Nonlinear life table response experiment analysis: Decomposing nonlinear and nonadditive population growth responses to changes in environmental drivers

Life table response experiments (LTREs) decompose differences in population growth rate between environments into separate contributions from each underlying demographic rate. However, most LTRE analyses make the unrealistic assumption that the relationships between demographic rates and environmental drivers are linear and independent, which may result in diminished accuracy when these assumptions are violated. We extend regression LTREs to incorporate nonlinear (second-order) terms and compare the accuracy of both approaches for three previously published demographic datasets. We show that the second-order approach equals or outperforms the linear approach for all three case studies, even when all of the underlying vital rate functions are linear. Nonlinear vital rate responses to driver changes contributed most to population growth rate responses, but life history changes also made substantial contributions. Our results suggest that moving from linear to second-order LTRE analyses could improve our understanding of population responses to changing environments.

How climate affects extreme events and hence ecological population models

Extreme events significantly impact ecosystems and are predicted to increase in frequency and/or magnitude with climate change. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions describe most ecologically relevant extreme events, including hurricanes, wildfires, and disease spread. In climate science, the GEV is widely used as an accurate and flexible tool over large spatial scales (>10⁵  km² ) to study how changes in climate shift extreme events. However, ecologists rarely use the GEV to study how climate change affects populations. Here we show how to estimate a GEV for hurricanes at an ecologically relevant (<10³  km² ) spatial scale, and use the results in a stochastic, empirically based, matrix population model. As a case study, we use an understory shrub in southeast Florida, USA with hurricane-driven dynamics and measure the effects of change using the stochastic population growth rate. We use sensitivities to analyze how population growth rate is affected by changes in hurricane frequency and intensity, canopy damage levels, and canopy recovery rates. Our results emphasize the importance of accurately estimating location-specific storm frequency. In a rapidly changing world, our methods show how to combine realistic extreme event and population models to assess ecological impacts and to prioritize conservation actions for at-risk populations.

Photosynthetic rates influence the population dynamics of understory herbs in stochastic light environments

Temporal variability in light from gaps in the tree canopy strongly influences the vital rates of understory plants. From 2012 to 2015, we estimated the size-specific vital rates of two herbs, Calathea crotalifera and Heliconia tortuosa, over a range of light environments. We estimated maximum photosynthetic capacity (A_max ) for a subset of individuals each year during three annual censuses, and modelled future size as a linear function of current size (a plant trait that changes ontogenetically), canopy openness (an environmental variable), and A_max (a potentially plastic physiological trait). We estimated what the demographic success would be of a population comprised of individuals with a particular fixed A_max for each of several levels of canopy openness if the environment remained constant, by evaluating corresponding Integral Projection Models and their deterministic growth rates (λ). We then estimated their demographic success in the stochastic light environment (λ_S ) and its elasticities. As light increased, deterministic λ increased for Calathea by 33% but decreased for Heliconia by 52%, and increasing A_max had no effect on λ for Calathea but increased λ for Heliconia in low light. As A_max increased, λ_S increased for Heliconia, but not Calathea. We also investigated whether photosynthetic rates would influence the elasticities of λ_S, including its response to perturbation of vital rates in each environment (E^S_β ), vital rates over all environments (E^S ), and variability of vital rates among environments (E^Sσ ). E^S , E^Sσ , and E^S_β were influenced by A_max for Heliconia but not Calathea. Events that affect some vital rates in high light have a greater impact on overall fitness than events that affect the same vital rates in shady environments, and there is greater potential for selection on traits of large individuals in high light than in low light for Heliconia, while the reverse was true for Calathea. Photosynthetic rates, through their effects on growth, can strongly influence the population dynamics of plants in random light environments, but the magnitude of this effect varies between species. In the species for which fitness was independent of A_max , Calathea, there would be little opportunity for selection on photosynthetic rates.

Poverty dynamics, poverty thresholds and mortality: An age-stage Markovian model

Recent studies have examined the risk of poverty throughout the life course, but few have considered how transitioning in and out of poverty shape the dynamic heterogeneity and mortality disparities of a cohort at each age. Here we use state-by-age modeling to capture individual heterogeneity in crossing one of three different poverty thresholds (defined as 1×, 2× or 3× the “official” poverty threshold) at each age. We examine age-specific state structure, the remaining life expectancy, its variance, and cohort simulations for those above and below each threshold. Survival and transitioning probabilities are statistically estimated by regression analyses of data from the Health and Retirement Survey RAND data-set, and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Using the results of these regression analyses, we parameterize discrete state, discrete age matrix models. We found that individuals above all three thresholds have higher annual survival than those in poverty, especially for mid-ages to about age 80. The advantage is greatest when we classify individuals based on 1× the “official” poverty threshold. The greatest discrepancy in average remaining life expectancy and its variance between those above and in poverty occurs at mid-ages for all three thresholds. And fewer individuals are in poverty between ages 40-60 for all three thresholds. Our findings are consistent with results based on other data sets, but also suggest that dynamic heterogeneity in poverty and the transience of the poverty state is associated with income-related mortality disparities (less transience, especially of those above poverty, more disparities). This paper applies the approach of age-by-stage matrix models to human demography and individual poverty dynamics. In so doing we extend the literature on individual poverty dynamics across the life course.

Experimental assemblage of novel plant-herbivore interactions: ecological host shifts after 40 million years of isolation

Geographic isolation is the first step in insect herbivore diet specialization. Such specialization is postulated to increase insect fitness, but may simultaneously reduce insect ability to colonize novel hosts. During the Paleocene-Eocene, plants from the order Zingiberales became isolated either in the Paleotropics or in the Neotropics. During the Cretaceous, rolled-leaf beetles diversified in the Neotropics concurrently with Neotropical Zingiberales. Using a community of Costa Rican rolled-leaf beetles and their Zingiberales host plants as study system, we explored if previous geographic isolation precludes insects to expand their diets to exotic hosts. We recorded interactions between rolled-leaf beetles and native Zingiberales by combining DNA barcodes and field records for 7450 beetles feeding on 3202 host plants. To determine phylogenetic patterns of diet expansions, we set 20 field plots including five exotic Zingiberales, recording beetles feeding on these exotic hosts. In the laboratory, using both native and exotic host plants, we reared a subset of insect species that had expanded their diets to the exotic plants. The original plant-herbivore community comprised 24 beetle species feeding on 35 native hosts, representing 103 plant-herbivore interactions. After exotic host plant introduction, 20% of the beetle species expanded their diets to exotic Zingiberales. Insects only established on exotic hosts that belong to the same plant family as their native hosts. Laboratory experiments show that beetles are able to complete development on these novel hosts. In conclusion, rolled-leaf beetles are pre-adapted to expand their diets to novel host plants even after millions of years of geographic isolation.

Interactions between plant size and canopy openness influence vital rates and life-history tradeoffs in two neotropical understory herbs

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PREMISE OF THE STUDY

For tropical forest understory plants, the ability to grow, survive, and reproduce is limited by the availability of light. The extent to which reproduction incurs a survival or growth cost may change with light availability, plant size, and adaptation to shade, and may vary among similar species.•

METHODS

We estimated size-specific rates of growth, survival, and reproduction (vital rates), for two neotropical understory herbs (order Zingiberales) in a premontane tropical rainforest in Costa Rica. During three annual censuses we monitored 1278 plants, measuring leaf area, number of inflorescences, and canopy openness. We fit regression models of all vital rates and evaluated them over a range of light levels. The best fitting models were selected using Akaike's Information Criterion.•

KEY RESULTS

All vital rates were significantly influenced by size in both species, but not always by light. Increasing light resulted in higher growth and a higher probability of reproduction in both species, but lower survival in one species. Both species grew at small sizes but shrank at larger sizes. The size at which shrinkage began differed among species and light environments. Vital rates of large individuals were more sensitive to changes in light than small individuals.•

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing light does not always positively influence vital rates; the extent to which light affects vital rates depends on plant size. Differences among species in their abilities to thrive under different light conditions and thus occupy distinct niches may contribute to the maintenance of species diversity.

Large size and high light do not lower the cost of reproduction for the Neotropical herb Goeppertia marantifolia

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PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Sexual reproduction is often associated with a cost in terms of reduced survival, growth, or future reproduction. It has been proposed that plant size and the environment (availability of key resources) can sometimes lower or even nullify the cost of reproduction.•

METHODS

We address this issue experimentally with the Neotropical herb Goeppertia marantifolia, by manipulating sexual reproductive effort and measuring the demographic performance of plants and of their clonal offspring, in the context of natural variation in light availability.•

KEY RESULTS

Plants in the high-reproductive-effort treatment grew less between seasons but did not differ in their probability of flowering the second season or in inflorescence size compared with plants in the low-effort treatment. Reproductive effort of parent plants influenced the leaf area of their clonal offspring. Plants that invested less in sexual reproduction produced clonal offspring that were initially larger than those produced by plants that invested more in reproduction. The magnitude of this effect was greater in parent plants that received two seasons of the manipulated reproductive effort than in those that received a single season. The trade-off between reproductive modes dampened with time, leading to smaller differences in clonal offspring leaf area between treatments over time.•

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence of a cost of reproduction and trade-offs between reproductive modes, although the magnitude of these costs was small. However, we found no evidence of lower costs of reproduction for larger plants or for plants in higher-light environments over our 2-yr study period.

Parent-offspring conflicts, "optimal bad motherhood" and the "mother knows best" principles in insect herbivores colonizing novel host plants

Specialization of insect herbivores to one or a few host plants stimulated the development of two hypotheses on how natural selection should shape oviposition preferences: The “mother knows best” principle suggests that females prefer to oviposit on hosts that increase offspring survival. The “optimal bad motherhood” principle predicts that females prefer to oviposit on hosts that increase their own longevity. In insects colonizing novel host plants, current theory predicts that initial preferences of insect herbivores should be maladaptive, leading to ecological traps. Ecological trap theory does not take into account the fact that insect lineages frequently switch hosts at both ecological and evolutionary time scales. Therefore, the behavior of insect herbivores facing novel hosts is also shaped by natural selection. Using a study system in which four Cephaloleia beetles are currently expanding their diets from native to exotic plants in the order Zingiberales, we determined if initial oviposition preferences are conservative, maladaptive, or follow the patterns predicted by the “mother knows best” or the “optimal bad motherhood” principles. Interactions with novel hosts generated parent–offspring conflicts. Larval survival was higher on native hosts. However, adult generally lived longer on novel hosts. In Cephaloleia beetles, oviposition preferences are usually associated with hosts that increase larval survival, female fecundity, and population growth. In most cases, Cephaloleia oviposition preferences follow the expectations of the “mothers knows best” principle.

Jack of all trades masters novel host plants: positive genetic correlations in specialist and generalist insect herbivores expanding their diets to novel hosts

One explanation for the widespread host specialization of insect herbivores is the 'Jack of all trades-master of none' principle, which states that genotypes with high performance on one host will perform poorly on other hosts. This principle predicts that cross-host correlation in performance of genotypes will be negative. In this study, we experimentally explored cross-host correlations and performance among families in four species (two generalist and two specialist) of leaf beetles (Cephaloleia spp.) that are currently expanding their diets from native to exotic plants. All four species displayed similar responses in body size, developmental rates and mortality rates to experimentally controlled diets. When raised on novel hosts, body size of larvae, pupae and adults were reduced. Development times were longer, and larval mortality was higher on novel hosts. Genotype × host-plant interactions were not detected for most traits. All significant cross-host correlations were positive. These results indicate very different ecological and evolutionary dynamics than those predicted by the 'Jack of all trades-master of none' principle.

Non-timber forest product harvest in variable environments: modeling the effect of harvesting as a stochastic sequence

With increasing reports of overexploitation of wild plants for timber and non-timber forest products, there has been an increase in the number of studies investigating the effect of harvest on the dynamics of harvested populations. However, most studies have failed to account for temporal and spatial variability in the ecological conditions in which these species occur, as well as variability in the patterns of harvest intensity. In reality, local harvesters harvest at variable rather than fixed intensity over time. Here we used Markov chains to investigate how different patterns of harvesting intensity (summarized as return time to high harvest) affected the stochastic population growth rate (lambda(s)) and its elasticity to perturbation of means and variances of vital rates. We studied the effect of bark and foliage harvest from African mahogany Khaya senegalensis in two contrasting ecological regions in Benin. Khaya populations declined regardless of time between harvests of high intensity. Moreover, lambda(s) increased with decreasing harvesting pressure in the dry region but, surprisingly, declined in the moist region toward lambda(s) = 0.956. The stochastic elasticity was dominated by the stasis of juveniles and adults. The declining growth rate with decreasing harvest pressure in the moist region was mainly driven by the declining mean survival rates of juveniles and adults. Our results suggest that modeling the temporal variability of harvest intensity as a Markov chain better mimics local practices and provides insights that are missed when temporal variability in harvest intensity is modeled as independent over time and drawn from a fixed distribution.

A time to grow and a time to die: a new way to analyze the dynamics of size, light, age, and death of tropical trees

In tropical rain forests, rates of forest turnover and tree species' life-history differences are shaped by the life expectancy of trees and the time taken by seedlings to reach the canopy. These measures are therefore of both theoretical and applied interest. However, the relationship between size, age, and life expectancy is poorly understood. In this paper, we show how to obtain, in a dynamic environment, age-related population parameters from data on size and light transitions and survival of individuals over single time steps. We accomplish this goal by combining two types of analysis (integral projection modeling and age-from-stage analysis for variable environments) in a new way. The method uses an index of crown illumination (CI) to capture the key tree life-history axis of movement through the light environment. We use this method to analyze data on nine tropical tree species, chosen to sample two main gradients, juvenile recruitment niche (gap/nongap) and adult crown position niche (subcanopy, canopy-emergent). We validate the method using independent estimates of age and size from growth rings and 14C from some of the same species at the same site and use our results to examine correlations among age-related population parameters. Finally, we discuss the implications of these new results for life histories of tropical trees.

Growth and survival across a gap-understory gradient: Contrast in performance of sexually vs. clonally produced offspring

Sexually and clonally produced offspring may respond to environmental heterogeneity by growing and surviving at different rates. In forest understories, the availability of light ranges from low in shaded, closed canopy to high in tree-fall gaps. We experimentally investigated the growth and survival of both types of offspring in three treatments (gap centers, gap edges, and shaded understory) over 16 months. We expected the demographic performance of both types of offspring to be highest in the centers of gaps and lowest in the shaded understory. However, we expected seedlings to be more sensitive to the gradient in light (larger difference in growth and survival between light levels) than vegetative offspring because of their small size and lack of connection to maternal resources. Both offspring types grew fastest and obtained their largest sizes in gap centers. Contrary to our expectations, offspring types differed in which light conditions favored highest survival. Seedlings survived best in gap centers, while vegetative offspring had their highest survival in the shaded understory. In agreement with our hypothesis, survival and growth of seedlings were more sensitive to light availability, showing a large difference in growth and survival between light levels, compared to vegetative offspring.

Stage dynamics, period survival, and mortality plateaus

Mortality plateaus at advanced ages have been found in many species, but their biological causes remain unclear. Here, we exploit age-from-stage methods for organisms with stage-structured demography to study cohort dynamics, obtaining age patterns of mortality by weighting one-period stage-specific survivals by expected age-specific stage structure. Cohort dynamics behave as a killed Markov process. Using as examples two African grasses, one pine tree, a temperate forest perennial herb, and a subtropical shrub in a hurricane-driven forest, we illustrate diverse patterns that may emerge. Age-specific mortality always reaches a plateau at advanced ages, but the plateau may be reached rapidly or slowly, and the trajectory may follow positive or negative senescence along the way. In variable environments, birth state influences mortality at early but not late ages, although its effect on the level of survivorship persists. A new parameter micro omega summarizes the risk of mortality averaged over the entire lifetime in a variable environment. Recent aging models for humans that employ nonobservable abstract states of "vitality" are also known to produce diverse trajectories and similar asymptotic behavior. We discuss connections, contrasts, and implications of our results to these models for the study of aging.

Sensitivity of the population growth rate to demographic variability within and between phases of the disturbance cycle

For species in disturbance-prone ecosystems, vital rates (survival, growth and reproduction) often vary both between and within phases of the cycle of disturbance and recovery; some of this variation is imposed by the environment, but some may represent adaptation of the life history to disturbance. Anthropogenic changes may amplify or impede these patterns of variation, and may have positive or negative effects on population growth. Using stochastic population projection matrix models, we develop stochastic elasticities (proportional derivatives of the long-run population growth rate) to gauge the population effects of three types of change in demographic variability (changes in within- and between-disturbance-phase variability and phase-specific changes). Computing these elasticities for five species of disturbance-influenced perennial plants, we pinpoint demographic rates that may reveal adaptation to disturbance, and we demonstrate that species may differ in their responses to different types of changes in demographic variability driven by climate change.

FROM STAGE TO AGE IN VARIABLE ENVIRONMENTS: LIFE EXPECTANCY AND SURVIVORSHIP

Stage-based demographic data are now available on many species of plants and some animals, and they often display temporal and spatial variability. We provide exact formulas to compute age-specific life expectancy and survivorship from stage-based data for three models of temporal variability: cycles, serially independent random variation, and a Markov chain. These models provide a comprehensive description of patterns of temporal variation. Our formulas describe the effects of cohort (birth) environmental condition on mortality at all ages, and of the effects on survivorship of environmental variability experienced over the course of life. This paper complements existing methods for time-invariant stage-based data, and adds to the information on population growth and dynamics available from stochastic demography.

The Many Growth Rates and Elasticities of Populations in Random Environments

Despite considerable interest in the dynamics of populations subject to temporally varying environments, alternate population growth rates and their sensitivities remain incompletely understood. For a Markovian environment, we compare and contrast the meanings of the stochastic growth rate (lambdaS), the growth rate of average population (lambdaM), the growth rate for average transition rates (lambdaA), and the growth rate of an aggregate represented by a megamatrix (shown here to equal lambdaM). We distinguish these growth rates by the averages that define them. We illustrate our results using data on an understory shrub in a hurricane-disturbed landscape, employing a range of hurricane frequencies. We demonstrate important differences among growth rates: lambdaS<lambdaM, but lambdaA can be < or > lambdaM. We show that stochastic elasticity, ESij, and megamatrix elasticity, EMij, describe a complex perturbation of both means and variances of rates by the same proportion. Megamatrix elasticities respond slightly and stochastic elasticities respond strongly to changing the frequency of disturbance in the habitat (in our example, the frequency of hurricanes). The elasticity EAij of lambdaA does not predict changes in the other elasticities. Because ES, although commonly utilized, is difficult to interpret, we introduce elasticities with a more direct interpretation: ESmu for perturbations of means and ESsigma for variances. We argue that a fundamental tool for studying selection pressures in varying environments is the response of growth rate to vital rates in all habitat states.

Variation Among Floral Visitors in Pollination Ability: A Precondition for Mutualism Specialization

The unusual floral biology of a neotropical herb provided an opportunity to determine that floral visitors varied significantly in their ability to effect fruit-set. Pollination efficiency and visitation frequency varied among Hymenoptera (five taxa), which were responsible for 99 percent of all fruits set. Lepidoptera (four taxa) were common visitors but poor pollinators. These results indicate that flower visitors vary in their beneficial effects on plants, fulfilling one of the primary conditions required for the specialization of plants on pollinators.