Proposed clinical management of pregnancies after combined screening for pre-eclampsia at 30-34 weeks' gestation

Aspirin for evidence-based preeclampsia prevention trial: effects of aspirin on maternal serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein A and placental growth factor trajectories in pregnancy

BACKGROUND

The exact mechanism by which aspirin prevents preeclampsia remains unclear. Its effects on serum placental biomarkers throughout pregnancy are also unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effects of aspirin on serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein A and placental growth factor trajectories using repeated measures from women at increased risk of preterm preeclampsia.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a longitudinal secondary analysis of the Combined Multimarker Screening and Randomized Patient Treatment with Aspirin for Evidence-based Preeclampsia Prevention trial using repeated measures of pregnancy-associated plasma protein A and placental growth factor. In the trial, 1620 women at increased risk of preterm preeclampsia were identified using the Fetal Medicine Foundation algorithm at 11 to 13+6 weeks of gestation, of whom 798 were randomly assigned to receive aspirin 150 mg and 822 to receive placebo daily from before 14 weeks to 36 weeks of gestation. Serum biomarkers were measured at baseline and follow-up visits at 19 to 24, 32 to 34, and 36 weeks of gestation. Generalized additive mixed models with treatment by gestational age interaction terms were used to investigate the effect of aspirin on biomarker trajectories over time.

RESULTS

Overall, there were 5507 pregnancy-associated plasma protein A and 5523 placental growth factor measurements. Raw pregnancy-associated plasma protein A values increased over time, and raw placental growth factor increased until 32 weeks of gestation followed by a decline. The multiple of the median mean values of the same biomarkers were consistently below 1.0 multiple of the median, reflecting the high-risk profile of the study population. Trajectories of mean pregnancy-associated plasma protein A and placental growth factor multiple of the median values did not differ significantly between the aspirin and placebo groups (aspirin treatment by gestational age interaction P values: .259 and .335, respectively).

CONCLUSION

In women at increased risk of preterm preeclampsia, aspirin 150 mg daily had no significant effects on pregnancy-associated plasma protein A or placental growth factor trajectories when compared to placebo.

Pre-eclampsia

Pre-eclampsia is a life-threatening disease of pregnancy unique to humans and a leading cause of maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality. Women who survive pre-eclampsia have reduced life expectancy, with increased risks of stroke, cardiovascular disease and diabetes, while babies from a pre-eclamptic pregnancy have increased risks of preterm birth, perinatal death and neurodevelopmental disability and cardiovascular and metabolic disease later in life. Pre-eclampsia is a complex multisystem disease, diagnosed by sudden-onset hypertension (>20 weeks of gestation) and at least one other associated complication, including proteinuria, maternal organ dysfunction or uteroplacental dysfunction. Pre-eclampsia is found only when a placenta is or was recently present and is classified as preterm (delivery <37 weeks of gestation), term (delivery ≥37 weeks of gestation) and postpartum pre-eclampsia. The maternal syndrome of pre-eclampsia is driven by a dysfunctional placenta, which releases factors into maternal blood causing systemic inflammation and widespread maternal endothelial dysfunction. Available treatments target maternal hypertension and seizures, but the only 'cure' for pre-eclampsia is delivery of the dysfunctional placenta and baby, often prematurely. Despite decades of research, the aetiology of pre-eclampsia, particularly of term and postpartum pre-eclampsia, remains poorly defined. Significant advances have been made in the prediction and prevention of preterm pre-eclampsia, which is predicted in early pregnancy through combined screening and is prevented with daily low-dose aspirin, starting before 16 weeks of gestation. By contrast, the prediction of term and postpartum pre-eclampsia is limited and there are no preventive treatments. Future research must investigate the pathogenesis of pre-eclampsia, in particular of term and postpartum pre-eclampsia, and evaluate new prognostic tests and treatments in adequately powered clinical trials.

Comparison of ophthalmic artery Doppler with PlGF and sFlt-1/PlGF ratio at 35-37 weeks' gestation in prediction of imminent pre-eclampsia

OBJECTIVE

To compare the predictive performance for delivery with pre-eclampsia (PE) at < 3 weeks and at any stage after assessment at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation of serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1)/PlGF ratio with that of a competing-risks model utilizing maternal risk factors, mean arterial pressure (MAP) and ophthalmic artery peak systolic velocity (PSV) ratio.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of women attending for a routine hospital visit at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. This visit included recording of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, ultrasound examination of fetal anatomy and growth, assessment of flow velocity waveforms from the maternal ophthalmic arteries and measurement of MAP, serum PlGF and serum sFlt-1. The performance of screening for delivery with PE at < 3 weeks and at any time after the examination was assessed using areas under the receiver-operating-characteristics curves and detection rates (DRs), at a 10% false-positive rate (FPR). McNemar's test was used to compare DRs, at a 10% FPR, between screening by PlGF concentration, the sFlt-1/PlGF concentration ratio and the competing-risks model utilizing maternal risk factors, MAP and ophthalmic artery PSV ratio. Model-based estimates of screening performance for different methods of screening were also produced.

RESULTS

The study population of 2338 pregnancies contained 75 (3.2%) cases that developed PE, including 30 (1.3%) that delivered with PE at < 3 weeks from assessment, and 2263 cases unaffected by PE. The DR of PE at < 3 weeks from assessment, at a 10% FPR, of sFlt-1/PlGF ratio (70.0% (95% CI, 50.6-85.3%)) was superior to that of PlGF (50.0% (95% CI, 31.3-68.7%)) or PSV ratio (56.7% (95% CI, 37.4-74.5%)) but inferior to that of the combination of maternal risk factors, MAP multiples of the median (MoM) and PSV ratio delta (96.7% (95% CI, 82.8-99.9%)). Similarly, the DR of PE at any stage after assessment of sFlt-1/PlGF ratio (62.7% (95% CI, 50.7-73.6%)) was superior to that of PlGF (52.0% (95% CI, 40.2-63.7%)) or PSV ratio (41.3% (95% CI, 30.1-53.3%)) but inferior to that of the combination of maternal risk factors, MAP MoM and PSV ratio delta (78.7% (95% CI, 67.7-87.3%)). The empirical results for DR at a 10% FPR were consistent with the modeled results, both for delivery with PE at < 3 weeks and at any time after assessment.

CONCLUSION

Ophthalmic artery Doppler in combination with maternal risk factors and blood pressure could potentially replace measurement of PlGF and sFlt-1/PlGF ratio in the prediction of imminent PE. © 2022 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Prediction of preeclampsia throughout gestation with maternal characteristics and biophysical and biochemical markers: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

The current approach to predict preeclampsia combines maternal risk factors and evidence from biophysical markers (mean arterial pressure, Doppler velocimetry of the uterine arteries) and maternal blood proteins (placental growth factor, soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A). Such models require the transformation of biomarker data into multiples of the mean values by using population- and site-specific models. Previous studies have focused on a narrow window in gestation and have not included the maternal blood concentration of soluble endoglin, an important antiangiogenic factor up-regulated in preeclampsia.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed (1) to develop models for the calculation of multiples of the mean values for mean arterial pressure and biochemical markers; (2) to build and assess the predictive models for preeclampsia based on maternal risk factors, the biophysical (mean arterial pressure) and biochemical (placental growth factor, soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1, and soluble endoglin) markers collected throughout pregnancy; and (3) to evaluate how prediction accuracy is affected by the presence of chronic hypertension and gestational age.

STUDY DESIGN

This longitudinal case-cohort study included 1150 pregnant women: women without preeclampsia with (n=49) and without chronic hypertension (n=871) and those who developed preeclampsia (n=166) or superimposed preeclampsia (n=64). Mean arterial pressure and immunoassay-based maternal plasma placental growth factor, soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1, and soluble endoglin concentrations were available throughout pregnancy (median of 5 observations per patient). A prior-risk model for preeclampsia was established by using Poisson regression based on maternal characteristics and obstetrical history. Next, multiple regression was used to fit biophysical and biochemical marker data as a function of maternal characteristics by using data collected at 8 to 15⁺⁶, 16 to 19⁺⁶, 20 to 23⁺⁶, 24 to 27⁺⁶, 28 to 31⁺⁶, and 32 to 36⁺⁶ week intervals, and observed values were converted into multiples of the mean values. Then, multivariable prediction models for preeclampsia were fit based on the biomarker multiples of the mean data and prior-risk estimates. Separate models were derived for overall, preterm, and term preeclampsia, which were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves and sensitivity at fixed false-positive rates.

RESULTS

(1) The inclusion of soluble endoglin in prediction models for all preeclampsia, together with the prior-risk estimates, mean arterial pressure, placental growth factor, and soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1, increased the sensitivity (at a fixed false-positive rate of 10%) for early prediction of superimposed preeclampsia, with the largest increase (from 44% to 54%) noted at 20 to 23⁺⁶ weeks (McNemar test, P<.05); (2) combined evidence from prior-risk estimates and biomarkers predicted preterm preeclampsia with a sensitivity (false-positive rate, 10%) of 55%, 48%, 62%, 72%, and 84% at 8 to 15⁺⁶, 16 to 19⁺⁶, 20 to 23⁺⁶, 24 to 27⁺⁶, and 28 to 31⁺⁶ week intervals, respectively; (3) the sensitivity for term preeclampsia (false-positive rate, 10%) was 36%, 36%, 41%, 43%, 39%, and 51% at 8 to 15⁺⁶, 16 to 19⁺⁶, 20 to 23⁺⁶, 24 to 27⁺⁶, 28 to 31⁺⁶, and 32 to 36⁺⁶ week intervals, respectively; (4) the detection rate for superimposed preeclampsia among women with chronic hypertension was similar to that in women without chronic hypertension, especially earlier in pregnancy, reaching at most 54% at 20 to 23⁺⁶ weeks (false-positive rate, 10%); and (5) prediction models performed comparably to the Fetal Medicine Foundation calculators when the same maternal risk factors and biomarkers (mean arterial pressure, placental growth factor, and soluble vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1 multiples of the mean values) were used as input.

CONCLUSION

We introduced prediction models for preeclampsia throughout pregnancy. These models can be useful to identify women at risk during the first trimester who could benefit from aspirin treatment or later in pregnancy to inform patient management. Relative to prediction performance at 8 to 15⁺⁶ weeks, there was a substantial improvement in the detection rate for preterm and term preeclampsia by using data collected after 20 and 32 weeks' gestation, respectively. The inclusion of plasma soluble endoglin improves the early prediction of superimposed preeclampsia, which may be valuable when Doppler velocimetry of the uterine arteries is not available.

Fetal cardiac function at 35-37 weeks' gestation in pregnancies that subsequently develop pre-eclampsia

OBJECTIVE

To compare fetal cardiac morphology and function between pregnancies that subsequently developed pre-eclampsia (PE) and those that remained normotensive.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in 1574 pregnancies at 35-37 weeks' gestation, including 76 that subsequently developed PE. We carried out comprehensive assessment of fetal cardiac morphology and function including novel imaging modalities, such as speckle-tracking echocardiography, and measured uterine artery pulsatility index, mean arterial pressure (MAP), serum placental growth factor (PlGF), soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) and cerebroplacental ratio (CPR). The findings in the group that subsequently developed PE were compared to those in pregnancies that remained normotensive.

RESULTS

In fetuses of mothers who subsequently developed PE, compared to those from normotensive pregnancies, there was a more globular right ventricle, as shown by reduced right ventricular sphericity index, reduced right ventricular systolic contractility, as shown by reduced global longitudinal strain, and reduced left ventricular diastolic function, as shown by increased E/A ratio. On multivariable regression analysis, these indices demonstrated an association with PE, independent of maternal characteristics and fetal size. In pregnancies that subsequently developed PE, compared to those that remained normotensive, MAP, sFlt-1 and the incidence of low birth weight were higher, whereas serum PlGF, CPR and the interval between assessment and delivery were lower. These findings demonstrate that, in pregnancies that develop PE, there is evidence of impaired placentation, reflected in low PlGF and reduced birth weight, placental ischemia, evidenced by increased sFlt-1 which becomes apparent in the interval of 2-4 weeks preceding the clinical onset of PE, and consequent fetal hypoxia-induced redistribution in the fetal circulation, reflected in the low CPR.

CONCLUSION

Although the etiology of the observed fetal cardiac changes in pregnancies that subsequently develop PE remains unclear, it is possible that the reduction in right-heart systolic function is the consequence of high afterload due to increased placental resistance, whilst the early left ventricular diastolic changes could be due to fetal hypoxia-induced redistribution in the fetal circulation. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Second- and third-trimester serum levels of growth-differentiation factor-15 in prediction of pre-eclampsia

OBJECTIVE

Pre-eclampsia (PE) is a significant contributor to adverse maternal and perinatal outcome; however, accurate prediction and early diagnosis of this condition remain a challenge. The aim of this study was to compare serum levels of growth-differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) at three different gestational ages between asymptomatic women who subsequently developed preterm or term PE and healthy controls.

METHODS

This was a case-control study drawn from a prospective observational study on adverse pregnancy outcomes in women attending for their routine second- and third-trimester hospital visits. Serum GDF-15 was determined in 300 samples using a commercial GDF-15 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay: 120 samples at 19-24 weeks of gestation, 120 samples at 30-34 weeks and 60 samples at 35-37 weeks. Multiple linear regression was applied to logarithmically transformed GDF-15 control values to evaluate the influence of gestational age at blood sampling and maternal characteristics on GDF-15 results. GDF-15 multiples of the normal median (MoM) values, adjusted for gestational age and maternal characteristics, were compared between pregnancies that subsequently developed preterm or term PE and healthy controls.

RESULTS

Values of GDF-15 increased with gestational age. There were no significant differences in GDF-15 MoM values between cases of preterm or term PE and normotensive pregnancies at 19-24 or 35-37 weeks of gestation. At 30-34 weeks, GDF-15 MoM values were significantly increased in cases of preterm PE, but not in those who later developed term PE. Elevated GDF-15 MoM values were associated significantly with a shorter interval between sampling at 30-34 weeks and delivery with PE (P = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

Serum GDF-15 levels at 19-24 or 35-37 weeks of gestation are not predictive of preterm or term PE. At 30-34 weeks, GDF-15 levels are higher in women who subsequently develop preterm PE; however, this difference is small and GDF-15 is unlikely to be useful in clinical practice when used in isolation. Copyright © 2020 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The competing risk approach for prediction of preeclampsia

The established method of the assessment of the risk for development of preeclampsia is to identify risk factors from maternal demographic characteristics and medical history; in the presence of such factors, the patient is classified as high risk and in their absence as low risk. Although this approach is simple to perform, it has poor performance of the prediction of preeclampsia and does not provide patient-specific risks. This review describes a new approach that allows the estimation of patient-specific risks of delivery with preeclampsia before any specified gestational age by maternal demographic characteristics and medical history with biomarkers obtained either individually or in combination at any stage in pregnancy. In the competing risks approach, every woman has a personalized distribution of gestational age at delivery with preeclampsia; whether she experiences preeclampsia or not before a specified gestational age depends on competition between delivery before or after the development of preeclampsia. The personalized distribution comes from the application of Bayes theorem to combine a previous distribution, which is determined from maternal factors, with likelihoods from biomarkers. As new data become available, what were posterior probabilities take the role as the previous probability, and data collected at different stages are combined by repeating the application of Bayes theorem to form a new posterior at each stage, which allows for dynamic prediction of preeclampsia. The competing risk model can be used for precision medicine and risk stratification at different stages of pregnancy. In the first trimester, the model has been applied to identify a high-risk group that would benefit from preventative therapeutic interventions. In the second trimester, the model has been used to stratify the population into high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups in need of different intensities of subsequent monitoring, thereby minimizing unexpected adverse perinatal events. The competing risks model can also be used in surveillance of women presenting to specialist clinics with signs or symptoms of hypertensive disorders; combination of maternal factors and biomarkers provide patient-specific risks for preeclampsia that lead to personalized stratification of the intensity of monitoring, with risks updated on each visit on the basis of biomarker measurements.

Impact of new definitions of pre-eclampsia on incidence and performance of first-trimester screening

OBJECTIVE

The traditional definition of pre-eclampsia (PE) is based on the development of hypertension and proteinuria. This has been revised recently to include cases without proteinuria but with evidence of renal, hepatic or hematological dysfunction. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of new definitions of PE on, first, the incidence and severity of the disease and, second, the performance of the competing-risks model for first-trimester assessment of risk for PE.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of 66 964 singleton pregnancies that were classified as having PE, gestational hypertension (GH) or no PE or GH, according to the traditional criteria of the International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy (ISSHP-old), which defines PE as the presence of both hypertension and proteinuria. We reviewed the records of pregnancies with GH, and those cases with high creatinine or liver enzymes or low platelet count were reclassified as having PE, according to the new criteria of ISSHP (ISSHP-new) and the new criteria of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG). The groups of PE according to the traditional and new criteria were compared for, first, gestational age at delivery, birth-weight percentile and incidence of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate with birth weight < 10^th percentile and perinatal death, and, second, the predictive performance for preterm PE of the competing-risks model based on the combination of maternal risk factors, uterine artery pulsatility index, mean arterial pressure and serum placental growth factor at 11-13 weeks' gestation (triple test).

RESULTS

According to ISSHP-old, 1870 (2.8%) cases had PE, 2182 (3.3%) had GH and 62 912 (94.0%) had no PE or GH. The incidence of PE according to ACOG was 3.0% (2029/66 964) and ISSHP-new was 3.4% (2301/66 964). Median gestational age at delivery in the extra cases of PE according to ACOG (difference, 1.3 weeks; 95% CI, 0.71-1.71 weeks) and in the extra cases of PE according to ISSHP-new (difference, 1.5 weeks; 95% CI, 1.29-1.71 weeks) was higher than in cases with PE according to ISSHP-old (38.4 weeks). The incidence of a SGA neonate in the extra cases of PE according to ACOG (relative risk, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.42-0.79) and in the extra cases of PE according to ISSHP-new (relative risk, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.42-0.65) was lower than in the cases of PE according to ISSHP-old (33.64%). In first-trimester screening for preterm PE by the triple test, the detection rate, at a 10% false-positive rate, was 75.9% (95% CI, 70.8-80.6%) for ISSHP-old, 74.3% (95% CI, 69.2-79.0%) for ACOG and 74.0% (95% CI, 68.9-78.6%) for ISSHP-new.

CONCLUSIONS

The new definitions of PE resulted in, first, an increase in pregnancies classified as having PE but the additional cases had milder disease, and, second, a non-significant decrease in the performance of first-trimester screening for PE. © 2019 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Two-stage approach for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate and adverse perinatal outcome by routine ultrasound examination at 35-37 weeks' gestation

BACKGROUND

Justification of prenatal screening for small-for-gestational-age (SGA) fetuses near term is based on, first, evidence that such fetuses/neonates are at increased risk of stillbirth and adverse perinatal outcome, and, second, the expectation that these risks can be reduced by medical interventions, such as early delivery. However, there are no randomized studies demonstrating that routine screening for SGA fetuses and appropriate interventions in the high-risk group can reduce adverse perinatal outcome. Before such meaningful studies can be undertaken, it is essential that the best approach for effective identification of SGA neonates is determined, and that the contribution of SGA neonates to the overall rate of adverse perinatal outcome is established. In a previous study of pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation, we found that, first, screening by estimated fetal weight (EFW) < 10^th percentile provided poor prediction of SGA neonates and, second, prediction of > 85% of SGA neonates requires use of EFW < 40^th percentile.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the contribution of SGA fetuses to the overall rate of adverse perinatal outcome and, to propose a two-stage approach for prediction of a SGA neonate at routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of 45 847 singleton pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. First, we examined the relationship between birth-weight percentile and adverse perinatal outcome, defined as stillbirth, neonatal death or admission to the neonatal unit for ≥ 48 h. Second, we used a two-stage approach for prediction of a SGA neonate and adverse perinatal outcome; in the first stage, fetal biometry was used to distinguish between pregnancies at very low risk (EFW ≥ 40^th percentile) and those at increased risk (EFW < 40^th percentile) and, in the second stage, the pregnancies with EFW < 40^th percentile were stratified into high-, intermediate- and low-risk groups based on the results of EFW and pulsatility index in the uterine arteries, umbilical artery and fetal middle cerebral artery. Different percentiles of EFW and Doppler indices were used to define each risk category, and the performance of screening for a SGA neonate and adverse perinatal outcome in pregnancies delivered at ≤ 2, 2.1-4 and > 4 weeks after assessment was determined. We propose that the high-risk group would require monitoring from initial assessment to delivery, the intermediate-risk group would require monitoring from 2 weeks after initial assessment to delivery, the low-risk group would require monitoring from 4 weeks after initial assessment to delivery, and the very low-risk group would not require any further reassessment.

RESULTS

First, although in neonates with low birth weight (< 10^th percentile) the risk of adverse perinatal outcome is increased, 84% of adverse perinatal events occur in the group with birth weight ≥ 10^th percentile. Second, in screening by EFW < 10^th percentile, the predictive performance for a SGA neonate is modest for those born at ≤ 2 weeks after assessment (83% and 69% for neonates with birth weight < 3^rd and < 10^th percentiles, respectively), but poor for those born at 2.1-4 weeks (65% and 45%, respectively) and > 4 weeks (40% and 30%, respectively) after assessment. Third, improved performance of screening, especially for those delivered at > 2 weeks after assessment, is potentially achieved by a proposed new approach for stratifying pregnancies into management groups based on findings of EFW and Doppler indices (prediction of birth weight < 3^rd and < 10^th percentiles for deliveries at ≤ 2, 2.1-4 and > 4 weeks after assessment: 89% and 75%, 83% and 74%, and 88% and 82%, respectively). Fourth, the predictive performance for adverse perinatal outcome of EFW < 10^th percentile is very poor (26%, 9% and 5% for deliveries at ≤ 2, 2.1-4 and > 4 weeks after assessment, respectively) and this is improved by the proposed new approach (31%, 22% and 29%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents an approach for stratifying pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation into four management groups based on findings of EFW and Doppler indices. This approach potentially has a higher predictive performance for a SGA neonate and adverse perinatal outcome than that of screening by EFW < 10^th percentile. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Competing-risks model in screening for pre-eclampsia in twin pregnancy by maternal characteristics and medical history

OBJECTIVE

A survival-time regression model for gestational age at delivery with pre-eclampsia (PE) in singleton pregnancy, using maternal demographic characteristics and medical history, was reported previously. The objective of this study was to extend this model to dichorionic (DC) and monochorionic (MC) twin pregnancy.

METHODS

The study population included 1789 DC and 430 MC twin pregnancies and 93 297 singleton pregnancies. A survival-time model for gestational age at delivery with PE was developed from variables of maternal characteristics and medical history. The risk of PE with delivery < 37 weeks and < 42 weeks in twin pregnancies was determined and compared with that in singleton pregnancies.

RESULTS

In singleton pregnancies comprising women of Caucasian racial origin, mean weight of 69 kg at 12 weeks' gestation, mean height of 164 cm, nulliparous, with spontaneous conception, no family history of PE and no history of diabetes mellitus, systemic lupus erythematosus or antiphospholipid syndrome, the mean of the Gaussian distribution of gestational age at delivery with PE was 55 weeks. In DC twins with PE, mean gestational age at delivery was shifted to the left by 8.2 (95% CI, 7.2-9.1) weeks and in MC twins it was shifted to the left by 10.0 (95% CI, 8.5-11.4) weeks. The risk of delivery with PE occurring at, or before, a specified gestational age is given by the area under the fitted distribution curve. For a reference population with the above characteristics, the estimated risk of PE < 37 weeks' gestation, assuming no other cause of delivery, was 0.6% for singletons, 9.0% for DC twins and 14.2% for MC twins; the respective values for PE < 42 weeks were 3.6%, 27.0% and 36.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

A model based on maternal characteristics and medical history has been developed for estimation of patient-specific risks for PE in DC and MC twin pregnancy. Such estimation of the a-priori risk for PE is an essential first step in the use of Bayes' theorem to combine maternal factors with biomarkers for the continuing development of more effective methods of screening for the disease. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Proposed clinical management of pregnancies after combined screening for pre-eclampsia at 35-37 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the patient-specific risk of pre-eclampsia (PE) at 35-37 weeks' gestation by a combination of maternal characteristics and medical history with multiples of the median (MoM) values of mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), and stratify women into high-, intermediate- and low-risk management groups.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending a third-trimester ultrasound scan at 35-37 weeks as part of routine pregnancy care. Patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 4 weeks from assessment and PE at < 42 weeks' gestation were calculated using the competing-risks model to combine the prior risk from maternal characteristics and medical history with MoM values of MAP, UtA-PI, PlGF and sFlt-1. On the basis of these risks, the population was stratified into high-, intermediate- and low-risk groups. Different risk cut-offs were used to vary the proportion of the population stratified into each risk category and the performance of screening for delivery with PE at < 40 and ≥ 40 weeks' gestation was estimated.

RESULTS

The study population of 3703 singleton pregnancies included 38 (1.0%) with PE < 40 weeks' gestation and 22 (0.6%) with PE ≥ 40 weeks. Using a risk cut-off of 1 in 50 for PE delivering at < 4 weeks after assessment to define the high-risk group and a risk cut-off of < 1 in 100 for PE delivering at < 42 weeks' gestation to define the low-risk group, the proportion of the population stratified into high, intermediate and low risk was 12.7%, 28.8% and 58.5%, respectively. The high-risk group contained 92% of pregnancies with PE at < 40 weeks' gestation and 73% of those with PE at ≥ 40 weeks. The intermediate-risk group contained a further 27% of women with PE at ≥ 40 weeks. In the low-risk group, none of the women developed PE at < 40 or ≥ 40 weeks' gestation.

CONCLUSION

The study presents risk stratification of PE by the combined test at 35-37 weeks, aiming to identify a high-risk group in need of intensive monitoring from the time of the initial assessment and up to 40 weeks' gestation, an intermediate-risk group in need of reassessment at 40 weeks' gestation and a low-risk group that can be reassured that they are unlikely to develop PE. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Proposed clinical management of pregnancies after combined screening for pre-eclampsia at 19-24 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the patient-specific risk of pre-eclampsia (PE) at 19-24 weeks' gestation by a combination of maternal characteristics and medical history with multiples of the median (MoM) values of mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), and stratify women into high-, intermediate- and low-risk management groups.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending a second-trimester ultrasound scan at 19-24 weeks as part of routine pregnancy care. Patient-specific risks of delivery with PE < 32 weeks and < 36 weeks' gestation were calculated using the competing-risks model to combine the prior risk from maternal characteristics and medical history with MoM values of MAP, UtA-PI, PlGF and sFlt-1. On the basis of these risks, the population was stratified into high-, intermediate- and low-risk groups. Different risk cut-offs were used to vary the proportion of the population stratified into each risk category and the performance of screening for delivery with PE at < 32 weeks' gestation, at 32-35 weeks and at ≥ 36 weeks was estimated. In addition to empirical performance, we also derived model-based performance because the number of cases of PE delivering < 32 weeks was low.

RESULTS

The study population of 7748 singleton pregnancies included 268 (3.5%) that subsequently developed PE. Using a risk cut-off of 1 in 100 for PE delivering < 32 weeks' gestation and a risk cut-off of 1 in 300 for PE delivering < 36 weeks, the proportion of the population stratified into high-, intermediate- and low-risk was 0.9%, 17.2% and 81.9%, respectively. The high-risk group contained 97% of pregnancies with PE < 32 weeks and 45% of those with PE at 32-35 weeks. The intermediate-risk group contained a further 46% of women with PE at 32-35 weeks. The low-risk group contained only 0.03% of pregnancies with PE < 32 weeks and 9% of those with PE at 32-35 weeks.

CONCLUSION

Risk stratification of PE by the combined test at 19-24 weeks' gestation can identify, first, a group which constitutes < 1% of the total population and contains > 95% of those that will develop PE < 32 weeks and are in need of intensive monitoring at 24-31 weeks and, second, a group which constitutes < 20% of the total and contains > 90% of those that will develop PE at 32-35 weeks and are in need of reassessment at 32 weeks. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison of screening for pre-eclampsia at 31-34 weeks' gestation by sFlt-1/PlGF ratio and a method combining maternal factors with sFlt-1 and PlGF

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the patient-specific risk of pre-eclampsia (PE) at 31-34 weeks' gestation by a combination of maternal characteristics and medical history with multiples of the median (MoM) values of serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) and to compare the performance of screening to that achieved by the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women attending a third-trimester ultrasound scan at 31-34 weeks as part of routine pregnancy care. We estimated the performance of screening for PE with delivery within 4 weeks of assessment and PE with delivery from 4 weeks after assessment up to 40 weeks' gestation by the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio and by a method utilizing Bayes' theorem that combines maternal factors and MoM values of sFlt-1 and PlGF. The significance of the difference in screening performance between the two methods was assessed by comparison of the areas under the receiver-operating characteristics curves (AUC).

RESULTS

The study population of 8063 singleton pregnancies included 231 (2.9%) that subsequently developed PE. In the prediction of delivery with PE at < 4 weeks from assessment, the performance of the method utilizing Bayes' theorem was similar to that using the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio (AUC, 0.987 (95% CI, 0.979-0.995) vs 0.988 (95% CI, 0.981-0.994); P = 0.961). In contrast, the performance of screening for delivery with PE at ≥ 4 weeks after assessment up to 40 weeks' gestation was better with the method utilizing Bayes' theorem than that with the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio (AUC, 0.884 (95% CI, 0.854-0.914) vs 0.818 (95% CI, 0.775-0.860); P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

At 31-34 weeks' gestation the performance of screening for PE delivering at < 4 weeks from assessment by the method utilizing Bayes' theorem is similar to that using the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio, but the former is superior to the latter in prediction of PE delivering ≥ 4 weeks from assessment. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.