Nonlinear biomarker interactions in conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease

Effectiveness of brain magnetic resonance imaging in the early diagnosis and characterization of dementias; a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a frequently used test in the diagnosis of dementia. The objective was to evaluate its effectiveness for the early diagnosis of dementia in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Original studies were selected from systematic reviews between 2011 and 2021, according to PRISMA 2020 criteria. QUADAS-2 and GRADE tools were used, and a meta-analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Final selection of 23 articles. Patient selection and index test had a high probability of bias. The certainty of the evidence was very low. In the hippocampus, sensitivity was 0.62 (95%CI 0.48-0.79) and specificity 0.70 (95%CI 0.55-0.80). In the temporal lobe, sensitivity was 0.65 (range 0.45) and specificity 0.69 (range 0.32).

CONCLUSIONS

There is insufficient evidence to recommend routine brain MRI for the early diagnosis of dementia in patients with MCI.

Diagnostic performance of molecular imaging methods in predicting the progression from mild cognitive impairment to dementia: an updated systematic review

PURPOSE

Epidemiological and logistical reasons are slowing the clinical validation of the molecular imaging biomarkers in the initial stages of neurocognitive disorders. We provide an updated systematic review of the recent advances (2017-2022), highlighting methodological shortcomings.

METHODS

Studies reporting the diagnostic accuracy values of the molecular imaging techniques (i.e., amyloid-, tau-, [18F]FDG-PETs, DaT-SPECT, and cardiac [123I]-MIBG scintigraphy) in predicting progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia were selected according to the Preferred Reporting Items for a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) method and evaluated with the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. Main eligibility criteria were as follows: (1) ≥ 50 subjects with MCI, (2) follow-up ≥ 3 years, (3) gold standard: progression to dementia or diagnosis on pathology, and (4) measures of prospective accuracy.

RESULTS

Sensitivity (SE) and specificity (SP) in predicting progression to dementia, mainly to Alzheimer's dementia were 43-100% and 63-94% for [18F]FDG-PET and 64-94% and 48-93% for amyloid-PET. Longitudinal studies were lacking for less common disorders (Dementia with Lewy bodies-DLB and Frontotemporal lobe degeneration-FTLD) and for tau-PET, DaT-SPECT, and [123I]-MIBG scintigraphy. Therefore, the accuracy values from cross-sectional studies in a smaller sample of subjects (n > 20, also including mild dementia stage) were chosen as surrogate outcomes. DaT-SPECT showed 47-100% SE and 71-100% SP in differentiating Lewy body disease (LBD) from non-LBD conditions; tau-PET: 88% SE and 100% SP in differentiating DLB from Posterior Cortical Atrophy. [123I]-MIBG scintigraphy differentiated LBD from non-LBD conditions with 47-100% SE and 71-100% SP.

CONCLUSION

Molecular imaging has a moderate-to-good accuracy in predicting the progression of MCI to Alzheimer's dementia. Longitudinal studies are sparse in non-AD conditions, requiring additional efforts in these settings.

Optimising brain age estimation through transfer learning: A suite of pre-trained foundation models for improved performance and generalisability in a clinical setting

Estimated age from brain MRI data has emerged as a promising biomarker of neurological health. However, the absence of large, diverse, and clinically representative training datasets, along with the complexity of managing heterogeneous MRI data, presents significant barriers to the development of accurate and generalisable models appropriate for clinical use. Here, we present a deep learning framework trained on routine clinical data (N up to 18,890, age range 18-96 years). We trained five separate models for accurate brain age prediction (all with mean absolute error ≤4.0 years, R2  ≥ .86) across five different MRI sequences (T2 -weighted, T2 -FLAIR, T1 -weighted, diffusion-weighted, and gradient-recalled echo T2 *-weighted). Our trained models offer dual functionality. First, they have the potential to be directly employed on clinical data. Second, they can be used as foundation models for further refinement to accommodate a range of other MRI sequences (and therefore a range of clinical scenarios which employ such sequences). This adaptation process, enabled by transfer learning, proved effective in our study across a range of MRI sequences and scan orientations, including those which differed considerably from the original training datasets. Crucially, our findings suggest that this approach remains viable even with limited data availability (as low as N = 25 for fine-tuning), thus broadening the application of brain age estimation to more diverse clinical contexts and patient populations. By making these models publicly available, we aim to provide the scientific community with a versatile toolkit, promoting further research in brain age prediction and related areas.

Combining aperiodic 1/f slopes and brain simulation: An EEG/MEG proxy marker of excitation/inhibition imbalance in Alzheimer's disease

INTRODUCTION

Accumulation and interaction of amyloid-beta (Aβ) and tau proteins during progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD) are shown to tilt neuronal circuits away from balanced excitation/inhibition (E/I). Current available techniques for noninvasive interrogation of E/I in the intact human brain, for example, magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS), are highly restrictive (i.e., limited spatial extent), have low temporal and spatial resolution and suffer from the limited ability to distinguish accurately between different neurotransmitters complicating its interpretation. As such, these methods alone offer an incomplete explanation of E/I. Recently, the aperiodic component of neural power spectrum, often referred to in the literature as the '1/f slope', has been described as a promising and scalable biomarker that can track disruptions in E/I potentially underlying a spectrum of clinical conditions, such as autism, schizophrenia, or epilepsy, as well as developmental E/I changes as seen in aging.

METHODS

Using 1/f slopes from resting-state spectral data and computational modeling, we developed a new method for inferring E/I alterations in AD.

RESULTS

We tested our method on recent freely and publicly available electroencephalography (EEG) and magnetoencephalography (MEG) datasets of patients with AD or prodromal disease and demonstrated the method's potential for uncovering regional patterns of abnormal excitatory and inhibitory parameters.

DISCUSSION

Our results provide a general framework for investigating circuit-level disorders in AD and developing therapeutic interventions that aim to restore the balance between excitation and inhibition.

Revealing Individual Neuroanatomical Heterogeneity in Alzheimer Disease Using Neuroanatomical Normative Modeling

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Alzheimer disease (AD) is highly heterogeneous, with marked individual differences in clinical presentation and neurobiology. To explore this, we used neuroanatomical normative modeling to index regional patterns of variability in cortical thickness. We aimed to characterize individual differences and outliers in cortical thickness in patients with AD, people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and controls. Furthermore, we assessed the relationships between cortical thickness heterogeneity and cognitive function, β-amyloid, phosphorylated-tau, and ApoE genotype. Finally, we examined whether cortical thickness heterogeneity was predictive of conversion from MCI to AD.

METHODS

Cortical thickness measurements across 148 brain regions were obtained from T1-weighted MRI scans from 62 sites of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. AD was determined by clinical and neuropsychological examination with no comorbidities present. Participants with MCI had reported memory complaints, and controls were cognitively normal. A neuroanatomical normative model indexed cortical thickness distributions using a separate healthy reference data set (n = 33,072), which used hierarchical Bayesian regression to predict cortical thickness per region using age and sex, while adjusting for site noise. Z-scores per region were calculated, resulting in a Z-score brain map per participant. Regions with Z-scores <-1.96 were classified as outliers.

RESULTS

Patients with AD (n = 206) had a median of 12 outlier regions (out of a possible 148), with the highest proportion of outliers (47%) in the parahippocampal gyrus. For 62 regions, over 90% of these patients had cortical thicknesses within the normal range. Patients with AD had more outlier regions than people with MCI (n = 662) or controls (n = 159) (F(2, 1,022) = 95.39, p = 2.0 × 10-16). They were also more dissimilar to each other than people with MCI or controls (F(2, 1,024) = 209.42, p = 2.2 × 10-16). A greater number of outlier regions were associated with worse cognitive function, CSF protein concentrations, and an increased risk of converting from MCI to AD within 3 years (hazard ratio 1.028, 95% CI 1.016-1.039, p = 1.8 × 10-16).

DISCUSSION

Individualized normative maps of cortical thickness highlight the heterogeneous effect of AD on the brain. Regional outlier estimates have the potential to be a marker of disease and could be used to track an individual's disease progression or treatment response in clinical trials.

Joint Modeling of Clinical and Biomarker Data in Acute Kidney Injury Defines Unique Subphenotypes with Differing Outcomes

BACKGROUND

AKI is a heterogeneous syndrome. Current subphenotyping approaches have only used limited laboratory data to understand a much more complex condition.

METHODS

We focused on patients with AKI from the Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae in AKI (ASSESS-AKI). We used hierarchical clustering with Ward linkage on biomarkers of inflammation, injury, and repair/health. We then evaluated clinical differences between subphenotypes and examined their associations with cardiorenal events and death using Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

We included 748 patients with AKI: 543 (73%) of them had AKI stage 1, 112 (15%) had AKI stage 2, and 93 (12%) had AKI stage 3. The mean age (±SD) was 64 (13) years; 508 (68%) were men; and the median follow-up was 4.7 (Q1: 2.9, Q3: 5.7) years. Patients with AKI subphenotype 1 ( N =181) had the highest kidney injury molecule (KIM-1) and troponin T levels. Subphenotype 2 ( N =250) had the highest levels of uromodulin. AKI subphenotype 3 ( N =159) comprised patients with markedly high pro-brain natriuretic peptide and plasma tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 and -2 and low concentrations of KIM-1 and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin. Finally, patients with subphenotype 4 ( N =158) predominantly had sepsis-AKI and the highest levels of vascular/kidney inflammation (YKL-40, MCP-1) and injury (neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, KIM-1). AKI subphenotypes 3 and 4 were independently associated with a higher risk of death compared with subphenotype 2 and had adjusted hazard ratios of 2.9 (95% confidence interval, 1.8 to 4.6) and 1.6 (95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 2.6, P = 0.04), respectively. Subphenotype 3 was also independently associated with a three-fold risk of CKD and cardiovascular events.

CONCLUSIONS

We discovered four AKI subphenotypes with differing clinical features and biomarker profiles that are associated with longitudinal clinical outcomes.

Biological brain age prediction using machine learning on structural neuroimaging data: Multi-cohort validation against biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease and neurodegeneration stratified by sex

Brain-age can be inferred from structural neuroimaging and compared to chronological age (brain-age delta) as a marker of biological brain aging. Accelerated aging has been found in neurodegenerative disorders like Alzheimer's disease (AD), but its validation against markers of neurodegeneration and AD is lacking. Here, imaging-derived measures from the UK Biobank dataset (N=22,661) were used to predict brain-age in 2,314 cognitively unimpaired (CU) individuals at higher risk of AD and mild cognitive impaired (MCI) patients from four independent cohorts with available biomarker data: ALFA+, ADNI, EPAD, and OASIS. Brain-age delta was associated with abnormal amyloid-β, more advanced stages (AT) of AD pathology and APOE-ε4 status. Brain-age delta was positively associated with plasma neurofilament light, a marker of neurodegeneration, and sex differences in the brain effects of this marker were found. These results validate brain-age delta as a non-invasive marker of biological brain aging in non-demented individuals with abnormal levels of biomarkers of AD and axonal injury.

Fast three-dimensional image generation for healthy brain aging using diffeomorphic registration

Predicting brain aging can help in the early detection and prognosis of neurodegenerative diseases. Longitudinal cohorts of healthy subjects scanned through magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) have been essential to understand the structural brain changes due to aging. However, these cohorts suffer from missing data due to logistic issues in the recruitment of subjects. This paper proposes a methodology for filling up missing data in longitudinal cohorts with anatomically plausible images that capture the subject-specific aging process. The proposed methodology is developed within the framework of diffeomorphic registration. First, two novel modules are introduced within Synthmorph, a fast, state-of-the-art deep learning-based diffeomorphic registration method, to simulate the aging process between the first and last available MRI scan for each subject in three-dimensional (3D). The use of image registration also makes the generated images plausible by construction. Second, we used six image similarity measurements to rearrange the generated images to the specific age range. Finally, we estimated the age of every generated image by using the assumption of linear brain decay in healthy subjects. The methodology was evaluated on 2662 T1-weighted MRI scans from 796 healthy participants from 3 different longitudinal cohorts: Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, Open Access Series of Imaging Studies-3, and Group of Neuropsychological Studies of the Canary Islands (GENIC). In total, we generated 7548 images to simulate the access of a scan per subject every 6 months in these cohorts. We evaluated the quality of the synthetic images using six quantitative measurements and a qualitative assessment by an experienced neuroradiologist with state-of-the-art results. The assumption of linear brain decay was accurate in these cohorts (R2  ∈ [.924, .940]). The experimental results show that the proposed methodology can produce anatomically plausible aging predictions that can be used to enhance longitudinal datasets. Compared to deep learning-based generative methods, diffeomorphic registration is more likely to preserve the anatomy of the different structures of the brain, which makes it more appropriate for its use in clinical applications. The proposed methodology is able to efficiently simulate anatomically plausible 3D MRI scans of brain aging of healthy subjects from two images scanned at two different time points.

Altered functional hubs and connectivity in type 2 diabetes mellitus with and without mild cognitive impairment

Cognitive impairment in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is associated with functional and structural abnormalities of brain networks, especially the damage to hub nodes in networks. This study explored the abnormal hub nodes of brain functional networks in patients with T2DM under different cognitive states. Sixty-five patients with T2DM and 34 healthy controls (HCs) underwent neuropsychological assessment. Then, degree centrality (DC) analysis and seed-based functional connectivity (FC) analysis were performed to identify the abnormal hub nodes and the FC patterns of these hubs in T2DM patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) (DMCI group, N = 31) and without MCI (DMCN group, N = 34). Correlation analyzes examined the relationship between abnormal DC and FC and clinical/cognitive variables. Compared with HCs, both T2DM groups showed decreased DC values in the visual cortex, and the T2DM patients with MCI (DMCI) showed more extensive alterations in the right parahippocampal gyrus (PHG), bilateral posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), and left superior frontal gyrus (SFG) regions than T2DM patients with normal cognitive function. Seed-based FC analysis of PHG and PCC nodes showed that functional disconnection mainly occurred in visual and memory connectivity in patients with DMCI. Multiple abnormal DC values correlated with neuropsychological tests in patients with T2DM. In conclusion, this study found that the DMCI group displayed more extensive alterations in hub nodes and FC in vision and memory-related brain regions, suggesting that visual-related regions dysfunctions and disconnection may be involved in the neuropathology of visuospatial function impairment in patients with DMCI.

Life course, genetic, and neuropathological associations with brain age in the 1946 British Birth Cohort: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

A neuroimaging-based biomarker termed the brain age is thought to reflect variability in the brain's ageing process and predict longevity. Using Insight 46, a unique narrow-age birth cohort, we aimed to examine potential drivers and correlates of brain age.

METHODS

Participants, born in a single week in 1946 in mainland Britain, have had 24 prospective waves of data collection to date, including MRI and amyloid PET imaging at approximately 70 years old. Using MRI data from a previously defined selection of this cohort, we derived brain-predicted age from an established machine-learning model (trained on 2001 healthy adults aged 18-90 years); subtracting this from chronological age (at time of assessment) gave the brain-predicted age difference (brain-PAD). We tested associations with data from early life, midlife, and late life, as well as rates of MRI-derived brain atrophy.

FINDINGS

Between May 28, 2015, and Jan 10, 2018, 502 individuals were assessed as part of Insight 46. We included 456 participants (225 female), with a mean chronological age of 70·7 years (SD 0·7; range 69·2 to 71·9). The mean brain-predicted age was 67·9 years (8·2, 46·3 to 94·3). Female sex was associated with a 5·4-year (95% CI 4·1 to 6·8) younger brain-PAD than male sex. An increase in brain-PAD was associated with increased cardiovascular risk at age 36 years (β=2·3 [95% CI 1·5 to 3·0]) and 69 years (β=2·6 [1·9 to 3·3]); increased cerebrovascular disease burden (1·9 [1·3 to 2·6]); lower cognitive performance (-1·3 [-2·4 to -0·2]); and increased serum neurofilament light concentration (1·2 [0·6 to 1·9]). Higher brain-PAD was associated with future hippocampal atrophy over the subsequent 2 years (0·003 mL/year [0·000 to 0·006] per 5-year increment in brain-PAD). Early-life factors did not relate to brain-PAD. Combining 12 metrics in a hierarchical partitioning model explained 33% of the variance in brain-PAD.

INTERPRETATION

Brain-PAD was associated with cardiovascular risk, and imaging and biochemical markers of neurodegeneration. These findings support brain-PAD as an integrative summary metric of brain health, reflecting multiple contributions to pathological brain ageing, and which might have prognostic utility.

FUNDING

Alzheimer's Research UK, Medical Research Council Dementia Platforms UK, Selfridges Group Foundation, Wolfson Foundation, Wellcome Trust, Brain Research UK, Alzheimer's Association.

Brain-age is associated with progression to dementia in memory clinic patients

BACKGROUND

Biomarkers for the early detection of dementia risk hold promise for better disease monitoring and targeted interventions. However, most biomarker studies, particularly in neuroimaging, have analysed artificially 'clean' research groups, free from comorbidities, erroneous referrals, contraindications and from a narrow sociodemographic pool. Such biases mean that neuroimaging samples are often unrepresentative of the target population for dementia risk (e.g., people referred to a memory clinic), limiting the generalisation of these studies to real-world clinical settings. To facilitate better translation from research to the clinic, datasets that are more representative of dementia patient groups are warranted.

METHODS

We analysed T1-weighted MRI scans from a real-world setting of patients referred to UK memory clinic services (n = 1140; 60.2 % female and mean [SD] age of 70.0[10.8] years) to derive 'brain-age'. Brain-age is an index of age-related brain health based on quantitative analysis of structural neuroimaging, largely reflecting brain atrophy. Brain-predicted age difference (brain-PAD) was calculated as brain-age minus chronological age. We determined which patients went on to develop dementia between three months and 7.8 years after neuroimaging assessment (n = 476) using linkage to electronic health records.

RESULTS

Survival analysis, using Cox regression, indicated a 3 % increased risk of dementia per brain-PAD year (hazard ratio [95 % CI] = 1.03 [1.02,1.04], p < 0.0001), adjusted for baseline age, age2, sex, Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) score and normalised brain volume. In sensitivity analyses, brain-PAD remained significant when time-to-dementia was at least 3 years (hazard ratio [95 % CI] = 1.06 [1.02, 1.09], p = 0.0006), or when baseline MMSE score ≥ 27 (hazard ratio [95 % CI] = 1.03 [1.01, 1.05], p = 0.0006).

CONCLUSIONS

Memory clinic patients with older-appearing brains are more likely to receive a subsequent dementia diagnosis. Potentially, brain-age could aid decision-making during initial memory clinic assessment to improve early detection of dementia. Even when neuroimaging assessment was more than 3 years prior to diagnosis and when cognitive functioning was not clearly impaired, brain-age still proved informative. These real-world results support the use of quantitative neuroimaging biomarkers like brain-age in memory clinics.

A deep learning MRI approach outperforms other biomarkers of prodromal Alzheimer's disease

BACKGROUND

The three core pathologies of Alzheimer's disease (AD) are amyloid pathology, tau pathology, and neurodegeneration. Biomarkers exist for each. Neurodegeneration is often detected by neuroimaging, and we hypothesized that a voxel-based deep learning approach using structural MRI might outperform other neuroimaging methods.

METHODS

First, we implement an MRI-based deep learning model, trained with a data augmentation strategy, which classifies Alzheimer's dementia and generates class activation maps. Next, we tested the model in prodromal AD and compared its performance to other biomarkers of amyloid pathology, tau pathology, and neuroimaging biomarkers of neurodegeneration.

RESULTS

The model distinguished between controls and AD with high accuracy (AUROC = 0.973) with class activation maps that localized to the hippocampal formation. As hypothesized, the model also outperformed other neuroimaging biomarkers of neurodegeneration in prodromal AD (AUROC = 0.788) but also outperformed biomarkers of amyloid (CSF Aβ = 0.702) or tau pathology (CSF tau = 0.682), and the findings are interpreted in the context of AD's known anatomical biology.

CONCLUSIONS

The advantages of using deep learning to extract biomarker information from conventional MRIs extend practically, potentially reducing patient burden, risk, and cost.

Model-based stratification of progression along the Alzheimer disease continuum highlights the centrality of biomarker synergies

BACKGROUND

The progression rates of Alzheimer's disease (AD) are variable and dynamic, yet the mechanisms that contribute to heterogeneity in progression rates remain ill-understood. Particularly, the role of synergies in pathological processes reflected by biomarkers for amyloid-beta ('A'), tau ('T'), and neurodegeneration ('N') in progression along the AD continuum is not fully understood.

METHODS

Here, we used a combination of model and data-driven approaches to address this question. Working with a large dataset (N = 321 across the training and testing cohorts), we first applied unsupervised clustering on longitudinal cognitive assessments to divide individuals on the AD continuum into those showing fast vs. moderate decline. Next, we developed a deep learning model that differentiated fast vs. moderate decline using baseline AT(N) biomarkers.

RESULTS

Training the model with AT(N) biomarker combination revealed more prognostic utility than any individual biomarkers alone. We additionally found little overlap between the model-driven progression phenotypes and established atrophy-based AD subtypes. Our model showed that the combination of all AT(N) biomarkers had the most prognostic utility in predicting progression along the AD continuum. A comprehensive AT(N) model showed better predictive performance than biomarker pairs (A(N) and T(N)) and individual biomarkers (A, T, or N).

CONCLUSIONS

This study combined data and model-driven methods to uncover the role of AT(N) biomarker synergies in the progression of cognitive decline along the AD continuum. The results suggest a synergistic relationship between AT(N) biomarkers in determining this progression, extending previous evidence of A-T synergistic mechanisms.

The effect of Alzheimer's disease risk factors on brain aging in normal Chineses: Cognitive aging and cognitive reserve

Aging has been recognized as a major driving force of the Alzheimer's disease's (AD) progression, however, the relationship between brain aging and AD is still unclear. There is also a lack of studies investigating the influence of AD risk factors on brain aging in cognitively normal people. Here, the "Brain Age Gap Estimation" (BrainAGE) framework was applied to investigate the effects of AD risk factors on individual brain aging. Across a total of 165 cognitively normal elderly subjects, although no significant difference was observed in the BrainAGE scores among the three groups, AD risk dose (i.e., the number of AD risk factors) is tend to associated with an increased BrainAGE scores (high-risk > middle risk > low risk). Female exhibited more advanced brain aging (P = 0.004), and higher education years were associated with preserved brain aging (P < 0.001). APOE-ɛ4 (P = 0.846) and family history (FH) of dementia (P = 0.209) did not increase BrainAGE scores. When comparing 52 aMCI patients with 38 cognitively normal controls from ADNI dataset, aMCI patients showed significantly increased BrainAGE scores. BrainAGE scores were negatively correlated with CSF Aβ42 levels in the aMCI group (r = -0.275, P = 0.048). With an accuracy of 68.9%, BrainAGE outperformed APOE-ɛ4 and hippocampus gray matter volume (GMV) in predicting aMCI. In conclusion, AD is independently associated with structural changes in the brain that reflect advanced aging. Potentially, BrainAGE combined with APOE-ɛ4 and hippocampus GMV could be used as a pre-screening tool in early-stage AD.

Local Brain-Age: A U-Net Model

We propose a new framework for estimating neuroimaging-derived "brain-age" at a local level within the brain, using deep learning. The local approach, contrary to existing global methods, provides spatial information on anatomical patterns of brain ageing. We trained a U-Net model using brain MRI scans from n = 3,463 healthy people (aged 18-90 years) to produce individualised 3D maps of brain-predicted age. When testing on n = 692 healthy people, we found a median (across participant) mean absolute error (within participant) of 9.5 years. Performance was more accurate (MAE around 7 years) in the prefrontal cortex and periventricular areas. We also introduce a new voxelwise method to reduce the age-bias when predicting local brain-age "gaps." To validate local brain-age predictions, we tested the model in people with mild cognitive impairment or dementia using data from OASIS3 (n = 267). Different local brain-age patterns were evident between healthy controls and people with mild cognitive impairment or dementia, particularly in subcortical regions such as the accumbens, putamen, pallidum, hippocampus, and amygdala. Comparing groups based on mean local brain-age over regions-of-interest resulted in large effects sizes, with Cohen's d values >1.5, for example when comparing people with stable and progressive mild cognitive impairment. Our local brain-age framework has the potential to provide spatial information leading to a more mechanistic understanding of individual differences in patterns of brain ageing in health and disease.

Early MCI-to-AD Conversion Prediction Using Future Value Forecasting of Multimodal Features

In Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression, it is imperative to identify the subjects with mild cognitive impairment before clinical symptoms of AD appear. This work proposes a technique for decision support in identifying subjects who will show transition from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the future. We used robust predictors from multivariate MRI-derived biomarkers and neuropsychological measures and tracked their longitudinal trajectories to predict signs of AD in the MCI population. Assuming piecewise linear progression of the disease, we designed a novel weighted gradient offset-based technique to forecast the future marker value using readings from at least two previous follow-up visits. Later, the complete predictor trajectories are used as features for a standard support vector machine classifier to identify MCI-to-AD progressors amongst the MCI patients enrolled in the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative (ADNI) cohort. We explored the performance of both unimodal and multimodal models in a 5-fold cross-validation setup. The proposed technique resulted in a high classification AUC of 91.2% and 95.7% for 6-month- and 1-year-ahead AD prediction, respectively, using multimodal markers. In the end, we discuss the efficacy of MRI markers as compared to NM for MCI-to-AD conversion prediction.

Artificial Intelligence for Alzheimer's Disease: Promise or Challenge?

Decades of experimental and clinical research have contributed to unraveling many mechanisms in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD), but the puzzle is still incomplete. Although we can suppose that there is no complete set of puzzle pieces, the recent growth of open data-sharing initiatives collecting lifestyle, clinical, and biological data from AD patients has provided a potentially unlimited amount of information about the disease, far exceeding the human ability to make sense of it. Moreover, integrating Big Data from multi-omics studies provides the potential to explore the pathophysiological mechanisms of the entire biological continuum of AD. In this context, Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers a wide variety of methods to analyze large and complex data in order to improve knowledge in the AD field. In this review, we focus on recent findings and future challenges for AI in AD research. In particular, we discuss the use of Computer-Aided Diagnosis tools for AD diagnosis and the use of AI to potentially support clinical practices for the prediction of individual risk of AD conversion as well as patient stratification in order to finally develop effective and personalized therapies.

Better Identification of Cognitive Decline With Interleukin-2 Than With Amyloid and Tau Protein Biomarkers in Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment

The rate of cognitive decline among patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) varies, and it is thus crucial to accurately predict the probability of cognitive deterioration in patients with MCI. We compared the potential of cytokines with amyloid beta (Aβ) and tau biomarkers for predicting cognitive decline in patients with aMCI or Alzheimer’s disease (AD). All participants (controls, aMCI, and AD patients) underwent plasma biomarker examinations for Aβ_1–40, Aβ_1–42, total tau (t-tau), tau phosphorylated at threonine 181 [p-Tau181]), and 29 cytokines and baseline cognitive tests, including Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). The correlation between biomarker levels and annual MMSE change during the follow-up was examined. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to determine whether the statistically significant plasma biomarkers could identify cognitive decline. Higher baseline levels of IL-2, sCD40L, IL-8, and VEGF were associated with a lower annual cognitive decline in the aMCI group, and higher baseline levels of Aβ_1–40, IFNγ, IL-5, IL-17A, IL-25, and FGF were associated with a rapid annual cognitive decline in the AD group. IL-2 had a high discriminatory capacity for identifying cognitive decline, with an area under curve (AUC) of 85.7% in the aMCI group, and the AUC was slightly increased when combining IL-2 with Aβ or tau biomarkers. However, none of the biomarkers had a satisfactory discriminatory capacity in the AD group. IL-2 may have a better discriminatory capacity for identifying cognitive decline than Aβ and tau biomarkers in patients with aMCI.

Predicting Alzheimer's disease progression using deep recurrent neural networks

Early identification of individuals at risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia is important for developing disease-modifying therapies. In this study, given multimodal AD markers and clinical diagnosis of an individual from one or more timepoints, we seek to predict the clinical diagnosis, cognition and ventricular volume of the individual for every month (indefinitely) into the future. We proposed and applied a minimal recurrent neural network (minimalRNN) model to data from The Alzheimer’s Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution (TADPOLE) challenge, comprising longitudinal data of 1677 participants (Marinescu et al., 2018) from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). We compared the performance of the minimalRNN model and four baseline algorithms up to 6 years into the future. Most previous work on predicting AD progression ignore the issue of missing data, which is a prevalent issue in longitudinal data. Here, we explored three different strategies to handle missing data. Two of the strategies treated the missing data as a “preprocessing” issue, by imputing the missing data using the previous timepoint (“forward filling”) or linear interpolation (“linear filling). The third strategy utilized the minimalRNN model itself to fill in the missing data both during training and testing (“model filling”). Our analyses suggest that the minimalRNN with “model filling” compared favorably with baseline algorithms, including support vector machine/regression, linear state space (LSS) model, and long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Importantly, although the training procedure utilized longitudinal data, we found that the trained minimalRNN model exhibited similar performance, when using only 1 input timepoint or 4 input timepoints, suggesting that our approach might work well with just cross-sectional data. An earlier version of our approach was ranked 5th (out of 53 entries) in the TADPOLE challenge in 2019. The current approach is ranked 2nd out of 63 entries as of June 3rd, 2020.