Unraveling Adaptive Evolutionary Divergence at Microgeographic Scales

AbstractStriking examples of local adaptation at fine geographic scales are increasingly being documented in natural populations. However, the relative contributions made by natural selection, phenotype-dependent dispersal (when individuals disperse with respect to a habitat preference), and mate preference in generating and maintaining microgeographic adaptation and divergence are not well studied. Here, we develop quantitative genetics models and individual-based simulations (IBSs) to uncover the evolutionary forces that possibly drive microgeographic divergence. We also perform Bayesian estimation of the parameters in our IBS using empirical data on habitat-specific variation in bill morphology in the island scrub-jay (Aphelocoma insularis) to apply our models to a natural system. We find that natural selection and phenotype-dependent dispersal can generate the patterns of divergence we observe in the island scrub-jay. However, mate preference for a mate with similar bill morphology, even though observed in the species, does not play a significant role in driving divergence. Our modeling approach provides insights into phenotypic evolution occurring over small spatial scales relative to dispersal ranges, suggesting that adaptive divergence at microgeographic scales may be common across a wider range of taxa than previously thought. Our quantitative genetic models help to inform future theoretical and empirical work to determine how selection, habitat preference, and mate preference contribute to local adaptation and microgeographic divergence.

The role of tropical rainfall in driving range dynamics for a long-distance migratory bird

Predicting how the range dynamics of migratory species will respond to climate change requires a mechanistic understanding of the factors that operate across the annual cycle to control the distribution and abundance of a species. Here, we use multiple lines of evidence to reveal that environmental conditions during the nonbreeding season influence range dynamics across the life cycle of a migratory songbird, the American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla). Using long-term data from the nonbreeding grounds and breeding origins estimated from stable hydrogen isotopes in tail feathers, we found that the relationship between annual survival and migration distance is mediated by precipitation, but only during dry years. A long-term drying trend throughout the Caribbean is associated with higher mortality for individuals from the northern portion of the species' breeding range, resulting in an approximate 500 km southward shift in breeding origins of this Jamaican population over the past 30 y. This shift in connectivity is mirrored by changes in the redstart's breeding distribution and abundance. These results demonstrate that the climatic effects on demographic processes originating during the tropical nonbreeding season are actively shaping range dynamics in a migratory bird.

Climate‐mediated population dynamics of a migratory songbird differ between the trailing edge and range core

Understanding the demographic drivers of range contractions is important for predicting species' responses to climate change; however, few studies have examined the effects of climate change on survival and recruitment across species' ranges. We show that climate change can drive trailing edge range contractions through the effects on apparent survival, and potentially recruitment, in a migratory songbird. We assessed the demographic drivers of trailing edge range contractions using a long-term demography dataset for the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) collected across elevational climate gradients at the trailing edge and core of the breeding range. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the effect of climate change on apparent survival and recruitment and to forecast population viability at study plots through 2040. The trailing edge population at the low-elevation plot became locally extinct by 2017. The local population at the mid-elevation plot at the trailing edge gradually declined and is predicted to become extirpated by 2040. Population declines were associated with warming temperatures at the mid-elevation plot, although results were more equivocal at the low-elevation plot where we had fewer years of data. Population density was stable or increasing at the range core, although warming temperatures are predicted to cause population declines by 2040 at the low-elevation plot. This result suggests that even populations within the geographic core of the range are vulnerable to climate change. The demographic drivers of local population declines varied between study plots, but warming temperatures were frequently associated with declining rates of population growth and apparent survival. Declining apparent survival in our study system is likely to be associated with increased adult emigration away from poor-quality habitats. Our results suggest that demographic responses to warming temperatures are complex and dependent on local conditions and geographic range position, but spatial variation in population declines is consistent with the climate-mediated range shift hypothesis. Local populations of black-throated blue warblers near the warm-edge range boundary at low latitudes and low elevations are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change, potentially leading to local extirpation and range contractions.

Habitat-linked genetic variation supports microgeographic adaptive divergence in an island-endemic bird species

We investigated the potential mechanisms driving habitat-linked genetic divergence within a bird species endemic to a single 250 km² island. The island scrub-jay (Aphelocoma insularis) exhibits microgeographic divergence in bill morphology across pine-oak ecotones on Santa Cruz Island, California (USA) similar to adaptive differences described in mainland congeners over much larger geographic scales. To test whether individuals exhibit genetic differentiation related to habitat type and divergence in bill length, we genotyped over 3,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 123 adult island scrub-jay males from across Santa Cruz Island using restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq). Neutral landscape genomic analyses revealed that genome-wide genetic differentiation was primarily related to geographic distance and differences in habitat composition. We also found 168 putatively adaptive loci associated with habitat type using multivariate redundancy analysis (RDA) while controlling for spatial effects. Finally, two genome-wide association analyses revealed a polygenic basis to variation in bill length with multiple loci detected in or near genes known to affect bill morphology in other birds. Our findings support the hypothesis that divergent selection at microgeographic scales can cause adaptive divergence in the presence of ongoing gene flow.

Impact of cocoa agricultural intensification on bird diversity and community composition

To meet the growing demand for chocolate, cocoa (Theobroma cacao) agriculture is expanding and intensifying. Although this threatens tropical forests, cocoa sustainability initiatives largely overlook biodiversity conservation. To inform these initiatives, we analyzed how cocoa agriculture affects bird diversity at farm and landscape scales with a meta-analysis of 23 studies. We extracted 214 Hedges' g* comparisons of bird diversity and 14 comparisons of community similarity between a forest baseline and 4 farming systems that cover an intensification gradient in landscapes with high and low forest cover, and we summarized 119 correlations between cocoa farm features and bird diversity. Bird diversity declined sharply in low shade cocoa. Cocoa with >30% canopy cover from diverse trees retained bird diversity similar to nearby primary or mature secondary forest but held a different community of birds. Diversity of endemic species, frugivores, and insectivores (agriculture avoiders) declined, whereas diversity of habitat generalists, migrants, nectarivores, and granivores (agriculture associates) increased. As forest decreased on the landscape, the difference in bird community composition between forest and cocoa also decreased, indicating agriculture associates replaced agriculture avoiders in forest patches. Our results emphasize the need to conserve forested landscapes (land sparing) and invest in mixed-shade agroforestry (land sharing) because each strategy benefits a diverse and distinct biological community.

Adaptive divergence in bill morphology and other thermoregulatory traits is facilitated by restricted gene flow in song sparrows on the California Channel Islands

Disentangling the effects of neutral and adaptive processes in maintaining phenotypic variation across environmental gradients is challenging in natural populations. Song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) on the California Channel Islands occupy a pronounced east-west climate gradient within a small spatial scale, providing a unique opportunity to examine the interaction of genetic isolation (reduced gene flow) and the environment (selection) in driving variation. We used reduced representation genomic libraries to infer the role of neutral processes (drift and restricted gene flow) and divergent selection in driving variation in thermoregulatory traits with an emphasis on the mechanisms that maintain bill divergence among islands. Analyses of 22,029 neutral SNPs confirm distinct population structure by island with restricted gene flow and relatively large effective population sizes, suggesting bill differences are probably not a product of genetic drift. Instead, we found strong support for local adaptation using 3294 SNPs in differentiation-based and environmental association analyses coupled with genome-wide association tests. Specifically, we identified several putatively adaptive and candidate loci in or near genes involved in bill development pathways (e.g., BMP, CaM, Wnt), confirming the highly complex and polygenic architecture underlying bill morphology. Furthermore, we found divergence in genes associated with other thermoregulatory traits (i.e., feather structure, plumage colour, and physiology). Collectively, these results suggest strong divergent selection across an island archipelago results in genomic changes in a suite of traits associated with climate adaptation over small spatial scales. Future research should move beyond studying univariate traits to better understand multidimensional responses to complex environmental conditions.

Differential survival throughout the full annual cycle of a migratory bird presents a life-history trade-off

Long-distance migrations are among the most physically demanding feats animals perform. Understanding the potential costs and benefits of such behaviour is a fundamental question in ecology and evolution. A hypothetical cost of migration should be outweighed by higher productivity and/or higher annual survival, but few studies on migratory species have been able to directly quantify patterns of survival throughout the full annual cycle and across the majority of a species' range. Here, we use telemetry data from 220 migratory Egyptian vultures Neophron percnopterus, tracked for 3,186 bird months and across approximately 70% of the species' global distribution, to test for differences in survival throughout the annual cycle. We estimated monthly survival probability relative to migration and latitude using a multi-event capture-recapture model in a Bayesian framework that accounted for age, origin, subpopulation and the uncertainty of classifying fates from tracking data. We found lower survival during migration compared to stationary periods (β = -0.816; 95% credible interval: -1.290 to -0.318) and higher survival on non-breeding grounds at southern latitudes (<25°N; β = 0.664; 0.076-1.319) compared to on breeding grounds. Survival was also higher for individuals originating from Western Europe (β = 0.664; 0.110-1.330) as compared to further east in Europe and Asia, and improved with age (β = 0.030; 0.020-0.042). Anthropogenic mortalities accounted for half of the mortalities with a known cause and occurred mainly in northern latitudes. Many juveniles drowned in the Mediterranean Sea on their first autumn migration while there were few confirmed mortalities in the Sahara Desert, indicating that migration barriers are likely species-specific. Our study advances the understanding of important fitness trade-offs associated with long-distance migration. We conclude that there is lower survival associated with migration, but that this may be offset by higher non-breeding survival at lower latitudes. We found more human-caused mortality farther north, and suggest that increasing anthropogenic mortality could disrupt the delicate migration trade-off balance. Research to investigate further potential benefits of migration (e.g. differential productivity across latitudes) could clarify how migration evolved and how migrants may persist in a rapidly changing world.

Empirical tests of habitat selection theory reveal that conspecific density and patch quality, but not habitat amount, drive long-distance immigration in a wild bird

Individuals that disperse long distances from their natal site must select breeding patches with no prior knowledge of patch suitability. Despite decades of theoretical studies examining which cues dispersing individuals should use to select breeding patches, few empirical studies have tested the predictions of these theories at spatial scales relevant to long‐distance dispersal in wild animal populations. Here, we use a novel assignment model based on multiple intrinsic markers to quantify natal dispersal distances of Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) breeding in forest fragments. We show that long‐distance natal dispersal in this species is more frequent than commonly assumed for songbirds and that habitat selection by these individuals is driven by density‐dependence and patch quality but not the amount of habitat surrounding breeding patches. These results represent an important contribution to understanding habitat selection by dispersing individuals, especially with regards to long‐distance dispersal.

Variance in within-pair reproductive success influences the opportunity for selection annually and over the lifetimes of males in a multibrooded songbird

In socially monogamous species, male reproductive success consists of "within-pair" offspring produced with their socially paired mate(s), and "extra-pair" offspring produced with additional females throughout the population. Both reproductive pathways offer distinct opportunities for selection in wild populations, as each is composed of separate components of mate attraction, female fecundity, and paternity allocation. Identifying key sources of variance and covariance among these components is a crucial step toward understanding the reproductive strategies that males use to maximize fitness both annually and over their lifetimes. We use 16 years of complete reproductive data from a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) to partition variance in male annual and lifetime reproductive success, and thereby identify if the opportunity for selection varies over the lifetimes of individual males and what reproductive strategies likely favor maximum lifetime fitness. The majority of variance in male reproduction was attributable to within-pair success, but the specific effects of individual components of variance differed between total annual and total lifetime reproductive success. Positive overall lifetime covariance between within-pair and extra-pair components indicates that males able to maximize within-pair success, particularly with double-brooding females, likely achieve higher overall lifetime fitness via both within-pair and extra-pair reproductive pathways.

Responses of migratory species and their pathogens to supplemental feeding

Migratory animals undergo seasonal and often spectacular movements and perform crucial ecosystem services. In response to anthropogenic changes, including food subsidies, some migratory animals are now migrating shorter distances or halting migration altogether and forming resident populations. Recent studies suggest that shifts in migratory behaviour can alter the risk of infection for wildlife. Although migration is commonly assumed to enhance pathogen spread, for many species, migration has the opposite effect of lowering infection risk, if animals escape from habitats where pathogen stages have accumulated or if strenuous journeys cull infected hosts. Here, we summarize responses of migratory species to supplemental feeding and review modelling and empirical work that provides support for mechanisms through which resource-induced changes in migration can alter pathogen transmission. In particular, we focus on the well-studied example of monarch butterflies and their protozoan parasites in North America. We also identify areas for future research, including combining new technologies for tracking animal movements with pathogen surveillance and exploring potential evolutionary responses of hosts and pathogens to changing movement patterns. Given that many migratory animals harbour pathogens of conservation concern and zoonotic potential, studies that document ongoing shifts in migratory behaviour and infection risk are vitally needed.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'.

Spatially biased dispersal of acorns by a scatter-hoarding corvid may accelerate passive restoration of oak habitat on California's largest island

Scatter hoarding by corvids (crows, jays, magpies, and nutcrackers) provides seed dispersal for many large-seeded plants, including oaks and pines. When hoarding seeds, corvids often choose nonrandom locations throughout the landscape, resulting in differential survival of seeds. In the context of habitat restoration, such disproportional storing of seeds in areas suitable for germination and establishment can accelerate expansion and recovery of large-seeded tree populations and their associated ecosystems. Here, we investigate the spatial preferences of island scrub jays Aphelocoma insularis during scatter hoarding of acorns (Quercus spp.) on Santa Cruz Island. We use a large behavioral data set on the birds’ behavior in combination with seedling surveys and spatial analysis to determine whether 1) island scrub jays disproportionally cache seeds in specific habitat types, and 2) whether the preferred habitat type is suitable for oak regeneration. Our results show that the jays nonrandomly cache acorns across the landscape; they use chaparral and coastal sage scrub disproportionally while avoiding open and grassy areas. The areas used most often for caching were also the areas with the highest oak seedling densities. We discuss the potential role of these findings for the recovery of Santa Cruz Island’s oak habitat since the 1980s.

Characterizing selection in black-throated blue warblers using a sexual network approach

Our understanding of trait evolution is built upon studies that examine the correlation between traits and fitness, most of which implicitly assume all individuals experience similar selective environments. However, accounting for differences in selective pressures, such as variation in the social environment, can advance our understanding of how selection shapes individual traits and subsequent fitness. In this study, we test whether variation in the social environment affects selection on individual phenotype. We apply a new sexual network framework to quantify each male's social environment as the mean body size of his primary competitors. We test for direct and social selection on male body size using a 10-year data set on black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens), a territorial species for which body size is hypothesized to mediate competition for mates. We found that direct selection on body size was weak and nonsignificant, as was social selection via the body size of the males' competitors. Analysing both types of selection simultaneously allows us to firmly reject a role for body size in competitive interactions between males and subsequent male fitness in this population. We evaluate the application of the sexual network approach to empirical data and suggest that other phenotypic traits such as song characteristics and plumage may be more relevant than body size for male-male competition in this small passerine bird.

Spatial and temporal drivers of avian population dynamics across the annual cycle

Untangling the spatial and temporal processes that influence population dynamics of migratory species is challenging, because changes in abundance are shaped by variation in vital rates across heterogeneous habitats and throughout the annual cycle. We developed a full-annual-cycle, integrated, population model and used demographic data collected between 2011 and 2014 in southern Indiana and Belize to estimate stage-specific vital rates of a declining migratory songbird, the Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina). Our primary objective was to understand how spatial and temporal variation in demography contributes to local and regional population growth. Our full-annual-cycle model allowed us to estimate (1) age-specific, seasonal survival probabilities, including latent survival during both spring and autumn migration, and (2) how the relative contribution of vital rates to population growth differed among habitats. Wood Thrushes in our study populations experienced the lowest apparent survival rates during migration and apparent survival was lower during spring migration than during fall migration. Both mortality and high dispersal likely contributed to low apparent survival during spring migration. Population growth in high-quality habitat was most sensitive to variation in fecundity and apparent survival of juveniles during spring migration, whereas population growth in low-quality sites was most sensitive to adult apparent breeding-season survival. These results elucidate how full-annual-cycle vital rates, particularly apparent survival during migration, interact with spatial variation in habitat quality to influence population dynamics in migratory species.

Equipping the 22nd-Century Historical Ecologist

Historical ecology provides information needed to understand contemporary conditions and make science-based resource management decisions. Gaps in historical records, however, can limit inquiries and inference. Unfortunately, the patchiness of data that poses challenges for today's historical ecologist may be similarly problematic for those in the future seeking to understand what are currently present-day conditions and trends, in part because of societal underinvestment in systematic collection and curation. We therefore highlight the generational imperative that contemporary scientists and managers individually have - especially in this era of tremendous global change - to ensure sufficient documentation of the past and current conditions of the places and resources to which they have access.

Partial support for the central-marginal hypothesis within a population: reduced genetic diversity but not increased differentiation at the range edge of an island endemic bird

Large-scale population comparisons have contributed to our understanding of the evolution of geographic range limits and species boundaries, as well as the conservation value of populations at range margins. The central-marginal hypothesis (CMH) predicts a decline in genetic diversity and an increase in genetic differentiation toward the periphery of species' ranges due to spatial variation in genetic drift and gene flow. Empirical studies on a diverse array of taxa have demonstrated support for the CMH. However, nearly all such studies come from widely distributed species, and have not considered if the same processes can be scaled down to single populations. Here, we test the CMH on a species composed of a single population: the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis), endemic to a 250 km² island. We examined microsatellite data from a quarter of the total population and found that homozygosity increased toward the island's periphery. However, peripheral portions of the island did not exhibit higher genetic differentiation. Simulations revealed that highly localized dispersal and small total population size, but not spatial variation in population density, were critical for generating fine-scale variation in homozygosity. Collectively, these results demonstrate that microevolutionary processes driving spatial variation in genetic diversity among populations can also be important for generating spatial variation in genetic diversity within populations.

Seasonal survival estimation for a long-distance migratory bird and the influence of winter precipitation

Conservation of migratory animals requires information about seasonal survival rates. Identifying factors that limit populations, and the portions of the annual cycle in which they occur, are critical for recognizing and reducing potential threats. However, such data are lacking for virtually all migratory taxa. We investigated patterns and environmental correlates of annual, oversummer, overwinter, and migratory survival for adult male Kirtland's warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii), an endangered, long-distance migratory songbird. We used Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to analyze two mark-recapture datasets: 2006-2011 on Michigan breeding grounds, and 2003-2010 on Bahamian wintering grounds. The mean annual survival probability was 0.58 ± 0.12 SE. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer and winter stationary periods were relatively high (0.963 ± 0.005 SE and 0.977 ± 0.002 SE, respectively). Monthly survival probability during migratory periods was substantially lower (0.879 ± 0.05 SE), accounting for ~44% of all annual mortality. March rainfall in the Bahamas was the best-supported predictor of annual survival probability and was positively correlated with apparent annual survival in the subsequent year, suggesting that the effects of winter precipitation carried over to influence survival probability of individuals in later seasons. Projection modeling revealed that a decrease in Bahamas March rainfall >12.4% from its current mean could result in negative population growth in this species. Collectively, our results suggest that increased drought during the non-breeding season, which is predicted to occur under multiple climate change scenarios, could have important consequences on the annual survival and population growth rate of Kirtland's warbler and other Neotropical-Nearctic migratory bird species.

Non-breeding season habitat quality mediates the strength of density-dependence for a migratory bird

Our understanding of when natural populations are regulated during their annual cycle is limited, particularly for migratory species. This information is needed for parametrizing models that can inform management and conservation. Here, we use 14 years of data on colour-marked birds to investigate how conspecific density and habitat quality during the tropical non-breeding period interact to affect body condition and apparent annual survival of a long-distance migratory songbird, the American redstart (Setophagaruticilla). Body condition and survival of birds in high-quality mangrove habitat declined as density increased. By contrast, body condition improved and survival did not vary as density increased in adjacent, lower quality scrub habitat, although mean condition and survival were almost always lower than in mangrove. High rainfall enhanced body condition in scrub but not in mangrove, suggesting factors such as food availability outweighed consequences of crowding in lower quality habitat. Thus, survival of overwintering redstarts in mangrove habitat, disproportionately males,appears to be regulated by a crowding mechanism based on density-dependent resource competition. Survival of individuals in scrub, mostly females, appears to be limited by density-independent environmental factors but not regulated by crowding. The contrasting effects of density and food limitation on individuals overwintering in adjacent habitats illustrate the complexity of processes operating during the non-breeding period for migratory animals, and emphasize the need for long-term studies of animals in multiple habitats and throughout their annual cycles.

Context-dependent seed dispersal by a scatter-hoarding corvid

Corvids (crows, jays, magpies and nutcrackers) are important dispersers of large-seeded plants. Studies on captive or supplemented birds suggest that they flexibly adjust their scatter-hoarding behaviour to the context of social dynamics and relative seed availability. Because many corvid-dispersed trees show high annual variation in seed production, context-dependent foraging can have strong effects on natural corvid scatter-hoarding behaviour. We investigated how seed availability and social dynamics affected scatter-hoarding in the island scrub jays (Aphelocoma insularis). We quantified rates of scatter-hoarding behaviour and territorial defence of 26 colour-marked birds over a three-year period with variable acorn crops. We tested whether caching parameters were correlated with variation in annual seed production of oaks as predicted by the predator dispersal hypothesis, which states that caching rates and distances should vary with seed abundance in ways that benefit tree fitness. We also tested whether antagonistic interactions with conspecifics would affect scatter-hoarding adversely, as found in experimental studies. Caching behaviour varied with acorn availability. Caching distances correlated positively with annual acorn crop size, increasing by as much as 40% between years. Caching rates declined over time in years with small acorn crops, but increased when crops were large. Acorn foraging and caching rates were also negatively correlated with rates of territorial aggression. Overall foraging rates, however, were not associated with aggression, suggesting that reduced dispersal rates were not simply due to time constraints. Our field results support laboratory findings that caching rates and distances by scatter-hoarding corvids are context-dependent. Furthermore, our results are consistent with predictions of the predator dispersal hypothesis and suggest that large seed crops and social interactions among scatter-hoarders affect dispersal benefits for oaks and other masting tree species.

The interacting effects of food, spring temperature, and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird

Although long-distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double-brooded long-distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark-recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late-season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black-throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species.

Climate, demography and lek stability in an Amazonian bird

Lekking is a rare, but iconic mating system where polygynous males aggregate and perform group displays to attract females. Existing theory postulates that demographic and environmental stability are required for lekking to be an evolutionarily viable reproductive strategy. However, we lack empirical tests for the hypotheses that lek stability is facilitated by age-specific variation in demographic rates, and by predictable, abundant resources. To address this knowledge gap, we use multistate models to examine how two demographic elements of lek stability-male survival and recruitment-vary with age, social status and phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a Neotropical frugivorous bird, the wire-tailed manakin (Pipra filicauda). Our results show that demographic and environmental conditions were related to lek stability in the Ecuadorean Amazon. Apparent annual survival probability of territorial males was higher than that of non-territorial floaters, and recruitment probability increased as males progressed in an age-graded queue. Moreover, annual survival of territorial males and body condition of both floaters and territory holders were higher following years with El Niño conditions, associated with reduced rainfall and probably higher fruit production in the northern Neotropics, and lower after years with wet, La Niña conditions that predominated our study. Recruitment probabilities varied annually, independent of ENSO phase, and increased over our study period, but the annual mean number of territorial males per lek declined. Our results provide empirical support for hypothesized demographic and environmental drivers of lek dynamics. This study also suggests that climate-mediated changes in resource availability can affect demography and subsequent lek stability in a relatively buffered, lowland rainforest.

Experimental food supplementation reveals habitat-dependent male reproductive investment in a migratory bird

Environmental factors can shape reproductive investment strategies and influence the variance in male mating success. Environmental effects on extrapair paternity have traditionally been ascribed to aspects of the social environment, such as breeding density and synchrony. However, social factors are often confounded with habitat quality and are challenging to disentangle. We used both natural variation in habitat quality and a food supplementation experiment to separate the effects of food availability-one key aspect of habitat quality-on extrapair paternity (EPP) and reproductive success in the black-throated blue warbler, Setophaga caerulescens. High natural food availability was associated with higher within-pair paternity (WPP) and fledging two broods late in the breeding season, but lower EPP. Food-supplemented males had higher WPP leading to higher reproductive success relative to controls, and when in low-quality habitat, food-supplemented males were more likely to fledge two broods but less likely to gain EPP. Our results demonstrate that food availability affects trade-offs in reproductive activities. When food constraints are reduced, males invest in WPP at the expense of EPP. These findings imply that environmental change could alter how individuals allocate their resources and affect the selective environment that drives variation in male mating success.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

Islands within an island: repeated adaptive divergence in a single population

Physical barriers to gene flow were once viewed as prerequisites for adaptive evolutionary divergence. However, a growing body of theoretical and empirical work suggests that divergence can proceed within a single population. Here we document genetic structure and spatially replicated patterns of phenotypic divergence within a bird species endemic to 250 km(2) Santa Cruz Island, California, USA. Island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis) in three separate stands of pine habitat had longer, shallower bills than jays in oak habitat, a pattern that mirrors adaptive differences between allopatric populations of the species' mainland congener. Variation in both bill measurements was heritable, and island scrub-jays mated nonrandomly with respect to bill morphology. The population was not panmictic; instead, we found a continuous pattern of isolation by distance across the east-west axis of the island, as well as a subtle genetic discontinuity across the boundary between the largest pine stand and adjacent oak habitat. The ecological factors that appear to have facilitated adaptive differentiation at such a fine scale--environmental heterogeneity and localized dispersal--are ubiquitous in nature. These findings support recent arguments that microgeographic patterns of adaptive divergence may be more common than currently appreciated, even in mobile taxonomic groups like birds.

Migratory connectivity of a Neotropical migratory songbird revealed by archival light-level geolocators

Understanding migratory connectivity is critical for interpreting population dynamics, seasonal interactions, and for the implementation of conservation strategies of migratory species. We evaluated the migratory connectivity of a Neotropical migratory songbird, the Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) using archival light-level geolocators deployed at two breeding and four nonbreeding locations while incorporating Ovenbird abundance as prior information using Bayes' Rule. We also included band recoveries submitted to the United States Geological Survey's Bird Banding Laboratory to assess connectivity of areas where geolocators were not deployed. We created a probabilistic map of origin for each capture site and mapped spring migration routes between nonbreeding and breeding locations. We found a complete separation of eastern and western populations of Ovenbirds throughout the annual cycle. Breeding Ovenbirds from western Canada spent the nonbreeding season throughout Central America and migrated through central North America during spring migration. Birds breeding in the northeastern United States were distributed throughout the central Greater Antilles in the Caribbean and migrated through eastern North America during spring migration. Fall migration routes were not included because the timing of migration coincided with fall equinox when latitudinal estimates are unreliable. However, longitudinal estimates suggest no overlap between eastern and western populations during fall migration. Ovenbirds with geolocators attached in Jamaica bred in the northeastern United States with the highest posterior probability of origin found in Massachusetts, while Ovenbirds captured in Florida and Puerto Rico bred primarily in the mid-Atlantic. Incorporating Ovenbird abundance as a prior into geolocator estimates decreased the area of origin by 90.37% ± 1.05% (mean ± SE) for the breeding season and 62.30% ± 1.69% for the nonbreeding season, compared to geolocator estimates alone. Ovenbirds exhibited strong migratory connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding season, which has important implications for various aspects of the ecology, evolution, and conservation.

Mitochondrial genomes suggest rapid evolution of dwarf California Channel Islands foxes (Urocyon littoralis)

Island endemics are typically differentiated from their mainland progenitors in behavior, morphology, and genetics, often resulting from long-term evolutionary change. To examine mechanisms for the origins of island endemism, we present a phylogeographic analysis of whole mitochondrial genomes from the endangered island fox (Urocyon littoralis), endemic to California's Channel Islands, and mainland gray foxes (U. cinereoargenteus). Previous genetic studies suggested that foxes first appeared on the islands >16,000 years ago, before human arrival (~13,000 cal BP), while archaeological and paleontological data supported a colonization >7000 cal BP. Our results are consistent with initial fox colonization of the northern islands probably by rafting or human introduction ~9200-7100 years ago, followed quickly by human translocation of foxes from the northern to southern Channel Islands. Mitogenomes indicate that island foxes are monophyletic and most closely related to gray foxes from northern California that likely experienced a Holocene climate-induced range shift. Our data document rapid morphological evolution of island foxes (in ~2000 years or less). Despite evidence for bottlenecks, island foxes have generated and maintained multiple mitochondrial haplotypes. This study highlights the intertwined evolutionary history of island foxes and humans, and illustrates a new approach for investigating the evolutionary histories of other island endemics.

Partitioning the sources of demographic variation reveals density-dependent nest predation in an island bird population

Ecological factors often shape demography through multiple mechanisms, making it difficult to identify the sources of demographic variation. In particular, conspecific density can influence both the strength of competition and the predation rate, but density-dependent competition has received more attention, particularly among terrestrial vertebrates and in island populations. A better understanding of how both competition and predation contribute to density-dependent variation in fecundity can be gained by partitioning the effects of density on offspring number from its effects on reproductive failure, while also evaluating how biotic and abiotic factors jointly shape demography. We examined the effects of population density and precipitation on fecundity, nest survival, and adult survival in an insular population of orange-crowned warblers (Oreothlypis celata) that breeds at high densities and exhibits a suite of traits suggesting strong intraspecific competition. Breeding density had a negative influence on fecundity, but it acted by increasing the probability of reproductive failure through nest predation, rather than through competition, which was predicted to reduce the number of offspring produced by successful individuals. Our results demonstrate that density-dependent nest predation can underlie the relationship between population density and fecundity even in a high-density, insular population where intraspecific competition should be strong.

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multistate models: a comparison to capture-recapture approaches

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N-mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N-mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state-specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density-dependent recruitment rates and state-specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture-recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density-dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture-recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales.

Warm springs, early lay dates, and double brooding in a North American migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler

Numerous studies have correlated the advancement of lay date in birds with warming climate trends, yet the fitness effects associated with this phenological response have been examined in only a small number of species. Most of these species–primarily insectivorous cavity nesters in Europe–exhibit fitness declines associated with increasing asynchrony with prey. Here, we use 25 years of demographic data, collected from 1986 to 2010, to examine the effects of spring temperature on breeding initiation date, double brooding, and annual fecundity in a Nearctic - Neotropical migratory songbird, the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens). Data were collected from birds breeding at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA, where long-term trends toward warmer springs have been recorded. We found that black-throated blue warblers initiated breeding earlier in warmer springs, that early breeders were more likely to attempt a second brood than those starting later in the season, and that double brooding and lay date were linked to higher annual fecundity. Accordingly, we found selection favored earlier breeding in most years. However, in contrast to studies of several other long-distance migratory species in Europe, this selection pressure was not stronger in warmer springs, indicating that these warblers were able to adjust mean lay date appropriately to substantial inter-annual variation in spring temperature. Our results suggest that this North American migratory songbird might not experience the same fecundity declines as songbirds that are unable to adjust their timing of breeding in pace with spring temperatures.

Hierarchical distance-sampling models to estimate population size and habitat-specific abundance of an island endemic

Population size and habitat-specific abundance estimates are essential for conservation management. A major impediment to obtaining such estimates is that few statistical models are able to simultaneously account for both spatial variation in abundance and heterogeneity in detection probability, and still be amenable to large-scale applications. The hierarchical distance-sampling model of J. A. Royle, D. K. Dawson, and S. Bates provides a practical solution. Here, we extend this model to estimate habitat-specific abundance and rangewide population size of a bird species of management concern, the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis), which occurs solely on Santa Cruz Island, California, USA. We surveyed 307 randomly selected, 300 m diameter, point locations throughout the 250-km2 island during October 2008 and April 2009. Population size was estimated to be 2267 (95% CI 1613-3007) and 1705 (1212-2369) during the fall and spring respectively, considerably lower than a previously published but statistically problematic estimate of 12 500. This large discrepancy emphasizes the importance of proper survey design and analysis for obtaining reliable information for management decisions. Jays were most abundant in low-elevation chaparral habitat; the detection function depended primarily on the percent cover of chaparral and forest within count circles. Vegetation change on the island has been dramatic in recent decades, due to release from herbivory following the eradication of feral sheep (Ovis aries) from the majority of the island in the mid-1980s. We applied best-fit fall and spring models of habitat-specific jay abundance to a vegetation map from 1985, and estimated the population size of A. insularis was 1400-1500 at that time. The 20-30% increase in the jay population suggests that the species has benefited from the recovery of native vegetation since sheep removal. Nevertheless, this jay's tiny range and small population size make it vulnerable to natural disasters and to habitat alteration related to climate change. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical distance-sampling models hold promise for estimating population size and spatial density variation at large scales. Our statistical methods have been incorporated into the R package unmarked to facilitate their use by animal ecologists, and we provide annotated code in the Supplement.