Disease, population viability, and recovery of endangered Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep

Effect of rock properties on wear and cutting performance of multi blade circular saw with iron based multi-layer diamond segments

This study is an attempt for comprehensive, combining experimental data with advanced analytical techniques and machine learning for a thorough understanding of the factors influencing the wear and cutting performance of multi-blade diamond disc cutters on granite blocks. A series of sawing experiments were performed to evaluate the wear and cutting performance of multi blade diamond disc cutters with varying diameters in the processing of large-sized granite blocks. The multi-layer diamond segments comprising the Iron (Fe) based metal matrix were brazed on the sawing blades. The segment's wear was studied through micrographs and data obtained from the Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM) and Energy Dispersive X-ray (EDS). Granite rock samples of nine varieties were tested in the laboratory to determine the quantitative rock parameters. The contribution of individual rock parameters and their combined effects on wear and cutting performance of multi blade saw were correlated using statistical machine learning methods. Moreover, predictive models were developed to estimate the wear and cutting rate based on the most significant rock properties. The point load strength index, uniaxial compressive strength, and deformability, Cerchar abrasivity index, and Cerchar hardness index were found to be the significant variables affecting the sawing performance.

Restoration of bighorn sheep: History, successes, and remaining conservation issues

Mammals are imperiled worldwide, primarily from habitat loss or modification, and exhibit downward trends in their populations and distributions. Likewise, large-bodied herbivores have undergone a collapse in numbers and are at the highest extinction risk of all mammals. Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) are among those large-bodied herbivores that possess a slow-paced life history, suffer from debilitating diseases, and have experienced range contractions across their historical distribution since the late 1800s. Translocations and reintroductions of these mountain ungulates are key aspects of restoration and often are used to re-establish populations in historical habitat or to supplement declining herds. Millions of US dollars and much effort by state and federal natural resource agencies, as well as public and private organizations, have been expended to restore bighorn sheep. Despite those efforts, translocated populations of bighorn sheep have not always been successful. We assessed restoration of bighorn sheep to provide insights in the context of conservation of populations of bighorn sheep, because this management tool is a frequently used to re-establish populations. We focused briefly on past efforts to restore bighorn sheep populations and followed with updates on the value of habitat enhancements, genetic issues, the importance of ecotypic or phenotypic adaptations when restoring populations, predation, and disease transmission. We also raised issues and posed questions that have potential to affect future decisions regarding the restoration of bighorn sheep. This information will help conservationists improve the success of conserving these iconic large mammals.

Detection of faecal bacteria and antibiotic resistance genes in biofilms attached to plastics from human-impacted coastal areas

Plastics have been proposed as vectors of bacteria as they act as a substrate for biofilms. In this study, we evaluated the abundance of faecal and marine bacteria and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) from biofilms adhered to marine plastics. Floating plastics and plastics from sediments were collected in coastal areas impacted by human faecal pollution in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Culture and/or molecular methods were used to quantify faecal indicators (E. coli, Enterococci and crAssphage), and the ARGs sulI, tetW and bla_TEM and the 16S rRNA were detected by qPCR assays. Pseudomonas and Vibrio species and heterotrophic marine bacteria were also analysed via culture-based methods. Results showed that, plastic particles covered by bacterial biofilms, primarily consisted of marine bacteria including Vibrio spp. Some floating plastics had a low concentration of viable E. coli and Enterococci (42% and 67% of the plastics respectively). Considering the median area of the plastics, we detected an average of 68 cfu E. coli per item, while a higher concentration of E. coli was detected on individual plastic items, when compared with 100 ml of the surrounding water. Using qPCR, we quantified higher values of faecal indicators which included inactive and dead microorganisms, detecting up to 2.6 × 10² gc mm^-2. The ARGs were detected in 67-88% of the floating plastics and in 29-57% of the sediment plastics with a concentration of up to 6.7 × 10² gc mm^-2. Furthermore, enrichment of these genes was observed in biofilms compared with the surrounding water. These results show that floating plastics act as a conduit for both the attachment and transport of faecal microorganisms. In contrast, low presence of faecal indicators was detected in plastic from seafloor sediments. Therefore, although in low concentrations, faecal bacteria, and potential pathogens, were identified in marine plastics, further suggesting plastics act as a reservoir of pathogens and ARGs.

Exploring metapopulation-scale suppression alternatives for a global invader in a river network experiencing climate change

Invasive species can dramatically alter ecosystems, but eradication is difficult, and suppression is expensive once they are established. Uncertainties in the potential for expansion and impacts by an invader can lead to delayed and inadequate suppression, allowing for establishment. Metapopulation viability models can aid in planning strategies to improve responses to invaders and lessen invasive species' impacts, which may be particularly important under climate change. We used a spatially explicit metapopulation viability model to explore suppression strategies for ecologically damaging invasive brown trout (Salmo trutta), established in the Colorado River and a tributary in Grand Canyon National Park. Our goals were to estimate the effectiveness of strategies targeting different life stages and subpopulations within a metapopulation; quantify the effectiveness of a rapid response to a new invasion relative to delaying action until establishment; and estimate whether future hydrology and temperature regimes related to climate change and reservoir management affect metapopulation viability and alter the optimal management response. Our models included scenarios targeting different life stages with spatially varying intensities of electrofishing, redd destruction, incentivized angler harvest, piscicides, and a weir. Quasi-extinction (QE) was obtainable only with metapopulation-wide suppression targeting multiple life stages. Brown trout population growth rates were most sensitive to changes in age 0 and large adult mortality. The duration of suppression needed to reach QE for a large established subpopulation was 12 years compared with 4 with a rapid response to a new invasion. Isolated subpopulations were vulnerable to suppression; however, connected tributary subpopulations enhanced metapopulation persistence by serving as climate refuges. Water shortages driving changes in reservoir storage and subsequent warming would cause brown trout declines, but metapopulation QE was achieved only through refocusing and increasing suppression. Our modeling approach improves understanding of invasive brown trout metapopulation dynamics, which could lead to more focused and effective invasive species suppression strategies and, ultimately, maintenance of populations of endemic fishes.

Population connectivity patterns of genetic diversity, immune responses and exposure to infectious pneumonia in a metapopulation of desert bighorn sheep

Habitat fragmentation is an important driver of biodiversity loss and can be remediated through management actions aimed at maintenance of natural connectivity in metapopulations. Connectivity may protect populations from infectious diseases by preserving immunogenetic diversity and disease resistance. However, connectivity could exacerbate the risk of infectious disease spread across vulnerable populations. We tracked the spread of a novel strain of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae in a metapopulation of desert bighorn sheep Ovis canadensis nelsoni in the Mojave Desert to investigate how variation in connectivity among populations influenced disease outcomes. M. ovipneumoniae was detected throughout the metapopulation, indicating that the relative isolation of many of these populations did not protect them from pathogen invasion. However, we show that connectivity among bighorn sheep populations was correlated with higher immunogenetic diversity, a protective immune response and lower disease prevalence. Variation in protective immunity predicted infection risk in individual bighorn sheep and was associated with heterozygosity at genetic loci linked to adaptive and innate immune signalling. Together, these findings may indicate that population connectivity maintains immunogenetic diversity in bighorn sheep populations in this system and has direct effects on immune responses in individual bighorn sheep and their susceptibility to infection by a deadly pathogen. Our study suggests that the genetic benefits of population connectivity could outweigh the risk of infectious disease spread and supports conservation management that maintains natural connectivity in metapopulations.

Life and death in a dynamic environment: Invasive trout, floods, and intraspecific drivers of translocated populations

Understanding the relative strengths of intrinsic and extrinsic factors regulating populations is a long-standing focus of ecology and critical to advancing conservation programs for imperiled species. Conservation could benefit from an increased understanding of factors influencing vital rates (somatic growth, recruitment, survival) in small, translocated populations, which is lacking owing to difficulties in long-term monitoring of rare species. Translocations, here defined as the transfer of wild-captured individuals from source populations to new habitats, are widely used for species conservation, but outcomes are often minimally monitored, and translocations that are monitored often fail. To improve our understanding of how translocated populations respond to environmental variation, we developed and tested hypotheses related to intrinsic (density dependent) and extrinsic (introduced rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss, stream flow and temperature regime) causes of vital rate variation in endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) populations translocated to Colorado River tributaries in the Grand Canyon (GC), USA. Using biannual recapture data from translocated populations over 10 years, we tested hypotheses related to seasonal somatic growth, and recruitment and population growth rates with linear mixed-effects models and temporal symmetry mark-recapture models. We combined data from recaptures and resights of dispersed fish (both physical captures and continuously recorded antenna detections) from throughout GC to test survival hypotheses, while accounting for site fidelity, using joint live-recapture/live-resight models. While recruitment only occurred in one site, which also drove population growth (relative to survival), evidence supported hypotheses related to density dependence in growth, survival, and recruitment, and somatic growth and recruitment were further limited by introduced trout. Mixed-effects models explained between 67% and 86% of the variation in somatic growth, which showed increased growth rates with greater flood-pulse frequency during monsoon season. Monthly survival was 0.56-0.99 and 0.80-0.99 in the two populations, with lower survival during periods of higher intraspecific abundance and low flood frequency. Our results suggest translocations can contribute toward the recovery of large-river fishes, but continued suppression of invasive fishes to enhance recruitment may be required to ensure population resilience. Furthermore, we demonstrate the importance of flooding to population demographics in food-depauperate, dynamic, invaded systems.

Life and death in a dynamic environment: Invasive trout, floods, and intraspecific drivers of translocated populations

Understanding the relative strengths of intrinsic and extrinsic factors regulating populations is a long-standing focus of ecology and critical to advancing conservation programs for imperiled species. Conservation could benefit from an increased understanding of factors influencing vital rates (somatic growth, recruitment, survival) in small, translocated populations, which is lacking owing to difficulties in long-term monitoring of rare species. Translocations, here defined as the transfer of wild-captured individuals from source populations to new habitats, are widely used for species conservation, but outcomes are often minimally monitored, and translocations that are monitored often fail. To improve our understanding of how translocated populations respond to environmental variation, we developed and tested hypotheses related to intrinsic (density dependent) and extrinsic (introduced rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss, stream flow and temperature regime) causes of vital rate variation in endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) populations translocated to Colorado River tributaries in the Grand Canyon (GC), USA. Using biannual recapture data from translocated populations over 10 years, we tested hypotheses related to seasonal somatic growth, and recruitment and population growth rates with linear mixed-effects models and temporal symmetry mark-recapture models. We combined data from recaptures and resights of dispersed fish (both physical captures and continuously recorded antenna detections) from throughout GC to test survival hypotheses, while accounting for site fidelity, using joint live-recapture/live-resight models. While recruitment only occurred in one site, which also drove population growth (relative to survival), evidence supported hypotheses related to density dependence in growth, survival, and recruitment, and somatic growth and recruitment were further limited by introduced trout. Mixed-effects models explained between 67% and 86% of the variation in somatic growth, which showed increased growth rates with greater flood-pulse frequency during monsoon season. Monthly survival was 0.56-0.99 and 0.80-0.99 in the two populations, with lower survival during periods of higher intraspecific abundance and low flood frequency. Our results suggest translocations can contribute toward the recovery of large-river fishes, but continued suppression of invasive fishes to enhance recruitment may be required to ensure population resilience. Furthermore, we demonstrate the importance of flooding to population demographics in food-depauperate, dynamic, invaded systems.

Integration of Lineal Geostatistical Analysis and Computational Intelligence to Evaluate the Batch Grinding Kinetics

The kinetic characterization of the grinding process has always faced a special challenge due to the constant fluctuations of its parameters. The weight percentage of each size (WPES) should be mentioned. There are particular considerations for WPESs, because their tendencies are not monotonic. The objective of this work is to provide a methodology and model that will allow us to better understand the kinetics of grinding through the analysis of the Response Surface (RS), using geostatistical (data reconstruction) and computational intelligence (meta-model) techniques. Six experimental cases were studied and trends were evaluated/adjusted with multiple parameters, including an identity plot adjusted to 0.75–0.90, a standardized error histogram with a mean of −0.01 to −0.05 and a standard deviation of 0.63–1.2, a standardized error based on an estimated value of −0.09 to −0.02, a meta-model adjusted to between 92 and 99%, and finally, using the coefficient of variation, which classifies the information (stable/unstable). In conclusion, it was feasible to obtain the results of the WPES from RS, and it was possible to visualize the areas of greatest fluctuation, trend changes, error adjustments, and data scarcity without the need for specific experimental techniques, a coefficient analysis of the fracturing or the use of differential equation systems.

The impact of susceptibility correction on diffusion metrics in adolescents

BACKGROUND

Diffusion tensor imaging is a widely used imaging method of brain white matter, but it is prone to imaging artifacts. The data corrections can affect the measured values.

OBJECTIVE

To explore the impact of susceptibility correction on diffusion metrics.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cohort of 27 healthy adolescents (18 boys, 9 girls, mean age 12.7 years) underwent 3-T MRI, and we collected two diffusion data sets (anterior-posterior). The data were processed both with and without susceptibility artifact correction. We derived fractional anisotropy, mean diffusivity and histogram data of fiber length distribution from both the corrected and uncorrected data, which were collected from the corpus callosum, corticospinal tract and cingulum bilaterally.

RESULTS

Fractional anisotropy and mean diffusivity values significantly differed when comparing the pathways in all measured tracts. The fractional anisotropy values were lower and the mean diffusivity values higher in the susceptibility-corrected data than in the uncorrected data. We found a significant difference in total tract length in the corpus callosum and the corticospinal tract.

CONCLUSION

This study indicates that susceptibility correction has a significant effect on measured fractional anisotropy, and on mean diffusivity values and tract lengths. To receive reliable and comparable results, the correction should be used systematically.

Increasing the information provided by probabilistic sensitivity analysis: The relative density plot

BACKGROUND

Results of probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) are frequently visualized as a scatterplot, which is limited through overdrawing and a lack of insight in relative density. To overcome these limitations, we have developed the Relative Density plot (PSA-ReD).

METHODS

The PSA-ReD combines a density plot and a contour plot to visualize and quantify PSA results. Relative density, depicted using a color gradient, is transformed to a cumulative probability. Contours are then plotted over regions with a specific cumulative probability. We use two real-world case studies to demonstrate the value of the PSA-ReD plot.

RESULTS

The PSA-ReD method demonstrates proof-of-concept and feasibility. In the real-world case-studies, PSA-ReD provided additional visual information that could not be understood from the traditional scatterplot. High density areas were identified by color-coding and the contour plot allowed for quantification of PSA iterations within areas of the cost-effectiveness plane, diminishing overdrawing and putting infrequent iterations in perspective. Critically, the PSA-ReD plot informs modellers about non-linearities within their model.

CONCLUSIONS

The PSA-ReD plot is easy to implement, presents more of the information enclosed in PSA data, and prevents inappropriate interpretation of PSA results. It gives modelers additional insight in model functioning and the distribution of uncertainty around the cost-effectiveness estimate.

Feeling in Control: The Role of Cardiac Timing in the Sense of Agency

The sense of agency describes the experience of controlling one’s body to cause desired effects in the world. We explored whether this is influenced by interoceptive processes. Specifically, we investigated whether the sense of agency changes depending on where, in the cardiac cycle (systole or diastole), the action was executed and where the outcome of the action occurred. In two experiments, participants completed decision-making task to win/lose money. Explicit (ratings of control) and implicit (temporal judgement) measures of agency were differentially affected by cardiovascular state. Implicit agency scores were affected by the cardiac phase at the point of action execution. Explicit ratings of control were affected by the type of (free vs. instructed) and by outcome valence (win vs. lose). The time of the action was uniformly distributed across the cardiac cycle. These results show interoceptive impact on agency, but that cardiac cycle may affect explicit and implicit agency differently.

Linking population performance to nutritional condition in an alpine ungulate

Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) can live in extremely harsh environments and subsist on submaintenance diets for much of the year. Under these conditions, energy stored as body fat serves as an essential reserve for supplementing dietary intake to meet metabolic demands of survival and reproduction. We developed equations to predict ingesta-free body fat in bighorn sheep using ultrasonography and condition scores in vivo and carcass measurements postmortem. We then used in vivo equations to investigate the relationships between body fat, pregnancy, overwinter survival, and population growth in free-ranging bighorn sheep in California and Nevada. Among 11 subpopulations that included alpine winter residents and migrants, mean ingesta-free body fat of lactating adult females during autumn ranged between 8.8% and 15.0%; mean body fat for nonlactating females ranged from 16.4% to 20.9%. In adult females, ingesta-free body fat > 7.7% during January (early in the second trimester) corresponded with a > 90% probability of pregnancy and ingesta-free body fat > 13.5% during autumn yielded a probability of overwinter survival > 90%. Mean ingesta-free body fat of lactating females in autumn was positively associated with finite rate of population increase (λ) over the subsequent year in bighorn sheep subpopulations that wintered in alpine landscapes. Bighorn sheep with ingesta-free body fat of 26% in autumn and living in alpine environments possess energy reserves sufficient to meet resting metabolism for 83 days on fat reserves alone. We demonstrated that nutritional condition can be a pervasive mechanism underlying demography in bighorn sheep and characterizes the nutritional value of their occupied ranges. Mountain sheep are capital survivors in addition to being capital breeders, and because they inhabit landscapes with extreme seasonal forage scarcity, they also can be fat reserve obligates. Quantifying nutritional condition is essential for understanding the quality of habitats, how it underpins demography, and the proximity of a population to a nutritional threshold.

Dynamics of crAssphage as a human source tracking marker in potentially faecally polluted environments

Recent studies have shown that crAssphage is abundant in human faecal samples worldwide. It has thus been postulated as a potential microbial source tracking (MST) marker to detect human faecal pollution in water. However, an effective implementation of crAssphage in water management strategies will depend on an understanding of its environmental dynamics. In this work, the abundance and temporal distribution of crAssphage was analysed in the effluent of wastewater treatment plants using different sewage treatments, and in two rivers (water and sediments) that differ in pollution impact and flow regime. Additionally, the influence of environmental conditions (temperature and rainfall) on the removal of the marker was studied along a river section, and natural inactivation was assessed by a mesocosms approach. Molecular and culture-based tools were used to compare crAssphage abundance and dynamics with those of bacteria and bacteriophages currently applied as global indicators (E. coli, somatic coliphages, Bacteroides GA17 bacteriophages, and the human-associated MST markers HF183 and HMBif). CrAssphage concentrations in sewage effluent and river samples were similar to those of HF183 and HMBif and higher than other general and/or culture-based indicators (by 2-3 orders of magnitude). Measurement of crAssphage abundance revealed no temporal variability in the effluent, although rainfall events affected the dynamics, possibly through the mobilisation of sediments, where the marker was detected in high concentrations, and an increase in diffuse and point pollution. Another factor affecting crAssphage inactivation was temperature. Its persistence was longer compared with other bacterial markers analysed by qPCR but lower than culturable markers. The results of this study support the use of crAssphage as a human source tracking marker of faecal pollution in water, since it has similar abundances to other molecular human MST markers, yet with a longer persistence in the environment. Nevertheless, its use in combination with infectious bacteriophages is probably advisable.

Both candidate gene and neutral genetic diversity correlate with parasite resistance in female Mediterranean mouflon

BACKGROUND

Parasite infections can have substantial impacts on population dynamics and are accordingly a key challenge for wild population management. Here we studied genetic mechanisms driving parasite resistance in a large herbivore through a comprehensive approach combining measurements of neutral (16 microsatellites) and adaptive (MHC DRB1 exon 2) genetic diversity and two types of gastrointestinal parasites (nematodes and coccidia).

RESULTS

While accounting for other extrinsic and intrinsic predictors known to impact parasite load, we show that both neutral genetic diversity and DRB1 are associated with resistance to gastrointestinal nematodes. Intermediate levels of multi-locus heterozygosity maximized nematodes resistance, suggesting that both in- and outbreeding depression might occur in the population. DRB1 heterozygosity and specific alleles effects were detected, suggesting the occurrence of heterozygote advantage, rare-allele effects and/or fluctuating selection. On the contrary, no association was detected between genetic diversity and resistance to coccidia, indicating that different parasite classes are impacted by different genetic drivers.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides important insights for large herbivores and wild sheep pathogen management, and in particular suggests that factors likely to impact genetic diversity and allelic frequencies, including global changes, are also expected to impact parasite resistance.

DNA methylation regulated microRNAs in human cervical cancer

Regulation of miRNA gene expression by DNA promoter methylation may represent a key mechanism to drive cervical cancer progression. In order to understand the impact of DNA promoter methylation on miRNAs at various stages of cervical carcinogenesis, we performed DNA methylation microarray on Normal Cervical Epithelium (NCE), Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia (CIN I-III) and Squamous Cell Carcinoma (SCC) tissues to identify differentially methylated miRNAs followed by validation by bisulfite sequencing. Further, expression of miRNAs was analyzed by qRT-PCR in clinical tissues and cervical cancer cell lines. Transcriptional activity was determined by luciferase assay. We identified a total of 69 hypermethylated and hypomethylated miRNA promoters encompassing 78 CpG islands in all except Y chromosome, among the three groups. The candidate DNA promoters of miR-424 were significantly hypermethylated and miR-200b and miR-34c were significantly hypomethylated in SCC compared to NCE (P < 0.05). Expression of miR-424, miR-200b, and miR-34c were inversely correlated with promoter DNA methylation in tissue samples. Treatment of cell lines with 5-aza-2'-deoxycytidine showed differential expression in all three miRNAs. We observed a decrease in miRNA promoter activity following in vitro SssI methylase treatment of miR-424, miR-200b, and miR-34c. Luciferase assay demonstrated that miR-200b and miR-424 functionally interacts with 3'-UTR of HIPK3 and RBBP6 respectively and decreased their activity in presence of miR-200b and miR-424 mimics transfected in SiHa cells. Taken together, we have identified deregulation of miRNAs by aberrant DNA promoter methylation, leading to its transcriptional silencing during cervical carcinogenesis, which can be potential targets for diagnosis and therapy.

Disease introduction is associated with a phase transition in bighorn sheep demographics

Ecological theory suggests that pathogens are capable of regulating or limiting host population dynamics, and this relationship has been empirically established in several settings. However, although studies of childhood diseases were integral to the development of disease ecology, few studies show population limitation by a disease affecting juveniles. Here, we present empirical evidence that disease in lambs constrains population growth in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) based on 45 years of population-level and 18 years of individual-level monitoring across 12 populations. While populations generally increased (λ = 1.11) prior to disease introduction, most of these same populations experienced an abrupt change in trajectory at the time of disease invasion, usually followed by stagnant-to-declining growth rates (λ = 0.98) over the next 20 years. Disease-induced juvenile mortality imposed strong constraints on population growth that were not observed prior to disease introduction, even as adult survival returned to pre-invasion levels. Simulations suggested that models including persistent disease-induced mortality in juveniles qualitatively matched observed population trajectories, whereas models that only incorporated all-age disease events did not. We use these results to argue that pathogen persistence may pose a lasting, but under-recognized, threat to host populations, particularly in cases where clinical disease manifests primarily in juveniles.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of pneumonia in bighorn sheep

1. Bighorn sheep mortality related to pneumonia is a primary factor limiting population recovery across western North America, but management has been constrained by an incomplete understanding of the disease. We analysed patterns of pneumonia-caused mortality over 14 years in 16 interconnected bighorn sheep populations to gain insights into underlying disease processes. 2. We observed four age-structured classes of annual pneumonia mortality patterns: all-age, lamb-only, secondary all-age and adult-only. Although there was considerable variability within classes, overall they differed in persistence within and impact on populations. Years with pneumonia-induced mortality occurring simultaneously across age classes (i.e. all-age) appeared to be a consequence of pathogen invasion into a naïve population and resulted in immediate population declines. Subsequently, low recruitment due to frequent high mortality outbreaks in lambs, probably due to association with chronically infected ewes, posed a significant obstacle to population recovery. Secondary all-age events occurred in previously exposed populations when outbreaks in lambs were followed by lower rates of pneumonia-induced mortality in adults. Infrequent pneumonia events restricted to adults were usually of short duration with low mortality. 3. Acute pneumonia-induced mortality in adults was concentrated in fall and early winter around the breeding season when rams are more mobile and the sexes commingle. In contrast, mortality restricted to lambs peaked in summer when ewes and lambs were concentrated in nursery groups. 4. We detected weak synchrony in adult pneumonia between adjacent populations, but found no evidence for landscape-scale extrinsic variables as drivers of disease. 5. We demonstrate that there was a >60% probability of a disease event each year following pneumonia invasion into bighorn sheep populations. Healthy years also occurred periodically, and understanding the factors driving these apparent fade-out events may be the key to managing this disease. Our data and modelling indicate that pneumonia can have greater impacts on bighorn sheep populations than previously reported, and we present hypotheses about processes involved for testing in future investigations and management.

Translating effects of inbreeding depression on component vital rates to overall population growth in endangered bighorn sheep

Evidence of inbreeding depression is commonly detected from the fitness traits of animals, yet its effects on population growth rates of endangered species are rarely assessed. We examined whether inbreeding depression was affecting Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae), a subspecies listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Our objectives were to characterize genetic variation in this subspecies; test whether inbreeding depression affects bighorn sheep vital rates (adult survival and female fecundity); evaluate whether inbreeding depression may limit subspecies recovery; and examine the potential for genetic management to increase population growth rates. Genetic variation in 4 populations of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep was among the lowest reported for any wild bighorn sheep population, and our results suggest that inbreeding depression has reduced adult female fecundity. Despite this population sizes and growth rates predicted from matrix-based projection models demonstrated that inbreeding depression would not substantially inhibit the recovery of Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep populations in the next approximately 8 bighorn sheep generations (48 years). Furthermore, simulations of genetic rescue within the subspecies did not suggest that such activities would appreciably increase population sizes or growth rates during the period we modeled (10 bighorn sheep generations, 60 years). Only simulations that augmented the Mono Basin population with genetic variation from other subspecies, which is not currently a management option, predicted significant increases in population size. Although we recommend that recovery activities should minimize future losses of genetic variation, genetic effects within these endangered populations-either negative (inbreeding depression) or positive (within subspecies genetic rescue)-appear unlikely to dramatically compromise or stimulate short-term conservation efforts. The distinction between detecting the effects of inbreeding depression on a component vital rate (e.g., fecundity) and the effects of inbreeding depression on population growth underscores the importance of quantifying inbreeding costs relative to population dynamics to effectively manage endangered populations.