Integrating basic and applied research to estimate carnivore abundance

A clear connection between basic research and applied management is often missing or difficult to discern. We present a case study of integration of basic research with applied management for estimating abundance of gray wolves (Canis lupus) in Montana, USA. Estimating wolf abundance is a key component of wolf management but is costly and time intensive as wolf populations continue to grow. We developed a multimodel approach using an occupancy model, mechanistic territory model, and empirical group size model to improve abundance estimates while reducing monitoring effort. Whereas field-based wolf counts generally rely on costly, difficult-to-collect monitoring data, especially for larger areas or population sizes, our approach efficiently uses readily available wolf observation data and introduces models focused on biological mechanisms underlying territorial and social behavior. In a three-part process, the occupancy model first estimates the extent of wolf distribution in Montana, based on environmental covariates and wolf observations. The spatially explicit mechanistic territory model predicts territory sizes using simple behavioral rules and data on prey resources, terrain ruggedness, and human density. Together, these models predict the number of packs. An empirical pack size model based on 14 years of data demonstrates that pack sizes are positively related to local densities of packs, and negatively related to terrain ruggedness, local mortalities, and intensity of harvest management. Total abundance estimates for given areas are derived by combining estimated numbers of packs and pack sizes. We estimated the Montana wolf population to be smallest in the first year of our study, with 91 packs and 654 wolves in 2007, followed by a population peak in 2011 with 1252 wolves. The population declined ~6% thereafter, coincident with implementation of legal harvest in Montana. Recent numbers have largely stabilized at an average of 191 packs and 1141 wolves from 2016 to 2020. This new approach accounts for biologically based, spatially explicit predictions of behavior to provide more accurate estimates of carnivore abundance at finer spatial scales. By integrating basic and applied research, our approach can therefore better inform decision-making and meet management needs.

Economical defence of resources structures territorial space use in a cooperative carnivore

Ecologists have long sought to understand space use and mechanisms underlying patterns observed in nature. We developed an optimality landscape and mechanistic territory model to understand mechanisms driving space use and compared model predictions to empirical reality. We demonstrate our approach using grey wolves (Canis lupus). In the model, simulated animals selected territories to economically acquire resources by selecting patches with greatest value, accounting for benefits, costs and trade-offs of defending and using space on the optimality landscape. Our approach successfully predicted and explained first- and second-order space use of wolves, including the population's distribution, territories of individual packs, and influences of prey density, competitor density, human-caused mortality risk and seasonality. It accomplished this using simple behavioural rules and limited data to inform the optimality landscape. Results contribute evidence that economical territory selection is a mechanistic bridge between space use and animal distribution on the landscape. This approach and resulting gains in knowledge enable predicting effects of a wide range of environmental conditions, contributing to both basic ecological understanding of natural systems and conservation. We expect this approach will demonstrate applicability across diverse habitats and species, and that its foundation can help continue to advance understanding of spatial behaviour.

Assessing the robustness of time-to-event models for estimating unmarked wildlife abundance using remote cameras

Recently developed methods, including time-to-event and space-to-event models, estimate the abundance of unmarked populations from encounter rates with camera trap arrays, addressing a gap in noninvasive wildlife monitoring. However, estimating abundance from encounter rates relies on assumptions that can be difficult to meet in the field, including random movement, population closure, and an accurate estimate of movement speed. Understanding how these models respond to violation of these assumptions will assist in making them more applicable in real-world settings. We used simulated walk models to test the effects of violating the assumptions of the time-to-event model under four scenarios: (1) incorrectly estimating movement speed, (2) violating closure, (3) individuals moving within simplified territories (i.e., movement restricted to partially overlapping circles), (4) and individuals clustering in preferred habitat. The time-to-event model was robust to closure violations, territoriality, and clustering when cameras were placed randomly. However, the model failed to estimate abundance accurately when movement speed was incorrectly estimated or cameras were placed nonrandomly with respect to habitat. We show that the time-to-event model can provide unbiased estimates of abundance when some assumptions that are commonly violated in wildlife studies are not met. Having a robust method for estimating the abundance of unmarked populations with remote cameras will allow practitioners to monitor a more diverse array of populations noninvasively. With the time-to-event model, placing cameras randomly with respect to animal movement and accurately estimating movement speed allows unbiased estimation of abundance. The model is robust to violating the other assumptions we tested.

Habitat selection by wolves and mountain lions during summer in western Montana

In the Northern Rockies of the United States, predators like wolves (Canis lupus) and mountain lions (Puma concolor) have been implicated in fluctuations or declines in populations of game species like elk (Cervus canadensis) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus). In particular, local distributions of these predators may affect ungulate behavior, use of space, and dynamics. Our goal was to develop generalizable predictions of habitat selection by wolves and mountain lions across western Montana. We hypothesized both predator species would select habitat that maximized their chances of encountering and killing ungulates and that minimized their chances of encountering humans. We assessed habitat selection by these predators during summer using within-home range (3^rd order) resource selection functions (RSFs) in multiple study areas throughout western Montana, and tested how generalizable RSF predictions were by applying them to out-of-sample telemetry data from separate study areas. Selection for vegetation cover-types varied substantially among wolves in different study areas. Nonetheless, our predictions of 3^rd order selection by wolves were highly generalizable across different study areas. Wolves consistently selected simple topography where ungulate prey may be more susceptible to their cursorial hunting mode. Topographic features may serve as better proxies of predation risk by wolves than vegetation cover-types. Predictions of mountain lion distribution were less generalizable. Use of rugged terrain by mountain lions varied across ecosystem-types, likely because mountain lions targeted the habitats of different prey species in each study area. Our findings suggest that features that facilitate the hunting mode of a predator (i.e. simple topography for cursorial predators and hiding cover for stalking predators) may be more generalizable predictors of their habitat selection than features associated with local prey densities.

Evidence of economical territory selection in a cooperative carnivore

As an outcome of natural selection, animals are probably adapted to select territories economically by maximizing benefits and minimizing costs of territory ownership. Theory and empirical precedent indicate that a primary benefit of many territories is exclusive access to food resources, and primary costs of defending and using space are associated with competition, travel and mortality risk. A recently developed mechanistic model for economical territory selection provided numerous empirically testable predictions. We tested these predictions using location data from grey wolves (Canis lupus) in Montana, USA. As predicted, territories were smaller in areas with greater densities of prey, competitors and low-use roads, and for groups of greater size. Territory size increased before decreasing curvilinearly with greater terrain ruggedness and harvest mortalities. Our study provides evidence for the economical selection of territories as a causal mechanism underlying ecological patterns observed in a cooperative carnivore. Results demonstrate how a wide range of environmental and social conditions will influence economical behaviour and resulting space use. We expect similar responses would be observed in numerous territorial species. A mechanistic approach enables understanding how and why animals select particular territories. This knowledge can be used to enhance conservation efforts and more successfully predict effects of conservation actions.

Prehospital Care of Pediatric Hypoglycemic Seizure Patients in the State of North Carolina: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Pediatric seizures are commonly encountered in emergency medical services (EMS). Evidence is accumulating that the rate of hypoglycemia in this setting is low, challenging the concept of routine prehospital glucose measurement.

OBJECTIVE

We studied factors associated with EMS protocol compliance for glucose testing in children < 18 years of age with a 9-1-1 call for seizure as well as rates of hypoglycemia in the prehospital setting.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of data from the North Carolina EMS registry from 2013 to 2014. North Carolina EMS protocols require glucose measurement prior to seizure treatment. Scene calls for patients ≤ 17 years with a complaint of seizure were included. We calculated incidence of testing, hypoglycemia, and the relative risk of compliance with glucose measurement.

RESULTS

There were 13,182 calls for seizure, of which 6,262 (47.5%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 46.6% to 48.3%) had a glucose obtained. Hypoglycemia (glucose < 60 mg/dL) was present in 78 of 6,262 (1.25%, 95% CI = 0.97% to 1.5%) patients. Glucose was supplemented in 61 patients (median glucose 61 mg/dL, interquartile range = 51 to 67 mg/dL). Testing rates increased with age (relative risk [RR] = 1.04 per year, 95% CI = 1.03-1.04 per year), emergency medical technician-paramedic (EMT-P) presence (RR = 1.2, 95% CI = 1.1-1.3) and with antiepileptic medication use (RR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.1 to 1.2). Testing was less likely in nonwhite patients (RR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.92 to 0.98).

CONCLUSIONS

Compliance is suboptimal, varying with patient age, race, and EMT-P presence. Testing increases when antiepileptic drugs are used. Hypoglycemia in tested patients was infrequent; however, proper treatment for hypoglycemic seizures will not be delivered if testing does not occur. It is worthwhile examining the utility of routine testing in this setting; however, until such time as protocols are revised, regional EMS administration should focus on education and uniform compliance with state protocols.

Pediatric Needle Cricothyrotomy: A Case for Simulation in Prehospital Medicine

INTRODUCTION

A patient that cannot be oxygenated or ventilated requires immediate and effective assessment, treatment, and transportation. Pediatric needle cricothyrotomy is used infrequently, therefore providers have a tendency to lose proficiency. Simulation training and evaluation are valuable tools to improve provider experience and skill.

METHODS

A case was designed involving a 3-year-old male with a peanut allergy that presents with rash, swelling, and severe respiratory distress. The patient's respiratory distress and swelling worsens despite treatment with epinephrine and other allergic reaction medications. The patient then becomes unresponsive and impossible to oxygenate or ventilate. The primary objective of this case is airway management with needle cricothyrotomy in the pediatric population. A secondary objective is appropriate postprocedure management including appropriate ventilation rates and emergency medical transportation methods.

RESULTS

This case was initially presented to 45 paramedics. Provider comfort with managing airway emergencies in young children improved from 47% to 89%. Confidence in performing pediatric needle cricothyrotomy improved from 16% to 87%. All providers felt the exercise was valuable and 98% felt the simulation provided appropriate realism.

DISCUSSION

This scenario provides an outstanding opportunity for paramedic evaluation and training in pediatric needle cricothyrotomy and significantly improved the comfort level of providers' management of a failed pediatric airway. As we reflected on the use of this module, it was apparent that this was a very beneficial opportunity to spend one-on-one time between participants and their medical director. The training staff also benefited from the repeated emphasis of good assessment and treatment of a complex patient scenario.

Harvest and group effects on pup survival in a cooperative breeder

Recruitment in cooperative breeders can be negatively affected by changes in group size and composition. The majority of cooperative breeding studies have not evaluated human harvest; therefore, the effects of recurring annual harvest and group characteristics on survival of young are poorly understood. We evaluated how harvest and groups affect pup survival using genetic sampling and pedigrees for grey wolves in North America. We hypothesized that harvest reduces pup survival because of (i) reduced group size, (ii) increased breeder turnover and/or (iii) reduced number of female helpers. Alternatively, harvest may increase pup survival possibly due to increased per capita food availability or it could be compensatory with other forms of mortality. Harvest appeared to be additive because it reduced both pup survival and group size. In addition to harvest, turnover of breeding males and the presence of older, non-breeding males also reduced pup survival. Large groups and breeder stability increased pup survival when there was harvest, however. Inferences about the effect of harvest on recruitment require knowledge of harvest rate of young as well as the indirect effects associated with changes in group size and composition, as we show. The number of young harvested is a poor measure of the effect of harvest on recruitment in cooperative breeders.

A Modified Delphi Study for Development of a Pediatric Curriculum for Emergency Medicine Residents

OBJECTIVES

Emergency medicine (EM) trainees are expected to learn to provide acute care for patients of all ages. The American Council for Graduate Medical Education provides some guidance on topics related to caring for pediatric patients; however, education about pediatric topics varies across residency programs. The goal of this project was to develop a consensus curriculum for teaching pediatric emergency care.

METHODS

We recruited 13 physicians from six academic health centers to participate in a three-round electronic modified Delphi project. Participants were selected on the basis of expertise with both EM resident education and pediatric emergency care. The first modified Delphi survey asked participants to generate the core knowledge, skills, and experiences needed to prepare EM residents to effectively treat children in an acute care setting. The qualitative data from the first round was reformulated into a second-round questionnaire. During the second round, participants used rating scales to prioritize the curriculum content proposed during the first round. In round 3, participants were asked to make a determination about each curriculum topic using a three-point scale labeled required, optional, or not needed.

RESULTS

The first modified Delphi round yielded 400 knowledge topics, 206 clinical skills, and 44 specific types of experience residents need to prepare for acute pediatric patient care. These were narrowed to 153 topics, 84 skills, and 28 experiences through elimination of redundancy and two rounds of prioritization. The final lists contain topics classified by highly recommended, partially recommended, and not recommended. The partially recommended category is intended to help programs tailor their curriculum to the unique needs of their learners as well as account for variability between 3- and 4-year programs and the amount of time programs allocate to pediatric education.

CONCLUSION

The modified Delphi process yielded the broad outline of a consensus core pediatric emergency care curriculum.

Snowshoe hares display limited phenotypic plasticity to mismatch in seasonal camouflage

As duration of snow cover decreases owing to climate change, species undergoing seasonal colour moults can become colour mismatched with their background. The immediate adaptive solution to this mismatch is phenotypic plasticity, either in phenology of seasonal colour moults or in behaviours that reduce mismatch or its consequences. We observed nearly 200 snowshoe hares across a wide range of snow conditions and two study sites in Montana, USA, and found minimal plasticity in response to mismatch between coat colour and background. We found that moult phenology varied between study sites, likely due to differences in photoperiod and climate, but was largely fixed within study sites with only minimal plasticity to snow conditions during the spring white-to-brown moult. We also found no evidence that hares modify their behaviour in response to colour mismatch. Hiding and fleeing behaviours and resting spot preference of hares were more affected by variables related to season, site and concealment by vegetation, than by colour mismatch. We conclude that plasticity in moult phenology and behaviours in snowshoe hares is insufficient for adaptation to camouflage mismatch, suggesting that any future adaptation to climate change will require natural selection on moult phenology or behaviour.

Determining Occurrence Dynamics when False Positives Occur: Estimating the Range Dynamics of Wolves from Public Survey Data

Large-scale presence-absence monitoring programs have great promise for many conservation applications. Their value can be limited by potential incorrect inferences owing to observational errors, especially when data are collected by the public. To combat this, previous analytical methods have focused on addressing non-detection from public survey data. Misclassification errors have received less attention but are also likely to be a common component of public surveys, as well as many other data types. We derive estimators for dynamic occupancy parameters (extinction and colonization), focusing on the case where certainty can be assumed for a subset of detections. We demonstrate how to simultaneously account for non-detection (false negatives) and misclassification (false positives) when estimating occurrence parameters for gray wolves in northern Montana from 2007-2010. Our primary data source for the analysis was observations by deer and elk hunters, reported as part of the state's annual hunter survey. This data was supplemented with data from known locations of radio-collared wolves. We found that occupancy was relatively stable during the years of the study and wolves were largely restricted to the highest quality habitats in the study area. Transitions in the occupancy status of sites were rare, as occupied sites almost always remained occupied and unoccupied sites remained unoccupied. Failing to account for false positives led to over estimation of both the area inhabited by wolves and the frequency of turnover. The ability to properly account for both false negatives and false positives is an important step to improve inferences for conservation from large-scale public surveys. The approach we propose will improve our understanding of the status of wolf populations and is relevant to many other data types where false positives are a component of observations.

No trespassing: using a biofence to manipulate wolf movements

Context Conserving large carnivores can be challenging because of conflicts with human land use and competition with humans for resources. Predation on domestic stock can have negative economic impacts particularly for owners of small herds, and tools for minimising carnivore depredation of livestock are needed. Canids use scent marking to establish territories and avoid intraspecific conflict. Exploiting scent-marking behaviour may provide a means for manipulating canid movements. Aims We hypothesised that human-deployed scent marks (i.e. ‘biofence’) could be used to manipulate the movements of grey wolves (Canis lupus) in Idaho, USA. Methods We deployed 65 km of biofence within three wolf-pack territories during summer 2010 and 2011 and used location data from satellite-collared wolves and sign surveys to assess the effectiveness of biofencing. Key results Location data provided by satellite-collared wolves and sign surveys in 2010 showed little to no trespass of the biofence, even though the excluded areas were used by the packs in previous summers. We also opportunistically deployed a biofence in between a rendezvous site of a resident pack and a nearby sheep grazing allotment; the pack was not implicated in any depredations in summer 2010, even though they had killed sheep every year since 2006. Location data provided by satellite-collared wolves in summer 2011 showed that wolves did trespass biofences. Conclusions Biofencing effectively manipulated the movements of wolves in the first year of our study, but not the second. Implications Our work suggests that biofencing may be most limited by the apparent necessity to maintain a continuous presence once the biofence is established. The inherent labour and costs associated with such efforts may limit the usefulness of biofencing. Our work can be improved on through further testing that maintains biofencing over a longer timeframe (>3 months), samples several animals per treatment pack, and uses a treatment and control design.

Paramedic King Laryngeal Tube airway insertion versus endotracheal intubation in simulated pediatric respiratory arrest

INTRODUCTION

Pediatric endotracheal intubation (ETI) is difficult and can have serious adverse events when performed by paramedics in the prehospital setting. Paramedics may use the King Laryngeal Tube airway (KLT) in difficult adult airways, but only limited data describe their application in pediatric patients.

OBJECTIVE

To compare paramedic airway insertion speed and complications between KLT and ETI in a simulated model of pediatric respiratory arrest.

METHODS

This prospective, randomized trial included paramedics and senior paramedic students with limited prior KLT experience. We provided brief training on pediatric KLT insertion. Using a random allocation protocol, participants performed both ETI and KLT on a pediatric mannequin (6-month old size) in simulated respiratory arrest. The primary outcomes were 1) elapsed time to successful airway placement (seconds), and 2) proper airway positioning. We compared airway insertion performance between KLT and ETI using the Wilcoxon signed-ranks test. Subjects also indicated their preferred airway device.

RESULTS

The 25 subjects included 19 paramedics and 6 senior paramedic students. Two subjects had prior adult KLT experience. Airway insertion time was not statistically different between the KLT (median 27 secs) and ETI (median 31 secs) (p = 0.08). Esophageal intubation occurred in 2 of 25 (8%) ETI. Airway leak occurred in 3 of 25 (12%) KLT, but ventilation remained satisfactory. Eighty-four percent of the subjects preferred the KLT over ETI.

CONCLUSIONS

Paramedics and paramedic students demonstrated similar airway insertion performance between KLT and ETI in simulated, pediatric respiratory arrest. Most subjects preferred KLT. KLT may provide a viable alternative to ETI in prehospital pediatric airway management.

Emergency department crowding is associated with decreased quality of analgesia delivery for children with pain related to acute, isolated, long-bone fractures

OBJECTIVES

The authors sought to determine which quality measures of analgesia delivery are most influenced by emergency department (ED) crowding for pediatric patients with long-bone fractures.

METHODS

This cross-sectional, retrospective study included patients 0-21 years seen for acute, isolated long-bone fractures, November 2007 to October 2008, at a children's hospital ED. Nine quality measures were studied: six were based on the timeliness (1-hour receipt) and effectiveness (receipt/nonreceipt) of three fracture-related processes: pain score, any analgesic, and opioid analgesic administration. Three equity measures were also tested: language, identified primary care provider (PCP), and insurance. The primary independent variable was a crowding measure: ED occupancy. Models were adjusted for age, language, insurance, identified PCP, triage level, ambulance arrival, and time of day. The adjusted risk of each timeliness or effectiveness quality measure was measured at five percentiles of crowding and compared to the risk at the 10th and 90th percentiles. The role of equity measures as moderators of the crowding-quality models was tested.

RESULTS

The study population included 1,229 patients. Timeliness and effectiveness quality measures showed an inverse association with crowding-an effect not moderated by equity measures. Patients were 4% to 47% less likely to receive timely care and were 3% to 17% less likely to receive effective care when each crowding measure was at the 90th than at the 10th percentile (p < 0.05). For three of the six quality measures, quality declined steeply between the 75th and 90th crowding percentiles.

CONCLUSIONS

Crowding is associated with decreased timeliness and effectiveness, but not equity, of analgesia delivery for children with fracture-related pain.