1
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O'Connell RD, Doak DF, Horvitz CC, Pascarella JB, Morris WF. Nonlinear life table response experiment analysis: Decomposing nonlinear and nonadditive population growth responses to changes in environmental drivers. Ecol Lett 2024; 27:e14417. [PMID: 38549264 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14417] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2023] [Revised: 02/19/2024] [Accepted: 02/20/2024] [Indexed: 04/02/2024]
Abstract
Life table response experiments (LTREs) decompose differences in population growth rate between environments into separate contributions from each underlying demographic rate. However, most LTRE analyses make the unrealistic assumption that the relationships between demographic rates and environmental drivers are linear and independent, which may result in diminished accuracy when these assumptions are violated. We extend regression LTREs to incorporate nonlinear (second-order) terms and compare the accuracy of both approaches for three previously published demographic datasets. We show that the second-order approach equals or outperforms the linear approach for all three case studies, even when all of the underlying vital rate functions are linear. Nonlinear vital rate responses to driver changes contributed most to population growth rate responses, but life history changes also made substantial contributions. Our results suggest that moving from linear to second-order LTRE analyses could improve our understanding of population responses to changing environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan D O'Connell
- Department of Biology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Carol C Horvitz
- Department of Biology, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, USA
| | - John B Pascarella
- Department of Biological Sciences, Sam Houston State University, Huntsville, Texas, USA
| | - William F Morris
- Department of Biology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
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2
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Goebl AM, Kane NC, Doak DF, Rieseberg LH, Ostevik KL. Adaptation to distinct habitats is maintained by contrasting selection at different life stages in sunflower ecotypes. Mol Ecol 2024; 33:e16785. [PMID: 36374153 DOI: 10.1111/mec.16785] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2022] [Revised: 10/20/2022] [Accepted: 11/02/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Conspecific populations living in adjacent but contrasting microenvironments represent excellent systems for studying natural selection. These systems are valuable because gene flow is expected to force genetic homogeneity except at loci experiencing divergent selection. A history of reciprocal transplant and common garden studies in such systems, and a growing number of genomic studies, have contributed to understanding how selection operates in natural populations. While selection can vary across different fitness components and life stages, few studies have investigated how this ultimately affects allele frequencies and the maintenance of divergence between populations. Here, we study two sunflower ecotypes in distinct, adjacent habitats by combining demographic models with genome-wide sequence data to estimate fitness and allele frequency change at multiple life stages. This framework allows us to estimate that only local ecotypes are likely to experience positive population growth (λ > 1) and that the maintenance of divergent adaptation appears to be mediated via habitat- and life stage-specific selection. We identify genetic variation, significantly driven by loci in chromosomal inversions, associated with different life history strategies in neighbouring ecotypes that optimize different fitness components and may contribute to the maintenance of distinct ecotypes.
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Affiliation(s)
- April M Goebl
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Nolan C Kane
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Programme, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Loren H Rieseberg
- Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Kate L Ostevik
- Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Department of Evolution, Ecology and Organismal Biology, University of California Riverside, Riverside, California, USA
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3
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Carscadden KA, Doak DF, Oldfather MF, Emery NC. Demographic responses of hybridizing cinquefoils to changing climate in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10097. [PMID: 37449020 PMCID: PMC10336340 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10097] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2023] [Accepted: 04/27/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Hybridization between taxa generates new pools of genetic variation that can lead to different environmental responses and demographic trajectories over time than seen in parental lineages. The potential for hybrids to have novel environmental tolerances may be increasingly important in mountainous regions, which are rapidly warming and drying due to climate change. Demographic analysis makes it possible to quantify within- and among-species responses to variation in climate and to predict population growth rates as those conditions change. We estimated vital rates and population growth in 13 natural populations of two cinquefoil taxa (Potentilla hippiana and P. pulcherrima) and their hybrid across elevation gradients in the Southern Rockies. Using three consecutive years of environmental and demographic data, we compared the demographic responses of hybrid and parental taxa to environmental variation across space and time. All three taxa had lower predicted population growth rates under warm, dry conditions. However, the magnitude of these responses varied among taxa and populations. Hybrids had consistently lower predicted population growth rates than P. hippiana. In contrast, hybrid performance relative to P. pulcherrima varied with population and climate, with the hybrid maintaining relatively stable growth rates while populations of P. pulcherrima shrank under warm, dry conditions. Our findings demonstrate that hybrids in this system are neither intrinsically unfit nor universally more vigorous than parents, suggesting that the demographic consequences of hybridization are context-dependent. Our results also imply that shifts to warmer and drier conditions could have particularly negative repercussions for P. pulcherrima, which is currently the most abundant taxon in the study area, possibly as a legacy of more favorable historical climates. More broadly, the distributions of these long-lived taxa are lagging behind their demographic trajectories, such that the currently less common P. hippiana could become the most abundant of the Potentilla taxa as this region continues to warm and dry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kelly A. Carscadden
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary BiologyUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderColoradoUSA
| | - Daniel F. Doak
- Department of Environmental StudiesUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderColoradoUSA
| | - Meagan F. Oldfather
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary BiologyUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderColoradoUSA
| | - Nancy C. Emery
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary BiologyUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderColoradoUSA
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4
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Doak DF, Waddle E, Langendorf RE, Louthan AM, Chardon NI, Dibner R, Shriver RK, Linares C, Garcia MB, Fitzpatrick SW, Morris WF, DeMarche ML. A critical comparison of integral projection and matrix projection models for demographic analysis: Reply. Ecology 2022; 103:e3822. [PMID: 35861600 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3822] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2022] [Revised: 05/27/2022] [Accepted: 06/02/2022] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel F Doak
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Ellen Waddle
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Ryan E Langendorf
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA.,Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Allison M Louthan
- Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas, USA.,Department of Biology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | | | - Reilly Dibner
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA
| | - Robert K Shriver
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada, USA
| | - Cristina Linares
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio), University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Sarah W Fitzpatrick
- W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, Hickory Corners, Michigan, USA
| | - William F Morris
- Department of Biology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Megan L DeMarche
- Plant Biology Department, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA
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5
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Bakker VJ, Finkelstein ME, D'Elia J, Doak DF, Kirkland S. Genetically based demographic reconstructions require careful consideration of generation time. Curr Biol 2022; 32:R356-R357. [PMID: 35472420 DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2022.03.048] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
Bakker et al. use Robinson et al.'s reconstruction of three species of vulture to illustrate how incorrect generation time estimates can yield inaccurate results, underscoring the importance of generation time specification for genetically based reconstructions, especially for comparisons and species of conservation concern.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Myra E Finkelstein
- Microbiology and Environmental Toxicology Department, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
| | - Jesse D'Elia
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Portland, OR, USA
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
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6
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Carscadden KA, Doak DF, Emery NC. Climate Variation Influences Flowering Time Overlap in a Pair of Hybridizing Montane Plants. WEST N AM NATURALIST 2022. [DOI: 10.3398/064.082.0112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Kelly A. Carscadden
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, 1900 Pleasant St., Boulder, CO 80309
| | - Daniel F. Doak
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, 1900 Pleasant St., Boulder, CO 80309
| | - Nancy C. Emery
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, 1900 Pleasant St., Boulder, CO 80309
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7
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Goebl AM, Doak DF, Kane NC. Empirical test of increasing genetic variation via inter‐population crossing for native plant restoration in variable environments. Restor Ecol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/rec.13648] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- April M. Goebl
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology University of Colorado Boulder CO USA 80302
| | - Daniel F. Doak
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder CO USA 80303
| | - Nolan C. Kane
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology University of Colorado Boulder CO USA 80302
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8
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Hays BR, Riginos C, Palmer TM, Doak DF, Gituku BC, Maiyo NJ, Mutisya S, Musila S, Goheen JR. Demographic consequences of mutualism disruption: Browsing and big-headed ant invasion drive acacia population declines. Ecology 2022; 103:e3655. [PMID: 35132627 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3655] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2021] [Revised: 10/14/2021] [Accepted: 10/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Across the globe, biological invasions have disrupted mutualisms, producing reverberating consequences for ecosystems. Although invasive species frequently trigger mutualism disruptions, few studies have quantified the demographic mechanisms by which mutualism breakdown may generate population effects. In a Kenyan savanna, the invasive big-headed ant (Pheidole megacephala) has disrupted a foundational mutualism between the monodominant whistling-thorn tree (Acacia drepanolobium) and native ants (Crematogaster spp.) that deter browsing by large mammalian herbivores. We conducted experiments to quantify the demographic consequences of this mutualism disruption in the presence and absence of large mammalian herbivores. Invasion by P. megacephala exacerbated population declines of A. drepanolobium, primarily through decreased survival and reproduction of adult trees. However, these fitness reductions were small compared to those resulting from the presence of large mammalian herbivores, which negatively impacted growth and survival. Contrary to expectation, the expulsion of metabolically costly Crematogaster mutualists by P. megacephala did not result in higher population growth rates for trees protected from large mammalian herbivores. Our results suggest that invasive P. megacephala may impose a direct metabolic cost to trees exceeding that of native mutualists while providing no protection from browsing by large mammalian herbivores. Across landscapes, we expect that invasion by P. megacephala will reduce A. drepanolobium populations, but that the magnitude and demographic pathways of this effect will hinge on the presence and abundance of browsers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brandon R Hays
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA
| | - Corinna Riginos
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA.,The Nature Conservancy, 258 Main Street, Lander, Wyoming, USA
| | - Todd M Palmer
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Florida, USA
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Benard C Gituku
- Department of Land Resource Management & Agricultural Technology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya.,Conservation Department, Ol Pejeta Conservancy, Nanyuki, Kenya
| | - Nelly J Maiyo
- Conservation Department, Ol Pejeta Conservancy, Nanyuki, Kenya
| | - Samuel Mutisya
- Conservation Department, Ol Pejeta Conservancy, Nanyuki, Kenya
| | - Simon Musila
- Mammalogy Section, National Museums of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Jacob R Goheen
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA
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9
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Bakker VJ, Doak DF, Ferrara FJ. Understanding extinction risk and resilience in an extremely small population facing climate and ecosystem change. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3724] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Victoria J. Bakker
- Department of Ecology Montana State University Bozeman Montana 59717 USA
| | - Daniel F. Doak
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado 80309 USA
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10
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Reed PB, Bridgham SD, Pfeifer-Meister LE, Peterson ML, Johnson BR, Roy BA, Bailes GT, Nelson AA, Morris WF, Doak DF. Climate warming threatens the persistence of a community of disturbance-adapted native annual plants. Ecology 2021; 102:e03464. [PMID: 34236709 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3464] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2020] [Revised: 03/29/2021] [Accepted: 05/13/2021] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
Abstract
With ongoing climate change, populations are expected to exhibit shifts in demographic performance that will alter where a species can persist. This presents unique challenges for managing plant populations and may require ongoing interventions, including in situ management or introduction into new locations. However, few studies have examined how climate change may affect plant demographic performance for a suite of species, or how effective management actions could be in mitigating climate change effects. Over the course of two experiments spanning 6 yr and four sites across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, United States, we manipulated temperature, precipitation, and disturbance intensity, and quantified effects on the demography of eight native annual prairie species. Each year we planted seeds and monitored germination, survival, and reproduction. We found that disturbance strongly influenced demographic performance and that seven of the eight species had increasingly poor performance with warmer conditions. Across species and sites, we observed 11% recruitment (the proportion of seeds planted that survived to reproduction) following high disturbance, but just 3.9% and 2.3% under intermediate and low disturbance, respectively. Moreover, mean seed production following high disturbance was often more than tenfold greater than under intermediate and low disturbance. Importantly, most species exhibited precipitous declines in their population growth rates (λ) under warmer-than-ambient experimental conditions and may require more frequent disturbance intervention to sustain populations. Aristida oligantha, a C4 grass, was the only species to have λ increase with warmer conditions. These results suggest that rising temperatures may cause many native annual plant species to decline, highlighting the urgency for adaptive management practices that facilitate their restoration or introduction to newly suitable locations. Frequent and intense disturbances are critical to reduce competitors and promote native annuals' persistence, but even such efforts may prove futile under future climate regimes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul B Reed
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Scott D Bridgham
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | | | - Megan L Peterson
- Plant Biology Department, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, 30606, USA
| | - Bart R Johnson
- Department of Landscape Architecture, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Bitty A Roy
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Graham T Bailes
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Aaron A Nelson
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - William F Morris
- Biology Department, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, 27708, USA
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, 80309, USA
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11
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Castillo Vardaro JA, Bonachela JA, Baker CCM, Pinsky ML, Doak DF, Pringle RM, Tarnita CE. Resource availability and heterogeneity shape the self-organisation of regular spatial patterning. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:1880-1891. [PMID: 34212477 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13822] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2020] [Revised: 01/25/2021] [Accepted: 05/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Explaining large-scale ordered patterns and their effects on ecosystem functioning is a fundamental and controversial challenge in ecology. Here, we coupled empirical and theoretical approaches to explore how competition and spatial heterogeneity govern the regularity of colony dispersion in fungus-farming termites. Individuals from different colonies fought fiercely, and inter-nest distances were greater when nests were large and resources scarce-as expected if competition is strong, large colonies require more resources and foraging area scales with resource availability. Building these principles into a model of inter-colony competition showed that highly ordered patterns emerged under high resource availability and low resource heterogeneity. Analysis of this dynamical model provided novel insights into the mechanisms that modulate pattern regularity and the emergent effects of these patterns on system-wide productivity. Our results show how environmental context shapes pattern formation by social-insect ecosystem engineers, which offers one explanation for the marked variability observed across ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jessica A Castillo Vardaro
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Department of Biological Sciences, San José State University, San Jose, CA, USA
| | - Juan A Bonachela
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Christopher C M Baker
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Malin L Pinsky
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Robert M Pringle
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Corina E Tarnita
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
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12
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Doak DF, Waddle E, Langendorf RE, Louthan AM, Isabelle Chardon N, Dibner RR, Keinath DA, Lombardi E, Steenbock C, Shriver RK, Linares C, Begoña Garcia M, Funk WC, Fitzpatrick SW, Morris WF, DeMarche ML. A critical comparison of integral projection and matrix projection models for demographic analysis. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel F. Doak
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Ellen Waddle
- Environmental Studies Program and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Ryan E. Langendorf
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Allison M. Louthan
- Division of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan Kansas USA
- KS and Biology Department Duke University Durham North Carolina USA
| | | | - Reilly R. Dibner
- Department of Zoology and Physiology University of Wyoming Laramie Wyoming USA
| | - Douglas A. Keinath
- Department of Zoology and Physiology University of Wyoming Laramie Wyoming USA
- Wyoming Ecological Services Field Office United States Fish and Wildlife Service 5353 Yellowstone Road, Suite 308A Cheyenne Wyoming82009USA
| | - Elizabeth Lombardi
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Cornell University Ithaca New York USA
| | - Christopher Steenbock
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | - Robert K. Shriver
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science University of Nevada Reno Nevada USA
| | - Cristina Linares
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio) University of Barcelona Avenida Diagonal 643 Barcelona08028Spain
| | - Maria Begoña Garcia
- Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (CSIC) Avenida Montañana 1005 Zaragoza50059Spain
| | - W. Chris Funk
- Department of Biology Graduate Degree Program in Ecology Colorado State University Fort CollinsColorado USA
| | - Sarah W. Fitzpatrick
- W.K. Kellogg Biological Station Michigan State University Hickory Corners Michigan USA
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13
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DeMarche ML, Bailes G, Hendricks LB, Pfeifer‐Meister L, Reed PB, Bridgham SD, Johnson BR, Shriver R, Waddle E, Wroton H, Doak DF, Roy BA, Morris WF. Latitudinal gradients in population growth do not reflect demographic responses to climate. Ecol Appl 2021; 31:e2242. [PMID: 33098736 PMCID: PMC7988552 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2242] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2020] [Revised: 07/03/2020] [Accepted: 07/07/2020] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Spatial gradients in population growth, such as across latitudinal or elevational gradients, are often assumed to primarily be driven by variation in climate, and are frequently used to infer species' responses to climate change. Here, we use a novel demographic, mixed-model approach to dissect the contributions of climate variables vs. other latitudinal or local site effects on spatiotemporal variation in population performance in three perennial bunchgrasses. For all three species, we find that performance of local populations decreases with warmer and drier conditions, despite latitudinal trends of decreasing population growth toward the cooler and wetter northern portion of each species' range. Thus, latitudinal gradients in performance are not predictive of either local or species-wide responses to climate. This pattern could be common, as many environmental drivers, such as habitat quality or species' interactions, are likely to vary with latitude or elevation, and thus influence or oppose climate responses.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Graham Bailes
- Institute of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of OregonEugeneOregon97403USA
| | | | | | - Paul B. Reed
- Institute of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of OregonEugeneOregon97403USA
| | - Scott D. Bridgham
- Institute of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of OregonEugeneOregon97403USA
| | - Bart R. Johnson
- Department of Landscape ArchitectureUniversity of OregonEugeneOregon97403USA
| | - Robert Shriver
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental ScienceUniversity of NevadaRenoNevada89557USA
| | - Ellen Waddle
- Environmental Studies ProgramUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderColorado80309USA
| | - Hannah Wroton
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology DepartmentUniversity of Colorado BoulderColorado80309USA
| | - Daniel F. Doak
- Environmental Studies ProgramUniversity of Colorado BoulderBoulderColorado80309USA
| | - Bitty A. Roy
- Institute of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of OregonEugeneOregon97403USA
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14
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DeMarche ML, Bailes G, Hendricks LB, Pfeifer-Meister L, Reed PB, Bridgham SD, Johnson BR, Shriver R, Waddle E, Wroton H, Doak DF, Roy BA, Morris WF. Latitudinal gradients in population growth do not reflect demographic responses to climate. Ecol Appl 2021. [PMID: 33098736 DOI: 10.5061/dryad.2rbnzs7m0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Spatial gradients in population growth, such as across latitudinal or elevational gradients, are often assumed to primarily be driven by variation in climate, and are frequently used to infer species' responses to climate change. Here, we use a novel demographic, mixed-model approach to dissect the contributions of climate variables vs. other latitudinal or local site effects on spatiotemporal variation in population performance in three perennial bunchgrasses. For all three species, we find that performance of local populations decreases with warmer and drier conditions, despite latitudinal trends of decreasing population growth toward the cooler and wetter northern portion of each species' range. Thus, latitudinal gradients in performance are not predictive of either local or species-wide responses to climate. This pattern could be common, as many environmental drivers, such as habitat quality or species' interactions, are likely to vary with latitude or elevation, and thus influence or oppose climate responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Megan L DeMarche
- Plant Biology Department, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, 30606, USA
| | - Graham Bailes
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Lauren B Hendricks
- Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | | | - Paul B Reed
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Scott D Bridgham
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Bart R Johnson
- Department of Landscape Architecture, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Robert Shriver
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada, 89557, USA
| | - Ellen Waddle
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, 80309, USA
| | - Hannah Wroton
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Department, University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado, 80309, USA
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, 80309, USA
| | - Bitty A Roy
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - William F Morris
- Biology Department, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, 27710, USA
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15
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Oldfather MF, Koontz MJ, Doak DF, Ackerly DD. Range dynamics mediated by compensatory life stage responses to experimental climate manipulations. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:772-780. [PMID: 33559296 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13693] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2020] [Accepted: 01/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
The expectations of polar or upslope distributional shifts of species ranges in response to warming climate conditions have been recently questioned. Diverse responses of different life stages to changing temperature and moisture regimes may alter these predicted range dynamics. Furthermore, the climate driver(s) influencing demographic rates, and the contribution of each demographic rate to population growth rate (λ), may shift across a species range. We investigated these demographic effects by experimentally manipulating climate and measuring responses of λ in nine populations spanning the elevation range of an alpine plant (Ivesia lycopodioides). Populations exhibited stable growth rates (λ ~ 1) under naturally wet conditions and declining rates (λ < 1) under naturally dry conditions. However, opposing vital rate responses to experimental heating and watering lead to negligible or negative effects on population stability. These findings indicate that life stage-specific responses to changing climate can disrupt the current relationships between population stability and climate across species ranges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meagan F Oldfather
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA.,Department of Integrative Biology, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Michael J Koontz
- Earth Lab, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - David D Ackerly
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.,Department of Environmental Science Policy and Management, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.,Jepson Herbarium, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
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16
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Zonana DM, Gee JM, Breed MD, Doak DF. Dynamic shifts in social network structure and composition within a breeding hybrid population. J Anim Ecol 2020; 90:197-211. [PMID: 32772372 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2019] [Accepted: 06/24/2020] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Abstract
Mating behaviour and the timing of reproduction can inhibit genetic exchange between closely related species; however, these reproductive barriers are challenging to measure within natural populations. Social network analysis provides promising tools for studying the social context of hybridization, and the exchange of genetic variation, more generally. We test how social networks within a hybrid population of California Callipepla californica and Gambel's quail Callipepla gambelii change over discrete periods of a breeding season. We assess patterns of phenotypic and genotypic assortment, and ask whether altered associations between individuals (association rewiring), or changes to the composition of the population (individual turnover) drive network dynamics. We use genetic data to test whether social associations and relatedness between individuals correlate with patterns of parentage within the hybrid population. To achieve these aims, we combine RFID association data, phenotypic data and genomic measures with social network analyses. We adopt methods from the ecological network literature to quantify shifts in network structure and to partition changes into those due to individual turnover and association rewiring. We integrate genomic data into networks as node-level attributes (ancestry) and edges (relatedness, parentage) to test links between social and parentage networks. We show that rewiring of associations between individuals that persist across network periods, rather than individual turnover, drives the majority of the changes in network structure throughout the breeding season, and that the traits involved in phenotypic/genotypic assortment were highly dynamic over time. Social networks were randomly assorted based on genetic ancestry, suggesting weak behavioural reproductive isolation within this hybrid population. Finally, we show that the strength of associations within the social network, but not levels of genetic relatedness, predicts patterns of parentage. Social networks play an important role in population processes such as the transmission of disease and information, yet there has been less focus on how networks influence the exchange of genetic variation. By integrating analyses of social structure, phenotypic assortment and reproductive outcomes within a hybrid zone, we demonstrate the utility of social networks for analysing links between social context and gene flow within wild populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- David M Zonana
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Jennifer M Gee
- James San Jacinto Mountains Reserve, University of California - Riverside, University of California Natural Reserve System, Idyllwild, CA, USA
| | - Michael D Breed
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
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17
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Bakker VJ, Sillett TS, Boyce WM, Doak DF, Vickers TW, Reisen WK, Cohen BS, Hallworth MT, Morrison SA. Front Cover. DIVERS DISTRIB 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13151] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
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18
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Bakker VJ, Sillett TS, Boyce WM, Doak DF, Vickers TW, Reisen WK, Cohen BS, Hallworth MT, Morrison SA. Translocation with targeted vaccination is the most effective strategy to protect an island endemic bird threatened by West Nile virus. DIVERS DISTRIB 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - T. Scott Sillett
- Migratory Bird Center Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park Washington District of Columbia USA
| | | | - Daniel F. Doak
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | | | | | | | - Michael T. Hallworth
- Migratory Bird Center Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park Washington District of Columbia USA
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19
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Baker CCM, Castillo Vardaro JA, Doak DF, Pansu J, Puissant J, Pringle RM, Tarnita CE. Spatial patterning of soil microbial communities created by fungus-farming termites. Mol Ecol 2020; 29:4487-4501. [PMID: 32761930 DOI: 10.1111/mec.15585] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2020] [Revised: 07/24/2020] [Accepted: 07/31/2020] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
Spatially overdispersed mounds of fungus-farming termites (Macrotermitinae) are hotspots of nutrient availability and primary productivity in tropical savannas, creating spatial heterogeneity in communities and ecosystem functions. These termites influence the local availability of nutrients in part by redistributing nutrients across the landscape, but the links between termite ecosystem engineering and the soil microbes that are the metabolic agents of nutrient cycling are little understood. We used DNA metabarcoding of soils from Odontotermes montanus mounds to examine the influence of termites on soil microbial communities in a semi-arid Kenyan savanna. We found that bacterial and fungal communities were compositionally distinct in termite-mound topsoils relative to the surrounding savanna, and that bacterial communities were more diverse on mounds. The higher microbial alpha and beta diversity associated with mounds created striking spatial patterning in microbial community composition, and boosted landscape-scale microbial richness and diversity. Selected enzyme assays revealed consistent differences in potential enzymatic activity, suggesting links between termite-induced heterogeneity in microbial community composition and the spatial distribution of ecosystem functions. We conducted a large-scale field experiment in which we attempted to simulate termites' effects on microbes by fertilizing mound-sized patches; this altered both bacterial and fungal communities, but in a different way than natural mounds. Elevated levels of inorganic nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium may help to explain the distinctive fungal communities in termite-mound soils, but cannot account for the distinctive bacterial communities associated with mounds.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher C M Baker
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Mpala Research Centre, Nanyuki, Kenya
| | - Jessica A Castillo Vardaro
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Mpala Research Centre, Nanyuki, Kenya
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Mpala Research Centre, Nanyuki, Kenya.,Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Johan Pansu
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | | | - Robert M Pringle
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Mpala Research Centre, Nanyuki, Kenya
| | - Corina E Tarnita
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Mpala Research Centre, Nanyuki, Kenya
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20
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Langendorf RE, Doak DF. Can Community Structure Causally Determine Dynamics of Constituent Species? A Test Using a Host-Parasite Community. Am Nat 2019; 194:E66-E80. [PMID: 31553220 DOI: 10.1086/704182] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
Structures of communities have been widely studied with the assumption that they not only are a useful bookkeeping tool but also can causally influence dynamics of the populations from which they emerge. However, convincing tests of this assumption have remained elusive because generally the only way to alter a community property is by manipulating its constituent populations, thereby preventing independent measurements of effects on those populations. There is a growing body of evidence that methods like convergent cross-mapping (CCM) can be used to make inferences about causal interactions using state space reconstructions of coupled time series, a method that relies on only observational data. Here we show that CCM can be used to test the causal effects of community properties using a well-studied Slovakian rodent-ectoparasite community. CCM identified causal drivers across the organizational scales of this community, including evidence that host dynamics were influenced by the degree to which the community at large was connected and clustered. Our findings add to the growing literature on the importance of community structures in disease dynamics and argue for a broader use of causal inference in the analysis of community dynamics.
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21
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Zonana DM, Gee JM, Bridge ES, Breed MD, Doak DF. Assessing Behavioral Associations in a Hybrid Zone through Social Network Analysis: Complex Assortative Behaviors Structure Associations in a Hybrid Quail Population. Am Nat 2019; 193:852-865. [PMID: 31094596 DOI: 10.1086/703158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
Behavior can strongly influence rates and patterns of hybridization between animal populations and species. Yet few studies have examined reproductive behaviors in natural hybrid zones within the fine-scale social context in which they naturally occur. We use radio-frequency identification tags with social network analyses to test whether phenotypic similarity in plumage and mass correlate with social behavior throughout a breeding season in a California and Gambel's quail hybrid zone. We use a novel approach to partition phenotypic variation in a way that does not confound differences between sexes and species, and we illustrate the complex ways that phenotype and behavior structure the social environment, mating opportunities, and male-male associations. Associations within the admixed population were random with respect to species-specific plumage but showed strong patterns of assortment based on sexually dimorphic plumage, monomorphic plumage, and mass. Weak behavioral reproductive isolation in this admixed population may be the result of complex patterns of phenotypic assortment based on multiple traits rather than a lack of phenotypic discrimination. More generally, our results support the utility of social network analyses for analyzing behavioral factors affecting genetic exchange between populations and species.
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22
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Waddle E, Piedrahita LR, Hall ES, Kendziorski G, Morris WF, DeMarche ML, Doak DF. Asynchrony in individual and subpopulation fecundity stabilizes reproductive output of an alpine plant population. Ecology 2019; 100:e02639. [DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2639] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2018] [Revised: 01/07/2019] [Accepted: 01/16/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ellen Waddle
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado 80302 USA
| | - Lucas R. Piedrahita
- Biology Department Appalachian State University Boone North Carolina 28608 USA
| | - Elijah S. Hall
- Biology Department Juniata College Huntingdon Pennsylvania 16652 USA
| | - Grace Kendziorski
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado 80302 USA
| | - William F. Morris
- Department of Biology Duke University Durham North Carolina 27708 USA
| | - Megan L. DeMarche
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado 80302 USA
| | - Daniel F. Doak
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado 80302 USA
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23
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Affiliation(s)
- Reilly R. Dibner
- Program in Ecology and Haub School of Environment and Natural Resources University of Wyoming Bim Kendall House, 804 E. Fremont Street Laramie Wyoming 82070 USA
| | - Megan L. DeMarche
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado 80309 USA
| | | | - Daniel F. Doak
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado 80309 USA
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24
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Peterson ML, Doak DF, Morris WF. Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 2019; 25:775-793. [PMID: 30597712 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14562] [Citation(s) in RCA: 93] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/18/2018] [Revised: 12/06/2018] [Accepted: 12/25/2018] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species' distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographic ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade-off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to nonclimatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species-level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Megan L Peterson
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado
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25
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Montero‐Serra I, Garrabou J, Doak DF, Ledoux J, Linares C. Marine protected areas enhance structural complexity but do not buffer the consequences of ocean warming for an overexploited precious coral. J Appl Ecol 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13321] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ignasi Montero‐Serra
- Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBIO) Universitat de Barcelona Barcelona Spain
| | - Joaquim Garrabou
- Institut de Ciències del Mar CSIC Barcelona Spain
- Aix Marseille Université Université de Toulon CNRS, IRD, MIO Marseille France
| | - Daniel F. Doak
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado Boulder Colorado
| | - Jean‐Baptiste Ledoux
- Institut de Ciències del Mar CSIC Barcelona Spain
- CIIMAR/CIMAR Centro Interdisciplinar de Investigação Marinha e Ambiental Universidade do Porto Porto Portugal
| | - Cristina Linares
- Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBIO) Universitat de Barcelona Barcelona Spain
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26
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Brodie JF, Redford KH, Doak DF. Ecological Function Analysis: Incorporating Species Roles into Conservation. Trends Ecol Evol 2018; 33:840-850. [PMID: 30292431 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2018] [Revised: 08/30/2018] [Accepted: 08/30/2018] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
Abstract
Effective conservation strategies must ensure that species remain not just extant, but able to maintain key roles in species interactions and in the maintenance of communities and ecosystems. Such ecological functions, however, have not been well incorporated into management or policy. We present a framework for quantifying ecological function that is complementary to population viability analysis (PVA) and that allows function to be integrated into strategic planning processes. Ecological function analysis (EFA) focuses on preventing secondary extinctions and maintaining ecosystem structure, biogeochemical processes, and resiliency. EFA can use a range of modeling approaches and, because most species interactions are relatively weak, EFA needs to be performed for relatively few species or functions, making it a realistic way to improve conservation management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jedediah F Brodie
- Division of Biological Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59802, USA; Wildlife Biology Program, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59802, USA.
| | - Kent H Redford
- Archipelago Consulting, Portland, ME 04112, USA; Department of Environmental Studies, University of New England, Biddeford, ME 04005, USA; Environmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane 4222, Australia
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
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27
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Peterson ML, Doak DF, Morris WF. Both life-history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range-wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24:1614-1625. [PMID: 29155464 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13990] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2017] [Revised: 10/24/2017] [Accepted: 11/05/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species-wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life-history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species-wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species' range-not only those at the trailing range edge-could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species' latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade-off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species' ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest potential impacts of climate change on species' abundance and distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Megan L Peterson
- Environmental studies program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental studies program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
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28
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Montero-Serra I, Linares C, Doak DF, Ledoux JB, Garrabou J. Strong linkages between depth, longevity and demographic stability across marine sessile species. Proc Biol Sci 2018; 285:rspb.2017.2688. [PMID: 29491172 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.2688] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2017] [Accepted: 02/01/2018] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the role of the environment in shaping the evolution of life histories remains a major challenge in ecology and evolution. We synthesize longevity patterns of marine sessile species and find strong positive relationships between depth and maximum lifespan across multiple sessile marine taxa, including corals, bivalves, sponges and macroalgae. Using long-term demographic data on marine sessile and terrestrial plant species, we show that extreme longevity leads to strongly dampened population dynamics. We also used detailed analyses of Mediterranean red coral, with a maximum lifespan of 532 years, to explore the life-history patterns of long-lived taxa and the vulnerability to external mortality sources that these characteristics can create. Depth-related environmental gradients-including light, food availability, temperature and disturbance intensity-drive highly predictable distributions of life histories that, in turn, have predictable ecological consequences for the dynamics of natural populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- I Montero-Serra
- Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals, Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBIO), Universitat de Barcelona, Avinguda Diagonal 643, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
| | - C Linares
- Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals, Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBIO), Universitat de Barcelona, Avinguda Diagonal 643, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
| | - D F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - J B Ledoux
- Institut de Ciències del Mar, CSIC, Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain.,CIIMAR/CIMAR, Centro Interdisciplinar de Investigação Marinha e Ambiental, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - J Garrabou
- Institut de Ciències del Mar, CSIC, Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain.,Aix-Marseille University, Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography (MIO), Université de Toulon, CNRS/IRD, Marseille, France
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29
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Irons RD, Harding Scurr A, Rose AP, Hagelin JC, Blake T, Doak DF. Wind and rain are the primary climate factors driving changing phenology of an aerial insectivore. Proc Biol Sci 2018; 284:rspb.2017.0412. [PMID: 28446701 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.0412] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2017] [Accepted: 03/22/2017] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
While the ecological effects of climate change have been widely observed, most efforts to document these impacts in terrestrial systems have concentrated on the impacts of temperature. We used tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nest observations from two widely separated sites in central Alaska to examine the aspects of climate affecting breeding phenology at the northern extent of this species' range. We found that two measures of breeding phenology, annual lay and hatch dates, are more strongly predicted by windiness and precipitation than by temperature. At our longest-monitored site, breeding phenology has advanced at nearly twice the rate seen in more southern populations, and these changes correspond to long-term declines in windiness. Overall, adverse spring climate conditions known to negatively impact foraging success of swallows (wet, windy weather) appear to influence breeding phenology more than variation in temperature. Separate analyses show that short windy periods significantly delay initiation of individual clutches within years. While past reviews have emphasized that increasing variability in climate conditions may create physiological and ecological challenges for natural populations, we find that long-term reductions in inclement weather corresponded to earlier reproduction in one of our study populations. To better predict climate change impacts, ecologists need to more carefully test effects of multiple climate variables, including some, like windiness, that may be of paramount importance to some species, but have rarely been considered as strong drivers of ecological responses to climate alteration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel D Irons
- University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Threatened, Endangered and Diversity Program, Fairbanks, AK, USA.,Alaska Songbird Institute, Fairbanks, AK, USA
| | | | - Alexandra P Rose
- University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Threatened, Endangered and Diversity Program, Fairbanks, AK, USA
| | - Julie C Hagelin
- University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Threatened, Endangered and Diversity Program, Fairbanks, AK, USA
| | | | - Daniel F Doak
- University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Threatened, Endangered and Diversity Program, Fairbanks, AK, USA
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30
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Genovart M, Doak DF, Igual JM, Sponza S, Kralj J, Oro D. Varying demographic impacts of different fisheries on three Mediterranean seabird species. Glob Chang Biol 2017; 23:3012-3029. [PMID: 28231421 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13670] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2016] [Accepted: 02/01/2017] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Fisheries have an enormous economic importance, but reconciling their socio-economic features with the conservation and sustainability of marine ecosystems presents major challenges. Bycatch mortality from fisheries is clearly among the most serious global threats for marine ecosystems, affecting a wide range of top predators. Recent estimates report ca. 200,000 seabirds killed annually by bycatch in European waters. However, there is an urgent need to rigorously estimate actual mortality rates and quantify effects of bycatch on populations. The Mediterranean Sea is one of the most impacted regions. Here, we estimate for the first time both bycatch mortality rates and their population-level effects on three endemic and vulnerable Mediterranean taxa: Scopoli's shearwater, Mediterranean shag, and Audouin's gull, that die in different types of fishing gears: longlines, gillnets and sport trolling, respectively. We use multi-event capture-recapture modelling to estimate crucial demographic parameters, including the probabilities of dying in different fishing gears. We then build stochastic demography models to forecast the viability of the populations under different management scenarios. Longline bycatch was particularly severe for adults of Scopoli's shearwaters and Audouin's gulls (ca. 28% and 23% of total mortality, respectively) and also for immature gulls (ca. 90% of mortality). Gillnets had a lower impact, but were still responsible for ca. 9% of juvenile mortality on shags, whereas sport trolling only slightly influenced total mortality in gulls. Bycatch mortality has high population-level impacts in all three species, with shearwaters having the highest extinction risk under current mortality rates. Different life-history traits and compensatory demographic mechanisms between the three species are probably influencing the different bycatch impact: for shearwaters, urgent conservation actions are required to ensure the viability of their populations. Results will be very useful for guiding future seabird conservation policies and moving towards an ecosystem-based approach to sustainable fisheries management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meritxell Genovart
- Population Ecology Group, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Esporles, Spain
- Environmental Studies Program, 397 UCB University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
- CEAB (CSIC), Girona, Spain
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, 397 UCB University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | | | - Stefano Sponza
- Department of Mathematics and Geosciences, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy
| | | | - Daniel Oro
- Population Ecology Group, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Esporles, Spain
- CEAB (CSIC), Girona, Spain
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31
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Irons RD, Scurr AH, Rose AP, Hagelin JC, Blake T, Doak DF. Correction to: Wind and rain are the primary climate factors driving changing phenology of an aerial insectivore. Proc Biol Sci 2017; 284:rspb.2017.1168. [PMID: 28659454 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.1168] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
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32
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Dibner RR, Doak DF, Murphy M. Discrepancies in occupancy and abundance approaches to identifying and protecting habitat for an at-risk species. Ecol Evol 2017; 7:5692-5702. [PMID: 29085621 PMCID: PMC5655793 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2016] [Revised: 04/18/2017] [Accepted: 04/25/2017] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Predicting how environmental factors affect the distribution of species is a fundamental goal of conservation biology. Conservation biologists rely on species distribution and abundance models to identify key habitat characteristics for species. Occupancy modeling is frequently promoted as a practical alternative to use of abundance in identifying habitat quality. While occupancy and abundance are potentially governed by different limiting factors operating at different scales, few studies have directly compared predictive models for these approaches in the same system. We evaluated how much occupancy and abundance are driven by the same environmental factors for a species of conservation concern, the greater short-horned lizard (Phrynosoma hernandesi). Occupancy was most strongly dictated by precipitation, temperature, and density of ant mounds. While these factors were also in the best-supported predictive models for lizard abundance, the magnitude of the effects varied, with the sign of the effect changing for temperature and precipitation. These discrepancies show that while occupancy modeling can be an efficient approach for conservation planning, predictors of occupancy probability should not automatically be equated with predictors of population abundance. Understanding the differences in factors that control occupancy versus abundance can help us to identify habitat requirements and mitigate the loss of threatened species.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program University of Colorado, Boulder Boulder CO USA
| | - Melanie Murphy
- Program in Ecology University of Wyoming Laramie WY USA.,Department of Ecosystem Science and Management Program in Ecology University of Wyoming Laramie WY USA
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33
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Abbott RE, Doak DF, Peterson ML. Portfolio effects, climate change, and the persistence of small populations: analyses on the rare plant Saussurea weberi. Ecology 2017; 98:1071-1081. [PMID: 28112402 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1738] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2016] [Revised: 11/21/2016] [Accepted: 01/06/2017] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
The mechanisms that stabilize small populations in the face of environmental variation are crucial to their long-term persistence. Building from diversity-stability concepts in community ecology, within-population diversity is gaining attention as an important component of population stability. Genetic and microhabitat variation within populations can generate diverse responses to common environmental fluctuations, dampening temporal variability across the population as a whole through portfolio effects. Yet, the potential for portfolio effects to operate at small scales within populations or to change with systematic environmental shifts, such as climate change, remain largely unexplored. We tracked the abundance of a rare alpine perennial plant, Saussurea weberi, in 49 1-m2 plots within a single population over 20 yr. We estimated among-plot correlations in log annual growth rate to test for population-level synchrony and quantify portfolio effects across the 20-yr study period and also in 5-yr subsets based on June temperature quartiles. Asynchrony among plots, due to different plot-level responses to June temperature, reduced overall fluctuations in abundance and the probability of decline in population models, even when accounting for the effects of density dependence on dynamics. However, plots became more synchronous and portfolio effects decreased during the warmest years of the study, suggesting that future climate warming may erode stabilizing mechanisms in populations of this rare plant.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ronald E Abbott
- Independent Researcher, P.O. Box 1431, Greeley, Colorado, 80632, USA
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, 4001 Discovery Drive, Boulder, Colorado, 80309, USA
| | - Megan L Peterson
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, 4001 Discovery Drive, Boulder, Colorado, 80309, USA
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Montero-Serra I, Garrabou J, Doak DF, Figuerola L, Hereu B, Ledoux JB, Linares C. Accounting for Life-History Strategies and Timescales in Marine Restoration. Conserv Lett 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12341] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Ignasi Montero-Serra
- Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals; Universitat de Barcelona; Avda. Diagonal 643 08028 Barcelona Spain
| | - Joaquim Garrabou
- Institut de Ciències del Mar; CSIC; Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta 37-49 08003 Barcelona Spain
- Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography (MIO), UM 110 CNRS/IRD, Aix Marseille Universite, Universite de Toulon, Campus de Luminy-Oceanomed; Batiment Mediterranee; 13288 Marseille Cedex 09 France
| | - Daniel F. Doak
- Environmental Studies Program; University of Colorado at Boulder; Boulder CO 80309 USA
| | - Laura Figuerola
- Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals; Universitat de Barcelona; Avda. Diagonal 643 08028 Barcelona Spain
| | - Bernat Hereu
- Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals; Universitat de Barcelona; Avda. Diagonal 643 08028 Barcelona Spain
| | - Jean-Baptiste Ledoux
- Institut de Ciències del Mar; CSIC; Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta 37-49 08003 Barcelona Spain
- CIIMAR/CIMAR, Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research; University of Porto; Rua dos Bragas 177 4050-123 Porto Portugal
| | - Cristina Linares
- Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals; Universitat de Barcelona; Avda. Diagonal 643 08028 Barcelona Spain
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Novak M, Yeakel JD, Noble AE, Doak DF, Emmerson M, Estes JA, Jacob U, Tinker MT, Wootton JT. Characterizing Species Interactions to Understand Press Perturbations: What Is the Community Matrix? Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 2016. [DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-032416-010215] [Citation(s) in RCA: 72] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
The community matrix is among ecology's most important mathematical abstractions, formally encapsulating the interconnected network of effects that species have on one another's populations. Despite its importance, the term “community matrix” has been applied to multiple types of matrices that have differing interpretations. This has hindered the application of theory for understanding community structure and perturbation responses. Here, we clarify the correspondence and distinctions among the Interaction matrix, the Alpha matrix, and the Jacobian matrix, terms that are frequently used interchangeably as well as synonymously with the term “community matrix.” We illustrate how these matrices correspond to different ways of characterizing interaction strengths, how they permit insights regarding different types of press perturbations, and how these are related by a simple scaling relationship. Connections to additional interaction strength characterizations encapsulated by the Beta matrix, the Gamma matrix, and the Removal matrix are also discussed. Our synthesis highlights the empirical challenges that remain in using these tools to understand actual communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Novak
- Department of Integrative Biology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331
| | - Justin D. Yeakel
- School of Natural Sciences, University of California, Merced, California 95343
- Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501
| | - Andrew E. Noble
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, California 95616
| | - Daniel F. Doak
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309
| | - Mark Emmerson
- School of Biological Sciences, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast BT7 1NN, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom
| | - James A. Estes
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California 95060
| | - Ute Jacob
- Department of Biology, University of Hamburg, D-22767 Hamburg, Germany
| | - M. Timothy Tinker
- Western Ecological Research Center, US Geological Survey, Santa Cruz, California 95060
| | - J. Timothy Wootton
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637
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Abstract
The late Pleistocene extinction of so many large-bodied vertebrates has been variously attributed to two general causes: rapid climate change and the effects of humans as they spread from the Old World to previously uninhabited continents and islands. Many large-bodied vertebrates, especially large apex predators, maintain their associated ecosystems through top-down forcing processes, especially trophic cascades, and megaherbivores also exert an array of strong indirect effects on their communities. Thus, a third possibility for at least some of the Pleistocene extinctions is that they occurred through habitat changes resulting from the loss of these other keystone species. Here we explore the plausibility of this mechanism, using information on sea otters, kelp forests, and the recent extinction of Steller's sea cows from the Commander Islands. Large numbers of sea cows occurred in the Commander Islands at the time of their discovery by Europeans in 1741. Although extinction of these last remaining sea cows during early years of the Pacific maritime fur trade is widely thought to be a consequence of direct human overkill, we show that it is also a probable consequence of the loss of sea otters and the co-occurring loss of kelp, even if not a single sea cow had been killed directly by humans. This example supports the hypothesis that the directly caused extinctions of a few large vertebrates in the late Pleistocene may have resulted in the coextinction of numerous other species.
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Affiliation(s)
- James A Estes
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95060;
| | - Alexander Burdin
- Kamchatka Branch of Pacific Geographical Institute, Russian Academy of Science, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, 683000, Russia
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309
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Villellas J, Doak DF, García MB, Morris WF. Demographic compensation among populations: what is it, how does it arise and what are its implications? Ecol Lett 2015; 18:1139-1152. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.12505] [Citation(s) in RCA: 74] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2015] [Revised: 05/12/2015] [Accepted: 08/04/2015] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jesús Villellas
- Department of Ecology and Genetics; Uppsala University; Uppsala 75236 Sweden
| | - Daniel F. Doak
- Environmental Studies Program; University of Colorado Boulder; Boulder CO 80309 USA
| | - María B. García
- Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (IPE-CSIC); Apdo. 13034 50080 Zaragoza Spain
| | - William F. Morris
- Department of Ecology and Genetics; Uppsala University; Uppsala 75236 Sweden
- Department of Biology; Duke University; Box 90338 Durham NC 27708-0338 USA
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Yandow LH, Chalfoun AD, Doak DF. Climate Tolerances and Habitat Requirements Jointly Shape the Elevational Distribution of the American Pika (Ochotona princeps), with Implications for Climate Change Effects. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0131082. [PMID: 26244851 PMCID: PMC4526653 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2014] [Accepted: 05/28/2015] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Some of the most compelling examples of ecological responses to climate change are elevational range shifts of individual species, which have been observed throughout the world. A growing body of evidence, however, suggests substantial mediation of simple range shifts due to climate change by other limiting factors. Understanding limiting factors for a species within different contexts, therefore, is critical for predicting responses to climate change. The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is an ideal species for investigating distributions in relation to climate because of their unusual and well-understood natural history as well as observed shifts to higher elevation in parts of their range. We tested three hypotheses for the climatic or habitat characteristics that may limit pika presence and abundance: summer heat, winter snowpack, and forage availability. We performed these tests using an index of pika abundance gathered in a region where environmental influences on pika distribution have not been well-characterized. We estimated relative pika abundance via scat surveys and quantified climatic and habitat characteristics across two North-Central Rocky Mountain Ranges, the Wind River and Bighorn ranges in Wyoming, USA. Pika scat density was highest at mid-elevations and increased linearly with forage availability in both ranges. Scat density also increased with temperatures conducive to forage plant growth, and showed a unimodal relationship with the number of days below -5°C, which is modulated by insulating snowpack. Our results provide support for both the forage availability and winter snowpack hypotheses. Especially in montane systems, considering the context-dependent nature of climate effects across regions and elevations as well as interactions between climatic and other critical habitat characteristics, will be essential for predicting future species distributions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leah H. Yandow
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, 1000 East University Avenue, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, United States of America
- Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology (3166), University of Wyoming, 1000 East University Avenue, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Anna D. Chalfoun
- U.S. Geological Survey Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology (3166), University of Wyoming, 1000 East University Avenue, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, United States of America
| | - Daniel F. Doak
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, 1000 East University Avenue, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, United States of America
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, 1201 17 St., 397 UCB, Boulder, Colorado, 80309, United States of America
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Doak DF, Himes Boor GK, Bakker VJ, Morris WF, Louthan A, Morrison SA, Stanley A, Crowder LB. Recommendations for Improving Recovery Criteria under the US Endangered Species Act. Bioscience 2015. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biu215] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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40
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Doak DF, Cutler K. Van Manenet al.,Doth Protest too Much: New Analyses of the Yellowstone Grizzly Population Confirm the Need to Reevaluate Past Population Trends. Conserv Lett 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel F. Doak
- Environmental Studies Program Attn. 215, University of Colorado; Boulder CO USA
| | - Kerry Cutler
- Environmental Science; Policy & Management 130 Mulford Hall; UC Berkeley USA
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41
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Doak DF, Bakker VJ, Goldstein BE, Hale B. Moving forward with effective goals and methods for conservation: a reply to Marvier and Kareiva. Trends Ecol Evol 2014; 29:132-3. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2014.01.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2013] [Revised: 01/23/2014] [Accepted: 01/24/2014] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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Louthan AM, Doak DF, Goheen JR, Palmer TM, Pringle RM. Mechanisms of plant-plant interactions: concealment from herbivores is more important than abiotic-stress mediation in an African savannah. Proc Biol Sci 2014; 281:20132647. [PMID: 24523267 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.2647] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Recent work on facilitative plant-plant interactions has emphasized the importance of neighbours' amelioration of abiotic stress, but the facilitative effects of neighbours in reducing plant apparency to herbivores have received less attention. Whereas theory on stress reduction predicts that competition should be more important in less stressful conditions, with facilitation becoming more important in harsh environments, apparency theory suggests that facilitation should be greater in the presence of herbivores, where it is disadvantageous to be conspicuous regardless of abiotic stress level. We tested the relative strength of neighbours' stress reduction versus apparency reduction on survival, growth, reproduction and lifetime fitness of Hibiscus meyeri, a common forb in central Kenya, using neighbour removals conducted inside and outside large-herbivore exclosures replicated in arid and mesic sites. In the absence of herbivores, neighbours competed with H. meyeri in mesic areas and facilitated H. meyeri in arid areas, as predicted by stress-reduction mechanisms. By contrast, neighbours facilitated H. meyeri in the presence of herbivory, regardless of aridity level, consistent with plant apparency. Our results show that the facilitative effects arising from plant apparency are stronger than the effects arising from abiotic stress reduction in this system, suggesting that plant-apparency effects may be particularly important in systems with extant large-herbivore communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Allison M Louthan
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado at Boulder, , Boulder, CO 80309, USA, Mpala Research Centre, , PO Box 555, Nanyuki 10400, Kenya, Program in Ecology, Department of Botany, University of Wyoming, , Laramie, WY 82070, USA, Program in Ecology, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, , Laramie, WY 82070, USA, Department of Biology, University of Florida, , Gainesville, FL 32611, USA, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, , Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
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Crone EE, Ellis MM, Morris WF, Stanley A, Bell T, Bierzychudek P, Ehrlén J, Kaye TN, Knight TM, Lesica P, Oostermeijer G, Quintana-Ascencio PF, Ticktin T, Valverde T, Williams JL, Doak DF, Ganesan R, McEachern K, Thorpe AS, Menges ES. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations. Conserv Biol 2013; 27:968-978. [PMID: 23565966 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2012] [Accepted: 12/08/2012] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth E Crone
- Harvard Forest, Harvard University, 324 N Main Street, Petersham, MA, 01366, U.S.A..
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel F. Doak
- Environmental Studies Program Attn. 215; University of Colorado; Boulder CO 80309 USA
| | - Kerry Cutler
- Environmental Science; Policy & Management 130 Mulford Hall, UC Berkeley; Berkeley CA 94720 USA
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Doak DF, Bakker VJ, Vickers W. Using population viability criteria to assess strategies to minimize disease threats for an endangered carnivore. Conserv Biol 2013; 27:303-314. [PMID: 23521669 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2010] [Accepted: 10/25/2011] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Outbreaks of infectious disease represent serious threats to the viability of many vertebrate populations, but few studies have included quantitative evaluations of alternative approaches to the management of disease. The most prevalent management approach is monitoring for and rapid response to an epizootic. An alternative is vaccination of a subset of the free-living population (i.e., a "vaccinated core") such that some individuals are partially or fully immune in the event of an epizootic. We developed a simulation model describing epizootic dynamics, which we then embedded in a demographic simulation to assess these alternative approaches to managing rabies epizootics in the island fox (Urocyon littoralis), a species composed of only 6 small populations on the California Channel Islands. Although the monitor and respond approach was superior to the vaccinated-core approach for some transmission models and parameter values, this type of reactive management did not protect the population from rabies under many disease-transmission assumptions. In contrast, a logistically feasible program of prophylactic vaccination for part of the wild population yielded low extinction probabilities across all likely disease-transmission scenarios, even with recurrent disease introductions. Our use of a single metric of successful management-probability of extreme endangerment (i.e., quasi extinction)-to compare very different management approaches allowed an objective assessment of alternative strategies for controlling the threats posed by infectious disease outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, U.S.A..
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46
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Ellis MM, Williams JL, Lesica P, Bell TJ, Bierzychudek P, Bowles M, Crone EE, Doak DF, Ehrlén J, Ellis-Adam A, McEachern K, Ganesan R, Latham P, Luijten S, Kaye TN, Knight TM, Menges ES, Morris WF, Nijs HD, Oostermeijer G, Quintana-Ascencio PF, Shelly JS, Stanley A, Thorpe A, Ticktin T, Valverde T, Weekley CW. Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations. Ecology 2012. [DOI: 10.1890/11-1052.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Martha M. Ellis
- Wildlife Biology Program, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana 59812 USA
| | - Jennifer L. Williams
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, California 93101 USA
| | - Peter Lesica
- Division of Biological Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana 59812 USA
| | - Timothy J. Bell
- Department of Biological Sciences, Chicago State University, 9501 S King Drive, Chicago, Illinois 60628 USA
| | - Paulette Bierzychudek
- Biology Department, Lewis and Clark College, 0615 S.W. Palatine Hill Road, Portland, Oregon 97219 USA
| | - Marlin Bowles
- The Morton Arboretum, 4100 Illinois Route 53, Lisle, Illinois 60532 USA
| | - Elizabeth E. Crone
- Harvard University, Harvard Forest, 324 North Main Street, Petersham, Massachusetts 01366 USA
| | - Daniel F. Doak
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071 USA
| | - Johan Ehrlén
- Department of Botany, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Albertine Ellis-Adam
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098 XH, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Kathryn McEachern
- USGS-BRD-WERC, Channel Islands Field Station, 1901 Spinnaker Drive, Ventura, California 93001 USA
| | - Rengaian Ganesan
- Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Royal Enclave, Sriramapura, Jakkur Post, Bangalore 560064, India
| | - Penelope Latham
- National Park Service, Pacific West Region, 909 First Avenue, Seattle, Washington 98104 USA
| | - Sheila Luijten
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098 XH, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Thomas N. Kaye
- Institute for Applied Ecology, P.O. Box 2855, Corvallis, Oregon 97339 USA
| | - Tiffany M. Knight
- Department of Biology, Washington University in St. Louis, One Brookings Drive, Box 1137, St. Louis, Missouri 63130 USA
| | - Eric S. Menges
- Archbold Biological Station, P.O. Box 2057, Lake Placid, Florida 33862 USA
| | - William F. Morris
- Biology Department, Duke University, Box 90338 Durham, North Carolina 27708 USA
| | - Hans den Nijs
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098 XH, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Gerard Oostermeijer
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098 XH, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Pedro F. Quintana-Ascencio
- Department of Biology, University of Central Florida, 4000 Central Florida Boulevard, Orlando, Florida 32816 USA
| | - J. Stephen Shelly
- U.S. Forest Service, Region 1, P.O. Box 7669, Missoula, Montana 59807 USA
| | - Amanda Stanley
- Institute for Applied Ecology, P.O. Box 2855, Corvallis, Oregon 97339 USA
| | - Andrea Thorpe
- Institute for Applied Ecology, P.O. Box 2855, Corvallis, Oregon 97339 USA
| | - Tamara Ticktin
- Botany Department, University of Hawai‘i at Manoa, 3190 Maile Way, Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96822 USA
| | - Teresa Valverde
- Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, México D.F. 04510 México
| | - Carl W. Weekley
- Archbold Biological Station, P.O. Box 2057, Lake Placid, Florida 33862 USA
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Morrison SA, Sillett TS, Ghalambor CK, Fitzpatrick JW, Graber DM, Bakker VJ, Bowman R, Collins CT, Collins PW, Delaney KS, Doak DF, Koenig WD, Laughrin L, Lieberman AA, Marzluff JM, Reynolds MD, Scott JM, Stallcup JA, Vickers W, Boyce WM. Proactive Conservation Management of an Island-endemic Bird Species in the Face of Global Change. Bioscience 2011. [DOI: 10.1525/bio.2011.61.12.11] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
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Maclean JE, Goheen JR, Doak DF, Palmer TM, Young TP. Cryptic herbivores mediate the strength and form of ungulate impacts on a long-lived savanna tree. Ecology 2011; 92:1626-36. [PMID: 21905429 DOI: 10.1890/10-2097.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Plant populations are regulated by a diverse array of herbivores that impose demographic filters throughout their life cycle. Few studies, however, simultaneously quantify the impacts of multiple herbivore guilds on the lifetime performance or population growth rate of plants. In African savannas, large ungulates (such as elephants) are widely regarded as important drivers of woody plant population dynamics, while the potential impacts of smaller, more cryptic herbivores (such as rodents) have largely been ignored. We combined a large-scale ungulate exclusion experiment with a five-year manipulation of rodent densities to quantify the impacts of three herbivore guilds (wild ungulates, domestic cattle, and rodents) on all life stages of a widespread savanna tree. We utilized demographic modeling to reveal the overall role of each guild in regulating tree population dynamics, and to elucidate the importance of different demographic hurdles in driving population growth under contrasting consumer communities. We found that wild ungulates dramatically reduced population growth, shifting the population trajectory from increase to decline, but that the mechanisms driving these effects were strongly mediated by rodents. The impact of wild ungulates on population growth was predominantly driven by their negative effect on tree reproduction when rodents were excluded, and on adult tree survival when rodents were present. By limiting seedling survival, rodents also reduced population growth; however, this effect was strongly dampened where wild ungulates were present. We suggest that these complex interactions between disparate consumer guilds can have important consequences for the population demography of long-lived species, and that the effects of a single consumer group are often likely to vary dramatically depending on the larger community in which interactions are embedded.
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Affiliation(s)
- Janet E Maclean
- Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada.
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Novak M, Wootton JT, Doak DF, Emmerson M, Estes JA, Tinker MT. Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity. Ecology 2011; 92:836-46. [PMID: 21661547 DOI: 10.1890/10-1354.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 79] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (-25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Novak
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Long Marine Laboratory, University of California, Santa Cruz, California 95064, USA.
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50
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Conway-Cranos LL, Doak DF. Sampling errors create bias in Markov models for community dynamics: the problem and a method for its solution. Oecologia 2011; 167:199-207. [PMID: 21479593 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-011-1979-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2010] [Accepted: 03/14/2011] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Repeated, spatially explicit sampling is widely used to characterize the dynamics of sessile communities in both terrestrial and aquatic systems, yet our understanding of the consequences of errors made in such sampling is limited. In particular, when Markov transition probabilities are calculated by tracking individual points over time, misidentification of the same spatial locations will result in biased estimates of transition probabilities, successional rates, and community trajectories. Nonetheless, to date, all published studies that use such data have implicitly assumed that resampling occurs without error when making estimates of transition rates. Here, we develop and test a straightforward maximum likelihood approach, based on simple field estimates of resampling errors, to arrive at corrected estimates of transition rates between species in a rocky intertidal community. We compare community Markov models based on raw and corrected transition estimates using data from Endocladia muricata-dominated plots in a California intertidal assemblage, finding that uncorrected predictions of succession consistently overestimate recovery time. We tested the precision and accuracy of the approach using simulated datasets and found good performance of our estimation method over a range of realistic sample sizes and error rates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Letitia L Conway-Cranos
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA.
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