Connectivity and resilience of coral reef metapopulations in marine protected areas: matching empirical efforts to predictive needs

Sink-source connectivity for restocking of Pinna nobilis in the western Mediterranean Sea

The critically endangered endemic bivalve Pinna nobilis from the Mediterranean Sea suffered a sudden population decline after a mass mortality event in early autumn 2016. Conservation efforts aimed at preventing extinction included safeguarding resistant individuals and implementing a breeding plan to contribute to the repopulation of the species. This study utilized a model combining Lagrangian dispersion and connectivity analyses to pinpoint optimal restocking sites in the Western Mediterranean. Our approach allowed to identify locations capable of sustaining and generating larvae for broader repopulation in key areas of the Western Mediterranean Sea prior to the mass mortality event. Six important repopulation locations from Murcia, Valencia and Balearic Islands were selected for reintroduction efforts. The results obtained in this study show how the network could be self-sufficient and able to self-replenish itself of recruits. Overall, our work can be used to direct the reintroduction of resistant animals in the Western Mediterranean Sea.

Larval connectivity of the invasive blue crabs Callinectes sapidus and Portunus segnis in the Mediterranean Sea: A step toward improved cross border management

The two invasive blue crabs, Callinectes sapidus and Portunus segnis have spread rapidly in the Mediterranean and no data exists on the connectivity of populations. Determining the source and recruitment areas is crucial to prioritize where population control measures should be put into immediate action. We simulated the dispersal of blue crab larvae using a Lagrangian model coupled at high resolution to estimate the potential connectivity of blue crab populations over a 3-year period. Our results reveal that the main areas at risk are the Spanish, French, Italian Tyrrhenian and Sardinian coasts for Callinectes sapidus with high populations connectivity. Tunisia and Egypt represent high auto recruitment zones for Portunus segnis restricted to the central and western basins. This study provides an overview of the connectivity between populations and will help define priority areas that require the urgent implementation of management measures.

Biophysical models resolution affects coral connectivity estimates

Estimating connectivity between coral reefs is essential to inform reef conservation and restoration. Given the vastness of coral reef ecosystems, connectivity can only be simulated with biophysical models whose spatial resolution is often coarser than the reef scale. Here, we assess the impact of biophysical models resolution on connectivity estimates by comparing the outputs of five different setups of the same model with resolutions ranging from 250 m to 4 km. We show that increasing the model resolution around reefs yields more complex and less directional dispersal patterns. With a fine-resolution model, connectivity graphs have more connections but of weaker strength. The resulting community structure therefore shows larger clusters of well-connected reefs. Virtual larvae also tend to stay longer close to their source reef with a fine-resolution model, leading to an increased local retention and self-recruitment for species with a short pre-competency period. Overall, only about half of the reefs with the largest connectivity indicator values are similar for the finest and coarsest resolution models. Our results suggest that reef management recommendations should only be made at scales coarser than the model resolution. Reef-scale recommendations can hence only be made with models not exceeding about 500 m resolution.

Reactive persistence, spatial management, and conservation of metapopulations: An application to seagrass restoration

Assessing the conditions for persistence of spatially structured populations, especially those that are exploited by humans or threatened by global change, is of critical importance to inform management and conservation efforts. Observations for entire metapopulations are usually incomplete and rarely, if ever, sufficiently long to deduce population persistence from spatial patterns of abundance. Instead, insights based on metapopulation theory are often used for interpreting the demographic trajectories of real populations and for informing management decisions. The classical theoretical tool used to assess conditions for metapopulation persistence is the "invasibility criterion," which characterizes the asymptotic, or long-term, stability of a small colonizing population. Essentially, when the linear operator governing the metapopulation dynamics of an invasion event has a positive eigenvalue, recovery and resistance to extinction (resilience) are implied. The converse, however, is not necessarily the case-an invasion may grow over multiple generations, even when the eigenvalues indicate that extinction will eventually occur, a situation referred to here as "reactive persistence." For the management, restoration, and conservation of real metapopulations subject to continual disturbance, this transient behavior is often more relevant than the asymptotic behavior over long time scales. We develop the theoretical tools for assessing reactive persistence, demonstrating how the conditions for asymptotic and reactive persistence differ in both the patch-occupancy models suited to many terrestrial populations and those where local patch extinctions can be disregarded in the dynamics, often suited to marine species. After presenting the mathematical basis for generalizing the invasibility criterion to include reactive persistence, we illustrate how these concepts and tools can be applied in practice, using as a case study the population ecology and restoration of the seagrass Zostera muelleri (Irmisch ex Ascherson, 1867) in the Port of Gladstone in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area Australia. It is shown how the analysis of the transient dynamics of the Z. muelleri metapopulation can be used to guide restoration efforts. Moreover, it is demonstrated that these reactive persistence concepts provide a more appropriate basis for site prioritization for restoration interventions than traditional stability analysis.

Timing and probability of arrival for sea lice dispersing between salmon farms

Sea lice are a threat to the health of both wild and farmed salmon and an economic burden for salmon farms. With a free-living larval stage, sea lice can disperse tens of kilometres in the ocean between salmon farms, leading to connected sea louse populations that are difficult to control in isolation. In this paper, we develop a simple analytical model for the dispersal of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) between two salmon farms. From the model, we calculate the arrival time distribution of sea lice dispersing between farms, as well as the level of cross-infection of sea lice. We also use numerical flows from a hydrodynamic model, coupled with a particle tracking model, to directly calculate the arrival time of sea lice dispersing between two farms in the Broughton Archipelago, British Columbia, in order to fit our analytical model and find realistic parameter estimates. Using the parametrized analytical model, we show that there is often an intermediate interfarm spacing that maximizes the level of cross-infection between farms, and that increased temperatures will lead to increased levels of cross-infection.

Development of microsatellites markers for the deep coral Madracis myriaster (Pocilloporidae: Anthozoa)

In 2013 Colombia made an important step towards the construction and management of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) by establishing the first Deep Corals National Park (PNNCP). Inside this MPA, the coral Madracis myriaster (Cnidaria: Pocilloporidae) was found as the main reef builder, offering habitat for many species of fish and invertebrates. In order to improve the study of deep-sea coral habitats, their connectivity and prospective management, nine new genetic markers (microsatellites) were developed for M. myriaster and tested in samples from PNNCP. We present the assessment of these markers, with a specificity for the deep coral, and its prospective use in future analysis for the PNNCP and other areas in the Caribbean and the Atlantic, where M. myriaster is reported. We also include an additional taxonomic analysis performed on samples of M. myriaster using scanning electron microscopy.

Ecological connectivity of the marine protected area network in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak: Current knowledge and management needs

Marine protected areas (MPAs) have become a key component of conservation and fisheries management to alleviate anthropogenic pressures. For MPA networks to efficiently promote persistence and recovery of populations, ecological connectivity, i.e. dispersal and movement of organisms and material across ecosystems, needs to be taken into account. To improve the ecological coherence of MPA networks, there is hence a need to evaluate the connectivity of species spreading through active migration and passive dispersal. We reviewed knowledge on ecological connectivity in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak in the northeast Atlantic and present available information on species-specific dispersal and migration distances. Studies on genetic connectivity are summarised and discussed in relation to dispersal-based analyses. Threats to ecological connectivity, limiting dispersal of populations and lowering the resilience to environmental change, were examined. Additionally, a review of studies evaluating the ecological coherence of MPA networks in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak was performed, and suggestions for future evaluations to meet management needs are presented.

Local Overfishing Patterns Have Regional Effects on Health of Coral, and Economic Transitions Can Promote Its Recovery

Overfishing has the potential to severely disrupt coral reef ecosystems worldwide, while harvesting at more sustainable levels instead can boost fish yield without damaging reefs. The dispersal abilities of reef species mean that coral reefs form highly connected environments, and the viability of reef fish populations depends on spatially explicit processes such as the spillover effect and unauthorized harvesting inside marine protected areas. However, much of the literature on coral conservation and management has only examined overfishing on a local scale, without considering how different spatial patterns of fishing levels can affect reef health both locally and regionally. Here, we simulate a coupled human-environment model to determine how coral and herbivorous reef fish respond to overfishing across multiple spatial scales. We find that coral and reef fish react in opposite ways to habitat fragmentation driven by overfishing, and that a potential spillover effect from marine protected areas into overfished patches helps coral populations far less than it does reef fish. We also show that ongoing economic transitions from fishing to tourism have the potential to revive fish and coral populations over a relatively short timescale, and that large-scale reef recovery is possible even if these transitions only occur locally. Our results show the importance of considering spatial dynamics in marine conservation efforts and demonstrate the ability of economic factors to cause regime shifts in human-environment systems.

Evolution and connectivity influence the persistence and recovery of coral reefs under climate change in the Caribbean, Southwest Pacific, and Coral Triangle

Corals are experiencing unprecedented decline from climate change-induced mass bleaching events. Dispersal not only contributes to coral reef persistence through demographic rescue but can also hinder or facilitate evolutionary adaptation. Locations of reefs that are likely to survive future warming therefore remain largely unknown, particularly within the context of both ecological and evolutionary processes across complex seascapes that differ in temperature range, strength of connectivity, network size, and other characteristics. Here, we used eco-evolutionary simulations to examine coral adaptation to warming across reef networks in the Caribbean, the Southwest Pacific, and the Coral Triangle. We assessed the factors associated with coral persistence in multiple reef systems to understand which results are general and which are sensitive to particular geographic contexts. We found that evolution can be critical in preventing extinction and facilitating the long-term recovery of coral communities in all regions. Furthermore, the strength of immigration to a reef (destination strength) and current sea surface temperature robustly predicted reef persistence across all reef networks and across temperature projections. However, we found higher initial coral cover, slower recovery, and more evolutionary lag in the Coral Triangle, which has a greater number of reefs and more larval settlement than the other regions. We also found the lowest projected future coral cover in the Caribbean. These findings suggest that coral reef persistence depends on ecology, evolution, and habitat network characteristics, and that, under an emissions stabilization scenario (RCP 4.5), recovery may be possible over multiple centuries.

An integrative investigation of sensory organ development and orientation behavior throughout the larval phase of a coral reef fish

The dispersal of marine larvae determines the level of connectivity among populations, influences population dynamics, and affects evolutionary processes. Patterns of dispersal are influenced by both ocean currents and larval behavior, yet the role of behavior remains poorly understood. Here we report the first integrated study of the ontogeny of multiple sensory systems and orientation behavior throughout the larval phase of a coral reef fish-the neon goby, Elacatinus lori. We document the developmental morphology of all major sensory organs (lateral line, visual, auditory, olfactory, gustatory) together with the development of larval swimming and orientation behaviors observed in a circular arena set adrift at sea. We show that all sensory organs are present at hatch and increase in size (or number) and complexity throughout the larval phase. Further, we demonstrate that most larvae can orient as early as 2 days post-hatch, and they swim faster and straighter as they develop. We conclude that sensory organs and swimming abilities are sufficiently developed to allow E. lori larvae to orient soon after hatch, suggesting that early orientation behavior may be common among coral reef fishes. Finally, we provide a framework for testing alternative hypotheses for the orientation strategies used by fish larvae, laying a foundation for a deeper understanding of the role of behavior in shaping dispersal patterns in the sea.

Local connections and the larval competency strongly influence marine metapopulation persistence

The relationship between metapopulation stability and connectivity has long been investigated in ecology, however, most of these studies are focused on theoretical species and habitat networks, having limited ability to capture the complexity of real-world metapopulations. Network analysis became more important in modeling connectivity, but it is still uncertain which network metrics are reliable predictors of persistence. Here we quantify the impact of connectivity and larval life history on marine metapopulation persistence across the complex seascape of southeast Australia. Our work coupled network-based approaches and eigenanalysis to efficiently estimate metapopulation-wide persistence and the subpopulation contributions. Larval dispersal models were used to quantify species-specific metapopulation connectivity for five important fisheries species, each summarized as a migration matrix. Eigenanalysis helped to reveal metapopulation persistence and determine the importance of node-level network properties. Across metapopulations, the number of local outgoing connections was found to have the largest impact on metapopulation persistence, implying these hub subpopulations may be the most influential in real-world metapopulations. Results also suggest the length of the pre-competency period may be the most influential parameter on metapopulation persistence. Finally, we identified two major hot spots of local connectivity in southeast Australia, each contributing strongly to multispecies persistence. Managers and ecologists would benefit by employing similar approaches in making more efficient and more ecologically informed decisions and focusing more on local connectivity patterns and larval competency characteristics to better understand and protect real-world metapopulation persistence. Practically this could mean developing more marine protected areas at shorter distances and supporting collaborative research into the early life histories of the species of interest.

Minimum size limits and the reproductive value of numerous, young, mature female fish

Fisheries management relies on various catch and effort controls to preserve spawning stock biomass and maximize sustainable yields while limiting fishery impacts on marine ecosystems. These include species-specific minimum or maximum size limits to protect either small non-reproductive subadults, a portion of reproductively mature adults, or large highly fecund individuals. Protecting size classes of mature fish is expected to yield a viable source of larvae for replenishing populations and reduce the risk of recruitment overfishing, yet size-specific recruitment contributions have rarely been assessed empirically. Here, we apply genetic parentage analysis to measure the reproductive success of a size-structured population of a commercially important species of coral grouper (Plectropomus maculatus-Serranidae) in no-take marine reserves (NTMRs) in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Australia. Although the per capita reproductive success of individual fish increases rapidly with body length, the numerous young mature female fish, below the minimum size limit (MSL) (38 cm total length), were responsible for generating disproportionately large contributions (36%) towards larval replenishment of both fished and reserve reefs. Our findings indicate that MSLs are an effective harvest control measure to safeguard a portion of the spawning stock biomass for coral grouper and supplement recruitment subsidies assured from NTMRs.

Quantifying dispersal variability among nearshore marine populations

Dispersal drives diverse processes from population persistence to community dynamics. However, the amount of temporal variation in dispersal and its consequences for metapopulation dynamics is largely unknown for organisms with environmentally driven dispersal (e.g., many marine larvae, arthropods and plant seeds). Here, we used genetic parentage analysis to detect larval dispersal events in a common coral reef fish, Amphiprion clarkii, along 30 km of coastline consisting of 19 reef patches in Ormoc Bay, Leyte, Philippines. We quantified variation in the dispersal kernel across seven years (2012-2018) and monsoon seasons with 71 parentage assignments from 791 recruits and 1,729 adults. Connectivity patterns differed significantly among years and seasons in the scale and shape but not in the direction of dispersal. This interannual variation in dispersal kernels introduced positive temporal covariance among dispersal routes that theory predicts is likely to reduce stochastic metapopulation growth rates below the growth rates expected from only a single or a time-averaged connectivity estimate. The extent of variation in mean dispersal distance observed here among years is comparable in magnitude to the differences across reef fish species. Considering dispersal variation will be an important avenue for further metapopulation and metacommunity research across diverse taxa.

Population genetic structure of the great star coral, Montastraea cavernosa, across the Cuban archipelago with comparisons between microsatellite and SNP markers

Coral reef habitats surrounding Cuba include relatively healthy, well-developed shallow and mesophotic (30–150 m) scleractinian communities at the cross-currents of the Tropical Western Atlantic (TWA). However, Cuba’s coral communities are not immune to the declines observed throughout the TWA, and there is limited information available regarding genetic connectivity, diversity, and structure among these populations. This represents an immense gap in our understanding of coral ecology and population dynamics at both local and regional scales. To address this gap, we evaluated the population genetic structure of the coral Montastraea cavernosa across eight reef sites surrounding Cuba. Colonies were genotyped using nine microsatellite markers and > 9,000 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers generated using the 2bRAD approach to assess fine-scale genetic structure across these sites. Both the microsatellite and SNP analyses identified patterns of genetic differentiation among sample populations. While the microsatellite analyses did not identify significant genetic structure across the seven shallow M. cavernosa sampling sites, the SNP analyses revealed significant pairwise population differentiation, suggesting that differentiation is greater between eastern and western sites. This study provides insight into methodological differences between microsatellite and SNP markers including potential trade-offs between marker-specific biases, sample size, sequencing costs, and the ability to resolve subtle patterns of population genetic structure. Furthermore, this study suggests that locations in western Cuba may play important roles in this species’ regional metapopulation dynamics and therefore may merit incorporation into developing international management efforts in addition to the local management the sites receive.

Fine-scale seascape genomics of an exploited marine species, the common cockle Cerastoderma edule, using a multimodelling approach

Population dynamics of marine species that are sessile as adults are driven by oceanographic dispersal of larvae from spawning to nursery grounds. This is mediated by life-history traits such as the timing and frequency of spawning, larval behaviour and duration, and settlement success. Here, we use 1725 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to study the fine-scale spatial genetic structure in the commercially important cockle species Cerastoderma edule and compare it to environmental variables and current-mediated larval dispersal within a modelling framework. Hydrodynamic modelling employing the NEMO Atlantic Margin Model (AMM15) was used to simulate larval transport and estimate connectivity between populations during spawning months (April-September), factoring in larval duration and interannual variability of ocean currents. Results at neutral loci reveal the existence of three separate genetic clusters (mean F ST = 0.021) within a relatively fine spatial scale in the north-west Atlantic. Environmental association analysis indicates that oceanographic currents and geographic proximity explain over 20% of the variance observed at neutral loci, while genetic variance (71%) at outlier loci was explained by sea surface temperature extremes. These results fill an important knowledge gap in the management of a commercially important and overexploited species, bringing us closer to understanding the role of larval dispersal in connecting populations at a fine geographic scale.

Spatiotemporal variations in density and biomass of rocky reef fish in a biogeographic climatic transition zone: trends over 9 years, inside and outside the only nearshore no-take marine-protected area on the southern Brazilian coast

Biogeographical transition zones are important areas to investigate evolutionary ecological questions, but long-term population monitoring is needed to better understand ecological processes that govern population variations in such edge environments. The southernmost Brazilian rocky reefs are the southern limit of distribution for 96% of the tropical ichthyofauna of the western Atlantic. The Arvoredo Marine Biological Reserve is the only nearshore no-take marine-protected area (MPA) located in this transition zone. The main aim was to investigate how the populations of rocky reef fish species vary in density and biomass in space and over time, inside and outside the Arvoredo MPA. This study presents results based on a 9 year (2008-2017) underwater visual census monitoring study to evaluate the density and biomass of key fish species. Variations in density and biomass were detected for most species. Factors and mechanisms that may have influenced spatial variation are habitat structural complexity and protection from fisheries. Temporal variations, otherwise, may have been influenced by species proximity to their distributional limit, in synergy with density-dependent mechanisms and stochastic winter temperature oscillations. The MPAs harbour higher density and biomass for most species. Nonetheless, a prominent temporal decline in the recruitment of Epinephelus marginatus calls into question the continuous effectiveness of the MPA.

Incorporating the Connectivity Timescale in Metapopulation Partitioning

The often complex spatial patterns of propagule dispersal across a metapopulation present a challenge for species management, motivating efforts to represent the connectivity in simpler but meaningful ways. The reduction of complexity may be achieved by partitioning the metapopulation into groups of highly connected patches called "subpopulations." To have relevance for management, these subunits must be defined from ecological or evolutionary principles. The probabilities of dispersal-mediated propagule interchange between sites, commonly organized into a connectivity matrix, entail a timescale that is usually ignored in subpopulation analyses, limiting their utility and possibly leading to misinterpretation and wrong management decisions. Recognition of the essentially dynamical role played by metapopulation connectivity naturally leads to the incorporation of the generational timescale into the partitioning analysis. An algorithm is proposed to determine the subpopulations-both their cardinality and their composition-as a function of the generational timescale and of a limiting probability of connection, illustrated with a novel empirical estimate of mesopelagic connectivity. The proposed framework allows the unambiguous determination of the timescales corresponding to dispersal barriers and the identification of effective ecological units across the spectrum of management-relevant time horizons.

Parentage analyses identify local dispersal events and sibling aggregations in a natural population of Millepora hydrocorals, a free-spawning marine invertebrate

Dispersal is a critical process for the persistence and productivity of marine populations. For many reef species, there is increasing evidence that local demography and self-recruitment have major consequences on their genetic diversity and adaptation to environmental change. Yet empirical data of dispersal patterns in reef-building species remain scarce. Here, we document the first genetic estimates of self-recruitment and dispersal distances in a free-spawning marine invertebrate, the hydrocoral Millepora cf. platyphylla. Using twelve microsatellite markers, we gathered genotypic information from 3,160 georeferenced colonies collected over 27,000 m² of a single reef in three adjacent habitats in Moorea, French Polynesia; the mid slope, upper slope, and back reef. Although the adult population was predominantly clonal (85% were clones), our parentage analysis revealed a moderate self-recruitment rate with a minimum of 8% of sexual propagules produced locally. Assigned offspring often settled at <10 m from their parents and dispersal events decrease with increasing geographic distance. There were no discrepancies between the dispersal distances of offspring assigned to parents belonging to clonal versus nonclonal genotypes. Interhabitat dispersal events via cross-reef transport were also detected for sexual and asexual propagules. Sibship analysis showed that full siblings recruit nearby on the reef (more than 40% settled at <30 m), resulting in sibling aggregations. Our findings highlight the importance of self-recruitment together with clonality in stabilizing population dynamics, which may ultimately enhance local sustainability and resilience to disturbance.

Spatially explicit modeling of metapopulation dynamics of broadcast spawners and stabilizing/destabilizing effects of heterogeneity of quality across local habitats

Many coastal invertebrate species are broadcast spawners. These species have a highly sedentary adult stage and disperse by oceanic transport of planktonic larvae. One commercially important group of broadcast spawners is abalones, which live in suitable habitat patches of rock reefs that are discretely distributed. Because of these life-history and habitat characteristics, abalones tend to exhibit a metapopulation structure. Despite fisheries management and the release of juveniles, wild populations of broadcast spawners have undergone dramatic reductions in density due to overexploitation, which has been partly attributed to a failure to account for spatial structure. To clarify the relationship between the persistence of a metapopulation and the bottleneck that occurs during reproduction and dispersal processes caused by spatial structure, we developed a spatially explicit metapopulation model accounting for the effects of both life history and fishery pressure. By analyzing the model, we derived a metric to evaluate metapopulation quality as the leading eigenvalue of a non-negative matrix (the landscape matrix). Using this measure, we clarified that the effect of spatial structure on metapopulation stability is explained well by the mean and variance of parameter values across patches under the condition in which the heterogeneity of the metapopulation network is weak. In particular, the presence of both a higher average and higher variance of quality in the landscape could indicate stable fishery stocks under certain conditions. For example, when the decline in the mean longevity of local patch due to the fishery pressures gradually diminishes, the rescue effects by good patches would work more effectively than the negative effect of bad patches and then the stabilizing effect of spatial heterogeneity could be observed in a metapopulation. Furthermore, optimal patch characteristics for the improvement of quality strongly depend on specific parameter values. For example, when adult fertility is improved, a patch with higher "source" ability is more suitable. In contrast, when the settlement success of planktonic larvae is improved or fishery pressure is reduced, a patch with higher "buffer" ability is more suitable for the improvement of fishery management.

Larval connectivity patterns of the North Indo-West Pacific coral reefs

Coral reefs of the North Indo-West Pacific provide important ecosystem services to the region but are subjected to multiple local and global threats. Strengthening management measures necessitate understanding the variability of larval connectivity and bridging global connectivity models to local scales. An individual-based Lagrangian biophysical model was used to simulate connectivity between coral reefs for three organisms with different early life history characteristics: a coral (Acropora millepora), a sea urchin (Tripneustes gratilla), and a reef fish (Epinephelus sp). Connectivity metrics and reef clusters were computed from the settlement probability matrices. Fitted power law functions derived from the dispersal kernels provided relative probabilities of connection given only the distance between reefs, and demonstrated that 95% of the larvae across organisms settled within a third of their maximum settlement distances. The magnitude of the connectivity metric values of reef cells were sensitive to differences both in the type of organism and temporal variability. Seasonal variability of connections was more dominant than interannual variability. However, despite these differences, the moderate to high correlation of metrics between organisms and seasonal matrices suggest that the spatial patterns are relatively similar between reefs. A cluster analysis based on the Bray-Curtis Dissimilarity of sink and source connections synthesized the inherent variability of these multiple large connectivity matrices. Through this, similarities in regional connectivity patterns were determined at various cluster sizes depending on the scale of interest. The validity of the model is supported by 1) the simulated dispersal kernels being within the range of reported parentage analysis estimates; and, 2) the clusters that emerged reflect the dispersal barriers implied by previously published population genetics studies. The tools presented here (dispersal kernels, temporal variability maps and reef clustering) can be used to include regional patterns of connectivity into the spatial management of coral reefs.

Successful validation of a larval dispersal model using genetic parentage data

Larval dispersal is a critically important yet enigmatic process in marine ecology, evolution, and conservation. Determining the distance and direction that tiny larvae travel in the open ocean continues to be a challenge. Our current understanding of larval dispersal patterns at management-relevant scales is principally and separately informed by genetic parentage data and biological-oceanographic (biophysical) models. Parentage datasets provide clear evidence of individual larval dispersal events, but their findings are spatially and temporally limited. Biophysical models offer a more complete picture of dispersal patterns at regional scales but are of uncertain accuracy. Here, we develop statistical techniques that integrate these two important sources of information on larval dispersal. We then apply these methods to an extensive genetic parentage dataset to successfully validate a high-resolution biophysical model for the economically important reef fish species Plectropomus maculatus in the southern Great Barrier Reef. Our results demonstrate that biophysical models can provide accurate descriptions of larval dispersal at spatial and temporal scales that are relevant to management. They also show that genetic parentage datasets provide enough statistical power to exclude poor biophysical models. Biophysical models that included species-specific larval behaviour provided markedly better fits to the parentage data than assuming passive behaviour, but incorrect behavioural assumptions led to worse predictions than ignoring behaviour altogether. Our approach capitalises on the complementary strengths of genetic parentage datasets and high-resolution biophysical models to produce an accurate picture of larval dispersal patterns at regional scales. The results provide essential empirical support for the use of accurately parameterised biophysical larval dispersal models in marine spatial planning and management.

Our understanding of marine fish larva dispersal is currently limited by sparse data and unvalidated models; combining DNA parentage matches with an oceanographic model of fish larvae on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef allows the authors to ground-truth a vital tool for sustainably managing coral reef fisheries.

Accounting for ocean connectivity and hydroclimate in fish recruitment fluctuations within transboundary metapopulations

Marine resources stewardships are progressively becoming more receptive to an effective incorporation of both ecosystem and environmental complexities into the analytical frameworks of fisheries assessment. Understanding and predicting marine fish production for spatially and demographically complex populations in changing environmental conditions is however still a difficult task. Indeed, fisheries assessment is mostly based on deterministic models that lack realistic parameterizations of the intricate biological and physical processes shaping recruitment, a cornerstone in population dynamics. We use here a large metapopulation of a harvested fish, the European hake (Merluccius merluccius), managed across transnational boundaries in the northwestern Mediterranean, to model fish recruitment dynamics in terms of physics-dependent drivers related to dispersal and survival. The connectivity among nearby subpopulations is evaluated by simulating multi-annual Lagrangian indices of larval retention, imports, and self-recruitment. Along with a proxy of the regional hydroclimate influencing early life stages survival, we then statistically determine the relative contribution of dispersal and hydroclimate for recruitment across contiguous management units. We show that inter-annual variability of recruitment is well reproduced by hydroclimatic influences and synthetic connectivity estimates. Self-recruitment (i.e., the ratio of retained locally produced larvae to the total number of incoming larvae) is the most powerful metric as it integrates the roles of retained local recruits and immigrants from surrounding subpopulations and is able to capture circulation patterns affecting recruitment at the scale of management units. We also reveal that the climatic impact on recruitment is spatially structured at regional scale due to contrasting biophysical processes not related to dispersal. Self-recruitment calculated for each management unit explains between 19% and 32.9% of the variance of recruitment variability, that is much larger than the one explained by spawning stock biomass alone, supporting an increase of consideration of connectivity processes into stocks assessment. By acknowledging the structural and ecological complexity of marine populations, this study provides the scientific basis to link spatial management and temporal assessment within large marine metapopulations. Our results suggest that fisheries management could be improved by combining information of physical oceanography (from observing systems and operational models), opening new opportunities such as the development of short-term projections and dynamic spatial management.

Reverse engineering field-derived vertical distribution profiles to infer larval swimming behaviors

Biophysical models are well-used tools for predicting the dispersal of marine larvae. Larval behavior has been shown to influence dispersal, but how to incorporate behavior effectively within dispersal models remains a challenge. Mechanisms of behavior are often derived from laboratory-based studies and therefore, may not reflect behavior in situ. Here, using state-of-the-art models, we explore the movements that larvae must undertake to achieve the vertical distribution patterns observed in nature. Results suggest that behaviors are not consistent with those described under the tidally synchronized vertical migration (TVM) hypothesis. Instead, we show (i) a need for swimming speed and direction to vary over the tidal cycle and (ii) that, in some instances, larval swimming cannot explain observed vertical patterns. We argue that current methods of behavioral parameterization are limited in their capacity to replicate in situ observations of vertical distribution, which may cause dispersal error to propagate over time, due to advective differences over depth and demonstrate an alternative to laboratory-based behavioral parameterization that encompasses the range of environmental cues that may be acting on planktic organisms.

High-frequency sampling and piecewise models reshape dispersal kernels of a common reef coral

Models of dispersal potential are required to predict connectivity between populations of sessile organisms. However, to date, such models do not allow for time-varying rates of acquisition and loss of competence to settle and metamorphose, and permit only a limited range of possible survivorship curves. We collect high-resolution observations of coral larval survival and metamorphosis, and apply a piecewise modeling approach that incorporates a broad range of temporally varying rates of mortality and loss of competence. Our analysis identified marked changes in competence loss and mortality rates, the timing of which implicates developmental failure and depletion of energy reserves. Asymmetric demographic rates suggest more intermediate-range dispersal, less local retention, and less long-distance dispersal than predicted by previously employed non-piecewise models. Because vital rates are likely temporally asymmetric, at least for nonfeeding broadcast-spawned larvae, piecewise analysis of demographic rates will likely yield more reliable predictions of dispersal potential.

Restoring oysters to urban estuaries: Redefining habitat quality for eastern oyster performance near New York City

Restoring and conserving coastal resilience faces increasing challenges under current climate change predictions. Oyster restoration, in particular, faces threats from alterations in precipitation, warming water temperatures, and urbanization of coastlines that dramatically change salinity patterns, foster the proliferation and spread disease, and disrupt habitat connectivity, respectively. New York City (NYC) coastal waters, once home to a booming oyster fishery for eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica), are now nearly devoid of live oyster reefs. Oyster restoration in urban estuaries is motivated by the synergistic ecosystem benefits this native keystone species can deliver. Recent surveys have documented substantial remnant populations of adult oysters in the upper low salinity zone of the Hudson/Raritan Estuary (HRE) near Tarrytown, NY. This study assessed fitness-related performance across the HRE salinity gradient to evaluate habitat suitability on an estuarine scale. Oysters were hatchery-produced from wild, moderate-salinity broodstock, then outplanted for measurement of growth, survival, reproduction and disease prevalence over two years. Survival was generally higher in the lower salinity river sites and in the higher salinity Jamaica Bay sites relative to mesohaline NYC harbor sites. Growth rate was highest in Jamaica Bay and had high variation among other sites. Surprisingly, the highest proportion of individuals with sex-differentiated gametes and the highest average gonad maturation index was found at a low salinity site. Consistent with the advanced gametogenesis measured in experimental animals at low salinity, annual wild recruitment was documented near the low salinity remnant population in each of five monitored years. These results suggest that the remnant HRE oyster population is a robust, self-sustaining population that can be leveraged to support restoration of subpopulations in other parts of the estuary, but further research is required to determine if the mesohaline and near-ocean reaches of the HRE can support the full oyster life cycle.

Quantifying dispersal between marine protected areas by a highly mobile species, the bottlenose dolphin, Tursiops truncatus

The functioning of marine protected areas (MPAs) designated for marine megafauna has been criticized due to the high mobility and dispersal potential of these taxa. However, dispersal within a network of small MPAs can be beneficial as connectivity can result in increased effective population size, maintain genetic diversity, and increase robustness to ecological and environmental changes making populations less susceptible to stochastic genetic and demographic effects (i.e., Allee effect). Here, we use both genetic and photo-identification methods to quantify gene flow and demographic dispersal between MPAs of a highly mobile marine mammal, the bottlenose dolphin Tursiops truncatus. We identify three populations in the waters of western Ireland, two of which have largely nonoverlapping core coastal home ranges and are each strongly spatially associated with specific MPAs. We find high site fidelity of individuals within each of these two coastal populations to their respective MPA. We also find low levels of demographic dispersal between the populations, but it remains unclear whether any new gametes are exchanged between populations through these migrants (genetic dispersal). The population sampled in the Shannon Estuary has a low estimated effective population size and appears to be genetically isolated. The second coastal population, sampled outside of the Shannon, may be demographically and genetically connected to other coastal subpopulations around the coastal waters of the UK. We therefore recommend that the methods applied here should be used on a broader geographically sampled dataset to better assess this connectivity.

Auto-correlated directional swimming can enhance settlement success and connectivity in fish larvae

Larvae of coastal-marine fishes have been shown repeatedly to swim directionally in the pelagic environment. Yet, biophysical models of larval dispersal typically impose a Simple Random Walk (SRW) algorithm to simulate non-directional movement in the open ocean. Here we investigate the use of a Correlated Random Walk (CRW) algorithm; imposing auto-correlated directional swimming onto simulated larvae within a high-resolution 3D biophysical model of the Gulf of Aqaba, the Red Sea. Our findings demonstrate that implementation of auto-correlated directional swimming can result in an increase of up to ×2.7 in the estimated success rate of larval-settlement, as well as an increase in the extent of connectivity. With accumulating empirical support for the capacity for directional-swimming during the pelagic phase, we propose that CRW should be applied in biophysical models of dispersal by coastal marine fish-larvae.

Inverse approach to estimating larval dispersal reveals limited population connectivity along 700 km of wave-swept open coast

Demographic connectivity is fundamental to the persistence and resilience of metapopulations, but our understanding of the link between reproduction and recruitment is notoriously poor in open-coast marine populations. We provide the first evidence of high local retention and limited connectivity among populations spanning 700 km along an open coast in an upwelling system. Using extensive field measurements of fecundity, population size and settlement in concert with a Bayesian inverse modelling approach, we estimated that, on average, Petrolisthes cinctipes larvae disperse only 6.9 km (±25.0 km s.d.) from natal populations, despite spending approximately six weeks in an open-coast system that was once assumed to be broadly dispersive. This estimate differed substantially from our prior dispersal estimate (153.9 km) based on currents and larval duration and behaviour, revealing the importance of employing demographic data in larval dispersal estimates. Based on this estimate, we predict that demographic connectivity occurs predominantly among neighbouring populations less than 30 km apart. Comprehensive studies of larval production, settlement and connectivity are needed to advance an understanding of the ecology and evolution of life in the sea as well as to conserve ecosystems. Our novel approach provides a tractable framework for addressing these questions for species occurring in discrete coastal populations.

Exploring the larval fish community of the central Red Sea with an integrated morphological and molecular approach

An important aspect of population dynamics for coral reef fishes is the input of new individuals from the pelagic larval pool. However, the high biodiversity and the difficulty of identifying larvae of closely related species represent obstacles to more fully understanding these populations. In this study, we combined morphology and genetic barcoding (Cytochrome Oxidase I gene) to characterize the seasonal patterns of the larval fish community at two sites in close proximity to coral reefs in the central-north Red Sea: one shallower inshore location (50 m depth) and a nearby site located in deeper and more offshore waters (~ 500 m depth). Fish larvae were collected using oblique tows of a 60 cm-bongo net (500 μm mesh size) every month for one year (2013). During the warmer period of the year (June-November), the larval fish stock was comparable between sampling sites. However, during the colder months, abundances were higher in the inshore than in the offshore waters. Taxonomic composition and temporal variation of community structure differed notably between sites, potentially reflecting habitat differences, reproductive patterns of adults, and/or advective processes in the area. Eleven out of a total of 62 recorded families comprised 69–94% of the fish larval community, depending on sampling site and month. Richness of taxa was notably higher in the inshore station compared to the offshore, particularly during the colder period of the year and especially for the gobiids and apogonids. Two mesopelagic taxa (Vinciguerria sp. and Benthosema spp.) comprised an important component of the larval community at the deeper site with only a small and sporadic occurrence in the shallower inshore waters. Our data provide an important baseline reference for the larval fish communities of the central Red Sea, representing the first such study from Saudi Arabian waters.

Incorporating larval dispersal into MPA design for both conservation and fisheries

Larval dispersal by ocean currents is a critical component of systematic marine protected area (MPA) design. However, there is a lack of quantitative methods to incorporate larval dispersal in support of increasingly diverse management objectives, including local population persistence under multiple types of threats (primarily focused on larval retention within and dispersal between protected locations) and benefits to unprotected populations and fisheries (primarily focused on larval export from protected locations to fishing grounds). Here, we present a flexible MPA design approach that can reconcile multiple such potentially conflicting management objectives by balancing various associated treatments of larval dispersal information. We demonstrate our approach based on alternative dispersal patterns, combinations of threats to populations, management objectives, and two different optimization strategies (site vs. network-based). Our outcomes highlight a consistently high effectiveness in selecting priority locations that are self-replenishing, inter-connected, and/or important larval sources. We find that the opportunity to balance these three dispersal attributes flexibly can help not only to prevent meta-population collapse, but also to ensure effective fisheries recovery, with average increases in the number of recruits at fishing grounds at least two times higher than achieved by standard habitat-based or ad-hoc MPA designs. Future applications of our MPA design approach should therefore be encouraged, specifically where management tools other than MPAs are not feasible.

Contrasting patterns of population structure and gene flow facilitate exploration of connectivity in two widely distributed temperate octocorals

Connectivity is an important component of metapopulation dynamics in marine systems and can influence population persistence, migration rates and conservation decisions associated with Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). In this study, we compared the genetic diversity, gene flow and population structure of two octocoral species, Eunicella verrucosa and Alcyonium digitatum, in the northeast Atlantic (ranging from the northwest of Ireland and the southern North Sea, to southern Portugal), using two panels of 13 and 8 microsatellite loci, respectively. Our results identified regional genetic structure in E. verrucosa partitioned between populations from southern Portugal, northwest Ireland and Britain/France; subsequent hierarchical analysis of population structure also indicated reduced gene flow between southwest Britain and northwest France. However, over a similar geographical area, A. digitatum showed little evidence of population structure, suggesting high gene flow and/or a large effective population size; indeed, the only significant genetic differentiation detected in A. digitatum occurred between North Sea samples and those from the English Channel/northeast Atlantic. In both species the vast majority of gene flow originated from sample sites within regions, with populations in southwest Britain being the predominant source of contemporary exogenous genetic variants for the populations studied. Overall, historical patterns of gene flow appeared more complex, though again southwest Britain appeared to be an important source of genetic variation for both species. Our findings have major conservation implications, particularly for E. verrucosa, a protected species in UK waters and listed by the IUCN as ‘Vulnerable’, and for the designation and management of European MPAs.

Fluctuations in population fecundity drive variation in demographic connectivity and metapopulation dynamics

Demographic connectivity is vital to sustaining metapopulations yet often changes dramatically through time due to variation in the production and dispersal of offspring. However, the relative importance of variation in fecundity and dispersal in determining the connectivity and dynamics of metapopulations is poorly understood due to the paucity of comprehensive spatio-temporal data on these processes for most species. We quantified connectivity in metapopulations of a marine foundation species (giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera) across 11 years and approximately 900 km of coastline by estimating population fecundity with satellite imagery and propagule dispersal using a high-resolution ocean circulation model. By varying the temporal complexity of different connectivity measures and comparing their ability to explain observed extinction-colonization dynamics, we discovered that fluctuations in population fecundity, rather than fluctuations in dispersal, are the dominant driver of variation in connectivity and contribute substantially to metapopulation recovery and persistence. Thus, for species with high variability in reproductive output and modest variability in dispersal (most plants, many animals), connectivity measures ignoring fluctuations in fecundity may overestimate connectivity and likelihoods of persistence, limiting their value for understanding and conserving metapopulations. However, we demonstrate how connectivity measures can be simplified while retaining utility, validating a practical solution for data-limited systems.

High Interannual Variability in Connectivity and Genetic Pool of a Temperate Clingfish Matches Oceanographic Transport Predictions

Adults of most marine benthic and demersal fish are site-attached, with the dispersal of their larval stages ensuring connectivity among populations. In this study we aimed to infer spatial and temporal variation in population connectivity and dispersal of a marine fish species, using genetic tools and comparing these with oceanographic transport. We focused on an intertidal rocky reef fish species, the shore clingfish Lepadogaster lepadogaster, along the southwest Iberian Peninsula, in 2011 and 2012. We predicted high levels of self-recruitment and distinct populations, due to short pelagic larval duration and because all its developmental stages have previously been found near adult habitats. Genetic analyses based on microsatellites countered our prediction and a biophysical dispersal model showed that oceanographic transport was a good explanation for the patterns observed. Adult sub-populations separated by up to 300 km of coastline displayed no genetic differentiation, revealing a single connected population with larvae potentially dispersing long distances over hundreds of km. Despite this, parentage analysis performed on recruits from one focal site within the Marine Park of Arrábida (Portugal), revealed self-recruitment levels of 2.5% and 7.7% in 2011 and 2012, respectively, suggesting that both long- and short-distance dispersal play an important role in the replenishment of these populations. Population differentiation and patterns of dispersal, which were highly variable between years, could be linked to the variability inherent in local oceanographic processes. Overall, our measures of connectivity based on genetic and oceanographic data highlight the relevance of long-distance dispersal in determining the degree of connectivity, even in species with short pelagic larval durations.

First genealogy for a wild marine fish population reveals multigenerational philopatry

Natal philopatry, the return of individuals to their natal area for reproduction, has advantages and disadvantages for animal populations. Natal philopatry may generate local genetic adaptation, but it may also increase the probability of inbreeding that can compromise persistence. Although natal philopatry is well documented in anadromous fishes, marine fish may also return to their birth site to spawn. How philopatry shapes wild fish populations is, however, unclear because it requires constructing multigenerational pedigrees that are currently lacking for marine fishes. Here we present the first multigenerational pedigree for a marine fish population by repeatedly genotyping all individuals in a population of the orange clownfish (Amphiprion percula) at Kimbe Island (Papua New Guinea) during a 10-y period. Based on 2927 individuals, our pedigree analysis revealed that longitudinal philopatry was recurrent over five generations. Progeny tended to settle close to their parents, with related individuals often sharing the same colony. However, successful inbreeding was rare, and genetic diversity remained high, suggesting occasional inbreeding does not impair local population persistence. Local reproductive success was dependent on the habitat larvae settled into, rather than the habitat they came from. Our study suggests that longitudinal philopatry can influence both population replenishment and local adaptation of marine fishes. Resolving multigenerational pedigrees during a relatively short period, as we present here, provides a framework for assessing the ability of marine populations to persist and adapt to accelerating climate change.

Large-Scale Genotyping-by-Sequencing Indicates High Levels of Gene Flow in the Deep-Sea Octocoral Swiftia simplex (Nutting 1909) on the West Coast of the United States

Deep-sea corals are a critical component of habitat in the deep-sea, existing as regional hotspots for biodiversity, and are associated with increased assemblages of fish, including commercially important species. Because sampling these species is so difficult, little is known about the connectivity and life history of deep-sea octocoral populations. This study evaluates the genetic connectivity among 23 individuals of the deep-sea octocoral Swiftia simplex collected from Eastern Pacific waters along the west coast of the United States. We utilized high-throughput restriction-site associated DNA (RAD)-tag sequencing to develop the first molecular genetic resource for the deep-sea octocoral, Swiftia simplex. Using this technique we discovered thousands of putative genome-wide SNPs in this species, and after quality control, successfully genotyped 1,145 SNPs across individuals sampled from California to Washington. These SNPs were used to assess putative population structure across the region. A STRUCTURE analysis as well as a principal coordinates analysis both failed to detect any population differentiation across all geographic areas in these collections. Additionally, after assigning individuals to putative population groups geographically, no significant F_ST values could be detected (F_ST for the full data set 0.0056), and no significant isolation by distance could be detected (p = 0.999). Taken together, these results indicate a high degree of connectivity and potential panmixia in S. simplex along this portion of the continental shelf.

A synthesis of genetic connectivity in deep-sea fauna and implications for marine reserve design

With anthropogenic impacts rapidly advancing into deeper waters, there is growing interest in establishing deep-sea marine protected areas (MPAs) or reserves. Reserve design depends on estimates of connectivity and scales of dispersal for the taxa of interest. Deep-sea taxa are hypothesized to disperse greater distances than shallow-water taxa, which implies that reserves would need to be larger in size and networks could be more widely spaced; however, this paradigm has not been tested. We compiled population genetic studies of deep-sea fauna and estimated dispersal distances for 51 studies using a method based on isolation-by-distance slopes. Estimates of dispersal distance ranged from 0.24 km to 2028 km with a geometric mean of 33.2 km and differed in relation to taxonomic and life-history factors as well as several study parameters. Dispersal distances were generally greater for fishes than invertebrates with the Mollusca being the least dispersive sampled phylum. Species that are pelagic as adults were more dispersive than those with sessile or sedentary lifestyles. Benthic species from soft-substrate habitats were generally less dispersive than species from hard substrate, demersal or pelagic habitats. As expected, species with pelagic and/or feeding (planktotrophic) larvae were more dispersive than other larval types. Many of these comparisons were confounded by taxonomic or other life-history differences (e.g. fishes being more dispersive than invertebrates) making any simple interpretation difficult. Our results provide the first rough estimate of the range of dispersal distances in the deep sea and allow comparisons to shallow-water assemblages. Overall, dispersal distances were greater for deeper taxa, although the differences were not large (0.3-0.6 orders of magnitude between means), and imbalanced sampling of shallow and deep taxa complicates any simple interpretation. Our analyses suggest the scales of dispersal and connectivity for reserve design in the deep sea might be comparable to or slightly larger than those in shallow water. Deep-sea reserve design will need to consider the enormous variety of taxa, life histories, hydrodynamics, spatial configuration of habitats and patterns of species distributions. The many caveats of our analyses provide a strong impetus for substantial future efforts to assess connectivity of deep-sea species from a variety of habitats, taxonomic groups and depth zones.