Z-score is a possible predictor of the risk of coronary artery lesion development in patients with Kawasaki disease in Japan

Development of a prediction model for progression of coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUNDS

This study aimed to identify risk factors for the progression of coronary artery lesions (CALs) in children with Kawasaki disease (KD) and to develop a nomogram prediction model.

METHODS

This is a retrospective case-control study in which the participants were categorized into three groups based on the changes of the maximum Z score (Zmax) of coronary arteries at the 1-month follow-up compared with the baseline Zmax: CALs-progressed, CALs-improved, and CALs-unchanged.

RESULTS

Of total 387 patients, 65 (27%), 319 (73%), and 3 (0.7%) patients were categorized into CALs-progressed group, CALs-improved group, and CALs-unchanged group, respectively. Six independent factors associated with CALs progression were identified, including initial IVIG resistance, baseline Zmax, the number of coronary arteries involved, C-reactive protein, albumin, and soluble interleukin-2 receptor (odds ratio: 7.19, 1.51, 2.32, 1.52, 0.86, and 1.46, respectively; all P-values < 0.01). The nomogram prediction model including these six independent risk factors yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.74 to 0.86). The accuracy of this model reached 81.7% after the Monte-Carlo Bootstrapping 1000 repetitions.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram prediction model can identify children at high risk for the progression of CALs at early stages.

IMPACT

Six independent factors associated with CALs progression were identified, including initial IVIG resistance, baseline Zmax, the number of coronary arteries involved, CRP, ALB, and sIL-2R. The prediction model we constructed can identify children at high risk for the progression of CALs at early stages and help clinicians make individualized treatment plans. Prospective, multi-centered studies with larger sample sizes are warranted to validate the power of this prediction model in children with KD.

Risk factors for coronary artery abnormalities and resistance to immunoglobulin plus ciclosporin A therapy in severe Kawasaki disease: subanalysis of the KAICA trial, randomized trial for cicrosporin A as the first-line treatment

Background

To investigate risk factors for coronary arterial abnormalities (CAAs) and resistance to treatment in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) receiving intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) plus ciclosporin A (CsA) as the first-line treatment, we performed a subanalysis of baseline data of participants in the KAICA trial, a phase 3, randomized study (JMA-ILA00174).

Methods

All data of the patients enrolled in the KAICA trial, who had a Gunma score ≥5 at diagnosis and had been randomly assigned to either IVIG (2 g/kg/24 h) plus CsA (5 mg/kg/day for 5 days) (n = 86) or IVIG alone (n = 87), were subjected to this study. CAA was defined by a Z score ≥2.5 observed within 4 weeks after treatment initiation. Baseline data including genotypes of KD susceptibility genes were compared between subgroups of patients for CAA or treatment response for each treatment group. Backword-forward stepwise logistic regression analyses were performed.

Results

Pre-Z-max, defined as the maximum among Z scores on four coronary artery branches before treatment, was higher in patients with CAA in both treatment groups and was associated with CAA in IVIG plus CsA treatment group [odds ratio (OR) = 17.0]. High serum total bilirubin level was relevant to treatment resistance only in the IVIG plus CsA group (OR = 2.34).

Conclusions

Coronary artery enlargement before treatment is a major determinant of CAA even in KD patients treated with initial IVIG treatment intensified by addition of CsA. Baseline serum total bilirubin level was a risk factor associated with resistance to IVIG plus CsA.

Status of treatment and outcome in Kawasaki disease in the Kinki area of Japan

BACKGROUND

The treatment guidelines for acute Kawasaki disease (KD) have been revised several times. Moreover, the criterion used to define coronary artery abnormalities (CAAs) has changed from the coronary artery's internal diameter to the Z-score. Treatment for KD and methods for evaluating CAAs vary between hospitals, so we investigated the actual status of acute KD treatment and development of CAAs under the 2012 Japanese treatment guidelines for acute KD.

METHODS

The 24th Japanese Nationwide Survey on Kawasaki Disease yielded 2618 patients who developed KD in the Kinki area in 2016. We sent a secondary questionnaire to each participating hospital and used the resulting data to investigate the frequency of CAAs according to Z-score, treatment by KD treatment stage, and predictors of CAAs.

RESULTS

The response rate was 80.0%. The data for 1426 patients without major data deficiencies were examined. The frequency of CAAs was 3.0% when based on coronary artery internal diameters and 8.8% when based on Z-scores. Intravenous immunoglobulins combined with corticosteroids were administered as an initial treatment in 12.8% of cases and as a second-line treatment in 16.8% of cases. Corticosteroids, cyclosporine A, infliximab, and plasma exchange were used at similar frequencies for third-line treatment. A pretreatment maximum coronary artery Z-score of ≥1.9 and age <1 year were associated with significantly higher incidences of CAAs.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the Z-score resulted in a threefold increase in the number of patients diagnosed with CAAs. A pretreatment maximum coronary artery Z-score of ≥1.9 and age <1 year are useful predictors of CAAs.

Epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and immediate outcome of Kawasaki disease: a population-based study from a tropical country

Data on Kawasaki disease from tropical countries are scarce. Hence, this population-based study aims to determine the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and outcome of Kawasaki disease in children enrolled in the Kawasaki disease registry between 2006 and 2019 in Southern Malaysia. Diagnosis of Kawasaki disease was made using standard criteria. Primary outcome measure was a coronary artery aneurysm. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the associated risk factors for coronary artery aneurysm. There were 661 Kawasaki disease, with 27% incomplete and 11% atypical presentations. Male-to-female ratio was 2:1, and median age of diagnosis was 1.4 years (interquartile range 9 to 32 months). Incidence in children of less than 5 years was 14.8 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.6 to 16.0) per 100,000 population, higher in males (19/100,000) and Chinese (22/100,000), with a gradual increase from 5.7/100,000 in 2006 to 19.6/100,000 in 2019, p < 0.001. Incidence in children between 5 and 9 years old was 1.3 (95% CI: 0.9 to 1.6) per 100,000 population and remained stable over time. There was a seasonal pattern with peak incidence during the rainy season. Out of 625 intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIG)-treated Kawasaki disease, 7.4% were resistant, and 9% had coronary artery aneurysms. Atypical presentation, male sex, late diagnosis, and IVIG resistance were independent risk factors for coronary artery aneurysms.Conclusions: Despite the tropical climate, Kawasaki disease epidemiology is similar to non-tropic regions with seasonal patterns and a rising incidence. Atypical presentation, male sex, late diagnosis, and IVIG resistance were significantly associated with coronary artery aneurysms. What is Known: • Kawasaki disease predominantly occurs in males, children less than 5 years old, and the Asian population. • Male sex, late diagnosis, incomplete Kawasaki disease, and IVIG resistance were associated with coronary artery aneurysms. What is New: • In multi-ethnic Asian countries such as Malaysia, ethnic Chinese have a higher prevalence of Kawasaki disease compared to other ethnicities. • Kawasaki disease with atypical presentation can occur in both complete and incomplete Kawasaki disease and is significantly associated with a coronary artery aneurysm.