Prognostic significance of neoadjuvant rectal score in locally advanced rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and construction of a prediction model

Modified neoadjuvant rectal score as a novel prognostic model for rectal cancer patients who underwent chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND

The neoadjuvant rectal score (NAR score) has recently been proposed as a better prognostic model than the conventional TNM classification for rectal cancer patients that have undergone neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. We recently developed an apoptosis-detection technique for assessing the viability of residual tumors in resected specimens after chemoradiotherapy. This study aimed to establish an improved prognostic classification by combining the NAR score and the assessment of the apoptosis of residual cancer cells.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 319 rectal cancer patients who underwent chemoradiotherapy followed by radical surgery. The recurrence-free survival and overall survival of the four models were compared: TNM stage, NAR score, modified TNM stage by re-staging according to cancer cell viability, and modified NAR score also by re-staging.

RESULTS

Downstaging of the ypT stage was observed in 15.5% of cases, whereas only 4.5% showed downstaging of ypN stage. C-index was highest for the modified NAR score (0.715), followed by the modified TNM, TNM, and NAR score. Similarly, Akaike's information criterion was smallest in the modified NAR score (926.2), followed by modified TNM, TNM, and NAR score, suggesting that the modified NAR score was the best among these four models. The overall survival results were similar: C-index was the highest (0.767) and Akaike's information criterion was the smallest (383.9) for the modified NAR score among the four models tested.

CONCLUSION

We established a novel prognostic model, for rectal cancer patients that have undergone neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, using a combination of apoptosis-detecting immunohistochemistry and neoadjuvant rectal scores.

Prognostic analysis of rectal cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy: different prognostic factors in patients with different TRGs

PURPOSE

The extent of tumor regression varies widely among locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients who receive neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) followed by total mesorectal excision (TME). The purpose of this retrospectively study is to assess prognostic factors in LARC patients with NCRT, and further to analyze survival outcomes in patients with different tumor regression grades (TRGs).

METHODS

This study includes LARC patients who underwent NCRT and TME at our institution. We retrospectively analyzed the clinicopathological characteristics and survival of all patients, and performed subgroup analysis for patients with different TRGs. Survival differences were compared using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log rank test. Additionally, a multiple Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify independent prognostic factors.

RESULTS

The study included 393 patients, with 21.1%, 26.5%, 45.5%, and 6.9% achieving TRG 0, TRG 1, TRG 2, and TRG 3, respectively. The overall survival (OS) rate and disease-free survival (DFS) rate for all patients were 89.4% and 70.7%, respectively. Patients who achieved TRG 0-3 had different 5-year OS rates (96.9%, 91.1%, 85.2%, and 68.8%, P = 0.001) and 5-year DFS rates (80.8%, 72.4%, 67.0%, 55.8%, P = 0.031), respectively. Multivariate analyses showed that the neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score was an independent prognostic indicator for both overall survival (OS) (HR = 4.040, 95% CI = 1.792-9.111, P = 0.001) and disease-free survival (DFS) (HR = 1.971, 95% CI = 1.478-2.628, P ˂ 0.001). In the subgroup analyses, the NAR score was found to be associated with DFS in patients with TRG 1 and TRG 2. After conducting multivariate analysis, it was found that ypT stage was a significant predictor of DFS for TRG 1 patients (HR = 4.384, 95% CI = 1.721-11.168, P = 0.002). On the other hand, ypN stage was identified as the dominant prognostic indicator of DFS for TRG 2 patients (HR = 2.795, 95% CI = 1.535-5.091, P = 0.001). However, none of these characteristics was found to be correlated with survival in patients with TRG 0 or TRG 3.

CONCLUSION

NAR score, in particular, appears to be the most powerful prognostic factor. It is important to consider various prognostic predictors for patients with different TRGs.

Does neoadjuvant rectal score predict treatment outcomes better than the all grading systems used in neoadjuvantly treated rectal cancer?

BACKGROUND

/Objective: To compare the prognostic value of the yield pathologic (yp) stage, used 4 tumor regression grading (TRG) systems, and neoadjuvant rectal score(NARS) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) who received long-term neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT).

METHODS

Between 2005 and 2017, we included 302 patients with LARC who treated with nCRT. Postoperative pathological responses were graded by using Dworak, American Joint Committee on Cancer, Mandart, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, grading systems and NARS([5ypN-3(kT-pT)+12]2/9,61) calculations. Their results were compared in terms of treatment outcomes.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 51 months (range 5-136). There was a significant relation between cT stage and the response in used grading systems(p < 0,001). Median overall(OS), local recurrence free(LRFS), and distant metastasis free(MFS) survival rates were 50, 48, and 45 months, respectively. 5-year OS, LRFS, and MFS rates were 71%, 92%, and 72%, respectively. According to the NARS and treatment response grating systems, a significant difference was found between the low risk and high risk groups in terms of OS, LRFS, and MFS rates. While it was not seen any difference in terms of OS and MFS, NARS was found to predict LRFS better than other grading systems. In multivariate analysis, high NARS was found to be correlated with worse OS and worse MFS. On the other hand, pCR was the another important factor affecting treatment outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

While used systems except NARS group patients according to ypT status in surgical tissue, NARS add the value of ypN status in addition to ypT status. It could be suggested to use NARS to predict LRFS.

Development and validation of neoadjuvant rectal score-based signature nomograms to predict overall survival and disease-free survival in locally advanced rectal cancer: a retrospective, double center, cohort study

AIM

To evaluate the prognostic significance of the NAR score and develop nomograms for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated after neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy (nCRT) combined with total meso-rectal excision (TME) surgery to predict prognostic.

METHODS

Retrospective collection among LARC patients treated at Fujian Medical University Union Hospital (training cohort) and Fujian Medical University Affiliated Zhangzhou Hospital (external validation cohort) between Jan 10, 2011 and Dec 28, 2021. The NAR score was calculated by formula: [5pN-3(cT-pT) + 12]^2/9.61. NAR score low (< 8), intermediate (8-16), and high (> 16).

RESULTS

1665 patients in the training cohort and 256 patients in the external validation cohorts were enrolled. Lower NAR score was significantly associated with better cumulative incidence of OS, DFS, local recurrence (LR), and distant metastasis (DM) (all P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicates that NAR score, distance to the anal verge, no.253 LN metastasis, post-CRT carbohydrate antigen 19-9, tumor regression grade, and surgery method are independent predictors of OS and DFS (all P < 0.001). Among these independent factors, the NAR score had the highest area under the curve (AUC) and the nomograms to predict OS and DFS were generated. The AUCs for the accuracy of the prediction OS were 1 year = 0.742, 3 years = 0.749, 5 years = 0.713; prediction DFS were 1 year = 0.727, 3 years = 0.739, 5 years = 0.718, the models have good accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

The NAR score can effectively classify patients with LARC into groups with varying outcomes of OS, DFS, LR, and DM. Moreover, the novel nomograms comprising the NAR score were developed and validated to help predict OS and DFS.

Establishment and validation of novel MRI radiomic feature-based prognostic models to predict progression-free survival in locally advanced rectal cancer

In locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), an improved ability to predict prognosis before and after treatment is needed for individualized treatment. We aimed to utilize pre- and post-treatment clinical predictors and baseline magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomic features for establishing prognostic models to predict progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with LARC. Patients with LARC diagnosed between March 2014 and May 2016 were included in this retrospective study. A radiomic signature based on extracted MRI features and clinical prognostic models based on clinical features were constructed in the training cohort to predict 3-year PFS. C-indices were used to evaluate the predictive accuracies of the radiomic signature, clinical prognostic models, and integrated prognostic model (iPostM). In total, 166 consecutive patients were included (110 vs. 56 for training vs. validation). Eleven radiomic features were filtered out to construct the radiomic signature, which was significantly related to PFS. The MRI feature-derived radiomic signature exhibited better prognostic performance than the clinical prognostic models (P = 0.007 vs. 0.077). Then, we proposed an iPostM that combined the radiomic signature with tumor regression grade. The iPostM achieved the highest C-indices in the training and validation cohorts (0.942 and 0.752, respectively), outperforming other models in predicting PFS (all P < 0.05). Decision curve analysis and survival curves of the validation cohort verified that iPostM demonstrated the best performance and facilitated risk stratification. Therefore, iPostM provided the most reliable prognostic prediction for PFS in patients with LARC.

Prognostic value of mesorectal package area in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy: A retrospective cohort study

Background

The aim of this study is to explore the most effective inflammation, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and nutrition markers for survival and pathology complete response (pCR) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC).

Methods

A total of 278 patients with LARC undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) and radical surgery from 2016 to 2019 were included. The X-tile method was used to select the optimal cutoff points for the mesorectal package area (MPA), advanced lung cancer inflammation index (ALI), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) scores. Cox regression analysis was used to identify risk factors of disease-free survival (DFS). To discover pCR risk factors, logistic regression analysis was employed. A predictive nomogram for DFS was constructed.

Results

According to the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis, the MPA was the only significant predictor for the DFS in patients with LARC. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) analysis demonstrated that groups with higher MPA, PNI, SII, NLR, MLR, and ALI score had improved DFS (all P < 0.05). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed that the MPA and PNI could accurately predict the pCR in patients with LARC after NCRT. The MPA score and NLR score were found to be independent predictors of DFS after NCRT using Cox regression analysis. Logistical regression analysis demonstrated that the MPA score, PNI score, and pre-NCRT cN stage were all independent predictors of pCR in patients with LARC after NCRT. Recursive partitioning analysis and time-independent ROC curve analysis demonstrated that MPA score was the most important predictor of pCR and prognosis in patients with LARC after NCRT.

Conclusions

MPA was identified as the most effective marker for MRI, and the prognostic value was further confirmed by time–ROC analysis. More intense adjuvant treatment could be considered for lower–MPA score patients with LARC after NCRT. Obesity in the pelvis encourages the understanding of the prognosis prediction of patients with LARC after NCRT.

Neoadjuvant rectal score is prognostic for survival: A population-based propensity-matched analysis

INTRODUCTION

Neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score may serve as a surrogate short-term endpoint for overall survival (OS) in clinical trials. This study aims to test the NAR score using a large, national cancer registry.

METHODS

National Cancer Database patients with clinical stage II/III rectal adenocarcinoma (RAC) treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) followed by surgery were selected and divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-NAR subgroups. OS outcomes were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and logistic regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 12 452 patients were selected, of which 5071 (40.7%) were in clinical stage II and 7381 (59.3%) were in clinical stage III; 15.2% had pathologic complete response. The mean NAR score was 10.01 ± 10.61. Six thousand nine hundred and forty-one (55.7%) did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) and were propensity-matched across NAR subgroups (966 in each group). A significant difference in 5-year OS between low-, intermediate-, and high-NAR groups was observed (85% vs. 76% vs. 68%; p < 0.001). Five thousand five hundred and eleven (44.3%) received AC and 1045 triplets were propensity-matched per NAR groups. A significant difference was again observed for 5-year OS (93% vs. 88% vs. 75%; p < 0.001). Logistic regression confirmed NAR strata as a significant predictor of 5-year OS.

CONCLUSION

NAR score, as a neoadjuvant response measure, is a strong predictor of 5-year OS, regardless of AC receipt in a heterogenous population of locally advanced RAC patients.

Machine learning-based multiparametric MRI radiomics for predicting poor responders after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in rectal Cancer patients

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to investigate and validate multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based machine learning classifiers for early identification of poor responders after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC).

METHODS

Patients with LARC who underwent nCRT were included in this retrospective study (207 patients). After preprocessing of multiparametric MRI, radiomics features were extracted and four feature selection methods were used to select robust features. The selected features were used to build five machine learning classifiers, and 20 (four feature selection methods × five machine learning classifiers) predictive models for the screening of poor responders were constructed. The predictive models were evaluated according to the area under the curve (AUC), F1 score, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

RESULTS

Eighty percent of all predictive models constructed achieved an AUC of more than 0.70. A predictive model using a support vector machine classifier with the minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR) selection method followed by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) selection method showed superior prediction performance, with an AUC of 0.923, an F1 score of 88.14%, and accuracy of 91.03%. The predictive performance of the constructed models was not improved by ComBat compensation.

CONCLUSIONS

In rectal cancer patients who underwent neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, machine learning classifiers with radiomics features extracted from multiparametric MRI were able to accurately discriminate poor responders from good responders. The techniques should provide additional information to guide patient-tailored treatment.

Prognostic and Predictive Value of NAR Score in Gastric Cancer

INTRODUCTION

Neoadjuvant treatment is a widely accepted approach for locally advanced rectum cancer. Efforts to explore a surrogate endpoint for clinical trials revealed a new prognostic scoring system which is named as neoadjuvant rectal score (NAR) in patients who received neoadjuvant treatment for rectal cancer.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

88 patients who met inclusion criteria were included in the study. The optimal cutoff value of the NAR score was 17.6 with 71% sensitivity and 63% specificity. Patients with NAR score > 17.6 (n: 48, 54%) were defined as the high-risk group and those with NAR score ≤ 17.6 (n: 40, 56%) as the low-risk group.

RESULT

Survival analysis according to the NAR score group (low-risk vs high-risk) revealed that there was a statistically significant difference between groups regarding OS and DFS. The median OS for high-risk patients was 27.3 months (95% CI, 15.0-39.6); it was 76.6 months (47.3-106.0) for low-risk patients (p < 0.0001). The median DFS was 15.1 months (11.8-18.4) for high-risk patients; it was 44.3 months (95% CI, 4.1-84.6) in the low-risk group (p = 0.002).

DISCUSSION

As a result, we interpreted our findings as supporting data about the utility of NAR score not only as a surrogate endpoint for the clinical trial of rectal cancer but also as a prognostic marker in patients with gastric cancer who received neoadjuvant treatment.

The concept and use of the neoadjuvant rectal score as a composite endpoint in rectal cancer

There is no universally accepted instrument to use as a validated surrogate endpoint for overall survival in phase 2 and phase 3 multimodal rectal cancer trials using chemoradiotherapy. Efforts are hampered by the inaccuracy of clinical TNM staging, the variability of indications for neoadjuvant treatment, and diverse definitions of tumour regression grade. Pathological complete response is commonly used, but fails to capture information from the majority of patients. The neoadjuvant rectal score categorises response and downstaging from the entire trial population to identify whether or not a novel treatment group in a chemoradiation trial is superior by predicting overall survival outcomes. Additionally, the neoadjuvant rectal score assesses the difference between initial clinical and pathological T stage and the presence or absence of nodal involvement after treatment. The neoadjuvant rectal score has been conceptually, but incompletely, statistically validated by two independent trial datasets. However, a fundamental weakness of the score is that no preoperative phase 3 trials in locally advanced rectal cancer in the past 20 years have provided a significant benefit in overall survival to statistically validate the neoadjuvant rectal score as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival. We review the robustness, practical value, applicability, generalisability, advantages, and disadvantages of the neoadjuvant rectal score as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival and recommend how this score could be improved and be acceptable as a standard endpoint in studies investigating neoadjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiation in patients with rectal cancer.

Total neoadjuvant therapy vs standard therapy of locally advanced rectal cancer with high-risk factors for failure

BACKGROUND

For locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), standard therapy [consisting of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT), surgery, and adjuvant chemotherapy (ChT)] achieves excellent local control. Unfortunately, survival is still poor due to distant metastases, which remains the leading cause of death among these patients. In recent years, the concept of total neoadjuvant treatment (TNT) has been developed, whereby all systemic ChT-mainly affecting micrometastases-is applied prior to surgery.

AIM

To compare standard therapy and total neoadjuvant therapy for LARC patients with high-risk factors for failure.

METHODS

In a retrospective study, we compared LARC patients with high-risk factors for failure who were treated with standard therapy or with TNT. High-risk for failure was defined according to the presence of at least one of the following factors: T4 stage; N2 stage; positive mesorectal fascia; extramural vascular invasion; positive lateral lymph node. TNT consisted of 12 wk of induction ChT with capecitabine and oxaliplatin or folinic acid, fluorouracil and oxaliplatin, CRT with capecitabine, and 6-8 wk of consolidation ChT with capecitabine and oxaliplatin or folinic acid, fluorouracil and oxaliplatin prior to surgery. The primary endpoint was pathological complete response (pCR). In total, 72 patients treated with standard therapy and 89 patients treated with TNT were included in the analysis.

RESULTS

Compared to standard therapy, TNT showed a higher proportion of pCR (23% vs 7%; P = 0.01), a lower neoadjuvant rectal score (median: 8.43 vs 14.98; P < 0.05), higher T-and N-downstaging (70% and 94% vs 51% and 86%), equivalent R0 resection (95% vs 93%), shorter time to stoma closure (mean: 20 vs 33 wk; P < 0.05), higher compliance during systemic ChT (completed all cycles 87% vs 76%; P < 0.05), lower proportion of acute toxicity grade ≥ 3 during ChT (3% vs 14%, P < 0.05), and equivalent acute toxicity and compliance during CRT and in the postoperative period. The pCR rate in patients treated with TNT was significantly higher in patients irradiated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy/volumetric-modulated arc radiotherapy than with 3D conformal radiotherapy (32% vs 9%; P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Compared to standard therapy, TNT provides better outcome for LARC patients with high-risk factors for failure, in terms of pCR and neoadjuvant rectal score.

Neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score: Value evaluating the efficacy of neoadjuvant therapy and prognostic significance after surgery?

INTRODUCTION

The Neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score is a new surrogate endpoint to be used in clinical trials for early determination of treatment response to different preoperative therapies. The aim is to further validate the NAR-score, primarily developed using chemoradiotherapy (CRT) with a delay to surgery 6-8 weeks, and explore its value using other schedules.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study included all 9978 patients diagnosed with non-metastasized RC in 2007-2015 that had undergone surgery and was registered in the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry. The patients of interest had either short-course radiotherapy (scRT)/CRT + delayed surgery, long-course radiotherapy (RT) + delayed surgery, (C)RT + additional chemotherapy, primary surgery, or scRT + immediate surgery. The scRT/CRT + delayed surgery groups were further divided based on time to surgery.

RESULTS

Mean NAR-score differed significantly (p < 0.0001) between different treatments. (C)RT + additional chemotherapy had the lowest mean score of 16.3 and CRT + delayed surgery had 17.7. There was a significant difference (p < 0.05) in overall survival (OS) and time to recurrence (TTR) of patients with a Low NAR-score (<8) compared to those with a High score (>16) for both CRT- and scRT, with a stronger correlation for CRT-patients. C-index for the NAR-score model (0.623) was not superior to when only pathological T- and N-stage was used (0.646).

CONCLUSIONS

The NAR-score is prognostic, but it is not better than pT- and pN-stage. However, the NAR-score can still discriminate between two treatments that have different cell killing effect and may still be of value in clinical trials as an easier method than pT- and N-stage.

Circulating Tumor DNA Predicts Pathologic and Clinical Outcomes Following Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation and Surgery for Patients With Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

PURPOSE

This study was designed to assess the ability of perioperative circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) to predict surgical outcome and recurrence following neoadjuvant chemoradiation for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Twenty-nine patients with newly diagnosed LARC treated between January 2014 and February 2018 were enrolled. Patients received long-course neoadjuvant chemoradiation prior to surgery. Plasma ctDNA was collected at baseline, preoperatively, and postoperatively. Next-generation sequencing was used to identify mutations in the primary tumor, and mutation-specific droplet digital polymerase chain reaction was used to assess mutation fraction in ctDNA.

RESULTS

The median age was 54 years. The overall margin-negative, node-negative resection rate was 73% and was significantly higher among patients with undetectable preoperative ctDNA (n = 17, 88%) versus patients with detectable preoperative ctDNA (n = 9, 44%; P = .028). Undetectable ctDNA was also associated with more favorable neoadjuvant rectal scores (univariate linear regression, P = .029). Recurrence-free survival (RFS) was calculated for the subset (n = 19) who both underwent surgery and had postoperative ctDNA available. At a median follow-up of 20 months, patients with detectable postoperative ctDNA experienced poorer RFS (hazard ratio, 11.56; P = .007). All patients (4 of 4) with detectable postoperative ctDNA recurred (positive predictive value = 100%), whereas only 2 of 15 patients with undetectable ctDNA recurred (negative predictive value = 87%).

CONCLUSION

Among patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation for LARC, patients with undetectable preoperative ctDNA were more likely to have a favorable surgical outcome as measured by the rate of margin-negative, node-negative resections and neoadjuvant rectal score. Furthermore, we have confirmed prior reports indicating that detectable postoperative ctDNA is associated with worse RFS. Future prospective study is needed to assess the potential for ctDNA to assist with personalizing treatment for LARC.

Risk Stratification Using Neoadjuvant Rectal Score in the Era of Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy: Validation With Long-term Outcome Data

BACKGROUND

Despite the widespread use of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, there is no prognostic surrogate marker established in locally advanced rectal cancer.

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluated the role of neoadjuvant rectal score as a prognostic factor to stratify individual-level risks of survival and tumor recurrence.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective study.

SETTINGS

This study was conducted at the Seoul National University Hospital.

PATIENTS

A total of 397 patients who underwent chemoradiotherapy plus total mesorectal excision were analyzed.

INTERVENTIONS

There was no intervention.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Harrell C statistic and receiver operating characteristic analysis, as well as Cox regression analysis, were used to assess the prognostic strength.

RESULTS

The low (<8), intermediate (8-16), and high (>16) neoadjuvant rectal score groups included 91 (23%), 208 (52%), and 98 patients (25%). A high neoadjuvant rectal score was independently associated with inferior overall survival and disease-free survival (p = 0.011 and 0.008). Regarding the prognostic models adjusted for neoadjuvant rectal score (I) and ypT/N stage (II), the c-index was higher in model I (0.799 and 0.787, p = 0.009 for overall survival; 0.752 and 0.743, p = 0.093 for disease-free survival). The predictive ability of the neoadjuvant rectal score was superior to tumor regression grade, ypT, and ypN in the receiver operating characteristic analyses (p < 0.05 for all). Adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with better overall and disease-free survival (p = 0.003 and 0.052) in the high neoadjuvant rectal score group.

LIMITATIONS

Potential selection bias attributed to the retrospective study design was a limitation.

CONCLUSIONS

We verified the applicability of the neoadjuvant rectal score to stratify the relapse risk at the individual level for patients with stage II/III rectal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Additional studies are needed to validate the usability of neoadjuvant rectal score levels as a determinant of adjuvant strategy. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/B354. ESTRATIFICACIÓN DE RIESGO UTILIZANDO LA PUNTUACIÓN RECTAL NEOADYUVANTE EN LA ERA DE LA QUIMIORRADIOTERAPIA NEOADYUVANTE: VALIDACIÓN CON DATOS DE RESULTADOS A LARGO PLAZO: A pesar del uso generalizado de la quimiorradioterapia neoadyuvante, no existe un marcador subrogado pronóstico establecido en el cáncer de recto localmente avanzado.Este estudio evaluó el papel de la puntuación rectal neoadyuvante como factor pronóstico para estratificar los riesgos a nivel individual de supervivencia y recurrencia tumoral.Este es un estudio retrospectivo.Este estudio se realizó en el Hospital de la Universidad Nacional de Seúl.Se analizaron un total de 397 pacientes que se sometieron a quimiorradioterapia más escisión mesorrectal total.No hubo intervención.El análisis estadístico C de Harrell y las características operativas del receptor, así como el análisis de regresión de Cox, se utilizaron para evaluar la fuerza pronóstica.Los grupos de puntaje rectal neoadyuvante bajo (<8), intermedio (8-16) y alto (> 16) incluyeron 91 (23%), 208 (52%) y 98 (25%) pacientes, respectivamente. Una puntuación rectal neoadyuvante alta se asoció independientemente con una supervivencia general y una supervivencia libre de enfermedad inferiores (p = 0.011 y 0.008, respectivamente). Con respecto a los modelos pronósticos ajustados por la puntuación rectal neoadyuvante (I) y el estadio ypT/N (II), el índice c fue mayor en el modelo I (0.799 y 0.787, p = 0.009 para la supervivencia general; 0.752 y 0.743, p = 0.093 para supervivencia libre de enfermedad). La capacidad predictiva de la puntuación rectal neoadyuvante fue superior al grado de regresión tumoral, ypT y ypN en los análisis de características operativas del receptor (p <0.05 para todos). La quimioterapia adyuvante se asoció con una mejor supervivencia global y libre de enfermedad (p = 0.003 y 0.052, respectivamente) en el grupo de puntaje rectal neoadyuvante alto.El sesgo de selección potencial debido al diseño retrospectivo del estudio fue la limitación.Verificamos la aplicabilidad de la puntuación rectal neoadyuvante para estratificar el riesgo de recurrencia a nivel individual para pacientes con cáncer rectal en estadio II/III sometidos a quimiorradioterapia neoadyuvante. Se necesitan más estudios para validar la usabilidad de los niveles de puntuación rectal neoadyuvante como determinante de la estrategia adyuvante. Consulte Video Resumen en http://links.lww.com/DCR/B354.

BMI May Be a Prognostic Factor for Local Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients Treated with Long-Term Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to develop feasible nomograms to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of the local advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients who were treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and operation.

METHODS

A total of 243 LARC patients undergoing nCRT followed by total mesorectal excision (TME) were enrolled. Preoperative clinical features and postoperative pathological characteristics were collected. A Cox regression analysis was performed, and Cox-based nomograms were developed to predict the OS and CSS. We assessed the predictive performance of the nomogram with concordance index and calibration plots.

RESULTS

A total of 243 patients were included with a median follow-up period of 46 months (range from 9 to 86 months). Cox regression analysis showed that low BMI (BMI < 18.5, HR= 21.739, P < 0.05), high level of preoperative CA19-9 (HR = 3.369, P = 0.036), high ypStage (HR = 19.768, P < 0.001), positive neural invasion (HR = 4.218, P = 0.026) and no adjuvant chemotherapy (HR = 5.495, P < 0.001) were independent predictors of poor OS. Age ≥70 (HR = 2.284, P <0.001), low BMI (BMI < 18.5, HR = 3.906, P < 0.05), positive preoperative CA19-9 (HR = 1.920, P = 0.012), high ypStage (HR = 5.147, P <0.001) and positive neural invasion (HR = 2.873, P = 0.022) were independent predictors of poor CSS. The predictive nomograms were developed to predict the OS and CSS with a C-index of 0.837 and 0.760. Good statistical performance on internal validation was shown by calibration plots.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, this study demonstrated that BMI was an independent prognostic factor for OS and CSS in LARC patients treated with nCRT followed TME. A nomogram incorporating BMI, neural invasion, pre-CA19-9, ypStage, age, and adjuvant chemotherapy could be helpful to predict the OS and CSS.

Phase II Trial of Neoadjuvant Bevacizumab with Modified FOLFOX7 in Patients with Stage II and III Rectal Cancer

LESSONS LEARNED

Neoadjuvant bevacizumab with modified FOLFOX7 without radiation failed to meet the goal of pathological complete response rate; however, the low number of recurrence and disease-free survival in this population, with predominantly stage III, is encouraging and worth further exploration. The racial distribution of the patient population, as well as a wait time of more than 4 weeks after last chemotherapy, may have contributed to the findings.

BACKGROUND

Combination chemotherapy in lieu of radiation in rectal adenocarcinoma is under exploration in multiple trials. We evaluated the efficacy of neoadjuvant FOLFOX + bevacizumab in patients (pts) with clinical stage II and III disease.

METHODS

Pts received six cycles of bevacizumab (5 mg/kg) and modified FOLFOX7 (oxaliplatin 85 mg/m² , leucovorin 20 mg/m² , and fluorouracil [5-FU] 2,400 mg/m² ). Surgical resection was performed 6-8 weeks after completion of treatment and upon confirmation of nonmetastatic disease. We employed a Simon two-stage design and required three pathological complete responses (pCR) in the first 18 pts, with a prespecified pCR rate of 25% before moving to the next stage.

RESULTS

Seventeen pts enrolled; 65% at stage III. Median age was 57 (35-79), 65% were male, 47% were Hispanic, 35% were white, and 18% were Asian. All pts but one completed six cycles of therapy. One pCR was observed (6%), and 11 of 17 (65%) pts had pathological downstaging. One patient experienced systemic recurrence and remains on treatment. Probability of disease-free survival (DFS) at 5 years is 0.94 (SE, 0.06).

CONCLUSION

The study failed to meet the required three pCRs in the first 18 pts. The DFS in this population is encouraging and supports the hypothesis that select pts with rectal cancer may be spared from radiation.

Prognostic Significance of Neoadjuvant Rectal Scores in Preoperative Short-Course Radiotherapy and Long-Course Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy for Patients with Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the prognostic factors and the utility of the neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score for patients who have locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated with preoperative short-course radiotherapy (SRT) or long-course concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT).

METHODS

Of 314 consecutive stage 2 or 3 rectal cancer patients enrolled from January 2006 to December 2017, 205 underwent preoperative SRT (2500 cGy/5 fractions), and 109 underwent preoperative CRT (4200-5080 cGy/21-28 fractions) after total mesorectal excision (TME). The study calculated NAR scores using the following equation: [5 pN - 3(cT - pT) + 12]²/9.61.

RESULTS

The multivariate analysis showed that age above 65 years, pT4, pN2, NAR scores higher than 16, and distance from anal verges (< 8 cm) were significant prognostic factors for overall survival (OS), whereas, pN2, NAR scores lower than 16, and distance from anal verges (< 8 cm) were significant prognostic factors for disease-free survival (DFS) and distant metastasis (DM). The patients with an NAR score higher than 16, had a 5-year OS rate of 67.6%, a DFS rate of 56.9%, a locoregional recurrence (LRR) rate of 7.7%, and a DM rate of 35% compared with corresponding rates of 87.6%, 76.7%, 5.4%, and 7.2% for the patients with an NAR score of 16 or lower (p < 0.001 for OS, < 0.001 for DFS, 0.25 for LRR, and < 0.001 for DM).

CONCLUSIONS

For patients who undergo SRT or CRT for LARC, a higher NAR score is associated with worse OS and DFS and higher DM rates at 5 years. The NAR score could be used as a short-term surrogate end point after neoadjuvant therapy for LARC.

Prognostic value of pretreatment systemic inflammatory markers in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

The aim of this study was to explore the most powerful systemic inflammation marker of survival in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients and construct prognostic  nomograms. A total of 472 LARC patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) and radical surgery from 2011 to 2015 were included. The optimal cutoff points for the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII); and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte (PLR), and monocyte-to-lymphocyte (MLR) ratios were calculated and determined by using the X-tile program. The cut-off values were 797.6. 2.3, 169.5, and 0.4, respectively. Cox regression analysis demonstrated that higher pathological TNM stage, the AJCC tumor regression grade, and the NLR level were significantly associated with increased overall survival and disease-free survival. High NLR level (≥ 2.3) was associated with higher pre-NCRT CA19-9 levels, lower hemoglobin, larger tumor size, and more lymph nodes retrieved (p = 0.012, p = 0.024, and p < 0.001; p < 0.001, respectively). High NRL scores were associated with poorer 5-year disease-free survival and overall survival (p < 0.001, and p < 0.001, respectively). Predictive nomograms and time-independent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve that included the NLR score group were superior to those without NLR scores. Higher NLR scores (≥2 0.3) were associated with poorer DFS and OS in LARC patients. In addition, NLR was identified as the most effective marker for systemic inflammation, and the prognostic value was further confirmed by time-dependent ROC analysis. More intense adjuvant treatment could be considered for higher NLR score patients with LARC following NCRT.

Predicting poor response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer: Model constructed using pre-treatment MRI features of structured report template

PURPOSE

To develop a predictive model with pre-treatment magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings of the structured report template and clinical parameters for poor responses prediction after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (neoCRT) in locally advanced rectal cancers (LARC) patients.

METHOD

Patients with clinicopathologically confirmed LARC (training and validation datasets, n = 100 and 71, respectively) were enrolled. Patients' clinical data were retrospectively collected. MRI findings of the structured report template were analysed. The tumour regression grade (TRG) system as proposed by Mandard et al was used. Poor response was defined as TRG 3-5. Univariate logistic regression analysis and a lasso regression model were performed to select the significant predictive features from the training set. A nomogram was constructed based on a multivariable logistic regression analysis. Calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness of the nomogram were assessed. The calibrative and discriminative ability of our model were compared with those of models including the tumour-node-metastasis (TNM) stage and clinical factors.

RESULTS

The MRI-reported T4b stage, MRI-reported extramural venous invasion (EMVI) positivity, MRI-detected number of positive mesorectal lymph nodes (LNs) > 0, and preoperative oxaliplatin and capecitabine (CAPOX) chemotherapy regimen were incorporated into our nomogram. The nomogram showed good discrimination, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of 0·823 and 0·820 in the training and test sets, respectively, and good calibration in both datasets. The decision curve analysis confirmed that the nomogram was clinically useful. The calibrative and discriminative ability of our model were better than those models including the TNM stage and clinical factors.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram based on pre-treatment MRI features of the structured report template and clinical risk factors has potential for use as a non-invasive tool to preoperatively predict poor responses in LARC patients after neoCRT.

A Modified ypTNM Staging System-Development and External Validation of a Nomogram Predicting the Overall Survival of Gastric Cancer Patients Received Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy

Purpose

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is now widely used in gastric cancer patients. However, the current 8th ypTNM staging system is developed based on patients with less extensive lymph node dissection and the predictive value is relatively limited. In this study, we aim to develop and validate a nomogram that predicts overall survival in gastric cancer patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Patients and Methods

From January, 2007 to December, 2014, 471 patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy at our center were enrolled in the study. Based on the Cox proportional hazard model, a nomogram was developed from them and then an external validation was conducted on a cohort of 239 patients from another cancer center.

Results

The overall survival (OS) rates of 1 year and 3 years were 90.0% and 64.1%, respectively. Body mass index category, tumor location, T stage and N stage were independent prognostic factors for the survival outcome. The C-index of the model was 0.74 in the development cohort and 0.69 in the validation cohort. Our nomogram also showed good calibration in both cohorts.

Conclusion

We developed and validated a nomogram to predict the 1- and 3-year OS of patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radical gastrectomy with D2 lymph node dissection. This nomogram predicts survival more accurately than the AJCC TNM staging system, which is the current golden standard.

Overexpressed CES2 has prognostic value in CRC and knockdown CES2 reverses L-OHP-resistance in CRC cells by inhibition of the PI3K signaling pathway

CES-2 (carboxylesterase-2) belongs to the carboxylesterase gene family, which plays crucial roles in lipid mobilization and chemosensitivity to irinotecan. However, its role in chemosensitivity to oxaliplatin (L-OHP) remains unclear. Herein, L-OHP-resistant cells (HCT-116L and RKOL) were established by increasing the concentration of L-OHP. The results showed that CES2 expression was upregulated in L-OHP-resistant tissues and cells lines (both P < 0.01). Low expression of CES2 correlated with a better survival, and the results were further confirmed in the R2 platform: a biologist friendly web-based genomics analysis and visualization application. Downregulation of CES2 suppressed cell proliferation, induced apoptosis and reversed L-OHP resistance by medicating the PI3K signaling pathway in L-OHP-resistant cells. However, both PI3K inhibitor (LY294002) and activator (IGF-1) could not medicate CES2 expression. These findings indicated that CES2 may be utilized as a novel biomarker and therapeutic target for L-OHP resistance in CRC treatment.

Quality of Life After Curative Resection for Rectal Cancer in Patients Treated With Adjuvant Chemotherapy Compared With Observation: Results of the Randomized Phase III SCRIPT Trial

BACKGROUND

Adjuvant chemotherapy after curative resection for rectal cancer is the standard of care in several American and European guidelines.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to examine the differences in health-related quality of life over time between patients with rectal cancer who were treated with adjuvant chemotherapy or observation.

DESIGN

This is a randomized controlled phase III trial.

SETTINGS

Health-related quality-of-life assessments were conducted in Dutch patients from 43 institutes.

PATIENTS

Patients with stage II or III rectal cancer who underwent preoperative (chemo)radiotherapy followed by curative surgery (the SCRIPT trial) were included.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients were randomly assigned to adjuvant capecitabine monotherapy for 8 cycles or observation. Health-related quality of life was assessed using the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer C30 and CR38 questionnaires at 1 month after surgery (before the start of chemotherapy), and 3, 6, and 12 months after surgery.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was the difference in quality of life at 6 months after surgery, just after completion of adjuvant chemotherapy for patients in the treatment group. Second, the difference in health-related quality of life at 12 months after surgery was examined. A statistically significant difference of 5 points was considered clinically relevant.

RESULTS

Health-related quality-of-life results of 226 of 233 patients were available. At T3, overall quality of life (C30 summary score) was worse for patients treated with chemotherapy compared with observation (mean 82.3 versus 86.9, p = 0.006), but the difference was not clinically relevant. Patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy reported clinically relevant worse physical functioning (mean 78.3 versus 87.0, p < 0.001) and more reports of fatigue and dyspnea (35.7 versus 21.0 and 17.1 versus 6.7, p < 0.001). All differences were resolved at 12 months postsurgery.

LIMITATIONS

A selection of relatively fit patients willing to be randomly assigned may limit the generalizability of the results.

CONCLUSIONS

Although inferior health-related quality of life was reported just after completion of adjuvant chemotherapy, no persistent deterioration in quality of life was detected. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/A907.

Disqualification of Neoadjuvant Rectal Score Based on Data of 6596 Patients From the Netherlands Cancer Registry

BACKGROUND

The neoadjuvant rectal score (NAR) was developed as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in patients with rectal cancer after neoadjuvant treatment. We aimed to validate the NAR score in patients from the Netherlands Cancer Registry database.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We studied patients with rectal cancer treated with long-course neoadjuvant therapy followed by surgery in the Netherlands between 2007 and 2014. The probability of concordance with overall survival and the goodness of fit of several models were evaluated using Harrell's concordance index (c index) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC), which is used to compare the quality of statistical models.

RESULTS

The NAR score resulted in a c index of 0.665. We found that single pathologic parameters (pT or pN) have similar concordance as the NAR formula (c index of 0.663 and 0.655, respectively). A combination of pT and pN resulted in better concordance with the true endpoint, overall survival (c index 0.684), and a simple Cox regression model with the 3 parameters included in the NAR formula (cT, pT, and pN) improved the concordance even more (c index 0.689). When the AIC index was compared for all models, the NAR score model showed the worst fit to the true endpoint.

CONCLUSION

We found no additional value for using the NAR formula as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant therapy.

Regulatory T-cell density and cytotoxic T lymphocyte density are associated with complete response to neoadjuvant paclitaxel and carboplatin chemoradiotherapy in gastric cancer

Regulatory T-cell density and cytotoxic T lymphocyte density are crucial in regulating antitumor immune responses. Tumor infiltration has marked therapeutic effects in gastric carcinoma, and there is evidence that chemoradiotherapy (CRT) exhibits an immune-mediated component. In the present study, the density of CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ cells were evaluated in post-CRT surgical samples from 68 patients with gastric cancer using immunohistochemistry. The associations between T-cell density, cytotoxic T lymphocyte density and clinical survival rate were also analyzed. Cytotoxic T lymphocyte density was associated with gastric carcinoma regression grade and regulatory T-cell density was also associated with gastric carcinoma regression grade. Of the patients who had a pathologic complete response, 84 and 76% were found to have a high CD3⁺ and CD4⁺ cell density, which was significantly different to patients who had a low CD3⁺ and CD4⁺ cell density. High cytotoxic T lymphocyte density was also associated with improved survival rates of patients with gastric cancer. In conclusion, these outcomes indicated that regulatory T-cell density and cytotoxic T lymphocyte density in the tumor microenvironment were associated with the response to neoadjuvant CRT and may represent a therapeutic target for gastric cancer.

BACCHUS: A randomised non-comparative phase II study of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC)

BACKGROUND

Chemoradiation (CRT) or short-course radiotherapy (SCRT) are standard treatments for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). We evaluated the efficacy/safety of two neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) regimens as an alternative prior to total mesorectal excision (TME).

METHODS/DESIGN

This multi-centre, phase II trial in patients with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) defined high-risk LARC (>cT3b, cN2+ or extramural venous invasion) randomised patients (1:1) to FOLFOX + Bevacizumab (Arm 1) or FOLFOXIRI + bevacizumab (Arm 2) every 14 days for 6 cycles prior to surgery. Patients were withdrawn if positron emission tomography (PET) standardised uptake value (SUV) after 3 cycles failed to decrease by >30% or increased compared to baseline. Primary endpoint was pathological complete response rate (pCR). Secondary endpoints included adverse events (AE) and toxicity. Neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) scores based on "T" and "N" downstaging were calculated.

FINDINGS

Twenty patients aged 18-75 years were randomised. The trial stopped early because of poor accrual. Seventeen patients completed all 6 cycles of NACT. One stopped due to myocardial infarction, 1 poor response on PET (both received CRT) and 1 committed suicide. 11 patients had G3 AE, 1 G4 AE (neutropenia), and 1 G5 (suicide). pCR (the primary endpoint) was 0/10 for Arm 1 and 2/10 for Arm 2 i.e. 2/20 (10%) overall. Median NAR score was 14·9 with 5 (28%), 7 (39%), and 6 (33%) having low, intermediate, or high scores. Surgical morbidity was acceptable (1/18 wound infection, no anastomotic leak/pelvic sepsis/fistulae). The 24-month progression-free survival rate was 75% (95% CI: 60%-85%).

INTERPRETATION

The primary endpoint (pCR rate) was not met. However, FOLFOXIRI and bevacizumab achieved promising pCR rates, low NAR scores and was well-tolerated. This regimen is suitable for testing as the novel arm against current standards of SCRT and/or CRT in a future trial.