Panarchy: opportunities and challenges for ecosystem management

Multi-scale adaptive management of social-ecological systems

Adaptive management is a powerful approach to management of social-ecological systems in circumstances with high uncertainty and high controllability. Cross-scale interactions increase uncertainty while managing. When undertaking adaptive management, although largely overlooked, it is important to account for spatial and temporal scales to mediate within- and cross-scale effects of management actions. This is particularly true when managing for multiple social and ecological goals. The iterative nature of an adaptive approach has the capacity to accommodate tradeoffs among different stakeholder priorities and multiple ecosystem attributes within and across scales. In this paper, we introduce multi-scale adaptive management of social-ecological systems and demonstrate the importance of this approach with case studies of the Great Plains of North America and the Platte River Basin in the United States. Adaptive management combined with a focus on scale and cross-scale interactions using the panarchy model of social-ecological systems can help to improve management outcomes.

Towards a global sustainable development agenda built on social-ecological resilience

Non-technical summary

The United Nations' sustainable development goals (SDGs) articulate societal aspirations for people and our planet. Many scientists have criticised the SDGs and some have suggested that a better understanding of the complex interactions between society and the environment should underpin the next global development agenda. We further this discussion through the theory of social-ecological resilience, which emphasises the ability of systems to absorb, adapt, and transform in the face of change. We determine the strengths of the current SDGs, which should form a basis for the next agenda, and identify key gaps that should be filled.

Technical summary

The United Nations' sustainable development goals (SDGs) are past their halfway point and the next global development agenda will soon need to be developed. While laudable, the SDGs have received strong criticism from many, and scholars have proposed that adopting complex adaptive or social-ecological system approaches would increase the effectiveness of the agenda. Here we dive deeper into these discussions to explore how the theory of social-ecological resilience could serve as a strong foundation for the next global sustainable development agenda. We identify the strengths and weaknesses of the current SDGs by determining which of the 169 targets address each of 43 factors affecting social-ecological resilience that we have compiled from the literature. The SDGs with the strongest connections to social-ecological resilience are the environment-focus goals (SDGs 2, 6, 13, 14, 15), which are also the goals consistently under-prioritised in the implementation of the current agenda. In terms of the 43 factors affecting social-ecological resilience, the SDG strengths lie in their communication, inclusive decision making, financial support, regulatory incentives, economic diversity, and transparency in governance and law. On the contrary, ecological factors of resilience are seriously lacking in the SDGs, particularly with regards to scale, cross-scale interactions, and non-stationarity.

Social media summary

The post-2030 agenda should build on strengths of SDGs 2, 6, 13, 14, 15, and fill gaps in scale, variability, and feedbacks.

Panarchy theory for convergence

Coping with surprise and uncertainty resulting from the emergence of undesired and unexpected novelty or the sudden reorganization of systems at multiple spatiotemporal scales requires both a scientific process that can incorporate diverse expertise and viewpoints, and a scientific framework that can account for the structure and dynamics of interacting social-ecological systems (SES) and the inherent uncertainty of what might emerge in the future. We argue that combining a convergence scientific process with a panarchy framework provides a pathway for improving our understanding of, and response to, emergence. Emergent phenomena are often unexpected (e.g., pandemics, regime shifts) and can be highly disruptive, so can pose a significant challenge to the development of sustainable and resilient SES. Convergence science is a new approach promoted by the U.S. National Science Foundation for tackling complex problems confronting humanity through the integration of multiple perspectives, expertise, methods, tools, and analytical approaches. Panarchy theory is a framework useful for studying emergence, because it characterizes complex systems of people and nature as dynamically organized and structured within and across scales of space and time. It accounts for the fundamental tenets of complex systems and explicitly grapples with emergence, including the emergence of novelty, and the emergent property of social-ecological resilience. We provide an overview of panarchy, convergence science, and emergence. We discuss the significant data and methodological challenges of using panarchy in a convergence approach to address emergent phenomena, as well as state-of-the-art methods for overcoming them. We present two examples that would benefit from such an approach: climate change and its impacts on social-ecological systems, and the relationships between infectious disease and social-ecological systems.

Panarchy suggests why management mitigates rather than restores ecosystems from anthropogenic impact

Panarchy, a model of dynamic systems change at multiple, interconnected spatiotemporal scales, allows assessing whether management influences ecological processes and resilience. We assessed whether liming, a management action to counteract anthropogenic acidification, influenced scale-specific temporal fluctuation frequencies of benthic invertebrates and phytoplankton assemblages in lakes. We also tested whether these fluctuations correlated with proxies of liming (Ca:Mg ratios) to quantify scale-specific management effects. Using an ecosystem experiment and monitoring data, time series analyses (1998-2019) revealed significant multiscale temporal (and thus panarchy) structure for littoral invertebrates across limed and reference lakes. Such patterns were inconsistent for sublittoral invertebrates and phytoplankton. When significant panarchy structure was found, Ca:Mg ratios correlated with only a few of the identified temporal fluctuation frequencies across limed and reference lakes. This suggests that liming effects become diluted in the managed lakes. The lack of manifestations of liming across the independent temporal fluctuation patterns suggest that this lake management form fails to create and enforce cross-scale interactions, a crucial component of ecological resilience. This interpretation supports liming as a mitigation effort rather than a tool to restore acidified lakes to a self-organizing system equivalent of circumneutral references.

Next-generation technologies unlock new possibilities to track rangeland productivity and quantify multi-scale conservation outcomes

Historically, relying on plot-level inventories impeded our ability to quantify large-scale change in plant biomass, a key indicator of conservation practice outcomes in rangeland systems. Recent technological advances enable assessment at scales appropriate to inform management by providing spatially comprehensive estimates of productivity that are partitioned by plant functional group across all contiguous US rangelands. We partnered with the Sage Grouse and Lesser Prairie-Chicken Initiatives and the Nebraska Natural Legacy Project to demonstrate the ability of these new datasets to quantify multi-scale changes and heterogeneity in plant biomass following mechanical tree removal, prescribed fire, and prescribed grazing. In Oregon's sagebrush steppe, for example, juniper tree removal resulted in a 21% increase in one pasture's productivity and an 18% decline in another. In Nebraska's Loess Canyons, perennial grass productivity initially declined 80% at sites invaded by trees that were prescriptively burned, but then fully recovered post-fire, representing a 492% increase from nadir. In Kansas' Shortgrass Prairie, plant biomass increased 4-fold (966,809 kg/ha) in pastures that were prescriptively grazed, with gains highly dependent upon precipitation as evidenced by sensitivity of remotely sensed estimates (SD ± 951,308 kg/ha). Our results emphasize that next-generation remote sensing datasets empower land managers to move beyond simplistic control versus treatment study designs to explore nuances in plant biomass in unprecedented ways. The products of new remote sensing technologies also accelerate adaptive management and help communicate wildlife and livestock forage benefits from management to diverse stakeholders.

Spatiotemporal variability in Swedish lake ecosystems

Studying ecosystem dynamics is critical to monitoring and managing linked systems of humans and nature. Due to the growth of tools and techniques for collecting data, information on the condition of these systems is more widely available. While there are a variety of approaches for mining and assessing data, there is a need for methods to detect latent characteristics in ecosystems linked to temporal and spatial patterns of change. Resilience-based approaches have been effective at not only identifying environmental change but also providing warning in advance of critical transitions in social-ecological systems (SES). In this study, we examine the usefulness of one such method, Fisher Information (FI) for spatiotemporal analysis. FI is used to assess patterns in data and has been established as an effective tool for capturing complex system dynamics to include regimes and regime shifts. We employed FI to assess the biophysical condition of eighty-five Swedish lakes from 1996–2018. Results showed that FI captured spatiotemporal changes in the Swedish lakes and identified distinct spatial patterns above and below the Limes Norrlandicus, a hard ecotone boundary which separates northern and southern ecoregions in Sweden. Further, it revealed that spatial variance changed approaching this boundary. Our results demonstrate the utility of this resilience-based approach for spatiotemporal and spatial regimes analyses linked to monitoring and managing critical watersheds and waterbodies impacted by accelerating environmental change.

Social vulnerability, social-ecological resilience and coastal governance

Non-technical summary

Our analysis shows that the framing of social vulnerability is shaped by a narrow definition of resilience, focusing on post-disaster return and recovery responses. This perspective does not account for the dynamism and non-stationarity of social-ecological systems (SES) which is becoming increasingly important in the face of accelerating environmental change. Incorporating social-ecological resilience into social vulnerability analysis can improve coastal governance by accounting for adaptation and transformation, as well as scale and cross-scale interactions.

Technical summary

Social vulnerability analysis has been unable to deliver outcomes that reflect the reality of vulnerability and its consequences in an era characterised by accelerating environmental change. In this work, we used critical discourse analysis and key informant interviews to understand different framings of social vulnerability in coastal governance and management, globally and in New Zealand. We found that the framing of system vulnerability could vary depending on the definition of resilience adopted, which has critical ramifications for coastal governance of linked systems of humans and nature. We found that the framing of social vulnerability in coastal governance is mainly influenced by engineering, community and disaster resilience, focusing on return and recovery governance responses to environmental change (e.g. hurricanes, wildfires). Instead, we suggest a novel perspective based on social-ecological resilience, which more accurately reflects the dynamics of linked systems of humans and nature (SES). This revised perspective, general vulnerability, accounts for the dynamics of Earth's systems across various spatial and temporal scales in the face of accelerating environmental change. Accounting for social-ecological resilience and its core aspects (i.e. panarchy, adaptation and transformation) is essential for informing coastal governance of SES (Do we adapt? or Do we transform the SES?).

Social media summary

Social-ecological resilience is essential for social vulnerability analysis in the face of accelerating environmental change.

Exploring the Factors of Rural Tourism Recovery in the Post-COVID-19 Era Based on the Grounded Theory: A Case Study of Tianxi Village in Hunan Province, China

Effective recovery of rural tourism in the post-COVID-19 era could consolidate achievements in poverty alleviation and promote rural revitalization in China. In order to explore the factors influencing the rural tourism recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, this explorative–qualitative study chose Tianxi village in Hunan province of China as a typical case, as it has been officially selected as one of the key national villages for developing rural tourism. It was found that the process of rural tourism recovery in the post-COVID-19 era consists substantially of the development and evolutionary resilience in rural tourism. In the proposed theoretical model, the governance capability of local governments, robustness of rural social networks, activeness of rural talent, innovativeness of development mechanisms, and persistence of resilience cultivation are all essential factors throughout this process. Evolutionary resilience of rural tourism could enable destinations to manage unpredictable crises and even to seize novel development opportunities.

How Strong Sustainability Became Safety

The core commitment of strong sustainability, SS, is that nature really is different: there are strict limits to the substitutability of natural and other kinds of capital. Initially, the threat to sustainability was perceived as human greed and impatience, and the goal of SS to address resource scarcity was to sustain resource stocks, the flow of environmental services, and/or the harvest for human benefit. For landscapes and ecosystems, the SS goal was preservation, often in a gestalt framing: preserved or not. Two developments beginning around the mid-20th century—increasing awareness of the variability of natural systems, and the revolutionary changes in thinking motivated by the study of complex dynamic systems, CDS—re-oriented SS toward Safety, i.e., minimizing exposure to risk defined as threat of harm. Around 2010, the sustainability agenda for CDS shifted from identifying early warning indicators enabling timely interventions to forestall adverse regime change to promoting resilience by expanding scale and encouraging patchwork patterns of systems in various stages of their adaptive cycles. Nevertheless, the need for natural resources to substitute for depleted exhaustibles suggests a continuing role for commercial agriculture, plantation forestry, and managed fisheries. I conclude with a paradox still to be resolved: the need for continued and increased production from renewable resources to replace depleted exhaustibles suggests SS-motivated management practices that seem obsolete from a CDS perspective.

Complex adaptive governance systems: a framework to understand institutions, organizations, and people in socio-ecological systems

Governance is the reason for and solution to complex problems in socio-ecological systems (SESs). Governance refers to the institutions, organizations, and people involved in and affected by socio-ecological practices (SEPs), such as research, planning, design, construction, restoration, conservation, and management. The complexity of SESs requires the ability to understand and identify how the social world produces differential opportunities, constraints, and resources across multiple levels and scales of governance systems and as a consequence undesirable SEP outcomes for social equity, human well-being, and environmental integrity. This paper presents a complex adaptive governance systems framework (CAGS-F) designed to provide guidance, organization, and basic conceptualizations of social scientific concepts and terms for diagnostic, descriptive, and prescriptive inquiry into SEPs for the purpose of improving justice and sustainability. CAGS-F is unique for synthesizing the panarchy heuristic’s focus on socio-ecological interdependence, cross-scalar, multi-causal, non-linear complexity, and change with compatible social scientific theories of multi-level institutions, organizations, and human practices. The framework works from a critical realist orientation to reveal how power and privilege embedded in institutions, organizations, and human practices produce inequitable and/or undesirable SEP outcomes. The structure of the framework employs analytic dualism to provide a way to identify where, at what level and scale, who is included and/or adversely affected, and at which point in discrete adaptive cycles across institutional, organizational, and human practices opportunities, barriers, and leverage points exist so as to optimize design, planning, programming, and implementation of SEPs or evaluate unintended and unforeseen, less than successful, inequitable, and/or undesirable outcomes.

Vulnerable Waters are Essential to Watershed Resilience

Watershed resilience is the ability of a watershed to maintain its characteristic system state while concurrently resisting, adapting to, and reorganizing after hydrological (for example, drought, flooding) or biogeochemical (for example, excessive nutrient) disturbances. Vulnerable waters include non-floodplain wetlands and headwater streams, abundant watershed components representing the most distal extent of the freshwater aquatic network. Vulnerable waters are hydrologically dynamic and biogeochemically reactive aquatic systems, storing, processing, and releasing water and entrained (that is, dissolved and particulate) materials along expanding and contracting aquatic networks. The hydrological and biogeochemical functions emerging from these processes affect the magnitude, frequency, timing, duration, storage, and rate of change of material and energy fluxes among watershed components and to downstream waters, thereby maintaining watershed states and imparting watershed resilience. We present here a conceptual framework for understanding how vulnerable waters confer watershed resilience. We demonstrate how individual and cumulative vulnerable-water modifications (for example, reduced extent, altered connectivity) affect watershed-scale hydrological and biogeochemical disturbance response and recovery, which decreases watershed resilience and can trigger transitions across thresholds to alternative watershed states (for example, states conducive to increased flood frequency or nutrient concentrations). We subsequently describe how resilient watersheds require spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability in hydrological and biogeochemical interactions between terrestrial systems and down-gradient waters, which necessitates attention to the conservation and restoration of vulnerable waters and their downstream connectivity gradients. To conclude, we provide actionable principles for resilient watersheds and articulate research needs to further watershed resilience science and vulnerable-water management.

Tracking spatial regimes as an early warning for a species of conservation concern

In this era of global environmental change and rapid regime shifts, managing core areas that species require to survive and persist is a grand challenge for conservation. Wildlife monitoring data are often limited or local in scale. The emerging ability to map and track spatial regimes (i.e., the spatial manifestation of state transitions) using advanced geospatial vegetation data has the potential to provide earlier warnings of habitat loss because many species of conservation concern strongly avoid spatial regime boundaries. Using 23 yr of data for the lek locations of Greater Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido; GPC) in a remnant grassland ecosystem, we demonstrate how mapping changes in the boundaries between grassland and woodland spatial regimes provide a spatially explicit early warning signal for habitat loss for an iconic and vulnerable grassland-obligate known to be highly sensitive to woody plant encroachment. We tested whether a newly proposed metric for the quantification of spatial regimes captured well-known responses of GPC to woody plant expansion into grasslands. Resource selection functions showed that the grass:woody spatial regime boundary strength explained the probability of 80% of relative lek occurrence, and GPC strongly avoided grass:woody spatial regime boundaries at broad scales. Both findings are consistent with well-known expectations derived from GPC ecology. These results provide strong evidence for vegetation-derived delineations of spatial regimes to serve as generalized signals of early warning for state transitions that have major consequences to biodiversity conservation. Mapping spatial regime boundaries over time provided interpretable early warnings of habitat loss. Woody plant regimes displaced grassland regimes starting from the edges of the study area and constricting inward. Correspondingly, the relative probability of lek occurrence constricted in space. Similarly, the temporal trajectory of spatial regime boundary strength increased over time and moved closer to the observed limit of GPC lek site usage relative to grass:woody boundary strength. These novel spatial metrics allow managers to rapidly screen for early warning signals of spatial regime shifts and adapt management practices to defend and grow habitat cores at broad scales.

Panarchy and management of lake ecosystems

A key challenge of the Anthropocene is to confront the dynamic complexity of systems of people and nature to guide robust interventions and adaptations across spatiotemporal scales. Panarchy, a concept rooted in resilience theory, accounts for this complexity, having at its core multiscale organization, interconnectedness of scales, and dynamic system structure at each scale. Despite the increasing use of panarchy in sustainability research, quantitative tests of its premises are scarce, particularly as they pertain to management consequences in ecosystems. In this study we compared the physicochemical environment of managed (limed) and minimally disturbed reference lakes and used time series modeling and correlation analyses to test the premises of panarchy theory: (1) that both lake types show dynamic structure at multiple temporal scales, (2) that this structure differs between lake types due to liming interacting with the natural disturbance regime of lakes, and (3) that liming manifests across temporal scales due to cross-scale connectivity. Hypotheses 1 and 3 were verified whereas support for hypothesis 2 was ambiguous. The literature suggests that liming is a "command-and-control" management form that fails to foster self-organization manifested in lakes returning to pre-liming conditions once management is ceased. In this context, our results suggest that redundance of liming footprints across scales, a feature contributing to resilience, in the physicochemical environment alone may not be enough to create a self-organizing limed lake regime. Further research studying the broader biophysical lake environment, including ecological communities of pelagic and benthic habitats, will contribute to a better understanding of managed lake panarchies. Such insight may further our knowledge of ecosystem management in general and of limed lakes in particular.

Knowledge Management for Sustainable Development in the Era of Continuously Accelerating Technological Revolutions: A Framework and Models

This conceptual, interdisciplinary paper will start by introducing the commencement of a new era in which human society faces continuously accelerating technological revolutions, named the Post Accelerating Data and Knowledge Online Society, or ‘Padkos’ (“food for the journey; prog; provisions for journey”—in Afrikaans) for short. In this context, a conceptual model of sustainable development with a focus on knowledge management and sharing will be proposed. The construct of knowledge management will be unpacked into a new three-layer model with a focus on the knowledge-human and data-machine spheres. Then, each sphere will be discussed with concentration on the learning and decision- making processes, the digital supporting systems and the human actors’ aspects. Moreover, the recombination of new knowledge development and contemporary knowledge management into one amalgamated construct will be proposed. The holistic conceptual model of knowledge management for sustainable development is comprised by time, cybersecurity and two alternative humanistic paradigms (Homo Technologicus and Homo Sustainabiliticus). Two additional particular models are discussed in depth. First, a recently proposed model of quantum organizational decision-making is elaborated. Next, a boundary management and learning process is deliberated. The paper ends with a number of propositions and several implications for the future based on the deliberations in the paper and the models discussed and with conclusions.

Woody Plant Encroachment and the Sustainability of Priority Conservation Areas

Woody encroachment is a global driver of grassland loss and management to counteract encroachment represents one of the most expensive conservation practices implemented in grasslands. Yet, outcomes of these practices are often unknown at large scales and this constrains practitioner’s ability to advance conservation. Here, we use new monitoring data to evaluate outcomes of grassland conservation on woody encroachment for Nebraska’s State Wildlife Action Plan, a statewide effort that targets management in Biologically Unique Landscapes (BULs) to conserve the state’s natural communities. We tracked woody cover trajectories for BULs and compared BUL trajectories with those in non-priority landscapes (non-BULs) to evaluate statewide and BUL-scale conservation outcomes more than a decade after BUL establishment. Statewide, woody cover increased by 256,653 ha (2.3%) from 2000–2017. Most BULs (71%) experienced unsustainable trends of grassland loss to woody encroachment; however, management appeared to significantly reduce BUL encroachment rates compared to non-BULs. Most BULs with early signs of encroachment lacked control strategies, while only one BUL with moderate levels of encroachment (Loess Canyons) showed evidence of a management-driven stabilization of encroachment. These results identify strategic opportunities for proactive management in grassland conservation and demonstrate how new monitoring technology can support large-scale adaptive management pursuits.