Temporal Dynamics of the Driving Factors of Urban Landscape Change of Addis Ababa During the Past Three Decades

Anthropogenic impacts on urban blue space and its reciprocal effect on human and socio-ecological health

Quantifying anthropogenic impacts on blue space (BS) and its effect on human and socio-ecological health was least explored. The present study aimed to do this in reference to the urban BS transformation scenario of Eastern India. To measure BS transformation, Landsat image-based water indices were run from 1990 to 2021. Anthropogenic impact score (AIS) and 7 components scores of 78 selected BS on 70 parameters related data driven from the field. Total 345 respondents were taken for human and socio-ecological health assessment. For this, depression (DEP), anxiety (ANX), stress (STR), physical activities (PA), social capital (SC), therapeutic landscape (TL) and environment building (EB) parameters were taken. The result exhibited that BS was reduced. About 50% of urban core BS was reported highly impacted. Human and socio-ecological health was identified as good in proximity to BS, but it was observed better in the cases of larger peripheral BS. AIS on BS was found to be positively associated with mental health (0.47-0.63) and negatively associated with PA, SC, TL and EB (-0.50 to -0.90). Standard residual in ordinary least square was reported low (-1.5 to 1.5) in 95% BS. Therefore, BS health restoration and management is crucial for sustaining the living environment.

Examining the informal urban growth trends in a Port city

Rapid urban developmental growth is a heated debate worldwide due to environmental challenges. This research has examined the spatiotemporal trend of informal built-up growth in Karachi city. Using a geo-information system, the past twenty years (2000-2020) trends of informal built-up growth are examined. For attaining the research objectives, geo-referenced high-resolution maps and satellite images are used for accuracy based spatial data. Karachi is divided into five different land use and land cover (LULC): formal built-up, informal built-up, vacant, water bodies, and green spaces. Spatial data of informal built-up growth change of five different years, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 are generated through acquired maps digitization using ArcMap. Subsequently, the gains and transfers of Karachi's informal built-up growth based on five years 2000-2005, 2005-2010, 2010-2015, and 2015-2020 are analyzed using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) in IDRISI software. Also, land use land cover changes (LULCC) are predicted for the next 40 years (2020-2060) using the integrated Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) simulation model in IDRISI. The results revealed that Karachi's built-up is expanding rapidly. Land conversion into the informal built-up area is alarming, as it has changed from 144.31 km2 to 217.19 km2 with 72.88 km2 in the past twenty years (2000-2020) and has occupied green and agricultural land. Most informal built-up areas have transitioned from vacant (71.01 km2) land use land cover (LULC). The informal built-up area could expand from 217.19 km2 to 317.63 km2, with about 100.44 km2 up to 2060. The planned and unplanned development will be towards the city's East (E) direction and will convert and ruin agriculture and vacant land. The present study provides suggestions to urban planners, administrative authorities, and policymakers to control informal growth and achieve sustainable development goals in developing countries.

Quantifying and analyzing the impact assessment on land use change of urban growth using a timeline

Land use change occurs by altering natural landscape to manmade built environment. Rapid urban growth is the main factor for land use change at global level. Addis Ababa is one of the recent rapidly growing urban areas in Africa. Since 1983, the population has increased by nearly three times. However, the spatial expansion of the urban area has been much greater with urban sprawl, informal settlement, industry, condominium housing, and real estate development. The demand for urban land has been increasing at alarming rate both by city government, investors, and its residents. The city is primate and the population nine times the second largest city in the country. This study focused on quantifying and analyzing impact assessment of urban growth on land use change from 1986 to 2019. The study assessed the major change in extent and determinants of land use change through 33 years (1986-2019) and future growth scenario the next 30 years from 2019 to 2049. This study used Landsat image, base map of 1986, 1998, 2008, and 2019, to analyze built-up growth and land use change. Observation and interview have also taken to explore more on major urban growth and land use change driving factor from concerned bodies. The last, land use efficiency method was applied to measure land consumption rate and population growth rate. The result showed that in 1986, 1998, 2008, and 2019, built-up covered 21.83%, 42.31%, 59.42%, and 81.20% respectively. This shows that the agriculture and open space were rapidly changed to built-up by 32,486.67 hectares for housing, manufacturing, and infrastructure development. The result from concerned bodies has portrayed that the key determinants for urban land use change in the city were population growth at 4.2% per annum. Government led condominium housing, real estate development, and industrial development expansion including informal settlement has been rapidly reducing agriculture and open space through time. Therefore, unconventional planning approach could be exercised based on community interest for affordable high-rise building. Moreover, disseminate or decentralize industries beyond capital city in regional capital to reduce migration rate and rapid change of urban land use by creating employment opportunity and urban-urban linkage in the reginal capital rather than the capital city.

Impacts and Implications of Land Use Land Cover Dynamics on Groundwater Recharge and Surface Runoff in East African Watershed

Assessing the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use land cover (LULC) change on water resources is vital for watershed sustainability and developing proper management strategies. Evaluating LULC scenarios synergistically with hydrologic modeling affords substantial evidence of factors that govern hydrologic processes. Hence, this study assessed the spatiotemporal effects and implications of LULC dynamics on groundwater recharge and surface runoff in Gilgel Gibe, an East African watershed, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Three different LULC maps (2000, 2010, and 2020) were derived from Landsat images, and the comparisons pointed out that the land-use pattern had changed significantly. The agricultural land and grassland cover increased by 3.76% and 1.36%, respectively, from 2000 to 2020. The implications acquired for 2000 show that forested land covers decreased by 5.49% in 2020. The SWAT simulation process was executed using a digital elevation model, soil, LULC, and weather data. The model was calibrated and validated using streamflow data to understand the surface runoff and groundwater recharge responses of each Hydrologic Response Units on reference simulation periods using the Calibration and Uncertainty Program (SWAT-CUP), Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm. The observed and simulated streamflows were checked for performance indices of coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS) on monthly time steps. The results show that there is good agreement for all LULC simulations, both calibration and validation periods (R2 & NSE ≥ 0.84, −15 < PBIAS < +15). This reveals that for the LULC assessment of any hydrological modeling, the simulation of each reference period should be calibrated to have reasonable outputs. The study indicated that surface runoff has increased while groundwater decreased over the last two decades. The temporal variation revealed that the highest recharge and runoff occurred during the wet seasons. Thus, the study can support maximizing water management strategies and reducing adverse driving environmental forces.

Grain Production Space Reconstruction and Its Influencing Factors in the Loess Plateau

Grain production space, ecological service space and urban–rural development space are the classifications of land systems from the perspective of the dominant function of the land system. Grain production space reconstruction concentrates on the principal contradictions of land system changes, and is the key to exploring the transformation of land system. Therefore, the pathways, process and influencing factors of grain production space reconstruction in the Loess Plateau of Chian from 1980 to 2018 was explored from three dimensions of quantity–quality–spatial pattern in this study. Results showed that the quantity of grain production space showed a slight downward trend with a net decrease of 9156 km² between 1980 and 2018, but its total quality showed a fluctuating growth trend under rain-fed conditions. Due to the intensification of human activities, grain production space was gradually fragmented, and the distribution tended to be decentralized, and the shape gradually became regular. Meanwhile, both the quantity and quality gravity center of grain production space moved to the northwest by 8.32 km and 86.03 km, respectively. The reconstruction of grain production space in the Loess Plateau was mainly realized through four pathways: Grain for Green, Urban Expansion, Deforestation and Reclamation, and Land Consolidation. The grain production space was mainly reconstructed through the pathway of Grain for Green after 2000. The four reconstruction pathways were the result of a combination of natural environment and socio-economic factors, but influencing factors had different strengths and directions for each reconstruction pathway. From the perspective of social economy–land use–ecological environment coupling, in order to maintain the sustainable development of the land systems, it is necessary to reduce the trade-offs of the functions of land systems as much as possible and strive to coordinate the relationship among grain production, ecological protection and high-quality development.

Spatial Analysis of Intra-Urban Land Use Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)

Currently, circa 30% of the population in sub-Saharan Africa resides in cities, and this figure is expected to double in 2040. The recent literature describes the urban expansion processes of African cities in much detail. However, the urbanization wave in Africa also leads to important intra-urban land use dynamics, which have important consequences on the quality of life within existing cities, which has received less attention. This study aims to contribute to these information gaps by (1) analyzing the extent of the urban land use conversion in contrasting urban locations using satellite images for physical criteria-based classifications and (2) assessing the potential consequences of these intra-urban conversions on the quality of life. Intra-urban land use changes were documented based on satellite imagery for the period 2002–2020. Based on some representative attributes, Addis Ababa city was selected for the case study. Urban land use dynamics and population density changes were examined based on the selected case study neighborhoods and randomly identified land parcels in the city, respectively. Urban development strategies and programs that emerged over recent decades had caused intra-urban land use dynamics, which brought significant population density changes. Moreover, these changes have caused an unbalanced distribution of socio-economic amenities across the city.

Integrating river restoration goals with urban planning practices: the case of Kebena river, Addis Ababa

In the urban environment, rivers are most affected by development mismanagement to the extent that some of the essential services such as habitat for biodiversity conservation, recreation and domestic uses to communities are critically impaired. Consequently, river restoration is presented as practical solution to address urban river degradation issues and to revitalize urban rivers and river buffers. Goal setting along with clear and measurable goals in urban river restoration processes is one of the critical tools to guide restoration activities. This study aims to assess the qualitative effects of clearly defined river restoration goals and analyze their tangible effects on river restoration efforts in Kebena river watershed, Addis Ababa. Qualitative data from expert interviews, stakeholders’ consultation, document review and institutional analysis are used to inform this research. The results show that the Environmental Protection Authority and Structural plan of the city have vaguely defined river restoration goal in the planning and implementation phases of river restoration projects. On the other hand, the goals of different institutions varied in context, while others were redundant and lacked synergy. As a result, urban rivers and river buffers accommodate various land uses that are negatively affecting the potential of rivers and river buffers in benefiting communities. Finally, the study forwarded critical methodological steps to guide the formulation of a well-defined goal and setting priorities for concrete actions to restore the river.

Monitoring Urban Expansion and Urban Green Spaces Change in Addis Ababa: Directional and Zonal Analysis Integrated with Landscape Expansion Index

Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, is urbanizing very fast. This study aimed to assess urban expansion and Urban Green Spaces (UGS) change in the city from 1989 to 2019. Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) and Landscape Expansion Index (LEI) were used to extract Land Use Land Cover (LULC) data, measure urban expansion and UGS change and analyze urban growth pattern in inner zone, outer zone and eight quadrants. The results showed that urban area in the inner zone increased from 3712 ha to 3716 ha (0.1%), and from 3716 ha to 3874 ha (4.2%) and in the first (1989–1999) and second periods (1999–2009), while it decreased from 3874 ha to 3733 ha (3.6%) in the third period (2009–2019), portraying a non-unidirectional trend of change. Conversely, the UGS in the inner zone decreased from 60 ha to 54 ha (10%), and from 54 ha to 38 ha (29.6%) in the first and second periods, while it increased from 38 ha to 53 ha (39.4%) in the third period, reporting spatial tradeoff between the two land cover types. Meanwhile, urban areas in the outer zone increased from 10,729 ha to 15,112 ha (40%), from 15,112 ha to 21,377 ha (41.4%) and from 21,377 ha to 28,176 ha (31.8%) in the first, second and third periods, respectively, representing frontiers of suburbanization. On the other hand, the UGS in the outer zone decreased from 3624 ha to 3171 ha, from 3127 ha to 2555 ha and from 2555 ha to 1879 ha, with an annual rate of decline of 1.25%, 1.8% and 2.6%, respectively, showing increasing trend of UGS destruction for urban construction. Furthermore, the LEI analysis result showed that urban expansion pattern demonstrated largely an outlying growth characterized by differentiation and isolation of patches, whereas the infill and edge expansion pattern were insignificant and fluctuated over 30 years. Furthermore, the directional analysis showed that urban area predominately expanded in SEE,> SSE,> SSW,> SWW,> and NEE directions with varying magnitude in the first, second and third period, but decreased in third period in NWW, < NNW< and NNE directions. In response to such urban growth pattern, the center of gravity of urban area shifted from north to south during the study period, displaying main direction urbanization in recent years. Conclusively, zonal and directional studies are more effective in characterizing the Spatio-temporal dynamics variabilities of urban expansion and UGS change for informed urban planning towards sustainable urban development.

A Framework to Prioritize the Public Expectations from Water Treatment Plants based on Trapezoidal Type-2 Fuzzy Ahp Method

Water treatment plants play a major role in the cycle of water recovery and reuse. Besides the benefits of water treatment plants, they have a great impact on the environment, social life, economy, and natural habitats. In this sense, decision-makers should effectively plan the construction and operational activities of plants, taking into account the expectations of users. Growing public expectations about water treatment plants increase the pressures on investors and government managers. In this study, we focus on defining and determining the weights of public expectations from water treatment plants and handle as a multi-criteria decision-making problem. A two-level hierarchical model is structured to evaluate public expectations from water treatment plants as model criteria. For the problem, a literature review is performed to search the main criteria. The most suitable criteria for the problem are determined using experts' opinions. Then, the sub-criteria are determined. Experts' evaluations are collected by face to face interviews. These evaluations are consolidated and finalized via the modified Delphi method. Trapezoidal Type-2 Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (T2F-AHP) is employed to determine criteria weights using results obtained by the modified Delphi method. A sensitivity analysis is performed to show the reliability of the proposed methodology. A comparison is also performed between the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the proposed methodology. The results of this study can be used as a guide to develop public strategies about water treatment plants. Finally, conclusions and future directions of this work are given.

The Social Stratification of Availability, Affordability, and Consumption of Food in Families with Preschoolers in Addis Ababa; The EAT Addis Study in Ethiopia

The aim of this study was to understand the quality of diet being consumed among families in Addis Ababa, and to what extent social stratification and perceptions of availability and affordability affect healthy food consumption. Data were collected from 5467 households in a face-to-face interview with mothers/caretakers and analyzed using mixed effect logistic regression models. All family food groups, except fish were perceived to be available by more than 90% of the participants. The food groups cereals/nuts/seeds, other vegetables, and legumes were considered highly affordable (80%) and were the most consumed (>75%). Households with the least educated mothers and those in the lowest wealth quintile had the lowest perception of affordability and also consumption. Consumption of foods rich in micronutrients and animal sources were significantly higher among households with higher perceived affordability, the highest wealth quintile, and with mothers who had better education. Households in Addis Ababa were generally seen to have a monotonous diet, despite the high perceived availability of different food groups within the food environment. There is a considerable difference in consumption of nutrient-rich foods across social strata, hence the cities food policies need to account for social differences in order to improve the nutritional status of the community.

Spatial Configuration and Extent Explains the Urban Heat Mitigation Potential due to Green Spaces: Analysis over Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Urban green space (UGS) is considered a mitigative intervention for urban heat. While increasing the UGS coverage is expected to reduce the urban heat, studies on the effects of UGS configuration have produced inconsistent results. To investigate this inconsistency further, this study conducted a multi-spatial and multi-temporal resolution analysis in the Addis Ababa city metropolitan area for assessing the relationship between UGS patterns and land surface temperature (LST). Landsat images were used to generate land cover and LST maps. Regression models were developed to investigate whether controlling for the proportion of the green area (PGS), fragmentation, shape, complexity, and proximity distance can affect surface temperature. Results indicated that the UGS patches with aggregated, regular and simple shapes and connectivity throughout the urban landscape were more effective in decreasing the LST as compared to the fragmented and complicated spatial patterns. This finding highlighted that in addition to increasing the amount of UGS, optimizing the spatial structure of UGS, could be an effective and useful action to mitigate the urban heat island (UHI) impacts. Changing the spatial size had a significant influence on the interconnection between LST and UGS patterns as well. It also noted that the spatial arrangement of UGS was more sensitive to spatial scales than that of its composition. The relationship between the spatial configuration of UGS and LST could be changed when applying different statistical methods. This result underlined the importance of controlling the effects of the share of green spaces when calculating the impacts of the spatial configuration of UGS on LST. Furthermore, the study highlighted that applying different statistical approaches, spatial scale, and coverage of UGS can help determine the effectiveness of the association between LST and UGS patterns. These outcomes provided new insights regarding the inconsistent findings from earlier studies, which might be a result of the different approaches considered. Indeed, these findings are expected to be of help more broadly for city planning and urban heat mitigation.

Urbanization in Small Cities and Their Significant Implications on Landscape Structures: The Case in Ethiopia

Fundamental ideas concerning urbanization are primarily based on studies performed in large cities. It is of interest to study whether or not similar phenomena take place in smaller cities. Small cities are an inherent component of urbanization, and in the future, the majority of globalization is expected to occur in small and mid-sized cities. Understanding the effects of small cities on landscape structures is, therefore, an essential component in planning city land expansion. Accordingly, this study focused on six towns of the Oromia Special Zone Surrounding Finfinnee, Ethiopia, which is broadly known to be experiencing dramatic growth. Time-series Landsat images from 1987 to 2019 with an integrated method, landscape metrics, and built-up density analysis were employed to characterize and compare the dynamics of landscape structures, urban expansion patterns, process, and overall growth status in the towns. The results highlight that all the towns experienced accelerated growth in the built-up areas and highly scattered nature in spatial growth. Landscape ecology analysis confirmed a highly fragmented urban landscape, a significant loss of natural land covers, and disconnected and complicated agro-vegetation patches in all towns, suggesting a lack of rigorous implementation of the master plan. Results also indicated that the Oromia Special Zone surrounding Finfinnee has failed to control urban sprawl to surrounding ecological sensitive areas. The study results, more broadly, highlight that the small cities would have a limited physical and demographic footprint and relatively less contribution to the national economic agglomeration; nonetheless, they can have a notable and important impact in terms of their ecological and environmental influence. Hence, the study suggests policies for monitoring such dynamics and protecting agro-environmental connectivity with particular focus on the small cities.

The Green Infrastructure Assessment System (GIAS) and Its Applications for Urban Development and Management

Adverse changes of the landscape resulting from diverse human activities have consequently caused quality decline and functional degradation of the natural landscape, endangering the natural habitats of various species. Meanwhile, technical advancements in the area of spatial analysis including GIS and remote sensing enable many kinds of easy-to-quantify landscape indices. Although some systems were developed to support assess landscape indices, developing systems for practical decision-making in spatial planning was insufficient. In this study, the GIS-based Green Infrastructure Assessment System (GIAS) was developed for integrated assessment of diverse landscape ecological values to use in spatial planning and management based upon indices sets that are mainly represented as structure, function, and dynamics of the landscape. In order to verify the effectiveness of the system, two case studies involving the city of Namyangju, northeast of Seoul, were conducted by applying GIAS to the (1) macro scale and (2) micro scale. The study results demonstrate the capability of GIAS as a planning support tool to perform concrete assessment of landscape ecological values and performance both on the macro and micro scale, and its applicability to diverse stages in spatial planning. By utilizing GIAS, frequent human-induced impacts resulting from development projects can be examined in advance, and proactive alternatives can be prepared. In addition, effective decision-making for scientific and systematic planning and management of green infrastructure can be achieved.

Urban Expansion in Ethiopia from 1987 to 2017: Characteristics, Spatial Patterns, and Driving Forces

Rapid urban growth in major cities of a country poses challenges for sustainable development. Particularly in Africa, the process of rapid urbanization is little understood and research is mostly limited to single cities. Thus, this study provides a comprehensive comparative analysis of the growth and spatial patterns of urban development in the three major cities of Ethiopia (Addis Ababa, Adama, and Hawassa) from 1987 to 2017. Also, the applicability of diffusion and coalescence theory on the evolution of these cities has been tested. Remote sensing and GIS technologies were combined with spatial metrics and morphological analysis was employed to undertake this study. The result revealed that all the studied cities experienced accelerated growth in the urbanized areas, but the cities with a larger initial urbanized size were associated with lower expansion rates. Differences in extent and direction of expansion in each city were mostly related to physical features, urban master plans, and policies, with an increase in the irregularity and dispersion of urban growth, representing strong evidence of urban sprawl. The spatiotemporal analysis confirmed that the urbanization processes of Addis Ababa and Adama were consistent and Hawassa city diverged from expectations based on diffusion and coalescence theory. In general, large cities with strong economic growth in a country fail to effectively control the scattered nature of urban growth, thus requiring aggressive policy intervention. The approach used in this study permits a deeper exploration of urban development patterns and the identification of priority areas for effective urban planning and management.

Monitoring of Landscape Transformations within Landscape Parks in Poland in the 21st Century

One of the most problematic forms of nature protection in Poland relates to landscape parks. They include the most valuable landscapes, but the areas within the landscape park still have economic uses. Therefore, the monitoring of landscape changes within landscape parks is necessary in order to properly manage these forms of protection. The main objective of the study was to monitor the scale and nature of landscape transformations within the boundaries of landscape parks in Poland during the period 2000–2018 and to assess the possibility of using the landscape change index (LCI) to monitor the intensity of landscape transformations within this type of protected area. Preliminary analyses of the transformations within all landscape parks in Poland showed an upward trend, both in terms of the number of types of identified landscape changes as well as their area. In spite of the large diversity and degree of transformation in landscape parks, several dominant processes can be observed. The largest number and area of changes during each of the analyzed periods were found in transformations within forest landscapes (temporary and permanent deforestation and forest maturation), which constitute the dominant type of land cover within most of the landscape parks. In open landscapes, changes mainly relate to afforestation and natural succession in meadows, pastures, and arable land, as well as the transformation of arable land into mining areas. Twelve case studies, covering all landscape parks in Lower Silesia, have shown that the LCI is an excellent tool for monitoring the intensity of landscape changes, but it is dependent on the accuracy of the source data. The analyses confirmed that, during the study periods, the changes in all 12 Lower Silesian landscape parks were at a low level, but their particular intensification took place in the years from 2012 to 2018. The highest LCI was found in the area where a natural disaster had occurred (air tornado), which destroyed huge areas of forest in landscape parks. After changes in the forest landscape, the most frequently identified type of change in 2006–2012 was the transformation of non-forest landscapes into forest landscapes. The main reason for such changes was the expansion of forest into abandoned arable land, meadows, and pastures. The use of the Corine Land Cover database to calculate the LCI and monitor the intensity of landscape change revealed a low usability of the database for the year 2000 and a high usability for data from 2006 to 2018.

Forest Landscape Change and Preliminary Study on Its Driving Forces in Ślęża Landscape Park (Southwestern Poland) in 1883–2013

Changes in forest landscapes have been connected with human activity for centuries and can be considered one of the main driving forces of change from a global perspective. The spatial distribution of forests changes along with the geopolitical situation, demographic changes, intensification of agriculture, urbanization, or changes in land use policy. However, due to the limited availability of historical data, the driving forces of changes in forest landscapes are most often considered in relation to recent decades, without taking long-term analyses into account. The aim of this paper is to determine the level and types of landscape changes and make preliminary study on natural and socio-economic factors on changes in forest landscapes within the protected area, Ślęża Landscape Park, and its buffer zone using long-term analyses covering a period of 140 years (1883–2013). A comparison of historical and current maps and demographic data related to three consecutive periods of time as well as natural and location factors by using the ArcGIS software allows the selected driving forces of forest landscape transformations to be analyzed. We took into account natural factors such as the elevation, slope, and exposure of the hillside and socio-economic drivers like population changes, distances to centers of municipalities, main roads, and built-up areas.

Exploring the Factors Driving Changes in Farmland within the Tumen/Tuman River Basin

Understanding farmland changes and their mechanisms is important for food security and sustainable development. This study assesses the farmland changes and their drivers within the Tumen River of China and the Tuman River within the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPR Korea) from 1991 to 2016 (1991–2000, 2000–2010, and 2010–2016). Farmland surfaces in Tumen/Tuman River Basin (TRB) for each of the years were mapped from satellite imagery using an object-based image segmentation and a support vector machine (SVM) approach. A logistic regression was applied to discern the mechanisms underlying farmland changes. Results indicate that cultivated surfaces changes within the two regions were characterized by large differences during the three time periods. The decreases of cultivated surface of −15.55 km2 (i.e., 0.55% of total cultivated surface area in 2000) and −23.61 km2 (i.e., 0.83% of total cultivated surface area in 2016) occurred in China between 1991 and 2000 and between 2010 and 2016, respectively; while an increase of 30.98 km2 (i.e., 1.09% of total cultivated surface area in 2010) was seen between 2000 and 2010. Cultivated surfaces increased within DPR Korea side over the three time periods; a marked increase, in particular, was seen between 1991 and 2000 by 443.93 km2 (i.e., 23.43% of total cultivated surface area in 2000), while farmland increased by 140.87 km2 (i.e., 6.92% of total cultivated surface area in 2010) and 180.86 km2 (i.e., 1.78% of total cultivated surface area in 2016), respectively, between 2000 and 2010 and between 2010 and 2016. We also found that expansions and contractions in farmland within both regions of the TRB were mainly influenced by topographic, soil, climatic, and distance factors, which had different importance degrees. Among these significant forces, the temperatures in the two regions were paramount positive factors on farmland changes during 1991–2016 and slope in China and precipitation in DPR Korea were the paramount negative factors affecting farmland changes, respectively. Additionally, except for between 2000 and 2010 in DPR Korea TRB region, most of the factors significantly influencing the farmland changes revealed the same positive or negative effects in different periods, because of mountainous topography. This study allows enhancing understanding of the mechanisms underlying farmland changes in the TRB.