Exploring Old Data with New Tricks: Long-Term Monitoring Indicates Spatial and Temporal Changes in Populations of Sympatric Prairie Grouse in the Nebraska Sandhills

The contiguous grasslands of the Sandhills region in Nebraska, USA, provide habitat for two sympatric, grassland-obligate species of grouse, the greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) and the plains sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus jamesi). Collectively referred to as prairie grouse, these birds are monitored and managed jointly by wildlife practitioners who face the novel challenge of conserving historically allopatric species in shared range. We reconstructed region-wide and route-specific prairie grouse population trends in the Sandhills, using a 63-year timeseries of breeding ground counts aggregated from old reports and paper archives. Our objective was to repurpose historical data collected for harvest management to address questions pertinent to the conservation of prairie grouse, species whose populations have declined precipitously throughout their respective ranges. Because we cannot change the sampling protocol of historical data to answer new questions, we applied 3 different methods of data analysis—traditional regional mean counts used to adjust harvest regulations, spatially implicit, site-specific counts, and spatially explicit trends. Prairie-chicken populations have increased since the 1950s, whereas sharp-tailed grouse populations have remained stable or slightly declined. However, each species exhibited unique shifts in abundance and distribution over time, and regional indices masked important aspects of population change. Our findings indicate that legacy data have the capacity to tell new stories apart from the questions they were collected to answer. By integrating concepts from landscape ecology—a discipline that emerged decades after the collection of our count data began—we demonstrate the potential of historical data to address questions of modern-day conservation concern, using prairie grouse as a case study.

Why did the chicken not cross the road? Anthropogenic development influences the movement of a grassland bird

Movement and selection are inherently linked behaviors that form the foundation of a species' space-use patterns. Anthropogenic development in natural ecosystems can result in a variety of behavioral responses that can involve changes in either movement (speed or direction of travel) or selection (resources used), which in turn may cause population-level consequences including loss of landscape connectivity. Understanding how a species alters these different behaviors in response to human activity is essential for effective conservation. In this study, we investigated the effects of anthropogenic development such as roads, power lines and oil wells on the greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido) movement and selection behaviors in the post-nesting and non-breeding season. Our first objective was to assess using integrated step selection analysis (iSSA) if greater prairie-chickens altered their movement behaviors or their selection patterns when encountering oil wells, power lines, or roads. Our second objective was to determine whether prairie-chickens avoided crossing linear features such as roads or power lines by comparing the number of crossing events in greater prairie-chicken movement tracks to the number of movements that crossed these features in simulated movement tracks. Based on the iSSA analysis, we found that greater prairie-chickens avoided oil wells, power lines, and roads in both seasons, and altered their rate of movement when near anthropogenic structures. However, changes in speed varied by season, with prairie-chickens increasing their movement rates in the post-nesting season when near to development and decreasing movement rates in the non-breeding season. Furthermore, prairie-chickens crossed roads and power lines at much lower rates than expected. These changes in behavior can result in habitat loss for greater prairie-chickens, as well as the potential loss of landscape connectivity. By considering both movement and selection, we were able to develop an ecological understanding of how increasing human activity may influence the space use of this species of conservation concern. Furthermore, this research provides insight into the decision-making processes by animals when they encounter anthropogenic development.

Tracking spatial regimes as an early warning for a species of conservation concern

In this era of global environmental change and rapid regime shifts, managing core areas that species require to survive and persist is a grand challenge for conservation. Wildlife monitoring data are often limited or local in scale. The emerging ability to map and track spatial regimes (i.e., the spatial manifestation of state transitions) using advanced geospatial vegetation data has the potential to provide earlier warnings of habitat loss because many species of conservation concern strongly avoid spatial regime boundaries. Using 23 yr of data for the lek locations of Greater Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido; GPC) in a remnant grassland ecosystem, we demonstrate how mapping changes in the boundaries between grassland and woodland spatial regimes provide a spatially explicit early warning signal for habitat loss for an iconic and vulnerable grassland-obligate known to be highly sensitive to woody plant encroachment. We tested whether a newly proposed metric for the quantification of spatial regimes captured well-known responses of GPC to woody plant expansion into grasslands. Resource selection functions showed that the grass:woody spatial regime boundary strength explained the probability of 80% of relative lek occurrence, and GPC strongly avoided grass:woody spatial regime boundaries at broad scales. Both findings are consistent with well-known expectations derived from GPC ecology. These results provide strong evidence for vegetation-derived delineations of spatial regimes to serve as generalized signals of early warning for state transitions that have major consequences to biodiversity conservation. Mapping spatial regime boundaries over time provided interpretable early warnings of habitat loss. Woody plant regimes displaced grassland regimes starting from the edges of the study area and constricting inward. Correspondingly, the relative probability of lek occurrence constricted in space. Similarly, the temporal trajectory of spatial regime boundary strength increased over time and moved closer to the observed limit of GPC lek site usage relative to grass:woody boundary strength. These novel spatial metrics allow managers to rapidly screen for early warning signals of spatial regime shifts and adapt management practices to defend and grow habitat cores at broad scales.

A multispecies approach to manage effects of land cover and weather on upland game birds

Loss and degradation of grasslands in the Great Plains region have resulted in major declines in abundance of grassland bird species. To ensure future viability of grassland bird populations, it is crucial to evaluate specific effects of environmental factors among species to determine drivers of population decline and develop effective conservation strategies. We used threshold models to quantify the effects of land cover and weather changes in "lesser prairie-chicken" and "greater prairie-chicken" (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus and T. cupido, respectively), northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus), and ring-necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus). We demonstrated a novel approach for estimating landscape conditions needed to optimize abundance across multiple species at a variety of spatial scales. Abundance of all four species was highest following wet summers and dry winters. Prairie chicken and ring-necked pheasant abundance was highest following cool winters, while northern bobwhite abundance was highest following warm winters. Greater prairie chicken and northern bobwhite abundance was also highest following cooler summers. Optimal abundance of each species occurred in landscapes that represented a grassland and cropland mosaic, though prairie chicken abundance was optimized in landscapes with more grassland and less edge habitat than northern bobwhites and ring-necked pheasants. Because these effects differed among species, managing for an optimal landscape for multiple species may not be the optimal scenario for any one species.

Better living through conifer removal: A demographic analysis of sage-grouse vital rates

Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) obligate wildlife species such as the imperiled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) face numerous threats including altered ecosystem processes that have led to conifer expansion into shrub-steppe. Conifer removal is accelerating despite a lack of empirical evidence on grouse population response. Using a before-after-control-impact design at the landscape scale, we evaluated effects of conifer removal on two important demographic parameters, annual survival of females and nest survival, by monitoring 219 female sage-grouse and 225 nests in the northern Great Basin from 2010 to 2014. Estimates from the best treatment models showed positive trends in the treatment area relative to the control area resulting in an increase of 6.6% annual female survival and 18.8% nest survival relative to the control area by 2014. Using stochastic simulations of our estimates and published demographics, we estimated a 25% increase in the population growth rate in the treatment area relative to the control area. This is the first study to link sage-grouse demographics with conifer removal and supports recommendations to actively manage conifer expansion for sage-grouse conservation. Sage-grouse have become a primary catalyst for conservation funding to address conifer expansion in the West, and these findings have important implications for other ecosystem services being generated on the wings of species conservation.

Dynamic Disturbance Processes Create Dynamic Lek Site Selection in a Prairie Grouse

It is well understood that landscape processes can affect habitat selection patterns, movements, and species persistence. These selection patterns may be altered or even eliminated as a result of changes in disturbance regimes and a concomitant management focus on uniform, moderate disturbance across landscapes. To assess how restored landscape heterogeneity influences habitat selection patterns, we examined 21 years (1991, 1993–2012) of Greater Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido) lek location data in tallgrass prairie with restored fire and grazing processes. Our study took place at The Nature Conservancy’s Tallgrass Prairie Preserve located at the southern extent of Flint Hills in northeastern Oklahoma. We specifically addressed stability of lek locations in the context of the fire-grazing interaction, and the environmental factors influencing lek locations. We found that lek locations were dynamic in a landscape with interacting fire and grazing. While previous conservation efforts have treated leks as stable with high site fidelity in static landscapes, a majority of lek locations in our study (i.e., 65%) moved by nearly one kilometer on an annual basis in this dynamic setting. Lek sites were in elevated areas with low tree cover and low road density. Additionally, lek site selection was influenced by an interaction of fire and patch edge, indicating that in recently burned patches, leks were located near patch edges. These results suggest that dynamic and interactive processes such as fire and grazing that restore heterogeneity to grasslands do influence habitat selection patterns in prairie grouse, a phenomenon that is likely to apply throughout the Greater Prairie-Chicken’s distribution when dynamic processes are restored. As conservation moves toward restoring dynamic historic disturbance patterns, it will be important that siting and planning of anthropogenic structures (e.g., wind energy, oil and gas) and management plans not view lek locations as static points, but rather as sites that shift around the landscape in response to shifting vegetation structure. Acknowledging shifting lek locations in these landscapes will help ensure conservation efforts are successful by targeting the appropriate areas for protection and management.

Predicting Greater Prairie-Chicken Lek Site Suitability to Inform Conservation Actions

The demands of a growing human population dictates that expansion of energy infrastructure, roads, and other development frequently takes place in native rangelands. Particularly, transmission lines and roads commonly divide rural landscapes and increase fragmentation. This has direct and indirect consequences on native wildlife that can be mitigated through thoughtful planning and proactive approaches to identifying areas of high conservation priority. We used nine years (2003-2011) of Greater Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido) lek locations totaling 870 unique leks sites in Kansas and seven geographic information system (GIS) layers describing land cover, topography, and anthropogenic structures to model habitat suitability across the state. The models obtained had low omission rates (<0.18) and high area under the curve scores (AUC >0.81), indicating high model performance and reliability of predicted habitat suitability for Greater Prairie-Chickens. We found that elevation was the most influential in predicting lek locations, contributing three times more predictive power than any other variable. However, models were improved by the addition of land cover and anthropogenic features (transmission lines, roads, and oil and gas structures). Overall, our analysis provides a hierarchal understanding of Greater Prairie-Chicken habitat suitability that is broadly based on geomorphological features followed by land cover suitability. We found that when land features and vegetation cover are suitable for Greater Prairie-Chickens, fragmentation by anthropogenic sources such as roadways and transmission lines are a concern. Therefore, it is our recommendation that future human development in Kansas avoid areas that our models identified as highly suitable for Greater Prairie-Chickens and focus development on land cover types that are of lower conservation concern.

Effects of wind energy development on nesting ecology of greater prairie-chickens in fragmented grasslands

Wind energy is targeted to meet 20% of U.S. energy needs by 2030, but new sites for development of renewable energy may overlap with important habitats of declining populations of grassland birds. Greater Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus cupido) are an obligate grassland bird species predicted to respond negatively to energy development. We used a modified before-after control-impact design to test for impacts of a wind energy development on the reproductive ecology of prairie-chickens in a 5-year study. We located 59 and 185 nests before and after development, respectively, of a 201 MW wind energy facility in Greater Prairie-Chicken nesting habitat and assessed nest site selection and nest survival relative to proximity to wind energy infrastructure and habitat conditions. Proximity to turbines did not negatively affect nest site selection (β = 0.03, 95% CI = -1.2-1.3) or nest survival (β = -0.3, 95% CI = -0.6-0.1). Instead, nest site selection and survival were strongly related to vegetative cover and other local conditions determined by management for cattle production. Integration of our project results with previous reports of behavioral avoidance of oil and gas facilities by other species of prairie grouse suggests new avenues for research to mitigate impacts of energy development.