Cost-effectiveness analysis of salt reduction policies to reduce coronary heart disease in Syria, 2010-2020

Policy models for preventative interventions in cardiometabolic diseases: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs), including cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM), are major contributors to morbidity, mortality, and rising healthcare costs. Effective disease prevention programs rely on robust mathematical models to generate long-term evidence regarding the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and policy implications of interventions in the population. Population-level interventions, such as dietary policies, are recognised as essential prevention strategies, yet there is limited syntheis of policy models assessing their impact. This study systematically reviews existing CMD policy models to provide: (i) a comprehensive overview of current models, and (ii) a critical appraisal of their application, particularly in the context of primordial prevention programmes.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted across MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), CINAHL, Google Scholar, and Open Grey. The search focused on publications from 1st January 2000, to 31st May 2024, using Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) for "cardiovascular," "diabetes," "decision model," and "policy model." Full-text articles were independently appraised independently by three reviewers using the Phillips et al. checklist, and the review process adhered to PRISMA guidelines.

RESULTS

Thirty-two articles met the inclusion criteria and were critically appraised. Policy models were assessed across three domains: structure, data, and consistency. Most models (79%) demonstrated well-defined structures, aligning inputs and objectives with the stated perspective and initial justifications. However, fewer than 60% of studies clearly reported the quality of their data sources and provided clear information in terms of consistency. The reviewed studies employed diverse methodologies, including parameter incorporation, simulation modelling, and outcome analysis.

CONCLUSION

The review highlights substantial heterogeneity in the quality, structure, and data use of policy models evaluating dietary interventions for CMD prevention. To advance CMD policy modeling, this study provides recommendations for improving conceptualisation, methodological rigor, and applicability to prevention programmes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Registered protocol at PROSPERO: CRD42022354399.

Public health economic modelling in evaluations of salt and/or alcohol policies: a systematic scoping review

BACKGROUND

Public health economic modelling is an approach capable of managing the intricacies involved in evaluating interventions without direct observational evidence. It is used to estimate potential long-term health benefits and cost outcomes. The aim of this review was to determine the scope of health economic models in the evaluation of salt and/or alcohol interventions globally, to provide an overview of the literature and the modelling methods and structures used.

METHODS

Searches were conducted in Medline, Embase, and EconLit, and complemented with citation searching of key reviews. The searches were conducted between 13/11/2022 and 8/11/2023, with no limits to publication date. We applied a health economic search filter to select model-based economic evaluations of public health policies and interventions related to alcohol consumption, dietary salt intake, or both. Data on the study characteristics, modelling approaches, and the interventions were extracted and synthesised.

RESULTS

The search identified 1,958 articles, 82 of which were included. These included comparative risk assessments (29%), multistate lifetables (27%), Markov cohort (22%), microsimulation (13%), and other (9%) modelling methods. The included studies evaluated alcohol and/or salt interventions in a combined total of 64 countries. Policies from the UK (23%) and Australia (18%) were the most frequently evaluated. A total of 58% of the models evaluated salt policies, 38% evaluated alcohol policies, and only three (4% of included modelling studies) evaluated both alcohol- and salt-related policies. The range of diseases modelled covered diabetes and cardiovascular disease-related outcomes, cancers, and alcohol-attributable harm. Systolic blood pressure was a key intermediate risk factor in the excessive salt-to-disease modelling pathway for 40 (83%) of the salt modelling studies. The effects of alcohol consumption on adverse health effects were modelled directly using estimates of the relative risk of alcohol-attributable diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

This scoping review highlights the substantial utilisation of health economic modelling for estimating the health and economic impact of interventions targeting salt or alcohol consumption. The limited use of combined alcohol and salt policy models presents a pressing need for models that could explore their integrated risk factor pathways for cost-effectiveness comparisons between salt and alcohol policies to inform primary prevention policymaking.

The perspective of hypertension and salt intake in Chinese population

Salt intake is too high nowadays. It has been widely recognized that there is a close relationship between hypertension (HTN) and dietary salt intake. Investigations reveal that long-term high salt intake, mainly sodium intake, induces a relevant increase in blood pressure in hypertensive and normotensive individuals. According to most scientific evidence, a diet with high salt intake in public increases cardiovascular risk, salted-related HTN, and other HTN-associated outcomes. Given the clinical importance, this review aims to present the prevalence of HTN and trends in salt intake in the Chinese population and will comprehensively discuss the risk factors, causes, and mechanisms of the association between salt intake and HTN. The review also highlights the education of Chinese people regarding salt intake and the cost-effectiveness of salt reduction from a global perspective. Finally, the review will emphasize the need to customize the unique Chinese practices to reduce salt intake and how awareness changes people's eating lifestyle and helps adopt diet salt reduction strategies.

Does health economics research align with the disease burden in the Middle East and North Africa region? A systematic review of economic evaluation studies on public health interventions

INTRODUCTION

Economic evaluation studies demonstrate the value of money in health interventions and enhance the efficiency of the healthcare system. Therefore, this study reviews published economic evaluation studies of public health interventions from 26 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries and examines whether they addressed the region's major health problems.

METHODS

PubMed and Scopus were utilized to search for relevant articles published up to June 26, 2021. The reviewers independently selected studies, extracted data, and assessed the quality of studies using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist.

RESULTS

The search identified 61 studies. Approximately half (28 studies; 46%) were conducted in Israel and Iran. The main areas of interest for economic evaluation studies were infectious diseases (21 studies; 34%), cancers (13 studies; 21%), and genetic disorders (nine studies; 15%). Five (8%), 39 (64%), 16 (26%), and one (2%) studies were classified as excellent, high, average, and poor quality, respectively. The mean of CHEERS checklist items reported was 80.8% (SD 14%). Reporting the structure and justification of the selected model was missed in 21 studies (37%), while price and conversion rates and the analytical methods were missed in 21 studies (34%).

CONCLUSIONS

The quantity of economic evaluation studies on public health interventions in the MENA region remains low; however, the overall quality is high to excellent. There were obvious geographic gaps across countries regarding the number and quality of studies and gaps within countries concerning disease prioritization. The observed research output, however, did not reflect current and upcoming disease burden and risk factors trends in the MENA region.

Simulation Modeling for the Economic Evaluation of Population-Based Dietary Policies: A Systematic Scoping Review

Simulation modeling can be useful to estimate the long-term health and economic impacts of population-based dietary policies. We conducted a systematic scoping review following the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) guideline to map and critically appraise economic evaluations of population-based dietary policies using simulation models. We searched Medline, Embase, and EconLit for studies published in English after 2005. Modeling studies were mapped based on model type, dietary policy, and nutritional target, and modeled risk factor-outcome pathways were analyzed. We included 56 studies comprising 136 model applications evaluating dietary policies in 21 countries. The policies most often assessed were reformulation (34/136), taxation (27/136), and labeling (20/136); the most common targets were salt/sodium (60/136), sugar-sweetened beverages (31/136), and fruit and vegetables (15/136). Model types included Markov-type (35/56), microsimulation (11/56), and comparative risk assessment (7/56) models. Overall, the key diet-related risk factors and health outcomes were modeled, but only 1 study included overall diet quality as a risk factor. Information about validation was only reported in 19 of 56 studies and few studies (14/56) analyzed the equity impacts of policies. Commonly included cost components were health sector (52/56) and public sector implementation costs (35/56), as opposed to private sector (18/56), lost productivity (11/56), and informal care costs (3/56). Most dietary policies (103/136) were evaluated as cost-saving independent of the applied costing perspective. An analysis of the main limitations reported by authors revealed that model validity, uncertainty of dietary effect estimates, and long-term intervention assumptions necessitate a careful interpretation of results. In conclusion, simulation modeling is widely applied in the economic evaluation of population-based dietary policies but rarely takes dietary complexity and the equity dimensions of policies into account. To increase relevance for policymakers and support diet-related disease prevention, economic effects beyond the health sector should be considered, and transparent conduct and reporting of model validation should be improved.

Salt Reduction Initiatives in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and Evaluation of Progress towards the 2025 Global Target: A Systematic Review

This study aims at identifying national salt reduction initiatives in countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region and describing their progress towards the global salt reduction target. A systematic review of published and grey literature was conducted. Key characteristics of strategies were extracted and classified according to a pre-defined framework: salt intake assessments; leadership and strategic approach; implementation strategies; monitoring and evaluation of program impact. Salt intake levels were estimated in 15 out of the 22 countries (68%), while national salt reduction initiatives were identified in 13 (59%). The majority of countries were found to implement multifaceted reduction interventions, characterized by a combination of two or more implementation strategies. The least common implementation strategy was taxation, while the most common was reformulation (100%), followed by consumer education (77%), initiatives in specific settings (54%), and front of pack labelling (46%). Monitoring activities were conducted by few countries (27%), while impact evaluations were lacking. Despite the ongoing salt reduction efforts in several countries of the region, more action is needed to initiate reduction programs in countries that are lagging behind, and to ensure rigorous implementation and evaluations of ongoing programs. Such efforts are vital for the achievement of the targeted 30% reduction in salt intake.

Monitoring and implementation of salt reduction initiatives in Africa: A systematic review

This systematic review aims to document salt consumption patterns and the implementation status and potential impact of salt reduction initiatives in Africa, from studies published between January 2009 and November 2019. Studies were sourced using MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library electronic databases, and gray literature. Of the 887 records retrieved, 38 studies conducted in 18 African countries were included. Twelve studies measured population salt intake, 11 examined salt level in foods, 11 assessed consumer knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors, 1 study evaluated a behavior change intervention, and 3 studies modeled potential health gains and cost savings of salt reduction interventions. The population salt intake studies determined by 24‐hour urine collections showed that the mean (SD) salt intake in African adults ranged from 6.8 (2.2) g to 11.3 (5.4) g/d. Salt levels in foods were generally high, and consumer knowledge was fairly high but did not seem to translate into salt lowering behaviors. Modeling studies showed that interventions for reducing dietary sodium would generate large health gains and cost savings for the health system. Despite this evidence, adoption of population salt reduction strategies in Africa has been slow, and dietary consumption of sodium remains high. Only South Africa adopted legislation in 2016 to reduce population salt intake, but success of this intervention has not yet been fully evaluated. Thus, rigorous evaluation of the salt reduction legislation in South Africa and initiation of salt reduction programs in other African countries will be vital to achieving the targeted 30% reduction in salt intake by 2025.

Operational research to support equitable non-communicable disease policy in low-income and middle-income countries in the sustainable development era: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent a growing health burden in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Operational research (OR) has been used globally to support the design of effective and efficient public policies. Equity is emphasised in the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) framework introduced in 2015 and can be analysed within OR studies.

METHODS

We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus and Web of Science for studies published between 2015 and 2018 at the intersection of five domains (OR, LMICs, NCDs, health and decision-making and/or policy-making). We categorised the type of policy intervention and described any concern for equity, which we defined as either analysis of differential impact by subgroups or, policy focus on disadvantaged groups or promoting universal health coverage (UHC).

RESULTS

A total of 149 papers met the inclusion criteria. The papers covered a number of policy types and a broad range of NCDs, although not in proportion to their relative disease burden. A concern for equity was demonstrated by 88 of the 149 papers (59%), with 8 (5%) demonstrating differential impact, 47 (32%) targeting disadvantaged groups, and 68 (46%) promoting UHC.

CONCLUSION

Overall, OR for NCD health policy in the SDG era is being applied to a diverse set of interventions and conditions across LMICs and researchers appear to be concerned with equity. However, the current focus of published research does not fully reflect population needs and the analysis of differential impact within populations is rare.

Effects of Menu Labeling Policies on Transnational Restaurant Chains to Promote a Healthy Diet: A Scoping Review to Inform Policy and Research

There is insufficient evidence that restaurant menu labeling policies are cost-effective strategies to reduce obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Evidence suggests that menu labeling has a modest effect on calories purchased and consumed. No review has been published on the effect of menu labeling policies on transnational restaurant chains globally. This study conducted a two-step scoping review to map and describe the effect of restaurant menu labeling policies on menu reformulation. First, we identified national, state, and municipal menu labeling policies in countries from global databases. Second, we searched four databases (i.e., PubMed, CINHAL/EBSCO, Web of Science, and Google Scholar) for peer-reviewed studies and gray-literature sources in English and Spanish (2000-2020). Step 1 identified three voluntary and eight mandatory menu labeling policies primarily for energy disclosures for 11 upper-middle and high-income countries, but none for low- or middle-income countries. Step 2 identified 15 of 577 studies that met the inclusion criteria. The analysis showed reductions in energy for newly introduced menu items only in the United States. We suggesr actions for governments, civil society organizations, and the restaurant businesses to develop, implement, and evaluate comprehensive menu labeling policies to determine whether these may reduce obesity and NCD risks worldwide.

The impact of food reformulation on nutrient intakes and health, a systematic review of modelling studies

BACKGROUND

Unhealthy diet is a risk factor for adverse health outcomes. Reformulation of processed foods has the potential to improve population diet, but evidence of its impact is limited. The purpose of this review was to explore the impact of reformulation on nutrient intakes, health outcomes and quality of life; and to evaluate the quality of modelling studies on reformulation interventions.

METHODS

A systematic review of peer-reviewed articles published between January 2000 and December 2017 was performed using MEDLINE, ScienceDirect, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane, and the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination of the University of York. Additional studies were identified through informal searches on Google and specialized websites. Only simulation studies modelling the impact of food reformulation on nutrient intakes and health outcomes were included. Included articles were independently extracted by 2 reviewers using a standardized, pre-piloted data form, including a self-developed tool to assess study quality.

RESULTS

A total of 33 studies met the selected inclusion criteria, with 20, 5 and 3 studies addressing sodium, sugar and fats reformulation respectively, and 5 studies addressing multiple nutrients. Evidence on the positive effects of reformulation on consumption and health was stronger for sodium interventions, less conclusive for sugar and fats. Study features were highly heterogeneous including differences in methods, the type of policy implemented, the extent of the reformulation, and the spectrum of targeted foods and nutrients. Nonetheless, partial between-study comparisons show a consistent relationship between percentages reformulated and reductions in individual consumption. Positive results are also shown for health outcomes and quality of life measures, although comparisons across studies are limited by the heterogeneity in model features and reporting. Study quality was often compromised by short time-horizons, disregard of uncertainty and time dependencies, and lack of model validation.

CONCLUSIONS

Reformulation models highlight relevant improvements in diets and population health. While models are valuable tools to evaluate reformulation interventions, comparisons are limited by non-homogeneous designs and assumptions. The use of validated models and extensive scenario analyses would improve models' credibility, providing useful insights for policy-makers.

REVIEW REGISTRATION

A research protocol was registered within the PROSPERO database (ID number CRD42017057341).

Protocol for the Process Evaluation of a Complex, Statewide Intervention to Reduce Salt Intake in Victoria, Australia

Systematic reviews of trials consistently demonstrate that reducing salt intake lowers blood pressure. However, there is limited evidence on how interventions function in the real world to achieve sustained population-wide salt reduction. Process evaluations are crucial for understanding how and why an intervention resulted in its observed effect in that setting, particularly for complex interventions. This project presents the detailed protocol for a process evaluation of a statewide strategy to lower salt intake in Victoria, Australia. We describe the pragmatic methods used to collect and analyse data on six process evaluation dimensions: reach, dose or adoption, fidelity, effectiveness, context and cost, informed by Linnan and Steckler's framework and RE-AIM. Data collection methods include routinely collected administrative data; surveys of processed foods, the population, food industry and organizations; targeted campaign evaluation and semi-structured interviews. Quantitative and qualitative data will be triangulated to provide validation or context for one another. This process evaluation will contribute new knowledge about what components of the intervention are important to salt reduction strategies and how the interventions cause reduced salt intake, to inform the transferability of the program to other Australian states and territories. This protocol can be adapted for other population-based, complex, disease prevention interventions.

Primary and secondary prevention interventions for cardiovascular disease in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review of economic evaluations

Background

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of deaths globally, with greatest premature mortality in the low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Many of these countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, have significant budget constraints. The need for current evidence on which interventions offer good value for money to stem this CVD epidemic motivates this study.

Methods

In this systematic review, we included studies reporting full economic evaluations of individual and population-based interventions (pharmacologic and non-pharmacologic), for primary and secondary prevention of CVD among adults in LMIC. Several medical (PubMed, EMBASE, SCOPUS, Web of Science) and economic (EconLit, NHS EED) databases and grey literature were searched. Screening of studies and data extraction was done independently by two reviewers. Drummond’s checklist and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence quality rating scale were used in the quality appraisal for all studies used to inform this evidence synthesis.

Results

From a pool of 4059 records, 94 full texts were read and 50 studies, which met our inclusion criteria, were retained for our narrative synthesis. Most of the studies were from middle-income countries and predominantly of high quality. The majority were modelled evaluations, and there was significant heterogeneity in methods. Primary prevention studies dominated secondary prevention. Most of the economic evaluations were performed for pharmacological interventions focusing on blood pressure, cholesterol lowering and antiplatelet aggregants. The greatest majority were cost-effective. Compared to individual-based interventions, population-based interventions were few and mostly targeted reduction in sodium intake and tobacco control strategies. These were very cost-effective with many being cost-saving.

Conclusions

This evidence synthesis provides a contemporary update on interventions that offer good value for money in LMICs. Population-based interventions especially those targeting reduction in salt intake and tobacco control are very cost-effective in LMICs with potential to generate economic gains that can be reinvested to improve health and/or other sectors. While this evidence is relevant for policy across these regions, decision makers should additionally take into account other multi-sectoral perspectives, including considerations in budget impact, fairness, affordability and implementation while setting priorities for resource allocation.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12962-018-0108-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Systematic review of dietary salt reduction policies: Evidence for an effectiveness hierarchy?

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention strategies now prioritise four major risk factors: food, tobacco, alcohol and physical activity. Dietary salt intake remains much higher than recommended, increasing blood pressure, cardiovascular disease and stomach cancer. Substantial reductions in salt intake are therefore urgently needed. However, the debate continues about the most effective approaches. To inform future prevention programmes, we systematically reviewed the evidence on the effectiveness of possible salt reduction interventions. We further compared "downstream, agentic" approaches targeting individuals with "upstream, structural" policy-based population strategies.

METHODS

We searched six electronic databases (CDSR, CRD, MEDLINE, SCI, SCOPUS and the Campbell Library) using a pre-piloted search strategy focussing on the effectiveness of population interventions to reduce salt intake. Retrieved papers were independently screened, appraised and graded for quality by two researchers. To facilitate comparisons between the interventions, the extracted data were categorised using nine stages along the agentic/structural continuum, from "downstream": dietary counselling (for individuals, worksites or communities), through media campaigns, nutrition labelling, voluntary and mandatory reformulation, to the most "upstream" regulatory and fiscal interventions, and comprehensive strategies involving multiple components.

RESULTS

After screening 2,526 candidate papers, 70 were included in this systematic review (49 empirical studies and 21 modelling studies). Some papers described several interventions. Quality was variable. Multi-component strategies involving both upstream and downstream interventions, generally achieved the biggest reductions in salt consumption across an entire population, most notably 4g/day in Finland and Japan, 3g/day in Turkey and 1.3g/day recently in the UK. Mandatory reformulation alone could achieve a reduction of approximately 1.45g/day (three separate studies), followed by voluntary reformulation (-0.8g/day), school interventions (-0.7g/day), short term dietary advice (-0.6g/day) and nutrition labelling (-0.4g/day), but each with a wide range. Tax and community based counselling could, each typically reduce salt intake by 0.3g/day, whilst even smaller population benefits were derived from health education media campaigns (-0.1g/day). Worksite interventions achieved an increase in intake (+0.5g/day), however, with a very wide range. Long term dietary advice could achieve a -2g/day reduction under optimal research trial conditions; however, smaller reductions might be anticipated in unselected individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Comprehensive strategies involving multiple components (reformulation, food labelling and media campaigns) and "upstream" population-wide policies such as mandatory reformulation generally appear to achieve larger reductions in population-wide salt consumption than "downstream", individually focussed interventions. This 'effectiveness hierarchy' might deserve greater emphasis in future NCD prevention strategies.

A systematic review of economic evaluations of population-based sodium reduction interventions

OBJECTIVE

To summarise evidence describing the cost-effectiveness of population-based interventions targeting sodium reduction.

METHODS

A systematic search of published and grey literature databases and websites was conducted using specified key words. Characteristics of identified economic evaluations were recorded, and included studies were appraised for reporting quality using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist.

RESULTS

Twenty studies met the study inclusion criteria and received a full paper review. Fourteen studies were identified as full economic evaluations in that they included both costs and benefits associated with an intervention measured against a comparator. Most studies were modelling exercises based on scenarios for achieving salt reduction and assumed effects on health outcomes. All 14 studies concluded that their specified intervention(s) targeting reductions in population sodium consumption were cost-effective, and in the majority of cases, were cost saving. Just over half the studies (8/14) were assessed as being of 'excellent' reporting quality, five studies fell into the 'very good' quality category and one into the 'good' category. All of the identified evaluations were based on modelling, whereby inputs for all the key parameters including the effect size were either drawn from published datasets, existing literature or based on expert advice.

CONCLUSION

Despite a clear increase in evaluations of salt reduction programs in recent years, this review identified relatively few economic evaluations of population salt reduction interventions. None of the studies were based on actual implementation of intervention(s) and the associated collection of new empirical data. The studies universally showed that population-based salt reduction strategies are likely to be cost effective or cost saving. However, given the reliance on modelling, there is a need for the effectiveness of new interventions to be evaluated in the field using strong study designs and parallel economic evaluations.

Predicting the health impact of lowering salt consumption in Turkey using the DYNAMO health impact assessment tool

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the impact of three daily salt consumption scenarios on the prevalence and incidence of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease in 2025 in the Turkish population aged ≥30 years using the DYNAMO Health Impact Assessment tool.

STUDY DESIGN

Statistical disease modelling study.

METHODS

DYNAMO health impact assessment was populated using data from Turkey to estimate the prevalence and incidence of IHD and cerebrovascular disease in 2025. TurkSTAT data were used for demographic data, and national surveys were used for salt consumption and disease-specific burden. Three salt consumption scenarios were modelled: (1) reference scenario: mean salt consumption stays the same from 2012-2013 until 2025; (2) gradual decline: daily salt intake reduces steadily by 0.47 g per year by lowering salt intake from bread by 50% and from table salt by 40% by 2025; and (3) World Health Organization (WHO) advice: daily salt intake of 5 g per day from 2013 until 2025.

RESULTS

The gradual decline scenario would lead to a decrease in the prevalence of IHD and cerebrovascular disease by 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, and a decrease in the incidence by 0.6 and 0.4 per 1000, respectively. Following WHO's advice would lead to a decrease in the prevalence of IHD and cerebrovascular disease by 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively, and a decrease in the incidence by 1.0 and 0.7 per 1000, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This model indicates that Turkey can lower its future cardiovascular disease burden by following the gradual decline scenario. Following WHO's advice would achieve an even greater benefit.