Humanity's diverse predatory niche and its ecological consequences

Although humans have long been predators with enduring nutritive and cultural relationships with their prey, seldom have conservation ecologists considered the divergent predatory behavior of contemporary, industrialized humans. Recognizing that the number, strength and diversity of predator-prey relationships can profoundly influence biodiversity, here we analyze humanity's modern day predatory interactions with vertebrates and estimate their ecological consequences. Analysing IUCN 'use and trade' data for ~47,000 species, we show that fishers, hunters and other animal collectors prey on more than a third (~15,000 species) of Earth's vertebrates. Assessed over equivalent ranges, humans exploit up to 300 times more species than comparable non-human predators. Exploitation for the pet trade, medicine, and other uses now affects almost as many species as those targeted for food consumption, and almost 40% of exploited species are threatened by human use. Trait space analyses show that birds and mammals threatened by exploitation occupy a disproportionally large and unique region of ecological trait space, now at risk of loss. These patterns suggest far more species are subject to human-imposed ecological (e.g., landscapes of fear) and evolutionary (e.g., harvest selection) processes than previously considered. Moreover, continued overexploitation will likely bear profound consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem function.

History's legacy: Why future progress in ecology demands a view of the past

History has profoundly affected the composition, distribution, and abundances of species in contemporary ecosystems. A full understanding of how ecosystems work and change must therefore take history into account. We offer four well-studied examples illustrating how a knowledge of history has strengthened interpretations of modern systems: the development of molluscan antipredatory defenses in relation to shell-breaking predators; the North Pacific kelp ecosystem with sea otters, smaller predators, sea urchins, and large herbivores; estuarine ecosystems affected by the decline in oysters and other suspension feeders; and the legacy of extinct large herbivores and frugivores in tropical American forests. Many current ecological problems would greatly benefit from a historical perspective. We highlight four of these: soil depletion and tree stunting in forests related to the disappearance of large consumers; the spread of anoxic dead zones in the ocean, which we argue could be mitigated by restoring predator and suspension-feeding guilds; ocean acidification, which would be alleviated by more nutrient recycling by consumers in the aerobic ecosystem; and the relation between species diversity and keystone predators, a foundational concept that is complicated by simplified trophic relationships in modern ecosystems.

Genomic basis for skin phenotype and cold adaptation in the extinct Steller's sea cow

Steller's sea cow, an extinct sirenian and one of the largest Quaternary mammals, was described by Georg Steller in 1741 and eradicated by humans within 27 years. Here, we complement Steller's descriptions with paleogenomic data from 12 individuals. We identified convergent evolution between Steller's sea cow and cetaceans but not extant sirenians, suggesting a role of several genes in adaptation to cold aquatic (or marine) environments. Among these are inactivations of lipoxygenase genes, which in humans and mouse models cause ichthyosis, a skin disease characterized by a thick, hyperkeratotic epidermis that recapitulates Steller's sea cows' reportedly bark-like skin. We also found that Steller's sea cows' abundance was continuously declining for tens of thousands of years before their description, implying that environmental changes also contributed to their extinction.

Southeast Alaskan kelp forests: inferences of process from large-scale patterns of variation in space and time

Humans were considered external drivers in much foundational ecological research. A recognition that humans are embedded in the complex interaction networks we study can provide new insight into our ecological paradigms. Here, we use time-series data spanning three decades to explore the effects of human harvesting on otter-urchin-kelp trophic cascades in southeast Alaska. These effects were inferred from variation in sea urchin and kelp abundance following the post fur trade repatriation of otters and a subsequent localized reduction of otters by human harvest in one location. In an example of a classic trophic cascade, otter repatriation was followed by a 99% reduction in urchin biomass density and a greater than 99% increase in kelp density region wide. Recent spatially concentrated harvesting of otters was associated with a localized 70% decline in otter abundance in one location, with urchins increasing and kelps declining in accordance with the spatial pattern of otter occupancy within that region. While the otter-urchin-kelp trophic cascade has been associated with alternative community states at the regional scale, this research highlights how small-scale variability in otter occupancy, ostensibly due to spatial variability in harvesting or the risk landscape for otters, can result in within-region patchiness in these community states.

Physical disturbance by recovering sea otter populations increases eelgrass genetic diversity

[Figure: see text].

Keystone predators govern the pathway and pace of climate impacts in a subarctic marine ecosystem

Predator loss and climate change are hallmarks of the Anthropocene yet their interactive effects are largely unknown. Here, we show that massive calcareous reefs, built slowly by the alga Clathromorphum nereostratum over centuries to millennia, are now declining because of the emerging interplay between these two processes. Such reefs, the structural base of Aleutian kelp forests, are rapidly eroding because of overgrazing by herbivores. Historical reconstructions and experiments reveal that overgrazing was initiated by the loss of sea otters, Enhydra lutris (which gave rise to herbivores capable of causing bioerosion), and then accelerated with ocean warming and acidification (which increased per capita lethal grazing by 34 to 60% compared with preindustrial times). Thus, keystone predators can mediate the ways in which climate effects emerge in nature and the pace with which they alter ecosystems.

Size, growth, and density data for shallow-water sea urchins from Mexico to the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, 1956-2016

Size, growth, and density have been studied for North American Pacific coast sea urchins Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, S. droebachiensis, S. polyacanthus, Mesocentrotus (Strongylocentrotus) franciscanus, Lytechinus pictus, Centrostephanus coronatus, and Arbacia stellata by various workers at diverse sites and for varying lengths of time from 1956 to present. Numerous peer-reviewed publications have used some of these data but some data have appeared only in graduate theses or the gray literature. There also are data that have never appeared outside original data sheets. Motivation for studies has included fisheries management and environmental monitoring of sewer and power plant outfalls as well as changes associated with disease epidemics. Studies also have focused on kelp restoration, community effects of sea otters, basic sea urchin biology, and monitoring. The data sets presented here are a historical record of size, density, and growth for a common group of marine invertebrates in intertidal and nearshore environments that can be used to test hypotheses concerning future changes associated with fisheries practices, shifts of predator distributions, climate and ecosystem changes, and ocean acidification along the Pacific Coast of North America and islands of the north Pacific. No copyright restrictions apply. Please credit this paper when using the data.

Global patterns of kelp forest change over the past half-century

Kelp forests (Order Laminariales) form key biogenic habitats in coastal regions of temperate and Arctic seas worldwide, providing ecosystem services valued in the range of billions of dollars annually. Although local evidence suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of stressors, no comprehensive global analysis of change in kelp abundances currently exists. Here, we build and analyze a global database of kelp time series spanning the past half-century to assess regional and global trends in kelp abundances. We detected a high degree of geographic variation in trends, with regional variability in the direction and magnitude of change far exceeding a small global average decline (instantaneous rate of change = -0.018 y-1). Our analysis identified declines in 38% of ecoregions for which there are data (-0.015 to -0.18 y-1), increases in 27% of ecoregions (0.015 to 0.11 y-1), and no detectable change in 35% of ecoregions. These spatially variable trajectories reflected regional differences in the drivers of change, uncertainty in some regions owing to poor spatial and temporal data coverage, and the dynamic nature of kelp populations. We conclude that although global drivers could be affecting kelp forests at multiple scales, local stressors and regional variation in the effects of these drivers dominate kelp dynamics, in contrast to many other marine and terrestrial foundation species.

A keystone ecologist: Robert Treat Paine, 1933-2016

Robert T. Paine, who passed away on 13 June 2016, is among the most influential people in the history of ecology. Paine was an experimentalist, a theoretician, a practitioner, and proponent of the "ecology of place," and a deep believer in the importance of natural history to ecological understanding. His scientific legacy grew from the discovery of a link between top-down forcing and species diversity, a breakthrough that led to the ideas of both keystone species and trophic cascades, and to our early understanding of the mosaic nature of biological communities, causes of zonation across physical gradients, and the intermediate-disturbance hypothesis of species diversity. Paine's influence as a mentor was equally important to the growth of ecological thinking, natural resource conservation, and policy. He served ecology as an Ecological Society of America president, an editor of the Society's journals, a member of and contributor to the National Academy of Sciences and the National Research Council, and an in-demand advisor to various state and federal agencies. Paine's broad interests, enthusiasm, charisma, and humor deeply affected our lives and the lives of so many others.

Characterizing Species Interactions to Understand Press Perturbations: What Is the Community Matrix?

The community matrix is among ecology's most important mathematical abstractions, formally encapsulating the interconnected network of effects that species have on one another's populations. Despite its importance, the term “community matrix” has been applied to multiple types of matrices that have differing interpretations. This has hindered the application of theory for understanding community structure and perturbation responses. Here, we clarify the correspondence and distinctions among the Interaction matrix, the Alpha matrix, and the Jacobian matrix, terms that are frequently used interchangeably as well as synonymously with the term “community matrix.” We illustrate how these matrices correspond to different ways of characterizing interaction strengths, how they permit insights regarding different types of press perturbations, and how these are related by a simple scaling relationship. Connections to additional interaction strength characterizations encapsulated by the Beta matrix, the Gamma matrix, and the Removal matrix are also discussed. Our synthesis highlights the empirical challenges that remain in using these tools to understand actual communities.

Sea otters, kelp forests, and the extinction of Steller's sea cow

The late Pleistocene extinction of so many large-bodied vertebrates has been variously attributed to two general causes: rapid climate change and the effects of humans as they spread from the Old World to previously uninhabited continents and islands. Many large-bodied vertebrates, especially large apex predators, maintain their associated ecosystems through top-down forcing processes, especially trophic cascades, and megaherbivores also exert an array of strong indirect effects on their communities. Thus, a third possibility for at least some of the Pleistocene extinctions is that they occurred through habitat changes resulting from the loss of these other keystone species. Here we explore the plausibility of this mechanism, using information on sea otters, kelp forests, and the recent extinction of Steller's sea cows from the Commander Islands. Large numbers of sea cows occurred in the Commander Islands at the time of their discovery by Europeans in 1741. Although extinction of these last remaining sea cows during early years of the Pacific maritime fur trade is widely thought to be a consequence of direct human overkill, we show that it is also a probable consequence of the loss of sea otters and the co-occurring loss of kelp, even if not a single sea cow had been killed directly by humans. This example supports the hypothesis that the directly caused extinctions of a few large vertebrates in the late Pleistocene may have resulted in the coextinction of numerous other species.

The cost of reproduction: differential resource specialization in female and male California sea otters

Intraspecific variation in behavior and diet can have important consequences for population and ecosystem dynamics. Here, we examine how differences in reproductive investment and spatial ecology influence individual diet specialization in male and female southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis). We hypothesize that greater reproductive constraints and smaller home ranges of females lead to more pronounced intraspecific competition and increased specialization. We integrate stable carbon (δ(13)C) and nitrogen (δ(15)N) isotope analysis of sea otter vibrissae with long-term observational studies of five subpopulations in California. We define individual diet specialization as low ratios of within-individual variation (WIC) to total population niche width (TNW). We compare isotopic and observational based metrics of WIC/TNW for males and females to data on population densities, and movement patterns using both general linear and linear mixed-effects models. Consistent with our hypothesis, increasing population density is associated with increased individual diet specialization by females but not by males. Additionally, we find the amount of coastline in a sea otter's home range positively related with individual dietary variability, with increased range span resulting in weaker specialization for both males and females. We attribute our results to sex-based differences in movement, with females needing to specialize in their small ranges to maximize energy gain, and posit that the paradigm of individual prey specialization in sea otters with increased intraspecific competition may be a pattern driven largely by females. Our work highlights a potentially broader role of sex in the mechanistic pressures promoting and maintaining diet specialization.

Status and ecological effects of the world's largest carnivores

Large carnivores face serious threats and are experiencing massive declines in their populations and geographic ranges around the world. We highlight how these threats have affected the conservation status and ecological functioning of the 31 largest mammalian carnivores on Earth. Consistent with theory, empirical studies increasingly show that large carnivores have substantial effects on the structure and function of diverse ecosystems. Significant cascading trophic interactions, mediated by their prey or sympatric mesopredators, arise when some of these carnivores are extirpated from or repatriated to ecosystems. Unexpected effects of trophic cascades on various taxa and processes include changes to bird, mammal, invertebrate, and herpetofauna abundance or richness; subsidies to scavengers; altered disease dynamics; carbon sequestration; modified stream morphology; and crop damage. Promoting tolerance and coexistence with large carnivores is a crucial societal challenge that will ultimately determine the fate of Earth's largest carnivores and all that depends upon them, including humans.

Ontogenetic and among-individual variation in foraging strategies of northeast Pacific white sharks based on stable isotope analysis

There is growing evidence for individuality in dietary preferences and foraging behaviors within populations of various species. This is especially important for apex predators, since they can potentially have wide dietary niches and a large impact on trophic dynamics within ecosystems. We evaluate the diet of an apex predator, the white shark (Carcharodon carcharias), by measuring the stable carbon and nitrogen isotope composition of vertebral growth bands to create lifetime records for 15 individuals from California. Isotopic variations in white shark diets can reflect within-region differences among prey (most importantly related to trophic level), as well as differences in baseline values among the regions in which sharks forage, and both prey and habitat preferences may shift with age. The magnitude of isotopic variation among sharks in our study (>5‰ for both elements) is too great to be explained solely by geographic differences, and so must reflect differences in prey choice that may vary with sex, size, age and location. Ontogenetic patterns in δ¹⁵N values vary considerably among individuals, and one third of the population fit each of these descriptions: 1) δ¹⁵N values increased throughout life, 2) δ¹⁵N values increased to a plateau at ∼5 years of age, and 3) δ¹⁵N values remained roughly constant values throughout life. Isotopic data for the population span more than one trophic level, and we offer a qualitative evaluation of diet using shark-specific collagen discrimination factors estimated from a 3+ year captive feeding experiment (Δ¹³C_shark-diet and Δ¹⁵N_shark-diet equal 4.2‰ and 2.5‰, respectively). We assess the degree of individuality with a proportional similarity index that distinguishes specialists and generalists. The isotopic variance is partitioned among differences between-individual (48%), within-individuals (40%), and by calendar year of sub-adulthood (12%). Our data reveal substantial ontogenetic and individual dietary variation within a white shark population.

Assessing the effects of large mobile predators on ecosystem connectivity

Large predators are often highly mobile and can traverse and use multiple habitats. We know surprisingly little about how predator mobility determines important processes of ecosystem connectivity. Here we used a variety of data sources drawn from Palmyra Atoll, a remote tropical marine ecosystem where large predators remain in high abundance, to investigate how these animals foster connectivity. Our results indicate that three of Palmyra's most abundant large predators (e.g., two reef sharks and one snapper) use resources from different habitats creating important linkages across ecosystems. Observations of cross-system foraging such as this have important implications for the understanding of ecosystem functioning, the management of large-predator populations, and the design of conservation measures intended to protect whole ecosystems. In the face of widespread declines of large, mobile predators, it is important that resource managers, policy makers, and ecologists work to understand how these predators create connectivity and to determine the impact that their depletions may be having on the integrity of these linkages.

Organochlorine contaminants in coastal marine ecosystems of southern Alaska: inferences from spatial patterns in blue mussels (Mytilus trossulus)

We measured the concentrations and chemical structures of persistent organochlorines (OCs) in blue mussels (Mytilus trossulus) from 44 sites across southwest and southeast Alaska in an effort to determine both the sources of these compounds and the extent to which this region might be contaminated. High PCB concentrations were detected at Amchitka, Adak, and Unalaska Islands (83, 430, and 2800μgkg(-1) dry weight, respectively) in the Aleutians with relatively low concentrations elsewhere (7.1-51μgkg(-1) dry weight). Heavy PCB congener profiles (indicative of localized point sources) characterized the high concentration sites whereas distinctly lighter congener profiles (indicative of atmospheric transport) characterized the lower concentration sites. Elevated PCB concentrations at Adak were restricted to a small area along the island's eastern shore, suggesting either limited dispersion or rapid dilution of these compounds. More uniform chlorinated pesticide concentrations among the collection sites suggests that these compounds are entering the Aleutian ecosystem from distant sources. Pesticide concentrations correlated significantly with seabird density across the islands we sampled, thus identifying biological transport as a delivery mechanism of these compounds to the Aleutian archipelago. Our findings do not implicate persistent organochlorines as a significant factor in the recent pinniped and sea otter population declines across southwest Alaska.

Structure and mechanism of diet specialisation: testing models of individual variation in resource use with sea otters

Studies of consumer-resource interactions suggest that individual diet specialisation is empirically widespread and theoretically important to the organisation and dynamics of populations and communities. We used weighted networks to analyze the resource use by sea otters, testing three alternative models for how individual diet specialisation may arise. As expected, individual specialisation was absent when otter density was low, but increased at high-otter density. A high-density emergence of nested resource-use networks was consistent with the model assuming individuals share preference ranks. However, a density-dependent emergence of a non-nested modular network for 'core' resources was more consistent with the 'competitive refuge' model. Individuals from different diet modules showed predictable variation in rank-order prey preferences and handling times of core resources, further supporting the competitive refuge model. Our findings support a hierarchical organisation of diet specialisation and suggest individual use of core and marginal resources may be driven by different selective pressures.

Trophic downgrading of planet Earth

Until recently, large apex consumers were ubiquitous across the globe and had been for millions of years. The loss of these animals may be humankind's most pervasive influence on nature. Although such losses are widely viewed as an ethical and aesthetic problem, recent research reveals extensive cascading effects of their disappearance in marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems worldwide. This empirical work supports long-standing theory about the role of top-down forcing in ecosystems but also highlights the unanticipated impacts of trophic cascades on processes as diverse as the dynamics of disease, wildfire, carbon sequestration, invasive species, and biogeochemical cycles. These findings emphasize the urgent need for interdisciplinary research to forecast the effects of trophic downgrading on process, function, and resilience in global ecosystems.

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (-25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.

Variation in delta13C and delta15N diet-vibrissae trophic discrimination factors in a wild population of California sea otters

The ability to quantify dietary inputs using stable isotope data depends on accurate estimates of isotopic differences between a consumer (c) and its diet (d), commonly referred to as trophic discrimination factors (TDFs) and denoted by delta(c-d). At present, TDFs are available for only a few mammals and are usually derived in captive settings. The magnitude of TDFs and the degree to which they vary in wild populations is unknown. We determined delta13C and delta15N TDFs for vibrissae (i.e., whiskers), a tissue that is rapidly becoming an informative isotopic substrate for ecologists, of a wild population of sea otters for which individual diet has been quantified through extensive observational study. This is one of the very few studies that report TDFs for free-living wild animals feeding on natural diets. Trophic discrimination factors of 2.2 per thousand +/- 0.7 per thousand for delta13C and 3.5 per thousand +/- 0.6 per thousand for delta15N (mean +/- SD) were similar to those reported for captive carnivores, and variation in individual delta13C TDFs was negatively but significantly related to sea urchin consumption. This pattern may relate to the lipid-rich diet consumed by most sea otters in this population and suggests that it may not be appropriate to lipid-extract prey samples when using the isotopic composition of keratinaceous tissues to examine diet in consumers that frequently consume lipid-rich foods, such as many marine mammals and seabirds. We suggest that inherent variation in TDFs should be included in isotopically based estimates of trophic level, food chain length, and mixing models used to quantify dietary inputs in wild populations; this practice will further define the capabilities and limitations of isotopic approaches in ecological studies.

Sea otters: their role in structuring nearshore communities

A comparison of western Aleutian Islands with and without sea otter populations shows that this species is important in determining littoral and sublittoral community structure. Sea otters control herbivorous invertebrate populations. Removal of sea otters causes increased herbivory and ultimately results in the destruction of macrophyte associations. The observations suggest that sea otter reestablishment indirectly affects island fauna associated with macrophyte primary productivity.

Using ecological function to develop recovery criteria for depleted species: sea otters and kelp forests in the Aleutian archipelago

Recovery criteria for depleted species or populations normally are based on demographic measures, the goal being to maintain enough individuals over a sufficiently large area to assure a socially tolerable risk of future extinction. Such demographically based recovery criteria may be insufficient to restore the functional roles of strongly interacting species. We explored the idea of developing a recovery criterion for sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in the Aleutian archipelago on the basis of their keystone role in kelp forest ecosystems. We surveyed sea otters and rocky reef habitats at 34 island-time combinations. The system nearly always existed in either a kelp-dominated or deforested phase state, which was predictable from sea otter density. We used a resampling analysis of these data to show that the phase state at any particular island can be determined at 95% probability of correct classification with information from as few as six sites. When sea otter population status (and thus the phase state of the kelp forest) was allowed to vary randomly among islands, just 15 islands had to be sampled to estimate the true proportion that were kelp dominated (within 10%) with 90% confidence. We conclude that kelp forest phase state is a more appropriate, sensitive, and cost-effective measure of sea otter recovery than the more traditional demographically based metrics, and we suggest that similar approaches have broad potential utility in establishing recovery criteria for depleted populations of other functionally important species.

Causes and consequences of marine mammal population declines in southwest Alaska: a food-web perspective

Populations of sea otters, seals and sea lions have collapsed across much of southwest Alaska over the past several decades. The sea otter decline set off a trophic cascade in which the coastal marine ecosystem underwent a phase shift from kelp forests to deforested sea urchin barrens. This interaction in turn affected the distribution, abundance and productivity of numerous other species. Ecological consequences of the pinniped declines are largely unknown. Increased predation by transient (marine mammal-eating) killer whales probably caused the sea otter declines and may have caused the pinniped declines as well. Springer et al. proposed that killer whales, which purportedly fed extensively on great whales, expanded their diets to include a higher percentage of sea otters and pinnipeds following a sharp reduction in great whale numbers from post World War II industrial whaling. Critics of this hypothesis claim that great whales are not now and probably never were an important nutritional resource for killer whales. We used demographic/energetic analyses to evaluate whether or not a predator-prey system involving killer whales and the smaller marine mammals would be sustainable without some nutritional contribution from the great whales. Our results indicate that while such a system is possible, it could only exist under a narrow range of extreme conditions and is therefore highly unlikely.

Organochlorine contaminants in fishes from coastal waters west of Amukta Pass, Aleutian Islands, Alaska, USA

Organochlorines were examined in liver and stable isotopes in muscle of fishes from the western Aleutian Islands, Alaska, in relation to islands or locations affected by military occupation. Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis), and rock greenling (Hexagrammos lagocephalus) were collected from nearshore waters at contemporary (decommissioned) and historical (World War II) military locations, as well as at reference locations. Total (Sigma) polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) dominated the suite of organochlorine groups (SigmaDDTs, Sigmachlordane cyclodienes, Sigmaother cyclodienes, and Sigmachlorinated benzenes and cyclohexanes) detected in fishes at all locations, followed by SigmaDDTs and Sigmachlordanes; dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (p,p'DDE) composed 52 to 66% of SigmaDDTs by species. Organochlorine concentrations were higher or similar in cod compared to halibut and lowest in greenling; they were among the highest for fishes in Arctic or near Arctic waters. Organochlorine group concentrations varied among species and locations, but SigmaPCB concentrations in all species were consistently higher at military locations than at reference locations. Moreover, all organochlorine group concentrations were higher in halibut from military locations than those from reference locations. A wide range of molecular weight organochlorines was detected at all locations, which implied regional or long-range transport and deposition, as well as local point-source contamination. Furthermore, a preponderance of higher-chlorinated PCB congeners in fishes from contemporary military islands implied recent exposure. Concentrations in all organochlorine groups increased with delta15N enrichment in fishes, and analyses of residual variation provided further evidence of different sources of SigmaPCBs and p,p'DDE among species and locations.

Using stable isotopes to investigate individual diet specialization in California sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis)

Differences in diet composition among conspecifics (dietary specialization) have been documented across a broad range of taxonomic groups and habitats, and such variation at the individual level is increasingly recognized as an important component of diversity in trophic interactions. Accurate identification of individual dietary specialization, however, requires longitudinal dietary records that are labor-intensive and cost-prohibitive to obtain for many species. Here we explore the use of stable isotopes (delta13C and delta15N) as a promising technique for detecting and quantifying patterns of individual dietary specialization. Southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) offer a unique opportunity for testing this approach because (1) they consume a wide variety of prey that span multiple trophic levels, habitats, and ecologically defined functional groups; and (2) individual diet specialization can be validated with existing observational data. We analyzed the isotopic composition of sea otter vibrissae (n = 31) in order to characterize inter- and intra-individual variation in sea otter diets at Monterey Bay, California, USA. At the population level, sea otters showed substantial variation in both delta13C and delta15N values, occupying nearly all of the "isotopic space" created by the diversity of isotopic signatures of potential prey taxa. Most of the variation in sea otter vibrissae was accounted for by differences between individuals, with much less contributed by within-individual variation. A majority of sea otters (approximately 80%) showed relatively little temporal variability in isotopic composition, suggesting that the proportional composition of most individuals' diets is relatively constant over time; a few individuals (approximately 20%) exhibited a high degree of intra-vibrissa isotopic variability, suggesting seasonal shifts in diet composition. These results and our interpretation of them were supported by long-term observational data on the diets of radio-tagged sea otters from the same population (n = 23). Our results demonstrate that stable isotopes can provide an efficient tool for measuring individual- and population-level dietary breadth and may be useful for studying populations where longitudinal data on individuals would otherwise be impossible to acquire. This will be critical for examining the causes and consequences of dietary variation within and among consumer populations, thereby improving our understanding of these important ecological and evolutionary processes at the community level.

Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: are major surprises inevitable?

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.

Using demography and movement behavior to predict range expansion of the southern sea otter

In addition to forecasting population growth, basic demographic data combined with movement data provide a means for predicting rates of range expansion. Quantitative models of range expansion have rarely been applied to large vertebrates, although such tools could be useful for restoration and management of many threatened but recovering populations. Using the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) as a case study, we utilized integro-difference equations in combination with a stage-structured projection matrix that incorporated spatial variation in dispersal and demography to make forecasts of population recovery and range recolonization. In addition to these basic predictions, we emphasize how to make these modeling predictions useful in a management context through the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Our models resulted in hind-cast (1989-2003) predictions of net population growth and range expansion that closely matched observed patterns. We next made projections of future range expansion and population growth, incorporating uncertainty in all model parameters, and explored the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in spatially explicit survival and dispersal rates. The predicted rate of southward range expansion (median = 5.2 km/yr) was sensitive to both dispersal and survival rates; elasticity analysis indicated that changes in adult survival would have the greatest potential effect on the rate of range expansion, while perturbation analysis showed that variation in subadult dispersal contributed most to variance in model predictions. Variation in survival and dispersal of females at the south end of the range contributed most of the variance in predicted southward range expansion. Our approach provides guidance for the acquisition of further data and a means of forecasting the consequence of specific management actions. Similar methods could aid in the management of other recovering populations.

Environmental contaminants in bald eagle eggs from the Aleutian archipelago

We collected 136 fresh and unhatched eggs from bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) nests and assessed productivity on eight islands in the Aleutian archipelago, 2000 to 2002. Egg contents were analyzed for a broad spectrum of organochlorine (OC) contaminants, mercury (Hg), and stable isotopes of carbon (delta13C) and nitrogen (delta15N). Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (SigmaPCBs), p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), and Hg in bald eagle eggs were elevated throughout the archipelago, but the patterns of distribution differed among the various contaminants. Total PCBs were highest in areas of past military activities on Adak and Amchitka Islands, indicating local point sources of these compounds. Concentrations of DDE and Hg were higher on Amchitka Island, which was subjected to much military activity during World War II and the middle of the 20th century. Concentrations of SigmaPCBs also were elevated on islands with little history of military activity (e.g., Amlia, Tanaga, Buldir), suggesting non-point sources of PCBs in addition to point sources. Concentrations of DDE and Hg were highest in eagle eggs from the most western Aleutian Islands (e.g., Buldir, Kiska) and decreased eastward along the Aleutian chain. This east-to-west increase suggested a Eurasian source of contamination, possibly through global transport and atmospheric distillation and/or from migratory seabirds. Eggshell thickness and productivity of bald eagles were normal and indicative of healthy populations because concentrations of most contaminants were below threshold levels for effects on reproduction. Contrary to our predictions, contaminant concentrations were not correlated with stable isotopes of carbon (delta13C) or nitrogen (delta15N) in eggs. These latter findings indicate that contaminant concentrations were influenced more by point sources and geographic location than trophic status of eagles among the different islands.

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks.

Pleistocene Rewilding: An Optimistic Agenda for Twenty‐First Century Conservation

Large vertebrates are strong interactors in food webs, yet they were lost from most ecosystems after the dispersal of modern humans from Africa and Eurasia. We call for restoration of missing ecological functions and evolutionary potential of lost North American megafauna using extant conspecifics and related taxa. We refer to this restoration as Pleistocene rewilding; it is conceived as carefully managed ecosystem manipulations whereby costs and benefits are objectively addressed on a case-by-case and locality-by-locality basis. Pleistocene rewilding would deliberately promote large, long-lived species over pest and weed assemblages, facilitate the persistence and ecological effectiveness of megafauna on a global scale, and broaden the underlying premise of conservation from managing extinction to encompass restoring ecological and evolutionary processes. Pleistocene rewilding can begin immediately with species such as Bolson tortoises and feral horses and continue through the coming decades with elephants and Holarctic lions. Our exemplar taxa would contribute biological, economic, and cultural benefits to North America. Owners of large tracts of private land in the central and western United States could be the first to implement this restoration. Risks of Pleistocene rewilding include the possibility of altered disease ecology and associated human health implications, as well as unexpected ecological and sociopolitical consequences of reintroductions. Establishment of programs to monitor suites of species interactions and their consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem health will be a significant challenge. Secure fencing would be a major economic cost, and social challenges will include acceptance of predation as an overriding natural process and the incorporation of pre-Columbian ecological frameworks into conservation strategies.

Pleistocene rewilding: an optimistic agenda for twenty-first century conservation

Large vertebrates are strong interactors in food webs, yet they were lost from most ecosystems after the dispersal of modern humans from Africa and Eurasia. We call for restoration of missing ecological functions and evolutionary potential of lost North American megafauna using extant conspecifics and related taxa. We refer to this restoration as Pleistocene rewilding; it is conceived as carefully managed ecosystem manipulations whereby costs and benefits are objectively addressed on a case-by-case and locality-by-locality basis. Pleistocene rewilding would deliberately promote large, long-lived species over pest and weed assemblages, facilitate the persistence and ecological effectiveness of megafauna on a global scale, and broaden the underlying premise of conservation from managing extinction to encompass restoring ecological and evolutionary processes. Pleistocene rewilding can begin immediately with species such as Bolson tortoises and feral horses and continue through the coming decades with elephants and Holarctic lions. Our exemplar taxa would contribute biological, economic, and cultural benefits to North America. Owners of large tracts of private land in the central and western United States could be the first to implement this restoration. Risks of Pleistocene rewilding include the possibility of altered disease ecology and associated human health implications, as well as unexpected ecological and sociopolitical consequences of reintroductions. Establishment of programs to monitor suites of species interactions and their consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem health will be a significant challenge. Secure fencing would be a major economic cost, and social challenges will include acceptance of predation as an overriding natural process and the incorporation of pre-Columbian ecological frameworks into conservation strategies.

Patterns of growth and body condition in sea otters from the Aleutian archipelago before and after the recent population decline

1. Growth models for body mass and length were fitted to data collected from 1842 sea otters Enhydra lutris shot or live-captured throughout south-west Alaska between 1967 and 2004. Growth curves were constructed for each of two main year groups: 1967-71 when the population was at or near carrying capacity and 1992-97 when the population was in steep decline. Analyses of data collected from animals caught during 2004, when the population density was very low, were precluded by a small sample size and consequently only examined incidentally to the main growth curves. 2. Growth curves demonstrated a significant increase in body mass and body length at age in the 1990s. Asymptotic values of body mass were 12-18% higher in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s, and asymptotic values for body length were 10-11% higher between the same periods. Data collected in 2004 suggest a continued increase in body size, with nearly all data points for mass and length falling significantly above the 1990s growth curves. 3. In addition to larger asymptotic values for mass and length, the rate of growth towards asymptotic values was more rapid in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s: sea otters reached 95% of asymptotic body mass and body length 1-2 years earlier in the 1990s. 4. Body condition (as measured by the log mass/log length ratio) was significantly greater in males than in females. There was also an increasing trend from the 1960s/70s through 2004 despite much year-to-year variation. 5. Population age structures differed significantly between the 1960s/70s and the 1990s with the latter distribution skewed toward younger age classes (indicating an altered lx function) suggesting almost complete relaxation of age-dependent mortality patterns (i.e. those typical of food-limited populations). 6. This study spanned a period of time over which the population status of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago declined precipitously from levels at or near equilibrium densities at some islands in the 1960s/70s to < 5% of estimated carrying capacity by the late 1990s. The results of this study indicate an improved overall health of sea otters over the period of decline and suggest that limited nutritional resources were not the cause of the observed reduced population abundance. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the decline was caused by increased killer whale predation.

Indirect food web interactions: sea otters and kelp forest fishes in the Aleutian archipelago

Although trophic cascades-the effect of apex predators on progressively lower trophic level species through top-down forcing-have been demonstrated in diverse ecosystems, the broader potential influences of trophic cascades on other species and ecosystem processes are not well studied. We used the overexploitation, recovery and subsequent collapse of sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations in the Aleutian archipelago to explore if and how the abundance and diet of kelp forest fishes are influenced by a trophic cascade linking sea otters with sea urchins and fleshy macroalgae. We measured the abundance of sea urchins (biomass density), kelp (numerical density) and fish (Catch per unit effort) at four islands in the mid-1980s (when otters were abundant at two of the islands and rare at the two others) and in 2000 (after otters had become rare at all four islands). Our fish studies focused on rock greenling (Hexagrammos lagocephalus), the numerically dominant species in this region. In the mid-1980s, the two islands with high-density otter populations supported dense kelp forests, relatively few urchins, and abundant rock greenling whereas the opposite pattern (abundant urchins, sparse kelp forests, and relatively few rock greenling) occurred at islands where otters were rare. In the 2000, the abundances of urchins, kelp and greenling were grossly unchanged at islands where otters were initially rare but had shifted to the characteristic pattern of otter-free systems at islands where otters were initially abundant. Significant changes in greenling diet occurred between the mid-1980s and the 2000 although the reasons for these changes were difficult to assess because of strong island-specific effects. Whereas urchin-dominated communities supported more diverse fish assemblages than kelp-dominated communities, this was not a simple effect of the otter-induced trophic cascade because all islands supported more diverse fish assemblages in 2000 than in the mid-1980s.

Introduced Predators Transform Subarctic Islands from Grassland to Tundra

Top predators often have powerful direct effects on prey populations, but whether these direct effects propagate to the base of terrestrial food webs is debated. There are few examples of trophic cascades strong enough to alter the abundance and composition of entire plant communities. We show that the introduction of arctic foxes (Alopex lagopus) to the Aleutian archipelago induced strong shifts in plant productivity and community structure via a previously unknown pathway. By preying on seabirds, foxes reduced nutrient transport from ocean to land, affecting soil fertility and transforming grasslands to dwarf shrub/forb-dominated ecosystems.