Evaluation and calibration of SAPS 3 in patients with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care units

Association between emergency department disposition and mortality in patients with COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome

Objectives

Patients hospitalized for COVID-19 frequently develop hypoxemia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) after admission. In non-COVID-19 ARDS studies, admission to hospital wards with subsequent transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) is associated with worse outcomes. We hypothesized that initial admission to the ward may affect outcomes in patient with COVID-19 ARDS.

Methods

This was a retrospective study of consecutive adults admitted for COVID-19 ARDS between March 2020 and March 2021 at Stanford Health Care. Mortality scores at hospital admission (Coronavirus Clinical Characterization Consortium Mortality Score [4C score]) and ICU admission (Simplified Acute Physiology Score III [SAPS-III]) were calculated, as well as ROX index for patients on high flow nasal oxygen. Patients were classified by emergency department (ED) disposition (ward-first vs. ICU-direct), and 28- and 60-day mortality and highest level of respiratory support within 1 day of ICU admission were compared. A second cohort (April 2021‒July 2022, n = 129) was phenotyped to validate mortality outcome.

Results

A total of 157 patients were included, 48% of whom were first admitted to the ward (n = 75). Ward-first patients had more comorbidities, including lung disease. Ward-first patients had lower 4C and similar SAPS-III score, yet increased mortality at 28 days (32% vs. 17%, hazard ratio [HR] 2.0, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.0‒3.7, p = 0.039) and 60 days (39% vs. 23%, HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.04‒3.22, p = 0.037) compared to ICU-direct patients. More ward-first patients escalated to mechanical ventilation on day 1 of ICU admission (36% vs. 14%, p = 0.002) despite similar ROX index. Ward-first patients who upgraded to ICU within 48 h of ED presentation had the highest mortality. Mortality findings were replicated in a sensitivity analysis.

Conclusion

Despite similar baseline risk scores, ward-first patients with COVID-19 ARDS had increased mortality and escalation to mechanical ventilation compared to ICU-direct patients. Ward-first patients requiring ICU upgrade within 48 h were at highest risk, highlighting a need for improved identification of this group at ED admission.

AB2CO risk score for in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units

PURPOSE

To develop a mortality risk score for COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU), and to compare it with other existing scores.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective observational study included consecutive adult patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICUs of 18 hospitals from nine Brazilian cities, from September 2021 to July 2022. Potential predictors were selected based on the literature review. Generalized Additive Models were used to examine outcomes and predictors. LASSO regression was used to derive the mortality score.

RESULTS

From 558 patients, median age was 69 years (IQR 58-78), 56.3 % were men, 19.7 % required mechanical ventilation (MV), and 44.8 % died. The final model comprised six variables: age, pO2/FiO2, respiratory function (respiratory rate or if in MV), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and obesity. The AB2CO had an AUROC of 0.781 (95 % CI 0.744 to 0.819), good overall performance (Brier score = 0.191) and an excellent calibration (slope = 1.063, intercept = 0.015, p-value = 0.834). The model was compared with other scores and displayed better discrimination ability than the majority of them.

CONCLUSIONS

The AB2CO score is a fast and easy tool to be used upon ICU admission.

Comparison between high-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO) alternated with non-invasive ventilation (NIV) and HFNO and NIV alone in patients with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Non-invasive respiratory support (conventional oxygen therapy [COT], non-invasive ventilation [NIV], high-flow nasal oxygen [HFNO], and NIV alternated with HFNO [NIV + HFNO] may reduce the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) in patients with COVID-19. The outcome of patients treated non-invasively depends on clinical severity at admission. We assessed the need for IMV according to NIV, HFNO, and NIV + HFNO in patients with COVID-19 according to disease severity and evaluated in-hospital survival rates and hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) lengths of stay.

METHODS

This cohort study was conducted using data collected between March 2020 and July 2021. Patients ≥ 18 years admitted to the ICU with a diagnosis of COVID-19 were included. Patients hospitalized for < 3 days, receiving therapy (COT, NIV, HFNO, or NIV + HFNO) for < 48 h, pregnant, and with no primary outcome data were excluded. The COT group was used as reference for multivariate Cox regression model adjustment.

RESULTS

Of 1371 patients screened, 958 were eligible: 692 (72.2%) on COT, 92 (9.6%) on NIV, 31 (3.2%) on HFNO, and 143 (14.9%) on NIV + HFNO. The results for the patients in each group were as follows: median age (interquartile range): NIV (64 [49-79] years), HFNO (62 [55-70] years), NIV + HFNO (62 [48-72] years) (p = 0.615); heart failure: NIV (54.5%), HFNO (36.3%), NIV + HFNO (9%) (p = 0.003); diabetes mellitus: HFNO (17.6%), NIV + HFNO (44.7%) (p = 0.048). > 50% lung damage on chest computed tomography (CT): NIV (13.3%), HFNO (15%), NIV + HFNO (71.6%) (p = 0.038); SpO2/FiO2: NIV (271 [118-365] mmHg), HFNO (317 [254-420] mmHg), NIV + HFNO (229 [102-317] mmHg) (p = 0.001); rate of IMV: NIV (26.1%, p = 0.002), HFNO (22.6%, p = 0.023), NIV + HFNO (46.8%); survival rate: HFNO (83.9%), NIV + HFNO (63.6%) (p = 0.027); ICU length of stay: NIV (8.5 [5-14] days), NIV + HFNO (15 [10-25] days (p < 0.001); hospital length of stay: NIV (13 [10-21] days), NIV + HFNO (20 [15-30] days) (p < 0.001). After adjusting for comorbidities, chest CT score and SpO2/FiO2, the risk of IMV in patients on NIV + HFNO remained high (hazard ratio, 1.88; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-3.04).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with COVID-19, NIV alternating with HFNO was associated with a higher rate of IMV independent of the presence of comorbidities, chest CT score and SpO2/FiO2. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT05579080.

ELMO CPAP: an innovative type of ventilatory support for COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether the use of ELMO, a helmet for noninvasive ventilation created in Brazil, had a positive impact on the prognosis of patients with hypoxemic respiratory failure caused by severe COVID-19.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study of 50 critically ill COVID-19 patients. Epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory data were collected on ICU admission, as well as before, during, and after ELMO use. Patients were divided into two groups (success and failure) according to the outcome.

RESULTS

ELMO use improved oxygenation parameters such as Pao2, Fio2, and the Pao2/Fio2 ratio, and this contributed to a gradual reduction in Fio2, without an increase in CO2, as determined by arterial blood gas analysis. Patients in the success group had significantly longer survival (p < 0.001), as determined by the Kaplan-Meier analysis, less need for intubation (p < 0.001), fewer days of hospitalization, and a lower incidence of acute kidney injury in comparison with those in the failure group.

CONCLUSIONS

The significant improvement in oxygenation parameters, the longer survival, as reflected by the reduced need for intubation and by the mortality rate, and the absence of acute kidney injury suggest that the ELMO CPAP system is a promising tool for treating ARDS and similar clinical conditions.

Prior physical illness predicts death better than acute physiological derangement on intensive care unit admission in COVID-19: A Swedish registry study

COVID-19 is associated with prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay and considerable mortality. The onset of persistent critical illness, defined as when prior illness predicts death better than acute physiological derangement, has not been studied in COVID-19. This national cohort study based on the Swedish Intensive Care Registry (SIR) included all patients admitted to a Swedish ICU due to COVID-19 from 6 March 2020 to 9 November 2021. Simplified Acute Physiology Score-3 (SAPS3) Box 1 was used as a measure of prior illness and Box 3 as a measure of acute derangement to evaluate the onset and importance of persistent critical illness in COVID-19. To compare predictive capacity, the area under receiver operating characteristic (AUC) of SAPS3 and its constituent Box 1 and 3 was calculated for 30-day mortality. In 7 969 patients, of which 1 878 (23.6%) died within 30 days of ICU admission, the complete SAPS3 score had acceptable discrimination: AUC 0.75 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.76) but showed under prediction in low-risk patients and over prediction in high-risk patients. SAPS3 Box 1 showed markedly better discrimination than Box 3 (AUC 0.74 vs 0.65, P<0,0001). Using custom logistic models, the difference in predictive performance of prior and acute illness was validated, AUC 0.76 vs AUC 0.69, p<0.0001. Prior physical illness predicts death in COVID-19 better than acute physiological derangement during ICU stay, and the whole SAPS3 score is not significantly better than just prior illness. The results suggests that COVID-19 may exhibit similarities to persistent critical illness immediately from ICU admission, potentially because of long median ICU length-of-stay. Alternatively, the variables in the acute physiological derangement model may not adequately capture the severity of illness in COVID-19.

Relationship between clinical-epidemiological parameters and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit: a report from a Brazilian hospital

Background

People in low-income countries, especially those with low socio-economic conditions, are likelier to test positive for SARS-CoV-2. The unequal conditions of public health systems also increase the infection rate and make early identification and treatment of at-risk patients difficult. Here, we aimed to characterize the epidemiological profile of COVID-19 patients in intensive care and identify laboratory and clinical markers associated with death.

Materials and methods

We conducted an observational, descriptive, and cross-sectional study in a reference hospital for COVID-19 treatment in the Southern Region of Bahia State, in Brazil, to evaluate the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory characteristics of COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Additionally, we used the area under the curve (AUC) to classify survivors and non-survivors and a multivariate logistic regression analysis to assess factors associated with death. Data was collected from the hospital databases between April 2020 and July 2021.

Results

The use of bladder catheters (OR 79.30; p < 0.0001) and central venous catheters (OR, 45.12; p < 0.0001) were the main factors associated with death in ICU COVID-19 patients. Additionally, the number of non-survivors increased with age (p < 0.0001) and prolonged ICU stay (p < 0.0001). Besides, SAPS3 presents a higher sensibility (77.9%) and specificity (63.1%) to discriminate between survivors and non-survivor with an AUC of 0.79 (p < 0.0001).

Conclusion

We suggest that multi-laboratory parameters can predict patient prognosis and guide healthcare teams toward more assertive clinical management, better resource allocation, and improved survival of COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU.

Nationwide analysis of hospital admissions and outcomes of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Austria in 2020 and 2021

This retrospective study evaluated temporal and regional trends of patient admissions to hospitals, intensive care units (ICU), and intermediate care units (IMCU) as well as outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria. We analysed anonymous data from patients admitted to Austrian hospitals with COVID-19 between January 1st, 2020 and December 31st, 2021. We performed descriptive analyses and logistic regression analyses for in-hospital mortality, IMCU or ICU admission, and in-hospital mortality following ICU admission. 68,193 patients were included, 8304 (12.3%) were primarily admitted to ICU, 3592 (5.3%) to IMCU. Hospital mortality was 17.3%; risk factors were male sex (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.60-1.75, p < 0.001) and high age (OR 7.86, 95% CI 7.07-8.74, p < 0.001 for 90+ vs. 60-64 years). Mortality was higher in the first half of 2020 (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.04-1.27, p = 0.01) and the second half of 2021 (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05-1.17, p < 0.001) compared to the second half of 2020 and differed regionally. ICU or IMCU admission was most likely between 55 and 74 years, and less likely in younger and older age groups. We find mortality in Austrian COVID-19-patients to be almost linearly associated with age, ICU admission to be less likely in older individuals, and outcomes to differ between regions and over time.

Assessment of risk scores to predict mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit

Objectives

To assess the ABC2-SPH score in predicting COVID-19 in-hospital mortality, during intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and to compare its performance with other scores (SOFA, SAPS-3, NEWS2, 4C Mortality Score, SOARS, CURB-65, modified CHA2DS2-VASc, and a novel severity score).

Materials and methods

Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICUs of 25 hospitals, located in 17 Brazilian cities, from October 2020 to March 2022, were included. Overall performance of the scores was evaluated using the Brier score. ABC2-SPH was used as the reference score, and comparisons between ABC2-SPH and the other scores were performed by using the Bonferroni method of correction. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.

Results

ABC2-SPH had an area under the curve of 0.716 (95% CI 0.693-0.738), significantly higher than CURB-65, SOFA, NEWS2, SOARS, and modified CHA2DS2-VASc scores. There was no statistically significant difference between ABC2-SPH and SAPS-3, 4C Mortality Score, and the novel severity score.

Conclusion

ABC2-SPH was superior to other risk scores, but it still did not demonstrate an excellent predictive ability for mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Our results indicate the need to develop a new score, for this subset of patients.

Characteristics of postintubation dysphagia in ICU patients in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak: A report of 920 cases from a Brazilian reference center

The purpose of this research was to identify risk factors that were independently related to the maintenance of a swallowing dysfunction in patients affected by critical COVID-19. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of critical patients with COVID-19, who were admitted to a COVID-19 dedicated intensive care unit (ICU) and required prolonged orotracheal intubation (≥48 hours). Demographic and clinical data were collected at ICU admission and/or at hospital discharge or in-hospital death. Swallowing data was based on The Functional Oral Intake Scale (FOIS) and was collected at two distinct moments: initial swallowing assessment and at patient outcome. Patients were divided into two groups according to their FOIS level assigned on the last swallowing assessment: in-hospital resolved dysphagia–patients with FOIS levels 6 and 7; non-resolved dysphagia at hospital outcome–patients with FOIS levels 1 to 5. Nine hundred and twenty patients were included in our study. Results of the multivariate logistic regression model for the prediction of non-resolved dysphagia at hospital outcome in critical COVID-19 patients. indicated that increasing age (p = 0.002), severity at admission (p = 0.015), body mass index (p = 0.008), use of neuromuscular blockers (p = 0.028), presence of neurologic diseases (p = 0.038), presence of Diabetes Mellitus (p = 0.043) and lower FOIS levels on the initial swallowing assessment (p<0.001) were associated with higher chances of presenting dysphagia at hospital outcome. Critical patients with COVID-19 may experience post-acute COVID-19 dysphagia, indicating the need to prepare for the care/rehabilitation of these patients.

Critically ill COVID-19 patients in northeast Brazil: mortality predictors during the first and second waves including SAPS 3

BACKGROUND

The Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 is a reliable score to predict mortality. This study aims to investigate the predictive values of SAPS 3 and other clinical parameters for death in critically ill coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients.

METHODS

This is a prospective study in a tertiary hospital for patients who required intensive care due to COVID-19 infection in northeast Brazil. Two distinct groups were constructed according to the epidemiological data: first wave and second wave. The severity of patients admitted was estimated using the SAPS 3 score.

RESULTS

A total of 767 patients were included: 290 were enrolled in the first wave and 477 in the second wave. Patients in the first wave had more comorbidities, were put on mechanical ventilation and required dialysis and vasopressors more frequently (p<0.05). During the second wave, non-invasive ventilation was more often required (p<0.05). In both periods, older patients and higher SAPS 3 scores on admission were associated with death (p<0.05). Non-invasive ventilation use showed a negative association with death only in the second wave period. In the first wave, the SAPS 3 score was more useful (area under the curve [AUC] 0.897) in predicting death in critically ill COVID-19 patients than in the second wave (AUC 0.810).

CONCLUSION

The SAPS 3 showed very reliable predictive values for death during the waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, mostly together with kidney and pulmonary dysfunction.

Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 Performance in Austrian COVID-19 Patients Admitted to Intensive Care Units with and without Diabetes

This study evaluated and compared the performance of simplified acute physiology score 3 (SAPS 3) for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) with and without diabetes in Austria. The Austrian national public health institute (GÖG) data of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICUs (n = 5850) were analyzed. Three versions of SAPS 3 were used: standard equation, Central European equation, and Austrian equation customized for COVID-19 patients. The observed in-hospital mortality was 38.9%, 42.9%, and 37.3% in all, diabetes, and non-diabetes patients, respectively. The overall C-statistics was 0.69 with an insignificant (p = 0.193) difference between diabetes (0.70) and non-diabetes (0.68) patients. The Brier score was > 0.20 for all SAPS 3 equations in all cohorts. Calibration was unsatisfactory for both standard and Central European equations in all cohorts, whereas it was satisfactory for the Austrian equation in diabetes patients only. The SAPS 3 score demonstrated low discrimination and accuracy in Austrian COVID-19 patients, with an insignificant difference between diabetes and non-diabetes. All equations were miscalibrated particularly in non-diabetes patients, while the Austrian equation showed satisfactory calibration in diabetes patients only. Both uncalibrated and calibrated versions of SAPS 3 should be used with caution in COVID-19 patients.