Melanoma susceptibility genes and risk assessment

Cell Senescence and the Genetics of Melanoma Development

Cutaneous malignant melanoma is an aggressive skin cancer with an approximate lifetime risk of 1 in 38 in the UK. While exposure to ultraviolet radiation is a key environmental risk factor for melanoma, up to ~10% of patients report a family history of melanoma, and ~1% have a strong family history. The understanding of causal mutations in melanoma has been critical to the development of novel targeted therapies that have contributed to improved outcomes for late-stage patients. Here, we review current knowledge of the genes affected by familial melanoma mutations and their partial overlap with driver genes commonly mutated in sporadic melanoma development. One theme linking a set of susceptibility loci/genes is the regulation of skin pigmentation and suntanning. The largest functional set of susceptibility variants, typically with high penetrance, includes CDKN2A, RB1, and telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) mutations, associated with attenuation of cell senescence. We discuss the mechanisms of action of these gene sets in the biology and progression of nevi and melanoma.

Mechanisms of Melanoma Progression and Treatment Resistance: Role of Cancer Stem-like Cells

Melanoma is the third most common type of skin cancer, characterized by its heterogeneity and propensity to metastasize to distant organs. Melanoma is a heterogeneous tumor, composed of genetically divergent subpopulations, including a small fraction of melanoma-initiating cancer stem-like cells (CSCs) and many non-cancer stem cells (non-CSCs). CSCs are characterized by their unique surface proteins associated with aberrant signaling pathways with a causal or consequential relationship with tumor progression, drug resistance, and recurrence. Melanomas also harbor significant alterations in functional genes (BRAF, CDKN2A, NRAS, TP53, and NF1). Of these, the most common are the BRAF and NRAS oncogenes, with 50% of melanomas demonstrating the BRAF mutation (BRAFV600E). While the successful targeting of BRAFV600E does improve overall survival, the long-term efficacy of available therapeutic options is limited due to adverse side effects and reduced clinical efficacy. Additionally, drug resistance develops rapidly via mechanisms involving fast feedback re-activation of MAPK signaling pathways. This article updates information relevant to the mechanisms of melanoma progression and resistance and particularly the mechanistic role of CSCs in melanoma progression, drug resistance, and recurrence.

Absence of Differential Cyclin D1 Immunohistochemical Protein Expression in Nevi and Melanoma Evaluated by Digital Image Analysis

BACKGROUND

Distinction of superficial spreading melanoma (SSM) from compound nevi (CN) sometimes poses difficult diagnostic challenges. Herein, we studied cyclin D1 protein expression by immunohistochemistry in SSM and CN and evaluated the results by digital image analysis.

DESIGN

A total of 13 CN and 12 SSM cases were retrospectively reviewed and cyclin D1 immunohistochemistry was performed. Immunohistochemical stained slides were evaluated by digital imaging analysis that included quantification and staining intensity of the cyclin D1 expressing dermal cells.

RESULTS

Cyclin D1 expression was observed in all CN and SSM. CN-positive staining was present in 30% to 93% of the dermal nevocytes, more positive in the upper (mean 85%), than lower half (mean 57%). SSM-positive staining was present in 44% to 96% of the dermal lesion, more positive in the upper (mean 88%) than lower half (mean 49%). When analyzed based on 3+ strong staining intensity, similar regional differences in cyclin D1 expression were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Digital image analysis of Cyclin D1 expression showed no differences between CN and SSM. Quantity and regional distribution of cyclin D1 positivity were found to be similar in both lesions. Our findings argue against the routine use of cyclin D1 immunohistochemistry as a diagnostic tool for differentiating CN from SSM.

Genodermatoses associated with melanocytic nevi

Though melanocytic nevi are ubiquitous in the general population, they can also be key cutaneous manifestations of genetic syndromes. We describe genodermatoses associated with melanocytic nevi and discuss their clinical characteristics, cutaneous manifestations, underlying genetics, and, if applicable, guidelines for when genetic testing should be performed. We categorized these genodermatoses based on their association with congenital nevi, acquired nevi, or nevi whose first appearance is unknown. In many cases, the distinctive morphology or distribution of melanocytic nevi can be an important clue that an underlying genetic syndrome is present, allowing both the patient as well as family members to be screened for the more serious complications of their genetic disorder and receive education on potential preventative measures. As we continue to advance our understanding of how various genotypes give rise to the wide spectrum of phenotypes observed in these genodermatoses, we shall be able to better stratify risk and tailor our screening methods to clinically manage the heterogeneous manifestations of genodermatoses among these patients.

Synchronous Melanoma and Pancreas Malignancies Leading to a Discovery of a CDKN2A Mutation in a Patient with No Known Family History

We report a case of a 60-year-old male with metachronous primary malignancies, pancreatic cancer and malignant melanoma which recurred simultaneously. Both cancers were challenging to diagnose and throughout the case at different times, the presence of two active malignancies obscured the clinical picture. A bleeding gastric lesion found in the stomach 6 months after a distal pancreatectomy for pancreatic adenocarcinoma revealed metastatic melanoma, presumed secondary from a melanoma excised from the patient's back 2 years previously. During surgery intended to resect the gastric lesion, peritoneal nodularity was identified, with histology confirming metastatic pancreas cancer. This case highlights two main points of interest. Firstly it emphasises the role for consideration of a genetic predisposition in young patients with more than one primary malignancy. The man in this case was not informed of his family history as he was adopted. If he had knowledge of previous family history, he may have been able to provide information to expedite arrival at the diagnosis of a CDKN2A mutation (melanoma-pancreatic carcinoma syndrome). In addition, this case also raises the issue of the challenges we face when treating synchronous primary malignancies. The two malignancies here behaved equally aggressively and posed obstacles for treatment as there is no mutual method of carcinogenesis that could be targeted with treatment; therefore, treatment modalities had to be chosen to treat each malignancy separately. To date, studies evaluating the role for targeted therapy in the setting of CDKN2A mutations have not conclusively provided meaningful benefits to patients.

An update on the implications of cyclin D1 in melanomas

Cyclin D1 is a protein encoded by the CCND1 gene, located on 11q13 chromosome, which is a key component of the physiological regulation of the cell cycle. CCND1/cyclin D1 is upregulated in several types of human tumors including melanoma and is currently classified as an oncogene that promotes uncontrolled cell proliferation. Despite the demonstrated importance of CCND1/cyclin D1 as a central oncogene in several types of human tumors, its knowledge in melanoma is still limited. This review examines data published on upregulation of the CCND1 gene and cyclin D1 protein in the melanoma setting, focusing on the pathways and molecular mechanisms involved in the activation of the gene and on the clinical and therapeutic implications.

Common and not so Common Melanocytic Lesions in Children and Adolescents

The acquired melanocytic nevus is the most common lesion encountered by pediatric pathologists and dermatopathologists in their daily practice. In most cases, there are few difficulties in histopathologic diagnosis. However, it is the acquired melanocytic lesion known as the Spitz nevus, with its intrinsic atypical features which becomes the challenge since it exists along a histopathologic and biologic continuum from the atypical Spitz tumor to spitzoid melanoma. The frustration with some of these spitzoid lesions is that even the "experts" cannot agree as to the differentiation of one from the other even at the level of molecular genetics. Other melanocytic lesions are discussed including the congenital melanocytic nevus with its proliferative nodule(s) and melanoma as the ultimate complication. Although uncommon, cutaneous melanoma in the first 2 decades is emerging as a clinical problem especially in young women in the second decade of life. These are ultraviolet-associated neoplasms whose histopathologic and prognostic features are identical to the adult experience. Considerable progress has been made over the past 15 to 20 years in our understanding of cutaneous melanocytic lesions, but gaps still exist in the important group of spitzoid lesions. It can also be anticipated that more cutaneous melanomas in children will be seen in the future based upon epidemiologic studies.

Inhibition of melanocortin 1 receptor slows melanoma growth, reduces tumor heterogeneity and increases survival

Melanoma risk is increased in patients with mutations of melanocortin 1 receptor (MC1R) yet the basis for the increased risk remains unknown. Here we report in vivo evidence supporting a critical role for MC1R in regulating melanoma tumor growth and determining overall survival time. Inhibition of MC1R by its physiologically relevant competitive inhibitor, agouti signaling protein (ASIP), reduced melanin synthesis and morphological heterogeneity in murine B16-F10 melanoma cells. In the lungs of syngeneic C57BL/6 mice, mCherry-marked, ASIP-secreting lung tumors inhibited MC1R on neighboring tumors lacking ASIP in a dose dependent manner as evidenced by a proportional loss of pigment in tumors from mice injected with 1:1, 3:1 and 4:1 mixtures of parental B16-F10 to ASIP-expressing tumor cells. ASIP-expressing B16-F10 cells formed poorly pigmented tumors in vivo that correlated with a 20% longer median survival than those bearing parental B16-F10 tumors (p=0.0005). Mice injected with 1:1 mixtures also showed survival benefit (p=0.0054), whereas injection of a 4:1 mixture showed no significant difference in survival. The longer survival time of mice bearing ASIP-expressing tumors correlated with a significantly slower growth rate than parental B16-F10 tumors as judged by quantification of numbers of tumors and total tumor load (p=0.0325), as well as a more homogeneous size and morphology of ASIP-expressing lung tumors. We conclude that MC1R plays an important role in regulating melanoma growth and morphology. Persistent inhibition of MC1R provided a significant survival advantage resulting in part from slower tumor growth, establishing MC1R as a compelling new molecular target for metastatic melanoma.

Next-Generation Sequencing Reveals Pathway Activations and New Routes to Targeted Therapies in Cutaneous Metastatic Melanoma

BACKGROUND

Comprehensive genomic profiling of clinical samples by next-generation sequencing (NGS) can identify one or more therapy targets for the treatment of metastatic melanoma (MM) with a single diagnostic test.

METHODS

NGS was performed on hybridization-captured, adaptor ligation-based libraries using DNA extracted from 4 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded sections cut at 10 microns from 30 MM cases. The exons of 182 cancer-related genes were fully sequenced using the Illumina HiSeq 2000 at an average sequencing depth of 1098X and evaluated for genomic alterations (GAs) including point mutations, insertions, deletions, copy number alterations, and select gene fusions/rearrangements. Clinically relevant GAs (CRGAs) were defined as those identifying commercially available targeted therapeutics or therapies in registered clinical trials.

RESULTS

The 30 American Joint Committee on Cancer Stage IV MM included 17 (57%) male and 13 (43%) female patients with a mean age of 59.5 years (range 41-83 years). All MM samples had at least 1 GA, and an average of 2.7 GA/sample (range 1-7) was identified. The mean number of GA did not differ based on age or sex; however, on average, significantly more GAs were identified in amelanotic and poorly differentiated MM. GAs were most commonly identified in BRAF (12 cases, 40%), CDKN2A (6 cases, 20%), NF1 (8 cases, 26.7%), and NRAS (6 cases, 20%). CRGAs were identified in all patients, and represented 77% of the GA (64/83) detected. The median and mean CRGAs per tumor were 2 and 2.1, respectively (range 1-7).

CONCLUSION

Comprehensive genomic profiling of MM, using a single diagnostic test, uncovers an unexpectedly high number of CRGA that would not be identified by standard of care testing. Moreover, NGS has the potential to influence therapy selection and can direct patients to enter relevant clinical trials evaluating promising targeted therapies.

Copy number variation in archival melanoma biopsies versus benign melanocytic lesions

BACKGROUND

Skin melanocytes can give rise to benign and malignant neoplasms. Discrimination of an early melanoma from an unusual/atypical benign nevus can represent a significant challenge. However, previous studies have shown that in contrast to benign nevi, melanoma demonstrates pervasive chromosomal aberrations.

OBJECTIVE

This substantial difference between melanoma and benign nevi can be exploited to discriminate between melanoma and benign nevi.

METHODS

Array-comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) is an approach that can be used on DNA extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues to assess the entire genome for the presence of changes in DNA copy number. In this study, high resolution, genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays were utilized to perform comprehensive and detailed analyses of recurrent copy number aberrations in 41 melanoma samples in comparison with 21 benign nevi.

RESULTS

We found statistically significant copy number gains and losses within melanoma samples. Some of the identified aberrations are previously implicated in melanoma. Moreover, novel regions of copy number alterations were identified, revealing new candidate genes potentially involved in melanoma pathogenesis.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, these findings can help improve melanoma diagnosis and introduce novel melanoma therapeutic targets.

Hereditary melanoma: Update on syndromes and management: Genetics of familial atypical multiple mole melanoma syndrome

Malignant melanoma is considered the most lethal skin cancer if it is not detected and treated during its early stages. About 10% of melanoma patients report a family history of melanoma; however, individuals with features of true hereditary melanoma (ie, unilateral lineage, multigenerational, multiple primary lesions, and early onset of disease) are in fact quite rare. Although many new loci have been implicated in hereditary melanoma, CDKN2A mutations remain the most common. Familial melanoma in the presence of multiple atypical nevi should raise suspicion for a germline CDKN2A mutation. These patients have a high risk of developing multiple primary melanomas and internal organ malignancies, especially pancreatic cancer; therefore, a multidisciplinary approach is necessary in many cases. The value of dermoscopic examination and total body photography performed at regular intervals has been suggested by a number of studies, and should therefore be considered for these patients and their first-degree relatives. In addition, genetic counseling with the possibility of testing can be a valuable adjunct for familial melanoma patients. This must be performed with care, however, and only by qualified individuals trained in cancer risk analysis.

Familial skin cancer syndromes: Increased melanoma risk

Phenotypic traits, such as red hair and freckling, increase melanoma risk by 2- to 3-fold. In addition, approximately 10% of melanomas are caused by inherited germline mutations that increase melanoma risk from 4- to >1000-fold. This review highlights the key genes responsible for inherited melanoma, with an emphasis on when a patient should undergo genetic testing. Many genetic syndromes associated with increased melanoma risk are also associated with an increased risk of other cancers. Identification of these high-risk patients is essential for preventive behavior reinforcement, genetic counseling, and ensuring other required cancer screenings.

Multiple primary melanomas (MPMs) and criteria for genetic assessment: MultiMEL, a multicenter study of the Italian Melanoma Intergroup

BACKGROUND

Multiple primary melanoma (MPM), in concert with a positive family history, is a predictor of cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) inhibitor 2A (CDKN2A) germline mutations. A rule regarding the presence of either 2 or 3 or more cancer events (melanoma and pancreatic cancer) in low or high melanoma incidence populations, respectively, has been established to select patients for genetic referral.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to determine the CDKN2A/CDK4/microphthalmia-associated transcription factor mutation rate among Italian patients with MPM to appropriately direct genetic counseling regardless of family history.

METHODS

In all, 587 patients with MPM and an equal number with single primary melanomas and control subjects were consecutively enrolled at the participating centers and tested for CDKN2A, CDK4, and microphthalmia-associated transcription factor.

RESULTS

CDKN2A germline mutations were found in 19% of patients with MPM versus 4.4% of patients with single primary melanoma. In familial MPM cases the mutation rate varied from 36.6% to 58.8%, whereas in sporadic MPM cases it varied from 8.2% to 17.6% in patients with 2 and 3 or more melanomas, respectively. The microphthalmia-associated transcription factor E318K mutation accounted for 3% of MPM cases altogether.

LIMITATIONS

The study was hospital based, not population based. Rare novel susceptibility genes were not tested.

CONCLUSION

Italian patients who developed 2 melanomas, even in situ, should be referred for genetic counseling even in the absence of family history.

What Is New in Melanoma Genetics and Treatment?

New therapies for advanced melanoma have led to major advances, which, for the first time, showed improved survival for patients with this very challenging neoplasm. These new treatments are based on gene-targeted therapies or stimulation of immune responses. However, these treatments are not without challenges in terms of resistance and toxicity. Physicians should be aware of these side effects as prompt treatment may save lives. Melanoma genetics is also unravelling new genetic risk factors involving telomere genes as well as new gene pathways at the somatic level which may soon become therapeutic targets. It is also shedding new light onto the pathology of this tumour with links to neural diseases and longevity.

Role of rare germline copy number variation in melanoma-prone patients

AIM

This work evaluates a possible causative role for germline copy number variants (CNVs) in melanoma predisposition.

PATIENTS & METHODS

A total of 41 melanoma-prone Brazilian patients were investigated for CNVs using 850K single nucleotide polymorphism arrays.

RESULTS

Ten rare CNVs were identified in nine patients, comprising 54 known genes, mostly related to cancer. In silico analyses revealed gene enrichment for cellular development and growth, and proliferation, highlighting five genes directly associated with the melanoma phenotype (ANGPT1, IDH1, PDE5A, HIST1H1B and GCNT2).

CONCLUSION

Patients harboring rare CNVs exhibited a decreased age of disease onset, in addition to an overall higher skin cancer predisposition. Our findings suggest that rare CNVs contribute to melanoma susceptibility, and should be taken into account when investigating cancer risk factors.

Multiple Cutaneous Melanomas and Clinically Atypical Moles in a Patient With a Novel Germline BAP1 Mutation

IMPORTANCE

Several kindreds having germline BAP1 mutations with a propensity for uveal and cutaneous melanomas and other internal malignancies have been described in an autosomal dominant tumor predisposition syndrome. However, clinically atypical moles have not been previously recognized as a component of this syndrome, to our knowledge. We describe the first kindred to date with a germline mutation in BAP1 associated with multiple cutaneous melanomas and classic dysplastic nevus syndrome.

OBSERVATIONS

We describe a 53-year-old man who was initially seen in 2003 with dysplastic nevus syndrome, multiple atypical melanocytic proliferations showing loss of immunostaining for BAP1, and 7 cutaneous melanomas. Germline testing was performed in the proband, his 16-year-old son, and his 13-year-old daughter, revealing a germline mutation in the BAP1 gene (c.592G>T, p.Glu198X) in the proband and in his 16-year-old son. CDKN2A and CDK4 genes were wild type. No members of this kindred reported a history of uveal melanoma.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

To our knowledge, this is the first report of a patient with multiple melanomas, dysplastic nevus syndrome, and an inactivating germline BAP1 mutation. The coexistence of dysplastic nevus syndrome and a BAP1 germline mutation extends the spectrum of the BAP1 tumor predisposition syndrome and may confer a greater risk for cutaneous melanomas.

Characterization of individuals at high risk of developing melanoma in Latin America: bases for genetic counseling in melanoma

Purpose:

CDKN2A is the main high-risk melanoma-susceptibility gene, but it has been poorly assessed in Latin America. We sought to analyze CDKN2A and MC1R in patients from Latin America with familial and sporadic multiple primary melanoma (SMP) and compare the data with those for patients from Spain to establish bases for melanoma genetic counseling in Latin America.

Genet Med18 7, 727–736.

Methods:

CDKN2A and MC1R were sequenced in 186 Latin American patients from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Uruguay, and in 904 Spanish patients. Clinical and phenotypic data were obtained.

Genet Med18 7, 727–736.

Results:

Overall, 24 and 14% of melanoma-prone families in Latin America and Spain, respectively, had mutations in CDKN2A. Latin American families had CDKN2A mutations more frequently (P = 0.014) than Spanish ones. Of patients with SMP, 10% of those from Latin America and 8.5% of those from Spain had mutations in CDKN2A (P = 0.623). The most recurrent CDKN2A mutations were c.-34G>T and p.G101W. Latin American patients had fairer hair (P = 0.016) and skin (P < 0.001) and a higher prevalence of MC1R variants (P = 0.003) compared with Spanish patients.

Genet Med18 7, 727–736.

Conclusion:

The inclusion criteria for genetic counseling of melanoma in Latin America may be the same criteria used in Spain, as suggested in areas with low to medium incidence, SMP with at least two melanomas, or families with at least two cases among first- or second-degree relatives.

Genet Med18 7, 727–736.

IGF-1R inhibition induces schedule-dependent sensitization of human melanoma to temozolomide

Prior studies implicate type 1 IGF receptor (IGF-1R) in mediating chemo-resistance. Here, we investigated whether IGF-1R influences response to temozolomide (TMZ), which generates DNA adducts that are removed by O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT), or persist causing replication-associated double-strand breaks (DSBs). Initial assessment in 10 melanoma cell lines revealed that TMZ resistance correlated with MGMT expression (r = 0.79, p = 0.009), and in MGMT-proficient cell lines, with phospho-IGF-1R (r = 0.81, p = 0.038), suggesting that TMZ resistance associates with IGF-1R activation. Next, effects of IGF-1R inhibitors (IGF-1Ri) AZ3801 and linsitinib (OSI-906) were tested on TMZ-sensitivity, cell cycle progression and DSB induction. IGF-1Ri sensitized BRAF wild-type and mutant melanoma cells to TMZ in vitro, an effect that was independent of MGMT. Cells harboring wild-type p53 were more sensitive to IGF-1Ri, and showed schedule-dependent chemo-sensitization that was most effective when IGF-1Ri followed TMZ. This sequence sensitized to clinically-achievable TMZ concentrations and enhanced TMZ-induced apoptosis. Simultaneous or prior IGF-1Ri caused less effective chemo-sensitization, associated with increased G1 population and reduced accumulation of TMZ-induced DSBs. Clinically relevant sequential (TMZ → IGF-1Ri) treatment was tested in mice bearing A375M (V600E BRAF, wild-type p53) melanoma xenografts, achieving peak plasma/tumor IGF-1Ri levels comparable to clinical Cmax, and inducing extensive intratumoral apoptosis. TMZ or IGF-1Ri caused minor inhibition of tumor growth (gradient reduction 13%, 25% respectively), while combination treatment caused supra-additive growth delay (72%) that was significantly different from control (p < 0.01), TMZ (p < 0.01) and IGF-1Ri (p < 0.05) groups. These data highlight the importance of scheduling when combining IGF-1Ri and other targeted agents with drugs that induce replication-associated DNA damage.

DNA Methylation Levels of Melanoma Risk Genes Are Associated with Clinical Characteristics of Melanoma Patients

In melanoma development, oncogenic process is mediated by genetic and epigenetic mutations, and few studies have so far explored the role of DNA methylation either as predisposition factor or biomarker. We tested patient samples for germline CDKN2A methylation status and found no evidence of inactivation by promoter hypermethylation. We have also investigated the association of clinical characteristics of samples with the DNA methylation pattern of twelve genes relevant for melanomagenesis. Five genes (BAP1, MGMT, MITF, PALB2, and POT1) presented statistical association between blood DNA methylation levels and either CDKN2A-mutation status, number of lesions, or Breslow thickness. In tumors, five genes (KIT, MGMT, MITF, TERT, and TNF) exhibited methylation levels significantly different between tumor groups including acral compared to nonacral melanomas and matched primary lesions and metastases. Our data pinpoint that the methylation level of eight melanoma-associated genes could potentially represent markers for this disease both in peripheral blood and in tumor samples.

Familial risk of melanoma and links with other cancers

The genetic risk factors for melanoma are complex and involve both familial and environmental components. Of the thousands of melanomas diagnosed each year, only a fraction are due to familial causes. These melanomas typically present in younger individuals, and may be associated with genetic factors that put these individuals at risk for other tumors. CDKN2A and CDK4 are the most well-characterized mutations, as they have been identified in up to 40% of familial melanomas. Individuals with CDKN2A are also at risk for pancreatic cancer. The BRCA2 mutation has also been implicated in familial melanomas, breast and ovarian cancer. The BAP1, TERC and POT1 mutations are associated with melanomas and several other familial tumors.

Dinaciclib for the treatment of breast cancer

INTRODUCTION

Cyclin-dependent kinases (CDK) represent attractive targets in oncology due to their key role in controlling gene transcription and cell cycle progression. Dinaciclib (MK-7965, formerly SCH727965) is a relatively novel CDK 1/2/5/9 inhibitor that has shown promising results in preclinical studies and an acceptable safety profile in Phase I clinical trials. It is currently under clinical evaluation for the treatment of hematological and solid malignancies, including breast cancer.

AREAS COVERED

This review summarizes the current understanding of CDK's role in physiology and cancer, and the therapeutic value of blocking their pathways in breast cancer. Particularly, the article reviews the preclinical and clinical data for dinaciclib in its use for the treatment of breast cancer.

EXPERT OPINION

A better understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying cell cycle dysregulation in cancer is needed in order to develop novel CDK inhibitors. Additionally, further efforts are needed to identify potential biomarkers of dinaciclib efficacy, which could allow a better selection of patients enrolled in clinical trials. Moreover, combination therapies with dinaciclib or other CDK and chemotherapy, endocrine therapy or targeted therapies might be further evaluated in breast cancer patients.

Risk prediction models for melanoma: a systematic review

Melanoma incidence is increasing rapidly worldwide among white-skinned populations. Earlier diagnosis is the principal factor that can improve prognosis. Defining high-risk populations using risk prediction models may help targeted screening and early detection approaches. In this systematic review, we searched Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library for primary research studies reporting or validating models to predict risk of developing cutaneous melanoma. A total of 4,141 articles were identified from the literature search and six through citation searching. Twenty-five risk models were included. Between them, the models considered 144 possible risk factors, including 18 measures of number of nevi and 26 of sun/UV exposure. Those most frequently included in final risk models were number of nevi, presence of freckles, history of sunburn, hair color, and skin color. Despite the different factors included and different cutoff values for sensitivity and specificity, almost all models yielded sensitivities and specificities that fit along a summary ROC with area under the ROC (AUROC) of 0.755, suggesting that most models had similar discrimination. Only two models have been validated in separate populations and both also showed good discrimination with AUROC values of 0.79 (0.70-0.86) and 0.70 (0.64-0.77). Further research should focus on validating existing models rather than developing new ones.