High-resolution data are necessary to understand the effects of climate on plant population dynamics of a forest herb

Climate is assumed to strongly influence species distribution and abundance. Although the performance of many organisms is influenced by the climate in their immediate proximity, the climate data used to model their distributions often have a coarse spatial resolution. This is problematic because the local climate experienced by individuals might deviate substantially from the regional average. This problem is likely to be particularly important for sessile organisms like plants and in environments where small-scale variation in climate is large. To quantify the effect of local temperature on vital rates and population growth rates, we used temperature values measured at the local scale (in situ logger measures) and integral projection models with demographic data from 37 populations of the forest herb Lathyrus vernus across a wide latitudinal gradient in Sweden. To assess how the spatial resolution of temperature data influences assessments of climate effects, we compared effects from models using local data with models using regionally aggregated temperature data at several spatial resolutions (≥1 km). Using local temperature data, we found that spring frost reduced the asymptotic population growth rate in the first of two annual transitions and influenced survival in both transitions. Only one of the four regional estimates showed a similar negative effect of spring frost on population growth rate. Our results for a perennial forest herb show that analyses using regionally aggregated data often fail to identify the effects of climate on population dynamics. This emphasizes the importance of using organism-relevant estimates of climate when examining effects on individual performance and population dynamics, as well as when modeling species distributions. For sessile organisms that experience the environment over small spatial scales, this will require climate data at high spatial resolutions.

Life-history characteristics and historical factors are important to explain regional variation in reproductive traits and genetic diversity in perennial mosses

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Plants have evolved an unrivalled diversity of reproductive strategies, including variation in the degree of sexual vs. clonal reproduction. This variation has important effects on the dynamics and genetic structure of populations. We examined the association between large-scale variation in reproductive patterns and intraspecific genetic diversity in two moss species where sex is manifested in the dominant haploid generation and sex expression is irregular. We predicted that in regions with more frequent realized sexual reproduction, populations should display less skewed sex ratios, should more often express sex and should have higher genetic diversity than in regions with largely clonal reproduction.

METHODS

We assessed reproductive status and phenotypic sex in the dioicous long-lived Drepanocladus trifarius and D. turgescens, in 248 and 438 samples across two regions in Scandinavia with frequent or rare realized sexual reproduction, respectively. In subsets of the samples, we analysed genetic diversity using nuclear and plastid sequence information and identified sex with a sex-specific molecular marker in non-reproductive samples.

KEY RESULTS

Contrary to our predictions, sex ratios did not differ between regions; genetic diversity did not differ in D. trifarius and it was higher in the region with rare sexual reproduction in D. turgescens. Supporting our predictions, relatively more samples expressed sex in D. trifarius in the region with frequent sexual reproduction. Overall, samples were mostly female. The degree of sex expression and genetic diversity differed between sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

Sex expression levels, regional sex ratios and genetic diversity were not directly associated with the regional frequency of realized sexual reproduction, and relationships and variation patterns differed between species. We conclude that a combination of species-specific life histories, such as longevity, overall degree of successful sexual reproduction and recruitment, and historical factors are important to explain this variation. Our data on haploid-dominated plants significantly complement plant reproductive biology.

Maladaptive plastic responses of flowering time to geothermal heating

Phenotypic plasticity might increase fitness if the conditions under which it evolved remain unaltered, but becomes maladaptive if the environment no longer provides reliable cues for subsequent conditions. In seasonal environments, timing of reproduction can respond plastically to spring temperature, maximizing the benefits of a long season while minimizing the exposure to unfavorable cold temperatures. However, if the relationship between early spring temperatures and later conditions changes, the optimal response might change. In geothermally heated ecosystems, the plastic response of flowering time to springtime soil temperature that has evolved in unheated areas is likely to be non-optimal, because soil temperatures are higher and decoupled from air temperatures in heated areas. We therefore expect natural selection to favor a lower plasticity and a delayed flowering in these areas. Using observational data along a natural geothermal warming gradient, we tested the hypothesis that selection on flowering time depends on soil temperature and favors later flowering on warmer soils in the perennial Cerastium fontanum. In both study years, plants growing in warmer soils began flowering earlier than plants growing in colder soils, suggesting that first flowering date (FFD) responds plastically to soil temperature. In one of the two study years, selection favored earlier flowering in colder soils but later flowering in warmer soils, suggesting that the current level of plastic advance of FFD on warmer soils may be maladaptive in some years. Our results illustrate the advantages of using natural experiments, such as geothermal ecosystems, to examine selection in environments that recently have undergone major changes. Such knowledge is essential to understand and predict both ecological and evolutionary responses to climate warming.

Spring temperature drives phenotypic selection on plasticity of flowering time

In seasonal environments, a high responsiveness of development to increasing temperatures in spring can infer benefits in terms of a longer growing season, but also costs in terms of an increased risk of facing unfavourable weather conditions. Still, we know little about how climatic conditions influence the optimal plastic response. Using 22 years of field observations for the perennial forest herb Lathyrus vernus, we assessed phenotypic selection on among-individual variation in reaction norms of flowering time to spring temperature, and examined if among-year variation in selection on plasticity was associated with spring temperature conditions. We found significant among-individual variation in mean flowering time and flowering time plasticity, and that plants that flowered earlier also had a more plastic flowering time. Selection favoured individuals with an earlier mean flowering time and a lower thermal plasticity of flowering time. Less plastic individuals were more strongly favoured in colder springs, indicating that spring temperature influenced optimal flowering time plasticity. Our results show how selection on plasticity can be linked to climatic conditions, and illustrate how we can understand and predict evolutionary responses of organisms to changing environmental conditions.

Forest edge effects on moss growth are amplified by drought

Forest fragmentation increases the amount of edges in the landscape. Differences in wind, radiation, and vegetation structure create edge-to-interior gradients in forest microclimate, and these gradients are likely to be more pronounced during droughts and heatwaves. Although the effects of climate extremes on edge influences have potentially strong and long-lasting impacts on forest understory biodiversity, they are not well understood and are not often considered in management and landscape planning. Here we used a novel method of retrospectively quantifying growth to assess biologically relevant edge influences likely caused by microclimate using Hylocomium splendens, a moss with annual segments. We examined how spatio-temporal variation in drought across 3 years and 46 sites in central Sweden, affected the depth and magnitude of edge influences. We also investigated whether edge effects during drought were influenced by differences in forest structure. Edge effects were almost twice as strong in the drought year compared to the non-drought years, but we did not find clear evidence that they penetrated deeper into the forest in the drought year. Edge influences were also greater in areas that had fewer days with rain during the drought year. Higher levels of forest canopy cover and tree height buffered the magnitude of edge influence in times of drought. Our results demonstrate that edge effects are amplified by drought, suggesting that fragmentation effects are aggravated when droughts become more frequent and severe. Our results suggest that dense edges and buffer zones with high canopy cover can be important ways to mitigate negative drought impacts in forest edges.

Selection against early flowering in geothermally heated soils is associated with pollen but not prey availability in a carnivorous plant

PREMISE

In high-latitude environments, plastic responses of phenology to increasing spring temperatures allow plants to extend growing seasons while avoiding late frosts. However, evolved plasticity might become maladaptive if climatic conditions change and spring temperatures no longer provide reliable cues for conditions important for fitness. Maladaptative phenological responses might be related to both abiotic factors and mismatches with interacting species. When mismatches arise, we expect selection to favor changes in phenology.

METHODS

We combined observations along a soil temperature gradient in a geothermally heated area with pollen and prey supplementation experiments and examined how phenotypic selection on flowering time in the carnivorous plant Pinguicula vulgaris depends on soil temperature, and pollen and prey availability.

RESULTS

Flowering advanced and fitness decreased with increasing soil temperature. However, in pollen-supplemented plants, fitness instead increased with soil temperature. In heated soils, there was selection favoring later flowering, while earlier flowering was favored in unheated soils. This pattern remained also after artificially increasing pollen and prey availability.

CONCLUSIONS

Plant-pollinator mismatches can be an important reason why evolved plastic responses of flowering time to increasing spring temperatures become maladaptive under novel environmental conditions, and why there is selection to delay flowering. In our study, selection for later flowering remained after artificially increasing pollen availability, suggesting that abiotic factors also contribute to the observed selection. Identifying the factors that make evolved phenological responses maladaptive under novel conditions is fundamental for understanding and predicting evolutionary responses to climate warming.

Single, but not dual, attack by a biotrophic pathogen and a sap-sucking insect affects the oak leaf metabolome

Plants interact with a multitude of microorganisms and insects, both below- and above ground, which might influence plant metabolism. Despite this, we lack knowledge of the impact of natural soil communities and multiple aboveground attackers on the metabolic responses of plants, and whether plant metabolic responses to single attack can predict responses to dual attack. We used untargeted metabolic fingerprinting (gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, GC-MS) on leaves of the pedunculate oak, Quercus robur, to assess the metabolic response to different soil microbiomes and aboveground single and dual attack by oak powdery mildew (Erysiphe alphitoides) and the common oak aphid (Tuberculatus annulatus). Distinct soil microbiomes were not associated with differences in the metabolic profile of oak seedling leaves. Single attacks by aphids or mildew had pronounced but different effects on the oak leaf metabolome, but we detected no difference between the metabolomes of healthy seedlings and seedlings attacked by both aphids and powdery mildew. Our findings show that aboveground attackers can have species-specific and non-additive effects on the leaf metabolome of oak. The lack of a metabolic signature detected by GC-MS upon dual attack might suggest the existence of a potential negative feedback, and highlights the importance of considering the impacts of multiple attackers to gain mechanistic insights into the ecology and evolution of species interactions and the structure of plant-associated communities, as well as for the development of sustainable strategies to control agricultural pests and diseases and plant breeding.

Different effects of warming treatments in forests versus hedgerows on the understorey plant Geum urbanum

The effectiveness of hedgerows as functional corridors in the face of climate warming has been little researched. Here we investigated the effects of warming temperatures on plant performance and population growth of Geum urbanum in forests versus hedgerows in two European temperate regions. Adult individuals were transplanted in three forest-hedgerow pairs in each of two different latitudes, and an experimental warming treatment using open-top chambers was used in a full factorial design. Plant performance was analysed using mixed models and population performance was analysed using Integral Projection Models and elasticity analyses. Temperature increases due to open-top chamber installation were higher in forests than in hedgerows. In forests, the warming treatment had a significant negative effect on the population growth rate of G. urbanum. In contrast, no significant effect of the warming treatment on population dynamics was detected in hedgerows. Overall, the highest population growth rates were found in the forest control sites, which was driven by a higher fecundity rather than a higher survival probability. Effects of warming treatments on G. urbanum population growth rates differed between forests and hedgerows. In forests, warming treatments negatively affected population growth, but not in hedgerows. This could be a consequence of the overall lower warming achieved in hedgerows. We conclude that maintenance of cooler forest microclimates coul, at least temporarily, moderate the species response to climate warming.

Interactive effects of drought and edge exposure on old-growth forest understory species

CONTEXT

Both climatic extremes and land-use change constitute severe threats to biodiversity, but their interactive effects remain poorly understood. In forest ecosystems, the effects of climatic extremes can be exacerbated at forest edges.

OBJECTIVES

We explored the hypothesis that an extreme summer drought reduced the richness and coverage of old-growth forest species, particularly in forest patches with high edge exposure.

METHODS

Using a high-resolution spatially explicit precipitation dataset, we could detect variability in drought intensity during the summer drought of 2018. We selected 60 old-growth boreal forest patches in central Sweden that differed in their level of drought intensity and amount of edge exposure. The year after the drought, we surveyed red-listed and old-growth forest indicator species of vascular plants, lichens and bryophytes. We assessed if species richness, composition, and coverage were related to drought intensity, edge exposure, and their interaction.

RESULTS

Species richness was negatively related to drought intensity in forest patches with a high edge exposure, but not in patches with less edge exposure. Patterns differed among organism groups and were strongest for cyanolichens, epiphytes associated with high-pH bark, and species occurring on convex substrates such as trees and logs.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that the effects of an extreme climatic event on forest species can vary strongly across a landscape. Edge exposed old-growth forest patches are more at risk under extreme climatic events than those in continuous forests. This suggest that maintaining buffer zones around forest patches with high conservation values should be an important conservation measure.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-022-01441-9.

The relationship between pathogen life-history traits and metapopulation dynamics

Plant pathogen traits, such as transmission mode and overwintering strategy, may have important effects on dispersal and persistence, and drive disease dynamics. Still, we lack insights into how life-history traits influence spatiotemporal disease dynamics. We adopted a multifaceted approach, combining experimental assays, theory and field surveys, to investigate whether information about two pathogen life-history traits - infectivity and overwintering strategy - can predict pathogen metapopulation dynamics in natural systems. For this, we focused on four fungal pathogens (two rust fungi, one chytrid fungus and one smut fungus) on the forest herb Anemone nemorosa. Pathogens infecting new plants mostly via spores (the chytrid and smut fungi) had higher patch occupancies and colonization rates than pathogens causing mainly systemic infections and overwintering in the rhizomes (the two rust fungi). Although the rust fungi more often occupied well-connected plant patches, the chytrid and smut fungi were equally or more common in isolated patches. Host patch size was positively related to patch occupancy and colonization rates for all pathogens. Predicting disease dynamics is crucial for understanding the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of host-pathogen interactions, and to prevent disease outbreaks. Our study shows that combining experiments, theory and field observations is a useful way to predict disease dynamics.

Simultaneous selection on vegetative and reproductive phenology in a perennial herb

The timing of different life‐history events is often correlated, and selection might only rarely be exerted independently on the timing of a single event. In plants, phenotypic selection has often been shown to favor earlier flowering. However, little is known about to what extent this selection acts directly versus indirectly via vegetative phenology, and if selection on the two traits is correlational. We estimated direct, indirect, and correlational phenotypic selection on vegetative and reproductive phenology over 3 years for flowering individuals of the perennial herb Lathyrus vernus. Direct selection favored earlier flowering and shorter timespans between leaf‐out and flowering in all years. However, early flowering was associated with early leaf‐out, and the direction of selection on leaf‐out day varied among years. As a result, selection on leaf‐out weakened selection for early flowering in one of the study years. We found no evidence of correlational selection. Our results highlight the importance of including temporally correlated traits when exploring selection on the phenology of seasonal events.

Spring and autumn phenology in an understory herb are uncorrelated and driven by different factors

PREMISE

Climate warming has altered the start and end of growing seasons in temperate regions. Ultimately, these changes occur at the individual level, but little is known about how previous seasonal life-history events, temperature, and plant-resource state simultaneously influence the spring and autumn phenology of plant individuals.

METHODS

We studied the relationships between the timing of leaf-out and shoot senescence over 3 years in a natural population of the long-lived understory herb Lathyrus vernus and investigated the effects of spring temperature, plant size, reproductive status, and grazing on spring and autumn phenology.

RESULTS

The timing of leaf-out and senescence were consistent within individuals among years. Leaf-out and senescence were not correlated with each other within years. Larger plants leafed out and senesced later, and size had no effect on growing season length. Reproductive plants leafed out earlier and had longer growing seasons than nonreproductive plants. Grazing had no detectable effects on phenology. Colder spring temperatures delayed senescence in two of three study years.

CONCLUSIONS

The timing of seasonal events, such as leaf-out and senescence in plants can be expressed largely independently within and among seasons and are influenced by different factors. Growing season start and length can often be dependent on plant condition and reproductive status. Knowledge about the drivers of growing season length of individuals is essential to more accurately predict species and community responses to environmental variation.

PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY MASKS RANGE-WIDE GENETIC DIFFERENTIATION FOR VEGETATIVE BUT NOT REPRODUCTIVE TRAITS IN A SHORT-LIVED PLANT

Genetic differentiation and phenotypic plasticity jointly shape intraspecific trait variation, but their roles differ among traits. In short-lived plants, reproductive traits may be more genetically determined due to their impact on fitness, whereas vegetative traits may show higher plasticity to buffer short-term perturbations. Combining a multi-treatment greenhouse experiment with observational field data throughout the range of a widespread short-lived herb, Plantago lanceolata, we (1) disentangled genetic and plastic responses of functional traits to a set of environmental drivers and (2) assessed how genetic differentiation and plasticity shape observational trait-environment relationships. Reproductive traits showed distinct genetic differentiation that largely determined observational patterns, but only when correcting traits for differences in biomass. Vegetative traits showed higher plasticity and opposite genetic and plastic responses, masking the genetic component underlying field-observed trait variation. Our study suggests that genetic differentiation may be inferred from observational data only for the traits most closely related to fitness.

The timing and asymmetry of plant-pathogen-insect interactions

Insects and pathogens frequently exploit the same host plant and can potentially impact each other's performance. However, studies on plant–pathogen–insect interactions have mainly focused on a fixed temporal setting or on a single interaction partner. In this study, we assessed the impact of time of attacker arrival on the outcome and symmetry of interactions between aphids (Tuberculatus annulatus), powdery mildew (Erysiphe alphitoides), and caterpillars (Phalera bucephala) feeding on pedunculate oak, Quercus robur, and explored how single versus multiple attackers affect oak performance. We used a multifactorial greenhouse experiment in which oak seedlings were infected with either zero, one, two, or three attackers, with the order of attacker arrival differing among treatments. The performances of all involved organisms were monitored throughout the experiment. Overall, attackers had a weak and inconsistent impact on plant performance. Interactions between attackers, when present, were asymmetric. For example, aphids performed worse, but powdery mildew performed better, when co-occurring. Order of arrival strongly affected the outcome of interactions, and early attackers modified the strength and direction of interactions between later-arriving attackers. Our study shows that interactions between plant attackers can be asymmetric, time-dependent, and species specific. This is likely to shape the ecology and evolution of plant–pathogen–insect interactions.

Intraspecific variation influences performance of moss transplants along microclimate gradients

Identifying the environmental drivers of population dynamics is crucial to predict changes in species abundances and distributions under climate change. Populations of the same species might differ in their responses as a result of intraspecific variation. Yet the importance of such differences remains largely unexplored. We examined the responses of latitudinally distant populations of the forest moss Hylocomiastrum umbratum along microclimate gradients in Sweden. We transplanted moss mats from southern and northern populations to 30 sites with contrasting microclimates (i.e., replicated field common gardens) within a forest landscape, and recorded growth and survival of individual shoots over 3 yr. To evaluate the importance of intraspecific variation in responses to environmental factors, we assessed effects of the interactions between population origin and microclimate drivers on growth and survival. Effects on overall performance of transplanted populations were estimated using the product of survival and growth. We found differences between southern and northern populations in the response to summer temperature and snowmelt date in one of three yearly transitions. In this year, southern populations performed better in warm, southern‐like conditions than in cold, northern‐like conditions; and the reverse pattern was true for northern populations. Survival of all populations decreased with evaporation, consistent with the high hydric demands and poikilohydric nature of mosses. Our results are consistent with population adaptation to local climate, and suggest that intraspecific variation among populations can have important effects on the response of species to microclimate drivers. These findings highlight the need to account for differential responses in predictions of species abundance and distribution under climate change.

Global gene flow releases invasive plants from environmental constraints on genetic diversity

When plants establish outside their native range, their ability to adapt to the new environment is influenced by both demography and dispersal. However, the relative importance of these two factors is poorly understood. To quantify the influence of demography and dispersal on patterns of genetic diversity underlying adaptation, we used data from a globally distributed demographic research network comprising 35 native and 18 nonnative populations of Plantago lanceolata Species-specific simulation experiments showed that dispersal would dilute demographic influences on genetic diversity at local scales. Populations in the native European range had strong spatial genetic structure associated with geographic distance and precipitation seasonality. In contrast, nonnative populations had weaker spatial genetic structure that was not associated with environmental gradients but with higher within-population genetic diversity. Our findings show that dispersal caused by repeated, long-distance, human-mediated introductions has allowed invasive plant populations to overcome environmental constraints on genetic diversity, even without strong demographic changes. The impact of invasive plants may, therefore, increase with repeated introductions, highlighting the need to constrain future introductions of species even if they already exist in an area.

Hiding from the climate: Characterizing microrefugia for boreal forest understory species

Climate warming is likely to shift the range margins of species poleward, but fine-scale temperature differences near the ground (microclimates) may modify these range shifts. For example, cold-adapted species may survive in microrefugia when the climate gets warmer. However, it is still largely unknown to what extent cold microclimates govern the local persistence of populations at their warm range margin. We located 99 microrefugia, defined as sites with edge populations of 12 widespread boreal forest understory species (vascular plants, mosses, liverworts and lichens) in an area of ca. 24,000 km² along the species' southern range margin in central Sweden. Within each population, a logger measured temperature eight times per day during one full year. Using univariate and multivariate analyses, we examined the differences of the populations' microclimates with the mean and range of microclimates in the landscape, and identified the typical climate, vegetation and topographic features of these habitats. Comparison sites were drawn from another logger data set (n = 110), and from high-resolution microclimate maps. The microrefugia were mainly places characterized by lower summer and autumn maximum temperatures, late snow melt dates and high climate stability. Microrefugia also had higher forest basal area and lower solar radiation in spring and autumn than the landscape average. Although there were common trends across northern species in how microrefugia differed from the landscape average, there were also interspecific differences and some species contributed more than others to the overall results. Our findings provide biologically meaningful criteria to locate and spatially predict potential climate microrefugia in the boreal forest. This opens up the opportunity to protect valuable sites, and adapt forest management, for example, by keeping old-growth forests at topographically shaded sites. These measures may help to mitigate the loss of genetic and species diversity caused by rear-edge contractions in a warmer climate.

Sex and the cost of reproduction through the life course of an extremely long-lived herb

Despite being central concepts for life history theory, little is known about how reproductive effort and costs vary with individual age once plants have started to reproduce. We conducted a 5-year field study and estimated age-dependent reproductive effort for both sexes in the extraordinarily long-lived dioecious plant Borderea pyrenaica. We also evaluated costs of reproduction on vital rates for male and female plants, both by examining effects of differences in individual reproductive effort under natural conditions, and by conducting a flower removal experiment, aimed at decreasing reproductive effort. Reproductive effort was fairly constant and independent of age for males, which may reflect a strategy of adjusting overall reproductive output by spreading reproduction over the life course. Females had a higher total effort, which first increased and then decreased with age. The latter may be a response to an increasing reproductive value-an inverse of a terminal investment-or a sign of reproductive senescence due to an age-related physiological decline. Seed production was lower in plants with higher previous reproductive effort and this effect increased with age. We found no evidence for costs of reproduction on other vital rates for either sex. Experimental flower removal only resulted in progressively more negative effects on flower production in older male plants, whereas female vital rates were unaffected. Overall, this study demonstrates that not only sex, but also age influences resource allocation trade-offs and, thus, plant life history evolution.

A natural heating experiment: Phenotypic and genotypic responses of plant phenology to geothermal soil warming

Under global warming, the survival of many populations of sedentary organisms in seasonal environments will largely depend on their ability to cope with warming in situ by means of phenotypic plasticity or adaptive evolution. This is particularly true in high-latitude environments, where current growing seasons are short, and expected temperature increases large. In such short-growing season environments, the timing of growth and reproduction is critical to survival. Here, we use the unique setting provided by a natural geothermal soil warming gradient (Hengill geothermal area, Iceland) to study the response of Cerastium fontanum flowering phenology to temperature. We hypothesized that trait expression and phenotypic selection on flowering phenology are related to soil temperature, and tested the hypothesis that temperature-driven differences in selection on phenology have resulted in genetic differentiation using a common garden experiment. In the field, phenology was related to soil temperature, with plants in warmer microsites flowering earlier than plants at colder microsites. In the common garden, plants responded to spring warming in a counter-gradient fashion; plants originating from warmer microsites flowered relatively later than those originating from colder microsites. A likely explanation for this pattern is that plants from colder microsites have been selected to compensate for the shorter growing season by starting development at lower temperatures. However, in our study we did not find evidence of variation in phenotypic selection on phenology in relation to temperature, but selection consistently favoured early flowering. Our results show that soil temperature influences trait expression and suggest the existence of genetically based variation in flowering phenology leading to counter-gradient local adaptation along a gradient of soil temperatures. An important implication of our results is that observed phenotypic responses of phenology to global warming might often be a combination of short-term plastic responses and long-term evolutionary responses, acting in different directions.

Resource overlap and dilution effects shape host plant use in a myrmecophilous butterfly

The effects of consumers on fitness of resource organisms are a complex function of the spatio-temporal distribution of the resources, consumer functional responses and trait preferences, and availability of other resources. The ubiquitous variation in the intensity of species interactions has important consequences for the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of natural populations. Nevertheless, little is known about the processes causing this variation and their operational scales. Here, we examine how variation in the intensity of a consumer-resource interaction is related to resource timing, resource density and abundance of other resources. Using the butterfly consumer Phengaris alcon and its two sequential resources, the host plant Gentiana pneumonanthe and the host ants Myrmica spp., we investigated how butterfly egg-laying depended on focal host plant phenology, density and phenology of neighbouring host plants and host ant abundance. Butterflies preferred plants that simultaneously maximized the availability of both larval resources in time and space, that is, they chose early-flowering plants that were of higher nutritional quality for larvae where host ants were abundant. Both the probability of oviposition and the number of eggs were lower in plant individuals with a high neighbour density than in more isolated plants, and this dilution effect was stronger when neighbours flowered early. Our results show that plant-herbivore interactions simultaneously depend on the spatio-temporal distribution of a focal resource and on the small-scale spatial variation in the abundance of other herbivore resources. Given that consumers have negative effects on fitness and prefer certain timing of the resource organisms, this implies that processes acting at the levels of individuals, populations and communities simultaneously contribute to variation in consumer-mediated natural selection.

Caterpillar seed predators mediate shifts in selection on flowering phenology in their host plant

Variation in selection among populations and years has important implications for evolutionary trajectories of populations. Yet, the agents of selection causing this variation have rarely been identified. Selection on the time of reproduction within a season in plants might differ both among populations and among years, and selection can be mediated by both mutualists and antagonists. We investigated if differences in the direction of phenotypic selection on flowering phenology among 20 populations of Gentiana pneumonanthe during 2 yr were related to the presence of the butterfly seed predator Phengaris alcon, and if butterfly incidence was associated with the abundance of the butterfly's second host, Myrmica ants. In plant populations without the butterfly, phenotypic selection favored earlier flowering. In populations where the butterfly was present, caterpillars preferentially attacked early-flowering individuals, shifting the direction of selection to favoring later flowering. Butterfly incidence in plant populations increased with ant abundance. Our results demonstrate that antagonistic interactions can shift the direction of selection on flowering phenology, and suggest that such shifts might be associated with differences in the community context.

Grazers affect selection on inflorescence height both directly and indirectly and effects change over time

Selection mediated by one biotic agent will often be modified by the presence of other biotic interactions, and the importance of such indirect effects might change over time. We conducted an 11-yr field experiment to test the prediction that large grazers affect selection on floral display of the dimorphic herb Primula farinosa not only directly through differential grazing damage, but also indirectly by affecting vegetation height and thereby selection mediated by pollinators and seed predators. Exclusion of large grazers increased vegetation height and the strength of pollinator-mediated selection for tall inflorescences and seed-predator-mediated selection for short inflorescences. The direct effect of grazers on selection resulting from differential grazing damage to the two scape morphs showed no temporal trend. By contrast, the increase in vegetation height in exclosures over time was associated with an increase in selection mediated by pollinators and seed predators. In the early years of the experiment, the indirect effects of grazers on selection mediated by pollinators and seed predators were weak, whereas at the end of the experiment, the indirect effects were of similar magnitude as the direct effect due to differential grazing damage. The results demonstrate that the indirect effects of a selective agent can be as strong as its direct effects, and that the relative importance of direct vs. indirect effects on selection can change over time. A full understanding of the ecological processes governing variation in selection thus requires that both direct and indirect effects of biotic interactions are assessed.

Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades

Phenological responses to climate change (e.g., earlier leaf-out or egg hatch date) are now well documented and clearly linked to rising temperatures in recent decades. Such shifts in the phenologies of interacting species may lead to shifts in their synchrony, with cascading community and ecosystem consequences. To date, single-system studies have provided no clear picture, either finding synchrony shifts may be extremely prevalent [Mayor SJ, et al. (2017) Sci Rep 7:1902] or relatively uncommon [Iler AM, et al. (2013) Glob Chang Biol 19:2348-2359], suggesting that shifts toward asynchrony may be infrequent. A meta-analytic approach would provide insights into global trends and how they are linked to climate change. We compared phenological shifts among pairwise species interactions (e.g., predator-prey) using published long-term time-series data of phenological events from aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across four continents since 1951 to determine whether recent climate change has led to overall shifts in synchrony. We show that the relative timing of key life cycle events of interacting species has changed significantly over the past 35 years. Further, by comparing the period before major climate change (pre-1980s) and after, we show that estimated changes in phenology and synchrony are greater in recent decades. However, there has been no consistent trend in the direction of these changes. Our findings show that there have been shifts in the timing of interacting species in recent decades; the next challenges are to improve our ability to predict the direction of change and understand the full consequences for communities and ecosystems.

Phenological synchrony between a butterfly and its host plants: Experimental test of effects of spring temperature

Climate-driven changes in the relative phenologies of interacting species may potentially alter the outcome of species interactions. Phenotypic plasticity is expected to be important for short-term response to new climate conditions, and differences between species in plasticity are likely to influence their temporal overlap and interaction patterns. As reaction norms of interacting species may be locally adapted, any such climate-induced change in interaction patterns may vary among localities. However, consequences of spatial variation in plastic responses for species interactions are understudied. We experimentally explored how temperature affected synchrony between spring emergence of a butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines, and onset of flowering of five of its host plant species across a latitudinal gradient. We also studied potential effects on synchrony if climate-driven northward expansions would be faster in the butterflies than in host plants. Lastly, to assess how changes in synchrony influence host use we carried out an experiment to examine the importance of the developmental stage of plant reproductive structures for butterfly oviposition preference. In southern locations, the butterflies were well-synchronized with the majority of their local host plant species across temperatures, suggesting that thermal plasticity in butterfly development matches oviposition to host plant development and that thermal reaction norms of insects and plants result in similar advancement of spring phenology in response to warming. In the most northern region, however, relative phenology between the butterfly and two of its host plant species changed with increased temperature. We also show that the developmental stage of plants was important for egg-laying, and conclude that temperature-induced changes in synchrony in the northernmost region are likely to lead to shifts in host use in A. cardamines if spring temperatures become warmer. Northern expansion of butterfly populations might possibly have a positive effect on keeping up with host plant phenology with more northern host plant populations. Considering that the majority of insect herbivores exploit multiple plant species differing in their phenological response to spring temperatures, temperature-induced changes in synchrony might lead to shifts in host use and changes in species interactions in many temperate communities.

Butterfly oviposition preference is not related to larval performance on a polyploid herb

The preference–performance hypothesis predicts that female insects maximize their fitness by utilizing host plants which are associated with high larval performance. Still, studies with several insect species have failed to find a positive correlation between oviposition preference and larval performance. In the present study, we experimentally investigated the relationship between oviposition preferences and larval performance in the butterfly Anthocharis cardamines. Preferences were assessed using both cage experiments and field data on the proportion of host plant individuals utilized in natural populations. Larval performance was experimentally investigated using larvae descending from 419 oviposition events by 21 females on plants from 51 populations of two ploidy types of the perennial herb Cardamine pratensis. Neither ploidy type nor population identity influenced egg survival or larval development, but increased plant inflorescence size resulted in a larger final larval size. There was no correlation between female oviposition preference and egg survival or larval development under controlled conditions. Moreover, variation in larval performance among populations under controlled conditions was not correlated with the proportion of host plants utilized in the field. Lastly, first instar larvae added to plants rejected for oviposition by butterfly females during the preference experiment performed equally well as larvae growing on plants chosen for oviposition. The lack of a correlation between larval performance and oviposition preference for A. cardamines under both experimental and natural settings suggests that female host choice does not maximize the fitness of the individual offspring.

Flowering schedule in a perennial plant; life-history trade-offs, seed predation, and total offspring fitness

Optimal timing of reproduction within a season may be influenced by several abiotic and biotic factors. These factors sometimes affect different components of fitness, making assessments of net selection difficult. We used estimates of offspring fitness to examine how pre-dispersal seed predation influences selection on flowering schedule in an herb with a bimodal flowering pattern, Actaea spicata. Within individuals, seeds from flowers on early terminal inflorescences had a higher germination rate and produced larger seedlings than seeds from flowers on late basal inflorescences. Reproductive value, estimated using demographic integral projection models and accounting for size-dependent differences in future performance, was two times higher for intact seeds from early flowers than for seeds from late flowers. Fruits from late flowers were, however, much more likely to escape seed predation than fruits from early flowers. Reproductive values of early and late flowers balanced at a predation intensity of 63%. Across 15 natural populations, the strength of selection for allocation to late flowers was positively correlated with mean seed predation intensity. Our results suggest that the optimal shape of the flowering schedule, in terms of the allocation between early and late flowers, is determined by the trade-off between offspring number and quality, and that variation in antagonistic interactions among populations influences the balancing of this trade-off. At the same time they illustrate that phenotypic selection analyses that fail to account for differences in offspring fitness might be misleading.

No evidence of sexual niche partitioning in a dioecious moss with rare sexual reproduction

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Roughly half of the species of bryophytes have separate sexes (dioecious) and half are hermaphroditic (monoecious). This variation has major consequences for the ecology and evolution of the different species. In some sexually reproducing dioecious bryophytes, sex ratio has been shown to vary with environmental conditions. This study focuses on the dioecious wetland moss Drepanocladus trifarius, which rarely produces sexual branches or sporophytes and lacks apparent secondary sex characteristics, and examines whether genetic sexes exhibit different habitat preferences, i.e. whether sexual niche partitioning occurs.

METHODS

A total of 277 shoots of D. trifarius were randomly sampled at 214 locations and 12 environmental factors were quantified at each site. Sex was assigned to the individual shoots collected in the natural environments, regardless of their reproductive status, using a specifically designed molecular marker associated with female sex.

KEY RESULTS

Male and female shoots did not differ in shoot biomass, the sexes were randomly distributed with respect to each other, and environmental conditions at male and female sampling locations did not differ. Collectively, this demonstrates a lack of sexual niche segregation. Adult genetic sex ratio was female-biased, with 2·8 females for every male individual.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show that although the sexes of D. trifarius did not differ with regard to annual growth, spatial distribution or habitat requirements, the genetic sex ratio was nevertheless significantly female-biased. This supports the notion that factors other than sex-related differences in reproductive costs and sexual dimorphism can also drive the evolution of biased sex ratios in plants.

Timing of flowering and intensity of attack by a butterfly herbivore in a polyploid herb

Timing of plant development both determines the abiotic conditions that the plant experiences and strongly influences the intensity of interactions with other organisms. Plants and herbivores differ in their response to environmental cues, and spatial and temporal variation in environmental conditions might influence the synchrony between host plants and herbivores, and the intensity of their interactions. We investigated whether differences in first day of flowering among and within 21 populations of the polyploid herb Cardamine pratensis influenced the frequency of oviposition by the butterfly Anthocharis cardamines during four study years. The proportion of plants that became oviposited upon differed among populations, but these differences were not related to mean flowering phenology within the population in any of the four study years. Attack rates in the field were also not correlated with resistance to oviposition estimated under controlled conditions. Within populations, the frequency of butterfly attack was higher in early-flowering individuals in two of the four study years, while there was no significant relationship in the other 2 years. Larger plants were more likely to become oviposited upon in all 4 years. The effects of first flowering day and size on the frequency of butterfly attack did not differ among populations. The results suggest that differences in attack intensities among populations are driven mainly by differences in the environmental context of populations while mean differences in plant traits play a minor role. The fact that within populations timing of flowering influenced the frequency of herbivore attack only in some years and suggests that herbivore-mediated selection on plant phenology differs among years, possibly because plants and herbivores respond differently to environmental cues.

Predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of species under environmental change

Environmental changes are expected to alter both the distribution and the abundance of organisms. A disproportionate amount of past work has focused on distribution only, either documenting historical range shifts or predicting future occurrence patterns. However, simultaneous predictions of abundance and distribution across landscapes would be far more useful. To critically assess which approaches represent advances towards the goal of joint predictions of abundance and distribution, we review recent work on changing distributions and on effects of environmental drivers on single populations. Several methods have been used to predict changing distributions. Some of these can be easily modified to also predict abundance, but others cannot. In parallel, demographers have developed a much better understanding of how changing abiotic and biotic drivers will influence growth rate and abundance in single populations. However, this demographic work has rarely taken a landscape perspective and has largely ignored the effects of intraspecific density. We advocate a synthetic approach in which population models accounting for both density dependence and effects of environmental drivers are used to make integrated predictions of equilibrium abundance and distribution across entire landscapes. Such predictions would constitute an important step forward in assessing the ecological consequences of environmental changes.

Climate change, phenology, and butterfly host plant utilization

Knowledge of how species interactions are influenced by climate warming is paramount to understand current biodiversity changes. We review phenological changes of Swedish butterflies during the latest decades and explore potential climate effects on butterfly-host plant interactions using the Orange tip butterfly Anthocharis cardamines and its host plants as a model system. This butterfly has advanced its appearance dates substantially, and its mean flight date shows a positive correlation with latitude. We show that there is a large latitudinal variation in host use and that butterfly populations select plant individuals based on their flowering phenology. We conclude that A. cardamines is a phenological specialist but a host species generalist. This implies that thermal plasticity for spring development influences host utilization of the butterfly through effects on the phenological matching with its host plants. However, the host utilization strategy of A. cardamines appears to render it resilient to relatively large variation in climate.

Microrefugia: Not for everyone

Microrefugia are sites that support populations of species when their ranges contract during unfavorable climate episodes. Here, we review and discuss two aspects relevant for microrefugia. First, distributions of different species are influenced by different climatic variables. Second, climatic variables differ in the degree of local decoupling from the regional climate. Based on this, we suggest that only species limited by climatic conditions decoupled from the regional climate can benefit from microrefugia. We argue that this restriction has received little attention in spite of its importance for microrefugia as a mechanism for species resilience (the survival of unfavorable episodes and subsequent range expansion). Presence of microrefugia will depend on both the responses of individual species to local climatic variation and how climate-forcing factors shape the correlation between local and regional climate across space and time.

Local environment and density-dependent feedbacks determine population growth in a forest herb

Linking spatial variation in environmental factors to variation in demographic rates is essential for a mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations. However, we still know relatively little about such links, partly because feedbacks via intraspecific density make them difficult to observe in natural populations. We conducted a detailed field study and investigated simultaneous effects of environmental factors and the intraspecific density of individuals on the demography of the herb Lathyrus vernus. In regression models of vital rates we identified effects associated with spring shade on survival and growth, while density was negatively correlated with these vital rates. Density was also negatively correlated with average individual size in the study plots, which is consistent with self-thinning. In addition, average plant sizes were larger than predicted by density in plots that were less shaded by the tree canopy, indicating an environmentally determined carrying capacity. A size-structured integral projection model based on the vital rate regressions revealed that the identified effects of shade and density were strong enough to produce differences in stable population sizes similar to those observed in the field. The results illustrate how the local environment can determine dynamics of populations and that intraspecific density may have to be more carefully considered in studies of plant demography and population viability analyses of threatened species. We conclude that demographic approaches incorporating information about both density and key environmental factors are powerful tools for understanding the processes that interact to determine population dynamics and abundances.

Among-population variation in tolerance to larval herbivory by Anthocharis cardamines in the polyploid herb Cardamine pratensis

Plants have two principal defense mechanisms to decrease fitness losses to herbivory: tolerance, the ability to compensate fitness after damage, and resistance, the ability to avoid damage. Variation in intensity of herbivory among populations should result in variation in plant defense levels if tolerance and resistance are associated with costs. Yet little is known about how levels of tolerance are related to resistance and attack intensity in the field, and about the costs of tolerance. In this study, we used information about tolerance and resistance against larval herbivory by the butterfly Anthocharis cardamines under controlled conditions together with information about damage in the field for a large set of populations of the perennial plant Cardamine pratensis. Plant tolerance was estimated in a common garden experiment where plants were subjected to a combination of larval herbivory and clipping. We found no evidence of that the proportion of damage that was caused by larval feeding vs. clipping influenced plant responses. Damage treatments had a negative effect on the three measured fitness components and also resulted in an earlier flowering in the year after the attack. Tolerance was related to attack intensity in the population of origin, i.e. plants from populations with higher attack intensity were more likely to flower in the year following damage. However, we found no evidence of a relationship between tolerance and resistance. These results indicate that herbivory drives the evolution for increased tolerance, and that changes in tolerance are not linked to changes in resistance. We suggest that the simultaneous study of tolerance, attack intensity in the field and resistance constitutes a powerful tool to understand how plant strategies to avoid negative effects of herbivore damage evolve.