The predicted impact of vaccination on human papillomavirus infections in Australia

Benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of cervical screening, triage and treatment strategies for women in the general population

In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched a strategy to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To support the strategy, the WHO published updated cervical screening guidelines in 2021. To inform this update, we used an established modeling platform, Policy1-Cervix, to evaluate the impact of seven primary screening scenarios across 78 low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) for the general population of women. Assuming 70% coverage, we found that primary human papillomavirus (HPV) screening approaches were the most effective and cost-effective, reducing cervical cancer age-standardized mortality rates by 63-67% when offered every 5 years. Strategies involving triaging women before treatment (with 16/18 genotyping, cytology, visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) or colposcopy) had close-to-similar effectiveness to HPV screening without triage and fewer pre-cancer treatments. Screening with VIA or cytology every 3 years was less effective and less cost-effective than HPV screening every 5 years. Furthermore, VIA generated more than double the number of pre-cancer treatments compared to HPV. In conclusion, primary HPV screening is the most effective, cost-effective and efficient cervical screening option in LMICs. These findings have directly informed WHO's updated cervical screening guidelines for the general population of women, which recommend primary HPV screening in a screen-and-treat or screen-triage-and-treat approach, starting from age 30 years with screening every 5 years or 10 years.

Could HPV Testing on Self-collected Samples Be Routinely Used in an Organized Cervical Screening Program? A Modeled Analysis

BACKGROUND

Cervical screening on self-collected samples has mainly been considered for targeted use in underscreened women. Updated evidence supports equivalent sensitivity of PCR-based human papillomavirus (HPV) testing on self-collected and clinician-collected samples.

METHODS

Using a well-established model, we compared the lifetime impact on cancer diagnoses and deaths resulting from cervical screening using self-collected samples only, with and without the existing restriction in Australia to women aged 30+ years and ≥2 years overdue, compared with the mainstream program of 5-yearly HPV screening on clinician-collected samples starting at 25 years of age. We conservatively assumed sensitivity of HPV testing on self-collected relative to clinician-collected samples was 0.98. Outcomes were estimated either in the context of HPV vaccination ("routinely vaccinated cohorts;" uptake as in Australia) or in the absence of HPV vaccination ("unvaccinated cohorts").

RESULTS

In unvaccinated cohorts, the health benefits of increased participation from self-collection outweighed the worst case (2%) loss of relative test sensitivity even if only 15% of women, who would not otherwise attend, used it ("additional uptake"). In routinely vaccinated cohorts, population-wide self-collection could be marginally (0.2%-1.0%) less effective at 15% additional uptake but 6.2% to 12.4% more effective at 50% additional uptake. Most (56.6%-65.0%) of the loss in effectiveness in the restricted self-collection pathway in Australia results from the requirement to be 2 or more years overdue.

CONCLUSIONS

Even under pessimistic assumptions, any potential loss in test sensitivity from self-collection is likely outweighed by improved program effectiveness resulting from feasible levels of increased uptake.

IMPACT

Consideration could be given to offering self-collection more widely, potentially as an equal choice for women.See related commentary by Lim, p. 245.

Impact of HPV vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

The WHO Director-General has issued a call for action to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To help inform global efforts, we modelled potential human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical screening scenarios in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) to examine the feasibility and timing of elimination at different thresholds, and to estimate the number of cervical cancer cases averted on the path to elimination.

METHODS

The WHO Cervical Cancer Elimination Modelling Consortium (CCEMC), which consists of three independent transmission-dynamic models identified by WHO according to predefined criteria, projected reductions in cervical cancer incidence over time in 78 LMICs for three standardised base-case scenarios: girls-only vaccination; girls-only vaccination and once-lifetime screening; and girls-only vaccination and twice-lifetime screening. Girls were vaccinated at age 9 years (with a catch-up to age 14 years), assuming 90% coverage and 100% lifetime protection against HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58. Cervical screening involved HPV testing once or twice per lifetime at ages 35 years and 45 years, with uptake increasing from 45% (2023) to 90% (2045 onwards). The elimination thresholds examined were an average age-standardised cervical cancer incidence of four or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years and ten or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, and an 85% or greater reduction in incidence. Sensitivity analyses were done, varying vaccination and screening strategies and assumptions. We summarised results using the median (range) of model predictions.

FINDINGS

Girls-only HPV vaccination was predicted to reduce the median age-standardised cervical cancer incidence in LMICs from 19·8 (range 19·4-19·8) to 2·1 (2·0-2·6) cases per 100 000 women-years over the next century (89·4% [86·2-90·1] reduction), and to avert 61·0 million (60·5-63·0) cases during this period. Adding twice-lifetime screening reduced the incidence to 0·7 (0·6-1·6) cases per 100 000 women-years (96·7% [91·3-96·7] reduction) and averted an extra 12·1 million (9·5-13·7) cases. Girls-only vaccination was predicted to result in elimination in 60% (58-65) of LMICs based on the threshold of four or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, in 99% (89-100) of LMICs based on the threshold of ten or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, and in 87% (37-99) of LMICs based on the 85% or greater reduction threshold. When adding twice-lifetime screening, 100% (71-100) of LMICs reached elimination for all three thresholds. In regions in which all countries can achieve cervical cancer elimination with girls-only vaccination, elimination could occur between 2059 and 2102, depending on the threshold and region. Introducing twice-lifetime screening accelerated elimination by 11-31 years. Long-term vaccine protection was required for elimination.

INTERPRETATION

Predictions were consistent across our three models and suggest that high HPV vaccination coverage of girls can lead to cervical cancer elimination in most LMICs by the end of the century. Screening with high uptake will expedite reductions and will be necessary to eliminate cervical cancer in countries with the highest burden.

FUNDING

WHO, UNDP, UN Population Fund, UNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Program of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction, Canadian Institute of Health Research, Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Compute Canada, National Health and Medical Research Council Australia Centre for Research Excellence in Cervical Cancer Control.

Correlates of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination and Association with HPV-16 and HPV-18 DNA Detection in Young Women

Background: Despite a reduction in the prevalence of vaccine-preventable types of human papillomavirus (HPV), attributed to increased HPV vaccine uptake, HPV continues to be a major cause of cancer in the United States. Methods: We assessed factors associated with self-reported HPV vaccine uptake, HPV vaccination effectiveness, using DNA testing to assess HPV types 16 and/or 18 (HPV 16/18) positivity, and patterns of HPV vaccination in 375 women aged 21-29 years who were eligible to receive catch-up vaccination, using baseline data collected from March 2012 to December 2014 from a randomized controlled trial evaluating a novel approach to cervical cancer screening. Results: More than half (n = 228, 60.8%) of participants reported receipt of at least one HPV vaccine dose and 16 (4.3%) tested positive for HPV 16/18 at baseline. College-educated participants were four times more likely to have been vaccinated than those reporting high school education or less. 56.5% of HPV-vaccinated participants reported first dose after age 18 and 68.4% after first vaginal intercourse. Women vaccinated after age 18 and women vaccinated after first vaginal intercourse were somewhat more likely to be infected with HPV 16/18 infection compared with women vaccinated earlier, but these associations did not reach statistical significance. Conclusions: HPV vaccination is common among college-educated women in the catch-up population but less common among those without college education. Contrary to current guidelines, catch-up females frequently obtain HPV vaccination after age 18 and first vaginal intercourse. Women without a college education represent an ideal population for targeted HPV vaccination efforts that emphasize vaccination before sexual debut.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination strategies for adolescent girls and boys in the UK

BACKGROUND

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most widespread sexually transmitted infection worldwide. It causes several health consequences, in particular accounting for the majority of cervical cancer cases in women. In the United Kingdom, a vaccination campaign targeting 12-year-old girls started in 2008; this campaign has been successful, with high uptake and reduced HPV prevalence observed in vaccinated cohorts. Recently, attention has focused on vaccinating both sexes, due to HPV-related diseases in males (particularly for high-risk men who have sex with men) and an equity argument over equalising levels of protection.

METHODS

We constructed an epidemiological model for HPV transmission in the UK, accounting for nine of the most common HPV strains. We complemented this with an economic model to determine the likely health outcomes (healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years) for individuals from the epidemiological model. We then tested vaccination with the three HPV vaccines currently available, vaccinating either girls alone or both sexes. For each strategy we calculated the threshold price per vaccine dose, i.e. the maximum amount paid for the added health benefits of vaccination to be worth the cost of each vaccine dose. We calculated results at 3.5% discounting, and also 1.5%, to consider the long-term health effects of HPV infection.

RESULTS

At 3.5% discounting, continuing to vaccinate girls remains highly cost-effective compared to halting vaccination, with threshold dose prices of £56-£108. Vaccination of girls and boys is less cost-effective (£25-£53). Compared to vaccinating girls only, adding boys to the programme is not cost-effective, with negative threshold prices (-£6 to -£3) due to the costs of administration. All threshold prices increase when using 1.5% discounting, and adding boys becomes cost-effective (£36-£47). These results are contingent on the UK's high vaccine uptake; for lower uptake rates, adding boys (at the same uptake rate) becomes more cost effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccinating girls is extremely cost-effective compared with no vaccination, vaccinating both sexes is less so. Adding boys to an already successful girls-only programme has a low cost-effectiveness, as males have high protection through herd immunity. If future health effects are weighted more heavily, threshold prices increase and vaccination becomes cost-effective.

Human papillomavirus vaccination and the role of herd effects in future cancer control planning: a review

INTRODUCTION

Vaccine herd effects are the indirect protection that vaccinated persons provide to those who remain susceptible to infection, due to the reduced transmission of infections. Herd effects have been an important part of the discourse on how to best implement human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines and prevent HPV-related diseases.

AREAS COVERED

In this paper, we review the theory of HPV vaccine herd effects derived from mathematical models, give an account of observed HPV vaccine herd effects worldwide, and examine the implications of vaccine herd effects for future cervical cancer screening efforts.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

HPV vaccine herd effects improve the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating preadolescent girls, but contribute to making gender-neutral vaccination less economically efficient. Vaccination coverage and sexual mixing patterns by age are strong determinants of herd effects. Many countries worldwide are starting to observe reductions in HPV-related outcomes likely attributable to herd effects, most notably declining anogenital warts in young men, and declining HPV-16/18 infection prevalence in young unvaccinated women. Policy makers making recommendations for cervical cancer screening will have to consider HPV vaccination coverage and herd effects, as these will affect the positive predictive value of screening and the risk of cervical cancer in unvaccinated women.

Optimal Management Strategies for Primary HPV Testing for Cervical Screening: Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation for the National Cervical Screening Program in Australia

BACKGROUND

Several countries are implementing a transition to HPV testing for cervical screening in response to the introduction of HPV vaccination and evidence indicating that HPV screening is more effective than cytology. In Australia, a 2017 transition from 2-yearly conventional cytology in 18-20 to 69 years to 5-yearly primary HPV screening in 25 to 74 years will involve partial genotyping for HPV 16/18 with direct referral to colposcopy for this higher risk group. The objective of this study was to determine the optimal management of women positive for other high-risk HPV types (not 16/18) ('OHR HPV').

METHODS

We used a dynamic model of HPV transmission, vaccination, natural history and cervical screening to determine the optimal management of women positive for OHR HPV. We assumed cytology triage testing was used to inform management in this group and that those with high-grade cytology would be referred to colposcopy and those with negative cytology would receive 12-month surveillance. For those with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology (considered to be a single low-grade category in Australia incorporating ASC-US and LSIL), we evaluated (1) the 20-year risk of invasive cervical cancer assuming this group are referred for 12-month follow-up vs. colposcopy, and compared this to the risk in women with low-grade cytology under the current program (i.e. an accepted benchmark risk for 12-month follow-up in Australia); (2) the population-level impact of the whole program, assuming this group are referred to 12-month surveillance vs. colposcopy; and (3) the cost-effectiveness of immediate colposcopy compared to 12-month follow-up. Evaluation was performed both for HPV-unvaccinated cohorts and cohorts offered vaccination (coverage ~72%).

FINDINGS

The estimated 20-year risk of cervical cancer is ≤1.0% at all ages if this group are referred to colposcopy vs. ≤1.2% if followed-up in 12 months, both of which are lower than the ≤2.6% benchmark risk in women with low-grade cytology in the current program (who are returned for 12-month follow-up). At the population level, immediate colposcopy referral provides an incremental 1-3% reduction in cervical cancer incidence and mortality compared with 12-month follow-up, but this is in the context of a predicted 24-36% reduction associated with the new HPV screening program compared to the current cytology-based program. Furthermore, immediate colposcopy substantially increases the predicted number of colposcopies, with >650 additional colposcopies required to avert each additional case of cervical cancer compared to 12-month follow-up. Compared to 12-month follow-up, immediate colposcopy has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of A$104,600/LYS (95%CrI:A$100,100-109,100) in unvaccinated women and A$117,100/LYS (95%CrI:A$112,300-122,000) in cohorts offered vaccination [Indicative willingness-to-pay threshold: A$50,000/LYS].

CONCLUSIONS

In primary HPV screening programs, partial genotyping for HPV16/18 or high-grade triage cytology in OHR HPV positive women can be used to refer the highest risk group to colposcopy, but 12-month follow-up for women with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology is associated with a low risk of developing cervical cancer. Direct referral to colposcopy for this group would be associated with a substantial increase in colposcopy referrals and the associated harms, and is also cost-ineffective; thus, 12-month surveillance for women with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology provides the best balance between benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness.

Effectiveness Modelling and Economic Evaluation of Primary HPV Screening for Cervical Cancer Prevention in New Zealand

Background

New Zealand (NZ) is considering transitioning from 3-yearly cervical cytology screening in women 20–69 years (current practice) to primary HPV screening. We evaluated HPV-based screening in both HPV-unvaccinated women and cohorts offered HPV vaccination in New Zealand (vaccination coverage ~50%).

Methods

A complex model of HPV transmission, vaccination, cervical screening, and invasive cervical cancer was extensively validated against national population-based datasets. Sixteen potential strategies for HPV screening were considered.

Results

Most primary HPV strategies were more effective than current practice, for both unvaccinated women and cohorts offered vaccination. The optimal strategy for both groups was 5-yearly HPV screening in women aged 25–69 years with partial genotyping for HPV 16/18 and referral to colposcopy, and cytological triage of other oncogenic types. This is predicted to reduce cervical cancer incidence and mortality by a further 12–16% and to save 4–13% annually in program costs (excluding overheads). The findings are sensitive to assumptions about future adherence to initiating screening at 25 years.

Conclusion

Primary HPV screening with partial genotyping would be more effective and less costly than the current cytology-based screening program, in both unvaccinated women and cohorts offered vaccination. These findings have been considered in a review of cervical screening in NZ.

Transitioning from cytology-based screening to HPV-based screening at longer intervals: implications for resource use

Background

Following a recent major review of cervical screening, from 2017 Australia will transition from two-yearly cytology-based screening to five-yearly primary HPV screening, with partial genotyping and direct referral for HPV 16/18 and LBC triage for other oncogenic types. Switching to a longer screening interval will result in transitional fluctuations for volumes of tests before a 'steady state' is reached for the new test volumes. This study aimed to quantify the impact of this transition on year-to-year volumes of screening and follow-up tests and procedures.

Methods

Number of women screened and test volumes from 2015 to 2032 were estimated via a detailed simulation model which explicitly modelled varying screening and HPV vaccination exposure in individual birth cohorts, and fully incorporated how a relatively rapid screening program switch in 2017 would affect both women attending for routine screening and those in surveillance following an abnormality.

Results

Numbers of women screened and HPV tests are predicted to fluctuate in the first screening rounds as a result of the transition to a longer screening interval (mean women screened and HPV tests 1.4 million in the first 5-year period, year-to-year fluctuation > +/−50 %; mean 1.5 million women/HPV tests in third 5-year period, fluctuation approximately +/−25 %). The extent to which this fluctuation was predicted to carry through to secondary tests/procedures was less (fluctuations of +25 %/-31 % in first 5-year period; decreasing to +8 %/-10 % by third round). HPV vaccination is predicted to counteract increases in high grade cytology results, colposcopies and precancer treatments which would otherwise occur due to population increases. Precancer treatments are predicted to drop below 2015 levels within the first few years of program switchover. Mean colposcopy volumes are predicted to be similar to 2015 levels by the third round of HPV-based screening, and also be 25–40 % lower than would have occurred in the absence of HPV vaccination.

Conclusions

While numbers of women attending for screening and HPV tests are anticipated to initially fluctuate as a result of the transition to a longer recommended interval, there is expected to be less fluctuation in follow-up tests and procedures; however these will still have a significant impact on operational aspects of the screening program. Detailed modelling of the switchover process gave important insights into how volumes would be affected.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12913-016-1375-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

HPV.edu study protocol: a cluster randomised controlled evaluation of education, decisional support and logistical strategies in school-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of adolescents

Background

The National Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccination Program in Australia commenced in 2007 for females and in 2013 for males, using the quadrivalent HPV vaccine (HPV 6,11,16,18). Thus far, we have demonstrated very substantial reductions in genital warts and in the prevalence of HPV among young Australian women, providing early evidence for the success of this public health initiative. Australia has a long history of school-based vaccination programs for adolescents, with comparatively high coverage. However, it is not clear what factors promote success in a school vaccination program. The HPV.edu study aims to examine: 1) student knowledge about HPV vaccination; 2) psycho-social outcomes and 3) vaccination uptake.

Methods/Design

HPV.edu is a cluster randomised trial of a complex intervention in schools aiming to recruit 40 schools with year-8 enrolments above 100 students (approximately 4400 students). The schools will be stratified by Government, Catholic, and Independent sectors and geographical location, with up to 20 schools recruited in each of two states, Western Australia (WA) and South Australia (SA), and randomly allocated to intervention or control (usual practice). Intervention schools will receive the complex intervention which includes an adolescent intervention (education and distraction); a decisional support tool for parents and adolescents and logistical strategies (consent form returns strategies, in-school mop-up vaccination and vaccination-day guidelines). Careful process evaluation including an embedded qualitative evaluation will be undertaken to explore in depth possible mechanisms for any observed effect of the intervention on primary and secondary outcomes.

Discussion

This study is the first to evaluate the relative effectiveness of various strategies to promote best practice in school-based vaccination against HPV. The study aims to improve vaccination-related psychosocial outcomes, including adolescent knowledge and attitudes, decision-making involvement, self-efficacy, and to reduce fear and anxiety. The study also aims to improve school vaccination program logistics including reduction in time spent vaccinating adolescents and increased number of consent forms returned (regardless of decision). Less anxiety in adolescents will likely promote more efficient vaccination, which will be more acceptable to teachers, nurses and parents. Through these interventions, it is hoped that vaccination uptake will be increased.

Trial registration

Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12614000404628, 14.04.2014.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-015-2168-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Factors related to vaccine uptake by young adult women in the catch-up phase of the National HPV Vaccination Program in Australia: Results from an observational study

BACKGROUND

Australia commenced a publically-funded, National Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccination Program in 2007 with a two year catch-up phase for females aged 12-26 years.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the factors associated with the uptake of the HPV vaccine (which has a recommended 3-dose schedule in Australia) by young adult women vaccinated by general practitioners and community-based programs within the catch-up phase.

METHODS

1139 women who were eligible to receive the free HPV vaccine during the catch-up period were recruited in 2008-2009 (age 20-29 years at recruitment), in New South Wales, after having a normal (negative) cervical smear result recorded on the NSW Pap Test Register. Participants completed a self-administered questionnaire providing information on vaccination status, and sociodemographic and other factors.

RESULTS

Overall, 880 (77%) women reported receiving ≥ 1 dose of the vaccine and 777 women (68%) reported receiving ≥ 2 doses. In multivariable analysis (adjusting for the period for which each woman was eligible for free HPV vaccination), uptake of ≥ 1 dose of the vaccine was significantly associated with being born in Australia (p < 0.01), being single (p = 0.02), being nulliparous (p < 0.01), living in a higher socioeconomic status area (p-trend = 0.03), living in more remote areas (p = 0.03), drinking alcohol (p < 0.01) and using hormonal contraceptives (p < 0.01). Although vaccinated women were more likely to have fewer sexual partners than unvaccinated women (p-trend = 0.02), they were also more likely to report a prior sexually transmitted infection (STI) (p = 0.03). Similar factors were associated with receiving ≥ 2 doses.

CONCLUSIONS

In this group, women living in higher socioeconomic status areas were more likely to be vaccinated against HPV in the catch-up phase of the national program. Although vaccinated women tended to have fewer sexual partners, they also reported prior STIs, which may be a marker of increased risk of prior exposure to HPV. The findings of this study reinforce the continuing need to prioritise equitable delivery of vaccination to various population subgroups.

Incremental benefits of male HPV vaccination: accounting for inequality in population uptake

BACKGROUND

Vaccines against HPV16/18 are approved for use in females and males but most countries currently have female-only programs. Cultural and geographic factors associated with HPV vaccine uptake might also influence sexual partner choice; this might impact post-vaccination outcomes. Our aims were to examine the population-level impact of adding males to HPV vaccination programs if factors influencing vaccine uptake also influence partner choice, and additionally to quantify how this changes the post-vaccination distribution of disease between subgroups, using incident infections as the outcome measure.

METHODS

A dynamic model simulated vaccination of pre-adolescents in two scenarios: 1) vaccine uptake was correlated with factors which also affect sexual partner choice ("correlated"); 2) vaccine uptake was unrelated to these factors ("unrelated"). Coverage and degree of heterogeneity in uptake were informed by observed data from Australia and the USA. Population impact was examined via the effect on incident HPV16 infections. The rate ratio for post-vaccination incident HPV16 in the lowest compared to the highest coverage subgroup (RR(L)) was calculated to quantify between-group differences in outcomes.

RESULTS

The population-level incremental impact of adding males was lower if vaccine uptake was "correlated", however the difference in population-level impact was extremely small (<1%) in the Australia and USA scenarios, even under the conservative and extreme assumption that subgroups according to coverage did not mix at all sexually. At the subgroup level, "correlated" female-only vaccination resulted in RR(L)= 1.9 (Australia) and 1.5 (USA) in females, and RR(L)= 1.5 and 1.3 in males. "Correlated" both-sex vaccination increased RR(L) to 4.2 and 2.1 in females and 3.9 and 2.0 in males in the Australia and USA scenarios respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The population-level incremental impact of male vaccination is unlikely to be substantially impacted by feasible levels of heterogeneity in uptake. However, these findings emphasize the continuing importance of prioritizing high coverage across all groups in HPV vaccination programs in terms of achieving equality of outcomes.

Impact of HPV immunization on the detection of cervical disease

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the primary cause of cervical cancer and genital warts. The development of HPV vaccines has been a major advance in the prevention of these diseases. Recent studies have shown promising early effects of HPV immunization programs on cervical abnormalities and genital warts, with evidence of herd immunity against genital warts also emerging in Australia. Further studies are required to not only continue monitoring the effect of the HPV immunization on the incidence of these diseases, but also to establish the effect the immunization will have on cervical screening programs and the performance of colposcopy.

Testing previous model predictions against new data on human papillomavirus vaccination program outcomes

BACKGROUND

Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), predominantly targeting young females, has been introduced in many countries. Decisions to implement programs, which have involved substantial investment by governments, have in part been based on findings from cost-effectiveness models. Now that vaccination programs have been in place for some years, it is becoming possible to observe their effects, and compare these with model effectiveness predictions made previously.

FINDINGS

Australia introduced a publicly-funded HPV vaccination program in 2007. Recently reported Australian data from a repeat cross-sectional survey showed a substantial (77%) fall in HPV16 prevalence in women aged 18-24 years in 2010-2011, compared to pre-vaccination levels. We have previously published model predictions for the population-wide reduction in incident HPV16 infections post-vaccination in Australia. We compared prior predictions from the same model (including the same assumed uptake rates) for the reduction in HPV16 prevalence in women aged 18-24 years by the end of 2010 with the observed data. Based on modelled vaccine uptake which is consistent with recent data on three-dose uptake (78% at 12-13 years; lower uptake in older catch-up age cohorts), we had predicted a 70% reduction in prevalence in 18-24 year old females by the end of 2010. Based on modelled vaccine uptake consistent with recent national data for two-dose coverage and similar to that reported by women in the cross-sectional study, we had predicted a 79% reduction.

CONCLUSIONS

A close correspondence was observed between the prior model predictions and the recently reported findings on the rapid drop in HPV prevalence in Australia. Because broadly similar effectiveness predictions have been reported from other models used for cost-effectiveness predictions, this provides reassurance that the substantial public investment in HPV vaccination has been grounded in valid estimates of the effects of vaccination.

Quantifying the impact of dissimilar HPV vaccination uptake among Manitoban school girls by ethnicity using a transmission dynamic model

BACKGROUND

Gardasil, a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, began among grade 6 girls in Manitoba, Canada in 2008. In Manitoba, there is evidence that First Nations, Métis, and Inuit women (FNMI) have higher HPV prevalence, lower invasive cervical cancer (ICC) screening, and higher ICC incidence than all other Manitoban (AOM) women. We developed a mathematical model to assess the plausible impact of unequal vaccination coverage among school girls on future cervical cancer incidence.

METHODS

We fit model estimated HPV prevalence and ICC incidence to corresponding empirical estimates. We used the fitted model to evaluate the impact of varying levels of vaccination uptake by FNMI status on future ICC incidence, assuming cervical screening uptake among FNMI and AOM women remained unchanged.

RESULTS

Depending on vaccination coverage, estimated ICC incidence by 2059 ranged from 15% to 68% lower than if there were no vaccination. The level of cross-ethnic sexual mixing influenced the impact that vaccination rates among FNMI has on ICC incidence among AOM, and vice versa. The same level of AOM vaccination could result in ICC incidence that differs by up to 10%, depending on the level of FNMI vaccination. Similarly, the same level of FNMI vaccination could result in ICC incidence that differs by almost 40%, depending on the level of AOM vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

If we are unable to equalize vaccination uptake among all school girls, policy makers should prepare for higher levels of cervical cancer than would occur under equal vaccination uptake.

Primary prophylactic human papillomavirus vaccination programs: future perspective on global impact

Of the 40 types of human papillomavirus that can infect the mucosal epithelium, four types can now be prevented using prophylactic vaccination. Two of these types (high-risk types 16 and 18) cause 70% of cervical cancers, a proportion of other genital cancers and a subset of head and neck cancers. The low-risk types 6 and 11 cause 90% of genital warts and the disease recurrent respiratory papillomatosis. Thus, if primary HPV vaccination programs can be implemented effectively, the potential for a reduction in global disease burden is great. This article considers the current issues and challenges in delivering primary HPV vaccination programs effectively and the likely impact of the vaccines in both the near and more distant future.

Expenditure and resource utilisation for cervical screening in Australia

Background

The National Cervical Screening Program in Australia currently recommends that women aged 18–69 years are screened with conventional cytology every 2 years. Publicly funded HPV vaccination was introduced in 2007, and partly as a consequence, a renewal of the screening program that includes a review of screening recommendations has recently been announced. This study aimed to provide a baseline for such a review by quantifying screening program resource utilisation and costs in 2010.

Methods

A detailed model of current cervical screening practice in Australia was constructed and we used data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry to model age-specific compliance with screening and follow-up. We applied model-derived rate estimates to the 2010 Australian female population to calculate costs and numbers of colposcopies, biopsies, treatments for precancer and cervical cancers in that year, assuming that the numbers of these procedures were not yet substantially impacted by vaccination.

Results

The total cost of the screening program in 2010 (excluding administrative program overheads) was estimated to be A$194.8M. We estimated that a total of 1.7 million primary screening smears costing $96.7M were conducted, a further 188,900 smears costing $10.9M were conducted to follow-up low grade abnormalities, 70,900 colposcopy and 34,100 histological evaluations together costing $21.2M were conducted, and about 18,900 treatments for precancerous lesions were performed (including retreatments), associated with a cost of $45.5M for treatment and post-treatment follow-up. We also estimated that $20.5M was spent on work-up and treatment for approximately 761 women diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer. Overall, an estimated $23 was spent in 2010 for each adult woman in Australia on cervical screening program-related activities.

Conclusions

Approximately half of the total cost of the screening program is spent on delivery of primary screening tests; but the introduction of HPV vaccination, new technologies, increasing the interval and changing the age range of screening is expected to have a substantial impact on this expenditure, as well as having some impact on follow-up and management costs. These estimates provide a benchmark for future assessment of the impact of changes to screening program recommendations to the costs of cervical screening in Australia.

A revision of sexual mixing matrices in models of sexually transmitted infection

Two sexual mixing matrices previously used in models of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are intended to calculate the probability of sexual interaction between age groups and sexual behaviour subgroups. When these matrices are used to specify multiple criteria for how people select sexual partners (such as age group and sexual behaviour class), their conditional probability structure means that they have in practice been prone to misuse. We constructed revised mixing matrices that incorporate a corrected conditional probability structure and then used one of them to examine the effect of this revision on population modelling of STIs. Using a dynamic model of human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission as an example, we examined changes to estimates of HPV prevalence and the relative reduction in age-standardised HPV incidence after the commencement of publicly funded HPV vaccination in Australia. When all other model specifications were left unchanged, the revised mixing matrix initially led to estimates of age-specific oncogenic HPV prevalence that were up to 11% higher than our previous models at certain ages. After re-calibrating the model by modifying unobservable parameters characterising HPV natural history, the revised mixing matrix yielded similar estimates to our previous models, predicting that vaccination would lead to relative HPV incidence reductions of 43% and 85% by 2010 and 2050, respectively, compared with 43% and 86% using the unrevised mixing matrix formulation. Our revised mixing matrix offers a rigorous alternative to commonly used mixing matrices, which can be used to reliably and explicitly accommodate conditional probabilities, with appropriate re-calibration of unobservable model parameters.

The burden of hospitalizations for anus and penis neoplasm in Spain (1997-2008)

An epidemiological retrospective study has been performed to assess the burden of hospitalization by anus and penis neoplasm in the general population in Spain. All hospital discharges and deaths related to anal malign neoplasm and penile malign neoplasm from 1997 to 2008 in Spain were obtained. A total of 19,608 hospital admissions were recorded during the study period: 11,965 were related to anal malign neoplasm (4,992 in women and 6,973 in men) and 7,643 to penis malignant neoplasm. This corresponds to a hospitalization rate of 1.97 (CI 95%: 1.91-2.02) hospitalizations per 100,000 women/ year, 2.84 (CI 95%: 2.77-2.91) hospitalizations per 100,000 men/ year and 3.11 (CI 95%: 3.04- 3.18) hospitalizations per 100,000 men/ year, respectively during the study period.   The hospitalization rate increased significantly during the study period in all locations. It also increased significantly with age for all locations. Hospitalization and mortality rates in men were 50% higher than in women A total of 530 deaths related to penis malignant neoplasm and 738 deaths related to anus malignant neoplasm in men and 488 in women were reported during the 12-y study period. Although a decrease in smoking prevalence has led to a decrease in the incidence of cancers in the last decade, the hospitalizations due to anal and penile malign neoplasm have not declined in our study. This might be attributed to a high prevalence of HPV infection in these particular genital malign neoplasms.

Disparities in human papillomavirus vaccine completion among vaccine initiators

OBJECTIVE

To estimate rates of completing the full three-dose prophylactic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination regimen in patients who initiated the series and to identify variables associated with not completing vaccination.

METHODS

This single-institution review identified all patients initiating HPV vaccination at one of four affiliated clinics between January 2007 and June 2008. Vaccination "completers" were defined as patients who had completed all three vaccinations within 12 months of initiating the vaccination series. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with vaccine completion. Variables analyzed included age, type of insurance (private compared with public), practice location (urban compared with suburban), practice type (pediatrics, gynecology, or family practice), and race or ethnicity (white or African American and Hispanic).

RESULTS

Of the 1,413 girls and young women who initiated HPV vaccination, 469 (33.2%) completed the vaccine series. Overall, private insurances (odds ratio 1.87, 95% confidence interval 1.26-2.76) and suburban practice locations (odds ratio 1.44, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.98) were associated with higher vaccine completion rates. African American race was associated with lower completion rates (odds ratio 0.50, 95% confidence interval 0.38-0.65). In multivariable analyses, the combination of younger age (11-17 years) and urban practice location was associated with very low likelihood of completing HPV vaccination (22%; P=.023).

CONCLUSION

The HPV vaccine completion rate is low. When resources are limited, disparities in HPV vaccine completion should be considered when developing programs to improve vaccine utilization. Urban girls and young women should be targeted as an at-risk population.

Quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) types 6, 11, 16, 18 vaccine: for the prevention of genital warts in males

The quadrivalent HPV types 6, 11, 16, 18 vaccine (Gardasil®) is a recombinant vaccine comprising purified virus-like particles derived from the L1 capsid proteins of HPV types 6, 11, 16 and 18. The vaccine was highly immunogenic. Geometric mean titres (GMTs) and seroconversion rates for all four HPV types at month 7 in males aged 10-15 years were noninferior to those in females aged 16-23 years, and those in males aged 9-15 years were noninferior to those in females aged 9-15 years. In addition, GMTs and seroconversion rates in males aged 16-26 years receiving the vaccine were higher than those receiving amorphous aluminium hydroxyphosphate sulfate adjuvant (AAHS) control. The quadrivalent HPV vaccine was significantly more effective than AAHS control at decreasing the incidence of HPV 6-, 11-, 16- or 18-related external genital lesions (primary endpoint) in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre study in males aged 16-26 years. The most common clinical endpoint was HPV 6- and 11-related condyloma; efficacy was robust against these lesions. The vaccine is also expected to be protective against genital warts in males aged 9-15 years, as the immune response in males of this age group was noninferior to that in males aged 16-26 years. The quadrivalent HPV vaccine was generally well tolerated in males aged 9-26 years. The most common adverse events reported were injection-site related, and most of these were of mild to moderate severity.

Early effect of the HPV vaccination programme on cervical abnormalities in Victoria, Australia: an ecological study

BACKGROUND

Australia introduced a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme with the quadrivalent HPV vaccine for all women aged 12-26 years between 2007 and 2009. We analysed trends in cervical abnormalities in women in Victoria, Australia, before and after introduction of the vaccination programme.

METHODS

With data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry between 2003 and 2009, we compared the incidence of histopathologically defined high-grade cervical abnormalities (HGAs, lesions coded as cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 or worse or adenocarcinoma in situ; primary outcome) and low-grade cytological abnormalities (LGAs) in five age groups before (Jan 1, 2003, to March 31, 2007) and after (April 1, 2007, to Dec 31, 2009) the vaccination programme began. Binary comparisons between the two periods were done with Fisher's exact test. Poisson piecewise regression analysis was used to compare incident rate trends.

FINDINGS

After the introduction of the vaccination programme, we recorded a decrease in the incidence of HGAs by 0·38% (95% CI 0·61-0·16) in girls younger than 18 years. This decrease was progressive and significantly different to the linear trend in incidence before introduction of the vaccination (incident rate ratio 1·14, 1·00-1·30, p=0·05). No similar temporal decline was recorded for LGAs or in older age groups.

INTERPRETATION

This is the first report of a decrease in incidence of HGAs within 3 years after the implementation of a population-wide HPV vaccination programme. Linkage between vaccination and screening registers is needed to confirm that this ecological observation is attributable to vaccination and to monitor participation in screening among vaccinated women.

FUNDING

None.

Evaluation of primary HPV-DNA testing in relation to visual inspection methods for cervical cancer screening in rural China: an epidemiologic and cost-effectiveness modelling study

Background

A new lower-cost rapid-throughput human papillomavirus (HPV) test (careHPV, Qiagen, Gaithersburg, USA) has been shown to have high sensitivity for the detection of high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia.

Methods

We assessed the outcomes and cost-effectiveness of careHPV screening in rural China, compared to visual inspection with acetic acid, when used alone (VIA) or in combination with Lugol's iodine (VIA/VILI). Using data on sexual behaviour, test accuracy, diagnostic practices and costs from studies performed in rural China, we estimated the cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) and associated lifetime outcomes for once-lifetime and twice-lifetime screening strategies, and for routine screening at 5-yearly, 10-yearly and IARC-recommended intervals. The optimal age range for once-lifetime screening was also assessed.

Results

For all strategies, the relative ordering of test technologies in reducing cervical cancer incidence and mortality was VIA (least effective); VIA/VILI; careHPV@1.0 pg/ml and careHPV@0.5 pg/ml (most effective). For once-lifetime strategies, maximum effectiveness was achieved if screening occurred between 35-50 years. Assuming a participation rate of ~70%, once-lifetime screening at age 35 years would reduce cancer mortality by 8% (for VIA) to 12% (for careHPV@0.5) over the long term, with a CER of US$557 (for VIA) to $959 (for careHPV@1.0) per life year saved (LYS) compared to no intervention; referenced to a 2008 GDP per capita in Shanxi Province of $2,975. Correspondingly, regular screening with an age-standardised participation rate of 62% (which has been shown to be achievable in this setting) would reduce cervical cancer mortality by 19-28% (for 10-yearly screening) to 43-54% (using IARC-recommended intervals), with corresponding CERs ranging from $665 (for 10-yearly VIA) to $2,269 (for IARC-recommended intervals using careHPV@1.0) per LYS.

Conclusions

This modelled analysis suggests that primary careHPV screening compares favourably to visual inspection screening methodologies in rural China, particularly if used as part of a regular screening program.

The predicted impact of HPV vaccination on male infections and male HPV-related cancers in Australia

Australia implemented a National HPV Vaccination Program in 2007, with routine vaccination of 12-13 year old females and catch-up in females aged 13-26 years to 2009. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of the current female-only national vaccination program on males, and then to estimate the incremental benefits to males from being included in the program. We used preliminary data to estimate vaccination coverage in females. We then fitted a dynamic model of sexual behaviour and HPV transmission in Australia to local data on female pre-vaccination age-specific HPV prevalence, predicted the corresponding pre-vaccination prevalence in males due to heterosexual transmission, and modelled the short and long term impact of female-only versus female-and-male vaccination programs. The estimated 3-dose female coverage rates were 78% (range 70-80%) for ongoing coverage in 12-13 year old girls; and from 74% (range 70-80%) in 14 year olds, to 25% (range 15-35%) for women aged 26 years old in 2007. The median estimate for age-standardised pre-vaccination HPV 16 prevalence in females and males aged 15-59 years was 3.2% (95% range: 2.4-4.1%) and 3.1% (95% range: 2.2-4.2%), respectively. The current program in females is predicted to result in a 68% reduction in male HPV 16 infections by 2050, leading to an estimated long term reduction of 14% in rates of cancers of the head, neck and anogenital area. The estimated proportion of the maximum possible vaccine-conferred benefit to males from a female-and-male program which will be achieved by female-only vaccination is 73% (range in probabilistic sensitivity analysis: 53-78%). In conclusion, up to three-quarters of the maximum possible vaccination-conferred benefit to males due to reduced heterosexual transmission will be achieved by the existing female-only program.

Cytology and cervical cancer surveillance in an era of human papillomavirus vaccination

Cytological and cancer surveillance will provide the most effective indications of short-term effects and long-term outcomes of the introduction of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in Australia. This article outlines how this surveillance is proposed to occur through the established national monitoring mechanisms of the National Cervical Screening Program in the annual Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) publication 'Cervical screening in Australia'. Cytological surveillance will be possible principally through cytology data provided annually by the state and territory cervical cytology registers, and it is expected that these data will provide the earliest and most comprehensive indications of effects from the HPV vaccine. Some potential issues in interpreting these data are also discussed, including the potentially confounding effects of the introduction of new National Health and Medical Research Council guidelines 'Screening to prevent cervical cancer: guidelines for the management of asymptomatic women with screen-detected abnormalities' some 9 months before the introduction of the vaccine. Cancer surveillance over the long term will be possible using cervical cancer incidence data reported annually for the National Cervical Screening Program in 'Cervical screening in Australia' using data sourced from the Australian Cancer Database. In a final discourse, the HPV vaccine and cervical screening are discussed concurrently, and the importance of continued cervical screening in the HPV vaccine era emphasised.

Cervical cancer screening in Australia: modelled evaluation of the impact of changing the recommended interval from two to three years

Background

The National Cervical Screening Program in Australia currently recommends that sexually active women between the ages of 18-70 years attend routine screening every 2 years. The publically funded National HPV Vaccination Program commenced in 2007, with catch-up in females aged 12-26 years conducted until 2009; and this may prompt consideration of whether the screening interval and other aspects of the organized screening program could be reviewed. The aim of the current evaluation was to assess the epidemiologic outcomes and cost implications of changing the recommended screening interval in Australia to 3 years.

Methods

We used a modelling approach to evaluate the effects of moving to a 3-yearly recommended screening interval. We used data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry over the period 1997-2007 to model compliance with routine screening under current practice, and registry data from other countries with 3-yearly recommendations to inform assumptions about future screening behaviour under two alternative systems for screening organisation - retention of a reminder-based system (as in New Zealand), or a move to a call-and-recall system (as in England).

Results

A 3-yearly recommendation is predicted to be of similar effectiveness to the current 2-yearly recommendation, resulting in no substantial change to the total number of incident cervical cancer cases or cancer deaths, or to the estimated 0.68% average cumulative lifetime risk of cervical cancer in unvaccinated Australian women. However, a 3-yearly screening policy would be associated with decreases in the annual number of colposcopy and biopsy procedures performed (by 4-10%) and decreases in the number of treatments for pre-invasive lesions (by 2-4%). The magnitude of the decrease in the number of diagnostic procedures and treatments would depend on the method of screening organization, with call-and-recall screening associated with the highest reductions. The cost savings are predicted to be of the order of A$10-18 M annually, equivalent to 6-11% of the total cost of the current program (excluding overheads), with call-and-recall being associated with the greatest savings.

Conclusions

Lengthening the recommended screening interval to 3 years in Australia is not predicted to result in increases in rates of cervical cancer and is predicted to decrease the number of women undergoing diagnostic and treatment procedures. These findings are consistent with a large body of international evidence showing that screening more frequently than every three years with cervical cytology does not result in substantial gains in screening effectiveness.

Models of cervical screening in the era of human papillomavirus vaccination

Epidemiologic and economic evaluation using simulation modelling can support complex policy decisions, and is an important tool in predicting the future interaction between human papillomavirus vaccination and cervical screening. Several categories of screening program evaluation are of interest, including: (1) changes to screening considered over the short term, over which the effects of vaccination should be confined to the youngest age groups (<30 years old); (2) the medium and long-term effect of vaccination on the screening program; and (3) changes to screening in context of vaccination. This review considers some of the policy questions in each category and discusses the modelling implications, with particular focus on the Australian context.

The burden of non-communicable diseases in South Africa

15 years after its first democratic election, South Africa is in the midst of a profound health transition that is characterised by a quadruple burden of communicable, non-communicable, perinatal and maternal, and injury-related disorders. Non-communicable diseases are emerging in both rural and urban areas, most prominently in poor people living in urban settings, and are resulting in increasing pressure on acute and chronic health-care services. Major factors include demographic change leading to a rise in the proportion of people older than 60 years, despite the negative effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy. The burden of these diseases will probably increase as the roll-out of antiretroviral therapy takes effect and reduces mortality from HIV/AIDS. The scale of the challenge posed by the combined and growing burden of HIV/AIDS and non-communicable diseases demands an extraordinary response that South Africa is well able to provide. Concerted action is needed to strengthen the district-based primary health-care system, to integrate the care of chronic diseases and management of risk factors, to develop a national surveillance system, and to apply interventions of proven cost-effectiveness in the primary and secondary prevention of such diseases within populations and health services. We urge the launching of a national initiative to establish sites of service excellence in urban and rural settings throughout South Africa to trial, assess, and implement integrated care interventions for chronic infectious and non-communicable diseases.

An analysis of temporal and generational trends in the incidence of anal and other HPV-related cancers in Southeast England

Patients diagnosed in 1960-2004 with cancer of the cervix, anus, vulva, vagina or penis were identified from the Thames Cancer Registry database, and age-standardised period (temporal) incidence rates calculated by direct standardisation. Age-cohort modelling techniques were used to estimate age-specific incidence rates in the earlier and later cohorts, enabling the calculation of age-standardised cohort (generational) rates. Incidence of anal cancer increased for both men and women over the period studied, mainly in those born from 1940 onwards. Similar generational patterns were seen for cancers of the vulva and vagina, but those for penile cancer were different. For cervix cancer, the steep downward trend in cohort rates due to screening levelled off in women born from 1940 onwards. Our findings are compatible with the hypothesis that changes in sexual practices were a major contributor to the increases of these cancers. Programmes of vaccination against HPV, aimed at reducing the burden of cervical cancer, may also help to reduce the incidence of cancer at other anogenital sites.