Uptake of self-management education programmes for people with type 2 diabetes in primary care through the embedding package: a cluster randomised control trial and ethnographic study

BACKGROUND

Self-management education programmes are cost-effective in helping people with type 2 diabetes manage their diabetes, but referral and attendance rates are low. This study reports on the effectiveness of the Embedding Package, a programme designed to increase type 2 diabetes self-management programme attendance in primary care.

METHODS

Using a cluster randomised design, 66 practices were randomised to: (1) a wait-list group that provided usual care for nine months before receiving the Embedding Package for nine months, or (2) an immediate group that received the Embedding Package for 18 months. 'Embedders' supported practices and self-management programme providers to embed programme referral into routine practice, and an online 'toolkit' contained embedding support resources. Patient-level HbA1c (primary outcome), programme referral and attendance data, and clinical data from 92,977 patients with type 2 diabetes were collected at baseline (months - 3-0), step one (months 1-9), step 2 (months 10-18), and 12 months post-intervention. An integrated ethnographic study including observations, interviews, and document analysis was conducted using interpretive thematic analysis and Normalisation Process Theory.

RESULTS

No significant difference was found in HbA1c between intervention and control conditions (adjusted mean difference [95% confidence interval]: -0.10 [-0.38, 0.18] mmol/mol; -0.01 [-0.03, 0.02] %). Statistically but not clinically significantly lower levels of HbA1c were found in people of ethnic minority groups compared with non-ethnic minority groups during the intervention condition (-0.64 [-1.08, -0.20] mmol/mol; -0.06% [-0.10, -0.02], p = 0.004), but not greater self-management programme attendance. Twelve months post-intervention data showed statistically but not clinically significantly lower HbA1c (-0.56 [95% confidence interval: -0.71, -0.42] mmol/mol; -0.05 [-0.06, -0.04] %; p < 0.001), and higher self-management programme attendance (adjusted odds ratio: 1.13; 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.25; p = 0.017) during intervention conditions. Themes identified through the ethnographic study included challenges for Embedders in making and sustaining contact with practices and providers, and around practices' interactions with the toolkit.

CONCLUSIONS

Barriers to implementing the Embedding Package may have compromised its effectiveness. Statistically but not clinically significantly improved HbA1c among ethnic minority groups and in longer-term follow-up suggest that future research exploring methods of embedding diabetes self-management programmes into routine care is warranted.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN23474120, registered 05/04/2018.

Identifying Preferred Features of Weight Loss Programs for Adults With or at Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: A Discrete Choice Experiment With 3,960 Adults in the U.K

OBJECTIVE

To understand preferences for features of weight loss programs among adults with or at risk of type 2 diabetes in the U.K.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a discrete choice experiment with 3,960 U.K. adults living with overweight (n = 675 with type 2 diabetes). Preferences for seven characteristics of weight loss programs were analyzed. Simulations from choice models using the experimental data predicted uptake of available weight loss programs. Patient groups comprising those who have experience with weight loss programs, including from minority communities, informed the experimental design.

RESULTS

Preferences did not differ between individuals with and without type 2 diabetes. Preferences were strongest for type of diet. Healthy eating was most preferred relative to total diet replacement (odds ratio [OR] 2.24; 95% CI 2.04-2.44). Individual interventions were more popular than group interventions (OR 1.40; 95% CI 1.34-1.47). Participants preferred programs offering weight loss of 10-15 kg (OR 1.37; 95% CI 1.28-1.47) to those offering loss of 2-4 kg. Online content was preferred over in-person contact (OR 1.24; 95% CI 1.18-1.30). There were few differences in preferences by gender or ethnicity, although weight loss was more important to women than to men, and individuals from ethnic minority populations identified more with programs where others shared their characteristics. Modeling suggested that tailoring programs to individual preferences could increase participation by ∼17 percentage points (68% in relative terms).

CONCLUSIONS

Offering a range of weight loss programs targeting the preferred attributes of different patient groups could potentially encourage more people to participate in weight loss programs and support those living with overweight to reduce their weight.

Cross-model validation of public health microsimulation models; comparing two models on estimated effects of a weight management intervention

BACKGROUND

Health economic modelling indicates that referral to a behavioural weight management programme is cost saving and generates QALY gains compared with a brief intervention. The aim of this study was to conduct a cross-model validation comparing outcomes from this cost-effectiveness analysis to those of a comparator model, to understand how differences in model structure contribute to outcomes.

METHODS

The outcomes produced by two models, the School for Public Health Research diabetes prevention (SPHR) and Health Checks (HC) models, were compared for three weight-management programme strategies; Weight Watchers (WW) for 12 weeks, WW for 52 weeks, and a brief intervention, and a simulated no intervention scenario. Model inputs were standardised, and iterative adjustments were made to each model to identify drivers of differences in key outcomes.

RESULTS

The total QALYs estimated by the HC model were higher in all treatment groups than those estimated by the SPHR model, and there was a large difference in incremental QALYs between the models. SPHR simulated greater QALY gains for 12-week WW and 52-week WW relative to the Brief Intervention. Comparisons across socioeconomic groups found a stronger socioeconomic gradient in the SPHR model. Removing the impact of treatment on HbA1c from the SPHR model, running both models only with the conditions that the models have in common and, to a lesser extent, changing the data used to estimate risk factor trajectories, resulted in more consistent model outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The key driver of difference between the models was the inclusion of extra evidence-based detail in SPHR on the impacts of treatments on HbA1c. The conclusions were less sensitive to the dataset used to inform the risk factor trajectories. These findings strengthen the original cost-effectiveness analyses of the weight management interventions and provide an increased understanding of what is structurally important in the models.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of two interventions to promote physical activity in a multiethnic population at high risk of diabetes: an economic evaluation of the 48-month PROPELS randomized controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Physical activity (PA) is protective against type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, data on pragmatic long-term interventions to reduce the risk of developing T2D via increased PA are lacking. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of a pragmatic PA intervention in a multiethnic population at high risk of T2D.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We adapted the School for Public Health Research diabetes prevention model, using the PROPELS trial data and analyses of the NAVIGATOR trial. Lifetime costs, lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for each intervention (Walking Away (WA) and Walking Away Plus (WA+)) versus usual care and compared with National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's willingness-to-pay of £20 000-£30 000 per QALY gained. We conducted scenario analyses on the outcomes of the PROPELS trial data and a threshold analysis to determine the change in step count that would be needed for the interventions to be cost-effective.

RESULTS

Estimated lifetime costs for usual care, WA, and WA+ were £22 598, £23 018, and £22 945, respectively. Estimated QALYs were 9.323, 9.312, and 9.330, respectively. WA+ was estimated to be more effective and cheaper than WA. WA+ had an ICER of £49 273 per QALY gained versus usual care. In none of our scenario analyses did either WA or WA+ have an ICER below £20 000 per QALY gained. Our threshold analysis suggested that a PA intervention costing the same as WA+ would have an ICER below £20 000/QALY if it were to achieve an increase in step count of 500 steps per day which was 100% maintained at 4 years.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that neither WA nor WA+ was cost-effective at a limit of £20 000 per QALY gained. Our threshold analysis showed that interventions to increase step count can be cost-effective at this limit if they achieve greater long-term maintenance of effect.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN registration: ISRCTN83465245: The PRomotion Of Physical activity through structuredEducation with differing Levels of ongoing Support for those with pre-diabetes (PROPELS)https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN83465245.

Estimating quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) for local authorities in Great Britain and its association with indicators of the inclusive economy: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

Quantifying area-level inequalities in population health can help to inform policy responses. We describe an approach for estimating quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), a comprehensive health expectancy measure, for local authorities (LAs) in Great Britain (GB). To identify potential factors accounting for LA-level QALE inequalities, we examined the association between inclusive economy indicators and QALE.

SETTING

361/363 LAs in GB (lower tier/district level) within the period 2018-2020.

DATA AND METHODS

We estimated life tables for LAs using official statistics and utility scores from an area-level linkage of the Understanding Society survey. Using the Sullivan method, we estimated QALE at birth in years with corresponding 80% CIs. To examine the association between inclusive economy indicators and QALE, we used an open access data set operationalising the inclusive economy, created by the System Science in Public Health and Health Economics Research consortium.

RESULTS

Population-weighted QALE estimates across LAs in GB were lowest in Scotland (females/males: 65.1 years/64.9 years) and Wales (65.0 years/65.2 years), while they were highest in England (67.5 years/67.6 years). The range across LAs for females was from 56.3 years (80% CI 45.6 to 67.1) in Mansfield to 77.7 years (80% CI 65.11 to 90.2) in Runnymede. QALE for males ranged from 57.5 years (80% CI 40.2 to 74.7) in Merthyr Tydfil to 77.2 years (80% CI 65.4 to 89.1) in Runnymede. Indicators of the inclusive economy accounted for more than half of the variation in QALE at the LA level (adjusted R2 females/males: 50%/57%). Although more inclusivity was generally associated with higher levels of QALE at the LA level, this association was not consistent across all 13 inclusive economy indicators.

CONCLUSIONS

QALE can be estimated for LAs in GB, enabling further research into area-level health inequalities. The associations we identified between inclusive economy indicators and QALE highlight potential policy priorities for improving population health and reducing health inequalities.

Geographical differences in the financial impacts of different forms of tobacco licence fees on small retailers in Scotland

OBJECTIVE

Retailer licencing fees are a promising avenue to regulate tobacco availability. However, they face strong opposition from retailers and the tobacco industry, who argue significant financial impacts. This study compares the impacts of different forms of tobacco licence schemes on retailers' profits in Scotland.

METHODS

We calculated gross profits from tobacco sales in 179 convenience stores across Scotland using 1 099 697 electronic point-of-sale records from 16 weeks between 2019 and 2022. We estimated different fees using universal, volumetric and separate urban/rural schemes. We identified the point at which 50% of retailers would no longer make a gross profit on tobacco sales for each scheme and modelled the financial impact of 10 incremental fee levels. The financial impact was assessed based on changes in retailers' tobacco gross profits. Differences by neighbourhood deprivation and urban/rural status were examined.

RESULTS

The gross profit from tobacco per convenience store averaged £15 859/year. Profits were 2.29 times higher in urban (vs rural) areas and 1.59 times higher in high-deprivation (vs low-deprivation) areas, attributable to higher sales volumes. Tobacco gross profit decreased proportionally with increasing fee levels. Universal and urban/rural fees had greater gross profit reductions in rural and/or less deprived areas, where profits were lower, compared with volumetric fees.

CONCLUSION

The introduction of tobacco licence fees offers a potential opportunity for reducing the availability of tobacco retailers. The likely impact of a tobacco licence fee is sensitive to the type of licence scheme implemented, the level at which fees are set and the retailers' location in relation to neighbourhood deprivation and rurality.

Commentary on Antosz et al. (2023): The role of macro-micro-macro frameworks and critical realism in agent-based modelling

Antosz and colleagues' review of the role of theory in agent-based modelling (ABM) makes important recommendations for modelling practitioners. However, macro-micro-macro frameworks are not necessarily as reliant on existing theory as the review suggests. Adopting a critical realist perspective to ABM design would help to deliver the recommendations, within which macro-micro-macro frameworks can play an important enabling role.

Estimation of integrated price elasticities for alcohol and tobacco in the United Kingdom using the living costs and food survey 2006-2017

INTRODUCTION

Evidence shows that price is an important policy lever in reducing consumption of alcohol and tobacco. However, there is little evidence of the cross-price effect between alcohol and tobacco.

METHODS

This paper uses an econometric model which estimates participation and consumption elasticities, on data from the UK Living Costs and Food Survey 2006-2017 and extends the literature by, for the first time, estimating joint price elasticities for disaggregated alcohol and tobacco products. This paper presents new price elasticities and compares them to the existing literature.

RESULTS

The own-price elasticity estimates are all negative for both participation and consumption. There is no pattern to the estimates of cross-price elasticities. The elasticity estimates, when used in the Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Model, produce bigger changes in consumption for the same change in price compared to other elasticity estimates in the existing literature.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Consumption of alcohol and tobacco are affected by the prices of one another. Policymakers should bear this in mind when devising alcohol or tobacco pricing policies.

Mapping alcohol and tobacco tax policy interventions to inform health and economic impact analyses: A United Kingdom based qualitative framework analysis

BACKGROUND

Alcohol and tobacco have different policy regimes and there is little understanding of how changes to policy on each commodity might combine to affect the same outcomes or to affect people who both drink and smoke. The aim of this study was to deepen understanding of the policy objectives of UK alcohol and tobacco tax options being considered at the time of the interviews with a set of UK policy participants in 2018, and the factors affecting the implementation and outcomes of the policy options discussed.

METHODS

Ten tax policy experts were recruited from government arms-length organisations and advocacy groups in England and Scotland (4 alcohol, 4 tobacco, 2 alcohol and tobacco). Alcohol and tobacco experts were interviewed together in pairs and asked to discuss alcohol and tobacco tax policy objectives, options, and the mechanisms of effect. Interviews were semi-structured, supported by a briefing document and topic guide, audio-recorded, transcribed and then analysed deductively using framework analysis.

RESULTS

Alcohol and tobacco tax policy share objectives of health improvement and there is a common set of policy options: increasing duty rates, duty escalators, multi-rate tax structures, industry levies and the hypothecation of tax revenue for investment in societal benefits. However, participants agreed that the harms caused by alcohol and tobacco and their industries are viewed differently, and that this influences the impacts that are prioritised in tax policymaking. Working-out how alcohol and tobacco taxes could work synergistically to reduce health inequalities was seen as desirable. Participants also highlighted the importance of avoiding the combined effects of price increases on alcohol and tobacco widening economic inequalities.

CONCLUSIONS

Impact analyses should consider the combined effects of alcohol and tobacco tax policies on health and economic inequalities, and how the effects of changes to the tax on each commodity might trade-off.

Estimation of HbA1c after weight loss using a beta-regression for an economic evaluation of a behavioural weight management programme from the GLoW trial: a methodological study

BACKGROUND

In economic evaluations, average intervention effects are usually applied to a population. However, this fails to reflect the change in the distribution of HbA1c due to heterogeneous responses to weight loss. We aimed to investigate whether allowing heterogeneous treatment effects using a beta regression better represented the distribution of HbA1c after a weight-loss intervention, and how this affected cost effectiveness.

METHODS

The Glucose Lowering through Weight Management (GLoW) trial evaluated the effectiveness of a diabetes education and weight-loss intervention against a standard diabetes education programme. Adults diagnosed with type 2 diabetes within 3 years were recruited from Clinical Commissioning Groups across 159 sites in England from July 20, 2018, to July 22, 2018. Ethics approval (18/ES/0048) and participant informed consent were obtained. Considering the between-treatment-arm difference in HbA1c after 12 months, we compared a mean-effect estimated from a mixed-effects regression to a heterogeneous effect estimated from a beta regression performed on 12-month HbA1c conditional on baseline HbA1c, gender, diabetes duration and intervention group. We used the School of Public Health Research (SPHR) Diabetes Treatment model to apply these treatment effects and evaluate the lifetime NHS costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), discounted at 3·5%. The microsimulation model estimated diabetes-related health outcomes using the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 risk equations and risk factor trajectory equations, alongside estimating diabetes remission, osteoarthritis, and cancer. We calculated the incremental net benefit (INB) of the intervention using a £20 000 per QALY valuation, by deterministic analysis. The GLoW trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN18399564.

FINDINGS

The trial recruited 577 participants (mean age 60 years; 278 [53%] female, 247 [47%] male; 474 [91%] white ethnic background). Applying heterogeneous HbA1c changes better reproduced the skewness in post-intervention HbA1c than applying a mean-effect (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p=0·02 compared with p=0·0000007). The beta-regression method suggested the intervention was more cost-effective, estimating an INB of £736 per person, compared with £584 when applying the mean-effect.

INTERPRETATION

Alternative regression specification methods should be considered when evaluating the cost-effectiveness of interventions if the key intervention outcomes are not normally distributed. However, this alternative method requires further investigation to conclude its appropriateness in evaluating cost-effectiveness in different contexts.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme (Reference Number RP-PG0216-20010).

Options for modifying UK alcohol and tobacco tax: A rapid scoping review of the evidence over the period 1997-2018

Background

Increased taxation is recognised worldwide as one of the most effective interventions for decreasing tobacco and harmful alcohol use, with many variations of policy options available. This rapid scoping review was part of a NIHR-funded project ('SYNTAX' 16/105/26) and was undertaken during 2018 to inform interviews to be conducted with UK public health stakeholders with expertise in alcohol and tobacco pricing policy.

Methods

Objectives: To synthesise evidence and debates on current and potential alcohol and tobacco taxation options for the UK, and report on the underlying objectives, evidence of effects and mediating factors.Eligibility criteria: Peer-reviewed and grey literature; published 1997-2018; English language; UK-focused; include taxation interventions for alcohol, tobacco, or both. Sources of evidence: PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Google, stakeholder and colleague recommendations.Charting methods: Excel spreadsheet structured using PICO framework, recording source characteristics and content.

Results

Ninety-one sources qualified for inclusion: 49 alcohol, 36 tobacco, 6 both. Analysis identified four policy themes: changes to excise duty within existing tax structures, structural reforms, industry measures, and hypothecation of tax revenue for public benefits. For alcohol, policy options focused on raising the price of cheap, high-strength alcohol. For tobacco, policy options focused on raising the price of all tobacco products, especially the cheapest products, which are hand-rolling tobacco. For alcohol and tobacco, there were options such as levies that take money from the industries to help reduce the societal costs of their products. Due to the perceived social and economic importance of alcohol in contrast to tobacco, policy options also discussed supporting pubs and small breweries.

Conclusions

This review has identified a set of tax policy options for tobacco and alcohol, their objectives, evidence of effects and related mediating factors. The differences between alcohol and tobacco tax policy options and debates suggest an opportunity for cross-substance policy learning.

A large outbreak of the Kappa mutation of COVID-19 in Cork, Ireland, April-May 2021

BACKGROUND

In May 2021, the B.1.617 variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Ireland, and both Delta and Kappa sub-lineages were initially deemed variants of concern (VOCs) on a precautionary basis. We describe a large outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.1 (Kappa mutation) linked to a private gathering among third level students in Cork, Ireland.

METHODS

Surveillance data were available from the Health Service Executive COVID Care Tracker. The epidemiological sequence of infection for each new case in this outbreak was tracked and whole genome sequencing was requested on all linked cases. Enhanced public health control measures were implemented by the Department of Public Health HSE-South to contain onward spread of VOCs, including retrospective contact tracing, lengthy isolation and quarantine periods for cases and close contacts. Extensive surveillance efforts were used to describe and control onward transmission.

RESULTS

There were 146 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases linked to the outbreak. All sequenced cases (53/146; 36%) confirmed Kappa mutation. The median age was 21 years (range 17-65). The majority (88%) had symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection. There were 407 close contacts; the median was 3 per case (range 0-14). There were no known hospitalisations, ICU admissions or deaths. Vaccination data was unavailable, but the outbreak pre-dated routine availability of COVID-19 vaccines among younger adults in Ireland.

CONCLUSION

Enhanced public health control measures for new and emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 may be burdensome for cases and close contacts. The overall public health benefit of enhanced controls may only become apparent when evidence on disease transmissibility and severity becomes more complete.

Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions

To help health economic modelers respond to demands for greater use of complex systems models in public health. To propose identifiable features of such models and support researchers to plan public health modeling projects using these models. A working group of experts in complex systems modeling and economic evaluation was brought together to develop and jointly write guidance for the use of complex systems models for health economic analysis. The content of workshops was informed by a scoping review. A public health complex systems model for economic evaluation is defined as a quantitative, dynamic, non-linear model that incorporates feedback and interactions among model elements, in order to capture emergent outcomes and estimate health, economic and potentially other consequences to inform public policies. The guidance covers: when complex systems modeling is needed; principles for designing a complex systems model; and how to choose an appropriate modeling technique. This paper provides a definition to identify and characterize complex systems models for economic evaluations and proposes guidance on key aspects of the process for health economics analysis. This document will support the development of complex systems models, with impact on public health systems policy and decision making.

Evaluating the effects of minimum unit pricing in Scotland on the prevalence of harmful drinking: a controlled interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVES

In May 2018, the Scottish Government introduced a minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol of £0.50 (1 UK unit = 8 g ethanol) to reduce alcohol consumption, particularly among people drinking at harmful levels. This study aimed to evaluate MUP's impact on the prevalence of harmful drinking among adults in Scotland.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a controlled interrupted monthly time series analysis of repeat cross-sectional data collected via 1-week drinking diaries from adult drinkers in Scotland (N = 38,674) and Northern England (N = 71,687) between January 2009 and February 2020.

METHODS

The primary outcome was the proportion of drinkers consuming at harmful levels (>50 [men] or >35 [women] units in diary week). The secondary outcomes included the proportion of drinkers consuming at hazardous (≥14-50 [men] or ≥14-35 [women] units) and moderate (<14 units) levels and measures of beverage preferences and drinking patterns. Analyses also examined the prevalence of harmful drinking in key subgroups.

RESULTS

There was no significant change in the proportion of drinkers consuming at harmful levels (β = +0.6 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -1.1, +2.3) or moderate levels (β = +1.4 percentage points; 95% confidence interval = -1.1, +3.8) after the introduction of MUP. The proportion consuming at hazardous levels fell significantly by 3.5 percentage points (95% CI = -5.4, -1.7). There were no significant changes in other secondary outcomes or in the subgroup analyses after correction for multiple testing.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing MUP in Scotland was not associated with reductions in the proportion of drinkers consuming at harmful levels but did reduce the prevalence of hazardous drinking. This adds to previous evidence that MUP reduced overall alcohol consumption in Scotland and consumption among those drinking above moderate levels.

Can Social Norms Explain Long-Term Trends in Alcohol Use? Insights from Inverse Generative Social Science

Social psychological theory posits entities and mechanisms that attempt to explain observable differences in behavior. For example, dual process theory suggests that an agent's behavior is influenced by intentional (arising from reasoning involving attitudes and perceived norms) and unintentional (i.e., habitual) processes. In order to pass the generative sufficiency test as an explanation of alcohol use, we argue that the theory should be able to explain notable patterns in alcohol use that exist in the population, e.g., the distinct differences in drinking prevalence and average quantities consumed by males and females. In this study, we further develop and apply inverse generative social science (iGSS) methods to an existing agent-based model of dual process theory of alcohol use. Using iGSS, implemented within a multi-objective grammar-based genetic program, we search through the space of model structures to identify whether a single parsimonious model can best explain both male and female drinking, or whether separate and more complex models are needed. Focusing on alcohol use trends in New York State, we identify an interpretable model structure that achieves high goodness-of-fit for both male and female drinking patterns simultaneously, and which also validates successfully against reserved trend data. This structure offers a novel interpretation of the role of norms in formulating drinking intentions, but the structure's theoretical validity is questioned by its suggestion that individuals with low autonomy would act against perceived descriptive norms. Improved evidence on the distribution of autonomy in the population is needed to understand whether this finding is substantive or is a modeling artefact.

Effectiveness of subnational implementation of minimum unit price for alcohol: policy appraisal modelling for local authorities in England

AIMS

Evidence exists on the potential impact of national level minimum unit price (MUP) policies for alcohol. This study investigated the potential effectiveness of implementing MUP at regional and local levels compared with national implementation.

DESIGN

Evidence synthesis and computer modelling using the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model (Local Authority version 4.0; SAPMLA).

SETTING

Results are produced for 23 Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) in North West England, 12 UTLAs in North East England, 15 UTLAs in Yorkshire and Humber, the nine English Government Office regions and England as a whole.

CASES

Health Survey for England (HSE) data 2011-13 (n = 24 685).

MEASUREMENTS

Alcohol consumption, consumer spending, retailers' revenues, hospitalizations, National Health Service costs, crimes and alcohol-attributable deaths and health inequalities.

FINDINGS

Implementing a local £0.50 MUP for alcohol in northern English regions is estimated to result in larger percentage reductions in harms than the national average. The reductions for England, North West, North East and Yorkshire and Humber regions, respectively, in annual alcohol-attributable deaths are 1024 (-10.4%), 205 (-11.4%), 121 (-17.4%) and 159 (-16.9%); for hospitalizations are 29 943 (-4.6%), 5956 (-5.5%), 3255 (-7.9%) and 4610 (-6.9%); and for crimes are 54 229 (-2.4%), 8528 (-2.5%), 4380 (-3.5%) and 8220 (-3.2%). Results vary among local authorities; for example, annual alcohol-attributable deaths estimated to change by between -8.0 and -24.8% throughout the 50 UTLAs examined.

CONCLUSIONS

A minimum unit price local policy for alcohol is likely to be more effective in those regions, such as the three northern regions of England, which have higher levels of alcohol consumption and higher rates of alcohol harm than for the national average. In such regions, the minimum unit price policy would achieve larger reductions in alcohol consumption, alcohol-attributable mortality, hospitalization rates, NHS costs, crime rates and health inequalities.

161 CLEAR DISCHARGE PRESCRIBING IN STROKE PATIENTS: A RETROSPECTIVE AUDIT OF DUAL ANTIPLATELET DURATION AT FIRST FOLLOW-UP APPOINTMENT

Background

The risk of further ischaemic events post stroke and TIA is high in the following weeks. Short term treatment with Dual Anti-Platelet Therapy (DAPT) in appropriate patients has been shown to decrease the incidence of recurrent ischaemic events. However continuing DAPT longer than six weeks increases the risk of haemorrhagic complications.

Methods

Retrospective analysis of patients admitted to the Acute Stroke Unit over 4 months in a tertiary referral centre, reviewing discharge summaries and follow-up Outpatient Department (OPD) clinic letters on the online hospital computer system.

Results

We analysed data from 205 patients. 57 patients were discharged on DAPT. Of those, 18(31.6%) did not have a recommended duration of DAPT documented in their discharge summary. 40 patients returned to OPD for review, 16 patients had no documented follow-up, 11 were repatriated to a referring hospital for follow-up locally. The average time of OPD review was 4 months post discharge. Of those 40 patients who attended OPD follow up appointment, 33(82.5%) had documented evidence of a medication review in clinic. 9 of those patients (27.3%) were still inappropriately on DAPT, 5 of whom (55.6%) had no DAPT duration instructions documented in the discharge summary.

Conclusion

Treatment with DAPT puts patients at risk of haemorrhagic complications with longer term use. Clear documentation of treatment duration and communication with the patient and the patient’s GP is vital to ensure medication errors and unnecessary complications for the patient are avoided. Intervention: Following these results, we organised an education session for the Stroke Department staff and re-designed the stroke discharge summary template to highlight instructions on DAPT duration. We also emphasised the importance of communication with the patient’s GP and medication counselling with patients.

Associations between DAPT score and long-term mortality post PCI

Introduction

The dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) score was developed to identify patients more likely to derive benefit (score ≥2) or harm (score &lt;2) from DAPT beyond 1-year post PCI. There is no study which looked at the DAPT score and long term outcomes post PCI in Australia.

Purpose

We sought to examine long-term mortality after PCI by the DAPT score in patients treated with DAPT per local guidelines.

Methods

We examined data from the MIG PCI database from 2005 to 2018 in whom the DAPT score could be derived and grouped them as score ≥2 or &lt;2. Long-term mortality was assessed from National Death Index linkage. The primary endpoint was long-term mortality examined using survival analysis. Secondary endpoints included 30-day ischaemic outcomes and in-hospital major bleeding.

Results

Out of 27,740 patients in the study, 9,401 (33.9%) had DAPT score ≥2. They were younger and included more females and higher prevalence of renal impairment. DAPT score ≥2 patients had higher in-hospital major bleeding, 30-day mortality, MI and target vessel revascularisation. DAPT score ≥2 patients had lower long-term survival to 12 years (p&lt;0.001 for all).

Conclusion

A third of all-comer PCI patients had DAPT score ≥2 with greater short-term risk of ischaemic and bleeding outcomes, as well as long-term mortality. Theoretically, those with DAPT score ≥2 would benefit from longer duration of DAPT as ischaemic risk outweighs bleeding risk. However, given our finding of increased short-term bleeding risk and long-term mortality, dynamic bleeding risk assessment should be undertaken to guide pharmacotherapy strategies.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of referral to a commercial open group behavioural weight management programme in adults with overweight and obesity: 5-year follow-up of the WRAP randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

There is evidence that commercially available behavioural weight management programmes can lead to short-term weight loss and reductions in glycaemia. Here, we aimed to provide the 5-year impact and cost-effectiveness of these interventions compared with a brief intervention.

METHODS

WRAP was a non-blinded, parallel-group randomised controlled trial (RCT). We recruited from primary care practices in England and randomly assigned participants to one of three interventions (brief intervention, 12-week open-group behavioural programme [WW, formerly Weight Watchers], or a 52-week open-group WW behavioural programme) in an uneven (2:5:5) allocation. Participants were followed up 5 years after randomisation using data from measurement visits at primary care practices or a research centre, review of primary care electronic medical notes, and self-report questionnaires. The primary outcome was change in weight at 5 years follow-up, assessed using analysis of covariance. We also estimated cost-effectiveness of the intervention. This study is registered at Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN64986150.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 18, 2012, and Feb 10, 2014, we recruited 1269 eligible participants (two participants were randomly assigned but not eligible and therefore excluded) and 1040 (82%) consented to be approached about additional follow-up and to have their medical notes reviewed at 5 years. The primary outcome (weight) was ascertained for 871 (69%) of 1267 eligible participants. Mean duration of follow-up was 5·1 (SD 0·3) years. Mean weight change from baseline to 5 years was -0·46 (SD 8·31) kg in the brief intervention group, -1·95 (9·55) kg in the 12-week programme group, and -2·67 (9·81) kg in the 52-week programme. The adjusted difference in weight change was -1·76 (95% CI -3·68 to 0·17) kg between the 52-week programme and the brief intervention; -0·80 (-2·13 to 0·54) kg between the 52-week and the 12-week programme; and -0·96 (-2·90 to 0·97) kg between the 12-week programme and the brief intervention. During the trial, the 12-week programme incurred the lowest cost and produced the highest quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). Simulations beyond 5 years suggested that the 52-week programme would deliver the highest QALYs at the lowest cost and would be the most cost-effective. No participants reported adverse events related to the intervention.

INTERPRETATION

Although the difference in weight change between groups was not statistically significant, some weight loss was maintained at 5 years after an open-group behavioural weight management programme. Health economic modelling suggests that this could have important implications to reduce the incidence of weight-related disease and these interventions might be cost-saving.

FUNDING

The UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Programme Grants for Applied Research and the Medical Research Council.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of referral to a commercial open group behavioural weight management programme in adults with overweight and obesity: 5-year follow-up of the WRAP randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

There is evidence that commercially available behavioural weight management programmes can lead to short-term weight loss and reductions in glycaemia. Here, we aimed to provide the 5-year impact and cost-effectiveness of these interventions compared with a brief intervention.

METHODS

WRAP was a non-blinded, parallel-group randomised controlled trial (RCT). We recruited from primary care practices in England and randomly assigned participants to one of three interventions (brief intervention, 12-week open-group behavioural programme [WW, formerly Weight Watchers], or a 52-week open-group WW behavioural programme) in an uneven (2:5:5) allocation. Participants were followed up 5 years after randomisation using data from measurement visits at primary care practices or a research centre, review of primary care electronic medical notes, and self-report questionnaires. The primary outcome was change in weight at 5 years follow-up, assessed using analysis of covariance. We also estimated cost-effectiveness of the intervention. This study is registered at Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN64986150.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 18, 2012, and Feb 10, 2014, we recruited 1269 eligible participants (two participants were randomly assigned but not eligible and therefore excluded) and 1040 (82%) consented to be approached about additional follow-up and to have their medical notes reviewed at 5 years. The primary outcome (weight) was ascertained for 871 (69%) of 1267 eligible participants. Mean duration of follow-up was 5·1 (SD 0·3) years. Mean weight change from baseline to 5 years was -0·46 (SD 8·31) kg in the brief intervention group, -1·95 (9·55) kg in the 12-week programme group, and -2·67 (9·81) kg in the 52-week programme. The adjusted difference in weight change was -1·76 (95% CI -3·68 to 0·17) kg between the 52-week programme and the brief intervention; -0·80 (-2·13 to 0·54) kg between the 52-week and the 12-week programme; and -0·96 (-2·90 to 0·97) kg between the 12-week programme and the brief intervention. During the trial, the 12-week programme incurred the lowest cost and produced the highest quality-adjusted life-years (QALY). Simulations beyond 5 years suggested that the 52-week programme would deliver the highest QALYs at the lowest cost and would be the most cost-effective. No participants reported adverse events related to the intervention.

INTERPRETATION

Although the difference in weight change between groups was not statistically significant, some weight loss was maintained at 5 years after an open-group behavioural weight management programme. Health economic modelling suggests that this could have important implications to reduce the incidence of weight-related disease and these interventions might be cost-saving.

FUNDING

The UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Programme Grants for Applied Research and the Medical Research Council.

Hypo-METRICS: Hypoglycaemia-MEasurement, ThResholds and ImpaCtS-A multi-country clinical study to define the optimal threshold and duration of sensor-detected hypoglycaemia that impact the experience of hypoglycaemia, quality of life and health economic outcomes: The study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Hypoglycaemia is a significant burden to people living with diabetes and an impediment to achieving optimal glycaemic outcomes. The use of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) has improved the capacity to assess duration and level of hypoglycaemia. The personal impact of sensor-detected hypoglycaemia (SDH) is unclear. Hypo-METRICS is an observational study designed to define the threshold and duration of sensor glucose that provides the optimal sensitivity and specificity for events that people living with diabetes experience as hypoglycaemia.

METHODS

We will recruit 600 participants: 350 with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes, 200 with type 1 diabetes and awareness of hypoglycaemia and 50 with type 1 diabetes and impaired awareness of hypoglycaemia who have recent experience of hypoglycaemia. Participants will wear a blinded CGM device and an actigraphy monitor to differentiate awake and sleep times for 10 weeks. Participants will be asked to complete three short surveys each day using a bespoke mobile phone app, a technique known as ecological momentary assessment. Participants will also record all episodes of self-detected hypoglycaemia on the mobile app. We will use particle Markov chain Monte Carlo optimization to identify the optimal threshold and duration of SDH that have optimum sensitivity and specificity for detecting patient-reported hypoglycaemia. Key secondary objectives include measuring the impact of symptomatic and asymptomatic SDH on daily functioning and health economic outcomes.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The protocol was approved by local ethical boards in all participating centres. Study results will be shared with participants, in peer-reviewed journal publications and conference presentations.

The health, cost and equity impacts of restrictions on the advertisement of high fat, salt and sugar products across the transport for London network: a health economic modelling study

BACKGROUND

Policies aimed at restricting the marketing of high fat, salt and sugar products have been proposed as one way of improving population diet and reducing obesity. In 2019, Transport for London implemented advertising restrictions on high fat, salt and sugar products. A controlled interrupted time-series analysis comparing London with a north of England control, suggested that the advertising restrictions had resulted in a reduction in household energy purchases. The aim of the study presented here was to estimate the health benefits, cost savings and equity impacts of the Transport for London policy using a health economic modelling approach, from an English National Health Service and personal social services perspective.

METHODS

A diabetes prevention microsimulation model was modified to incorporate the London population and Transport for London advertising intervention. Conversion of calorie to body mass index reduction was mediated through an approximation of a mathematical model estimating weight loss. Outcomes gathered included incremental obesity, long-term diabetes and cardiovascular disease events, quality-adjusted life years, healthcare costs saved and net monetary benefit. Slope index of inequality was calculated for proportion of people with obesity across socioeconomic groups to assess equity impacts.

RESULTS

The results show that the Transport for London policy was estimated to have resulted in 94,867 (4.8%) fewer individuals with obesity, and to reduce incidence of diabetes and cardiovascular disease by 2,857 and 1,915 cases respectively within three years post intervention. The policy would produce an estimated 16,394 additional quality-adjusted life-years and save £218 m in NHS and social care costs over the lifetime of the current population. Greater benefits (e.g. a 37% higher gain in quality-adjusted life-years) were expected to accrue to individuals from the most socioeconomically deprived groups compared to the least deprived.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis suggests that there are considerable potential health and economic gains from restricting the advertisement of high fat, salt and sugar products. The population health and economic impacts of the Transport for London advertising restrictions are likely to have reduced health inequalities in London.

Exploring Structural Uncertainty and Impact of Health State Utility Values on Lifetime Outcomes in Diabetes Economic Simulation Models: Findings from the Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Quality-of-Life Challenge

BACKGROUND

Structural uncertainty can affect model-based economic simulation estimates and study conclusions. Unfortunately, unlike parameter uncertainty, relatively little is known about its magnitude of impact on life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in modeling of diabetes. We leveraged the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network, a biennial conference attended by international diabetes modeling groups, to assess structural uncertainty in simulating QALYs in type 2 diabetes simulation models.

METHODS

Eleven type 2 diabetes simulation modeling groups participated in the 9th Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge. Modeling groups simulated 5 diabetes-related intervention profiles using predefined baseline characteristics and a standard utility value set for diabetes-related complications. LYs and QALYs were reported. Simulations were repeated using lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs. Changes in LYs and QALYs from tested interventions were compared across models. Additional analyses were conducted postchallenge to investigate drivers of cross-model differences.

RESULTS

Substantial cross-model variability in incremental LYs and QALYs was observed, particularly for HbA1c and body mass index (BMI) intervention profiles. For a 0.5%-point permanent HbA1c reduction, LY gains ranged from 0.050 to 0.750. For a 1-unit permanent BMI reduction, incremental QALYs varied from a small decrease in QALYs (-0.024) to an increase of 0.203. Changes in utility values of health states had a much smaller impact (to the hundredth of a decimal place) on incremental QALYs. Microsimulation models were found to generate a mean of 3.41 more LYs than cohort simulation models (P = 0.049).

CONCLUSIONS

Variations in utility values contribute to a lesser extent than uncertainty captured as structural uncertainty. These findings reinforce the importance of assessing structural uncertainty thoroughly because the choice of model (or models) can influence study results, which can serve as evidence for resource allocation decisions.HighlightsThe findings indicate substantial cross-model variability in QALY predictions for a standardized set of simulation scenarios and is considerably larger than within model variability to alternative health state utility values (e.g., lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs).There is a need to understand and assess structural uncertainty, as the choice of model to inform resource allocation decisions can matter more than the choice of health state utility values.

Print and online textual news media coverage of UK low-risk drinking guidelines from 2014 to 2017: A review and thematic analysis

INTRODUCTION

The UK low-risk drinking guidelines were revised in 2016. Drinkers were primarily informed about the guidelines via news media, but little is known about this coverage. This study investigated the scale and content of print and online textual news media coverage of drinking guidelines in England from February 2014 to October 2017.

METHODS

We searched the Nexis database and two leading broadcasters' websites (BBC and Sky) for articles mentioning the guidelines. We randomly selected 500 articles to code for reporting date, accuracy, tone, context and purpose of mentioning the guidelines, and among these, thematically analysed 200 randomly selected articles.

RESULTS

Articles mentioned the guidelines regularly. Reporting peaked when the guidelines revision was announced (7.4% of articles). The most common type of mention was within health- or alcohol-related articles and neutral in tone (70.8%). The second most common was in articles discussing the guidelines' strengths and weaknesses, which were typically negative (14.8%). Critics discredited the guidelines' scientific basis by highlighting conflicting evidence and arguing that guideline developers acted politically. They also questioned the ethics of limiting personal autonomy to improve public health. Criticisms were partially facilitated by announcing the guidelines alongside a 'no safe level of drinking' message, and wider discourse misrepresenting the guidelines as rules, and highlighting apparent inconsistencies with standalone scientific papers and international guidelines.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

News media generally covered drinking guidelines in a neutral and accurate manner, but in-depth coverage was often negative and sought to discredit the guidelines using scientific and ethical arguments.

Functional connectivity of the world's protected areas

Global policies call for connecting protected areas (PAs) to conserve the flow of animals and genes across changing landscapes, yet whether global PA networks currently support animal movement-and where connectivity conservation is most critical-remain largely unknown. In this study, we map the functional connectivity of the world's terrestrial PAs and quantify national PA connectivity through the lens of moving mammals. We find that mitigating the human footprint may improve connectivity more than adding new PAs, although both strategies together maximize benefits. The most globally important areas of concentrated mammal movement remain unprotected, with 71% of these overlapping with global biodiversity priority areas and 6% occurring on land with moderate to high human modification. Conservation and restoration of critical connectivity areas could safeguard PA connectivity while supporting other global conservation priorities.

Improving outcomes for women aged 70 years or above with early breast cancer: research programme including a cluster RCT

Background

In breast cancer management, age-related practice variation is widespread, with older women having lower rates of surgery and chemotherapy than younger women, based on the premise of reduced treatment tolerance and benefit. This may contribute to inferior outcomes. There are currently no age- and fitness-stratified guidelines on which to base treatment recommendations.

Aim

We aimed to optimise treatment choice and outcomes for older women (aged ≥ 70 years) with operable breast cancer.

Objectives

Our objectives were to (1) determine the age, comorbidity, frailty, disease stage and biology thresholds for endocrine therapy alone versus surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy, or adjuvant chemotherapy versus no chemotherapy, for older women with breast cancer; (2) optimise survival outcomes for older women by improving the quality of treatment decision-making; (3) develop and evaluate a decision support intervention to enhance shared decision-making; and (4) determine the degree and causes of treatment variation between UK breast units.

Design

A prospective cohort study was used to determine age and fitness thresholds for treatment allocation. Mixed-methods research was used to determine the information needs of older women to develop a decision support intervention. A cluster-randomised trial was used to evaluate the impact of this decision support intervention on treatment choices and outcomes. Health economic analysis was used to evaluate the cost–benefit ratio of different treatment strategies according to age and fitness criteria. A mixed-methods study was used to determine the degree and causes of variation in treatment allocation.

Main outcome measures

The main outcome measures were enhanced age- and fitness-specific decision support leading to improved quality-of-life outcomes in older women (aged ≥ 70 years) with early breast cancer.

Results

(1) Cohort study: the study recruited 3416 UK women aged ≥ 70 years (median age 77 years). Follow-up was 52 months. (a) The surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy versus endocrine therapy alone comparison: 2854 out of 3416 (88%) women had oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer, 2354 of whom received surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy and 500 received endocrine therapy alone. Patients treated with endocrine therapy alone were older and frailer than patients treated with surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy. Unmatched overall survival and breast-cancer-specific survival were higher in the surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy group (overall survival: hazard ratio 0.27, 95% confidence interval 0.23 to 0.33; p < 0.001; breast-cancer-specific survival: hazard ratio 0.41, 95% confidence interval 0.29 to 0.58; p < 0.001) than in the endocrine therapy alone group. In matched analysis, surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy was still associated with better overall survival (hazard ratio 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.53 to 0.98; p = 0.04) than endocrine therapy alone, but not with better breast-cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.40 to 1.37; p = 0.34) or progression-free-survival (hazard ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 2.26; p = 0.78). (b) The adjuvant chemotherapy versus no chemotherapy comparison: 2811 out of 3416 (82%) women received surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy, of whom 1520 (54%) had high-recurrence-risk breast cancer [grade 3, node positive, oestrogen receptor negative or human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 positive, or a high Oncotype DX® (Genomic Health, Inc., Redwood City, CA, USA) score of > 25]. In this high-risk population, there were no differences according to adjuvant chemotherapy use in overall survival or breast-cancer-specific survival after propensity matching. Adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with a lower risk of metastatic recurrence than no chemotherapy in the unmatched (adjusted hazard ratio 0.36, 95% confidence interval 0.19 to 0.68; p = 0.002) and propensity-matched patients (adjusted hazard ratio 0.43, 95% confidence interval 0.20 to 0.92; p = 0.03). Adjuvant chemotherapy improved the overall survival and breast-cancer-specific survival of patients with oestrogen-receptor-negative disease. (2) Mixed-methods research to develop a decision support intervention: an iterative process was used to develop two decision support interventions (each comprising a brief decision aid, a booklet and an online tool) specifically for older women facing treatment choices (endocrine therapy alone or surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy, and adjuvant chemotherapy or no chemotherapy) using several evidence sources (expert opinion, literature and patient interviews). The online tool was based on models developed using registry data from 23,842 patients and validated on an external data set of 14,526 patients. Mortality rates at 2 and 5 years differed by < 1% between predicted and observed values. (3) Cluster-randomised clinical trial of decision support tools: 46 UK breast units were randomised (intervention, n = 21; usual care, n = 25), recruiting 1339 women (intervention, n = 670; usual care, n = 669). There was no significant difference in global quality of life at 6 months post baseline (difference –0.20, 95% confidence interval –2.7 to 2.3; p = 0.90). In women offered a choice of endocrine therapy alone or surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy, knowledge about treatments was greater in the intervention arm than the usual care arm (94% vs. 74%; p = 0.003). Treatment choice was altered, with higher rates of endocrine therapy alone than of surgery in the intervention arm. Similarly, chemotherapy rates were lower in the intervention arm (endocrine therapy alone rate: intervention sites 21% vs. usual-care sites 15%, difference 5.5%, 95% confidence interval 1.1% to 10.0%; p = 0.02; adjuvant chemotherapy rate: intervention sites 10% vs. usual-care site 15%, difference 4.5%, 95% confidence interval 0.0% to 8.0%; p = 0.013). Survival was similar in both arms. (4) Health economic analysis: a probabilistic economic model was developed using registry and cohort study data. For most health and fitness strata, surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy had lower costs and returned more quality-adjusted life-years than endocrine therapy alone. However, for some women aged > 90 years, surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy was no longer cost-effective and generated fewer quality-adjusted life-years than endocrine therapy alone. The incremental benefit of surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy reduced with age and comorbidities. (5) Variation in practice: analysis of rates of surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy or endocrine therapy alone between the 56 breast units in the cohort study demonstrated significant variation in rates of endocrine therapy alone that persisted after adjustment for age, fitness and stage. Clinician preference was an important determinant of treatment choice.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that, for older women with oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer, there is a cohort of women with a life expectancy of < 4 years for whom surgery plus adjuvant endocrine therapy may offer little benefit and simply have a negative impact on quality of life. The Age Gap decision tool may help make this shared decision. Similarly, although adjuvant chemotherapy offers little benefit and has a negative impact on quality of life for the majority of older women with oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer, for women with oestrogen-receptor-negative breast cancer, adjuvant chemotherapy is beneficial. The negative impacts of adjuvant chemotherapy on quality of life, although significant, are transient. This implies that, for the majority of fitter women aged ≥ 70 years, standard care should be offered.

Limitations

As with any observational study, despite detailed propensity score matching, residual bias cannot be excluded. Follow-up was at median 52 months for the cohort analysis. Longer-term follow-up will be required to validate these findings owing to the slow time course of oestrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer.

Future work

The online algorithm is now available (URL: https://agegap.shef.ac.uk/; accessed May 2022). There are plans to validate the tool and incorprate quality-of-life and 10-year survival outcomes.

Trial registration

This trial is registered as ISRCTN46099296.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 10, No. 6. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Understanding long-term trends in smoking in England, 1972-2019: an age-period-cohort approach

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Smoking prevalence has been falling in England for more than 50 years, but remains a prevalent and major public health problem. This study used an age-period-cohort (APC) approach to measure lifecycle, historical and generational patterns of individual smoking behaviour.

DESIGN

APC analysis of repeated cross-sectional smoking prevalence data obtained from three nationally representative surveys.

SETTING

England (1972-2019).

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals aged 18-90 years.

MEASUREMENTS

We studied relative odds of current smoking in relation to age in single years from 18 to 90, 24 groups of 2-year survey periods (1972-73 to 2018-19) and 20 groups of 5-year birth cohorts (1907-11 to 1997-2001). Age and period rates were studied for two groups of birth cohorts: those aged 18-25 years and those aged over 25 years.

FINDINGS

Relative to age 18, the odds of current smoking increased with age until approximately age 25 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.41-1.56] and then decreased progressively to age 90 (OR = 0.06, 95% CI = 0.04-0.08). They also decreased almost linearly with period relative to 1972-73 (for 2018-19: OR = 0.30, 95% CI = 0.26-0.34) and with birth cohort relative to 1902-06, with the largest decreased observed for birth cohort 1992-96 (OR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.35-0.46) and 1997-2001 (OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.74-0.88). Smoking declined in the 18-25 age group by an average of 7% over successive 2-year periods and by an average of 5% in those aged over 25.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking in England appears to have declined over recent decades mainly as a result of reduced smoking uptake before age 25, and to a lesser extent to smoking cessation after age 25.

Covid-19 Epidemic Impact on Clinical Training in Irish GP Training

Aim To describe the effect of the Covid pandemic on the general practice workplace based learning of GP training in Ireland. Methods A prospective national survey of GP trainees who were in their GP practice placements on three separate occasions throughout the winter pandemic of 2020/2021 Results The average response rate to the three surveys was 19.4%. As the pandemic worsened, the number of face to face consultations dropped so that 51% (n=41) of trainees were seeing less than 5 patients face to face by the third survey. Conversely, the number of telephone/video consultations rose so that by the third survey 54% (n=44) of trainees were conducting more than 16 consultations per day remotely. Examinations and GP presentations expected to be daily occurrences diminished as the pandemic grew more severe, such that by the third survey 24-25% of trainees had not conducted a respiratory examination or dealt with new/unexpected hypertension in the previous month. Conclusion This study demonstrates abrupt change to the normal course of their training which was experienced by Irish GP trainees as a result of Covid, with examples from clinical practice. Adaptions of the training programme helped mitigate against the effects of the pandemic.

Acceptability and feasibility of an acceptance and commitment therapy-based guided self-help intervention for weight loss maintenance in adults who have previously completed a behavioural weight loss programme: the SWiM feasibility study protocol

INTRODUCTION

The cost-effectiveness and long-term health impact of behavioural weight management programmes depends on post-treatment weight-loss maintenance. Growing evidence suggests that interventions using acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) could improve long-term weight management. We developed an ACT-based, guided self-help intervention to support adults who have recently completed a behavioural weight loss programme. This study will assess the feasibility and acceptability of this type of intervention and findings will inform the development of a full-scale trial.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a pragmatic, randomised, single-blind, parallel group, two-arm, feasibility study with an embedded process evaluation. We will recruit and randomise 60 adults who have recently completed a behavioural weight loss programme to the ACT-based intervention or standard care, using a computer-generated sequence with 2:1 allocation stratified by diabetes status and sex. Baseline and 6-month measurements will be completed using online questionnaires. Qualitative interviews will be conducted with a subsample of participants and coaches about their experiences at 3 (mid-intervention) and 6 (postintervention) months. Feasibility and acceptability of the intervention, and a full-scale trial will be assessed using a number of outcomes, including adherence to, and engagement with the intervention, recruitment and retention rates, proportion of missing data for each outcome measure, participants' experiences of the intervention and study, and coaches' experiences of delivering intervention support. Quantitative and qualitative findings will be integrated and summarised to contribute to the interpretation of the main feasibility evaluation findings. Value of information methods will be used to estimate the decision uncertainty associated with the intervention's cost-effectiveness and determine the value of a definitive trial.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was received from Cambridge South Research Ethics Committee on 15/03/2021 (21/EE/0024). This protocol (V.2) was approved on 19 April 2021. Findings will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals and communicated to other stakeholders as appropriate.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN12685964.

Using health economic modelling to inform the design and development of an intervention: estimating the justifiable cost of weight loss maintenance in the UK

BACKGROUND

There is a need to develop cost-effective weight loss maintenance interventions to prolong the positive impact of weight loss on health outcomes. Conducting pre-trial health economic modelling is recommended to inform the design and development of behavioural interventions. We aimed to use health economic modelling to estimate the maximum cost per-person (justifiable cost) of a cost-effective behavioural weight loss maintenance intervention, given an estimated intervention effect for individuals with: i) a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 28 kg/m2 or above without diabetes and ii) a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes prescribed a single non-insulin diabetes medication.

METHODS

The School for Public Health Research Diabetes prevention model was used to estimate the lifetime Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains, healthcare costs, and maximum justifiable cost associated with a weight loss maintenance intervention. Based on a meta-analysis, the estimated effect of a weight loss maintenance intervention following a 9 kg weight loss, was a regain of 1.33 kg and 4.38 kg in years one and two respectively compared to greater regain of 2.84 kg and 5.6 kg in the control group. Sensitivity analysis was conducted around the rate of regain, duration of effect and initial weight loss.

RESULTS

The justifiable cost for a weight loss maintenance intervention at an ICER of £20,000 per QALY was £104.64 for an individual with a BMI of 28 or over and £88.14 for an individual with type 2 diabetes. Within sensitivity analysis, this varied from £36.42 to £203.77 for the former, and between £29.98 and £173.05 for the latter.

CONCLUSIONS

Researchers developing a weight loss maintenance intervention should consider these maximum justifiable cost estimates and the potential impact of the duration of effect and initial weight loss when designing intervention content and deciding target populations. Future research should consider using the methods demonstrated in this study to use health economic modelling to inform the design and budgetary decisions in the development of a behavioural interventions.

Investigating the day-to-day impact of hypoglycaemia in adults with type 1 or type 2 diabetes: design and validation protocol of the Hypo-METRICS application

INTRODUCTION

Hypoglycaemia is a frequent adverse event and major barrier for achieving optimal blood glucose levels in people with type 1 or type 2 diabetes using insulin. The Hypo-RESOLVE (Hypoglycaemia-Redefining SOLutions for better liVEs) consortium aims to further our understanding of the day-to-day impact of hypoglycaemia. The Hypo-METRICS (Hypoglycaemia-MEasurement, ThResholds and ImpaCtS) application (app) is a novel app for smartphones. This app is developed as part of the Hypo-RESOLVE project, using ecological momentary assessment methods that will minimise recall bias and allow for robust investigation of the day-to-day impact of hypoglycaemia. In this paper, the development and planned psychometric analyses of the app are described.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The three phases of development of the Hypo-METRICS app are: (1) establish a working group-comprising diabetologists, psychologists and people with diabetes-to define the problem and identify relevant areas of daily functioning; (2) develop app items, with user-testing, and implement into the app platform; and (3) plan a large-scale, multicountry study including interviews with users and psychometric validation. The app includes 7 modules (29 unique items) assessing: self-report of hypoglycaemic episodes (during the day and night, respectively), sleep quality, well-being/cognitive function, social interactions, fear of hypoglycaemia/hyperglycaemia and work/productivity. The app is designed for use within three fixed time intervals per day (morning, afternoon and evening). The first version was released mid-2020 for use (in conjunction with continuous glucose monitoring and activity tracking) in the Hypo-METRICS study; an international observational longitudinal study. As part of this study, semistructured user-experience interviews and psychometric analyses will be conducted.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Use of the novel Hypo-METRICS app in a multicountry clinical study has received ethical approval in each of the five countries involved (Oxford B Research Ethics Committee, CMO Region Arnhem-Nijmegen, Ethikkommission der Medizinischen Universität Graz, Videnskabsetisk Komite for Region Hovedstaden and the Comite Die Protection Des Personnes SUD Mediterranne IV). The results from the study will be published in peer review journals and presented at national and international conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04304963.

Behavioural interventions to promote physical activity in a multiethnic population at high risk of diabetes: PROPELS three-arm RCT

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes is a leading cause of mortality globally and accounts for significant health resource expenditure. Increased physical activity can reduce the risk of diabetes. However, the longer-term clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of physical activity interventions in those at high risk of type 2 diabetes is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether or not Walking Away from Diabetes (Walking Away) - a low-resource, 3-hour group-based behavioural intervention designed to promote physical activity through pedometer use in those with prediabetes - leads to sustained increases in physical activity when delivered with and without an integrated mobile health intervention compared with control.

DESIGN

Three-arm, parallel-group, pragmatic, superiority randomised controlled trial with follow-up conducted at 12 and 48 months.

SETTING

Primary care and the community.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults whose primary care record included a prediabetic blood glucose measurement recorded within the past 5 years [HbA_1c ≥ 42 mmol/mol (6.0%), < 48 mmol/mol (6.5%) mmol/mol; fasting glucose ≥ 5.5 mmol/l, < 7.0 mmol/l; or 2-hour post-challenge glucose ≥ 7.8 mmol/l, < 11.1 mmol/l] were recruited between December 2013 and February 2015. Data collection was completed in July 2019.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomised (1 : 1 : 1) using a web-based tool to (1) control (information leaflet), (2) Walking Away with annual group-based support or (3) Walking Away Plus (comprising Walking Away, annual group-based support and a mobile health intervention that provided automated, individually tailored text messages to prompt pedometer use and goal-setting and provide feedback, in addition to biannual telephone calls). Participants and data collectors were not blinded; however, the staff who processed the accelerometer data were blinded to allocation.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was accelerometer-measured ambulatory activity (steps per day) at 48 months. Other objective and self-reported measures of physical activity were also assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 1366 individuals were randomised (median age 61 years, median body mass index 28.4 kg/m², median ambulatory activity 6638 steps per day, women 49%, black and minority ethnicity 28%). Accelerometer data were available for 1017 (74%) and 993 (73%) individuals at 12 and 48 months, respectively. The primary outcome assessment at 48 months found no differences in ambulatory activity compared with control in either group (Walking Away Plus: 121 steps per day, 97.5% confidence interval -290 to 532 steps per day; Walking Away: 91 steps per day, 97.5% confidence interval -282 to 463). This was consistent across ethnic groups. At the intermediate 12-month assessment, the Walking Away Plus group had increased their ambulatory activity by 547 (97.5% confidence interval 211 to 882) steps per day compared with control and were 1.61 (97.5% confidence interval 1.05 to 2.45) times more likely to achieve 150 minutes per week of objectively assessed unbouted moderate to vigorous physical activity. In the Walking Away group, there were no differences compared with control at 12 months. Secondary anthropometric, biomechanical and mental health outcomes were unaltered in either intervention study arm compared with control at 12 or 48 months, with the exception of small, but sustained, reductions in body weight in the Walking Away study arm (≈ 1 kg) at the 12- and 48-month follow-ups. Lifetime cost-effectiveness modelling suggested that usual care had the highest probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Of 50 serious adverse events, only one (myocardial infarction) was deemed possibly related to the intervention and led to the withdrawal of the participant from the study.

LIMITATIONS

Loss to follow-up, although the results were unaltered when missing data were replaced using multiple imputation.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining a physical activity intervention with text messaging and telephone support resulted in modest, but clinically meaningful, changes in physical activity at 12 months, but the changes were not sustained at 48 months.

FUTURE WORK

Future research is needed to investigate which intervention types, components and features can help to maintain physical activity behaviour change over the longer term.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN83465245.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 77. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Development of a Web-Based, Guided Self-help, Acceptance and Commitment Therapy-Based Intervention for Weight Loss Maintenance: Evidence-, Theory-, and Person-Based Approach

Background

The long-term impact and cost-effectiveness of weight management programs depend on posttreatment weight maintenance. There is growing evidence that interventions based on third-wave cognitive behavioral therapy, particularly acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT), could improve long-term weight management; however, these interventions are typically delivered face-to-face by psychologists, which limits the scalability of these types of intervention.

Objective

The aim of this study is to use an evidence-, theory-, and person-based approach to develop an ACT-based intervention for weight loss maintenance that uses digital technology and nonspecialist guidance to minimize the resources needed for delivery at scale.

Methods

Intervention development was guided by the Medical Research Council framework for the development of complex interventions in health care, Intervention Mapping Protocol, and a person-based approach for enhancing the acceptability and feasibility of interventions. Work was conducted in two phases: phase 1 consisted of collating and analyzing existing and new primary evidence and phase 2 consisted of theoretical modeling and intervention development. Phase 1 included a synthesis of existing evidence on weight loss maintenance from previous research, a systematic review and network meta-analysis of third-wave cognitive behavioral therapy interventions for weight management, a qualitative interview study of experiences of weight loss maintenance, and the modeling of a justifiable cost for a weight loss maintenance program. Phase 2 included the iterative development of guiding principles, a logic model, and the intervention design and content. Target user and stakeholder panels were established to inform each phase of development, and user testing of successive iterations of the prototype intervention was conducted.

Results

This process resulted in a guided self-help ACT-based intervention called SWiM (Supporting Weight Management). SWiM is a 4-month program consisting of weekly web-based sessions for 13 consecutive weeks followed by a 4-week break for participants to reflect and practice their new skills and a final session at week 18. Each session consists of psychoeducational content, reflective exercises, and behavioral experiments. SWiM includes specific sessions on key determinants of weight loss maintenance, including developing skills to manage high-risk situations for lapses, creating new helpful habits, breaking old unhelpful habits, and learning to manage interpersonal relationships and their impact on weight management. A trained, nonspecialist coach provides guidance for the participants through the program with 4 scheduled 30-minute telephone calls and 3 further optional calls.

Conclusions

This comprehensive approach facilitated the development of an intervention that is based on scientific theory and evidence for supporting people with weight loss maintenance and is grounded in the experiences of the target users and the context in which it is intended to be delivered. The intervention will be refined based on the findings of a planned pilot randomized controlled trial.

Estimating the impact of changes in weight and BMI on EQ-5D-3L: a longitudinal analysis of a behavioural group-based weight loss intervention

PURPOSE

To estimate the association between changes in BMI and changes in Health-Related Quality of Life (EQ-5D-3L).

METHODS

The WRAP trial was a multicentre, randomised controlled trial with parallel design and recruited 1267 adults (BMI ≥ 28 kg/m²). Participants were allocated to Brief Intervention, a Commercial weight management Programme (WW, formerly Weight Watchers) for 12 weeks, or the same Programme for 52 weeks. Participants were assessed at 0, 3, 12, 24, and 60 months. We analysed the relationship between BMI and EQ-5D-3L, adjusting for age and comorbidities, using a fixed effects model. Test for attrition, model specification and missing data were conducted. Secondary analyses investigated a non-symmetric gradient for weight loss vs. regain.

RESULTS

A unit increase in BMI was associated with a - 0.011 (95% CI - 0.01546, - 0.00877) change in EQ-5D-3L. A unit change in BMI between periods of observation was associated with - 0.016 017 (95% CI - 0.0077009, - 0.025086) change in EQ-5D-3L. The negative association was reduced during weight loss, as opposed to weight gain, but the difference was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

We have identified a strong and statistically significant negative relationship between BMI changes and HRQoL. These estimates could be used in economic evaluations of weight loss interventions to inform policymaking.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial was registered with Current Controlled Trials, number ISRCTN82857232.

Improved estimates for individual and population-level alcohol use in the United States, 1984-2020

Aims

While nationally representative alcohol surveys are a mainstay of public health monitoring, they underestimate consumption at the population level. This paper demonstrates how to adjust individual-level survey data using aggregated alcohol per capita (APC) data for improved individual- and population-level consumption estimates.

Design and Methods

For the period 1984-2020, data on self-reported alcohol consumption in the past 30 days were taken from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) involving participants (18+ years) in the United States (US). Monthly abstainers were reallocated into lifetime abstainers, former drinkers, and 12-month drinkers using the 2005 National Alcohol Survey data. To correct for under-coverage of alcohol use, we triangulated APC and survey data by upshifting quantity (average grams/day) and frequency (drinking days/week) of alcohol use based on national- and state-level APC data. Results were provided for the US as a whole and for selected states to represent different drinking patterns.

Findings

The corrections described above resulted in improved correspondence between survey and APC data. Following our procedure, national estimates of alcohol quantity increased from 45% to 77% of APC estimates. Both quantity and frequency of alcohol use were upshifted; by upshifting to 90% of APC, we were able to fit trends and distributions in APC patterns for individual states and the US.

Conclusions

An individual-level dataset which more accurately reflects the alcohol use of US citizens was achieved. This dataset will be invaluable as a research tool and for the planning and evaluation of alcohol control policies for the US. The methodology described can also be used to adjust individual-level alcohol survey data in other geographical settings.

An integrated dual process simulation model of alcohol use behaviours in individuals, with application to US population-level consumption, 1984-2012

INTRODUCTION

The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) describes how attitudes, norms and perceived behavioural control guide health behaviour, including alcohol consumption. Dual Process Theories (DPT) suggest that alongside these reasoned pathways, behaviour is influenced by automatic processes that are determined by the frequency of engagement in the health behaviour in the past. We present a computational model integrating TPB and DPT to determine drinking decisions for simulated individuals. We explore whether this model can reproduce historical patterns in US population alcohol use and simulate a hypothetical scenario, "Dry January", to demonstrate the utility of the model for appraising the impact of policy interventions on population alcohol use.

METHOD

Constructs from the TPB pathway were computed using equations from an existing individual-level dynamic simulation model of alcohol use. The DPT pathway was initialised by simulating individuals' past drinking using data from a large US survey. Individuals in the model were from a US population microsimulation that accounts for births, deaths and migration (1984-2015). On each modelled day, for each individual, we calculated standard drinks consumed using the TPB or DPT pathway. In each year we computed total population alcohol use prevalence, frequency and quantity. The model was calibrated to alcohol use data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (1984-2004).

RESULTS

The model was a good fit to prevalence and frequency but a poorer fit to quantity of alcohol consumption, particularly in males. Simulating Dry January in each year led to a small to moderate reduction in annual population drinking.

CONCLUSION

This study provides further evidence, at the whole population level, that a combination of reasoned and implicit processes are important for alcohol use. Alcohol misuse interventions should target both processes. The integrated TPB-DPT simulation model is a useful tool for estimating changes in alcohol consumption following hypothetical population interventions.

Clinical risk prediction model for 30-day all-cause re-hospitalisation or mortality in patients hospitalised with heart failure

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model (AUS-HF model) for 30-day all-cause re-hospitalisation or death among patients admitted with acute heart failure (HF) to inform follow-up after hospitalisation. The model uses routinely collected measures at point of care.

METHODS

We analyzed pooled individual-level data from two cohort studies on acute HF patients followed for 30-days after discharge in 17 hospitals in Victoria, Australia (2014-2017). A set of 58 candidate predictors, commonly recorded in electronic medical records (EMR) including demographic, medical and social measures were considered. We used backward stepwise selection and LASSO for model development, bootstrap for internal validation, C-statistic for discrimination, and calibration slopes and plots for model calibration.

RESULTS

The analysis included 1380 patients, 42.1% female, median age 78.7 years (interquartile range = 16.2), 60.0% experienced previous hospitalisation for HF and 333 (24.1%) were re-hospitalised or died within 30 days post-discharge. The final risk model included 10 variables (admission: eGFR, and prescription of anticoagulants and thiazide diuretics; discharge: length of stay>3 days, systolic BP, heart rate, sodium level (<135 mmol/L), >10 prescribed medications, prescription of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers, and anticoagulants prescription. The discrimination of the model was moderate (C-statistic = 0.684, 95%CI 0.653, 0.716; optimism estimate = 0.062) with good calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The AUS-HF model incorporating routinely collected point-of-care data from EMRs enables real-time risk estimation and can be easily implemented by clinicians. It can predict with moderate accuracy risk of 30-day hospitalisation or mortality and inform decisions around the intensity of follow-up after hospital discharge.

Expected Value of Sample Information to Guide the Design of Group Sequential Clinical Trials

Introduction

Adaptive designs allow changes to an ongoing trial based on prespecified early examinations of accrued data. Opportunities are potentially being missed to incorporate health economic considerations into the design of these studies.

Methods

We describe how to estimate the expected value of sample information for group sequential design adaptive trials. We operationalize this approach in a hypothetical case study using data from a pilot trial. We report the expected value of sample information and expected net benefit of sampling results for 5 design options for the future full-scale trial including the fixed-sample-size design and the group sequential design using either the Pocock stopping rule or the O’Brien-Fleming stopping rule with 2 or 5 analyses. We considered 2 scenarios relating to 1) using the cost-effectiveness model with a traditional approach to the health economic analysis and 2) adjusting the cost-effectiveness analysis to incorporate the bias-adjusted maximum likelihood estimates of trial outcomes to account for the bias that can be generated in adaptive trials.

Results

The case study demonstrated that the methods developed could be successfully applied in practice. The results showed that the O’Brien-Fleming stopping rule with 2 analyses was the most efficient design with the highest expected net benefit of sampling in the case study.

Conclusions

Cost-effectiveness considerations are unavoidable in budget-constrained, publicly funded health care systems, and adaptive designs can provide an alternative to costly fixed-sample-size designs. We recommend that when planning a clinical trial, expected value of sample information methods be used to compare possible adaptive and nonadaptive trial designs, with appropriate adjustment, to help justify the choice of design characteristics and ensure the cost-effective use of research funding.

Highlights

Quantile regression of tobacco tax pass-through in the UK 2013-2019. How have manufacturers passed through tax changes for different tobacco products?

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of tax increases relies heavily on the tobacco industry passing on such increases to smokers (also referred to as 'pass-through'). Previous research has found heterogeneous levels of tax pass-through across the market segments of tobacco products available to smokers. This study uses retail sales data to assess the extent to which recent tax changes have been passed on to smokers and whether this varies across the price distribution.

METHODS

We use panel data quantile regression analysis on Nielsen commercial data of tobacco price and sales in the UK from January 2013 to March 2019 combined with official UK tax rates and inflation to calculate the rate of tax pass-through for factory made (FM) cigarettes and roll your own (RYO) tobacco.

RESULTS

Following increases in the specific tax payable on tobacco, we find evidence of overshifting across the price distribution for both FM and RYO. The rate of the overshift in tax increased the more expensive the products were. This was consistent for FM and RYO. Additionally, our findings suggest that the introduction of standardised packaging was not followed by changes in how the tobacco industry responded to tax increases.

CONCLUSIONS

Following the repeated introduction of increases in specific tobacco tax as well as standardised packaging, we show that the tobacco industry applies techniques to keep the cheapest tobacco cheaper relative to the more expensive products when passing on tax increases to smokers.

Outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with prior coronary artery bypass grafting (cabg)

Background

In patients with prior CABG requiring subsequent PCI there is uncertainty whether bypass grafts or native coronary arteries should be targeted.

Methods

We analysed data from 2,764 patients with prior CABG in the Melbourne Interventional Group registry (2005–2018), divided into two groups: those undergoing PCI to a native vessel (n=1,928) and those with PCI to a graft vessel (n=836).

Results

Patients with a graft vessel PCI were older, had more high-risk clinical characteristics (prior MI, heart failure, ejection fraction &lt;50%, renal impairment, peripheral and cerebrovascular disease), and high-risk procedural features (ACC/AHA types B2/C lesions). However, patients in the native vessel group were more likely to have PCI to a chronic total occlusion. The majority of graft PCI were to saphenous vein grafts (84%), with 10% to radial and 6% to LIMA/RIMA grafts. Distal embolic protection devices were used in 30% of graft PCI. Patients with graft PCI had higher rates of no reflow (6.3% vs. 1.5%; p&lt;0.001), coronary perforation (p=0.016) and inpatient stent thrombosis (p=0.028). However, 30-day mortality and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) were similar. Unadjusted long-term mortality (median follow up 4.8 years) was higher in patients who had undergone a graft PCI (44% vs. 32%, p&lt;0.001), but following Cox proportional hazards modelling, PCI vessel type was not a predictor of long-term mortality (HR 1.13; 95% CI 0.96–1.33, p=0.14).

Conclusions

Early clinical outcomes and risk-adjusted long-term mortality are similar for patients with prior CABG undergoing PCI to a native vessel or a bypass graft.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): The Alfred Hospital

Sex differences in pre-hospital analgesia and outcomes in patients presenting with acute coronary syndromes

Background

Opioid analgesia remains the mainstay of pain management in acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Significant sex differences persist in ACS presentation, management and outcomes, but the impact of sex-differences on pre-hospital pain management of ACS with opioids is unknown. There is increasing awareness of the importance of pre-hospital factors in ACS, as well as emerging concerns with opioid use impairing the gastrointestinal absorption of oral P2Y12 inhibitors.

Purpose

This study examined if sex-differences in pre-hospital pain scores, opioid administration and clinical outcomes exist in ACS patients.

Methods

Patients presenting with ACS via ambulance (2014–2018) that underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) were prospectively collected via the Victorian Cardiac Outcomes Registry (VCOR), the Melbourne Interventional Group (MIG), and linked to the Ambulance Victoria database. The primary outcome was 30-day major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Secondary outcomes were descriptive analyses of pre-hospital pain score, intravenous morphine equivalent analgesic dosing, plus predictors of MACE and Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) 0–1 flow pre-PCI using logistic regression.

Results

10,547 patients were included (female: 2,775 [26.3%]). Opioids were administered to 1,585 (57%) females and 5,068 (65%) males (p&lt;0.001). Adjusted 30-day MACE was similar between opioid groups in both sexes (female: OR 1.21, CI 0.82–1.79, p=0.34; male: OR 0.89, 0.68–1.16, p=0.40). Median pain score at presentation was 6 (IQR 4,8) for both sexes. Median opioid dose was 2.5 mg (IQR 0,10) in females and 5 mg (IQR 0,10) in males (p&lt;0.001), with similar pain relief achieved. Adjusted rates of TIMI 0–1 pre-PCI were higher in patients administered opioids (female: OR 2.83, CI 2.14–3.56, p&lt;0.001; male: OR 2.95, CI 2.49–3.49, p&lt;0.001).

Conclusions

Female patients undergoing PCI received less opioid analgesia, but no sex-differences in pre-hospital pain scores were seen. Opioid administration was associated with impaired antegrade flow in the culprit artery in both sexes, but not short-term MACE. Randomised trials evaluating the clinical implications of opioid administration in ACS with sex subgroup analyses are needed to guide clinical practice.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): Melbourne Interventional GroupVictorian Cardiac Outcomes Registry

Trends in intra-aortic balloon pump use in cardiogenic shock in the post-SHOCK II trial era

Background

Myocardial infarction complicated by cardiogenic shock (MI-CS) has a poor prognosis, even with early revascularisation. Previously, intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) use was thought to improve outcomes, but the SHOCK-II trial in 2012 found no survival benefit.

Purpose

This study aimed to determine the trends in IABP use in patients with MI-CS undergoing percutaneous intervention (PCI) over time and characteristics associated with use.

Methods

Between 2005–2018, patients presenting with MI-CS that underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) at a hospital participating in the Melbourne Interventional Group Registry were included. The primary outcome was the trend in IABP use over time. Secondary outcomes included mortality, 30-day MACCE (major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events) and predictors of outcome, determined via logistic regression.

Results

Of the 1,110 patients identified, IABP was used in 478 (43%). IABP was used more in patients with left main and left anterior descending culprit lesions (62% vs. 46%), lower ejection fraction (&lt;35%; 18% vs. 11%), and pre-procedural inotrope use (81% vs. 73%), all p&lt;0.05. IABP use was associated with higher inpatient bleeding (18% vs. 13%) and 30-day MACCE (58% vs. 51%), both p&lt;0.05. The rate of MI-CS increased over time, but after 2012 there was a decline in IABP use (Figure 1). IABP use was a predictor of 30-day MACCE (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.18–2.29, p=0.003). However, IABP was not associated with in-hospital, 30-day or long-term mortality (45% vs. 47%, p=0.44; 46% vs. 50%, p=0.25; 60% vs. 62%, p=0.39).

Conclusions

Consistent with the SHOCK II trial, IABP use is not associated with reduced short- or long-term mortality, but in this study was associated with increased short-term adverse events. IABP use is declining, but is still used in sicker patients with greater myocardium at risk, given limited alternatives.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): Melbourne interventional group

Commentary on Robinson et al. (2021): Evaluating theories of change for public health policies using computer model discovery methods

Recent developments in computer modelling—known as model discovery—could help to confirm the mechanisms underpinning Robinson and colleagues’ important early findings for the effectiveness of minimum unit pricing, and to test the complete theory of change underpinning this crucial evaluation.