Infection dynamics in frog populations with different histories of decline caused by a deadly disease

Constant-temperature predictions underestimate growth of a fungal amphibian pathogen under individual host thermal profiles

Ectotherm body temperatures fluctuate with environmental variability and host behavior, which may influence host-pathogen interactions. Fungal pathogens are a major threat to ectotherms and may be highly responsive to the fluctuating thermal profiles of individual hosts, especially cool-loving fungi exposed to high host temperatures. However, most studies estimate pathogen thermal performance based on averages of host or surrogate environmental temperatures, potentially missing effects of short-term host temperature shifts such as daily or hourly heat spikes. We recorded individual thermal profiles of Australian rainforest frogs using temperature-sensitive radio-transmitters. We then reproduced a subset of individual thermal profiles in growth chambers containing cultures of the near-global amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) to investigate how realistic host temperature profiles affect Bd growth. We focused on thermal profiles that exceed the thermal optimum of Bd because the effects of realistic heat spikes on Bd growth are unresolved. Our laboratory incubation experiment revealed that Bd growth varied in response to relatively small differences in heat spike characteristics of individual frog thermal profiles, such as a single degree or a few hours, highlighting the importance of individual host behaviors in predicting population-level disease dynamics. The fungus also grew better than predicted under the most extreme and unpredictable frog temperature profile, recovering from two days of extreme (nearly 32 °C) heat spikes without negative effects on overall growth, suggesting we are underestimating the growth potential of the pathogen in nature. Combined with the previous finding that Bd reduces host heat tolerance, our study suggests that this pathogen may carry a competitive edge over hosts in the face of anthropogenic climate change.

Newcastle disease virus transmission dynamics in wild peridomestic birds in the United Arab Emirates

To understand the dynamics of a pathogen in an animal population, one must assess how the infection status of individuals changes over time. With wild animals, this can be very challenging because individuals can be difficult to trap and sample, even more so since they are tested with imperfect diagnostic techniques. Multi-event capture-recapture models allow analysing longitudinal capture data of individuals whose infection status is assessed using imperfect tests. In this study, we used a two-year dataset from a longitudinal field study of peridomestic wild bird populations in the United Arab Emirates during which thousands of birds from various species were captured, sampled and tested for Newcastle disease virus exposure using a serological test. We developed a multi-event capture-recapture model to estimate important demographic and epidemiological parameters of the disease. The modelling outputs provided important insights into the understanding of Newcastle disease dynamics in peridomestics birds, which varies according to ecological and epidemiological parameters, and useful information in terms of surveillance strategies. To our knowledge, this study is the first attempt to model the dynamics of Newcastle disease in wild bird populations by combining longitudinal capture data and serological test results. Overall, it showcased that multi-event capture-recapture models represent a suitable method to analyse imperfect capture data and make reliable inferences on infectious disease dynamics in wild populations.

Mechanisms underlying host persistence following amphibian disease emergence determine appropriate management strategies

Emerging infectious diseases have caused many species declines, changes in communities and even extinctions. There are also many species that persist following devastating declines due to disease. The broad mechanisms that enable host persistence following declines include evolution of resistance or tolerance, changes in immunity and behaviour, compensatory recruitment, pathogen attenuation, environmental refugia, density-dependent transmission and changes in community composition. Here we examine the case of chytridiomycosis, the most important wildlife disease of the past century. We review the full breadth of mechanisms allowing host persistence, and synthesise research on host, pathogen, environmental and community factors driving persistence following chytridiomycosis-related declines and overview the current evidence and the information required to support each mechanism. We found that for most species the mechanisms facilitating persistence have not been identified. We illustrate how the mechanisms that drive long-term host population dynamics determine the most effective conservation management strategies. Therefore, understanding mechanisms of host persistence is important because many species continue to be threatened by disease, some of which will require intervention. The conceptual framework we describe is broadly applicable to other novel disease systems.

Occurrence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Sweden: higher infection prevalence in southern species

The chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused worldwide declines in amphibian populations. While Bd is widespread in southern and central Europe, its occurrence and distribution in northernmost Europe is mostly unknown. We surveyed for Bd in breeding anurans in Sweden by sampling 1917 amphibians from 101 localities and 3 regions in Sweden (southern, northern and central). We found that Bd was widespread in southern and central Sweden, occurring in all 9 investigated species and in 45.5% of the 101 localities with an overall prevalence of 13.8%. No infected individuals were found in the 4 northern sites sampled. The records from central Sweden represent the northernmost records of Bd in Europe. While the proportion of sites positive for Bd was similar between the southern and central regions, prevalence was much higher in the southern region. This was because southern species with a distribution mainly restricted to southernmost Sweden had a higher prevalence than widespread generalist species. The nationally red-listed green toad Bufotes variabilis and the fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina had the highest prevalence (61.4 and 48.9%, respectively). Across species, Bd prevalence was strongly positively, correlated with water temperature at the start of egg laying. However, no individuals showing visual signs of chytridiomycosis were found in the field. These results indicate that Bd is widespread and common in southern and central Sweden with southern species, breeding in higher temperatures and with longer breeding periods, having higher prevalence. However, the impact of Bd on amphibian populations in northernmost Europe remains unknown.

Seasonal migrations, body temperature fluctuations, and infection dynamics in adult amphibians

Risks of parasitism vary over time, with infection prevalence often fluctuating with seasonal changes in the annual cycle. Identifying the biological mechanisms underlying seasonality in infection can enable better prediction and prevention of future infection peaks. Obtaining longitudinal data on individual infections and traits across seasons throughout the annual cycle is perhaps the most effective means of achieving this aim, yet few studies have obtained such information for wildlife. Here, we tracked spiny common toads (Bufo spinosus) within and across annual cycles to assess seasonal variation in movement, body temperatures and infection from the fungal parasite, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Across annual cycles, toads did not consistently sustain infections but instead gained and lost infections from year to year. Radio-tracking showed that infected toads lose infections during post-breeding migrations, and no toads contracted infection following migration, which may be one explanation for the inter-annual variability in Bd infections. We also found pronounced seasonal variation in toad body temperatures. Body temperatures approached 0 °C during winter hibernation but remained largely within the thermal tolerance range of Bd. These findings provide direct documentation of migratory recovery (i.e., loss of infection during migration) and escape in a wild population. The body temperature reductions that we observed during hibernation warrant further consideration into the role that this period plays in seasonal Bd dynamics.

Cryptic disease-induced mortality may cause host extinction in an apparently stable host-parasite system

The decline of wildlife populations due to emerging infectious disease often shows a common pattern: the parasite invades a naive host population, producing epidemic disease and a population decline, sometimes with extirpation. Some susceptible host populations can survive the epidemic phase and persist with endemic parasitic infection. Understanding host-parasite dynamics leading to persistence of the system is imperative to adequately inform conservation practice. Here we combine field data, statistical and mathematical modelling to explore the dynamics of the apparently stable Rhinoderma darwinii-Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) system. Our results indicate that Bd-induced population extirpation may occur even in the absence of epidemics and where parasite prevalence is relatively low. These empirical findings are consistent with previous theoretical predictions showing that highly pathogenic parasites are able to regulate host populations even at extremely low prevalence, highlighting that disease threats should be investigated as a cause of population declines even in the absence of an overt increase in mortality.

White blood cell profiles in amphibians help to explain disease susceptibility following temperature shifts

Temperature variability, and in particular temperature decreases, can increase susceptibility of amphibians to infections by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, the effects of temperature shifts on the immune systems of Bd-infected amphibians are unresolved. We acclimated frogs to 16 °C and 26 °C (baseline), simultaneously transferred them to an intermediate temperature (21 °C) and inoculated them with Bd (treatment), and tracked their infection levels and white blood cell profiles over six weeks. Average weekly infection loads were consistently higher in 26°C-history frogs, a group that experienced a 5 °C temperature decrease, than in 16°C-history frogs, a group that experienced a 5 °C temperature increase, but this pattern only approached statistical significance. The 16°C-acclimated frogs had high neutrophil:lymphocyte (N:L) ratios (suggestive of a hematopoietic stress response) at baseline, which were conserved post-treatment. In contrast, the 26°C-acclimated frogs had low N:L ratios at baseline which reversed to high N:L ratios post-treatment (suggestive of immune system activation). Our results suggest that infections were less physiologically taxing for the 16°C-history frogs than the 26°C-history frogs because they had already adjusted immune parameters in response to challenging conditions (cold). Our findings provide a possible mechanistic explanation for observations that amphibians are more susceptible to Bd infection following temperature decreases compared to increases and underscore the consensus that increased temperature variability associated with climate change may increase the impact of infectious diseases.

Using a Bayesian network to clarify areas requiring research in a host-pathogen system

Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease-driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host-pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious-disease systems.

Amphibian species traits, evolutionary history and environment predict Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection patterns, but not extinction risk

The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (B. dendrobatidis) has emerged as a major agent of amphibian extinction, requiring conservation intervention for many susceptible species. Identifying susceptible species is challenging, but many aspects of species biology are predicted to influence the evolution of host resistance, tolerance, or avoidance strategies towards disease. In turn, we may expect species exhibiting these distinct strategies to differ in their ability to survive epizootic disease outbreaks. Here, we test for phylogenetic and trait-based patterns of B. dendrobatidis infection risk and infection intensity among 302 amphibian species by compiling a global data set of B. dendrobatidis infection surveys across 95 sites. We then use best-fit models that associate traits, taxonomy and environment with B. dendrobatidis infection risk and intensity to predict host disease mitigation strategies (tolerance, resistance, avoidance) for 122 Neotropical amphibian species that experienced epizootic B. dendrobatidis outbreaks, and noted species persistence or extinction from these events. Aspects of amphibian species life history, habitat use and climatic niche were consistently linked to variation in B. dendrobatidis infection patterns across sites around the world. However, predicted B. dendrobatidis infection risk and intensity based on site environment and species traits did not reveal a consistent pattern between the predicted host disease mitigation strategy and extinction outcome. This suggests that either tolerant or resistant species may have no advantage in ameliorating disease during epizootic events, or that other factors drive the persistence of amphibian populations during chytridiomycosis outbreaks. These results suggest that using a trait-based approach may allow us to identify species with resistance or tolerance to endemic B. dendrobatidis infections, but that this approach may be insufficient to ultimately identify species at risk of extinction from epizootics.

Differential patterns of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in relict amphibian populations following severe disease-associated declines

Global amphibian biodiversity has declined dramatically in the past 4 decades, and many amphibian species have declined to near extinction as a result of emergence of the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, persistent or recovering populations of several amphibian species have recently been rediscovered, and such populations may illustrate how amphibian species that are highly susceptible to chytridiomycosis may survive in the presence of Bd. We conducted field surveys for Bd infection in 7 species of Costa Rican amphibians (all species that have declined to near extinction but for which isolated populations persist) to characterize infection profiles in highly Bd-susceptible amphibians post-decline. We found highly variable patterns in infection, with some species showing low prevalence (~10%) and low infection intensity and others showing high infection prevalence (>80%) and either low or high infection intensity. Across sites, infection rates were negatively associated with mean annual precipitation, and infection intensity across sites was negatively associated with mean average temperatures. Our results illustrate that even the most Bd-susceptible amphibians can persist in Bd-enzootic ecosystems, and that multiple ecological or evolutionary mechanisms likely exist for host-pathogen co-existence between Bd and the most Bd-susceptible amphibian species. Continued monitoring of these populations is necessary to evaluate population trends (continuing decline, stability, or population growth). These results should inform efforts to mitigate impacts of Bd on amphibians in the field.

Robust calling performance in frogs infected by a deadly fungal pathogen

Reproduction is an energetically costly behavior for many organisms, including species with mating systems in which males call to attract females. In these species, calling males can often attract more females by displaying more often, with higher intensity, or at certain frequencies. Male frogs attract females almost exclusively by calling, and we know little about how pathogens, including the globally devastating fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, influence calling effort and call traits. A previous study demonstrated that the nightly probability of calling by male treefrogs, Litoria rheocola, is elevated when they are in good body condition and are infected by B. dendrobatidis. This suggests that infections may cause males to increase their present investment in mate attraction to compensate for potential decreases in future reproduction. However, if infection by B. dendrobatidis decreases the attractiveness of their calls, infected males might experience decreased reproductive success despite increases in calling effort. We examined whether calls emitted by L. rheocola infected by B. dendrobatidis differed from those of uninfected individuals in duration, pulse rate, dominant frequency, call rate, or intercall interval, the attributes commonly linked to mate choice. We found no effects of fungal infection status or infection intensity on any call attribute. Our results indicate that infected males produce calls similar in all the qualities we measured to those of uninfected males. It is therefore likely that the calls of infected and uninfected males should be equally attractive to females. The increased nightly probability of calling previously demonstrated for infected males in good condition may therefore lead to greater reproductive success than that of uninfected males. This could reduce the effectiveness of natural selection for resistance to infection, but could increase the effectiveness of selection for infection tolerance, the ability to limit the harm caused by infection, such as reductions in body condition.