Destabilization of Planktonic Ecosystems and Blooms of Blue-Green Algae. In: Kitchell JF, editor. Food Web Management. New York: Springer; 1992. pp. 461-81. [DOI: 10.1007/978-1-4612-4410-3_23]

Linking population dynamics models with empirically derived models through phytoplankton primary production

There are alternative methods for estimation of phytoplankton primary production (PP) that are fundamentally different in the calculation approach. The process-oriented PP model is a mechanistic, empirically derived method based on the photosynthesis-light relationships. The population dynamics-based PP calculation, which is a synthetic method, provides a production estimate based on population dynamics of phytoplankton. These alternative methods were here compared with regard to production estimates and linked to enhance the performance of the existing models of population dynamics applied to a wide variety of lakes worldwide in terms of morphometry, nutrient status, and light environments. Estimates of PP were shown to be sensitive to changes in phytoplankton sinking and zooplankton grazing rates in both methods. Production estimates in the process-oriented PP model were also sensitive to light-associated parameters such as day length. Although the production estimated from the population dynamics-based PP calculation tended to be lower than that from the process-oriented PP model irrespective of lake morphometry, production estimates calculated from both methods with standard parameterization were comparable when production was estimated on an annual timescale. However, it was also shown that the alternative methods could produce different production estimates when estimated on shorter timescales such as cyanobacterial blooms in summer. Cyanobacteria with low mortality due to grazing and sinking losses have been considered as trophic bottlenecks, but there is increasing evidence that their mortality is, to a considerable extent, due to parasitic pathogens. In the case of cyanobacterial blooms, an addition of parasite-related loss term (19%-33% of standing stock) resulted in a resolution of the difference in production estimates between the methods. These analyses theoretically support the critical role of parasitism and resolve the bottleneck problem in aquatic ecosystem metabolism.

Integrating resilience with functional ecosystem measures: A novel paradigm for management decisions under multiple-stressor interplay in freshwater ecosystems

Moving beyond monitoring the state of water quality to understanding how the sensitive ecosystems "respond" to complex interplay of climatic and anthropogenic perturbations, and eventually the mechanisms that underpin alterations leading to transitional shifts is crucial for managing freshwater resources. The multiple disturbance dynamics-a single disturbance as opposed to multiple disturbances for recovery and other atrocities-alter aquatic ecosystem in multiple ways, yet the global models lack representation of key processes and feedbacks, impeding potential management decisions. Here, the procedure we have embarked for what is known about the biogeochemical and ecological functions in freshwaters in context of ecosystem resilience, feedbacks, stressors synergies, and compensatory dynamics, is highly relevant for process-based ecosystem models and for developing a novel paradigm toward potential management decisions. This review advocates the need for a more aggressive approach with improved understanding of changes in key ecosystem processes and mechanistic links thereof, regulating resilience and compensatory dynamics concordant with climate and anthropogenic perturbations across a wide range of spatio-temporal scales. This has relevance contexting climate change and anthropogenic pressures for developing proactive and adaptive management strategies for safeguarding freshwater resources and services they provide.

Shifting regimes and changing interactions in the Lake Washington, U.S.A., plankton community from 1962-1994

Understanding how changing climate, nutrient regimes, and invasive species shift food web structure is critically important in ecology. Most analytical approaches, however, assume static species interactions and environmental effects across time. Therefore, we applied multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models in a moving window context to test for shifting plankton community interactions and effects of environmental variables on plankton abundance in Lake Washington, U.S.A. from 1962–1994, following reduced nutrient loading in the 1960s and the rise of Daphnia in the 1970s. The moving-window MAR (mwMAR) approach showed shifts in the strengths of interactions between Daphnia, a dominant grazer, and other plankton taxa between a high nutrient, Oscillatoria-dominated regime and a low nutrient, Daphnia-dominated regime. The approach also highlighted the inhibiting influence of the cyanobacterium Oscillatoria on other plankton taxa in the community. Overall community stability was lowest during the period of elevated nutrient loading and Oscillatoria dominance. Despite recent warming of the lake, we found no evidence that anomalous temperatures impacted plankton abundance. Our results suggest mwMAR modeling is a useful approach that can be applied across diverse ecosystems, when questions involve shifting relationships within food webs, and among species and abiotic drivers.