A New Modeling Approach to the Effect of Antimicrobial Agents on Heterogeneous Microbial Populations

A within-host model on the interactions of sensitive and resistant Helicobacter pylori to antibiotic therapy considering immune response

In this work, we formulated a mathematical model to describe growth, acquisition of bacterial resistance, and immune response for Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori). The qualitative analysis revealed the existence of five equilibrium solutions: (ⅰ) An infection-free state, in which the bacterial population and immune cells are suppressed, (ⅱ) an endemic state only with resistant bacteria without immune cells, (ⅲ) an endemic state only with resistant bacteria and immune cells, (ⅳ) an endemic state of bacterial coexistence without immune cells, and (ⅴ) an endemic coexistence state with immune response. The stability analysis showed that the equilibrium solutions (ⅰ) and (ⅳ) are locally asymptotically stable, whereas the equilibria (ⅱ) and (ⅲ) are unstable. We found four threshold conditions that establish the existence and stability of equilibria, which determine when the populations of sensitive H. pylori and resistant H. pylori are controlled or eliminated, or when the infection progresses only with resistant bacteria or with both bacterial populations. The numerical simulations corroborated the qualitative analysis, and provided information on the emergence of a limit cycle that breaks the stability of the coexistence equilibrium. The results revealed that the key to controlling bacterial progression is to keep bacterial growth thresholds below 1; this can be achieved by applying an appropriate combination of antibiotics and correct stimulation of the immune response. Otherwise, when bacterial growth thresholds exceed 1, the bacterial persistence scenarios mentioned above occur.

Rapid Design of Combination Antimicrobial Therapy against Acinetobacter baumannii

Treatment of serious bacterial infections with antimicrobial agents, such as antibiotics, is a major clinical challenge, because of growing bacterial resistance to multiple agents. Combination therapy (i.e. combined dosing of more than one agent) is often used for the purpose, but its systematic design remains a challenge. To address this, we recently reported a method to mathematically model bacterial response to antimicrobial agents, and to use this model for systematic design of clinically relevant combination therapy. The method relies on (a) longitudinal data of bacterial load, estimated from optical density measurements during time-kill experiments in an automated instrument, and (b) use of these data to fit a mathematical model for combination therapy design. In this work, we studied an application of the proposed method to (a) an important bacterial pathogen (Acinetobacter baumannii) and (b) two cases of antibiotic combinations (ceftazidime / amikacin and ceftazidime / avibactam) in synchronous and asynchronous dosing, not otherwise studied to date. Following the proposed method, optical density based data of bacterial load under antibiotic exposure for 20 h were used to calibrate the mathematical model and subsequently predict outcomes of various dosing regimens with clinically relevant pharmacokinetics. Representative predictions by the mathematical model were tested in vitro in a hollow fiber infection model over 120 h. Test outcomes validated these predictions. Collectively, this study both provides guidance for design of A. baumannii infection treatments with the agents studied and underscores the broader applicability of the proposed method for design of clinically relevant combination therapy.

A birth-death model to understand bacterial antimicrobial heteroresistance from time-kill curves

Antimicrobial heteroresistance refers to the presence of different subpopulations with heterogeneous antimicrobial responses within the same bacterial isolate, so they show reduced susceptibility compared with the main population. Though it is widely accepted that heteroresistance can play a crucial role in the outcome of antimicrobial treatments, predictive Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) models accounting for bacterial heteroresistance are still scarce and need to be refined as the techniques to measure heteroresistance become standardised and consistent conclusions are drawn from data. In this work, we propose a multivariate Birth-Death (BD) model of bacterial heteroresistance and analyse its properties in detail. Stochasticity in the population dynamics is considered since heteroresistance is often characterised by low initial frequencies of the less susceptible subpopulations, those mediating AMR transmission and potentially leading to treatment failure. We also discuss the utility of the heteroresistance model for practical applications and calibration under realistic conditions, demonstrating that it is possible to infer the model parameters and heteroresistance distribution from time-kill data, i.e., by measuring total cell counts alone and without performing any heteroresistance test.

Optimizing Antimicrobial Treatment Schedules: Some Fundamental Analytical Results

This work studies fundamental questions regarding the optimal design of antimicrobial treatment protocols, using pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic mathematical models. We consider the problem of designing an antimicrobial treatment schedule to achieve eradication of a microbial infection, while minimizing the area under the time-concentration curve (AUC), which is equivalent to minimizing the cumulative dosage. We first solve this problem under the assumption that an arbitrary antimicrobial concentration profile may be chosen, and prove that the ideal concentration profile consists of a constant concentration over a finite time duration, where explicit expressions for the optimal concentration and the time duration are given in terms of the pharmacodynamic parameters. Since antimicrobial concentration profiles are induced by a dosing schedule and the antimicrobial pharmacokinetics, the 'ideal' concentration profile is not strictly feasible. We therefore also investigate the possibility of achieving outcomes which are close to those provided by the 'ideal' concentration profile, using a bolus+continuous dosing schedule, which consists of a loading dose followed by infusion of the antimicrobial at a constant rate. We explicitly find the optimal bolus+continuous dosing schedule, and show that, for realistic parameter ranges, this schedule achieves results which are nearly as efficient as those attained by the 'ideal' concentration profile. The optimality results obtained here provide a baseline and reference point for comparison and evaluation of antimicrobial treatment plans.

Rapid In Vitro Assessment of Antimicrobial Drug Effect Bridging Clinically Relevant Pharmacokinetics: A Comprehensive Methodology

Rapid in vitro assessment of antimicrobial drug efficacy under clinically relevant pharmacokinetic conditions is an essential element of both drug development and clinical use. Here, we present a comprehensive overview of a recently developed novel integrated methodology for rapid assessment of such efficacy, particularly against the emergence of resistant bacterial strains, as jointly researched by the authors in recent years. This methodology enables rapid in vitro assessment of the antimicrobial efficacy of single or multiple drugs in combination, following clinically relevant pharmacokinetics. The proposed methodology entails (a) the automated collection of longitudinal time-kill data in an optical-density instrument; (b) the processing of collected time-kill data with the aid of a mathematical model to determine optimal dosing regimens under clinically relevant pharmacokinetics for single or multiple drugs; and (c) in vitro validation of promising dosing regimens in a hollow fiber system. Proof-of-concept of this methodology through a number of in vitro studies is discussed. Future directions for the refinement of optimal data collection and processing are discussed.

Deciphering longitudinal optical-density measurements to guide clinical dosing regimen design: A model-based approach

BACKGROUND

Model-based analysis of longitudinal optical density measurements from a bacterial suspension exposed to antibiotics has been proposed as a potentially efficient and effective method for extracting useful information to improve the individualized design of treatments for bacterial infections. To that end, the authors developed in previous work a mathematical modeling framework that can use such measurements for design of effective dosing regimens.

OBJECTIVES

Here we further explore ways to extract information from longitudinal optical density measurements to predict bactericidal efficacy of clinically relevant antibiotic exposures.

METHODS

Longitudinal optical density measurements were collected in an automated instrument where Acinetobacter baumannii, ATCC BAA747, was exposed to ceftazidime concentrations of 1, 4, 16, 64, and 256 mg/L and to ceftazidime/amikacin concentrations of 1/0.5, 4/2, 16/8, 64/32, and 256/128 (mg/L)/(mg/L) over 20 h. Calibrated conversion of measurements produced total (both live and dead) bacterial cell concentration data (CFU/mL equivalent) over time. Model-based data analysis predicted the bactericidal efficacy of ceftazidime and of ceftazidime/amikacin (at ratio 2:1) for periodic injection every 8 h and subsequent exponential decline with half-life of 2.5 h. Predictions were experimentally tested in an in vitro hollow-fiber infection model, using peak concentrations of 60 and 150 mg/L for injected ceftazidime and of 40/20 (mg/L)/(mg/L) for injected ceftazidime/amikacin.

RESULTS

Model-based analysis predicted low (<62%) confidence in clinically relevant suppression of the bacterial population by periodic injections of ceftazidime alone, even at high peak concentrations. Conversely, analysis predicted high (>95%) confidence in bacterial suppression by periodic injections of ceftazidime/amikacin combinations at a wide range of peak concentrations ratioed at 2:1. Both predictions were experimentally confirmed in an in vitro hollow fiber infection model, where ceftazidime was periodically injected at peak concentrations 60 and 150 mg/L (with predicted suppression confidence 38% and 59%, respectively) and a combination of ceftazidime/amikacin was periodically injected at peak concentrations 40/20 (mg/L)/(mg/L) (with predicted suppression confidence 98%).

CONCLUSIONS

The paper highlights the potential of clinicians using the proposed mathematical framework to determine the utility of different antibiotics to suppress a patient-specific isolate. Additional studies will be needed to consolidate and expand the utility of the proposed method.

Discerning in vitro pharmacodynamics from OD measurements: A model-based approach

Time-kill experiments can discern the pharmacodynamics of infectious bacteria exposed to antibiotics in vitro, and thus help guide the design of effective therapies for challenging clinical infections. This task is resource-limited, therefore typically bypassed in favor of empirical shortcuts. The resource limitation could be addressed by continuously assessing the size of a bacterial population under antibiotic exposure using optical density measurements. However, such measurements count both live and dead cells and are therefore unsuitable for declining populations of live cells. To fill this void, we develop here a model-based method that infers the count of live cells in a bacterial population exposed to antibiotics from continuous optical-density measurements of both live and dead cells combined. The method makes no assumptions about the underlying mechanisms that confer resistance and is widely applicable. Use of the method is demonstrated by an experimental study on Acinetobacter baumannii exposed to levofloxacin.

A survey of within-host and between-hosts modelling for antibiotic resistance

Antibiotic resistance is a global public health problem which has the attention of many stakeholders including clinicians, the pharmaceutical industry, researchers and policy makers. Despite the existence of many studies, control of resistance transmission has become a rather daunting task as the mechanisms underlying resistance evolution and development are not fully known. Here, we discuss the mechanisms underlying antibiotic resistance development, explore some treatment strategies used in the fight against antibiotic resistance and consider recent findings on collateral susceptibilities amongst antibiotic classes. Mathematical models have proved valuable for unravelling complex mechanisms in biology and such models have been used in the quest of understanding the development and spread of antibiotic resistance. While assessing the importance of such mathematical models, previous systematic reviews were interested in investigating whether these models follow good modelling practice. We focus on theoretical approaches used for resistance modelling considering both within and between host models as well as some pharmacodynamic and pharmakokinetic approaches and further examine the interaction between drugs and host immune response during treatment with antibiotics. Finally, we provide an outlook for future research aimed at modelling approaches for combating antibiotic resistance.

Send more data: a systematic review of mathematical models of antimicrobial resistance

Background

Antimicrobial resistance is a global health problem that demands all possible means to control it. Mathematical modelling is a valuable tool for understanding the mechanisms of AMR development and spread, and can help us to investigate and propose novel control strategies. However, it is of vital importance that mathematical models have a broad utility, which can be assured if good modelling practice is followed.

Objective

The objective of this study was to provide a comprehensive systematic review of published models of AMR development and spread. Furthermore, the study aimed to identify gaps in the knowledge required to develop useful models.

Methods

The review comprised a comprehensive literature search with 38 selected studies. Information was extracted from the selected papers using an adaptation of previously published frameworks, and was evaluated using the TRACE good modelling practice guidelines.

Results

None of the selected papers fulfilled the TRACE guidelines. We recommend that future mathematical models should: a) model the biological processes mechanistically, b) incorporate uncertainty and variability in the system using stochastic modelling, c) include a sensitivity analysis and model external and internal validation.

Conclusion

Many mathematical models of AMR development and spread exist. There is still a lack of knowledge about antimicrobial resistance, which restricts the development of useful mathematical models.

A bargaining approach for resolving the tradeoff between beneficial and harmful drug responses

In medical treatments, a fundamental dilemma often arises: on the one hand, an increase in a drug's dose could lead to a stronger, therapeutic treatment response, but on the other hand this could also lead to increased toxicity risks. In this paper, we propose to solve this dilemma using a Nash bargaining approach. To do so, we reformulate the tradeoff problem in an equivalent form as a dilemma between a drug's beneficial response and the drug's safety, where the dilemma then becomes a two-objective problem with safety and response as the objectives. Using a general receptor response model, we show that the set of all feasible outcomes associated with a drug's treatment is characterized as a convex set, which allows the dilemma to be solved as a bargaining problem between the two objectives. The Nash bargaining solution (NBS) is found in closed form, and interesting properties associated with the solution are presented. In particular, it is shown that one can interpret the NBS as corresponding to a treatment giving the maximal expected safe treatment response associated with the drug. Moreover, the condition when the NBS coincides with the maxmin solution for the two objectives is derived. Two approaches to control the NBS solution are then presented: first, by means of assigning bargaining powers to objectives; second, by means of assigning an upper-bound on the drug's dosage. The obtained NBS are compared with the dosage returning maximal drug response efficiency.

Mathematical modelling of the antibiotic-induced morphological transition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Here we formulate a mechanistic mathematical model to describe the growth dynamics of P. aeruginosa in the presence of the β-lactam antibiotic meropenem. The model is mechanistic in the sense that carrying capacity is taken into account through the dynamics of nutrient availability rather than via logistic growth. In accordance with our experimental results we incorporate a sub-population of cells, differing in morphology from the normal bacillary shape of P. aeruginosa bacteria, which we assume have immunity from direct antibiotic action. By fitting this model to experimental data we obtain parameter values that give insight into the growth of a bacterial population that includes different cell morphologies. The analysis of two parameters sets, that produce different long term behaviour, allows us to manipulate the system theoretically in order to explore the advantages of a shape transition that may potentially be a mechanism that allows P. aeruginosa to withstand antibiotic effects. Our results suggest that inhibition of this shape transition may be detrimental to bacterial growth and thus suggest that the transition may be a defensive mechanism implemented by bacterial machinery. In addition to this we provide strong theoretical evidence for the potential therapeutic strategy of using antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) in combination with meropenem. This proposed combination therapy exploits the shape transition as AMPs induce cell lysis by forming pores in the cytoplasmic membrane, which becomes exposed in the spherical cells.

Distinguishing Antimicrobial Models with Different Resistance Mechanisms via Population Pharmacodynamic Modeling

Semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modeling is increasingly used for antimicrobial drug development and optimization of dosage regimens, but systematic simulation-estimation studies to distinguish between competing PD models are lacking. This study compared the ability of static and dynamic in vitro infection models to distinguish between models with different resistance mechanisms and support accurate and precise parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) were performed for models with one susceptible bacterial population without (M1) or with a resting stage (M2), a one population model with adaptive resistance (M5), models with pre-existing susceptible and resistant populations without (M3) or with (M4) inter-conversion, and a model with two pre-existing populations with adaptive resistance (M6). For each model, 200 datasets of the total bacterial population were simulated over 24h using static antibiotic concentrations (256-fold concentration range) or over 48h under dynamic conditions (dosing every 12h; elimination half-life: 1h). Twelve-hundred random datasets (each containing 20 curves for static or four curves for dynamic conditions) were generated by bootstrapping. Each dataset was estimated by all six models via population PD modeling to compare bias and precision. For M1 and M3, most parameter estimates were unbiased (<10%) and had good imprecision (<30%). However, parameters for adaptive resistance and inter-conversion for M2, M4, M5 and M6 had poor bias and large imprecision under static and dynamic conditions. For datasets that only contained viable counts of the total population, common statistical criteria and diagnostic plots did not support sound identification of the true resistance mechanism. Therefore, it seems advisable to quantify resistant bacteria and characterize their MICs and resistance mechanisms to support extended simulations and translate from in vitro experiments to animal infection models and ultimately patients.

Mathematical models are increasingly used for analysis and interpretation of in vitro efficacy results of antimicrobial drugs. Various models are employed in the scientific literature and it seems that they are equally able to describe the observed data. The aim of the present study was to compare different models in various experimental designs and with different resistance mechanisms of bacteria. For that purpose we have generated experimental data through Monte-Carlo simulations and then used six different mathematical models to analyze these results. We showed that statistical comparison of models did not allow determining which was the true mechanism of resistance, i.e. the one used for the simulation step. Moreover mathematical parameters for bacterial resistance were estimated with bias and with a low precision except for the simpler cases. This suggests that the choice of the mathematical model for data analysis should be guided by experimental characterization of the bacterial mechanism of resistance.

Modeling Heterogeneous Bacterial Populations Exposed to Antibiotics: The Logistic-Dynamics Case

In typical in vitro tests for clinical use or development of antibiotics, samples from a bacterial population are exposed to an antibiotic at various concentrations. The resulting data can then be used to build a mathematical model suitable for dosing regimen design or for further development. For bacterial populations that include resistant subpopulations-an issue that has reached alarming proportions-building such a model is challenging. In prior work, we developed a related modeling framework for such heterogeneous bacterial populations following linear dynamics when exposed to an antibiotic. We extend this framework to the case of logistic dynamics, common among strongly resistant bacterial strains. Explicit formulas are developed that can be easily used in parameter estimation and subsequent dosing regimen design under realistic pharmacokinetic conditions. A case study using experimental data from the effect of an antibiotic on a gram-negative bacterial population exemplifies the usefulness of the proposed approach.

Bacterial fitness shapes the population dynamics of antibiotic-resistant and -susceptible bacteria in a model of combined antibiotic and anti-virulence treatment

Bacterial resistance to antibiotic treatment is a huge concern: introduction of any new antibiotic is shortly followed by the emergence of resistant bacterial isolates in the clinic. This issue is compounded by a severe lack of new antibiotics reaching the market. The significant rise in clinical resistance to antibiotics is especially problematic in nosocomial infections, where already vulnerable patients may fail to respond to treatment, causing even greater health concern. A recent focus has been on the development of anti-virulence drugs as a second line of defence in the treatment of antibiotic-resistant infections. This treatment, which weakens bacteria by reducing their virulence rather than killing them, should allow infections to be cleared through the body׳s natural defence mechanisms. In this way there should be little to no selective pressure exerted on the organism and, as such, a predominantly resistant population should be less likely to emerge. However, before the likelihood of resistance to these novel drugs emerging can be predicted, we must first establish whether such drugs can actually be effective. Many believe that anti-virulence drugs would not be powerful enough to clear existing infections, restricting their potential application to prophylaxis. We have developed a mathematical model that provides a theoretical framework to reveal the circumstances under which anti-virulence drugs may or may not be successful. We demonstrate that by harnessing and combining the advantages of antibiotics with those provided by anti-virulence drugs, given infection-specific parameters, it is possible to identify treatment strategies that would efficiently clear bacterial infections, while preventing the emergence of antibiotic-resistant subpopulations. Our findings strongly support the continuation of research into anti-virulence drugs and demonstrate that their applicability may reach beyond infection prevention.

Development of antibiotic regimens using graph based evolutionary algorithms

This paper examines the use of evolutionary algorithms in the development of antibiotic regimens given to production animals. A model is constructed that combines the lifespan of the animal and the bacteria living in the animal's gastro-intestinal tract from the early finishing stage until the animal reaches market weight. This model is used as the fitness evaluation for a set of graph based evolutionary algorithms to assess the impact of diversity control on the evolving antibiotic regimens. The graph based evolutionary algorithms have two objectives: to find an antibiotic treatment regimen that maintains the weight gain and health benefits of antibiotic use and to reduce the risk of spreading antibiotic resistant bacteria. This study examines different regimens of tylosin phosphate use on bacteria populations divided into Gram positive and Gram negative types, with a focus on Campylobacter spp. Treatment regimens were found that provided decreased antibiotic resistance relative to conventional methods while providing nearly the same benefits as conventional antibiotic regimes. By using a graph to control the information flow in the evolutionary algorithm, a variety of solutions along the Pareto front can be found automatically for this and other multi-objective problems.

MODELING ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE IN PREGNANT WOMAN AND FETUS

Infection caused by antibiotic-resistant pathogens is one of global public health problems. Many factors contribute to the emergence and spread of these pathogens. A model which describes the transmission dynamics of susceptible and resistant bacteria in a pregnant woman and the fetus is presented. Detailed qualitative analysis about positivity, boundedness, global stability and uniform persistence of the model is carried out. Numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis show that antibiotic input has potential impact for neonatal drug resistance. Our results show that the resistant bacteria in baby mainly come from antibiotics which are wrongly-used during gestational period, or foods containing antibiotic residues.

Contribution of mathematical modeling to the fight against bacterial antibiotic resistance

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Modeling of antibiotic resistance in pathogenic bacteria responsible for human disease has developed considerably over the last decade. Herein, we summarize the main published studies to illustrate the contribution of models for understanding both within-host and population-based phenomena. We then suggest possible topics for future studies.

RECENT FINDINGS

Model building of bacterial resistance has involved epidemiologists, biologists and modelers with two different objectives. First, modeling has helped largely in identifying and understanding the factors and biological phenomena responsible for the emergence and spread of resistant strains. Second, these models have become important decision support tools for medicine and public health.

SUMMARY

Major improvements of models in the coming years should take into account specific pathogen characteristics (resistance mechanisms, multiple colonization phenomena, cooperation and competition among species) and better description of the contacts associated with transmission risk within populations.

A novel approach to pharmacodynamic assessment of antimicrobial agents: new insights to dosing regimen design

Pharmacodynamic modeling has been increasingly used as a decision support tool to guide dosing regimen selection, both in the drug development and clinical settings. Killing by antimicrobial agents has been traditionally classified categorically as concentration-dependent (which would favor less fractionating regimens) or time-dependent (for which more frequent dosing is preferred). While intuitive and useful to explain empiric data, a more informative approach is necessary to provide a robust assessment of pharmacodynamic profiles in situations other than the extremes of the spectrum (e.g., agents which exhibit partial concentration-dependent killing). A quantitative approach to describe the interaction of an antimicrobial agent and a pathogen is proposed to fill this unmet need. A hypothetic antimicrobial agent with linear pharmacokinetics is used for illustrative purposes. A non-linear functional form (sigmoid Emax) of killing consisted of 3 parameters is used. Using different parameter values in conjunction with the relative growth rate of the pathogen and antimicrobial agent concentration ranges, various conventional pharmacodynamic surrogate indices (e.g., AUC/MIC, Cmax/MIC, %T>MIC) could be satisfactorily linked to outcomes. In addition, the dosing intensity represented by the average kill rate of a dosing regimen can be derived, which could be used for quantitative comparison. The relevance of our approach is further supported by experimental data from our previous investigations using a variety of gram-negative bacteria and antimicrobial agents (moxifloxacin, levofloxacin, gentamicin, amikacin and meropenem). The pharmacodynamic profiles of a wide range of antimicrobial agents can be assessed by a more flexible computational tool to support dosing selection.

Mathematical modeling to characterize the inoculum effect

Killing by beta-lactams is well known to be reduced against a dense bacterial population, commonly known as the inoculum effect. However, the underlying mechanism of this phenomenon is not well understood. We proposed a semi-mechanistic mathematical model to account for the reduced in vitro killing observed. Time-kill studies were performed with 4 baseline inocula (ranging from approximately 1 × 10(5) to 1 × 10(8) CFU/ml) of Escherichia coli ATCC 25922 (MIC, 2 mg/liter). Constant but escalating piperacillin concentrations used ranged from 0.25× to 256× MIC. Serial samples were taken over 24 h to quantify viable bacterial burden, and all the killing profiles were mathematically modeled. The inoculum effect was attributed to a reduction of effective drug concentration available for bacterial killing, which was expressed as a function of the baseline inoculum. Biomasses associated with different inocula were examined using a colorimetric method. Despite identical drug-pathogen combinations, the baseline inoculum had a significant impact on bacterial killing. Our proposed mathematical model was unbiased and reasonable in capturing all 28 killing profiles collectively (r(2) = 0.88). Biomass was found to be significantly more after 24 h with a baseline inoculum of 1 × 10(8) CFU/ml, compared to one where the initial inoculum was 1 × 10(5) CFU/ml (P = 0.002). Our results corroborated previous observations that in vitro killing by piperacillin was significantly reduced against a dense bacterial inoculum. This phenomenon can be reasonably captured by our proposed mathematical model, and it may improve prediction of bacterial response to various drug exposures in future investigations.

Escherichia coli population heterogeneity: subpopulation dynamics at super-optimal temperatures

In the past years, we explored the dynamics of Escherichia coli K12 at super-optimal temperatures under static and dynamic temperature conditions (Van Derlinden et al. (2008b, 2009, 2010). Disturbed sigmoid growth curves, i.e., a sequence of growth, inactivation and re-growth, were observed, especially close to the maximum growth temperature. Based on the limited set of experiments (i.e., 2 static temperatures and 2 dynamic temperature profiles), the irregular growth curves were explained by postulating the co-existence of two subpopulations: a more resistant, growing population and a temperature sensitive, inactivating population. In this study, the dynamics of the two subpopulations are studied rigorously at 11 constant temperature levels in the region between 45°C and 46°C, with at least five repetitions per temperature. At all temperatures, the total population follows a sequence of growth, inactivation and re-growth. The sequence of different stages in the growth curves can be explained by the two subpopulations. The first growth phase and the inactivation phase reflect the presence of the sensitive subpopulation. Hereafter, the population's dynamics are dominated by the growth of the resistant subpopulation. Generally, cell counts are characterized by a large variability. The dynamics of the two subpopulations are carefully analyzed using a heterogeneous subpopulation type model to study the relation between the kinetic parameters of the two subpopulations and temperature, and to evaluate if the fraction d of resistant cells varies with temperature. Results indicate that the growth rate of the sensitive subpopulation decreases with increasing temperature within the range of 45-46°C. Furthermore, results point in the direction that the duration of this initial growth phase is approximately constant, i.e., around 2h. Possibly, the stress resistance of the cells decreases after a certain period because the metabolism is fully adapted to exponential growth. Also, the growth rate of the resistant subpopulation decreases with increasing temperature. Due to the extreme variability in the cell density data, derivation of accurate relations was not possible. From the heterogeneous model implementations, given the experimental set-up, both a constant d value and a temperature dependent d value seem plausible.

In vitro pharmacodynamic models to determine the effect of antibacterial drugs

In vitro pharmacodynamic (PD) models are used to obtain useful quantitative information on the effect of either single drugs or drug combinations against bacteria. This review provides an overview of in vitro PD models and their experimental implementation. Models are categorized on the basis of whether the drug concentration remains constant or changes and whether there is a loss of bacteria from the system. Further subdifferentiation is based on whether bacterial loss involves dilution of the medium or is associated with dialysis or diffusion. For comprehension of the underlying principles, experimental settings are simplified and schematically illustrated, including the simulations of various in vivo routes of administration. The different model types are categorized and their (dis)advantages discussed. The application of in vitro models to special organs, infections and pathogens is comprehensively presented. Finally, the relevance and perspectives of in vitro investigations in drug discovery and clinical research are elucidated and discussed.

On mathematical theory of selection: continuous time population dynamics

Mathematical theory of selection is developed within the frameworks of general models of inhomogeneous populations with continuous time. Methods that allow us to study the distribution dynamics under natural selection and to construct explicit solutions of the models are developed. All statistical characteristics of interest, such as the mean values of the fitness or any trait can be computed effectively, and the results depend in a crucial way on the initial distribution. The developed theory provides an effective method for solving selection systems; it reduces the initial complex model to a special system of ordinary differential equations (the escort system). Applications of the method to the Price equations are given; the solutions of some particular inhomogeneous Malthusian, Ricker and logistic-like models used but not solved in the literature are derived in explicit form.

A model of the complex response of Staphylococcus aureus to methicillin

It is widely accepted that beta-lactam antimicrobials cause cell death through a mechanism that interferes with cell wall synthesis. Later studies have also revealed that beta-lactams modify the autolysis function (the natural process of self-exfoliation of the cell wall) of cells. The dynamic equilibrium between growth and autolysis is perturbed by the presence of the antimicrobial. Studies with Staphylococcus aureus to determine the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) have revealed complex responses to methicillin exposure. The organism exhibits four qualitatively different responses: homogeneous sensitivity, homogeneous resistance, heterogeneous resistance and the so-called 'Eagle-effect'. A mathematical model is presented that links antimicrobial action on the molecular level with the overall response of the cell population to antimicrobial exposure. The cell population is modeled as a probability density function F(x,t) that depends on cell wall thickness x and time t. The function F(x,t) is the solution to a Fokker-Planck equation. The fixed point solutions are perturbed by the antimicrobial load and the advection of F(x,t) depends on the rates of cell wall synthesis, autolysis and the antimicrobial concentration. Solutions of the Fokker-Planck model are presented for all four qualitative responses of S. aureus to methicillin exposure.

On the spread of epidemics in a closed heterogeneous population

Heterogeneity is an important property of any population experiencing a disease. Here we apply general methods of the theory of heterogeneous populations to the simplest mathematical models in epidemiology. In particular, an SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) model is formulated and analyzed when susceptibility to or infectivity of a particular disease is distributed. It is shown that a heterogeneous model can be reduced to a homogeneous model with a nonlinear transmission function, which is given in explicit form. The widely used power transmission function is deduced from the model with distributed susceptibility and infectivity with the initial gamma-distribution of the disease parameters. Therefore, a mechanistic derivation of the phenomenological model, which is believed to mimic reality with high accuracy, is provided. The equation for the final size of an epidemic for an arbitrary initial distribution of susceptibility is found. The implications of population heterogeneity are discussed, in particular, it is pointed out that usual moment-closure methods can lead to erroneous conclusions if applied for the study of the long-term behavior of the models.

Mechanism-based pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic modeling of antimicrobial drug effects

Mathematical modeling of drug effects maximizes the information gained from an experiment, provides further insight into the mechanisms of drug effects, and allows for simulations in order to design studies or even to derive clinical treatment strategies. We reviewed modeling of antimicrobial drug effects and show that most of the published mathematical models can be derived from one common mechanism-based PK-PD model premised on cell growth and cell killing processes. The general sigmoid Emax model applies to cell killing and the various parameters can be related to common pharmacodynamics, which enabled us to synthesize and compare the different parameter estimates for a total of 24 antimicrobial drugs from published literature. Furthermore, the common model allows the parameters of these models to be related to the MIC and to a common set of PK-PD indices. Theoretically, a high Hill coefficient and a low maximum kill rate indicate so-called time-dependent antimicrobial effects, whereas a low Hill coefficient and a high maximum kill rate indicate so-called concentration-dependent effects, as illustrated in the garenoxacin and meropenem examples. Finally, a new equation predicting the time to microorganism eradication after repeated drug doses was derived that is based on the area under the kill-rate curve.

The rising impact of mathematical modelling in epidemiology: antibiotic resistance research as a case study

Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases has gradually become part of public health decision-making in recent years. However, the developing status of modelling in epidemiology and its relationship with other relevant scientific approaches have never been assessed quantitatively. Herein, using antibiotic resistance as a case study, 60 published models were analysed. Their interactions with other scientific fields are reported and their citation impact evaluated, as well as temporal trends. The yearly number of antibiotic resistance modelling publications increased significantly between 1990 and 2006. This rise cannot be explained by the surge of interest in resistance phenomena alone. Moreover, modelling articles are, on average, among the most frequently cited third of articles from the journal in which they were published. The results of this analysis, which might be applicable to other emerging public health problems, demonstrate the growing interest in mathematical modelling approaches to evaluate antibiotic resistance.

Modeling of microbial population responses to time-periodic concentrations of antimicrobial agents

We present the development and first experimental validation of a mathematical modeling framework for predicting the eventual response of heterogeneous (distributed-resistance) microbial populations to antimicrobial agents at time-periodic (hence pharmacokinetically realistic) concentrations. Our mathematical model predictions are validated in a hollow-fiber in vitro experimental infection model. They are in agreement with the threshold levofloxacin exposure necessary to suppress resistance development of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in a murine thigh infection model. Predictions made by the proposed mathematical modeling framework can offer guidance for targeted testing of promising regimens. This can aid the development and clinical use of antimicrobial agents that combat microbial resistance.