From climate perceptions to actions: A case study on coffee farms in Ethiopia

Increasing temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns have major consequences for smallholder farmers, especially in the Global South. Our study examined spatial patterns and climatic drivers of farmers' perceptions of climate change, and how these perceptions translated into adaptation actions. We interviewed 56 farmers in southwestern Ethiopia and analyzed ERA5-Land reanalysis climate data from 1971 to 2020. The majority of farmers perceived the recorded temperature increase as well as a decrease and shift in the timing of rainfall. Perceived climate change varied with local climate factors and not with the rate of climate change itself. Farmers' adaptation practices showed associations with local temperature, but not with farmers' perceptions of climate change. Our findings highlight that even if farmers perceive climate change, perceptions are most common in areas where climate action is already urgent, and perceptions may not translate into adaptation. Thus, targeted and timely information and extension programs are crucial.

High-resolution data are necessary to understand the effects of climate on plant population dynamics of a forest herb

Climate is assumed to strongly influence species distribution and abundance. Although the performance of many organisms is influenced by the climate in their immediate proximity, the climate data used to model their distributions often have a coarse spatial resolution. This is problematic because the local climate experienced by individuals might deviate substantially from the regional average. This problem is likely to be particularly important for sessile organisms like plants and in environments where small-scale variation in climate is large. To quantify the effect of local temperature on vital rates and population growth rates, we used temperature values measured at the local scale (in situ logger measures) and integral projection models with demographic data from 37 populations of the forest herb Lathyrus vernus across a wide latitudinal gradient in Sweden. To assess how the spatial resolution of temperature data influences assessments of climate effects, we compared effects from models using local data with models using regionally aggregated temperature data at several spatial resolutions (≥1 km). Using local temperature data, we found that spring frost reduced the asymptotic population growth rate in the first of two annual transitions and influenced survival in both transitions. Only one of the four regional estimates showed a similar negative effect of spring frost on population growth rate. Our results for a perennial forest herb show that analyses using regionally aggregated data often fail to identify the effects of climate on population dynamics. This emphasizes the importance of using organism-relevant estimates of climate when examining effects on individual performance and population dynamics, as well as when modeling species distributions. For sessile organisms that experience the environment over small spatial scales, this will require climate data at high spatial resolutions.

ForestClim-Bioclimatic variables for microclimate temperatures of European forests

Microclimate research gained renewed interest over the last decade and its importance for many ecological processes is increasingly being recognized. Consequently, the call for high-resolution microclimatic temperature grids across broad spatial extents is becoming more pressing to improve ecological models. Here, we provide a new set of open-access bioclimatic variables for microclimate temperatures of European forests at 25 × 25 m² resolution.

Forest edge effects on moss growth are amplified by drought

Forest fragmentation increases the amount of edges in the landscape. Differences in wind, radiation, and vegetation structure create edge-to-interior gradients in forest microclimate, and these gradients are likely to be more pronounced during droughts and heatwaves. Although the effects of climate extremes on edge influences have potentially strong and long-lasting impacts on forest understory biodiversity, they are not well understood and are not often considered in management and landscape planning. Here we used a novel method of retrospectively quantifying growth to assess biologically relevant edge influences likely caused by microclimate using Hylocomium splendens, a moss with annual segments. We examined how spatio-temporal variation in drought across 3 years and 46 sites in central Sweden, affected the depth and magnitude of edge influences. We also investigated whether edge effects during drought were influenced by differences in forest structure. Edge effects were almost twice as strong in the drought year compared to the non-drought years, but we did not find clear evidence that they penetrated deeper into the forest in the drought year. Edge influences were also greater in areas that had fewer days with rain during the drought year. Higher levels of forest canopy cover and tree height buffered the magnitude of edge influence in times of drought. Our results demonstrate that edge effects are amplified by drought, suggesting that fragmentation effects are aggravated when droughts become more frequent and severe. Our results suggest that dense edges and buffer zones with high canopy cover can be important ways to mitigate negative drought impacts in forest edges.

Different effects of warming treatments in forests versus hedgerows on the understorey plant Geum urbanum

The effectiveness of hedgerows as functional corridors in the face of climate warming has been little researched. Here we investigated the effects of warming temperatures on plant performance and population growth of Geum urbanum in forests versus hedgerows in two European temperate regions. Adult individuals were transplanted in three forest-hedgerow pairs in each of two different latitudes, and an experimental warming treatment using open-top chambers was used in a full factorial design. Plant performance was analysed using mixed models and population performance was analysed using Integral Projection Models and elasticity analyses. Temperature increases due to open-top chamber installation were higher in forests than in hedgerows. In forests, the warming treatment had a significant negative effect on the population growth rate of G. urbanum. In contrast, no significant effect of the warming treatment on population dynamics was detected in hedgerows. Overall, the highest population growth rates were found in the forest control sites, which was driven by a higher fecundity rather than a higher survival probability. Effects of warming treatments on G. urbanum population growth rates differed between forests and hedgerows. In forests, warming treatments negatively affected population growth, but not in hedgerows. This could be a consequence of the overall lower warming achieved in hedgerows. We conclude that maintenance of cooler forest microclimates coul, at least temporarily, moderate the species response to climate warming.

The effect of natural disturbances on forest biodiversity: an ecological synthesis

Disturbances alter biodiversity via their specific characteristics, including severity and extent in the landscape, which act at different temporal and spatial scales. Biodiversity response to disturbance also depends on the community characteristics and habitat requirements of species. Untangling the mechanistic interplay of these factors has guided disturbance ecology for decades, generating mixed scientific evidence of biodiversity responses to disturbance. Understanding the impact of natural disturbances on biodiversity is increasingly important due to human-induced changes in natural disturbance regimes. In many areas, major natural forest disturbances, such as wildfires, windstorms, and insect outbreaks, are becoming more frequent, intense, severe, and widespread due to climate change and land-use change. Conversely, the suppression of natural disturbances threatens disturbance-dependent biota. Using a meta-analytic approach, we analysed a global data set (with most sampling concentrated in temperate and boreal secondary forests) of species assemblages of 26 taxonomic groups, including plants, animals, and fungi collected from forests affected by wildfires, windstorms, and insect outbreaks. The overall effect of natural disturbances on α-diversity did not differ significantly from zero, but some taxonomic groups responded positively to disturbance, while others tended to respond negatively. Disturbance was beneficial for taxonomic groups preferring conditions associated with open canopies (e.g. hymenopterans and hoverflies), whereas ground-dwelling groups and/or groups typically associated with shady conditions (e.g. epigeic lichens and mycorrhizal fungi) were more likely to be negatively impacted by disturbance. Across all taxonomic groups, the highest α-diversity in disturbed forest patches occurred under moderate disturbance severity, i.e. with approximately 55% of trees killed by disturbance. We further extended our meta-analysis by applying a unified diversity concept based on Hill numbers to estimate α-diversity changes in different taxonomic groups across a gradient of disturbance severity measured at the stand scale and incorporating other disturbance features. We found that disturbance severity negatively affected diversity for Hill number q = 0 but not for q = 1 and q = 2, indicating that diversity-disturbance relationships are shaped by species relative abundances. Our synthesis of α-diversity was extended by a synthesis of disturbance-induced change in species assemblages, and revealed that disturbance changes the β-diversity of multiple taxonomic groups, including some groups that were not affected at the α-diversity level (birds and woody plants). Finally, we used mixed rarefaction/extrapolation to estimate biodiversity change as a function of the proportion of forests that were disturbed, i.e. the disturbance extent measured at the landscape scale. The comparison of intact and naturally disturbed forests revealed that both types of forests provide habitat for unique species assemblages, whereas species diversity in the mixture of disturbed and undisturbed forests peaked at intermediate values of disturbance extent in the simulated landscape. Hence, the relationship between α-diversity and disturbance severity in disturbed forest stands was strikingly similar to the relationship between species richness and disturbance extent in a landscape consisting of both disturbed and undisturbed forest habitats. This result suggests that both moderate disturbance severity and moderate disturbance extent support the highest levels of biodiversity in contemporary forest landscapes.

Climate adaptation of biodiversity conservation in managed forest landscapes

Conservation of biodiversity in managed forest landscapes needs to be complemented with new approaches given the threat from rapid climate change. Most frameworks for adaptation of biodiversity conservation to climate change include two major strategies. The first is the resistance strategy, which focuses on actions to increase the capacity of species and communities to resist change. The second is the transformation strategy and includes actions that ease the transformation of communities to a set of species that are well adapted to the novel environmental conditions. We suggest a number of concrete actions policy makers and managers can take. Under the resistance strategy, five tools are introduced, including: identifying and protecting forest climate refugia with cold-favored species; reducing the effects of drought by protecting the hydrological network; and actively removing competitors when they threaten cold-favored species. Under the transformation strategy, we suggest three tools, including: enhancing conditions for forest species favored by the new climate, but currently disfavored by forest management, by planting them at suitable sites outside their main range; and increasing connectivity across the landscape to enhance the expansion of warm-favored species to sites that have become suitable. Finally, we suggest applying a landscape perspective and simultaneously managing for both retreating and expanding species. The two different strategies (resistance and transformation) should be seen as complementary ways to maintain a rich biodiversity in future forest ecosystems.

Interactive effects of drought and edge exposure on old-growth forest understory species

CONTEXT

Both climatic extremes and land-use change constitute severe threats to biodiversity, but their interactive effects remain poorly understood. In forest ecosystems, the effects of climatic extremes can be exacerbated at forest edges.

OBJECTIVES

We explored the hypothesis that an extreme summer drought reduced the richness and coverage of old-growth forest species, particularly in forest patches with high edge exposure.

METHODS

Using a high-resolution spatially explicit precipitation dataset, we could detect variability in drought intensity during the summer drought of 2018. We selected 60 old-growth boreal forest patches in central Sweden that differed in their level of drought intensity and amount of edge exposure. The year after the drought, we surveyed red-listed and old-growth forest indicator species of vascular plants, lichens and bryophytes. We assessed if species richness, composition, and coverage were related to drought intensity, edge exposure, and their interaction.

RESULTS

Species richness was negatively related to drought intensity in forest patches with a high edge exposure, but not in patches with less edge exposure. Patterns differed among organism groups and were strongest for cyanolichens, epiphytes associated with high-pH bark, and species occurring on convex substrates such as trees and logs.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that the effects of an extreme climatic event on forest species can vary strongly across a landscape. Edge exposed old-growth forest patches are more at risk under extreme climatic events than those in continuous forests. This suggest that maintaining buffer zones around forest patches with high conservation values should be an important conservation measure.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-022-01441-9.

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

Genetic composition and diversity of Arabica coffee in the crop's center of origin and its impact on four major fungal diseases

Conventional wisdom states that genetic variation reduces disease levels in plant populations. Nevertheless, crop species have been subject to a gradual loss of genetic variation through selection for specific traits during breeding, thereby increasing their vulnerability to biotic stresses such as pathogens. We explored how genetic variation in Arabica coffee sites in southwestern Ethiopia was related to the incidence of four major fungal diseases. Sixty sites were selected along a gradient of management intensity, ranging from nearly wild to intensively managed coffee stands. We used genotyping-by-sequencing of pooled leaf samples (pool-GBS) derived from 16 individual coffee shrubs in each of the sixty sites to assess the variation in genetic composition (multivariate: reference allele frequency) and genetic diversity (univariate: mean expected heterozygosity) between sites. We found that genetic composition had a clear spatial pattern and that genetic diversity was higher in less managed sites. The incidence of the four fungal diseases was related to the genetic composition of the coffee stands, but in a specific way for each disease. In contrast, genetic diversity was only related to the within-site variation of coffee berry disease, but not to the mean incidence of any of the four diseases across sites. Given that fungal diseases are major challenges of Arabica coffee in its native range, our findings that genetic composition of coffee sites impacted the major fungal diseases may serve as baseline information to study the molecular basis of disease resistance in coffee. Overall, our study illustrates the need to consider both host genetic composition and genetic diversity when investigating the genetic basis for variation in disease levels.

Maintaining forest cover to enhance temperature buffering under future climate change

Forest canopies buffer macroclimatic temperature fluctuations. However, we do not know if and how the capacity of canopies to buffer understorey temperature will change with accelerating climate change. Here we map the difference (offset) between temperatures inside and outside forests in the recent past and project these into the future in boreal, temperate and tropical forests. Using linear mixed-effect models, we combined a global database of 714 paired time series of temperatures (mean, minimum and maximum) measured inside forests vs. in nearby open habitats with maps of macroclimate, topography and forest cover to hindcast past (1970-2000) and to project future (2060-2080) temperature differences between free-air temperatures and sub-canopy microclimates. For all tested future climate scenarios, we project that the difference between maximum temperatures inside and outside forests across the globe will increase (i.e. result in stronger cooling in forests), on average during 2060-2080, by 0.27 ± 0.16 °C (RCP2.6) and 0.60 ± 0.14 °C (RCP8.5) due to macroclimate changes. This suggests that extremely hot temperatures under forest canopies will, on average, warm less than outside forests as macroclimate warms. This knowledge is of utmost importance as it suggests that forest microclimates will warm at a slower rate than non-forested areas, assuming that forest cover is maintained. Species adapted to colder growing conditions may thus find shelter and survive longer than anticipated at a given forest site. This highlights the potential role of forests as a whole as microrefugia for biodiversity under future climate change.

ForestTemp - Sub-canopy microclimate temperatures of European forests

Ecological research heavily relies on coarse-gridded climate data based on standardized temperature measurements recorded at 2 m height in open landscapes. However, many organisms experience environmental conditions that differ substantially from those captured by these macroclimatic (i.e. free air) temperature grids. In forests, the tree canopy functions as a thermal insulator and buffers sub-canopy microclimatic conditions, thereby affecting biological and ecological processes. To improve the assessment of climatic conditions and climate-change-related impacts on forest-floor biodiversity and functioning, high-resolution temperature grids reflecting forest microclimates are thus urgently needed. Combining more than 1200 time series of in situ near-surface forest temperature with topographical, biological and macroclimatic variables in a machine learning model, we predicted the mean monthly offset between sub-canopy temperature at 15 cm above the surface and free-air temperature over the period 2000-2020 at a spatial resolution of 25 m across Europe. This offset was used to evaluate the difference between microclimate and macroclimate across space and seasons and finally enabled us to calculate mean annual and monthly temperatures for European forest understories. We found that sub-canopy air temperatures differ substantially from free-air temperatures, being on average 2.1°C (standard deviation ± 1.6°C) lower in summer and 2.0°C higher (±0.7°C) in winter across Europe. Additionally, our high-resolution maps expose considerable microclimatic variation within landscapes, not captured by the gridded macroclimatic products. The provided forest sub-canopy temperature maps will enable future research to model below-canopy biological processes and patterns, as well as species distributions more accurately.

Genetic variation and reproductive patterns in wetland mosses suggest efficient initial colonization of disturbed sites

To understand colonization processes, it is critical to fully assess the role of dispersal in shaping biogeographical patterns at the gene, individual, population, and community levels. We test two alternative hypotheses (H I and H II) for the colonization of disturbed sites by clonal plants, by analyzing intraspecific genetic variation in one and reproductive traits in two typical fen mosses with separate sexes and intermittent spore dispersal, comparing disturbed, early-succession (limed) fens and late-successional rich fens. H I suggests initial colonization of disturbed sites by diverse genotypes of which fewer remain in late-successional fens and an initially balanced sex ratio that develops into a possibly skewed population sex ratio. H II suggests initial colonization by few genotypes and gradual accumulation of additional genotypes and an initially skewed sex ratio that alters into the species-specific sex ratio, during succession. Under both scenarios, we expect enhanced sexual reproduction in late-successional fens due to resource gains and decreased intermate distances when clones expand. We show that the intraspecific genetic diversity, assessed by two molecular markers, in Scorpidium cossonii was higher and the genetic variation among sites was smaller in disturbed than late-successional rich fens. Sex ratio was balanced in S. cossonii and Campylium stellatum in disturbed fens and skewed in C. stellatum in late-successional fens, thus supporting H I. In line with our prediction, sex expression incidence was higher in, and sporophytes were confined to, late-succession compared to disturbed rich fens. Late-successional S. cossonii sites had more within-site patches with two or more genotypes, and both species displayed higher sex expression levels in late-successional than in disturbed sites. We conclude that diverse genotypes and both sexes disperse efficiently to, and successfully colonize new sites, while patterns of genetic variation and sexual reproduction in late-successional rich fens are gradually shaped by local conditions and interactions over extended time periods.

A social-ecological assessment of food security and biodiversity conservation in Ethiopia

We studied food security and biodiversity conservation from a social-ecological perspective in southwestern Ethiopia. Specialist tree, bird, and mammal species required large, undisturbed forest, supporting the notion of 'land sparing' for conservation. However, our findings also suggest that forest areas should be embedded within a multifunctional landscape matrix (i.e. 'land sharing'), because farmland also supported many species and ecosystem services and was the basis of diversified livelihoods. Diversified livelihoods improved smallholder food security, while lack of access to capital assets and crop raiding by wild forest animals negatively influenced food security. Food and biodiversity governance lacked coordination and was strongly hierarchical, with relatively few stakeholders being highly powerful. Our study shows that issues of livelihoods, access to resources, governance and equity are central when resolving challenges around food security and biodiversity. A multi-facetted, social-ecological approach is better able to capture such complexity than the conventional, two-dimensional land sparing versus sharing framework.

Forest microclimates and climate change: Importance, drivers and future research agenda

Forest microclimates contrast strongly with the climate outside forests. To fully understand and better predict how forests' biodiversity and functions relate to climate and climate change, microclimates need to be integrated into ecological research. Despite the potentially broad impact of microclimates on the response of forest ecosystems to global change, our understanding of how microclimates within and below tree canopies modulate biotic responses to global change at the species, community and ecosystem level is still limited. Here, we review how spatial and temporal variation in forest microclimates result from an interplay of forest features, local water balance, topography and landscape composition. We first stress and exemplify the importance of considering forest microclimates to understand variation in biodiversity and ecosystem functions across forest landscapes. Next, we explain how macroclimate warming (of the free atmosphere) can affect microclimates, and vice versa, via interactions with land-use changes across different biomes. Finally, we perform a priority ranking of future research avenues at the interface of microclimate ecology and global change biology, with a specific focus on three key themes: (1) disentangling the abiotic and biotic drivers and feedbacks of forest microclimates; (2) global and regional mapping and predictions of forest microclimates; and (3) the impacts of microclimate on forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of climate change. The availability of microclimatic data will significantly increase in the coming decades, characterizing climate variability at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales relevant to biological processes in forests. This will revolutionize our understanding of the dynamics, drivers and implications of forest microclimates on biodiversity and ecological functions, and the impacts of global changes. In order to support the sustainable use of forests and to secure their biodiversity and ecosystem services for future generations, microclimates cannot be ignored.

Multi-scale mosaics in top-down pest control by ants from natural coffee forests to plantations

While top-down control plays an important role in shaping both natural and agricultural food webs, we lack insights into how top-down control effects vary across spatial scales. We used a multi-scale survey of top-down control of coffee pests and diseases by arboreal ants to examine if colony location creates a small-scale mosaic in top-down control around trees and if the strength of that control varies between sites at the landscape scale. We investigated pest and disease levels on coffee shrubs at different distances from shade trees with and without a Crematogaster spp. ant colony in 59 sites along a coffee management intensity gradient in southwestern Ethiopia. Within sites, ants significantly suppressed herbivory and coffee leaf rust at distances less than 10 m from nesting trees. Top-down control varied between sites, with stronger top-down control of free-feeding herbivory near ant colonies at sites with lower management intensity and stronger top-down control of a skeletonizer at sites with higher canopy cover. We conclude that the strength of top-down control by ants is highly heterogeneous across spatial scales, as a consequence of the biology of the predator at the small scale and herbivore density or changes in herbivore-ant interactions at the landscape scale.

Ecosystem restoration in fire-managed savanna woodlands: Effects on biodiversity, local livelihoods and fire intensity

Ethiopia aims to restore 15 million ha degraded forests and woodlands, but effects on the potentially contrasting goals of long-term carbon storage, biodiversity and sustainable livelihoods are unknown. To quantify the effects of grazing exclusion on vegetation and fire behaviour, we established six 30 × 30 m fenced exclosures with grazed controls, in a mesic wooded savanna. Experimental burns were done after 1.5 years. Tree seedlings were few but more common inside fences. Field layer cover and biomass increased inside fences, and grass species increased in numbers and cover. Fire intensity was higher inside fences, killing shrubs and saplings but not mature trees. Interviews confirmed that overgrazing has resulted in "cool fires", causing shrub encroachment. High-intensity fires occurred in the 1980s after a zoonotic disease killed most livestock. Short-term increase in carbon storage through fire and grazing exclusion may lead to loss of pasture, and in the long-term increased wildfire risk.

SoilTemp: A global database of near-surface temperature

Current analyses and predictions of spatially explicit patterns and processes in ecology most often rely on climate data interpolated from standardized weather stations. This interpolated climate data represents long-term average thermal conditions at coarse spatial resolutions only. Hence, many climate-forcing factors that operate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions are overlooked. This is particularly important in relation to effects of observation height (e.g. vegetation, snow and soil characteristics) and in habitats varying in their exposure to radiation, moisture and wind (e.g. topography, radiative forcing or cold-air pooling). Since organisms living close to the ground relate more strongly to these microclimatic conditions than to free-air temperatures, microclimatic ground and near-surface data are needed to provide realistic forecasts of the fate of such organisms under anthropogenic climate change, as well as of the functioning of the ecosystems they live in. To fill this critical gap, we highlight a call for temperature time series submissions to SoilTemp, a geospatial database initiative compiling soil and near-surface temperature data from all over the world. Currently, this database contains time series from 7,538 temperature sensors from 51 countries across all key biomes. The database will pave the way toward an improved global understanding of microclimate and bridge the gap between the available climate data and the climate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions relevant to most organisms and ecosystem processes.

Intraspecific variation influences performance of moss transplants along microclimate gradients

Identifying the environmental drivers of population dynamics is crucial to predict changes in species abundances and distributions under climate change. Populations of the same species might differ in their responses as a result of intraspecific variation. Yet the importance of such differences remains largely unexplored. We examined the responses of latitudinally distant populations of the forest moss Hylocomiastrum umbratum along microclimate gradients in Sweden. We transplanted moss mats from southern and northern populations to 30 sites with contrasting microclimates (i.e., replicated field common gardens) within a forest landscape, and recorded growth and survival of individual shoots over 3 yr. To evaluate the importance of intraspecific variation in responses to environmental factors, we assessed effects of the interactions between population origin and microclimate drivers on growth and survival. Effects on overall performance of transplanted populations were estimated using the product of survival and growth. We found differences between southern and northern populations in the response to summer temperature and snowmelt date in one of three yearly transitions. In this year, southern populations performed better in warm, southern‐like conditions than in cold, northern‐like conditions; and the reverse pattern was true for northern populations. Survival of all populations decreased with evaporation, consistent with the high hydric demands and poikilohydric nature of mosses. Our results are consistent with population adaptation to local climate, and suggest that intraspecific variation among populations can have important effects on the response of species to microclimate drivers. These findings highlight the need to account for differential responses in predictions of species abundance and distribution under climate change.

Hiding from the climate: Characterizing microrefugia for boreal forest understory species

Climate warming is likely to shift the range margins of species poleward, but fine-scale temperature differences near the ground (microclimates) may modify these range shifts. For example, cold-adapted species may survive in microrefugia when the climate gets warmer. However, it is still largely unknown to what extent cold microclimates govern the local persistence of populations at their warm range margin. We located 99 microrefugia, defined as sites with edge populations of 12 widespread boreal forest understory species (vascular plants, mosses, liverworts and lichens) in an area of ca. 24,000 km² along the species' southern range margin in central Sweden. Within each population, a logger measured temperature eight times per day during one full year. Using univariate and multivariate analyses, we examined the differences of the populations' microclimates with the mean and range of microclimates in the landscape, and identified the typical climate, vegetation and topographic features of these habitats. Comparison sites were drawn from another logger data set (n = 110), and from high-resolution microclimate maps. The microrefugia were mainly places characterized by lower summer and autumn maximum temperatures, late snow melt dates and high climate stability. Microrefugia also had higher forest basal area and lower solar radiation in spring and autumn than the landscape average. Although there were common trends across northern species in how microrefugia differed from the landscape average, there were also interspecific differences and some species contributed more than others to the overall results. Our findings provide biologically meaningful criteria to locate and spatially predict potential climate microrefugia in the boreal forest. This opens up the opportunity to protect valuable sites, and adapt forest management, for example, by keeping old-growth forests at topographically shaded sites. These measures may help to mitigate the loss of genetic and species diversity caused by rear-edge contractions in a warmer climate.

Under which humidity conditions are moss spores released? A comparison between species with perfect and specialized peristomes

Dispersal is a fundamental biological process that can be divided into three phases: release, transportation, and deposition. Determining the mechanisms of diaspore release is of prime importance to understand under which climatic conditions and at which frequency diaspores are released and transported. In mosses, wherein spore dispersal takes place through the hygroscopic movements of the peristome, the factors enhancing spore release has received little attention. Here, we determine the levels of relative humidity (RH) at which peristome movements are induced, contrasting the response of species with perfect (fully developed) and specialized (reduced) peristomes. All nine investigated species with perfect peristomes displayed a xerochastic behavior, initiating a closing movement from around 50%-65% RH upon increasing humidity and an opening movement from around 90% RH upon drying. Five of the seven species with specialized peristomes exhibited a hygrochastic behavior, initiating an opening movement under increasing RH (from about 80%) and a closing movement upon drying (from about 90%). These differences between species with hygrochastic and xerochastic peristomes suggest that spore dispersal does not randomly occur regardless of the prevailing climate conditions, which can impact their dispersal distances. In species with xerochastic peristomes, the release of spores under decreasing RH can be interpreted as an adaptive mechanism to disperse spores under optimal conditions for long-distance wind dispersal. In species with hygrochastic peristomes, conversely, the release of spores under wet conditions, which decreases their wind long-distance dispersal capacities, might be seen as a safe-site strategy, forcing spores to land in appropriate (micro-) habitats where their survival is favored. Significant variations were observed in the RH thresholds triggering peristome movements among species, especially in those with hygrochastic peristomes, raising the question of what mechanisms are responsible for such differences.

Disturbance from traditional fire management in subalpine heathlands increases Afro-alpine plant resilience to climate change

Species are often controlled by biotic factors such as competition at the warm edge of their distribution range. Disturbances at the treeline, disrupting competitive dominance, may thus enable alpine species to utilize lower altitudes. We searched for evidence for range expansion in grazed, fire-managed Ethiopian subalpine Erica heathlands across a 25-year chronosequence. We examined vascular plant composition in 48 plots (5 × 5 m) across an altitudinal range of 3,465-3,711 m.a.s.l. and analyzed how community composition changed in relation to increasing competition over time (using a Shade index based on Erica shrub height and cover) and altitude. Species' habitats and altitudinal ranges were derived from literature. Time since fire explained more variation (r²  = .41) in species composition than altitude did (r²  = .32) in an NMDS analysis. Community-weighted altitudinal optima for species in a plot decreased strongly with increasing shade (GLM, Standardized Regression Coefficient SRC = -.41, p = .003), but increased only weakly with altitude (SRC = .26, p = .054). In other words, young stands were dominated by species with higher altitudinal optima than old stands. Forest species richness increased with Log Shade index (SRC = .12, p = .008), but was unaffected by altitude (SRC = -.07, p = .13). However, richness of alpine and heathland species was not highest in plots with lowest Shade index, but displayed a unimodal pattern with an initial increase, followed by a decrease when shading increased (altitude was not significant). Our results indicate that disturbance from the traditional patch burning increases the available habitat for less competitive high-altitude plants and prevents tree line ascent. Therefore, maintaining, but regulating, the traditional land use increases the Afro-alpine flora's resilience to global warming. However, this system is threatened by a new REDD+ program attempting to increase carbon storage via fire suppression. This study highlights the importance of understanding traditional management regimes for biodiversity conservation in cultural landscapes in an era of global change.

Reframing the Food-Biodiversity Challenge

Given the serious limitations of production-oriented frameworks, we offer here a new conceptual framework for how to analyze the nexus of food security and biodiversity conservation. We introduce four archetypes of social-ecological system states corresponding to win-win (e.g., agroecology), win-lose (e.g., intensive agriculture), lose-win (e.g., fortress conservation), and lose-lose (e.g., degraded landscapes) outcomes for food security and biodiversity conservation. Each archetype is shaped by characteristic external drivers, exhibits characteristic internal social-ecological features, and has characteristic feedbacks that maintain it. This framework shifts the emphasis from focusing on production only to considering social-ecological dynamics, and enables comparison among landscapes. Moreover, examining drivers and feedbacks facilitates the analysis of possible transitions between system states (e.g., from a lose-lose outcome to a more preferred outcome).

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

A heterogeneous landscape does not guarantee high crop pollination

The expansion of pollinator-dependent crops, especially in the developing world, together with reports of worldwide pollinator declines, raises concern of possible yield gaps. Farmers directly reliant on pollination services for food supply often live in regions where our knowledge of pollination services is poor. In a manipulative experiment replicated at 23 sites across an Ethiopian agricultural landscape, we found poor pollination services and severe pollen limitation in a common oil crop. With supplementary pollination, the yield increased on average by 91%. Despite the heterogeneous agricultural matrix, we found a low bee abundance, which may explain poor pollination services. The variation in pollen limitation was unrelated to surrounding forest cover, local bee richness and bee abundance. While practices that commonly increase pollinators (restricted pesticide use, flower strips) are an integral part of the landscape, these elements are apparently insufficient. Management to increase pollination services is therefore in need of urgent investigation.

Arthropod but not bird predation in ethiopian homegardens is higher in tree-poor than in tree-rich landscapes

Bird and arthropod predation is often associated with natural pest control in agricultural landscapes, but the rates of predation may vary with the amount of tree cover or other environmental factors. We examined bird and arthropod predation in three tree-rich and three tree-poor landscapes across southwestern Ethiopia. Within each landscape we selected three tree-rich and three tree-poor homegardens in which we recorded the number of tree species and tree stems within 100 × 100 m surrounding the central house. To estimate predation rates, we attached plasticine caterpillars on leaves of two coffee and two avocado shrubs in each homegarden, and recorded the number of attacked caterpillars for 7–9 consecutive weeks. The overall mean daily predation rate was 1.45% for birds and 1.60% for arthropods. The rates of arthropod predation varied among landscapes and were higher in tree-poor landscapes. There was no such difference for birds. Within landscapes, predation rates from birds and arthropods did not vary between tree-rich and tree-poor homegardens in either tree-rich or tree-poor landscapes. The most surprising result was the lack of response by birds to tree cover at either spatial scale. Our results suggest that in tree-poor landscapes there are still enough non-crop habitats to support predatory arthropods and birds to deliver strong top-down effect on crop pests.

Predicting climate change effects on wetland ecosystem services using species distribution modeling and plant functional traits

Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services, the sustainable use of which requires knowledge of the underlying ecological mechanisms. Functional traits, particularly the community-weighted mean trait (CWMT), provide a strong link between species communities and ecosystem functioning. We here combine species distribution modeling and plant functional traits to estimate the direction of change of ecosystem processes under climate change. We model changes in CWMT values for traits relevant to three key services, focusing on the regional species pool in the Norrström area (central Sweden) and three main wetland types. Our method predicts proportional shifts toward faster growing, more productive and taller species, which tend to increase CWMT values of specific leaf area and canopy height, whereas changes in root depth vary. The predicted changes in CWMT values suggest a potential increase in flood attenuation services, a potential increase in short (but not long)-term nutrient retention, and ambiguous outcomes for carbon sequestration.

Microrefugia: Not for everyone

Microrefugia are sites that support populations of species when their ranges contract during unfavorable climate episodes. Here, we review and discuss two aspects relevant for microrefugia. First, distributions of different species are influenced by different climatic variables. Second, climatic variables differ in the degree of local decoupling from the regional climate. Based on this, we suggest that only species limited by climatic conditions decoupled from the regional climate can benefit from microrefugia. We argue that this restriction has received little attention in spite of its importance for microrefugia as a mechanism for species resilience (the survival of unfavorable episodes and subsequent range expansion). Presence of microrefugia will depend on both the responses of individual species to local climatic variation and how climate-forcing factors shape the correlation between local and regional climate across space and time.

The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – http://www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.

Effects of coffee management on deforestation rates and forest integrity

Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest-agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973-2010) across elevations in 2 forest-agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km(2) around Bonga and 3000 km(2) in Goma-Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee-growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (-10/20% vs. -40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300-2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee-growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest-specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual-crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation risks than forests with coffee production and that forests with coffee production often have lower biodiversity value.

Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km(2) ) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m(2) units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km(2) units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km(2) units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46-72% of variation in LmT and 92-96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km(2) units peaked at 60-65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km(2) units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km(-1) ) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 °C km(-1) ). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km(2) units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.

The mechanisms causing extinction debts

Extinction debts can result from many types of habitat changes involving mechanisms other than metapopulation processes. This is a fact that most recent literature on extinction debts pays little attention to. We argue that extinction debts can arise because (i) individuals survive in resistant life-cycle stages long after habitat quality change, (ii) stochastic extinctions of populations that have become small are not immediate, and (iii) metapopulations survive long after that connectivity has decreased if colonization-extinction dynamics is slow. A failure to distinguish between these different mechanisms and to simultaneously consider both the size of the extinction debt and the relaxation time hampers our understanding of how extinction debts arise and our ability to prevent ultimate extinctions.

The fate of the missing spores--patterns of realized dispersal beyond the closest vicinity of a sporulating moss

It is well-known that many species with small diaspores can disperse far during extended temporal scales (many years). However, studies on short temporal scales usually only cover short distances (in, e.g., bryophytes up to 15 m). By using a novel experimental design, studying the realized dispersal, we extend this range by almost two orders of magnitude. We recorded establishment of the fast-growing moss Discelium nudum on introduced suitable substrates, placed around a translocated, sporulating mother colony. Around 2,000 pots with acidic clay were placed at different distances between 5 m and 600 m, in four directions, on a raised bog, with increased pot numbers with distance. The experiment was set up in April–May and the realized dispersal (number of colonized pots) was recorded in September. Close to the mother colony (up to 10 m), the mean colonization rates (ratio of colonized pots) exceeded 50%. At distances between 10 and 50 m colonization dropped sharply, but beyond 50 m the mean colonization rates stabilized and hardly changed (1–3%). The estimated density of spores causing establishments at the further distances (2–6 spores/m²) was realistic when compared to the estimated spore output from the central colonies. Our study supports calculations from earlier studies, limited to short distances, that a majority of the spores disperse beyond the nearest vicinity of a source. The even colonization pattern at further distances raises interesting questions about under what conditions spores are transported and deposited. However, it is clear that regular establishment is likely at the km-scale for this and many other species with similar spore output and dispersal mechanism.

Boulders increase resistance to clear-cut logging but not subsequent recolonization rates of boreal bryophytes

The extent to which a plant assemblage might recolonize a disturbed system is in general related to the availability of propagule sources and sites with appropriate conditions for establishment. Both these factors might be sensitive to aspects of spatial heterogeneity. Microtopographic variation may enhance initial resistance by reducing the impact of the disturbance and facilitating establishment of incoming propagules by providing shaded "safe-sites". This study explores the influence of microtopographic heterogeneity (caused by variation in surface boulder cover) on the recolonization of closed-canopy forest floor bryophytes using a chronosequence of 75 spruce-dominated forests in south-central Sweden (2-163 years after clear-cutting). We found that high boulder cover did increase survival and subsequent persistence in young forests at both investigated scales (i.e. 1,000 and 100 m(2)), although this pattern became less evident on the smaller spatial scale. Species accumulation in boulder-poor subplots was not different when surrounded by boulder-rich compared with boulder-poor subplots suggesting short-distance recolonization from boulder-created refugia to be of little importance during recolonization. To conclude, it seems that boulders increase initial resistance to clear-cutting for this bryophyte guild, but that the subsequent recolonization process is more likely to depend on external propagule sources and factors affecting establishment such as the microclimate in the developing stand.

Effect of forest clear-cutting on subtropical bryophyte communities in waterfalls, on dripping walls, and along streams

Forested freshwater ecosystems worldwide are threatened by a number of anthropogenic disturbances, such as water pollution and canalization. Transient or permanent deforestation can also be a serious threat to organisms in forested watersheds, but its effects on different types of freshwater systems has been little studied. We investigated lotic bryophyte communities on rock and soil in subtropical cloud laurel forests on La Gomera Island in the Canary Islands, Spain, and asked whether the response to forest clear-cutting varied among the communities associated with dripping walls, streams, and waterfalls. We compared three successional forest stages: ancient forests (> 250 years), young forests (20-50 years after clear-cutting), and open stands (5-15 years after clear-cutting). In each of 56 study sites we sampled general vegetation and substrate data in a 0.01-ha plot and took composition data of bryophyte species in 3 + 3 subplots of 1 x 1 m. The general pattern of decline in species richness and change in species composition after forest clear-cutting was stronger for streamside assemblages compared to assemblages on dripping walls and in waterfalls. The change in species numbers on rocks was larger than that on soils, because a guild of species growing on soil (but not on rocks) were favored by disturbance and thus increased in the disturbed sites. Most of the sensitive species could be classified as typical laurel forest species. Mosses were generally more tolerant to forest clear-cutting than were liverworts. We suggest that streamsides are more sensitive to disturbance than waterfalls and dripping walls because of a larger variation in microclimate before than after clear-cutting and because they are more easily invaded by early-successional species (both bryophytes and highly competitive vascular plants). We propose that special care should be taken along small streams within disturbed watersheds if bryophyte assemblages and threatened species should be protected. The susceptibility to anthropogenic pressures is probably rather high in ecosystems that do not regularly experience large-scale stand-replacing disturbances, especially on oceanic islands because of isolation and a small total habitat area for focal organisms.

No increase in colonization rate of boreal bryophytes close to propagule sources

Knowledge of the process of recolonization, and which temporal and spatial scale it operates on, is central to our understanding of species distributions, metapopulation dynamics, regional extinction risks, and ecosystem resilience. In this study the recolonization pattern of boreal forest bryophytes was investigated in stands that had been clear-cut approximately 50 years ago. Species known to be sensitive to clear-cutting were inventoried in 23 mature forest stands and in adjacent young stands at 10, 20, 40, and 80 m from the former forest-clear-cut edge. Based on previous studies showing that bryophytes tend to be dispersal limited at local population levels, it was hypothesized that the recolonizaton of many bryophyte species should be higher closer to the mature forest edge. It was also hypothesized that some species would show full recovery, while for others the young stands would still be inhospitable. All these patterns were found for individual species, but the main pattern was, however, quite different. Most species had started to recolonize the young stands (i.e., little or much, depending on species), but without any tendency of a higher colonization rate close to the mature stands. Possible explanations for the limited signs of positive influence of local propagule sources might be microsite limitation or that the local propagule availability displays a rapid decline from its sources and is masked by a higher regional propagule rain. For organisms with light propagules able to build up a regional background level, the role of mature forest stands in the recolonization process of the matrix may rather be to contribute to the regional background level of spores in the landscape than to affect the adjacent stands directly.

Complementary roles of home gardens and exotic tree plantations as alternative habitats for plants of the Ethiopian montane rainforest

Many tropical forests have been converted for agri- or silviculture or a combination of both (agroforestry). Conservation at a landscape scale requires an understanding of the distribution and abundance of native biodiversity in these converted natural ecosystems, of which the knowledge is especially poor for African agroecosystems. We compared species density and species composition of four plant groups (trees and shrubs, epiphytic vascular plants, mosses, and liverworts) among three arboreal land-use types in southwestern Ethiopia (montane rainforest fragments, shade-tree coffee home gardens, and exotic tree plantations). Species density was significantly higher in forests than in coffee home gardens for all plant groups and in exotic tree plantations for all groups except mosses. Home gardens had more vascular epiphytic species than plantations, whereas the reverse was true for mosses and liverworts. The species composition of the forest plots was sometimes more similar to home-garden plots than plantation plots and sometimes vice versa. Fifteen forest plots had, however, cumulatively more species than a random selection of 15 nonforest (coffee home garden and plantation) plots, even if the 2 plot types complemented each other in terms of habitats for forest plants. Tree plantations dominated by Eucalyptus had many small trees and shrubs in common with forests, whereas plantations with Cupressus were important substrates for forests mosses and liverworts. Our results illustrate the importance of undisturbed forests habitats for conservation of species at a landscape scale and that different human-made land-use types may complement each other in their capacity as additional habitats for forest species.