A bespoke health risk assessment methodology for the radiation protection of astronauts

Simulated Galactic Cosmic Radiation Exposure-Induced Mammary Tumorigenesis in ApcMin/+ Mice Coincides with Activation of ERα-ERRα-SPP1 Signaling Axis

BACKGROUND

Exposure to galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) is a breast cancer risk factor for female astronauts on deep-space missions. However, the specific signaling mechanisms driving GCR-induced breast cancer have not yet been determined.

METHODS

This study aimed to investigate the role of the estrogen-induced ERα-ERRα-SPP1 signaling axis in relation to mammary tumorigenesis in female ApcMin/+ mice exposed to simulated GCR (GCRsim) at 100-110 days post-exposure.

RESULTS

In GCRsim-exposed mice, we observed marked elevations in serum estradiol, increased ductal overgrowth, ERα activation, and upregulation of ERα target genes with pro-tumorigenic functions in mammary tissues that was coupled with a higher mammary tumorigenesis, relative to control. Additionally, the ERα target gene Esrra, which encodes ERRα, was also upregulated along with its oncogenic target gene Spp1, indicating the activation of the ERα-ERRα-SPP1 axis in mouse mammary tissues after GCRsim exposure. Using a human tissue microarray and human breast cancer gene expression analysis, we also highlighted the conserved nature of the ERα-ERRα-SPP1 signaling in human breast cancer development.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified the ERα-ERRα-SPP1 signaling axis as a potential key mediator in GCR-induced breast cancer with conserved activation in human breast cancer. These findings suggest that targeting this pathway could serve as a potential target for therapeutic intervention to safeguard female astronauts during and after a prolonged outer space mission.

Application of multi-method-multi-model inference to radiation related solid cancer excess risks models for astronaut risk assessment

The impact of including model-averaged excess radiation risks (ER) into a measure of radiation attributed decrease of survival (RADS) for the outcome all solid cancer incidence and the impact on the uncertainties is demonstrated. It is shown that RADS applying weighted model averaged ER based on AIC weights result in smaller risk estimates with narrower 95% CI than RADS using ER based on BIC weights. Further a multi-method-multi-model inference approach is introduced that allows calculating one general RADS estimate providing a weighted average risk estimate for a lunar and a Mars mission. For males the general RADS estimate is found to be 0.42% (95% CI: 0.38%; 0.45%) and for females 0.67% (95% CI: 0.59%; 0.75%) for a lunar mission and 2.45% (95% CI: 2.23%; 2.67%) for males and 3.91% (95% CI: 3.44%; 4.39%) for females for a Mars mission considering an age at exposure of 40 years and an attained age of 65 years. It is recommended to include these types of uncertainties and to include model-averaged excess risks in astronaut risk assessment.

Space station and spacecraft environmental conditions and human mental health: Specific recommendations and guidelines

The way that a given environment may influence human mental health is widely established, with decades of research linking anxiety, depression, stress, productivity, and general mood with all facets of a given environment, including noise levels, lighting, air quality, and other factors. The environmental conditions of a space habitat have far reaching consequences for human mental health and should be carefully managed. This manuscript serves to briefly review what is known about the main components of a space habitat (e.g., noise levels, lighting, air quality, privacy, plant life, etc.), and provide specific and clear recommendations for mission planners and space habitat designers. Where appropriate, opportunities for future research are highlighted.

Time-integrated radiation risk metrics and interpopulation variability of survival

Task Group 115 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection is focusing on mission-related exposures to space radiation and concomitant health risks for space crew members including, among others, risk of cancer development. Uncertainties in cumulative radiation risk estimates come from the stochastic nature of the considered health outcome (i.e., cancer), uncertainties of statistical inference and model parameters, unknown secular trends used for projections of population statistics and unknown variability of survival properties between individuals or population groups. The variability of survival is usually ignored when dealing with large groups, which can be assumed well represented by the statistical data for the contemporary general population, either in a specific country or world averaged. Space crew members differ in many aspects from individuals represented by the general population, including, for example, their lifestyle and health status, nutrition, medical care, training and education. The individuality of response to radiation and lifespan is explored in this modelling study. Task Group 115 is currently evaluating applicability and robustness of various risk metrics for quantification of radiation-attributed risks of cancer for space crew members. This paper demonstrates the impact of interpopulation variability of survival curves on values and uncertainty of the estimates of the time-integrated radiation risk of cancer.

European astronaut radiation related cancer risk assessment using dosimetric calculations of organ dose equivalents

An illustrative sample mission of a Mars swing-by mission lasting one calendar year was chosen to highlight the application of European risk assessment software to cancer (all solid cancer plus leukaemia) risks from radiation exposures in space quantified with organ dose equivalent rates from model calculations based on the quantity Radiation Attributed Decrease of Survival (RADS). The relevant dose equivalent to the colon for radiation exposures from this Mars swing-by mission were found to vary between 198 and 482 mSv. These doses depend on sex and the two other factors investigated here of: solar activity phase (maximum or minimum); and the choice of space radiation quality factor used in the calculations of dose equivalent. Such doses received at typical astronaut ages around 40 years old will result in: the probability of surviving until retirement age (65 years) being reduced by a range from 0.38% (95%CI: 0.29; 0.49) to 1.29% (95%CI: 1.06; 1.56); and the probability of surviving cancer free until retirement age being reduced by a range from 0.78% (95%CI: 0.59; 0.99) to 2.63% (95%CI: 2.16; 3.18). As expected from the features of the models applied to quantify the general dosimetric and radiation epidemiology parameters, the cancer incidence risks in terms of surviving cancer free, are higher than the cancer mortality risks in terms of surviving, the risks for females are higher than for males, and the risks at solar minimum are higher than at solar maximum.

Comparison of dose and risk estimates between ISS Partner Agencies for a 30-day lunar mission

The International Partner Agencies of the International Space Station (ISS) present a comparison of the ionizing radiation absorbed dose and risk quantities used to characterize example missions in lunar space. This effort builds on previous collaborative work that characterizes radiation environments in space to support radiation protection for human spaceflight on ISS in low-Earth orbit (LEO) and exploration missions beyond (BLEO). A "shielded" ubiquitous galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) environment combined with--and separate from--the transient challenge of a solar particle event (SPE) was modelled for a simulated 30-day mission period. Simple geometries of relatively thin and uniform shields were chosen to represent the space vehicle and other available shielding, and male or female phantoms were used to represent the body's self-shielding. Absorbed dose in organs and tissues and the effective dose were calculated for males and females. Risk parameters for cancer and other outcomes are presented for selected organs. The results of this intracomparison between ISS Partner Agencies itself provide insights to the level of agreement with which space agencies can perform organ dosimetry and calculate effective dose. This work was performed in collaboration with the advisory and guidance efforts of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Task Group 115 and will be presented in an ICRP Report.

Space agency-specific standards for crew dose and risk assessment of ionising radiation exposures for the International Space Station

The Partner Agencies of the International Space Station (ISS) maintain separate career exposure limits and shared Flight Rules that control the ionising radiation exposures that crewmembers can experience due to ambient environments throughout their space missions. In low Earth orbit as well as further out in space, energetic ions referred to as galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) easily penetrate spacecraft and spacecraft contents and consequently are always present at low dose rates. Protons and electrons that are trapped in the Earth's geomagnetic field are encountered intermittently, and a rare energetic solar particle event (SPE) may expose crew to (mostly) energetic protons. Space radiation protection goals are to optimize radiation exposures to maintain deleterious late effects at known and acceptable levels and to prevent any early effects that might compromise crew health and mission success. The conventional radiation protection metric effective dose provides a basic framework for limiting exposures associated with human spaceflight and can be communicated to all stakeholders. Additional metrics and uncertainty analyses are required to understand more completely and to convey nuanced information about potential impacts to an individual astronaut or to a space mission. Missions to remote destinations well beyond low Earth orbit (BLEO) are upcoming and bestow additional challenges that shape design and radiation protection needs. NASA has recently adopted a more permissive career exposure limit based upon effective dose and new restrictions on mission exposures imposed by nuclear technologies. This manuscript reviews the exposure limits that apply to the ISS crewmembers. This work was performed in collaboration with the advisory and guidance efforts of International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Task Group 115 and will be summarized in an upcoming ICRP Report.

Evaluation of deep space exploration risks and mitigations against radiation and microgravity

Ionizing radiation and microgravity are two considerable health risks encountered during deep space exploration. Both have deleterious effects on the human body. On one hand, weightlessness is known to induce a weakening of the immune system, delayed wound healing and musculoskeletal, cardiovascular, and sensorimotor deconditioning. On the other hand, radiation exposure can lead to long-term health effects such as cancer and cataracts as well as have an adverse effect on the central nervous and cardiovascular systems. Ionizing radiation originates from three main sources in space: galactic cosmic radiation, solar particle events and solar winds. Furthermore, inside the spacecraft and inside certain space habitats on Lunar and Martian surfaces, the crew is exposed to intravehicular radiation, which arises from nuclear reactions between space radiation and matter. Besides the approaches already in use, such as radiation shielding materials (such as aluminium, water or polyethylene), alternative shielding materials (including boron nanotubes, complex hybrids, composite hybrid materials, and regolith) and active shielding (using fields to deflect radiation particles) are being investigated for their abilities to mitigate the effects of ionizing radiation. From a biological point of view, it can be predicted that exposure to ionizing radiation during missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will affect the human body in undesirable ways, e.g., increasing the risks of cataracts, cardiovascular and central nervous system diseases, carcinogenesis, as well as accelerated ageing. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risks related to deep space exploration and to develop mitigation strategies to reduce these risks to a tolerable level. By using biomarkers for radiation sensitivity, space agencies are developing extensive personalised medical examination programmes to determine an astronaut's vulnerability to radiation. Moreover, researchers are developing pharmacological solutions (e.g., radioprotectors and radiomitigators) to proactively or reactively protect astronauts during deep space exploration. Finally, research is necessary to develop more effective countermeasures for use in future human space missions, which can also lead to improvements to medical care on Earth. This review will discuss the risks space travel beyond LEO poses to astronauts, methods to monitor astronauts' health, and possible approaches to mitigate these risks.

Evolving radiological protection guidelines for exploration-class missions

International Space Station partner nations have yet to agree on career radiation dose constraints. This is of increasing concern for collaborative mission planning beyond low-Earth orbit, since it is likely that one or two long-duration missions will expose crew to a cumulative dose that approaches or exceeds their current respective limits. As with radiological effects, the cumulative health impact of the numerous other injuries and illnesses documented during spaceflight is inherently heightened with longer and farther missions, say to the Moon and Mars. This paper summarizes the origin of existing radiological constraints employed by the Canadian Space Agency and explores how to build upon these protection practices to address the challenges associated with beyond low-Earth orbit missions. The discussion then leads into a review of conventional risk metrics currently under evaluation by space-faring nations to quantify risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality. This paper concludes with a proposal for the application of an existing burden of disease model termed the Disability Adjusted Life Year, to space exploration. This model can accommodate the many health hazards of spaceflight, including ionizing radiation, on a common scale. It has the potential to serve as an intuitive communication tool for informing on the impact of spaceflight on crew health.

Towards sustainable human space exploration-priorities for radiation research to quantify and mitigate radiation risks

Human spaceflight is entering a new era of sustainable human space exploration. By 2030 humans will regularly fly to the Moon's orbit, return to the Moon's surface and preparations for crewed Mars missions will intensify. In planning these undertakings, several challenges will need to be addressed in order to ensure the safety of astronauts during their space travels. One of the important challenges to overcome, that could be a major showstopper of the space endeavor, is the exposure to the space radiation environment. There is an urgent need for quantifying, managing and limiting the detrimental health risks and electronics damage induced by space radiation exposure. Such risks raise key priority topics for space research programs. Risk limitation involves obtaining a better understanding of space weather phenomena and the complex radiation environment in spaceflight, as well as developing and applying accurate dosimetric instruments, understanding related short- and long-term health risks, and strategies for effective countermeasures to minimize both exposure to space radiation and the remaining effects post exposure. The ESA/SciSpacE Space Radiation White Paper identifies those topics and underlines priorities for future research and development, to enable safe human and robotic exploration of space beyond Low Earth Orbit.

Assessing the impact of different neutron RBEs on the all solid cancer radiation risks obtained from the Japanese A-bomb survivors data

PURPOSE

Development of a model characterizing risk variation with RBE to investigate how the incidence risk for all solid cancers combined varies with higher neutron RBEs and different organ dose types.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The model is based on RERF data with separate neutron and gamma dose information.

RESULTS

For both additive and multiplicative linear excess risks per unit organ averaged dose, a reduction of 50% in the risk coefficient per weighted dose arises when a neutron RBE of 110 is used instead of 10. Considering risk per unit liver dose, this reduction occurs for an RBE of 130 and for risks per unit colon dose for an RBE of 190. The change in the shape of the dose response curve when using higher neutron RBEs is evaluated. The curvature changed and became significantly negative for males at an RBE of 140 for colon dose, 100 for liver dose and 80 for organ averaged dose. For females this is the case at an RBE of 110, 80 and 60, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Uncertainties in neutron RBE values should be considered when radiation risks and the shape of dose responses are deduced from cancer risk data from the atomic bomb survivors.

Three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) vs. volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) in deep inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) technique in left-sided breast cancer patients-comparative analysis of dose distribution and estimation of projected secondary cancer risk

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to compare two techniques of irradiation of left-sided breast cancer patients who underwent breast-conserving surgery, three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy technique (3D-CRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), in terms of dose distribution in the planning target volume (PTV) and organs at risk (OARs). The second aim of the study was estimation of the projected risk of radiation-induced secondary cancer for both radiotherapy techniques.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

For 25 patients who underwent CT simulation in deep inspiration breath-hold (DIBH), three treatment plans were generated: one using a three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy technique and two using volumetric modulated arc therapy. First VMAT-DIBH geometry consisted of three partial arcs (ARC-DIBH 3A) and second consisted of four partial arcs (ARC-DIBH 4A). Cumulative dose-volume histograms (DVHs) were used to compare dose distributions within the PTV and OARs (heart, left anterior descending coronary artery [LAD], ipsilateral and contralateral lung [IL, CL], and contralateral breast [CB]). Normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCPs) and organ equivalent doses (OEDs) were calculated using the differential DVHs. Excess absolute risks (EARs) for second cancers were estimated using Schneider's full mechanistic dose-response model.

RESULTS

All plans fulfilled the criterium for PTV V95% ≥ 95%. The PTV coverage, homogeneity, and conformity indices were significantly better for VMAT-DIBH. VMAT showed a significantly increased mean dose and V5Gy for all OARs, but reduced LAD D_max by 15 Gy. For IL, CL, and CB, the 3D-CRT DIBH method achieved the lowest values of EAR: 28.38 per 10,000 PYs, 2.55 per 10,000 PYs, and 4.48 per 10,000 PYs (p < 0.001), compared to 40.29 per 10,000 PYs, 15.62 per 10,000 PYs, and 23.44 per 10,000 PYs for ARC-DIBH 3A plans and 41.12 per 10,000 PYs, 15.59 per 10,000 PYs, and 22.73 per 10,000 PYs for ARC-DIBH 4A plans. Both techniques provided negligibly low NTCPs for all OARs.

CONCLUSION

The study shows that VMAT-DIBH provides better OAR sparing against high doses. However, the large low-dose-bath (≤ 5 Gy) is still a concern due to the fact that a larger volume of normal tissues exposed to lower doses may increase a radiation-induced risk of secondary cancer.

Dose Limits and Countermeasures for Mitigating Radiation Risk in Moon and Mars Exploration

After decades of research on low-Earth orbit, national space agencies and private entrepreneurs are investing in exploration of the Solar system. The main health risk for human space exploration is late toxicity caused by exposure to cosmic rays. On Earth, the exposure of radiation workers is regulated by dose limits and mitigated by shielding and reducing exposure times. For space travel, different international space agencies adopt different limits, recently modified as reviewed in this paper. Shielding and reduced transit time are currently the only practical solutions to maintain acceptable risks in deep space missions.

The future of biological dosimetry in mass casualty radiation emergency response, personalized radiation risk estimation and space radiation protection

PURPOSE

The aim of this brief personal, high level review is to consider the state of the art for biological dosimetry for radiation routine and emergency response, and the potential future progress in this fascinating and active field. Four areas in which biomarkers may contribute to scientific advancement through improved dose and exposure characterization, as well as potential contributions to personalized risk estimation, are considered: emergency dosimetry, molecular epidemiology, personalized medical dosimetry, and space travel.

CONCLUSION

Ionizing radiation biodosimetry is an exciting field which will continue to benefit from active networking and collaboration with the wider fields of radiation research and radiation emergency response to ensure effective, joined up approaches to triage; radiation epidemiology to assess long term, low dose, radiation risk; radiation protection of workers, optimization and justification of radiation for diagnosis or treatment of patients in clinical uses, and protection of individuals traveling to space.