogenic climate change can be quantitatively distinguished from natural climate variability. This concept has been applied extensively in the climate sciences, but has not been explored in the context of population dynamics. Here, we outline an approach to detecting climate-driven signals in populations based on an assessment of when climate change drives population dynamics beyond the envelope characteristic of stochastic variations in an unperturbed state. Specifically, we present a theoretical assessment of the time of emergence of climate-driven signals in population dynamics ( ToE pop ). We identify the dependence of ToE pop on the magnitude of both trends and variability in climate and also explore the effect of intrinsic demographic controls on ToE pop . We demonstrate that different life histories (fast species vs. slow species), demographic processes (survival, reproduction), and the relationships between climate and demographic rates yield population dynamics that filter climate trends and variability differently. We illustrate empirically how to detect the point in time when anthropogenic signals in populations emerge from stochastic noise for a species threatened by climate change: the emperor penguin. Finally, we propose six testable hypotheses and a road map for future research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stéphanie Jenouvrier
- Biology DepartmentWoods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionWoods HoleMassachusettsUSA
| | | | - Christophe F. D. Coste
- Centre for Biodiversity DynamicsDepartment of BiologyNorwegian University of Science and TechnologyTrondheimNorway
| | - Marika Holland
- National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderColoradoUSA
| | - Marlène Gamelon
- Centre for Biodiversity DynamicsDepartment of BiologyNorwegian University of Science and TechnologyTrondheimNorway
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie ÉvolutiveCNRSUnité Mixte de Recherche (UMR) 5558Université Lyon 1Université de LyonVilleurbanneFrance
| | - Nigel G. Yoccoz
- Department of Arctic and Marine BiologyUiT The Arctic University of NorwayTromsøNorway
| | - Bernt‐Erik Sæther
- Centre for Biodiversity DynamicsDepartment of BiologyNorwegian University of Science and TechnologyTrondheimNorway
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Brambila A, Reed PB, Bridgham SD, Roy BA, Johnson BR, Pfeifer‐Meister L, Hallett LM. Disturbance: a double‐edged sword for restoration in a changing climate. Restor Ecol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/rec.13675] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Paul B. Reed
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution University of Oregon
| | | | - Bitty A. Roy
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution University of Oregon
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Reed PB, Bridgham SD, Pfeifer-Meister LE, Peterson ML, Johnson BR, Roy BA, Bailes GT, Nelson AA, Morris WF, Doak DF. Climate warming threatens the persistence of a community of disturbance-adapted native annual plants. Ecology 2021; 102:e03464. [PMID: 34236709 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3464] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2020] [Revised: 03/29/2021] [Accepted: 05/13/2021] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
Abstract
With ongoing climate change, populations are expected to exhibit shifts in demographic performance that will alter where a species can persist. This presents unique challenges for managing plant populations and may require ongoing interventions, including in situ management or introduction into new locations. However, few studies have examined how climate change may affect plant demographic performance for a suite of species, or how effective management actions could be in mitigating climate change effects. Over the course of two experiments spanning 6 yr and four sites across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, United States, we manipulated temperature, precipitation, and disturbance intensity, and quantified effects on the demography of eight native annual prairie species. Each year we planted seeds and monitored germination, survival, and reproduction. We found that disturbance strongly influenced demographic performance and that seven of the eight species had increasingly poor performance with warmer conditions. Across species and sites, we observed 11% recruitment (the proportion of seeds planted that survived to reproduction) following high disturbance, but just 3.9% and 2.3% under intermediate and low disturbance, respectively. Moreover, mean seed production following high disturbance was often more than tenfold greater than under intermediate and low disturbance. Importantly, most species exhibited precipitous declines in their population growth rates (λ) under warmer-than-ambient experimental conditions and may require more frequent disturbance intervention to sustain populations. Aristida oligantha, a C4 grass, was the only species to have λ increase with warmer conditions. These results suggest that rising temperatures may cause many native annual plant species to decline, highlighting the urgency for adaptive management practices that facilitate their restoration or introduction to newly suitable locations. Frequent and intense disturbances are critical to reduce competitors and promote native annuals' persistence, but even such efforts may prove futile under future climate regimes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul B Reed
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Scott D Bridgham
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | | | - Megan L Peterson
- Plant Biology Department, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, 30606, USA
| | - Bart R Johnson
- Department of Landscape Architecture, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Bitty A Roy
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Graham T Bailes
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Aaron A Nelson
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - William F Morris
- Biology Department, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, 27708, USA
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, 80309, USA
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