Lactate Improves Prediction of Short-Term Mortality in Critically Ill Patients With Cirrhosis: A Multinational Study

Highly catalytic Prussian blue analogues and their application on the three-dimensional origami paper-based sweat sensors

Prussian blue analogues (PBAs) are promising materials due to their rich active sites and straightforward synthesis. However, their limited conductivity and electron transfer inefficiency hinder practical applications. This study utilizes a simple one-pot synthesis approach to produce a tungsten-disulfide (WS2) and iron-cobalt Prussian blue analogue composite (WS2-PBA), enhancing conductivity and electron transfer rate performance. Through the inclusion of sodium citrate into the solution, the S-edge site concentration of WS2 increases. This augmentation introduces additional active sites and defects into the catalyst, enhancing its catalytic activity. The effectiveness of the WS2-PBA 3D-Origami paper device for lactate detection in sweat is also evaluated for biomedical applications. The device demonstrated a robust relationship between the lactate concentration and current intensity (R2 = 0.997), with a detection limit of 1.83 mM. Additionally, this platform has successfully detected lactate in clinical sweat, correlating with the high-performance liquid chromatography test results, suggesting promising prospects for clinical diagnosis. In the future, the excellent catalytic and Rct performance of the WS2-PBA will enable its use in biomedical applications.

Review article: Evaluation and care of the critically ill patient with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The increase in prevalence of liver disease globally will lead to a substantial incremental burden on intensive care requirements. While liver transplantation offers a potential life-saving intervention, not all patients are eligible due to limitations such as organ availability, resource constraints, ongoing sepsis or multiple organ failures. Consequently, the focus of critical care of patients with advanced and decompensated cirrhosis turns to liver-centric intensive care protocols, to mitigate the high mortality in such patients.

AIM

Provide an updated and comprehensive understanding of cirrhosis management in critical care, and which includes emergency care, secondary organ failure management (mechanical ventilation, renal replacement therapy, haemodynamic support and intensive care nutrition), use of innovative liver support systems, infection control, liver transplantation and palliative and end-of life care.

METHODS

We conducted a structured bibliographic search on PubMed, sourcing articles published up to 31 March 2024, to cover topics addressed. We considered data from observational studies, recommendations of society guidelines, systematic reviews, and meta-analyses, randomised controlled trials, and incorporated our clinical expertise in liver critical care.

RESULTS

Critical care management of the patient with cirrhosis has evolved over time while mortality remains high despite aggressive management with liver transplantation serving as a crucial but not universally available resource.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of organ support therapies, intensive care protocols, nutrition, palliative care and end-of-life discussions and decisions are an integral part of critical care of the patient with cirrhosis. A multi-disciplinary approach towards critical care management is likely to yield better outcomes.

Prognostic value of procalcitonin in patients with cirrhosis hospitalized for acute infection

BACKGROUND

In patients with cirrhosis, infections significantly increase the risk of short and long-term mortality. During infection, the levels of procalcitonin increase, but it has not yet been clarified its prognostic value in subjects with cirrhosis. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic role of procalcitonin in patients with liver cirrhosis hospitalized for acute infection, and to compare it with other markers of infection.

PATIENTS

We included 279 patients hospitalized because of infection, 133 with liver cirrhosis. At admission the levels of the main biochemical parameters of infection, i.e. leukocytes, procalcitonin, C reactive protein and lactate, were considered.

RESULTS

The duration of hospitalization and antibiotic therapy were longer in patients with cirrhosis, while no difference was observed for mortality. In both groups, a correlation with the duration of hospitalization and antibiotic therapy was observed for high levels of procalcitonin. In the cirrhotic population, in particular, higher procalcitonin values were associated with an increase in the length of hospitalization and antibiotic therapy, suggesting an even greater predictive value for those patients. High levels of leucocytes and lactate were positively associated with the duration of hospitalization, but not with the duration of antibiotic therapy. For mortality, the strongest correlation was found for high serum lactate levels, regardless of the presence of cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

In patients with cirrhosis and acute infection, the value of procalcitonin at admission is a good prognostic indicator for the course of hospitalization, and could be useful for guiding the management and treatment of hospitalized patients.

A novel prognostic model to predict mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure in intensive care unit

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) implies high short-term mortality rates and usually requires intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Proper prognosis for these patients is crucial for early referral for liver transplantation. The superiority of CLIF-C ACLF score in Asian patients with ACLF admitted to an ICU remains inconclusive when compared to other scoring systems. The purpose of the study is (i) to compare the predictive performance of original MELD, MELD-Lactate, CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C ACLF-Lactate, and APACHE-II scores for short-term mortality assessment. (ii) to build and validate a novel scoring system and to compare its predictive performance to that of the original five scores. Two hundred sixty-five consecutive cirrhotic patients with ACLF who were admitted to our ICU were enrolled. The prognostic values for mortality were assessed by ROC analysis. A novel model was developed and internally validated using fivefold cross-validation. Alcohol abuse was identified as the primary etiology of cirrhosis. The AUROC of the five prognostic scores were not significantly superior to each other in predicting 1-month and 3-month mortality. The newly developed prognostic model, incorporating age, alveolar-arterial gradient (A-a gradient), BUN, total bilirubin level, INR, and HE grades, exhibited significantly improved performance in predicting 1-month and 3-month mortality with AUROC of 0.863 and 0.829, respectively, as compared to the original five prognostic scores. The novel ACLF model seems to be superior to the original five scores in predicting short-term mortality in ACLF patients admitted to an ICU. Further rigorous validation is required.

Acute decompensation of cirrhosis versus acute-on-chronic liver failure: What are the clinical implications?

It is essential to identify the subgroup of patients who experience poorer outcomes in order to adapt clinical management effectively. In the context of liver disease, the earlier the identification occurs, the greater the range of therapeutic options that can be offered to patients. In the past, patients with acute decompensation (AD) of chronic liver disease were treated as a homogeneous group, with emphasis on identifying those at the highest risk of death. In the last 15 years, a differentiation has emerged between acute-on-chronic liver failure syndrome (ACLF) and AD, primarily due to indications that the latter is linked to a less favorable short-term prognosis. Nevertheless, the definition of ACLF varies among the different knowledge societies, making it challenging to assess its true impact compared with AD. Therefore, the purpose of this review is to provide a detailed analysis emphasizing the critical importance of identifying ACLF in the field of advanced liver disease. We will discuss the differences between Eastern and Western approaches, particularly in relation to the occurrence of liver failure and disease onset. Common characteristics, such as the dynamic nature of the disease course, will be highlighted. Finally, we will focus on two key clinical implications arising from these considerations: the prevention of ACLF before its onset and the clinical management strategies once it develops, including liver transplantation and withdrawal of care.

Factors and a model to predict three-month mortality in patients with acute fatty liver of pregnancy from two medical centers

BACKGROUND

Acute fatty liver of pregnancy (AFLP) is an uncommon but potentially life-threatening complication. Lacking of prognostic factors and models renders prediction of outcomes difficult. This study aims to explore factors and develop a prognostic model to predict three-month mortality of AFLP.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 78 consecutive patients fulfilling both clinical and laboratory criteria and Swansea criteria for diagnosis of AFLP. Univariate and multivariate cox regression analyses were used to identify predictive factors of mortality. Predictive efficacy of prognostic index for AFLP (PI-AFLP) was compared with the other four liver disease models using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

AFLP-related three-month mortality of two medical centers was 14.10% (11/78). International normalised ratio (INR, hazard ratio [HR] = 3.446; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.324-8.970), total bilirubin (TBIL, HR = 1.005; 95% CI, 1.000-1.010), creatine (Scr, HR = 1.007; 95% CI, 1.001-1.013), low platelet (PLT, HR = 0.964; 95% CI, 0.931-0.997) at 72 h postpartum were confirmed as significant predictors of mortality. Artificial liver support (ALS, HR = 0.123; 95% CI, 0.012-1.254) was confirmed as an effective measure to improve severe patients' prognosis. Predictive accuracy of PI-AFLP was 0.874. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of liver disease models for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, integrated MELD (iMELD) and pregnancy-specific liver disease (PSLD) were 0.781, 0.774, 0.744 and 0.643, respectively.

CONCLUSION

TBIL, INR, Scr and PLT at 72 h postpartum are significant predictors of three-month mortality in AFLP patients. ALS is an effective measure to improve severe patients' prognosis. PI-AFLP calculated by TBIL, INR, Scr, PLT and ALS was a sensitive and specific model to predict mortality of AFLP.

Serum lactate and mean arterial pressure thresholds in patients with cirrhosis and septic shock

BACKGROUND

The Sepsis-3 guidelines have incorporated serum lactate levels of >2 mmol/L in septic shock definition to account for higher observed mortality. Further evidence is needed to support this threshold in cirrhosis, as well as target mean arterial pressure (MAP) during resuscitation.

METHODS

This observational cohort study investigated the association between initial serum lactate and resuscitation MAP levels on in-hospital mortality in patients with and without cirrhosis. Patients admitted to the intensive care unit for the treatment of septic shock between 2006 and 2021 in a quaternary academic center were included. Patients with cirrhosis documented on imaging and International Classification of Disease codes (n=595) were compared to patients without cirrhosis (n=575). The association of intensive care unit admission lactate levels and median 2-hour MAP with in-hospital mortality and the need for continuous renal replacement therapy was assessed. The association between median 24-hour MAP and in-hospital mortality was analyzed post hoc.

RESULTS

Within the cirrhosis group, admission lactate levels of 2-4 and >4 mmol/L were associated with increased in-hospital mortality compared to lactate <2 mmol/L [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.69, CI: 1.03-2.81, aOR: 4.02, CI: 2.53-6.52]. Median 24-hour MAP 60-65 and <60 mm Hg were also associated with increased in-hospital mortality compared with MAP >65 mm Hg (aOR: 2.84, CI: 1.64-4.92 and aOR: 7.34, CI: 3.17-18.76). In the noncirrhosis group, associations with in-hospital mortality were weaker for lactate 2-4 and >4 mmol/L (aOR: 1.32, CI: 0.77-2.27 and aOR: 2.25, CI: 1.40-3.67) and median 24-hour MAP 60-65 and <60 mm Hg (aOR: 1.70, CI: 0.65-4.14 and aOR: 4.41, CI: 0.79-29.38).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support utilizing lactate >2 mmol/L in the definition of septic shock, as well as a target MAP of >65 mm Hg during resuscitation in patients with cirrhosis.

Ascitic Fluid Lactate Level as a Predictor of Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients Having Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis (SBP)

Introduction Limited studies are available for predicting mortality in patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) based on ascitic fluid analysis. Recently, a proposition has been made regarding the role of ascitic fluid lactate as a better prognostic indicator of mortality in cirrhotic patients with SBP. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the utility of ascitic fluid lactate in predicting mortality in cirrhotic patients with SBP. Methods This was a prospective, observational study that was conducted in the Hepato-Gastroenterology Department of Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation (SIUT), Karachi from 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2022. All the patients having liver cirrhosis with ascites, aged between 18 and 65 years, and presenting with fever and/or abdominal pain were recruited in the study in the first six months (i.e., from 1 January 2022 to 30 June 2022) and were followed for six more months for the outcome. However, those patients on dialysis or those with hepatocellular carcinoma, any other malignancy as per a history of solid organ transplant, a history of HIV infection, or those underlying systemic sepsis or infections other than SBP were excluded from the study. The presence or absence of SBP was confirmed by doing the ascitic fluid analysis. Ascitic fluid lactate levels were also requested in each patient. Mortality was assessed at one, two, three, and six months, respectively. All the data were analyzed using SPSS version 23.0. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was obtained for ascitic fluid lactate for predicting mortality in SBP. At an optimal cutoff, the diagnostic accuracy of ascitic fluid lactate was obtained. Results The total number of cirrhotic patients included in the study was 123. The majority of the patients belong to Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP) class C (n = 88; 71%). Two third of the patients (65.8%; n = 81) had viral hepatitis i.e., hepatitis B, D, and/or C, as the cause of cirrhosis. Overall mortality was observed in 51(41.5%) patients. Ascitic fluid lactate was significantly raised in patients with SBP than in patients with non-SBP (p = 0.004). The AUROC of ascitic fluid lactate was highest at three months (AUROC = 0.88) followed by six months (AUROC = 0.84), two months (AUROC = 0.804), and one month (AUROC=0.773). At an optimal cut-off of more than or equal to 22.4 mg/dl, ascitic fluid lactate had a sensitivity of 84.9%, specificity of 85.7%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 97.3%, negative predictive value of 42.8% with diagnostic accuracy of 85% in predicting overall mortality in patients with SBP. On sub-analysis, the diagnostic accuracy of ascitic fluid lactate was highest at six months followed by at three, two, and one month, respectively. Conclusion Ascitic fluid lactate showed a good diagnostic utility in predicting the overall mortality in patients with SBP with the best diagnostic accuracy in predicting long-term (six months) mortality. However, further studies are required to validate our results.

Predictors of 30-day mortality in patients diagnosed with hepatic encephalopathy on admission to the emergency department

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to compare the laboratory findings and disease severity scores of patients diagnosed with hepatic encephalopathy (HE) in the emergency department (ED) to predict 30-day mortality.

METHOD

The patients over 18 years old and diagnosed HE in the ED of a tertiary hospital were included in the study. Demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory parameters, predisposing causes and outcomes of the patients included in the study were recorded in the data form. Severity of liver disease was assessed by Child Pugh Score (CPS), End-stage liver disease model (MELD), MELD-Na and MELD-Lactate scores.

RESULTS

Two hundred fifty-four patients diagnosed with HE were included in the study. 59.1% of the patients were male. The mean age of the patients was 65.2 ± 12.6 years. The mortality rate of the patients was 47.2%. When the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, which determines the predictive properties of laboratory parameters and disease severity scores, was examined, the area under curve value of the MELD-Lactate score (0.858 95% CI 0.812-0.904, P  < 0.001) was the highest. Binary logistic regression analysis for the estimation of patients' 30-day mortality showed that CPS and MELD-Lactate scores and blood ammonia and B-type natriuretic peptide levels were independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

According to the study data, MELD-Lactate and BNP levels in patients diagnosed with HE in the ED may help the clinician in the prediction of 30-day mortality in the early period.

Comparing Three Profoundly Influential Prognostic Scores in Cirrhotic Patients with Acute-on-Chronic-Liver Failure Admitted to the ICU: Prediction of One-Month Mortality-A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic-liver failure (ACLF) demonstrates high short-term mortality rates and usually requires intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Accurate prognostication of these patients is pivotal for timely referral for liver transplantation. The superiority of CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C ACLF lactate, and NACSELD-ACLF scores in Asian patients with ACLF admitted to an ICU remains inconclusive.

AIMS

To compare the predictive performance of CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C ACLF lactate, and NACSELD-ACLF scores for one-month mortality.

METHODS

276 consecutive cirrhotic patients with ACLF admitted to ICU were enrolled. The prognostic values for one-month mortality were assessed by AUROC analysis.

RESULTS

The primary cause of cirrhosis in this cohort was alcohol abuse (56.5%). AUROC analysis (95% confidence intervals) demonstrated that CLIF-C ACLF lactate [0.802 (0.747-0.856)] outperformed both CLIF-C ACLF [0.791 (0.733-0.848)] and NACSELD-ACLF [0.673 (0.606-0.740)] in predicting one-month mortality. However, no statistically significant difference was observed between the predictive abilities of CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C ACLF lactate.

CONCLUSIONS

In critically ill cirrhotic patients with ACLF admitted to the hepatology ICU, CLIF ACLF-lactate outperformed CLIF-C ACLF and NACSELD-ACLF in predicting one-month mortality. Nevertheless, no statistically significant difference was observed between CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C ACLF lactate. Larger-scale multi-center prospective studies are warranted to validate these results.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure alters linezolid pharmacokinetics in critically ill patients with continuous hemodialysis: an observational study

BACKGROUND

In acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), adequate antibiotic dosing is challenging due to changes of drug distribution and elimination. We studied the pharmacokinetics of linezolid in critically ill patients with ACLF during continuous renal replacement therapy compared to patients without concomitant liver failure (NLF).

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, patients received linezolid 600 mg bid. Linezolid serum samples were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography. Population pharmacokinetic modelling was performed followed by Monte-Carlo simulations of 150 mg bid, 300 mg bid, 450 mg bid, 600 mg bid, and 900 mg bid to assess trough concentration target attainment of 2-7 mg/L.

RESULTS

Eighteen patients were included in this study with nine suffering from ACLF. Linezolid body clearance was lower in the ACLF group with mean (standard deviation) 1.54 (0.52) L/h versus 6.26 (2.43) L/h for NLF, P < 0.001. A trough concentration of 2-7 mg/L was reached with the standard dose of 600 mg bid in the NLF group in 47%, with 42% being underexposed and 11% overexposed versus 20% in the ACLF group with 77% overexposed and 3% underexposed. The highest probability of target exposure was attained with 600 mg bid in the NLF group and 150 mg bid in the ACLF group with 53%.

CONCLUSION

Linezolid body clearance in ACLF was markedly lower than in NLF. Given the overall high variability, therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) with dose adjustments seems required to optimize target attainment. Until TDM results are available, a dose reduction may be considered in ACLF patients to prevent overexposure.

Body composition and short-term mortality in patients critically ill with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background & Aims

Body composition is sex dependent and associated with an increased mortality risk in patients with cirrhosis. We evaluated whether it was also associated with short-term mortality in patients critically ill with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

Patients and methods

We retrospectively included all patients with cirrhosis and ACLF hospitalised in the intensive care unit (ICU) of Lausanne University Hospital between 2010 and 2019 for whom an abdominal computed tomography (CT) scan performed ±7 days from admission was available. Patients from the ICU of Paul Brousse University Hospital admitted between 2017 and 2020 served as an external cohort. All body composition parameters at the third lumbar vertebral level (L3) were quantified using a deep learning-based method.

Results

In total, 192 patients from Lausanne were included. Median age was 62 years and 28-day survival rate was 58.2%. In males, variables independently associated with 28-day mortality on days 1 and 3 were Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF-lactate and sarcopenia. In females, CLIF-C ACLF-lactate on days 1 and 3 was the only predictor of 28-day survival. We derived two scores combining sarcopenia and the CLIF-C ACLF-lactate score on days 1 and 3, with area under the receiver operating characteristic outperforming the CLIF-C ACLF-lactate score alone in male but not in female patients. Comparable results were found in the external cohort of 58 patients and supported the sex specificity of the performance of the model. Patients with sarcopenia had increased risks of invasive fungal infection and renal replacement therapy.

Conclusion

Sarcopenia was associated with 28-day mortality in male but not in female patients critically ill with ACLF. Although screening for sarcopenia could impact the management of male patients, further studies are needed in female cohorts to investigate whether other body composition parameters are associated with outcomes.

Impact and implications

Body composition, easily assessed by CT, is altered in patients with cirrhosis and associated with outcome; it has never been investigated in patients critically ill with ACLF. The results of the present study, underlining the benefit of sarcopenia evaluation to improve prognosis prediction in males critically ill with ACLF, are of importance for physicians managing such patients to optimise the decision-making process toward continued treatment, liver transplantation, or limitation of care. In a wider sense, besides the number and course of organ failures, the results recall the weight of the general condition of males with ACLF at admission to ICU. In females critically ill with ACLF, in analyses limited by the sample size, none of the body composition parameters was associated with short-term mortality independently of organ failures; this suggests that the number and course of organ failures are the main determinant of mortality in these patients.

Emerging concepts in the care of patients with cirrhosis and septic shock

Septic shock impacts approximately 6% of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and is associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. Although a number of landmark clinical trials have paved the way for incremental improvements in the diagnosis and management of septic shock in the general population, patients with cirrhosis have largely been excluded from these studies and critical knowledge gaps continue to impact the care of these individuals. In this review, we discuss nuances in the care of patients with cirrhosis and septic shock using a pathophysiology-based approach. We illustrate that septic shock may be challenging to diagnose in this population in the context of factors such as chronic hypotension, impaired lactate metabolism, and concomitant hepatic encephalopathy. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the application of routine interventions such as intravenous fluids, vasopressors, antibiotics, and steroids should be carefully considered among those with decompensated cirrhosis in light of hemodynamic, metabolic, hormonal, and immunologic disturbances. We propose that future research should include and characterize patients with cirrhosis in a systematic manner, and clinical practice guidelines may need to be refined accordingly.

Scoring models and test indexes for diagnosis and prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

Hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a common type of liver failure, which can occur in the context of chronic hepatitis B or cirrhosis compensatory period or decompensated period. HBV-ACLF progresses rapidly, is often complicated with multiple organ failure syndrome involving the liver, brain, heart, kidney, etc., and is associated with an extremely high short-term mortality rate. The American College of Gastroenterology (ACG) defines HBV-ACLF as a potentially reversible disease, and early diagnosis and standardized treatment will affect its prognosis. In recent years, the clinical application of some new scoring models and biomarkers has effectively improved the diagnosis and prognosis of HBV-ACLF. This article reviews some scoring models and test indexes recently used in the clinical treatment and explores their value in the diagnosis and prognosis of HBV-ACLF.

Artificial Liver Support with CytoSorb and MARS in Liver Failure: A Retrospective Propensity Matched Analysis

Background: Liver failure represents a life-threatening organ dysfunction with liver transplantation as the only proven curable therapy to date. Liver assist devices have been extensively researched to either bridge such patients to transplantation or promote spontaneous recovery. The aim of our study was to compare two such devices, the Molecular Adsorbent Recirculating System (MARS) and CytoSorb, in patients with liver failure. Methods: We retrospectively included 15 patients who underwent MARS during their intensive care unit stay and matched them to 15 patients who underwent hemoadsorption using CytoSorb. Clinical and paraclinical data obtained after each individual session, after the course of treatment, as well as at the end of the intensive care unit stay were compared between the two groups. Results: Single sessions of CytoSorb and MARS were both associated with a significant decrease in bilirubin (p = 0.04 and p = 0.04, respectively) and ammonia levels (p = 0.04 and p = 0.04, respectively), but only CytoSorb therapy was associated with a decrease in lactate dehydrogenase levels (p = 0.04) and in platelet count (p = 0.04). After the course of treatment, only CytoSorb was associated with a significant decrease in lactate (p = 0.01), bilirubin (p = 0.01), ammonia (p = 0.02), and lactate dehydrogenase levels (p = 0.01), while patients treated with MARS did not show any improvement in paraclinical liver tests. In addition, only CytoSorb treatment was associated with a significant improvement in the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score (p = 0.04). Conclusion: In conclusion, our results show a potential benefit of CytoSorb in rebalancing liver functional tests in patients with liver failure compared to MARS but the exact effects on patient outcome, including hospital length of stay and survival, should be further investigated in randomized control trials.

MELD-Lactate Predicts Poor Outcome in Variceal Bleeding in Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Predictors of poor outcome associated with variceal bleeding remain suboptimal. In patients with cirrhosis, serum lactate combined with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD-LA) improved prediction across heterogeneous populations. However, prognostic properties have not yet been assessed in the context of variceal bleeding.

AIMS

We aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of MELD-LA compared to MELD, lactate, and nadir hemoglobin in cirrhosis patients with variceal bleeding.

METHODS

In this multicenter study, we identified 472 patients with variceal bleeding from a German primary cohort (University Hospitals Hamburg/Frankfurt/Cologne), and two independent external validation cohorts [Veterans Affairs (VA), Baylor University]. Discrimination for 30-day mortality was analyzed and scores were compared. MELD-LA was evaluated separately in validation cohorts to ensure consistency of findings.

RESULTS

In contrast to nadir hemoglobin, MELD and peak-lactate at time of bleeding were significantly higher in 30-day non-survivors in the primary cohort (p = 0.708; p < 0.001). MELD-LA had excellent discrimination for 30-day mortality (AUROC 0.82, 95% CI 0.76-0.88), better than MELD and peak-lactate (AUROC 0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.84; AUROC 0.73, 95% CI 0.66-0.81). MELD-LA predicted 30-day mortality independently of age, sex, severity of liver disease and vasopressor support (HR 1.29 per 1-point-increase of MELD-LA; 95% CI 1.19-1.41; p < 0.001). Similarly, MELD-LA demonstrated excellent discrimination for 30-day mortality in the VA (AUROC = 0.86, 95% CI 0.79-0.93) and Baylor cohort (AUROC = 0.85, 95% CI 0.74-0.95).

CONCLUSIONS

MELD-LA significantly improves discrimination of short-term mortality associated with variceal bleeding, compared to MELD, peak-lactate and nadir hemoglobin. Thus, MELD-LA might represent a useful and objective marker for risk assessment and therapeutic intervention in patients with variceal bleeding.

Factors predicting mortality in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis visiting the emergency department

Liver cirrhosis (LC) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide and is becoming a regional and healthcare burden. South Korea is one of the 10 countries with the highest age standardized prevalence of decompensated LC. Moreover, the proportion of patients with alcoholic LC is increasing and there has been no decrease in the incidence of decompensated alcoholic LC. Patients with decompensated LC frequently visit the emergency department (ED). Several studies focused on patients with LC who visited the ED, but the studies about alcoholic LC were limited. This study aimed to identify predicting factors for mortality in alcoholic LC patients visiting the ED. This was a retrospective study of alcoholic LC patients who visited an ED between November 2017 and June 2021. The baseline characteristics, complications of LC, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and laboratory values including lactate were assessed. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. In total, 433 patients with alcoholic LC were included for analysis and the in hospital mortality rate was 15.9% (n = 69). Univariate regression analyses identified that MELD score, lactate, platelet, international normalized ratio, bilirubin, creatinine, albumin, and C-reactive protein (CRP) predicted in-hospital mortality. Multivariate regression analysis showed that MELD score, lactate, albumin, and CRP were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. MELD score, lactate, albumin, and CRP predicted the mortality in alcoholic LC patients visiting the ED.

The impact of multidrug-resistant microorganisms on critically ill patients with cirrhosis in the intensive care unit: a cohort study

The impact of multidrug-resistant (MDR) colonization and MDR infection in critically ill cirrhosis patients remains unclear. We assessed the association of MDR colonization and MDR infection with these patients' survival. Observational cohort study including adult cirrhosis patients admitted to 5 intensive care units at Northwestern Memorial Hospital (Chicago, Illinois, USA) on January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2017. Patients admitted for elective liver transplant or with previous liver transplant were excluded. Patients were screened for MDR colonization on intensive care unit admission. Infection diagnoses during the intensive care unit stay were considered. The primary endpoint was hospital transplant-free survival. Among 600 patients included, 362 (60%) were men and median (interquartile range) age was 58.0 (49.0, 64.0) years. Median (interquartile range) Model for End-stage Liver Disease, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and Chronic Liver Failure-Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure scores on intensive care unit day 1 were 28.0 (20.0, 36.0), 9.0 (6.0, 13.0), and 55.0 (48.0, 64.0), respectively. Overall, 76 (13%) patients were transplanted and 443 (74%) survived the hospital stay. Infections were diagnosed in 347 (58%) patients: pneumonia in 197 (33%), urinary tract infection in 119 (20%), peritonitis in 93 (16%), bloodstream infection in 99 (16%), Clostridium difficile colitis in 9 (2%), and catheter tip infection in 7 (1%). MDR colonization and MDR infection were identified in 200 (33%) and 69 (12%) patients, respectively. MDR colonization was associated with MDR infection (p < 0.001). MDR colonization or MDR infection was associated with higher number and duration of antibiotics (p < 0.001). Following adjustment for covariables (age, sex, etiology, portal hypertension, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score), MDR colonization [OR (95% CI), 0.64 (0.43, 0.95)] or MDR infection [adjusted OR (95% CI), 0.22 (0.12, 0.40)] were independently associated with lower transplant-free survival. Among critically ill cirrhosis patients, MDR colonization or MDR infection portended a worse prognosis.

APASL-ACLF Research Consortium-Artificial Intelligence (AARC-AI) model precisely predicts outcomes in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We hypothesized that artificial intelligence (AI) models are more precise than standard models for predicting outcomes in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

METHODS

We recruited ACLF patients between 2009 and 2020 from APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC). Their clinical data, investigations and organ involvement were serially noted for 90-days and utilized for AI modelling. Data were split randomly into train and validation sets. Multiple AI models, MELD and AARC-Model, were created/optimized on train set. Outcome prediction abilities were evaluated on validation sets through area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and class precision.

RESULTS

Among 2481 ACLF patients, 1501 in train set and 980 in validation set, the extreme gradient boost-cross-validated model (XGB-CV) demonstrated the highest AUC in train (0.999), validation (0.907) and overall sets (0.976) for predicting 30-day outcomes. The AUC and accuracy of the XGB-CV model (%Δ) were 7.0% and 6.9% higher than the standard day-7 AARC model (p < .001) and 12.8% and 10.6% higher than the day 7 MELD for 30-day predictions in validation set (p < .001). The XGB model had the highest AUC for 7- and 90-day predictions as well (p < .001). Day-7 creatinine, international normalized ratio (INR), circulatory failure, leucocyte count and day-4 sepsis were top features determining the 30-day outcomes. A simple decision tree incorporating creatinine, INR and circulatory failure was able to classify patients into high (~90%), intermediate (~60%) and low risk (~20%) of mortality. A web-based AARC-AI model was developed and validated twice with optimal performance for 30-day predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

The performance of the AARC-AI model exceeds the standard models for outcome predictions in ACLF. An AI-based decision tree can reliably undertake severity-based stratification of patients for timely interventions.

Elevated lactate/albumin ratio as a novel predictor of in-hospital mortality in hospitalized cirrhotics

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Novel predictors of prognosis in cirrhotic patients have been emerging in recent years and studies show that the lactate/albumin ratio can serve as an early prognostic marker in different patient groups. We aimed to uncover the clinical significance of the lactate/albumin ratio in hospitalized patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective single-center cohort study was conducted in a tertiary medical center. Subjects included had an established diagnosis of liver cirrhosis and were admitted to the ICU or the Internal Medicine department with a clinical picture of acute-on-chronic liver failure between the years 2010 and 2021. The primary outcome was to assess the utility of the lactate/albumin ratio as a prognostic marker to predict mortality in hospitalized cirrhotic patients with acute-on-chronic hepatic failure.

RESULTS

Two hundred seventy-nine patients were included in this study. Univariate analysis revealed that mean WBC count, platelet/creatinine ratio, aspartate transaminase (AST), lactate, and MELD score were all significantly associated with the primary outcome. Multivariate analysis showed that the lactate/albumin ratio was the strongest statistically significant (p < 0.001) predictor of death during hospitalization - OR 13.196 (95% CI 3.6-48.3), followed by mean WBC count, MELD score, and serum lactate levels. A ROC curve was constructed, which resulted in an area under the curve (AUC) equal to 0.77. Crosstabs from the ROC showed a sensitivity of 66.7% and a specificity of 76.2% when the lactate/albumin ratio chosen as a cutoff was 0.9061 CONCLUSIONS: Elevated lactate/albumin ratio predicts in-hospital mortality in hospitalized cirrhotics with acute-on-chronic hepatic failure.

Pulmonary impairment independently determines mortality in critically ill patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In ACLF patients, an adequate risk stratification is essential, especially for liver transplant allocation, since ACLF is associated with high short-term mortality. The CLIF-C ACLF score is the best prognostic model to predict outcome in ACLF patients. While lung failure is generally regarded as signum malum in ICU care, this study aims to evaluate and quantify the role of pulmonary impairment on outcome in ACLF patients.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, 498 patients with liver cirrhosis and admission to IMC/ICU were included. ACLF was defined according to EASL-CLIF criteria. Pulmonary impairment was classified into three groups: unimpaired ventilation, need for mechanical ventilation and defined pulmonary failure. These factors were analysed in different cohorts, including a propensity score-matched ACLF cohort.

RESULTS

Mechanical ventilation and pulmonary failure were identified as independent risk factors for increased short-term mortality. In matched ACLF patients, the presence of pulmonary failure showed the highest 28-day mortality (83.7%), whereas mortality rates in ACLF with mechanical ventilation (67.3%) and ACLF without pulmonary impairment (38.8%) were considerably lower (p < .001). Especially in patients with pulmonary impairment, the CLIF-C ACLF score showed poor predictive accuracy. Adjusting the CLIF-C ACLF score for the grade of pulmonary impairment improved the prediction significantly.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights that not only pulmonary failure but also mechanical ventilation is associated with worse prognosis in ACLF patients. The grade of pulmonary impairment should be considered in the risk assessment in ACLF patients. The new score may be useful in the selection of patients for liver transplantation.

Survival prediction using the Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival (FIPS) in critically ill patients with acute- on chronic liver failure: A retrospective observational study

Background and aim

Liver cirrhosis in patients treated in the intensive care unit (ICU) is associated with high mortality. Well established scores are useful to allow for assessment of prognosis and support ICU treatment guidance. However, currently used scoring systems often do not reflect the complexity of critically ill patients. Therefore, we tested the newly developed Freiburg index-of post-TIPS survival (FIPS) score in order to assess its potential role for prognostication of cirrhotic patients in the ICU.

Methods

A total of 310 patients with liver cirrhosis treated in the ICU between 2010 and 2021 were enrolled in this retrospective observational study. Prognostic factors for mortality and 28-day mortality were assessed. Moreover, using c indices the prognostic discrimination of different prognostic scores was analyzed.

Results

The FIPS score allowed to discriminate patients with high ICU mortality and within 28-days after ICU treatment (ICU mortality: 42.2 vs. 59.9%, p = 0.008 and 28-day mortality: 43.3 vs. 74.1%, p < 0.001). However, the FIPS score in its current composition showed no superior prognostic discrimination compared to other established scores. Multivariable analyses identified the FIPS score (HR 1.25 [1.04-1.49], p = 0.015) and lactate at admission (HR 1.07 [1.04-1.09], p < 0.001) as significant predictors of ICU mortality. Lactate at admission substantially improved patient risk stratification within each FIPS risk groups.

Conclusion

Similar to other commonly used scores, the FIPS score in its current composition does not allow a sufficiently reliable prognostication of critically ill patients treated in the ICU. However, adding lactate as additional factor to the FIPS score may improve its prognostic ability.

Transarterial Embolization for Active Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Predictors of Early Mortality and Early Rebleeding

Background: The aim of this study was to determine predictive factors of early mortality and early rebleeding (≤30 days) following transarterial embolization (TAE) for treatment of acute gastrointestinal bleeding. Methods: All consecutive patients admitted for acute gastrointestinal bleeding to the interventional radiology department in a tertiary center between January 2012 and January 2022 were included. Exclusion criteria were patients: (1) aged < 18-year-old, (2) referred to the operation room without TAE, (3) treated for hemobilia, (4) with mesenteric hematoma, (5) lost to follow-up within 30 days after the procedure. We evaluated pre and per-procedure clinical data, biological data, outcomes, and complications. Results: Sixty-eight patients were included: 55 (80.9%) experienced upper gastrointestinal bleeding and 13 (19.1%) lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Median age was 69 (61−74) years. There were 49 (72%) males. Median hemoglobin was 7.25 (6.1−8.3) g/dL. There were 30 (50%) ulcers. Coils were used in 46 (67.6%) procedures. Early mortality was 15 (22.1%) and early rebleeding was 17 (25%). In multivariate analysis, hyperlactatemia (≥2 mmol/L) were predictive of early mortality (≤30 days). A high number of red blood cells units was associated with early rebleeding. Conclusion: This study identified some predictive factors of 30-day mortality and early rebleeding following TAE. This will assist in patient selection and may help improve the management of gastrointestinal bleeding.

Predictive factors of inhospital mortality for ICU patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure undergoing liver transplantation

INTRODUCTION

Liver transplantation (LT) is the only effective treatment for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), but it is limited by organ availability. This study aims to identify predictive factors of mortality for LT candidates based on parameters measured at the admission into the ICU.

METHODS

Sixty-four patients diagnosed with ACLF, admitted consecutively into ICU between 2015 and 2019, were retrospectively enrolled in the study. Data were assessed using univariate and multivariate regression analyses to identify risk factors for inhospital mortality and 1-year mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 67% of patients were diagnosed with ACLF grade 3, and 25 and 8% with grades 2 and 1. Thirty percent received LT with a 1-year mortality rate of 16%, whereas for nontransplanted patients it reached 90%. Clinical features were compared according to transplant eligibility. In the univariate analysis model, lung failure (HR, 3.01; 95% CI, 1.48-6.09; P = 0.002), high lactate levels (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04; P < 0.001) and CLIF-ACLF score (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.09; P = 0.026) were independently correlated to increased inhospital mortality. LT reduced mortality risk (HR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.04-0.72; P = 0.016).

CONCLUSION

Lung failure, CLIF-ACLF score and blood lactate levels at admission were the only statistically significant independent predictors of inhospital mortality, more accurate in determining transplant success than ACLF grade.

EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of hepatic encephalopathy

The EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPGs) on the management of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) present evidence-based answers to a set of relevant questions (where possible, formulated in PICO [patient/population, intervention, comparison and outcomes] format) on the definition, diagnosis, differential diagnosis and treatment of HE. The document does not cover the pathophysiology of HE and does not cover all available treatment options. The methods through which it was developed and any information relevant to its interpretation are also provided.

Severe hyperlactatemia in unselected surgical patients: retrospective analysis of prognostic outcome factors

Background

Etiology of hyperlactatemia in ICU patients is heterogeneous—septic, cardiogenic or hemorrhagic shock seem to be predominant reasons. Multiple studies show hyperlactatemia as an independent predictor for ICU mortality. Only limited data exists about the etiology of hyperlactatemia and lactate clearance and their influence on mortality. The goal of this single-center retrospective study, was to evaluate the effect of severe hyperlactatemia and reduced lactate clearance rate on the outcome of unselected ICU surgical patients.

Methods

Overall, 239 surgical patients with severe hyperlactatemia (> 10 mmol/L) who were treated in the surgical ICU at the University Medical Center Freiburg between June 2011 and August 2017, were included in this study. The cause of the hyperlactatemia as well as the postoperative course and the patient morbidity and mortality were retrospectively analyzed. Lactate clearance was calculated by comparing lactate level 12 h after first measurement of > 10 mmol/L.

Results

The overall mortality rate in our cohort was 82.4%. Severe hyperlactatemia was associated with death in the ICU (p < 0.001). The main etiologic factor was sepsis (51.9%), followed by mesenteric ischemia (15.1%), hemorrhagic shock (13.8%) and liver failure (9.6%). Higher lactate levels at ICU admission were associated with increased mortality (p < 0.001). Lactate clearance after 12 h was found to predict ICU mortality (ANOVA p < 0.001) with an overall clearance of under 50% within 12 h. The median percentage of clearance was 60.3% within 12 h for the survivor and 29.1% for the non-survivor group (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Lactate levels appropriately reflect disease severity and are associated with short-term mortality in critically ill patients. The main etiologic factor for surgical patients is sepsis. When elevated lactate levels persist more than 12 h, survival chances are low and the benefit of continued maximum therapy should be evaluated.

90-day Case-Fatality in Critically ill Patients with Chronic Liver Disease Influenced by Presence of Portal Hypertension, Results from a Multicentre Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Critical illness in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) is increasing in occurrence, and by virtue of its adverse effect on prognosis, its presence may influence the decision to offer admission to intensive care units (ICU). Our objective was to examine the determinants and outcome of patients with CLD admitted to ICU.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of patients admitted to four adult ICUs in Queensland, Australia from 2017 to 2019. Patients with mild or moderate-severe CLD were defined by the absence and presence of portal hypertension, respectively, and were was determined using granular ICU and state-wide administrative databases. The primary outcome was 90-day all cause case-fatality.

RESULTS

We included 3836 patients in the analysis, of which, 60 (2%) had mild liver disease and 132 (3%) had moderate-severe liver disease . Patients with CLD had higher incidence of other co-morbidities with the median adjusted-Charlson co-morbidity index (CCI) was 1 (interquartile range; IQR 0-3) for no CLD, 2 (IQR 1.5-4) for mild CLD, and 3 (IQR 2-5) for moderate-severe CLD. Case-fatality rates at 90 days was 17% for no CLD, 25% for mild CLD, and 41% for moderate-severe CLD. Among those with mild and moderate-severe CLD, an increased co-morbidity burden as measured by an adjusted CCI score of low (0-3), medium (4-5), high (6-7) and very high (>7) resulted in increasing case-fatality rates of 24-40%, 11-28.5%, 33-62%, and 50% respectively. Moderate-severe CLD, but not mild CLD, was independently associated with increased case-fatality at 90 days (Odds Ratio 1.58; 95% confidence interval 1.01-2.48; p = 0.004) after adjusting for medical co-morbidities and severity of illness using logistic regression analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Although patients with moderate-severe CLD have an increased risk for 90-day case-fatality, patients with mild CLD are not at higher risk for death following ICU admission.

Establishment of MELD-lactate clearance scoring system in predicting death risk of critically ill cirrhotic patients

Background

To develop a scoring system related to the lactate clearance (ΔLA) to predict the mortality risk (MELD-ΔLA) for critically ill cirrhotic patients.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, 881 critically ill cirrhotic patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database were included eventually. The outcomes of our study were defined as ICU death, 28-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality. Predictors were identified by multivariate Cox analysis to develop the predictive scoring system. The C-index and area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) were used to identify the predicting performance of the MELD-ΔLA, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA), the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), Child–Pugh, chronic liver failure consortium acute-on-chronic liver failure (CLIF-C ACLF), chronic liver failure consortium-acute decompensation (CLIF-C AD) and MELD-Na scoring systems. Additionally, subgroup analysis was also performed based on whether critically ill cirrhotic patients underwent liver transplantation.

Results

Creatinine, bilirubin, international normalized ratio (INR), lactate first, ΔLA and vasopressors were closely associated with ICU death of liver critically ill cirrhotic patients. The C-index of the MELD-ΔLA in ICU death was 0.768 (95% CI 0.736–0.799) and the AUC for the MELD-ΔLA scoring system in predicting 28-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality were 0.774 (95% CI 0.743–0.804), 0.765 (95% CI 0.735–0.796), and 0.757 (95% CI 0.726–0.788), suggested that MELD-ΔLA scoring system has a good predictive value than SOFA, CLIF-SOFA, MELD, Child–Pugh, CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C AD) and MELD-Na scoring systems. Additionally, the study also confirmed the good predictive value of MELD-ΔLA scoring system for critically ill cirrhotic patients regardless of undergoing liver transplantation.

Conclusion

The developed MELD-ΔLA score is a simple scoring system in predicting the risk of ICU death, 28-day, 90-day and 1-year mortality for critically ill cirrhotic patients, which may have a good predictive performance.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-022-02351-5.

Evaluation and management of emergencies in the patient with cirrhosis

The approach to and management of critically ill patients is one of the most versatile themes in emergency medicine. Patients with cirrhosis of the liver have characteristics that are inherent to their disease that can condition modification in acute emergency treatment. Pathophysiologic changes that occur in cirrhosis merit the implementation of an analysis as to whether the overall management of a critically ill patient can generally be applied to patients with cirrhosis of the liver or if they should be treated in a special manner. Through a review of the medical literature, the available information was examined, and the evidence found on the special management required by those patients was narratively synthesized, selecting the most representative decompensations within chronic disease that require emergency treatment.

Prognostic Role of MELD-Lactate in Cirrhotic Patients' Short- and Long-Term Prognosis, Stratified by Causes of Cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

Recently, model for end-stage liver disease-lactate (MELD-LA) proved to be a superior predicting factor of inpatient mortality in patients with chronic liver disease. The study's objective was to evaluate the ability of MELD-LA to predict both short- and long-term mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients stratified by causes of cirrhosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective observational research of 469 cirrhotic patients entering intensive care unit. Clinical parameters and prognostic scores were measured and collected in the first 24 hours after entering intensive care unit. Follow-up duration was at least 5 years. Independent relationship between MELD-LA and mortality was evaluated by multivariate logistic regression analyses. Discrimination of scoring system was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Calibration of the score was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test for significance.

RESULTS

The MELD-LA score (odds ratio: 1.179, 95% confidence interval: 1.112-1.250, P < 0.001) was an independent risk factor for 15-day mortality. The area under the curve of MELD-LA was the highest (0.808, 95% confidence interval: 0.765-0.852) in predicting 15-day mortality and it had superior calibration. We found MELD-LA showed the best discrimination ability in cirrhotic patients caused by both alcohol and hepatitis (0.783, 95% confidence interval: 0.651-0.915) or alcohol alone (0.805, 95% confidence interval: 0.743-0.867).

CONCLUSIONS

MELD-LA performs better for predicting short-term prognosis in critically ill cirrhotic patients, especially caused by both alcohol and hepatitis or alcohol alone.

Preoperative hyperlactatemia and early mortality after liver transplantation: selection of important variables using random forest survival analysis

Background

Generally, lactate levels > 2 mmol/L represent hyperlactatemia, whereas lactic acidosis is often defined as lactate > 4 mmol/L. Although hyperlactatemia is common finding in liver transplant (LT) candidates, association between lactate and organ failures with Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure (ACLF) is poorly studied. We searched the important variables for pre-LT hyperlactatemia and examined the impact of preoperative hyperlactatemia on early mortality after LT.

Methods

A total of 2,002 patients from LT registry between January 2008 and February 2019 were analyzed. Six organ failures (liver, kidney, brain, coagulation, circulation, and lung) were defined by criteria of EASL-CLIF ACLF Consortium. Variable importance of preoperative hyperlactatemia was examined by machine learning using random survival forest (RSF). Kaplan-Meier Survival curve analysis was performed to assess 90-day mortality.

Results

Median lactate level was 1.9 mmol/L (interquartile range: 1.4, 2.4 mmol/L) and 107 (5.3%) patients showed > 4.0 mmol/L. RSF analysis revealed that the four most important variables for hyperlactatemia were MELD score, circulatory failure, hemoglobin, and respiratory failure. The 30-day and 90-day mortality rates were 2.7% and 5.1%, whereas patients with lactate > 4.0 mmol/L showed increased rate of 15.0% and 19.6%, respectively.

Conclusion

About 50% and 5% of LT candidates showed pre-LT hyperlactatemia of > 2.0 mmol/L and > 4.0 mmol/L, respectively. Pre-LT lactate > 4.0 mmol/L was associated with increased early post-LT mortality. Our results suggest that future study of correcting modifiable risk factors may play a role in preventing hyperlactatemia and lowering early mortality after LT.

Intraoperative lactic acid concentration during liver transplantation and cutoff values to predict early mortality: a retrospective analysis of 3,338 cases

Background

We aimed to explore the distribution of intraoperative lactic acid (LA) level during liver transplantation (LT) and determine the optimal cutoff values to predict post-LT 30-day and 90-day mortality.

Methods

Intraoperative LA data from 3,338 patients were collected between 2008 to 2019 and all-cause mortalities within 30 and 90 days were retrospectively reviewed. Of the three LA levels measured during preanhepatic, anhepatic, and neohepatic phase of LT, the peak LA level was selected to explore the distribution and predict early post-LT mortality. To determine the best cutoff values of LA, we used a classification and regression tree algorithm and maximally selected rank statistics with the smallest P value.

Results

The median intraoperative LA level was 4.4 mmol/L (range: 0.5-34.7, interquartile range: 3.0-6.2 mmol/L). Of the 3,338 patients, 1,884 (56.4%) had LA levels > 4.0 mmol/L and 188 (5.6%) had LA levels > 10 mmol/L. Patients with LA levels > 16.7 mmol/L and 13.5-16.7 mmol/L showed significantly higher 30-day mortality rates of 58.3% and 21.2%, respectively. For the prediction of the 90-day mortality, 8.4 mmol/L of intraoperative LA was the best cutoff value.

Conclusions

Approximately 6% of the LT recipients showed intraoperative hyperlactatemia of > 10 mmol/L during LT, and those with LA > 8.4 mmol/L were associated with significantly higher early post-LT mortality.

An exploratory study of ascitic fluid lactate as prognostic factor of mortality in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis

BACKGROUND

The diagnostic value of ascitic fluid lactate (AF lactate) was previously evaluated in spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) but its prognostic value was not established.

AIM

To assess the prognostic value of AF lactate in SBP.

METHODS

We prospectively studied 63 consecutive patients with SBP. Fifty patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) or acute decompensation (AD) (ACLF/AD group) without SBP and 30 with stable decompensated cirrhosis (DC) were included as controls. In SBP, mortality was recorded at 30, 90 and 180 days.

RESULTS

Arterial and AF lactate were significantly higher in SBP compared to other groups. Analyzing the SBP group alone, AF lactate accurately differentiated survivors from nonsurvivors in all time points. The prognostic performance of AF lactate was improved over time, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic computed at 0.894, 0.927 and 0.934 at 30, 90 and 180 days, respectively. The cutoff level of 2 mmol/L was associated with 100, 100 and 94.7% sensitivity, 57.9, 73.3 and 80% specificity, 61, 80.5 and 87.8% positive predictive value and 100, 100 and 90.9% negative predictive value, respectively. Arterial lactate, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score predicted outcomes less accurately than AF lactate. Patients with AF lactate >2 mmol/L had a worse prognosis compared to patients with ≤2 mmol/L (log-rank P < 0.001). No case with AF lactate ≤2 mmol/L died within 90 days postSBP diagnosis. In Cox multivariate analysis at all time points, only AF lactate and NLR were independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

An AF lactate level of 2 mmol/L has a high ability to differentiate survivors from nonsurvivors in the first 180 days postSBP. Its prognostic value outperformed arterial-lactate, NLR and MELD.

Machine Learning Prediction Models for Mortality in Intensive Care Unit Patients with Lactic Acidosis

Background: Lactic acidosis is the most common cause of anion gap metabolic acidosis in the intensive care unit (ICU), associated with poor outcomes including mortality. We sought to compare machine learning (ML) approaches versus logistic regression analysis for prediction of mortality in lactic acidosis patients admitted to the ICU. Methods: We used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database to identify ICU adult patients with lactic acidosis (serum lactate ≥4 mmol/L). The outcome of interest was hospital mortality. We developed prediction models using four ML approaches consisting of random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), artificial neural network (ANN), and statistical modeling with forward stepwise logistic regression using the testing dataset. We then assessed model performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), accuracy, precision, error rate, Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), F1 score, and assessed model calibration using the Brier score, in the independent testing dataset. Results: Of 1919 lactic acidosis ICU patients, 1535 and 384 were included in the training and testing dataset, respectively. Hospital mortality was 30%. RF had the highest AUROC at 0.83, followed by logistic regression 0.81, XGBoost 0.81, ANN 0.79, and DT 0.71. In addition, RF also had the highest accuracy (0.79), MCC (0.45), F1 score (0.56), and lowest error rate (21.4%). The RF model was the most well-calibrated. The Brier score for RF, DT, XGBoost, ANN, and multivariable logistic regression was 0.15, 0.19, 0.18, 0.19, and 0.16, respectively. The RF model outperformed multivariable logistic regression model, SOFA score (AUROC 0.74), SAP II score (AUROC 0.77), and Charlson score (AUROC 0.69). Conclusion: The ML prediction model using RF algorithm provided the highest predictive performance for hospital mortality among ICU patient with lactic acidosis.

Voriconazole Pharmacokinetics Are Not Altered in Critically Ill Patients with Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure and Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy: An Observational Study

Infection and sepsis are a main cause of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Besides bacteria, molds play a role. Voriconazole (VRC) is recommended but its pharmacokinetics (PK) may be altered by ACLF. Because ACLF patients often suffer from concomitant acute renal failure, we studied the PK of VRC in patients receiving continuous renal replacement therapy (RRT) with ACLF and compared it to PK of VRC in critically ill patients with RRT without concomitant liver failure (NLF). In this prospective cohort study, patients received weight-based VRC. Pre- and post-dialysis membrane, and dialysate samples obtained at different time points were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography. An integrated dialysis pharmacometric model was used to model the available PK data. The recommended, 50% lower, and 50% higher doses were analyzed by Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) for day 1 and at steady-state with a target trough concentration (TC) of 0.5–3mg/L. Fifteen patients were included in this study. Of these, 6 patients suffered from ACLF. A two-compartment model with linear clearance described VRC PK. No difference for central (V1) or peripheral (V2) volumes of distribution or clearance could be demonstrated between the groups. V1 was 80.6L (95% confidence interval: 62.6–104) and V2 106L (65–166) with a body clearance of 4.7L/h (2.87–7.81) and RRT clearance of 1.46L/h (1.29–1.64). MCS showed TC below/within/above target of 10/74/16% on day 1 and 9/39/52% at steady-state for the recommended dose. A 50% lower dose resulted in 26/72/1% (day 1) and 17/64/19% at steady-state and 7/57/37% and 7/27/67% for a 50% higher dose. VRC pharmacokinetics are not significantly influenced by ACLF in critically ill patients who receive RRT. Maintenance dose should be adjusted in both groups. Due to the high interindividual variability, therapeutic drug monitoring seems inevitable.

Combination of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and Lactate Predicts Death in Patients Treated With Salvage Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt for Refractory Variceal Bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Data about the prognosis of salvage transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) using covered stents for refractory variceal bleeding caused by portal hypertension are scarce. We aimed to assess survival and to identify predictors of mortality in these patients.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

One hundred sixty-four patients with cirrhosis from five centers treated with salvage TIPS between 2007 and 2017 were retrospectively divided into a derivation cohort (83 patients) and a validation cohort (81 patients). Comparisons were performed using the Mann-Whitney and Fischer's exact test. Six-week overall survival (OS) was correlated with variables on the day of the TIPS using Kaplan-Meier curves with log-rank test and univariate/multivariate analyses using the Cox model. Eighty-three patients were included in the derivation cohort (male, 78%; age, 55 years, alcohol-associated cirrhosis, 88%; Model for End-Stage Liver Disease [MELD], 19 [15-27]; arterial lactate, 3.7 mmol/L [2.0-8.3]). Six-week OS rate was 58%. At multivariate analysis, the MELD score (OR, 1.064; 95% CI, 1.005-1.126; P = 0.028) and arterial lactate (OR, 1.063; 95% CI, 1.013-1.114; P = 0.032) were associated with 6-week OS. Six-week OS rates were 100% in patients with arterial lactate ≤2.5 mmol/L and MELD score ≤ 15 and 5% in patients with lactate ≥12 mmol/L and/or MELD score ≥ 30. The 81 patients of the validation cohort had similar MELD and arterial lactate level but lower creatinine level (94 vs 106 µmol/L, P = 0.008); 6-week OS was 67%. Six-week OS rates were 86% in patients with arterial lactate ≤2.5 mmol/L and MELD score ≤ 15 and 10% for patients with lactate ≥12 mmol/L and/or MELD score ≥ 30. In the overall cohort, rebleeding rate was 15.8% at 6 weeks, and the acute-on-chronic liver failure grade (OR, 1.699; 95% CI, 1.056-1.663; P = 0.040) was independently associated with rebleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

After salvage TIPS, 6-week mortality remains high and can be predicted by MELD score and lactate. Survival rate at 6 weeks was >85% in patients with arterial lactate ≤2.5 mmol/L and MELD score ≤ 15, while mortality was >90% for lactate ≥12 mmol/L and/or MELD score ≥ 30.

Comparison of General and Liver-Specific Prognostic Scores in Their Ability to Predict Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit

INTRODUCTION

Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and III and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) are prognostic scores commonly used in the intensive care unit (ICU). Their accuracy in predicting mortality has not been adequately evaluated in comparison to prognostic scores commonly used in critically ill cirrhotic patients with acute decompensation (AD) or acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

AIMS

This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of prognostic scores, including APACHE II, SOFA, Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) SOFA, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CPS), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na, MELD to serum sodium ratio (MESO) index, CLIF-C organ failure (CLIF-C OF), CLIF-C ACLF, and CLIF-C AD scores, in predicting mortality of cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU. Patients and Methods. A total of 382 patients (280 males, mean age 67.3 ± 10.6 years) with cirrhosis were retrospectively evaluated. All prognostic scores were calculated in the first 24 hours of ICU admission. Their ability to predict mortality was measured using the analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Mortality was observed in 31% of the patients. Analysis of AUC revealed that CLIF-C OF (0.807) and CLIF-SOFA (0.776) had the best ability to predict mortality in all patients, but CLIF-C OF (0.749) had higher prognostic accuracy in patients with ACLF. CLIF-SOFA, SOFA, and CLIF-C AD had the highest AUC values in patients with AD, with no statistical difference (p=0.971).

CONCLUSIONS

When compared to other general or liver-specific prognostic scores, CLIF-C OF, CLIF-SOFA, SOFA, and CLIF-C AD have good accuracy to predict mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and patients with AD. According to the clinical scenario, different scores should be used to provide prognosis to patients with cirrhosis in the ICU.

Lactate and blood ammonia on admission as biomarkers to predict the prognosis of patients with acute mushroom poisoning and liver failure: a retrospective study

The diagnosis of liver damage induced by mushroom poisoning is still challenging. This study aims to screen the early biological indexes that could predict acute mushroom poisoning with liver damage. The patients with acute mushroom poisoning and liver damage admitted to The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University，China from July 2007 to August 2017 were analyzed retrospectively. A total of 66 patients were enrolled in this study, with 44 and 22 patients in the liver injury group and liver failure group, respectively. Ten patients in the liver failure group died, with a mortality of 45.5% in this group. Multivariable Cox regression showed that the blood ammonia (NH3) and lactic acid (Lac) at the time of admission were independently associated with the in-hospital time to death for patients with liver failure induced by mushroom poisoning. Lactate and blood ammonia at the time of admission could be used to predict the prognosis of patients with acute mushroom poisoning and liver failure.

Liver transplantation for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in Europe: Results of the ELITA/EF-CLIF collaborative study (ECLIS)

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver transplantation (LT) has been proposed as an effective salvage therapy even for the sickest patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). This large collaborative study was designed to assess the current clinical practice and outcomes of patients with ACLF who are wait-listed for LT in Europe.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study including 308 consecutive patients with ACLF, listed in 20 centres across 8 European countries, from January 2018 to June 2019.

RESULTS

A total of 2,677 patients received a LT: 1,216 (45.4%) for decompensated cirrhosis. Of these, 234 (19.2%) had ACLF at LT: 58 (4.8%) had ACLF-1, 78 (6.4%) had ACLF-2, and 98 (8.1%) had ACLF-3. Wide variations were observed amongst countries: France and Germany had high rates of ACLF-2/3 (27-41%); Italy, Switzerland, Poland and the Netherlands had medium rates (9-15%); and the United Kingdom and Spain had low rates (3-5%) (p <0.0001). The 1-year probability of survival after LT for patients with ACLF was 81% (95% CI 74-87). Pre-LT arterial lactate levels >4 mmol/L (hazard ratio [HR] 3.14; 95% CI 1.37-7.19), recent infection from multidrug resistant organisms (HR 3.67; 95% CI 1.63-8.28), and renal replacement therapy (HR 2.74; 95% CI 1.37-5.51) were independent predictors of post-LT mortality. During the same period, 74 patients with ACLF died on the waiting list. In an intention-to-treat analysis, 1-year survival of patients with ACLF on the LT waiting list was 73% for ACLF-1 or -2 and 50% for ACLF-3.

CONCLUSION

The results reveal wide variations in the listing of patients with ACLF in Europe despite favourable post-LT survival. Risk factors for mortality were identified, enabling a more precise prognostic assessment of patients with ACLF.

LAY SUMMARY

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a severe clinical condition for which liver transplantation is an effective therapeutic option. This study has demonstrated that in Europe, referral and access to liver transplantation (LT) for patients with ACLF needs to be harmonised to avoid inequities. Post-LT survival for patients with ACLF was >80% after 1 year and some factors have been identified to help select patients with favourable outcomes.

Liver cirrhosis affects serum lactate level measurement while assessing disease severity in patients with sepsis

BACKGROUND

Elevated serum lactate is associated with higher mortality in sepsis, whereas liver dysfunction is associated with higher serum lactate levels. We assessed the predictive ability of serum lactate in patients with liver cirrhosis and sepsis.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 12 281 cases of suspected infection with initial serum blood lactate drawn during January 2007-December 2013.

RESULTS

Using one-to-two propensity score matching analysis, 1053 and 2106 septic patients with and without underlying liver cirrhosis, respectively, were successfully matched. Lactate levels of survivors and nonsurvivors were 2.58 and 5.93 mmol/L, respectively, in patients without liver cirrhosis (WLC), 2.96 and 7.29 mmol/L, respectively, in patients with nondecompensated liver cirrhosis (NDLC), and 4.08 and 7.16 mmol/L, respectively, in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC). In receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the sensitivity and specificity for predicting mortality were 0.81 and 0.55, respectively, in the WLC group, 0.85 and 0.45, respectively, in the NDLC group, and 0.86 and 0.33, respectively, in the DLC group, using serum lactate levels >2.0 mmol/L.

CONCLUSIONS

The serum lactate level can be used to predict the severity of sepsis in patients with liver cirrhosis; however, its specificity would be lower at a cutoff of 2.0 mmol/L.

Intensive care management of acute-on-chronic liver failure

The syndrome of acute-on-chronic liver failure combines deterioration of liver function in a patient with chronic liver disease, with the development of extrahepatic organ failure and high short-term mortality. Its successful management demands a rapid and coherent response to the development of dysfunction and failure of multiple organ systems in an intensive care unit setting. This response recognises the features that distinguish it from other critical illness and addresses the complex interplay between the precipitating insult, the many organ systems involved and the disordered physiology of underlying chronic liver disease. An evidence base is building to support the approaches currently adopted and outcomes for patients with this condition are improving, but mortality remains unacceptably high. Herein, we review practical considerations in critical care management, as well as discussing key knowledge gaps and areas of controversy that require further focussed research.

Comparative accuracy of prognostic models for short-term mortality in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients: CAP-ACLF

BACKGROUND

Multiple predictive models of mortality exist for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients that often create confusion during decision-making. We studied the natural history and evaluated the performance of prognostic models in ACLF patients.

METHODS

Prospectively collected data of ACLF patients from APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) was analyzed for 30-day outcomes. The models evaluated at days 0, 4, and 7 of presentation for 30-day mortality were: AARC (model and score), CLIF-C (ACLF score, and OF score), NACSELD-ACLF (model and binary), SOFA, APACHE-II, MELD, MELD-Lactate, and CTP. Evaluation parameters were discrimination (c-indices), calibration [accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive/negative predictive values (PPV/NPV)], Akaike/Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC/BIC), Nagelkerke-R², relative prediction errors, and odds ratios.

RESULTS

Thirty-day survival of the cohort (n = 2864) was 64.9% and was lowest for final-AARC-grade-III (32.8%) ACLF. Performance parameters of all models were best at day 7 than at day 4 or day 0 (p < 0.05 for C-indices of all models except NACSELD-ACLF). On comparison, day-7 AARC model had the numerically highest c-index 0.872, best accuracy 84.0%, PPV 87.8%, R² 0.609 and lower prediction errors by 10-50%. Day-7 NACSELD-ACLF-binary was the simple model (minimum AIC/BIC 12/17) with the highest odds (8.859) and sensitivity (100%) but with a lower PPV (70%) for mortality. Patients with day-7 AARC score > 12 had the lowest 30-day survival (5.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

APASL-ACLF is often a progressive disease, and models assessed up to day 7 of presentation reliably predict 30-day mortality. Day-7 AARC model is a statistically robust tool for classifying risk of death and accurately predicting 30-day outcomes with relatively lower prediction errors. Day-7 AARC score > 12 may be used as a futility criterion in APASL-ACLF patients.

Effectiveness of sepsis bundle application and outcomes predictors to cirrhotic patients with septic shock

Introduction

Cirrhotic patients with septic shock have a poorer prognosis compared with the general population. Our study aimed to investigate the survival benefit of the implementation of hour-1 bundle proposed by Surviving Sepsis Campaign, and to analyze the predictors associated with short-term mortality of these patients.

Methods

A single-center, retrospective case-control study was conducted among adult patients who visited the emergency department between January 1, 2018 and December 31, 2019. All patients with a diagnosis of liver cirrhosis and septic shock were enrolled. Their baseline characteristics, laboratory results, source of sepsis, and sepsis bundle management were recorded. We further divided the patients into survivor and non-survivor groups to identify independent prognostic factors.

Results

A total of 88 patients were eligible for this study. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 53.4% (47/88). The proportion of hour-1 bundle achievement was 30.7% (27/88). There were no significant mortality differences between the hour-1 bundle achievement and non-achievement groups (44.4% vs. 57.4%, p = 0.35). Compared with the patients in the survivor group, patients in the non-survivor group had significantly more advanced stage of cirrhosis and a lower proportion of receiving source control (4.3% vs. 22.0%, p = 0.02). The chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] =1.52, p < 0.01), serum lactate (AHR =1.03, p < 0.01), and source control (AHR =0.54, p = 0.02) were identified as independent prognostic factors in the multivariate regression model. Furthermore, the CLIF-SOFA score (area under curve [AUC]: 0.81) and lactate levels (AUC: 0.77) revealed good mortality discrimination ability in cirrhotic patients with septic shock.

Conclusions

The application of the hour-1 bundle did not reveal a significant survival benefit to cirrhotic patients with septic shock. Clinicians could utilize CLIF-SOFA scores and lactate levels for mortality risk stratification and put more emphasis on the feasibility of source control to improve their prognosis.

Admission Serum Bicarbonate Predicts Adverse Clinical Outcomes in Hospitalized Cirrhotic Patients

A low serum bicarbonate (SB) level is predictive of adverse outcomes in kidney injury, infection, and aging. Because the liver plays an important role in acid-base homeostasis and lactic acid metabolism, we speculated that such a relationship would exist for patients with cirrhosis. To assess the prognostic value of admission SB on adverse hospital outcomes, clinical characteristics were extracted and analyzed from a large electronic health record system. Patients were categorized based on admission SB (mEq/L) into 7 groups based on the reference range (22-25) into mildly (18-21), moderately (14-17), and severely (<14) decreased groups and mildly (26-29), moderately (30-33), and severely (>30) increased groups, and the relationship of SB category with the frequency of complications (acute kidney injury/hepatorenal syndrome, portosystemic encephalopathy, gastrointestinal bleeding, ascites, and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis) and hospital metrics (length of stay [LOS], admission to an intensive care unit [ICU], and mortality) was assessed. A total of 2,693 patients were analyzed. Mean SB was 22.9 ± 4.5 mEq/L. SB was within the normal range (22-25 mEq/L) in 1,072 (39.8%) patients, and 955 patients (36%) had a low SB. As the SB category decreased, the incidence of complications progressively increased (p < 0.001). Increased MELD-Na score and low serum albumin also correlated with frequency of complications (p < 0.001). As the SB category decreased, LOS, ICU admission, and mortality progressively increased (p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, the association of decreased SB with higher odds of complications, LOS, ICU admission, and mortality persisted. Conclusion. Low admission SB in patients with cirrhosis is associated with cirrhotic complications, longer LOS, increased ICU admissions, and increased hospital mortality.

Lactate and Bilirubin Index: A New Indicator to Predict Critically Ill Cirrhotic Patients’ Prognosis

Objectives. We aimed to perform external validation of the prognostic value of the lactate and bilirubin (LB) index, a new indicator, and compare the ability of the LB index and other scoring systems to predict both short- and long-term mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients. Materials and Methods. A number of 479 cirrhotic patients admitted into ICU were included in our research. We measured prognostic scores in the first 24 hours including LB index, Child–Pugh, SOFA, CLIF-SOFA, and MELD scores. The LB index was calculated as follows: ln [1000 × lactate (mmol/L) × bilirubin (µmol/L)]/2. The primary outcomes were 28-day and 3-year all-cause mortality. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the independent association between the LB index and the mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to assess the prediction accuracy of short- and long-term mortality of the clinical score. Calibration of the score was evaluated by Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for significance. Results. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that the LB index (odds ratio: 5.487, 95% confidence interval: 3.542–8.501, $P<0.001$ ) was the strongest predictor for 28-day mortality. The LB index gave the highest area under the curve (0.791, 95% confidence interval: 0.747–0.836) in predicting 28-day mortality. For predicting 3-year mortality, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score showed better discrimination ability with an area under the curve of 0.726 (95% confidence interval: 0.680–0.771). The risk of mortality significantly increased when the clinical scores were ≥ the optimal cutoff values. Conclusions. The LB index, a simple prognostic indicator, performs well in predicting critically ill cirrhotic patients’ short-term prognosis, while, for long-term prognosis, the MELD score is more appropriate.

The Predictive Role of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Lactate and Lactate Clearance for In-Hospital Mortality Among a National Cirrhosis Cohort

The burden of cirrhosis hospitalizations is increasing. The admission Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-lactate (MELD-lactate) was recently demonstrated to be a superior predictor of in-hospital mortality compared with MELD in limited cohorts. We identified specific classes of hospitalizations where MELD-lactate may be especially useful and evaluated the predictive role of lactate clearance. This was a retrospective cohort study of 1036 cirrhosis hospitalizations for gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, or other portal hypertension-related indications in the Veterans Health Administration where MELD-lactate was measured on admission. Performance characteristics for in-hospital mortality were compared between MELD-lactate and MELD/MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), with stratified analyses of MELD categories (≤15, >15 to <25, ≥25) and reason for admission. We also incorporated day 3 lactate levels into modeling and tested for an interaction between day 1 MELD-lactate and day 3 lactate clearance. MELD-lactate had superior discrimination for in-hospital mortality compared with MELD or MELD-Na (area under the curve [AUC] 0.789 versus 0.776 versus 0.760, respectively; P < 0.001) and superior calibration. MELD-lactate had higher discrimination among hospitalizations with MELD ≤15 (AUC 0.763 versus 0.608 for MELD, global P = 0.01) and hospitalizations for infection (AUC 0.791 versus 0.674 for MELD, global P < 0.001). We found a significant interaction between day 1 MELD-lactate and day 3 lactate clearance; heat maps were created as clinical tools to risk-stratify patients based on these clinical data. MELD-lactate had significantly superior performance in predicting in-hospital mortality among patients hospitalized for infection and/or with MELD ≤15 when compared with MELD or MELD-Na. Incorporating day 3 lactate clearance may further improve prognostication.