A novel predictor of severe dengue: The aspartate aminotransferase/platelet count ratio index (APRI)

Aspartate Aminotransferase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) as a Novel Score in Early Detection of Complicated Dengue Fever

Introduction

The occurrence of dengue fever presents a considerable burden for public health care in developing countries. This study aims to validate APRI as predictor score for severity of dengue fever so that catastrophic events could be prevented, and early triage can save lives.

Methods

The retrospective cross-sectional study was done on dengue positive patients from August to November 2023. APRI score was calculated for every patient at the time of admission. The primary end-point was non-complicated disease (Simple dengue fever) vs complicated disease (dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome). ROC curve was used to identify the role of APRI in prediction of dengue complication. Youden index was used to find the cut-off value of APRI along with sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios. To further evaluate the role of APRI score, patients were divided into two groups, patients with APRI score greater and lesser than cut-off value. The qualitative variables among two groups were compared by chi-square testing. The predictors of complicated dengue were first determined by univariate regression analysis and then confirmed by multivariate regression analysis.

Results

The mean APRI score of 135 patients was 20.06 ± 6.31. AUC for APRI score was 0.93 (p < 0.0001) indicating that APRI score calculated at the time of admission is an excellent marker in determining the complicated dengue. The cut-off value for APRI score was 9.04 (sensitivity 84.91%, specificity 89.02%, p < 0.0001). The patients with APRI <9.04 mostly developed simple dengue fever (54.1%) vs DHF (4.4%) and DSS (1.5%), while patients with APRI >9.04 had more DHF (20.7%) and DSS (12.6%) vs simple dengue fever (6.7%). None of the patient died with APRI <9.04 while the mortality rate was 3.7% in patients with APRI >9.04.

Conclusion

The APRI score, calculated at the time of admission, is an excellent marker in determining the severe dengue.

APRI as a predictor of severe dengue fever

Introduction

The AST/platelet ratio index (APRI) is a well-researched indicator of liver fibrosis. Some studies have shown that APRI can be used as a predictor of severe dengue, but the data is limited. As dengue epidemics are common in our country with limited healthcare resources, we believe APRI can help emergency physicians/primary physicians in predicting the severity of dengue and plan for the appropriate use of limited healthcare resources.

Objective

1) To determine the utility of APRI as a predictor of severe dengue. 2) To determine the association of APRI with length of hospital stay and platelet requirement.

Materials and Methods

A retrospective cross-sectional study was done on patients presented to the Emergency Medicine department at Travancore Medicity Medical College with a positive Dengue NS1 antigen or IgM antibody.

Results

We found from the univariate analysis results that ALT > 74.5 IU/L has a sensitivity of 59.6 and a specificity of 76.3 (AUC: 0.696; 95% CI: 0.606-0.786), AST > 160.5 IU/L has a sensitivity of 42.3 and a specificity of 93.7 (AUC: 0.747; 95% CI: 0.665-0.829), and APRI > 3.2 has a sensitivity of 69.2 and a specificity of 84.2 (AUC: 0.806; 95% CI: 0.72-0.884) to predict severe dengue. Patients with an APRI of >3.2 required a mean hospital stay of 5.47 days (P = 0.005); 27 (81.8%) requiring platelet transfusion had an APRI of > 3.2 (P = 0.00).

Conclusion

APRI is a straightforward index that can be easily derived from AST and platelet values. APRI values of >3.2 can predict severe dengue with a sensitivity of 69.2 and a specificity of 84.2. APRI values of >3.2 are also associated with the length of hospital stay and requirement of platelet transfusion.

Aspartate Aminotransferase/Platelet Ratio Index Upon Admission Predicts 24-Week Mortality in Patients With HIV-Associated Talaromyces marneffei

Background

A high aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index (APRI) predicts mortality in patients with severe infection. This study aims to assess the potential of APRI as a predictor for mortality in patients with HIV-associated Talaromyces marneffei (HTM).

Methods

Associations between APRI and CD4 count, white blood cell count, C-reactive protein (CRP) level, procalcitonin (PCT) level, and cytokines were assessed in 119 patients. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to predict APRI on 24-week mortality.

Results

APRI was positively associated with CRP (r = 0.190, P = .039), PCT (r = 0.220, P = .018), interleukin 6 (r = 0.723, P < .001), interleukin 10 (r = 0.416, P = .006), and tumor necrosis factor α (r = 0.575, P < .001) and negatively associated with CD4 count (r = -0.234, P = .011). In total, 20.2% (24/119) of patients died within the 24-week follow-up. The 24-week survival rate was 88.0% for patients with APRI <5.6% and 61.1% for those with APRI ≥5.6 (log-rank P < .001). After adjustment for sex, age, body mass index, and CD4 count, as well as serum levels of hemoglobin, APRI ≥5.6 (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI]; 3.0 [1.2-7.1], P = .015), PCT ≥1.7 ng/mL (3.7 [1.5-9.6], P = .006), and non-amphotericin B deoxycholate treatment (2.8 [1.2-6.6], P = .018) were independent risk factors for 24-week mortality.

Conclusions

For patients with HTM, APRI is associated with severity and is an independent risk factor for 24-week mortality.

Routine blood parameters of dengue infected children and adults. A meta-analysis

The World Health Organization (WHO) has revised dengue case classification in 2009 to better reflect the severity of the disease. However, there was no comprehensive meta-analysis of pooled routine blood parameters according to the age or the categories of the 2009 WHO classification. This study aimed to meta-analyze the routine blood parameters of dengue infected children and adults. Electronic search was performed with eligible articles included for review. Meta-analysis was conducted for six blood parameters stratified into children, adults and all ages, which were further grouped into the three 2009 WHO case classifications (dengue without warning signs, DwoWS; dengue with warning signs, DwWS; severe dengue, SD), non-severe dengue (non-SD) and 'All' cases. A total of 55 articles were included in the meta-analysis. Fifteen studies were conducted in the children's age category, 31 studies in the adult category and nine studies in all ages. The four selected pooled blood parameters for children were white blood cell (WBC) (×103/L) with 5.11 (SD), 5.64 (DwWS), 5.52 (DwoWS) and 4.68 (Non-SD) hematocrit (HCT) (%) with 36.78 (SD), 40.70 (DwWS), 35.00 (DwoWS) and 29.78 (Non-SD) platelet (PLT) (×103/µL) with 78.66 (SD), 108.01 (DwWS), 153.47 (DwoWS) and 108.29 (non-SD); and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (/µL) with 248.88 (SD), 170.83 (DwWS), 83.24 (DwoWS) and 102.99 (non-SD). For adult, WBC were 4.96 (SD), 6.44 (DwWS), 7.74 (DwoWS) and 3.61 (non-SD); HCT were 39.50 (SD), 39.00 (DwWS), 37.45 (DwoWS) and 41.68 (non-SD); PLT were 49.62 (SD), 96.60 (DwWS), 114.37 (DwoWS) and 71.13 (non-SD); and AST were 399.50 (SD), 141.01 (DwWS), 96.19 (DwoWS) and 118.13 (non-SD). These blood parameters could not differentiate between each dengue severity according to the WHO 2009 classification, SD, DwoWS, DwWS and non-SD, because the timing of blood drawing was not known and there was an overlapping confidence interval among the clinical classification. Hence, these pooled blood parameter values could not be used to guide clinicians in management and did not correlate with severity as in previous scientific literatures and guidelines.

Clinical predictors of severe dengue: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Severe dengue is a life-threatening complication; rapid identification of these cases, followed by adequate management is crucial to improve the clinical prognosis. Therefore, this study aimed to identify risk factors and predictors of severe dengue.

Methods

A literature search for studies reporting risk factors of severe dengue among individuals with dengue virus infection was conducted in PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science database from inception to December 31, 2020. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) for patients’ demographic characteristics, co-morbidities, and warning signs were estimated using an inverse variance heterogeneity model.

Results

We included 143 articles in the meta-analysis from a total of 13 090 articles retrieved from the literature search. The risk factors of severe dengue were: being a child [OR = 1.96; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.22–3.13], secondary infection (OR = 3.23; 95% CI: 2.28–4.57), and patients with pre-existing diabetes (OR = 2.88; 95% CI: 1.72–4.81) and renal disease (OR = 4.54; 95% CI: 1.55–13.31). Warning signs strongly associated with severe disease were increased haematocrit with a concurrent decrease in platelet count (OR = 5.13; 95% CI: 1.61–16.34), abdominal pain (OR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.49–2.68), lethargy (OR = 2.73; 95% CI: 1.05–7.10), vomiting (OR = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.43–2.26), hepatomegaly (OR = 5.92; 95% CI: 3.29–10.66), ascites (OR = 6.30; 95% CI: 3.75–10.60), pleural effusion (OR = 5.72; 95% CI: 3.24–10.10) and melena (OR = 4.05; 95% CI: 1.64–10.00).

Conclusions

Our meta-analysis identified children, secondary infection, diabetes and renal disease(s) as important predictors of severe dengue. Our finding also supports the predictive ability of the WHO warning signs to identify severe dengue. These findings are useful for clinicians to identify severe dengue for management and timely interventions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-021-00908-2.

Dengue models based on machine learning techniques: A systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Dengue modeling is a research topic that has increased in recent years. Early prediction and decision-making are key factors to control dengue. This Systematic Literature Review (SLR) analyzes three modeling approaches of dengue: diagnostic, epidemic, intervention. These approaches require models of prediction, prescription and optimization. This SLR establishes the state-of-the-art in dengue modeling, using machine learning, in the last years.

METHODS

Several databases were selected to search the articles. The selection was made based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology. Sixty-four articles were obtained and analyzed to describe their strengths and limitations. Finally, challenges and opportunities for research on machine-learning for dengue modeling were identified.

RESULTS

Logistic regression was the most used modeling approach for the diagnosis of dengue (59.1%). The analysis of the epidemic approach showed that linear regression (17.4%) is the most used technique within the spatial analysis. Finally, the most used intervention modeling is General Linear Model with 70%.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that cause-effect models may improve diagnosis and understanding of dengue. Models that manage uncertainty can also be helpful, because of low data-quality in healthcare. Finally, decentralization of data, using federated learning, may decrease computational costs and allow model building without compromising data security.

Different Profiles of Cytokines, Chemokines and Coagulation Mediators Associated with Severity in Brazilian Patients Infected with Dengue Virus

The incidence of dengue in Latin America has increased dramatically during the last decade. Understanding the pathogenic mechanisms in dengue is crucial for the identification of biomarkers for the triage of patients. We aimed to characterize the profile of cytokines (IFN-γ, TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-18 and IL-10), chemokines (CXCL8/IL-8, CCL2/MCP-1 and CXCL10/IP-10) and coagulation mediators (Fibrinogen, D-dimer, Tissue factor-TF, Tissue factor pathway inhibitor-TFPI and Thrombomodulin) during the dengue-4 epidemic in Brazil. Laboratory-confirmed dengue cases had higher levels of TNF-α (p < 0.001), IL-6 (p = 0.005), IL-10 (p < 0.001), IL-18 (p = 0.001), CXCL8/IL-8 (p < 0.001), CCL2/MCP-1 (p < 0.001), CXCL10/IP-10 (p = 0.001), fibrinogen (p = 0.037), D-dimer (p = 0.01) and TFPI (p = 0.042) and lower levels of TF (p = 0.042) compared to healthy controls. A principal component analysis (PCA) distinguished between two profiles of mediators of inflammation and coagulation: protective (TNF-α, IL-1β and CXCL8/IL-8) and pathological (IL-6, TF and TFPI). Lastly, multivariate logistic regression analysis identified high aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) as independent risk factors associated with severity (adjusted OR: 1.33; 95% CI 1.03–1.71; p = 0.027), the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was 0.775 (95% CI 0.681–0.869) and an optimal cutoff value was 1.4 (sensitivity: 76%; specificity: 79%), so it could be a useful marker for the triage of patients attending primary care centers.

Clinical signs and symptoms associated with WHO severe dengue classification: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The World Health Organization (WHO) introduced the new dengue classification in 2009. We aimed to assess the association of clinical signs and symptoms with WHO severe dengue classification in clinical practice. A systematic literature search was performed using the databases of PubMed, Embase, and Scopus between 2009 and 2018 according to PRISMA guideline. Meta-analysis was performed with the RevMan software. A random or fixed-effect model was applied to pool odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals of important signs and symptoms across studies. Thirty nine articles from 1790 records were included in this review. In our meta-analysis, signs and symptoms associated with higher risk of severe dengue were comorbidity, vomiting, persistent vomiting, abdominal pain or tenderness, pleural effusion, ascites, epistaxis, gum bleeding, GI bleeding, skin bleeding, lethargy or restlessness, hepatomegaly (>2 cm), increased HCT with decreased platelets, shock, dyspnea, impaired consciousness, thrombocytopenia, elevated AST and ALT, gall bladder wall thickening and secondary infection. This review shows new factors comorbidity, epistaxis, GI and skin bleeding, dyspnea, gall bladder wall thickening and secondary infection may be useful to refine the 2009 classification to triage severe dengue patients.

Predictive values of biochemical markers as early indicators for severe COVID-19 cases in admission

Aim: COVID-19 is a pandemic that causes high morbidity and mortality, especially in severe patients. In this study, we aimed to search and explain the relationship between biochemical markers, which are more common, easily available and applicable to diagnose and to stage the disease. Materials & methods: In this study, 609 patients were evaluated retrospectively. 11 biochemical parameters were included in analysis to explain the relationship with severity of disease. Results: Nearly, all the parameters that have been evaluated in this study were statistically valuable as a predictive parameter for severe disease. Areas under the curve of blood urea nitrogen (BUN)/albumin ratio (BAR), CALL score and lymphocyte/C-reactive protein ratio were 0.795, 0.778 and 0.770. The BAR and neutrophil/albumin ratios provide important prognostic information for decision-making in severe patients with COVID-19. Conclusion: High BAR and neutrophil/albumin ratios may be a better predictor of severity COVID-19 than other routinely used parameters in admission.

The aspartate aminotransferase/platelet count ratio index as a marker of dengue virus infection: Course of illness

BACKGROUND

The usefulness of laboratory tests in the decision-making process with regard to early identification of dengue virus infection has not been widely reported, particularly the aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/platelet count ratio index during a patient's days of illness. The aim of this study was to examine the pattern of the ratio index over the course of illness and identify whether it is a marker of dengue virus infection in dengue patients, as well as to assess the role of other laboratory tests.

METHODS

A chart review of 205 dengue patients was analyzed using available records of 845 laboratory results within different time intervals or exam dates during the course of illness. We used repeated measures mixed binary logistic regression analyses to model the dengue virus infection, defined as giving at least one positive antibody test (yes/no).

RESULTS

The high risk of dengue virus infection in dengue patients was found in the male gender (adjusted OR=4.316, 95% CI: 1.285-14.498, P=0.018), in patients with a high AST/platelet count ratio index (adjusted OR=1.438, 95% CI: 1.057-1.957, P=0.021), in patients with a low MCV level (adjusted OR=0.815, 95% CI: 0.679-0.978, P=0.028), and in patients with a low ALT level (adjusted OR=0.996, 95% CI: 0.993-0.999, P=0.010).

CONCLUSION

Laboratory markers, in particular the AST/platelet count ratio index, can be useful for clinicians to strengthen the decision-making process in primary care settings. Furthermore, our model revealed that low MCV and low ALT are predictors of the dengue virus infection, while being a male increases the risk of dengue virus infection. More studies are needed to evaluate the impact of the AST/platelet count ratio index on the severity of dengue fever infection during the onset of symptoms and course of treatment.

Severe dengue and liver involvement: an overview and review of the literature

Introduction: Two billion population are at risk of dengue fever and by 2080, over six billion population will be at risk. Hepatitis is common in dengue and the liver is invariably involved in severe cases. We conducted a literature review using the PubMed database on articles covering a broad range of issues related to dengue and hepatitis.Areas covered: This article overviews available literature on changes in the definition of severe dengue, pathogenesis of liver involvement in dengue, clinical manifestations, and predictors of mortality in severe dengue with liver involvement, impact of viral hepatitis co-infections and hepatotoxic drugs, and hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis.Expert commentary: Hepatitis is commonly seen in dengue however the degree of elevation of transaminases did not correlate well with severity of illness in observational studies, except in the elderly. The underlying pathogenesis of liver injury is still being elucidated and further studies are required to fully understand the cellular pathways. Acute or chronic viral hepatitis does not appear to affect dengue outcomes. Commonly used medications such as paracetamol and statins may influence dengue outcomes.

Trajectories of hepatic and coagulation dysfunctions related to a rapidly fatal outcome among hospitalized patients with dengue fever in Tainan, 2015

Background

Hepatic dysfunction and coagulopathy are common in acute dengue illness. We analyzed the trajectories of the above parameters in the survivors and fatal patients in the outbreak in Tainan, 2015.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted using data from a tertiary hospital between January and December 2015. Multilevel modeling (MLM) was used to identify the changes in aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), and platelet counts from Day 0 to Day 7 of the onset of dengue infection. The machine-learning algorithm was used by purity measure assumption to calculate the accuracy of serum transaminases and coagulation variables to discriminate between the fatal and survival groups.

Results

There were 4,069 dengue patients, of which 0.9% died in one week after illness onset (i.e., early mortality). Case fatality rate was the highest for those aged ≥70 years. Both AST and ALT values of the fatal group were significantly higher than those of the survivor group from Day 3 (AST median, 624 U/L vs. 60 U/L, p < 0.001; ALT median, 116 U/L vs. 29 U/L, p = 0.01) of illness onset and peaked on Day 6 (AST median, 9805 U/L vs. 90 U/L, p < 0.001; ALT median, 1504 U/L vs. 49 U/L, p < 0.001). AST ≥ 203 U/L, ALT ≥ 55 U/L, AST²/ALT criteria ≥337.35, or AST/platelet count ratio index (APRI) ≥ 19.18 on Day 3 of dengue infection had a high true positive rate, 90%, 78%, 100%, or 100%, respectively, of early mortality. The platelet counts of the fatal group declined significantly than those of the survivor group since Day 3 of illness onset (median, 19 x10³/μl vs. 91 x10³/μl, p < 0.01), and aPTT values of the fatal group significantly prolonged longer since Day 5 (median, 68.7 seconds vs. 40.1 seconds, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

AST, ALT, and platelet counts should be monitored closely from Day 0 to Day 3 of dengue infection, and aPTT be followed up on Day 5 of infection to identify the individuals at risk for early mortality.

Dengue fever (DF) is currently one of the most severe public health problems. Clinical presentations of dengue are diverse and non-specific, often with unpredictable clinical progression and outcome. Hepatic dysfunction and abnormal coagulation factors are common in acute dengue illness, reflected by abnormal alanine aminotransferase (AST), aspartate aminotransferase (ALT), activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), and platelet counts. However, there is no information available about the monitoring frequency required, which could help identify those dengue patients who are likely to die, especially during epidemic outbreaks with limited healthcare resources. We examined all the laboratory-confirmed dengue patients who admitted to the major tertiary hospital in Tainan during the 2015 dengue outbreak, and the different trajectories of hepatic function and coagulation factors between survivors and rapidly fatal dengue patients were analyzed. Although there were no differences in AST, ALT, aPTT, and platelet counts between the survivor and fatal groups on the day DF symptoms first appeared, the differences increased from the early stages of infection and became more prominent during the early stages of the illness. The necessity of monitoring the AST, ALT, aPTT, and platelet count frequently during the febrile phase is emphasized by this study.

Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI): A potential marker for diagnosis in patients at risk of severe malaria caused by Plasmodium vivax

Acute infection with Plasmodium vivax, classically associated with benign disease, has been presenting as serious and even fatal disease in recent years. Severe disease is mainly due to biochemical and hematological alterations during the acute phase of infection. In the present cross-sectional study, the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) was evaluated as a method for identifying patients at risk of severe vivax malaria. This retrospective study included 130 patients with confirmed P. vivax infection between June 2006 and January 2018. Clinical-epidemiological data were obtained from medical records. Hematological and biochemical parameters were determined using automated equipment. The criteria of severity for infection by Plasmodium falciparum, established by the World Health Organization (WHO), were adapted to classify patients with danger signs of severe vivax malaria. Of the 130 patient’s records evaluated, 19 (14.6%) had one or more signs and symptoms of severe malaria. The mean APRI values among patients with and without severe malaria were 2.11 and 1.09, respectively (p = 0.044). Among those with severe disease, the proportion with an APRI value above 1.50 was 30% compared to the 10% among those without severe disease (p = 0.007). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI), calculated to assess the accuracy of the APRI in discriminating between patients with and without severe disease, was 0.645 (0.494; 0.795). An APRI cutoff of 0.74 resulted in sensitivity of 74.0%, specificity of 56.0%, and accuracy of 65.0%. This study shows that the APRI is elevated in patients with evidence of infection by P. vivax. Based on the good sensitivity found in this study, we conclude that this simple index can serve as a diagnostic biomarker to identify patients at risk of severe disease during the acute phase of P. vivax infection.

Risk prediction for severe disease and better diagnostic accuracy in early dengue infection; the Colombo dengue study

Background

A major challenge in dengue management in resource limited settings is the confirmation of diagnosis. Clinical features of dengue often overlap with other infections and molecular diagnostic tools are not readily accessible to clinicians at hospitals. In addition, the prediction of plasma leakage in dengue is also difficult. Hematocrit level and ultrasound scans (combined with clinical parameters) are helpful to detect plasma leakage once it has happened, not before.

Methods

Colombo Dengue Study (CDS) is a prospective cohort study of clinically suspected adult dengue patients recruited from the National hospital of Sri Lanka (within the first 3 days of fever) that aimed to a) identify clinical and basic laboratory test parameters to differentiate dengue from non-dengue fever, b) evaluate the comparative efficacy of loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) for dengue diagnosis (vs. NS1 antigen test and RT-qPCR) and c) identify early associations that are predictive of plasma leakage or severe dengue. The basic laboratory tests considered here included hematological parameters, serum biochemistry and inflammatory markers.

Results

Only 70% of clinically suspected patients were confirmed as having dengue by either the NS1 antigen test or RT-qPCR. On a Bayesian latent class model which assumes no “gold standard”, LAMP performed equally or better than RT-qPCR and NS1 antigen test respectively. When confirmed dengue patients were compared with others, the earlier group had significantly lower lymphocyte counts and higher aspartate aminotransferase levels (AST) within the first 3 days of fever. Confirmed dengue patients with plasma leakage had a lower mean age and a higher median baseline AST level compared to those without plasma leakage (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

Clinical suspicion overestimates the true number of dengue patients. RT-LAMP is a potentially useful low-cost diagnostic tool for dengue diagnosis. Confirmed dengue patients had significantly higher AST levels and lower lymphocyte counts in early disease compared to others. In confirmed dengue patients, younger age and a higher AST level in early infection were associated with subsequent plasma leakage.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4304-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.