Comparison of contemporary risk scores for predicting outcomes after surgery for active infective endocarditis

Epidemiological Profile and Mortality of Infective Endocarditis Over the Past Decade: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 133 Studies

Infective endocarditis (IE) is an increasingly prevalent condition with relatively high mortality, whose epidemiology has become more complex with an aging population, an increased number of comorbidities, and an increasing incidence of health-care associated IE. Epidemiological data on the causative microorganisms of IE, prevalence of involvement of the different cardiac valves, and IE-associated mortality are clinically relevant. Eligible studies were identified through a systematic search of PubMed/MEDLINE database from 2010 to 2020, and a random effects model meta-analysis was conducted. 133 studies comprising 132,584 patients from six continents were included in this systematic review. The most common causative agents were Staphylococci species in 36% of cases, followed by Streptococci species (26%) and Enterococci species (10%). Out of studies that provided further speciation, the predominant species was Staphylococcus aureus with an incidence of 29%, followed by Viridans group Streptococcus (12%). The short-term mortality rate (defined as in-hospital or 30-day mortality) was 17%. The highest mortality was reported in studies from Latin America with a mean mortality rate of 33% and the lowest mortality was reported in studies from Oceania at 13%. The aortic valve was the most commonly affected valve (46%), followed closely by the mitral valve (43%). The prevalence of tricuspid valve IE was 7% and multivalvular IE occurred in 14% of cases. Our study highlights a shift in epidemiological profile of IE over the last decade with S. aureus identified as the most common causative microorganism of IE. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42024602342.

Comparisons of Risk Scores for Infective Endocarditis Surgery: A Meta-Analysis

While multiple scoring systems exist to predict mortality in cardiac surgery, their utility in infective endocarditis (IE) remains uncertain, prompting this study to compare their prognostic accuracy. We conducted a comprehensive review using Ovid Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Data were pooled using Open-Meta[Analyst] software, and calibration analysis was performed with Review Manager 5.4. Among 620 articles identified, 570 were screened, leading to 15 included studies. Twelve risk scores were analyzed for operative mortality discrimination in IE surgery, with the area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.64 to 0.83. Among the IE-specific risk scores, AUCs (95% confidence interval) were highest for ANCLA (Anemia, NYHA class IV, critical state, large intracardiac destruction, surgery on thoracic aorta) 0.838 (0.803-0.873), AEPEI (Association pour l'Etude et la Prevention de l'Endocadite Infectieuse) 0.764 (0.726-0.802), RISK-E (Risk Endocarditis) (0.752 (0.662-0.842) and APORTEI (Análisis de los factores PROnósticos en el Tratamiento quirúrgico de la Endocarditis Infecciosa) 0.750 (0.726-0.774) scores. Regarding traditional risk scores, EuroSCORE II performed at 0.750 (0.725-0.775) but underestimated mortality compared with EuroSCORE I in calibration analysis. In conclusion, EuroSCORE II and several endocarditis-specific scores had moderate discrimination (AUC > 0.75) in predicting mortality after IE surgery.

External validation of EuroSCORE I and II in patients with infective endocarditis: results from a nationwide prospective registry

OBJECTIVES

The primary objective was to externally validate EuroSCORE I and II in surgically treated endocarditis patients. The secondary objective was to assess the predictive performance of both models across sex, redo surgery, age, and urgency.

METHODS

Data were retrieved from the Netherlands Heart Registration. All patients with infective endocarditis who underwent cardiac surgery between 2013 and 2021 were included. Predictive performance was assessed by discrimination (area under the curve), calibration (calibration-in-the-large and calibration plots), and a decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

Two thousand five hundred and sixty-nine cases were included. Overall postoperative 30-day mortality was 10.2%. The area under the curve was 0.73 for EuroSCORE I and 0.72 for EuroSCORE II. Both models overpredict postoperative 30-day mortality, with observed-to-expected ratios of 0.37 and 0.69. EuroSCORE I overpredicts mortality across the full range, whereas EuroSCORE II overpredicts mortality only above a 20% predicted probability. We observed no significant differences in predictive performance across sex, redo surgery, or age. Discriminative capacity of EuroSCORE II was poor in emergency surgeries.

CONCLUSIONS

Both EuroSCORE models demonstrate acceptable discriminative capacity in IE patients. EuroSCORE I consistently overestimates mortality and should not be utilized in endocarditis patients. EuroSCORE II can be used in IE patients up to a predicted probability of approximately 20%, regardless of sex, redo surgery, or age. Beyond this point, the predicted mortality risk should be halved to approach the true mortality risk. EuroSCORE II should not be used for risk prediction in emergency endocarditis surgeries and patients should not be withheld from indicated surgical treatment solely based on high EuroSCOREs.

Prediction of 30-day mortality after surgery for infective endocarditis using risk scores: Insights from a European multicenter comparative validation study

BACKGROUND

It remains unclear today whether risk scores created specifically to predict early mortality after cardiac operations for infective endocarditis (IE) outperform or not the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II).

METHODS

Perioperative data and outcomes from a European multicenter series of patients undergoing surgery for definite IE were retrospectively reviewed. Only the cases with known pathogen and without missing values for all considered variables were retained for analyses. A comparative validation of EuroSCORE II and 5 specific risk scores for early mortality after surgery for IE-(1) STS-IE (Society of Thoracic Surgeons for IE); (2) PALSUSE (Prosthetic valve, Age ≥70, Large intracardiac destruction, Staphylococcus spp, Urgent surgery, Sex (female), EuroSCORE ≥10); (3) ANCLA (Anemia, New York Heart Association class IV, Critical state, Large intracardiac destruction, surgery on thoracic Aorta); (4) AEPEI II (Association pour l'Étude et la Prévention de l'Endocardite Infectieuse II); (5) APORTEI (Análisis de los factores PROnósticos en el Tratamiento quirúrgico de la Endocarditis Infecciosa)-was carried out using calibration plot and receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. Areas under the curve (AUCs) were compared 1:1 according to the Hanley-McNeil's method. The agreement between APORTEI score and EuroSCORE II of the 30-day mortality prediction after surgery was also appraised.

RESULTS

A total of 1,012 patients from 5 European university-affiliated centers underwent 1,036 cardiac operations, with a 30-day mortality after surgery of 9.7%. All IE-specific risk scores considered achieved better results than EuroSCORE II in terms of calibration; AEPEI II and APORTEI score showed the best performances. Despite poor calibration, EuroSCORE II overcame in discrimination every specific risk score (AUC, 0.751 vs 0.693 or less, P = .01 or less). For a higher/lesser than 20% expected mortality, the agreement of prediction between APORTEI score and EuroSCORE II was 86%.

CONCLUSION

EuroSCORE II discrimination for 30-day mortality after surgery for IE was higher than 5 established IE-specific risk scores. AEPEI II and APORTEI score showed the best results in terms of calibration.

Performance of the SHARPEN Score and the Charlson Comorbidity Index for In-Hospital and Post-Discharge Mortality Prediction in Infective Endocarditis

BACKGROUND

Central Illustration : Performance of the SHARPEN Score and the Charlson Comorbidity Index for In-Hospital and Post-Discharge Mortality Prediction in Infective Endocarditis.

BACKGROUND

SHARPEN was the first dedicated score for in-hospital mortality prediction in infective endocarditis (IE) regardless of cardiac surgery.

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the ability of the SHARPEN score to predict in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and compare it with that of the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI).

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study including definite IE (Duke modified criteria) admissions from 2000 to 2016. The area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC) was calculated to assess predictive ability. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression was performed. P-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

We studied 179 hospital admissions. In-hospital mortality was 22.3%; 68 (38.0%) had cardiac surgery. Median (interquartile range, IQR) SHARPEN and CCI scores were 9(7-11) and 3(2-6), respectively. SHARPEN had better in-hospital mortality prediction than CCI in non-operated patients (AUC-ROC 0.77 vs. 0.62, p = 0.003); there was no difference in overall (p = 0.26) and in operated patients (p = 0.41). SHARPEN > 10 at admission was associated with decreased in-hospital survival in the overall (HR 3.87; p < 0.001), in non-operated (HR 3.46; p = 0.006) and operated (HR 6.86; p < 0.001) patients. CCI > 3 at admission was associated with worse in-hospital survival in the overall (HR 3.0; p = 0.002), and in operated patients (HR 5.57; p = 0.005), but not in non-operated patients (HR 2.13; p = 0.119). Post-discharge survival was worse in patients with SHARPEN > 10 (HR 3.11; p < 0.001) and CCI > 3 (HR 2.63; p < 0.001) at admission; however, there was no difference in predictive ability between these groups.

CONCLUSION

SHARPEN was superior to CCI in predicting in-hospital mortality in non-operated patients. There was no difference between the scores regarding post-discharge mortality.

B-type natriuretic peptide levels at admission predict the prognosis of patients with infective endocarditis undergoing cardiac surgery

Purpose: The objective of this study was to explore the relationship between elevated B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels and the prognosis of patients with infective endocarditis (IE) undergoing cardiac surgery. Methods: In total, 162 IE patients with recorded BNP levels upon admission were included in the present study. The primary end point was all-cause mortality. Results: Multivariate Cox analysis revealed a significant association between log BNP and all-cause mortality. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a poorer prognosis for patients with BNP levels ≥ the 75th percentile. Furthermore, the linear trend test indicated a significant link between BNP quartiles and the primary end point within the models. Conclusion: Elevated BNP levels upon admission could predict all-cause mortality in IE patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Mortality and rehospitalization after mitral valve surgery as a function of age and key comorbidities

BACKGROUND

Mitral valve surgery is associated with substantial perioperative risk and long-term complications. Data on long-term outcomes following surgery remain scarce and are hypothetically modified by age and comorbidities.

METHODS

This Danish nationwide study included patients ≥60 years of age undergoing mitral valve surgery from 2000-2018. Patients were observed from day of surgery until outcome of interest (ie, rehospitalization or death) or maximum 1 year of follow-up. The absolute risks of outcomes were assessed, and associated factors were evaluated. Based on age and comorbidities, patients were stratified in 4 groups: low (<75 years + 0 comorbidities), low intermediate (≥75 years/1 comorbidity), high intermediate (≥75 years + 1 comorbidity/2 comorbidities), and high risk of death (≥75 years + ≥2 comorbidities).

RESULTS

In total, 4,202 patients (62.9% men) were identified. Within 1 year after surgery, 504 (12.0%) died and 2,456 (58.5%) were rehospitalized. Factors associated with death included older age (>75 years), chronic obstructive lung disease, heart failure, prior myocardial infarction, prior stroke, liver disease, and kidney disease. The 1-year risks of death among patients in low, low-intermediate, high-intermediate, and high risk of death were 3.6%, 10.3%, 19.6%, and 27.7%, respectively. Diabetes mellitus and chronic obstructive lung disease were associated with an increased incidence of rehospitalization, and the incidence of rehospitalization was similar among the 4 abovementioned groups (57.8%-62.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality and rehospitalization risks after mitral valve surgery varied substantially with age and comorbidities. High-risk patients with >25% 1-year mortality may be easily identified using readily available clinical features.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

In Denmark, registry-based studies that are conducted for the sole purpose of statistics and scientific research do not require ethical approval or informed consent by law. However, the study is approved by the data responsible institute (the Capital Region of Denmark [approval number: P-2019-348]) in accordance with the general data protection regulation.

Infective endocarditis: Do we have an effective risk score model? A systematic review

Background

Infective endocarditis (IE) is a rare, highly morbid condition with 17% in-hospital mortality. A total of 25-30% require surgery and there is ongoing debate with regard to markers predicting patient outcomes and guiding intervention. This systematic review aims to evaluate all IE risk scores currently available.

Methods

Standard methodology (PRISMA guideline) was used. Papers with risk score analysis for IE patients were included, with attention to studies reporting area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC/ROC). Qualitative analysis was carried out, including assessment of validation processes and comparison of these results to original derivation cohorts where available. Risk-of-bias analysis illustrated according to PROBAST guidelines.

Results

Of 75 articles initially identified, 32 papers were analyzed for a total of 20 proposed scores (range 66-13,000 patients), 14 of which were specific for IE. The number of variables per score ranged from 3 to 14 with only 50% including microbiological variables and 15% including biomarkers. The following scores had good performance (AUC > 0.8) in studies proposing the score (often the derivation cohort); however fared poorly when applied to a new cohort: PALSUSE, DeFeo, ANCLA, RISK-E, EndoSCORE, MELD-XI, COSTA, and SHARPEN. DeFeo score demonstrated the largest discrepancy with initial AUC of 0.88, compared to 0.58 when applied to different cohorts. The inflammatory response in IE has been well documented and CRP has been found to be an independent predictor for worse outcomes. There is ongoing investigation on alternate inflammatory biomarkers which may assist in IE management. Of the scores identified in this review, only three have included a biomarker as a predictor.

Conclusion

Despite the variety of available scores, their development has been limited by small sample size, retrospective collection of data and short-term outcomes, with lack of external validation, limiting their transportability. Future population studies and large comprehensive registries are required to address this unmet clinical need.

Risk scores' performance and their impact on operative decision-making in left-sided endocarditis: a cohort study

The accuracy of contemporary risk scores in predicting perioperative mortality in infective endocarditis (IE) remains controversial. The aim is to evaluate the performance of existent mortality risk scores for cardiovascular surgery in IE and the impact on operability at high-risk thresholds. A single-center retrospective review of adult patients diagnosed with acute left-sided IE undergoing surgery from May 2014 to August 2019 (n = 142) was done. Individualized risk calculation was obtained according to the available mortality risk scores: EuroScore I and II, PALSUSE, Risk-E, Costa, De Feo-Cotrufo, AEPEI, STS-risk, STS-IE, APORTEI, and ICE-PCS scores. A cross-validation analysis was performed on the score with the best area under the curve (AUC). The 30-day survival was 96.5% (95%CI 91-98%). The score with worse area under the curve (AUC = 0.6) was the STS-IE score, while the higher was for the RISK-E score (AUC = 0.89). The AUC of the majority of risk scores suggested acceptable performance; however, statistically significant differences in expected versus observed mortalities were common. The cross-validation analysis showed that a large number of survivors (> 75%) would not have been operated if arbitrary high-risk threshold estimates had been used to deny surgery. The observed mortality in our cohort is significantly lower than is predicted by contemporary risk scores. Despite the reasonable numeric performance of the analyzed scores, their utility in judging the operability of a given patient remains questionable, as demonstrated in the cross-validation analysis. Future guidelines may advise that denial of surgery should only follow a highly experienced Endocarditis Team evaluation.

Current recommendations and uncertainties for surgical treatment of infective endocarditis: a comparison of American and European cardiovascular guidelines

Surgery is an effective therapy in the treatment of left-sided infective endocarditis (IE) in patients for whom antibiotic treatment alone is unlikely to be curative or may be associated with ongoing risk of complications. However, the interplay between indication for surgery, its risk, and timing is complex and there continue to be challenges in defining the effects of surgery on disease-related outcome. Guidelines published by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and the European Society of Cardiology provide recommendations for the use of surgery in IE, but these are limited by a low level of evidence related to predominantly observational studies with inherent selection and survival biases. Evidence to guide the timing of surgery in IE is less robust, and predominantly based on expert consensus. Delays between IE diagnosis and recognition of an IE complication as a surgical indication and transfers to surgical centres also impact surgical timing. This comparison of the two guidelines exposes areas of uncertainty and gaps in current evidence for the use of surgery in IE across different indications, particularly related to its timing and consideration of operative risk.

A step-by-step guide to implementing a multidisciplinary endocarditis team

Over the last several years multiple studies, primarily from European centers have demonstrated the clinical and outcomes benefits of multidisciplinary endocarditis teams. Despite this literature, adoption of this approach to patient care has been slower in the United States. While there is literature outlining the optimal composition of an endocarditis team, there is little information to guide providers as they attempt to transform practice from a fragmented, disjointed process to an efficient, collaborative care model. In this review, the authors will outline the steps they took to create and implement a successful multidisciplinary endocarditis team at the University of Michigan. In conjunction with existing data, this piece can be used as a resource for clinicians seeking to improve the care of patients with endocarditis at their institutions.

Prognostic models for mortality after cardiac surgery in patients with infective endocarditis: a systematic review and aggregation of prediction models

BACKGROUND

There are several prognostic models to estimate the risk of mortality after surgery for active infective endocarditis (IE). However, these models incorporate different predictors and their performance is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

We systematically reviewed and critically appraised all available prediction models of postoperative mortality in patients undergoing surgery for IE, and aggregated them into a meta-model.

DATA SOURCES

We searched Medline and EMBASE databases from inception to June 2020.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

We included studies that developed or updated a prognostic model of postoperative mortality in patient with IE.

METHODS

We assessed the risk of bias of the models using PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool) and we aggregated them into an aggregate meta-model based on stacked regressions and optimized it for a nationwide registry of IE patients. The meta-model performance was assessed using bootstrap validation methods and adjusted for optimism.

RESULTS

We identified 11 prognostic models for postoperative mortality. Eight models had a high risk of bias. The meta-model included weighted predictors from the remaining three models (EndoSCORE, specific ES-I and specific ES-II), which were not rated as high risk of bias and provided full model equations. Additionally, two variables (age and infectious agent) that had been modelled differently across studies, were estimated based on the nationwide registry. The performance of the meta-model was better than the original three models, with the corresponding performance measures: C-statistics 0.79 (95% CI 0.76-0.82), calibration slope 0.98 (95% CI 0.86-1.13) and calibration-in-the-large -0.05 (95% CI -0.20 to 0.11).

CONCLUSIONS

The meta-model outperformed published models and showed a robust predictive capacity for predicting the individualized risk of postoperative mortality in patients with IE.

PROTOCOL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO (registration number CRD42020192602).

Prognostic assessment of valvular surgery in active infective endocarditis: multicentric nationwide validation of a new score developed from a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Several risk prediction models have been developed to estimate the risk of mortality after valve surgery for active infective endocarditis (IE), but few external validations have been conducted to assess their accuracy. We previously developed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the impact of IE-specific factors for the in-hospital mortality rate after IE valve surgery, whose obtained pooled estimations were the basis for the development of a new score (APORTEI). The aim of the present study was to assess its prognostic accuracy in a nationwide cohort.

METHODS

We analysed the prognostic utility of the APORTEI score using patient-level data from a multicentric national cohort. Patients who underwent surgery for active IE between 2008 and 2018 were included. Discrimination was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and the calibration was assessed using the calibration slope and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Agreement between the APORTEI and the EuroSCORE I was also analysed by Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), the Bland-Altman agreement analysis and a scatterplot graph.

RESULTS

The 11 variables that comprised the APORTEI score were analysed in the sample. The APORTEI score was calculated in 1338 patients. The overall observed surgical mortality rate was 25.56%. The score demonstrated adequate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.75; 95% confidence interval 0.72-0.77) and calibration (calibration slope = 1.03; Hosmer-Lemeshow test P = 0.389). We found a lack of agreement between the APORTEI and EuroSCORE I (concordance correlation coefficient = 0.55).

CONCLUSIONS

The APORTEI score, developed from a systematic review and meta-analysis, showed an adequate estimation of the risk of mortality after IE valve surgery in a nationwide cohort.

[Surgical treatment of infective endocarditis: Surgical indications, complications, intrahospital and long-term mortality]

BACKGROUND

In addition to medical treatment, half of the patients with infective endocarditis (IE) receive surgical treatment. Despite clear recommendations on the indications and the operating delays, the decision remains difficult and must take into consideration several factors.

METHODS

A retrospective study was performed at Foch Hospital. All patients operated for IE between 2005 and 2018 were included. Patient characteristics, indications and operating delays, as well as intrahospital mortality, were noted. Patient follow-up was provided by phone calls.

RESULTS

Fifty-two patients were operated on for IE between 2005 and 2018. The most frequent surgical indications were the presence of a massive symptomatic regurgitation, an uncontrolled infection and large vegetations with embolism. The average operative delay was 13.2 days with 56.5% of patients operated within the first 10 days. The most common postoperative complications were acute kidney injury (AKI) in 57.7% of cases, with 9.6% of dialysis, shock in 50% of cases, rhythm disorders in 40.4% of cases, infectious complications in 19.2% of cases, conductive disorders in 25% of cases, of which 17.3% require a definitive pacemaker implementation. The intrahospital mortality was 7.7% and the average length of hospital stay was 35 days. Survival at one year and 5 years was 95% and 85%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The indications and the operating delays were conformed to international recommendations. Intrahospital and long-term mortality rate was low.

Complementary Diagnostic and Prognostic Contributions of Cardiac Computed Tomography for Infective Endocarditis Surgery

BACKGROUND

Cardiac computed tomography (CT) is emerging as an adjunctive modality to echocardiography in the evaluation of infective endocarditis (IE) and surgical planning. CT studies in IE have, however, focused on its diagnostic rather than prognostic utility, the latter of which is important in high-risk diseases like IE. We evaluated the associations between cardiac CT and transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) findings and adverse outcomes after IE surgery.

METHODS

Of 833 consecutive patients with surgically proven IE during May 1, 2014 to May 1, 2019, at Cleveland Clinic, 155 underwent both preoperative ECG-gated contrast-enhanced CT and TEE. Multivariable analyses were performed to identify CT and TEE biomarkers that predict adverse outcomes after IE surgery, adjusting for EuroSCORE II (European System for Cardiac operative Risk Evaluation II).

RESULTS

CT and TEE were positive for IE in 123 (75.0%) and 124 (75.6%) of patients, respectively. Thirty-day mortality occurred in 3 (1.9%) patients and composite mortality or morbidities in 72 (46.5%). Pseudoaneurysm or abscess detected on TEE was the only imaging biomarker to show independent association with composite mortality or morbidities in-hospital, with odds ratio (95% CI) of 3.66 (1.76-7.59), P=0.001. There were 17 late deaths, and both pseudoaneurysm or abscess detected on CT and fistula detected on CT were the only independent predictors of total mortality during follow-up, with hazards ratios (95% CI) of 3.82 (1.25-11.7), P<0.001 and 9.84 (1.89-51.0), P=0.007, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified cardiac CT and TEE features that predicted separate adverse outcomes after IE surgery. Imaging biomarkers can play important roles incremental to conventional clinical factors for risk stratification in patients undergoing IE surgery.

Short- and long-term mortality in patients with left-sided infective endocarditis not undergoing surgery despite indication

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

In infective endocarditis (IE), decisions on surgical interventions are challenging and a high percentage of patients with surgical indication do not undergo these procedures. This study aimed to evaluate the short- and long-term prognosis of patients with surgical indication, comparing those who underwent surgery with those who did not.

METHODS

We included 271 patients with left-sided IE treated at our institution from 2003 to 2018 and with an indication for surgery. There were 83 (31%) surgery-indicated not undergoing surgery patients with left-sided infective endocarditis (SINUS-LSIE). The primary outcome was all-cause death by day 60 and the secondary outcome was all-cause death from day 61 to 3 years of follow-up. Multivariable Cox regression and propensity score matching were used for the analysis.

RESULTS

At the 60-day follow-up, 40 (21.3%) surgically-treated patients and 53 (63.9%) SINUS-LSIE patients died (P <.001). Risk of 60-day mortality was higher in SINUS-LSIE patients (HR, 3.59; 95%CI, 2.16-5.96; P <.001). Other independent predictors of the primary endpoint were unknown etiology, heart failure, atrioventricular block, and shock. From day 61 to the 3-year follow-up, there were no significant differences in the risk of death between surgically-treated and SINUS-LSIE patients (HR, 1.89; 95%CI, 0.68-5.19; P=.220). Results were consistent after propensity score matching. Independent variables associated with the secondary endpoint were previous IE, diabetes mellitus, and Charlson index.

CONCLUSIONS

Two-thirds of SINUS-LSIE patients died within 60 days. Among survivors, the long-term mortality depends more on host conditions than on the treatment received during admission.

Prognostic factors of mortality after surgery in infective endocarditis: systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

There is a lack of consensus about which endocarditis-specific preoperative characteristics have an actual impact over postoperative mortality. Our objective was the identification and quantification of these factors.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of all the studies which reported factors related to in-hospital mortality after surgery for acute infective endocarditis, conducted according to PRISMA recommendations. A search string was constructed and applied on three different databases. Two investigators independently reviewed the retrieved references. Quality assessment was performed for identification of potential biases. All the variables that were included in at least two validated risk scores were meta-analyzed independently, and the pooled estimates were expressed as odds ratios (OR) with their confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

The final sample consisted on 16 studies, comprising a total of 7484 patients. The overall pooled OR were statistically significant (p < 0.05) for: age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00-1.05), female sex (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.35-1.81), urgent or emergency surgery (OR 2.39 95% CI 1.91-3.00), previous cardiac surgery (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.84-2.61), NYHA ≥ III (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.33-2.55), cardiogenic shock (OR 4.15, 95% CI 3.06-5.64), prosthetic valve (OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.68-2.33), multivalvular affection (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.01-1.82), renal failure (OR 2.57, 95% CI 2.15-3.06), paravalvular abscess (OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.77-3.22) and S. aureus infection (OR 2.27, 95% CI 1.89-2.73).

CONCLUSIONS

After a systematic review, we identified 11 preoperative factors related to an increased postoperative mortality. The meta-analysis of each of these factors showed a significant association with an increased in-hospital mortality after surgery for active infective endocarditis. Graph summary of the Pooled Odds Ratios of the 11 preoperative factors analyzed after the systematic review and meta-analysis.

Risk scores and surgery for infective endocarditis: in search of a good predictive score

Objectives: To evaluate scoring systems that have been created to predict the risk of death post-surgery in infective endocarditis (IE). Design: Eight scores - (1) The Society of Thoracic Surgery (STS) risk score for IE, (2) De Feo score, (3) PALSUSE score (prosthetic valve, age ≥70, large intracardiac destruction, Staphylococcus spp, urgent surgery, sex [female], EuroSCORE ≥10), (4) ANCLA score (anemia, New York Heart Association class IV, critical state, large intracardiac destruction, surgery of thoracic aorta), (5) Risk-Endocarditis Score (RISK-E), (6) score for heart valve or prosthesis IE (EndoSCORE), and (7,8) Association pour l'Étude et la Prévention de l'Endocadite Infectieuse (AEPEI) score I and II - were evaluated in 324 (mean age, 61.8 ± 14.6 years) consecutive patients having IE and undergoing cardiac operation (1999-2018, Regione Autonoma Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Italy). Results: There were 45 (13.9%) in-hospital deaths. Despite many differences on the number and the type of variables, all the investigated scores showed good goodness-of-fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p ≥.28). For five scores, accuracy of prediction (receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis) was good (ANCLA score) or fair (STS risk score for IE, PALSUSE score, AEPEI score I and II). When compared one-to-one (Hanley-McNeil method), accuracy of prediction of ANCLA score was higher than all of other risk scores except for AEPEI score I (p = .077). Conclusions: Five of eight scores that were evaluated in this study showed satisfactory performance in predicting in-hospital mortality following surgery for IE. The ANCLA score should be preferred.

Long-term prognosis after surgery for infective endocarditis: Distinction between predictors of early and late survival

OBJECTIVES

Cardiac surgery is a life-saving procedure in patients diagnosed with infective endocarditis (IE). There are several validated risk scores developed to predict early-mortality; nevertheless, long-term survival has been less investigated. The aim of the present study is to analyze the impact of IE-specific risk factors for early and long-term mortality.

METHODS

An observational retrospective study was conducted that included all patients who underwent surgery for IE from 2002 to 2016. Median follow-up time after surgery was 53.2 months (IQI 26.2-106.8 months). In-hospital mortality was analyzed using multiple logistic regression. Long-term survival was analyzed after one, two and five years. Cox proportional hazards regression was employed to identify risk factors related to long-term mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 180 patients underwent cardiac surgery, 133 were discharged alive (in-hospital mortality was 26.11%). 6 variables were identified as independent factors associated with in-hospital mortality, most of them closely related to the severity of IE: age, multivalvular involvement, critical preoperative status, preoperative mechanical ventilation, abscess and thrombocytopenia. Long-term survival in patients discharged alive was 89.1%, 87.4% and 77.6% after one, two and five years. Long-term mortality was independent of specific IE factors and 86.51% of deaths were not related to cardiovascular or infectious diseases.

CONCLUSION

Despite the high perioperative mortality rate after surgical treatment for active IE, long-term survival after hospital discharge was acceptable, regardless of the severity of the endocarditis episode. Although in-hospital survival depended mainly on several IE factors, long-term survival was not related to the severity of endocarditis baseline affection.

A pragmatic approach for mortality prediction after surgery in infective endocarditis: optimizing and refining EuroSCORE

OBJECTIVE

To simplify and optimize the ability of EuroSCORE I and II to predict early mortality after surgery for infective endocarditis (IE).

METHODS

Multicentre retrospective study (n = 775). Simplified scores, eliminating irrelevant variables, and new specific scores, adding specific IE variables, were created. The performance of the original, recalibrated and specific EuroSCOREs was assessed by Brier score, C-statistic and calibration plot in bootstrap samples. The Net Reclassification Index was quantified.

RESULTS

Recalibrated scores including age, previous cardiac surgery, critical preoperative state, New York Heart Association >I, and emergent surgery (EuroSCORE I and II); renal failure and pulmonary hypertension (EuroSCORE I); and urgent surgery (EuroSCORE II) performed better than the original EuroSCOREs (Brier original and recalibrated: EuroSCORE I: 0.1770 and 0.1667; EuroSCORE II: 0.2307 and 0.1680). Performance improved with the addition of fistula, staphylococci and mitral location (EuroSCORE I and II) (Brier specific: EuroSCORE I 0.1587, EuroSCORE II 0.1592). Discrimination improved in specific models (C-statistic original, recalibrated and specific: EuroSCORE I: 0.7340, 0.7471 and 0.7728; EuroSCORE II: 0.7442, 0.7423 and 0.7700). Calibration improved in both EuroSCORE I models (intercept 0.295, slope 0.829 (original); intercept -0.094, slope 0.888 (recalibrated); intercept -0.059, slope 0.925 (specific)) but only in specific EuroSCORE II model (intercept 2.554, slope 1.114 (original); intercept -0.260, slope 0.703 (recalibrated); intercept -0.053, slope 0.930 (specific)). Net Reclassification Index was 5.1% and 20.3% for the specific EuroSCORE I and II.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of simplified EuroSCORE I and EuroSCORE II models in IE with the addition of specific variables may lead to simpler and more accurate models.

Observational Study of Infective Endocarditis at a Community-based Hospital: Dominance of Elderly Patients with Comorbidity

Objective The purpose of this study was to present the recent clinical profiles and the real-world management of infective endocarditis (IE). Methods All medical records of patients with IE were reviewed retrospectively for their clinical data, including clinical presentation, laboratory results, blood cultures, echocardiographic findings, treatments and complications. Using the clinical data collected, we calculated the EuroSCORE II, the European risk score for adult cardiac surgery, the Charlson Comorbidity Index as a surrogate of comordibity, and the Katz Index as a surrogate of frailty. Results Thirty-eight patients were identified as having IE (24 men, age: 71.8±13.1 years). Congestive heart failure occurred in 16 patients (42%), stroke in 14 (50%), and systemic embolism in 5 (13%). The EuroSCORE II and Charlson Comorbidity Index were high (7.7±5.8% and 5.5±2.8%, respectively). The Katz Index was fair (5.5±1.4) before the onset but deteriorated to 2.8±2.7 at the time of establishing the diagnosis of IE (p<0.001). Early surgery was performed in 22 cases (61%). In-hospital death occurred in 10 cases (26%). A EuroSCORE II ≥9%, Staphylococcus aureus etiology, and a Charlson Comorbidity Index were suggested as determinants of in-hospital death (hazard ratios: 173.60, 9.31, 1.57, respectively). In contrast, early surgery was suggested as a determinant of the survival (hazard ratio: 0.04). The Charlson Comorbidity Index was also suggested as a determinant for selecting conservative management (odds ratio: 1.40). Conclusion Comorbidity may influence the treatment selection and outcome of elderly patients with IE.

Simple Scoring System to Predict In-Hospital Mortality After Surgery for Infective Endocarditis

Background

Aspecific scoring systems are used to predict the risk of death postsurgery in patients with infective endocarditis (IE). The purpose of the present study was both to analyze the risk factors for in‐hospital death, which complicates surgery for IE, and to create a mortality risk score based on the results of this analysis.

Methods and Results

Outcomes of 361 consecutive patients (mean age, 59.1±15.4 years) who had undergone surgery for IE in 8 European centers of cardiac surgery were recorded prospectively, and a risk factor analysis (multivariable logistic regression) for in‐hospital death was performed. The discriminatory power of a new predictive scoring system was assessed with the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Score validation procedures were carried out. Fifty‐six (15.5%) patients died postsurgery. BMI >27 kg/m² (odds ratio [OR], 1.79; P=0.049), estimated glomerular filtration rate <50 mL/min (OR, 3.52; P<0.0001), New York Heart Association class IV (OR, 2.11; P=0.024), systolic pulmonary artery pressure >55 mm Hg (OR, 1.78; P=0.032), and critical state (OR, 2.37; P=0.017) were independent predictors of in‐hospital death. A scoring system was devised to predict in‐hospital death postsurgery for IE (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.780; 95% CI, 0.734–0.822). The score performed better than 5 of 6 scoring systems for in‐hospital death after cardiac surgery that were considered.

Conclusions

A simple scoring system based on risk factors for in‐hospital death was specifically created to predict mortality risk postsurgery in patients with IE.