The Ability of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score to Predict Mobility, Length of Stay and Mortality in Hospital, and Discharge Destination in Patients Admitted with a Hip Fracture

Comparative Analysis of Frailty Scores for Predicting Adverse Outcomes in Hip Fracture Patients: Insights from the United States National Inpatient Sample

The aim of the current investigation was to compare the ability of several frailty scores to predict adverse outcomes in hip fracture patients. All adult patients (18 years or older) who suffered a hip fracture due to a fall and underwent surgical fixation were extracted from the 2019 National Inpatient Sample (NIS) Database. A combination of logistic regression and bootstrapping was used to compare the predictive ability of the Orthopedic Frailty Score (OFS), the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS), the 11-factor modified Frailty Index (11-mFI) and 5-factor (5-mFI) modified Frailty Index, as well as the Johns Hopkins Frailty Indicator. A total of 227,850 patients were extracted from the NIS. In the prediction of in-hospital mortality and failure-to-rescue (FTR), the OFS surpassed all other frailty measures, approaching an acceptable predictive ability for mortality [AUC (95% CI): 0.69 (0.67-0.72)] and achieving an acceptable predictive ability for FTR [AUC (95% CI): 0.70 (0.67-0.72)]. The NHFS demonstrated the highest predictive ability for predicting any complication [AUC (95% CI): 0.62 (0.62-0.63)]. The 11-mFI exhibited the highest predictive ability for cardiovascular complications [AUC (95% CI): 0.66 (0.64-0.67)] and the NHFS achieved the highest predictive ability for delirium [AUC (95% CI): 0.69 (0.68-0.70)]. No score succeeded in effectively predicting venous thromboembolism or infections. In summary, the investigated frailty scores were most effective in predicting in-hospital mortality and failure-to-rescue; however, they struggled to predict complications.

Development and validation of a trauma frailty scale in severely injured patients: the Nottingham Trauma Frailty Index

Aims

Frailty greatly increases the risk of adverse outcome of trauma in older people. Frailty detection tools appear to be unsuitable for use in traumatically injured older patients. We therefore aimed to develop a method for detecting frailty in older people sustaining trauma using routinely collected clinical data.

Methods

We analyzed prospectively collected registry data from 2,108 patients aged ≥ 65 years who were admitted to a single major trauma centre over five years (1 October 2015 to 31 July 2020). We divided the sample equally into two, creating derivation and validation samples. In the derivation sample, we performed univariate analyses followed by multivariate regression, starting with 27 clinical variables in the registry to predict Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS; range 1 to 9) scores. Bland-Altman analyses were performed in the validation cohort to evaluate any biases between the Nottingham Trauma Frailty Index (NTFI) and the CFS.

Results

In the derivation cohort, five of the 27 variables were strongly predictive of the CFS (regression coefficient B = 6.383 (95% confidence interval 5.03 to 7.74), p < 0.001): age, Abbreviated Mental Test score, admission haemoglobin concentration (g/l), pre-admission mobility (needs assistance or not), and mechanism of injury (falls from standing height). In the validation cohort, there was strong agreement between the NTFI and the CFS (mean difference 0.02) with no apparent systematic bias.

Conclusion

We have developed a clinically applicable tool using easily and routinely measured physiological and functional parameters, which clinicians and researchers can use to guide patient care and to stratify the analysis of quality improvement and research projects.

Predictive Value of Machine Learning Models in Postoperative Mortality of Older Adults Patients with Hip Fracture: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Some researchers have used machine learning to predict mortality in old patients with hip fracture, but its application value lacks an evidence-based basis. Hence, we conducted this meta-analysis to explore the predictive accuracy of machine learning for mortality in old patients with hip fracture.

METHODS

We systematically retrieved PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, and Web of Science for relevant studies published before July 15, 2022. The PROBAST assessment tool was used to assess the risk of bias in the included studies. A random-effects model was used for the meta-analysis of C-index, whereas a bivariate mixed-effects model was used for the meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity. The meta-analysis was performed on R and Stata.

RESULTS

Eighteen studies were included, involving 8 machine learning models and 398,422 old patients undergoing hip joint surgery, of whom 60,457 died. According to the meta-analysis, the pooled C-index for machine learning models was 0.762 (95% CI: 0.691 ∼ 0.833) in the training set and 0.838 (95% CI: 0.783 ∼ 0.892) in the validation set, which is better than the C-index of the main clinical scale (Nottingham Hip Fracture Score), that is, 0.702 (95% CI: 0.681 ∼ 0.723). Among different machine learning models, ANN and Bayesian belief network had the best predictive performance.

CONCLUSION

Machine learning models are more accurate in predicting mortality in old patients after hip joint surgery than current mainstream clinical scoring systems. Subsequent research could focus on updating clinical scoring systems and improving their predictive performance by relying on machine learning models.

Validation and updating of the Older Person's Emergency Risk Assessment (OPERA) score to predict outcomes for hip fracture patients

INTRODUCTION

Hip fractures are associated with significant morbidity and mortality in older people. Accurate risk stratification is important for planning of care, informed decision-making and communication with patients and relatives. The Older Persons' Emergency Risk Assessment (OPERA) score is a risk stratification score for older people admitted to hospital. Our aims were to validate OPERA in hip fracture patients, update the score and compare performance with the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS).

METHODS

This dual-centre 3-year observational study (2016-2018) included acutely admitted hip fracture patients managed surgically aged ⩾65 years. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included residence at 120 days and 1-year mortality. Model performance was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) analysis and Brier scores (discrimination) and calibration curves. The OPERA score was updated using regression analysis with additional independent predictors and validated using bootstrap analysis.

RESULTS

2142 patients (median age 86 [80-91] years) were included with a 30-day mortality of 5.2% and a 1-year mortality of 31.4%. 30-day mortality AUC for OPERA was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.77) and for NHFS 0.68 (0.65-0.70). For 1-year mortality AUC for OPERA was 0.74 (0.73-0.75) and for NHFS 0.70 (0.69-0.71). The OPERA Score was updated to Hip-OPERA, including ASA grade. Hip-OPERA demonstrated an AUC for 30-day mortality of 0.77 (0.73-0.81) and an AUC for 1-year mortality of 0.76 (0.75-0.77). AUC for new residential care status at 120 days was 0.79 (0.78-0.80).

CONCLUSIONS

Hip-OPERA demonstrated superior discrimination to the NHFS and OPERA for 30-day mortality, 1-year mortality and residence at 120 days following hip fracture. External validation is desirable.

Predictive Value of Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment Scores for Mortality in Patients With Hip Fracture: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Objective To assess the predictive value of three scoring systems, namely the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), and the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS), in predicting mortality among patients with hip fractures. Materials and methods This retrospective cohort study included 628 participants aged 60 years and above who sought treatment at a UK hospital between January 2018 and December 2018. Data on age, gender, mortality, and assessment scores were collected. The area under the curve was calculated for each receiver operator characteristic (ROC). Cross-tabulation was performed to examine the association between various assessment scores and mortality using the chi-square test. Results The mean age was 80.80±11.18 years. Females were 408 (64.97%). Higher CFS (p<0.001) and NHFS (p<0.001) scores were significantly associated with mortality, while the ASA score did not show a significant association (p=0.225). The calculated area under the curve (AUC) values were as follows: 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.76) for CFS, 0.46 (95% CI: 0.39 to 0.53) for NHFS, and 0.41 (95% CI: 0.34 to 0.48) for the ASA score. Utilizing a cut-off of ≥6 for CFS, 57 individuals (98.3%) in the 30-day mortality group were correctly identified. Similarly, the ROC analysis determined a ≥5 cut-off for NHFS accurately predicting 50 patients (86.2%) who deceased within 30 days. Applying an ASA ≥3 cut-off resulted in a predictive mortality rate of 56 (96.6%). The NHFS score demonstrated the highest predictive capability for mortality, with patients scoring ≥5 having a significantly higher risk of mortality compared to those with a score <5. Conclusion This study showed robust correlations between high CFS (≥6) and NHFS (≥5), and mortality within the hip fracture patient cohort.

Sex differences in clinical outcomes amongst 1105 patients admitted with hip fractures

Amongst hip fracture admissions, mortality is higher in men than in women. However, sex differences in other care-quality measures have not been well-documented. We aimed to examine sex differences in mortality as well as a wide range of underlying health indicators and clinical outcomes in adults ≥ 60 year of age admitted with hip fractures from their own homes to a single NHS hospital between April-2009 and June-2019. Sex differences in delirium, length of stay (LOS) and mortality in hospital, readmission, and discharge destination, were examined by logistic regression. There were 787 women and 318 men of similar mean age (± SD): 83.1 year (± 8.6) and 82.5 year (± 9.0), respectively (P = 0.269). There were no sex differences in history of dementia or diabetes, anticholinergic burden, pre-fracture physical function, American Society of Anesthesiologists grades, or surgical and medical management. Stroke and ischaemic heart disease, polypharmacy, and alcohol consumption were more common in men. After adjustment for these differences and age, men had greater risk of delirium (with or without cognitive impairment) within one day of surgery: OR = 1.75 (95%CI 1.14-2.68), LOS ≥ 3 weeks in hospital: OR = 1.52 (1.07-2.16), mortality in hospital: OR = 2.04 (1.14-3.64), and readmission once or more after 30 days of a discharge: OR = 1.53 (1.03-2.31). Men had a lower risk of a new discharge to residential/nursing care: OR = 0.46 (0.23-0.93). The present study revealed that, in addition to a greater risk of mortality than women, men also had many other adverse health outcomes. These findings, which have not been well-documented, serve to stimulate future targeted preventive strategies and research.

Prediction of long-term mortality following hip fracture surgery: evaluation of three risk models

INTRODUCTION

Several prognostic models have been developed for mortality in hip fracture patients, but their accuracy for long-term prediction is unclear. This study evaluates the performance of three models assessing 30-day, 1-year and 8-year mortality after hip fracture surgery: the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS), the model developed by Holt et al. and the Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam (HEMA).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients admitted with a fractured hip between January 2012 and June 2013 were included in this retrospective cohort study. Relevant variables used by the three models were collected, as were mortality data. Predictive performance was assessed in terms of discrimination with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Clinical usefulness was evaluated by determining risk groups for each model, comparing differences in mortality using Kaplan-Meier curves, and by assessing positive and negative predictive values.

RESULTS

A total of 344 patients were included for analysis. Observed mortality rates were 6.1% after 30 days, 19.1% after 1 year and 68.6% after 8 years. The NHFS and the model by Holt et al. demonstrated good to excellent discrimination and adequate calibration for both short- and long-term mortality prediction, with similar clinical usefulness measures. The HEMA demonstrated inferior prediction of 30-day and 8-year mortality, with worse discriminative abilities and a significant lack of fit.

CONCLUSIONS

The NHFS and the model by Holt et al. allowed for accurate identification of low- and high-risk patients for both short- and long-term mortality after a fracture of the hip. The HEMA performed poorly. When considering predictive performance and ease of use, the NHFS seems most suitable for implementation in daily clinical practice.

Predictability of Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio in preoperative elderly hip fracture patients for post-operative short-term complications: a retrospective study

PURPOSE

Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) is a simple biomarker of systemic inflammatory response. We investigated predictability of NLR for early adverse outcome after surgery for hip fracture in elderly population.

METHODS

We reviewed a total of 971 elderly patients with hip fracture who underwent emergency surgery between January 2017 and July 2020 in the Department of Orthopaedics Surgery at the Wollongong Hospital. After considering exclusion criteria, data from a total of 834 patients included in our study. Socio-demographic data, NLR in admission, updated Charlson comorbidity index (uCCI), biochemical markers, mortality rate and 15 short term post-operative complications were collected to determine predictability of NLR for post-operative complications and mortality.

RESULTS

After hip surgery, Hospital in-patient case fatality rate was 3.7% (31). In addition, 63.1% (511) of the patients had at least one complication or more. Logistic regression demonstrated that raised NLR (P-value < 0.001, OR 1.05) and uCCI≥4 (P-Value < 0.001, OR 1.75) are associated with post-operative complications. Moreover, decreased haemoglobin was associated with adverse effects (P-value < 0.001, OR 0.97). No association was found for any of these variables with in-patient mortality except for albumin (P-value: 0.03). In addition, despite significant association, ROC analyses showed a low predictability for each of the above variables including NLR (AUC 0.59) for post-operative complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite significant association, NLR was unable to prognosticate early adverse outcomes. However, it can be considered as a risk factor in admission for postoperative complications in combination with other risk factors and clinical context.

Validation of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score in Predicting Postoperative Outcomes Following Hip Fracture Surgery

OBJECTIVE

Although several prognostic models have been developed for patients who underwent hip fracture surgery, their preoperative performance was insufficiently validated. We aimed to verify the effectiveness of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for predicting postoperative outcomes following hip fracture surgery.

METHODS

This was a single-center and retrospective analysis. A total of 702 elderly patients with hip fractures (age ≥ 65 years old) who received treatment in our hospital from June 2020 to August 2021 were selected as the research participants. They were divided into the survival group and the death group based on their survival 30 days after surgery. The multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify the independent risk factors for the 30-day mortality after surgery. The NHFS and American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grades were used to construct these models, and a receiver operating characteristic curve was plotted to assess their diagnostic significance. A correlation analysis was performed between NHFS and length of hospitalization and mobility 3 months after surgery.

RESULTS

There were significant differences in the age, albumin level, NHFS, and ASA grade between both groups (p < 0.05). The length of hospitalization in the death group was longer than the survival group (p < 0.05). The perioperative blood transfusion and postoperative ICU transfer rates in the death group were higher than in the survival group (p < 0.05). The death group's incidence of pulmonary infections, urinary tract infections, cardiovascular events, pressure ulcers, stress ulcers with bleeding, and intestinal obstruction was higher than the survival group (p < 0.05). The NHFS and ASA III were independent risk factors for the 30-day mortality after surgery, regardless of age and albumin level (p < 0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of the NHFS and ASA grade for predicting the 30-day mortality after surgery was 0.791 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.709-0.873, p < 0.05) and 0.621 (95% CI 0.477-0.764, p > 0.05), respectively. The NHFS positively correlated with hospitalization length and mobility grade 3 months after surgery (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The NHFS demonstrated a better predictive performance than the ASA score for the 30-day mortality after surgery and positively correlated with the hospitalization length and postoperative activity limitation in elderly patients with hip fractures.

Mortality Prediction in Hip Fracture Patients: Physician Assessment Versus Prognostic Models

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate 2 prognostic models for mortality after a fracture of the hip, the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score and Hip Fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam and to compare their predictive performance to physician assessment of mortality risk in hip fracture patients.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Two level-2 trauma centers located in the Netherlands.

PATIENTS

Two hundred forty-four patients admitted to the Emergency Departments of both hospitals with a fractured hip.

INTERVENTION

Data used in both prediction models were collected at the time of admission for each individual patient, as well as predictions of mortality by treating physicians.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Predictive performances were evaluated for 30-day, 1-year, and 5-year mortality. Discrimination was assessed with the area under the curve (AUC); calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration plots; clinical usefulness in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

RESULTS

Mortality was 7.4% after 30 days, 22.1% after 1 year, and 59.4% after 5 years. There were no statistically significant differences in discrimination between the prediction methods (AUC 0.73-0.80). The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score demonstrated underfitting for 30-day mortality and failed to identify the majority of high-risk patients (sensitivity 33%). The Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam showed systematic overestimation and overfitting. Physicians were able to identify most high-risk patients for 30-day mortality (sensitivity 78%) but with some overestimation. Both risk models demonstrated a lack of fit when used for 1-year and 5-year mortality predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, prognostic models and physicians demonstrated similar discriminating abilities when predicting mortality in hip fracture patients. Although physicians overestimated mortality, they were better at identifying high-risk patients and at predicting long-term mortality.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Length of Hospital Stay in Hip Fracture Patients: A Single Centre Study

Background

Hip fracture is a debilitating injury, especially in older individuals, which is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In recent decades, there has been a great focus on early rehabilitation and discharge after hip fractures. The aim of such efforts is to minimize the financial and clinical burden of this condition. We conducted our study during the COVID-19 pandemic and compared the length of hospital stay (LOS) in 2020 to the LOS in 2019. Additionally, we studied the factors which may impact the LOS, such as premorbid status according to established scoring systems, the type of fracture, an operation performed, and time to surgery.

Methods

We collected the data regarding the length of stay (in days) for all hip fracture patients admitted to our unit from 1^st January 2019 until 31^st December 2020. We then compared the mean LOS for both years using the t-test. We calculated the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) and American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) scores for patients admitted in 2020 and calculated the correlation between increasing values of these scores and the LOS. We also compared the mean LOS for patients admitted in 2020 based on the type of fracture and type of management. We studied the correlation between the time to surgery and the LOS for patients admitted in 2020.

Results

Three hundred and eighty-eight patients were admitted with hip fractures in 2020, and 452 were admitted in 2019. LOS in 2020 was significantly lower (23.39 days) compared to 2019 (31.36 days) with p<0.01. While evaluating data from 2019, it was noted that there was a small positive correlation between LOS and NHFS (r=0.231, p<0.001) and LOS and ASA (r=0.18, p<0.001). The mean LOS for intracapsular fractures was noted to be lower than that of extracapsular fractures, but this was not statistically significant (p=0.17). An ANOVA test showed that the mean LOS for patients undergoing hemiarthroplasty, dynamic hip screws (DHS), and intramedullary nails (IMN) was significantly longer than for patients managed with total hip replacement or patients managed non-operatively (F=3.551, p<0.01).

Conclusion

Hip fracture patients admitted to our department were discharged quicker during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The LOS for hip fractures increases with an increase in their NHFS or ASA scores. Extracapsular and intracapsular fractures lead to roughly the same periods of inpatient stay. Patients undergoing hemiarthroplasty, DHS, or IMN stay longer in the hospital compared to other treatment modalities.

Pre-fracture Mobility Using Standardized Scale as an Early Indicator of High Health Risk in Patients with a Hip Fracture

Hip fracture in older adults is associated with poor prognosis. We tested the hypothesis that a single standardized measure, pre-fracture mobility, can be used as an early indicator of patients at high health risk after a hip fracture. Analysis of prospectively collected data of older adults admitted with a hip fracture between April-2009 and June-2019 in a single NHS hospital, UK. Pre-fracture mobility status (freely mobile, mobilising outdoors with one aid or with two aids, and limited to indoors), was used to predict length of stay (LOS) and mortality in hospital, and discharge destination. Among 3073 (2231 women, 842 men) admitted from their own home (mean ± SD age = 82.7 ± 9.3 yr), 159 died and 2914 survived to discharge: 1834 back to their home, 772 to rehabilitation, 66 to residential care, 141 to nursing care and 101 to unknown destinations. Compared with LOS of 15.9 ± 15.6 days in patients who mobilised freely before fracture (reference), those who were able to mobilise outdoors with one aid stayed 3.5 days, and those with two aids or confined to indoor mobility stayed one week longer in hospital. In-patient mortality was increased among patients who mobilised outdoors with two aids: OR = 2.1 (95%CI = 1.3–3.3), and those limited to indoors: OR = 2.1 (1.3–1.5). Finally, a change in residence on discharge was more likely in those who mobilised outdoors with two aids (OR = 1.8, 95%CI = 1.2–2.6), and those limited to indoors (OR = 1.9, 95%CI = 1.2–2.9). In conclusion, pre-fracture mobility may be a useful early indicator for identifying patients at increased risk of adverse outcomes after an acute hip fracture.

Internal fixation versus hip arthroplasty in patients with nondisplaced femoral neck fractures: short-term results from a geriatric trauma registry

Purpose

To determine whether internal fixation (IF) or hip arthroplasty (HA) is associated with superior outcomes in geriatric nondisplaced femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients.

Methods

Data from the Registry for Geriatric Trauma of the German Trauma Society (ATR-DGU) were analyzed (IF Group 449 and HA Group 1278 patients). In-hospital care and a 120-day postoperative follow-up were conducted. Primary outcomes, including mobility, residential status, reoperation rate, and a generic health status measure (EQ-5D score), and the secondary outcome of mortality were compared between groups. Multivariable analyses were performed to assess independent treatment group associations (odds ratios, ORs) with the primary and secondary end points.

Results

Patients in the HA group were older (83 vs. 81 years, p < 0.001) and scored higher on the Identification of Seniors at Risk screening (3 vs. 2, p < 0.001). We observed no differences in residential status, reoperation rate, EQ-5D score, or mortality between groups. After adjusting for key covariates, including prefracture ambulatory capacity, the mobility of patients in the HA group was more frequently impaired at the 120-day follow-up (OR 2.28, 95% confidence interval = 1.11–4.74).

Conclusion

Treatment with HA compared to treatment with IF led to a more than twofold increase in the adjusted odds of impaired ambulation at the short-term follow-up, while no significant associations with residential status, reoperation rate, EQ-5D index score, or mortality were observed. Thus, IF for geriatric nondisplaced FNFs was associated with superior mobility 120 days after surgery. However, before definitive treatment recommendations can be made, prospective, randomized, long-term studies must be performed to confirm our findings.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00068-021-01801-1.

Raloxifene Ameliorates Glucosamine-Induced Insulin Resistance in Ovariectomized Rats

Osteoarthritis (OA) and osteoporosis (OP) are common among older women, especially postmenopausal women. Glucosamine (GlcN) is a common medication for OA, but it may induce insulin resistance and β-cell dysfunction, especially if ovarian hormones are lacking. Raloxifene (RLX) is a selective estrogen receptor modulator and also an OP drug. Previously, we found that estrogen could improve GlcN-induced insulin resistance in ovariectomized (OVX) rats. Here, we further hypothesized that RLX, similarly to estrogen, can ameliorate GlcN-induced insulin resistance in OVX rats. We used GlcN to induce insulin resistance in OVX rats as a model for evaluating the protective effects of RLX in vivo. We used a pancreatic β-cell line, MIN-6, to study the mechanisms underlying the effect of RLX in GlcN-induced β-cell dysfunction in vitro. Increases in fasting plasma glucose, insulin, and homeostasis model assessments of insulin resistance in OVX Sprague Dawley rats treated with GlcN were reversed by RLX treatment (n = 8 in each group). Skeletal muscle GLUT-4 increased, liver PEPCK decreased, pancreatic islet hypertrophy, and β-cell apoptosis in OVX rats treated with GlcN was ameliorated by RLX. The negative effects of GlcN on insulin secretion and cell viability in MIN-6 cells were related to the upregulation of reticulum (ER) stress-associated proteins (C/EBP homologous protein, phospho-extracellular signal-regulated kinase, phospho-c-JunN-terminal kinase), the expression of which was reduced by RLX. Pretreatment with estrogen receptor antagonists reversed the protective effects of RLX. GlcN can induce insulin resistance, β-cell dysfunction, and apoptosis in OVX rats and increase ER stress-related proteins in β-cells, whereas RLX can reverse these adverse effects. The effects of RLX act mainly through estrogen receptor α; therefore, RLX may be a candidate drug for postmenopausal women with OA and OP.

Clinical outcomes in patients admitted to hospital with cervical spine fractures or with hip fractures

Patients admitted with a cervical fracture are twice as likely to die within 30 days of injury than those with a hip fracture. However, guidelines for the management of cervical fractures are less available than for hip fractures. We hypothesise that outcomes may differ between these types of fractures. We analysed 1359 patients (406 men, 953 women) with mean age of 83.8 years (standard deviation = 8.7) admitted to a National Health Service hospital in 2013-2019 with a cervical (7.5%) or hip fracture (92.5%) of similar age. The association of cervical fracture (hip fracture as reference), hospital length of stay (LOS), co-morbidities, age and sex with outcomes (acute delirium, new pressure ulcer, and discharge to residential/nursing care) was assessed by stepwise multivariate logistic regression. Acute delirium without history of dementia was increased with cervical fractures: odds ratio (OR) = 2.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.3-4.7, age ≥ 80 years: OR = 3.5 (95% CI = 1.9-6.4), history of stroke: OR = 1.8 (95% CI = 1.0-3.1) and ischaemic heart disease: OR = 1.9 (95% CI = 1.1-3.6); pressure ulcers was increased with cervical fractures: OR = 10.9 (95% CI = 5.3-22.7), LOS of 2-3 weeks: OR = 3.0 (95% CI = 1.2-7.5) and LOS of ≥ 3 weeks: OR = 4.9, 95% CI = 2.2-11.0; and discharge to residential/nursing care was increased with cervical fractures: OR = 3.2 (95% CI = 1.4-7.0), LOS of ≥ 3 weeks: OR = 4.4 (95% CI = 2.5-7.6), dementia: OR = 2.7 (95% CI = 1.6-4.7), Parkinson's disease: OR = 3.4 (95% CI = 1.3-8.8), and age ≥ 80 years: OR = 2.7 (95% CI = 1.3-5.6). In conclusion, compared with hip fracture, cervical fracture is more likely to associate with acute delirium and pressure ulcers, and for discharge to residency of high level of care, independent of established risk factors.

Rapid preoperative predicting tools for 1-year mortality and walking ability of Asian elderly femoral neck fracture patients who planned for hip arthroplasty

BACKGROUND

Femoral neck fractures in elderly patients typically warrant operative treatment and are related to high risks of mortality and morbidity. As early hip arthroplasties for elderly femoral neck fractures are widely accepted, rapid predicting models that allowed quantitative and individualized prognosis assessments are strongly needed as references for orthopedic surgeons during preoperative conversations.

METHODS

Data of patients aged ≥ 65 years old who underwent primary unilateral hemiarthroplasty or total hip arthroplasty due to femoral neck fracture between January 1st, 2012 and June 30th, 2019 in our center were collected. Candidate variables included demographic data, comorbidities, and routine preoperative screening tests. The main outcomes included 1-year mortality and free walking rate after hip arthroplasty. Patients were randomly divided into derivation and validation groups in the ratio of three to one. Nomograms were developed based on multivariable logistic regressions of derivation group via R language. One thousand bootstraps were used for internal validation. Those models were further tested in the validation group for external validation.

RESULTS

The final analysis was performed on 702 patients after exclusion and follow-up. All-cause 1-year mortality of the entire data set was 23.4%, while the free walking rate was 57.3%. Preoperative walking ability showed the biggest impact on predicting 1-year mortality and walking ability. Static nomograms were created from the final multivariable models, which allowed simplified graphical computations for the risks of 1-year mortality and walking ability in a certain patient. The bias-corrected C index of those nomograms for predicting 1-year mortality in the derivation group and the validation group were 0.789 and 0.768, while they were 0.807 and 0.759 for predicting postoperative walking ability. The AUC of the mortality and walking ability predicting models were 0.791 and 0.818, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our models enabled rapid preoperative 1-year mortality and walking ability predictions in Asian elderly femoral neck fracture patients who planned for hip arthroplasty, with adequate predictive discrimination and calibration. Those rapid assessment models could help surgeons in making more reasonable clinical decisions and subsequently reducing the risk of potential medical dispute via quantitative and individualized prognosis assessments.

Implementing grip strength assessment in hip fracture patients: a feasibility project

Objectives:

Risk stratification scores are used in hip fracture surgery, but none incorporate objective tests for low muscle strength. Grip strength testing is simple and cheap but not routinely assessed for patients with hip fracture. This project aimed to assess the feasibility of implementing grip strength testing into admission assessment of patients with hip fracture.

Methods:

A scalable protocol and a corresponding training programme of instructional presentations and practical assessments were designed and delivered by and for physiotherapy staff. Grip strength values were collected pre-surgery on patients with hip fracture at a single centre whilst supine in bed. Implementation of the process was evaluated using narrative, quantitative and cost measures.

Results:

53 hip fracture patients with a mean age 80.6 (SD 10.4), of which 36 (67.9%) were female, were included. Testing was offered to 42/52 (81%) patients. Cognitive impairment prevented 14/42 (33%) of patients from completing testing; one patient declined testing. Of the 27 patients who completed testing, 14/27 (52%) had low grip strength as defined by EWGSOP2 criteria. The projected cost of testing for one year was £2.68-£2.82 per patient. Fidelity to the protocol was high using multiple criteria.

Conclusions:

Grip strength assessment is acceptable to physiotherapy staff and can be rapidly and cost-effectively implemented into hip fracture admission assessment.

Performance of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score and Clinical Frailty Scale as predictors of short and long-term outcomes: a dual-centre 3-year observational study of hip fracture patients

INTRODUCTION

Hip fractures account for a growing number of hospital admissions worldwide and are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) was developed to help risk-stratify these patients. Frailty is increasingly recognised to be a predictor of adverse outcomes. The aim of this study, using prospectively collected data from two non-specialist UK hospitals, was to report contemporaneous outcomes for patients with a hip fracture and compare the performance of the NHFS with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data were collected over a 3-year period (2016-2018) from patients admitted with a hip fracture. In-patient and 1-year mortality and length of stay were compared between the NHFS, CFS and other variables. For discrimination to predict mortality, area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curves were produced.

RESULTS

2422 patients (70.6% female), median age 85 (interquartile range 78-90) were included, with 93% undergoing an operation. 30-day mortality was 5.8% and 1-year mortality 23.5%. Average hospital stay was 18.0 days (Standard deviation 13.7). For in-patient mortality AUC for NHFS was 0.69 (95% CI 0.64-0.74) and for CFS 0.63 (0.57-0.69); for 1-year mortality AUC for NHFS was 0.71 (0.68-0.73) and for CFS 0.67 (0.64-0.71). Neither score predicted extended hospital stay.

CONCLUSION

Both CFS and NHFS predict 1-year survival with similar, moderate discrimination. Future research could explore whether other factors could be combined to allow better risk stratification following a hip fracture to inform patients and clinicians.

Derivation of age-adjusted LACE index thresholds in the prediction of mortality and frequent hospital readmissions in adults

The LACE index has been shown to predict hospital readmissions and death with variable accuracy. A LACE index ≥ 10 is considered as high risk in the existing literature. We aimed to derive age-specific LACE index thresholds in the prediction of mortality and frequent readmissions. Analysis of prospectively collected data of consecutive alive-discharge episodes between 01/04/2017 and 31/03/2019 to a single hospital was conducted. The derivation of LACE index thresholds for predicting all-cause mortality within 6 months of hospital discharge or frequent readmissions (≥ 2 times within 28 days) was examined by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) in 32270 patients (14878 men, 17392 women) aged 18-107 year (mean = 64.0 years, SD = 20.5). For all patients with a LACE index ≥ 10, the area under the curve (AUC) for predicting mortality was 80.5% (95% CI 79.7-81.3) and for frequent readmissions was 84.0% (83.0-85.1). Two-graph ROC plots showed that the LACE index threshold where sensitivity equates specificity was 9.5 (95% intermediate range = 5.6-13.5) for predicting mortality and 10.3 (95% intermediate range = 6.6-13.6) for frequent readmissions. These thresholds were lowest among youngest individuals and rose progressively with age for mortality prediction: 18-49 years = 5.0, 50-59 years = 6.5, 60-69 years = 8.0, 70-79 years = 9.8 and ≥ 80 years = 11.6, and similarly for frequent readmissions: 18-49 years = 5.1, 50-59 years = 7.5, 60-69 years = 9.1, 70-79 years = 10.6 and ≥ 80 years = 12.0. Positive and negative likelihood ratios (LRs) ranged 1.5-3.3 and 0.4-0.6 for predicting mortality, and 2.5-4.4 and 0.3-0.6 for frequent readmissions, respectively, with stronger evidence in younger than in older individuals (LRs further from unity). In conclusion, the LACE index predicts mortality and frequent readmissions at lower thresholds and stronger in younger than in older individuals. Age should be taken into account when using the LACE index for identifying patients at high risk.