1
|
Reed PB, Bridgham SD, Pfeifer-Meister LE, Peterson ML, Johnson BR, Roy BA, Bailes GT, Nelson AA, Morris WF, Doak DF. Climate warming threatens the persistence of a community of disturbance-adapted native annual plants. Ecology 2021; 102:e03464. [PMID: 34236709 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3464] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2020] [Revised: 03/29/2021] [Accepted: 05/13/2021] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
Abstract
With ongoing climate change, populations are expected to exhibit shifts in demographic performance that will alter where a species can persist. This presents unique challenges for managing plant populations and may require ongoing interventions, including in situ management or introduction into new locations. However, few studies have examined how climate change may affect plant demographic performance for a suite of species, or how effective management actions could be in mitigating climate change effects. Over the course of two experiments spanning 6 yr and four sites across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, United States, we manipulated temperature, precipitation, and disturbance intensity, and quantified effects on the demography of eight native annual prairie species. Each year we planted seeds and monitored germination, survival, and reproduction. We found that disturbance strongly influenced demographic performance and that seven of the eight species had increasingly poor performance with warmer conditions. Across species and sites, we observed 11% recruitment (the proportion of seeds planted that survived to reproduction) following high disturbance, but just 3.9% and 2.3% under intermediate and low disturbance, respectively. Moreover, mean seed production following high disturbance was often more than tenfold greater than under intermediate and low disturbance. Importantly, most species exhibited precipitous declines in their population growth rates (λ) under warmer-than-ambient experimental conditions and may require more frequent disturbance intervention to sustain populations. Aristida oligantha, a C4 grass, was the only species to have λ increase with warmer conditions. These results suggest that rising temperatures may cause many native annual plant species to decline, highlighting the urgency for adaptive management practices that facilitate their restoration or introduction to newly suitable locations. Frequent and intense disturbances are critical to reduce competitors and promote native annuals' persistence, but even such efforts may prove futile under future climate regimes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Paul B Reed
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Scott D Bridgham
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | | | - Megan L Peterson
- Plant Biology Department, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, 30606, USA
| | - Bart R Johnson
- Department of Landscape Architecture, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Bitty A Roy
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Graham T Bailes
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - Aaron A Nelson
- Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, 97403, USA
| | - William F Morris
- Biology Department, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, 27708, USA
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, 80309, USA
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Oldfather MF, Koontz MJ, Doak DF, Ackerly DD. Range dynamics mediated by compensatory life stage responses to experimental climate manipulations. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:772-780. [PMID: 33559296 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13693] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2020] [Accepted: 01/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
The expectations of polar or upslope distributional shifts of species ranges in response to warming climate conditions have been recently questioned. Diverse responses of different life stages to changing temperature and moisture regimes may alter these predicted range dynamics. Furthermore, the climate driver(s) influencing demographic rates, and the contribution of each demographic rate to population growth rate (λ), may shift across a species range. We investigated these demographic effects by experimentally manipulating climate and measuring responses of λ in nine populations spanning the elevation range of an alpine plant (Ivesia lycopodioides). Populations exhibited stable growth rates (λ ~ 1) under naturally wet conditions and declining rates (λ < 1) under naturally dry conditions. However, opposing vital rate responses to experimental heating and watering lead to negligible or negative effects on population stability. These findings indicate that life stage-specific responses to changing climate can disrupt the current relationships between population stability and climate across species ranges.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Meagan F Oldfather
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA.,Department of Integrative Biology, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Michael J Koontz
- Earth Lab, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - Daniel F Doak
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - David D Ackerly
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.,Department of Environmental Science Policy and Management, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.,Jepson Herbarium, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| |
Collapse
|