Quantifying natural variability as a method to detect environmental change: Definitions of the normal range for a single observation and the mean of m observations

Using normal ranges for interpreting results of monitoring and tiering to guide future work: A case study of increasing polycyclic aromatic compounds in lake sediments from the Cold Lake oil sands (Alberta, Canada) described in Korosi et al. (2016)

Since the publishing of the Kelly et al. papers (2009, 2010) describing elevated contaminants in snow near the Alberta oil sands, there has been a significant expansion of monitoring efforts, enhanced by $50M a year contributed by industry to a regional Joint Oil Sands Monitoring (JOSM) program. In parallel to the intensification of research and monitoring efforts, including expansion of measured indicators, techniques for chemical analysis have also become more sensitive. Both factors contribute to the increased sensitivity and power, and improve our capacity to detect any change. The increase in capability requires a counterbalance to account for trivial change. This can be done using an interpretative approach that requires contextualization of differences to meaningfully inform environmental monitoring programs and provide focus for action. Experience obtained through 25 years of involvement with Canada's Environmental Effects Monitoring (EEM) program has shown that a tiered program informed by triggers can provide the context to make decisions about monitoring priorities. Here we provide a potential interpretation framework using a case study around the Korosi et al. (2016) study which found recent increases in alkylated polycyclic aromatic compounds (aPACs) in the Cold Lake in situ oil sands area. Public contaminant profiles from the JOSM studies in the oil sands region are used to evaluate the changes using an interpretation framework based on estimated normal ranges using existing data for site-specific, local and regional (distant) levels that was modelled after the tiered Canadian EEM design.

Comparison in waterborne Cu, Ni and Pb bioaccumulation kinetics between different gammarid species and populations: Natural variability and influence of metal exposure history

Kinetic parameters (uptake from solution and elimination rate constants) of Cu, Ni and Pb bioaccumulation were determined from two Gammarus pulex and three Gammarus fossrum wild populations collected from reference sites throughout France in order to assess the inter-species and the natural inter-population variability of metal bioaccumulation kinetics in that sentinel organism. For that, each population was independently exposed for seven days to either 2.5μgL^-1 Cu (39.3nM), 40μgL^-1 Ni (681nM) or 10μgL^-1 Pb (48.3nM) in laboratory controlled conditions, and then placed in unexposed microcosms for a 7-day depuration period. In the same way, the possible influence of metal exposure history on subsequent metal bioaccumulation kinetics was addressed by collecting wild gammarids from three populations inhabiting stations contaminated either by Cd, Pb or both Pb and Ni (named pre-exposed thereafter). In these pre-exposed organisms, assessment of any changes in metal bioaccumulation kinetics was achieved by comparison with the natural variability of kinetic parameters defined from reference populations. Results showed that in all studied populations (reference and pre-exposed) no significant Cu bioaccumulation was observed at the exposure concentration of 2.5μgL^-1. Concerning the reference populations, no significant differences in Ni and Pb bioaccumulation kinetics between the two species (G. pulex and G. fossarum) was observed allowing us to consider all the five reference populations to determine the inter-population natural variability, which was found to be relatively low (kinetic parameters determined for each population remained within a factor of 2 of the minimum and maximum values). Organisms from the population exhibiting a Pb exposure history presented reduced Ni uptake and elimination rate constants, whereas no influence on Ni kinetic parameters was observed in organisms from the population exhibiting an exposure history to both Ni and Pb. Furthermore Pb bioaccumulation kinetics were unaffected whatever the condition of pre-exposure in natural environment. Finally, these results highlight the complexity of confounding factors, such as metal exposure history, that influence metal bioaccumulation processes and showed that pre-exposure to one metal can cause changes in the bioaccumulation kinetics of other metals. These results also address the question of the underlying mechanisms developed by organisms to cope with metal contamination.

PRAME Gene Copy Number Variation Is Related to Its Expression in Multiple Myeloma

Multiple myeloma (MM) patients commonly present abnormal expression of cancer-testis antigens, which may serve as immunotherapeutic targets and prognostic factors. We previously reported that preferentially expressed antigen of melanoma (PRAME) overexpression in bone marrow mononuclear cells is related to progression in MM patients treated with non-bortezomib-containing regimens. The mechanism underlying variations in PRAME expression remains unknown. To investigate the impact of gene copy number variation (CNV) on PRAME expression, plasma cells were sorted from 50 newly diagnosed patients and 8 healthy volunteers to measure PRAME transcript levels and gene copy numbers by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. A total of 14 (28.0%), 7 (14.0%), and 29 (58.0%) patients exhibited overexpression, expression within the normal range, and low expression, respectively. PRAME overexpression was significantly related to a lower 1-year progression-free survival rate compared with PRAME low expression (20.0% vs. 88.9%, p = 0.043). The mean PRAME gene copy number relative to albumin (ALB) in normal samples was ∼1.0, whereas 4.0%, 24.0%, 70.0%, and 2.0% of patients had PRAME gene relative copy numbers of approximately 0, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0, respectively. Patients with PRAME gene deletion (relative copy number of 0 or 0.5) had significantly higher frequency of PRAME nonoverexpression and lambda light chain expression than those with no deletion (p = 0.011 and 0.003). Thus, PRAME gene CNV occurs in MM. Gene deletion may be one mechanism leading to PRAME nonoverexpression and related to immunoglobulin lambda light chain locus rearrangement. PRAME overexpression in plasma cells might be an adverse prognostic factor for progression in MM.

Increased size and relative abundance of migratory fishes observed near the Athabasca oil sands

Responses to chemical and physical stressors are commonly expected among organisms residing near the Athabasca oil sands. Physiological effects have been observed in fishes during field studies; but further effects associated with development are not clear or consistent among species. For instance, data from a fish fence in 2009 show declines in the relative abundances of some species, including Arctic grayling ( Thymallus arcticus). In contrast, increases were seen in white sucker ( Catostomus commersoni). This divergence suggests incomplete understanding of the status of fishes residing near the oil sands. However, an important challenge limiting understanding is the lack of reliable baseline or reference data. To overcome this challenge, we used iterative normal ranges and a historical data set (electrofishing surveys done from 1987 to 2014) to determine if changes have occurred in fishes captured in the lower Athabasca River. These analyses revealed clear increases in the lengths of white sucker and walleye ( Sander vitreus) and their relative abundances during the spawning season. The occurrence of these changes may be associated with overwintering location, but reduced fishing pressure in Lake Athabasca, eutrophication, or a cumulative effect may explain the form of changes detected in this study.

Using adaptive processes and adverse outcome pathways to develop meaningful, robust, and actionable environmental monitoring programs

The primary goals of environmental monitoring are to indicate whether unexpected changes related to development are occurring in the physical, chemical, and biological attributes of ecosystems and to inform meaningful management intervention. Although achieving these objectives is conceptually simple, varying scientific and social challenges often result in their breakdown. Conceptualizing, designing, and operating programs that better delineate monitoring, management, and risk assessment processes supported by hypothesis-driven approaches, strong inference, and adverse outcome pathways can overcome many of the challenges. Generally, a robust monitoring program is characterized by hypothesis-driven questions associated with potential adverse outcomes and feedback loops informed by data. Specifically, key and basic features are predictions of future observations (triggers) and mechanisms to respond to success or failure of those predictions (tiers). The adaptive processes accelerate or decelerate the effort to highlight and overcome ignorance while preventing the potentially unnecessary escalation of unguided monitoring and management. The deployment of the mutually reinforcing components can allow for more meaningful and actionable monitoring programs that better associate activities with consequences. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:877-891. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Integrating causation in investigative ecological weight of evidence assessments

Weight of evidence (WOE) frameworks integrate environmental assessment data to reach conclusions regarding relative certainty of adverse environmental effects due to stressors, possible causation, and key uncertainties. Such studies can be investigative (i.e., determining whether adverse impact is occurring to identify a need for management) or retrospective (i.e., determining the cause of a detected impact such that management efforts focus on the correct stressor). Such WOE assessments do not themselves definitively establish causation; they provide the basis for subsequent follow-up studies to further investigate causation. We propose a modified investigative WOE framework that includes an additional weighting step, which we term "direction weighting." This additional step allows for the examination of alternative hypotheses and provides improved certainty regarding possible causation. To our knowledge, this approach has not been previously applied in investigative ecological WOE assessments. We provide a generic example of 2 conflicting hypotheses related to a mine discharging treated effluent to a freshwater lake: chemical toxicity versus nutrient enrichment. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:702-713. © 2016 SETAC.

Active biomonitoring with Corbicula for USEPA priority pollutant and metal sources in the Anacostia River (DC, Maryland, USA)

The freshwater Anacostia River watershed (Maryland, DC, USA) was surveyed for the sources of bioavailable US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Priority Pollutants and toxic metals by active biomontoring (ABM) using the freshwater Asiatic clam Corbicula fluminea. The Anacostia River is a 456 km(2) tributary of the tidal freshwater Potomac River that includes the city of Washington, DC where edible fish are highly contaminated with PCBs and chlordane. From 1999 to 2011, Corbicula were collected for ABM from a Potomac reference site and translocated in cages placed at 45 sites in the tidal and nontidal Anacostia watershed. Minimum clam mortality and maximum contaminant bioaccumulation was with 2-week translocation. The clam tissues (28-50) were combined at sites and analyzed by TestAmerica for 66 USEPA Priority Pollutants plus technical chlordane, benz(e) pyrene, and 6 metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Pb). Tissue contaminants reflected water, not sediment, levels. To compare sites, all contaminant data above detection or reference were grouped as total metals (TMET), total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (TPAH), total PCB congeners (TPCB), total pesticides (TPEST), and total technical chlordane (TCHL). Tidal Anacostia ABM found highest TPAH and TCHL upstream at Bladensburg Marina (MD) except for TCHL at site PP near the confluence. Five nontidal MD subtributaries (94% of flow) had 17 sites with bioavailable TPAH, TPCB, or TCHL 2 to 3 times higher than found at the toxic-sediment "hotspots" near Washington. The only TMET noted was Fe at 1 site. TPAH in MD subtributaries was highest near industrial parks and Metro stations. A naphthalene spill was detected in Watts Branch. TPCB (low molecular weight) originated upstream at 1 industrial park. Total technical chlordane (80% of TPEST) was 2 to 5 times the US Food and Drug Administration action in 4 nontidal tributaries where heptachlor indicated legacy chlordane dumpsites. Total technical chlordane fell to reference below a stormwater pond, suggesting transport via suspended sediment. Controlling the formation and movement of contaminated TSS in MD should enable the uncontaminated-sediment capping of Washington DC's toxic-sediment "hot-spots" that are presently considered responsible for fish contamination. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:548-558. © 2015 SETAC.