Higher northern latitude normalized difference vegetation index and growing season trends from 1982 to 1999

Decadal-scale variability and warming affect spring timing and forest growth across the western Great Lakes region

The Great Lakes region of North America has warmed by 1-2 °C on average since pre-industrial times, with the most pronounced changes observable during winter and spring. Interannual variability in temperatures remains high, however, due to the influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns that modulate the warming trend across years. Variations in spring temperatures determine growing season length and plant phenology, with implications for whole ecosystem function. Studying how both internal climate variability and the "secular" warming trend interact to produce trends in temperature is necessary to estimate potential ecological responses to future warming scenarios. This study examines how external anthropogenic forcing and decadal-scale variability influence spring temperatures across the western Great Lakes region and estimates the sensitivity of regional forests to temperature using long-term growth records from tree-rings and satellite data. Using a modeling approach designed to test for regime shifts in dynamic time series, this work shows that mid-continent spring climatology was strongly influenced by the 1976/1977 phase change in North Pacific atmospheric circulation, and that regional forests show a strengthening response to spring temperatures during the last half-century.

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving forces of vegetation cover variations in the Chengdu-Chongqing region of China under the background of rapid urbanization

The research on the spatiotemporal changes and driving factors of ecosystems in rapidly urbanizing regions has always been a topic of widespread concern. As the fourth pole of China's economic development, the research on the Chengdu-Chongqing region has reference significance for the urbanization process of developing countries such as India, Brazil, and South Africa.The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has been widely applied in studies of plant and ecosystem changes. Based on MODIS NDVI data from 2001 to 2020 and meteorological data of the same period, this study reveals the evolution of NDVI in the Chengdu-Chongqing region from three aspects: the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of NDVI, the prediction of future trends in vegetation coverage, and the response of vegetation to climate change and human activities. During the period of plant growth, the mean NDVI achieved a value of 0.78, and the vegetation coverage rate is increasing year by year. According to the Hurst index, the future NDVI in Chengdu-Chongqing region will tend to decrease, and its trend is opposite to that of the past period of time. The Chengdu-Chongqing region vegetation positively affected by human activities is greater than those negatively affected, and in terms of vegetation degradation, the impact of human activities is greater than climate change.

Magnitude and direction of green-up date in response to drought depend on background climate over Mongolian grassland

Increasing drought is one major consequence of ongoing global climate change and is expected to cause significant changes in vegetation phenology, especially for naturally vulnerable ecosystems such as grassland. However, the linkage between the response characteristic of green-up date (GUD) to drought and background climate remains largely unknown. Here, we focused on how the GUD of Mongolian grassland responds to extreme drought events (EDE). We first extracted the GUD from the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index data during 2001-2020 and identified the preseason EDE using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index data. Subsequently, we quantified the response of GUD to preseason EDE (DGUD) in each pixel as the difference in GUD between drought and normal years. The effect of 12 factors on DGUD was analyzed using the random forest algorithm. The results showed that the GUD under EDE may delay or advance by > 20 days compared to normal years. For the regions with mean annual temperature > -2 °C, the GUD was delayed under EDE due to the dominant role of water restriction on GUD, while the GUD was advanced under EDE in colder areas due to the warmer temperature during drought. However, the magnitude of delay in GUD under drought was greater in regions with less precipitation and more severe droughts. Our results could help to develop appropriate management strategies to mitigate the impacts of drought on grasslands.

Lagged feedback of peak season photosynthetic activities on local surface temperature in Inner Mongolia, China

Increased vegetation peak growth and phenological shifts toward spring have been observed in response to climate warming in the temperate regions. Such changes have the potential to modify warming by perturbing land‒atmosphere energy exchanges; however, the signs and magnitudes of biophysical feedback on surface temperature in different biomes are largely unknown. Here, we synthesized information from vegetation growth proxies, land surface temperature (LST), and surface energy balance factors (surface evapotranspiration (ET), albedo, and broadband emissivity (BBE)) to investigate the variations in timing (PPT) and productivity (PPmax) of seasonal peak photosynthesis and their time-lagged biophysical feedbacks to the post-season LST in Inner Mongolia (IM) during 2001-2020. We found that increased PPmax, rather than advanced PPT, exhibited a significant impact on LST, with divergent signs and magnitudes across diurnal periods and among different biomes. In the grassland biome, increased PPmax cooled both LST during daytime (LSTday) and nighttime (LSTnight) throughout the post-season period, with a more pronounced response during daytime and diminishing gradually from July to September. This cooling effect on LST was primarily attributed to enhanced ET, as evidenced by the greater effect of ET cooling than that of albedo warming and BBE cooling based on a structural equation model (SEM). In the forest biome, increased PPmax led to a symmetrical warming effect on LSTday and LSTnight, and none of the surface energy balance factors were identified as significant intermediate explanatory factors for the observed warming effect. Moreover, the responses of average LST (LSTmean) and diurnal temperature range of LST (LSTDTR) to variations in PPmax were consistent with those of LSTday at two biomes. The observations above elucidate the divergent feedback mechanisms of vegetation peak growth on LST among different biomes and diurnal cycles, which could facilitate the improvement of the realistic parameterization of surface processes in global climate models.

Analysis of Growing Season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Variation and Its Influencing Factors on the Mongolian Plateau Based on Google Earth Engine

Frequent dust storms on the Mongolian Plateau have adversely affected the ecological environmental quality of East Asia. Studying the dynamic changes in vegetation coverage is one of the important means of evaluating ecological environmental quality in the region. In this study, we used Landsat remote sensing images from 2000 to 2019 on the Mongolian Plateau to extract yearly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data during the growing season. We used partial correlation analysis and the Hurst index to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the NDVI before and after the establishment of nature reserves and their influencing factors on the GEE cloud platform. The results showed that (1) the proportion of the region with an upwards trend of NDVI increased from 52.21% during 2000-2009 to 67.93% during 2010-2019, indicating a clear improvement in vegetation due to increased precipitation; (2) the increase in precipitation and positive human activities drove the increase in the NDVI in the study region from 2000 to 2019; and (3) the overall trend of the NDVI in the future is expected to be stable with a slight decrease, and restoration potential is greater for water bodies and grasslands. Therefore, it is imperative to strengthen positive human activities to safeguard vegetation. These findings furnish scientific evidence for environmental management and the development of ecological engineering initiatives on the Mongolian Plateau.

Chilling injury monitoring and intensity identification of dryland maize in Heilongjiang

BACKGROUND

Accurate and timely access to large-scale crop damage information provides an essential reference for responding to agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation needs and ensuring food production security. The present study aimed to reveal the new characteristics of low-temperature cold damage to maize in the context of climate warming. Heilongjiang, one of the provinces with the highest latitude, the most significant climate change and the largest maize production in China, was taken as the study area. We combined meteorological stations and MODIS remote sensing data to spatially identify the occurrence and intensity of cold damage to maize based on the growing season temperature distance level index, as well as to assess the extent of cold damage.

RESULTS

The main findings are: (i) The frequency and intensity range of cold damage in the growing season (May to September) in Heilongjiang Province from 1991 to 2020 against climate warming showed a decreasing trend. The average temperature from 1991 to 2000 was 17.777 °C, with seven occurrences of maize cold damage years, of which 5 years comprised widespread cold damage and 2 years comprised regional cold damage. The average temperature from 2000 to 2010 was 18.137 °C, with cold damage three times, of which 2 years comprised regional cold damage and 1 year comprised widespread cold damage. The average temperature from 2010 to 2020 was 18.130 °C, with one maize cold damage year occurring, which comprised regional cold damage. The frequency of maize chilling injury decreased significantly from 1991 to 2020, from 0.23 in 1991-2000 to 0.1 in 2000-2010 and, finally, to 0.03 in 2010-2020. (ii) The good consistency between MODIS_LST data and temperature data from meteorological stations suggests that MODIS_LST data can be used to build a temperature remote sensing estimation model for spatially extensive cold damage monitoring and intensity discrimination. (iii) Taking 2009 as an example of a large-scale cold damage year, the spatial discrimination of maize cold damage intensity shows that the spatial distribution of chilling injury intensity has no obvious geographical features. The intensity of cold damage was mainly mild cold damage. According to administrative regions, the scope of chilling injury was the largest in Mudanjiang City, Heihe City, and Jixi City, accounting for 91.56%, 86.25%, and 84.91%, respectively. The areas with the most extensive range of severe chilling injuries were the Great Khingan Mountains region, Heihe City, Mudanjiang City, Yichun City, and Jixi City.

CONCLUSION

In the context of climate warming, the frequency and intensity range of maize cold damage showed a decreasing trend from 1991 to 2020 in Heilongjiang Province. The results of cold damage identification based on MODIS_LST data are accurate and can improve the spatial accuracy. The results of the present study provide a reference and guidance for dealing with the occurrence and defence of spatially refined cold damage. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Monitoring land cover changes and droughts using statistical analysis and multi-sensor remote sensing data

Climate change is of paramount importance for ecosystems, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. The major aim of the current study is to monitor vegetation and land use changes, and run drought assessment using field and satellite data. The main precipitation proportions in the studied region are influenced by the Westerlies, meaning that any variations in these precipitation systems significantly impact the region. The utilized data entailed MODIS images for 16- and 8-day intervals between 2000 and 2013, TM and OLI sensor images recorded in 1985 and 2013, precipitation network data of TRMM satellite between 2000 and 2013, and synoptic data 32-year period. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test was used to monitor temporal changes in meteorological station data in annual and seasonal scales. The results indicated that there was a downward trend in 50% of the meteorological stations in the annual scale. This falling trend was statistically significant at the level of 95%. At the end, drought was assessed using PCI, APCI, VSWI, and NVSWI. The results showed that vegetation, forest, pasture, and agriculture areas recorded the strongest correlations with initial precipitation at the beginning of the study. Based on interactions among various factors influencing vegetation indices, reduction in green vegetation, especially the area of oak forests in the studied period, is around 95,744 hectares, which is attributed to lower precipitation rate. Increasing of agricultural land and water zones during the studied years is the result of human management and depends on how surface and underground water resources are exploited.

Trend relationship between mountain normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) across two decades: implication for water quality within the Lesotho Highlands, Drakensberg, South Africa

There are growing concerns on contribution of vegetation dynamics to atmospheric turbidity and quality of regional water towers. The study sought to determine the trends in the MODIS/TERRA-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) for Lesotho Highland over 2000-2020. The predictive relationship between the two variables was also examined using regression analysis. Irrespective of yearly AOD patterns, the AOD showed biphasic patterns peaking between mid-winter to early spring (July-October) (highest) and autumn (Feb-April) (next highest), and lowest in the summer (Nov-January). The monthly NDVI was largest in January-March (summer-early fall) with smaller values in winter and spring. This seasonality can be related to the peak of anthropogenic biomass combustion during the winter and strong winds during the spring and early summer. The AOD relationship with NDVI showed quadratic patterns peaking and plunging with changes in season. About 30-80% (R² = 0.3-0.8%) changes in annual AOD from 2000 to 2020 were explainable by the dynamics of NDVI indicating that increased NDVI contributes to about a 50% decrease in AOD in the Lesotho Highlands. However, an outlier trend was observed in 2007 (R² = 13%). Incidences of high AOD in months of high NDVI may be indicative of traveling aerosols, i.e., aerosols from non-local sources/activity. On the other hand, high AOD in months of low NDVI implicates local aerosol sources. Trend relationship studies on vegetation loss and AOD in mountain areas of other regions could improve knowledge of contaminant dynamics and risk implications for downstream populations.

A 20-year vegetation cover change and its response to climate factors in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area under the background of climate change

Introduction

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is located in the south subtropical area along the southeast coast of China, which is one of the world-class urban agglomerations and an important part for economic development. In order to investigate the change of vegetation indexes and its response to climate factors in such circumstance of climate change, this study is an important component in the protection and establishment of the ecological environment in the GBA.

Methods

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-Enhanced Vegetation Index (MODIS-EVI) and climate data were recorded from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Resource and Environment Science Data Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Trend analysis, Mann-Kendall (MK) Test and rescaled range analysis (R/S Analysis) offer an effective way of analyzing the correlation between the vegetation cover change and climate factors.

Results

The results provide important insights into the following aspects: (1) The changes of climate factors (temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and sunshine radiation) are fluctuated in GBA, with no obvious increasing or decreasing trend. It comprehensively exhibited an extremely slow development of humidify and warming. (2) It presents an increasing trend of EVI in GBA, with the rate of 0.0045/a. The range of increase is in the middle level (0.4 ≤ EVI<0.6) based on the EVI. The vegetation cover in GBA is improved comprehensively, the area of vegetation improvement is larger than the area of vegetation degression, with the extremely improved vegetation cover area (66.98%) and the extremely degraded vegetation cover area (5.70%). There are obvious differences and agglomerations in the distribution of the EVI trends. (3) In future, the changing trends will be combinedly affected be various factors, and there is no obvious factor temporarily. The improved vegetation cover area (over 80%) are predicted. (4) There are significant spatiotemporal differences in the annual effects of EVI on various climate factors comprehensively. Wind speed and relative humidity have the strongest correlations with EVI; the area of significant correlation is more than 40% of the pixels. The correlation between temperature and EVI is second, with the area of significant correlation over 20% of the pixels. The precipitation and sunshine radiation weakly correlated with EVI, with the area of significant correlation is less than 5% of the pixels.

Discussion

The result of this study indicated that the EVI changing trend in the future by R/S analysis method is affected by climate and human factors together and there are no significant factors. The result indicated precipitation has no significant correlation with EVI trends in the Hot and humid area with mean precipitation of 1800mm. However, there is a significant positive correlation between the EVI trend and two climate factors (relative humidity and wind speed). In the terms of spatial distribution, the influence of temperature to EVI is complex in GBA, the spatial distribution of correlation is scattered.

Changes in vegetation cover and its influencing factors in the inner Mongolia reach of the yellow river basin from 2001 to 2018

Vegetation cover is one of the primary indicators of changes in ecosystems. China has implemented a few large-scale afforestation programs in the arid and semi-arid areas, including the Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River Basin to prevent and control soil erosion. Although these programs have alleviated the environment problems in the region to a certain extent, the effects of the increasing vegetation greenness on the environments under climate change remain controversial for the argued large water consumption. In this study, the spatio-temporal characteristics of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the vegetation coverage area of the study area based on remote sensing data from 2001 to 2018. Meanwhile, using the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) method - an excellent algorithm for ensemble learning methods - to forecast vegetation growth in the following ten years. The results indicated that, despite of the spatial heterogeneity, the vegetation NDVI exhibited a significant increase across the study area. Based on the NDVI trend, the area of improved vegetation in this region was much larger than the degraded area from 2001 to 2018, accounting for 85.9% and 8.6% of the total vegetation coverage area, respectively. However, the forecasting result by the Hurst index shows the future growth and carbon sequestration capacity in most areas showed a declining trend. Further, based on the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project - Phase 6 (CMIP6) data, the XGBoost method is used to predict the growth status and carbon sequestration capacity of vegetation in this area under different climate scenarios. The results showed that different climate scenarios had little effect on vegetation growth from 2019 to 2030. Results from this study may provide basis for the protection of ecological environment in the Inner Mongolia Reach of the Yellow River Basin.

Analysing the spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation dynamics and their responses to climatic parameters in Meghalaya from 2001 to 2020

Quantification of the spatio-temporal trends in vegetation dynamics and its drivers is crucial to ensure sustainable management of ecosystems. The north-eastern state of Meghalaya possessing an idiosyncratic climatic regime has been undergoing tremendous pressure in the past decades considering the recent climate change scenario. A robust trend analysis has been performed using the MODIS NDVI (MOD13Q1) data (2001-2020) along with multi-source gridded climate data (precipitation and temperature) to detect changes in the vegetation dynamics and corresponding climatic variables by employing the Theil-Sen Median trend test and Mann-Kendall test (τ). The spatial variability of trends was gauged with respect to 7 major forest types, administrative boundaries and different elevational gradients found in the area. Results revealed a large positive inter-annual trend (85.48%) with a minimal negative trend (14.52%) in the annual mean NDVI. Mean Annual Precipitation presents a negative trend in 66.97% of the area mainly concentrated in the eastern portion of the state while the western portion displays a positive trend in about 33.03% of the area. Temperature exhibits a 98% positive trend in Meghalaya. Pettitt Change Point Detection revealed three major breakpoints viz., 2010, 2012 and 2014 in the NDVI values from 2001 to 2020 over the forested region of Meghalaya. A consistent future vegetation trend (87.78%) in Meghalaya was identified through Hurst Exponent. A positive correlation between vegetation and temperature was observed in about 82.81% of the area. The western portion of the state was seen to reflect a clear correlation between NDVI and rainfall as compared to the eastern portion where NDVI is correlated more with temperature than rainfall. A gradual deviation of rainfall towards the west was identified which might be feedback of the increasing significant greening observed in the state in the recent decades. This study, therefore, serves as a decadal archive of forest dynamics and also provides an insight into the long-term impact of climate change on vegetation which would further help in investigating and projecting the future ecosystem dynamics in Meghalaya.

LAI-Based Phenological Changes and Climate Sensitivity Analysis in the Three-River Headwaters Region

Global climate changes have a great impact on terrestrial ecosystems. Vegetation is an important component of ecosystems, and the impact of climate changes on ecosystems can be determined by studying vegetation phenology. Vegetation phenology refers to the phenomenon of periodic changes in plants, such as germination, flowering and defoliation, with the seasonal change of climate during the annual growth cycle, and it is considered to be one of the most efficient indicators to monitor climate changes. This study collected the global land surface satellite leaf area index (GLASS LAI) products, meteorological data sets and other auxiliary data in the Three-River headwaters region from 2001 to 2018; rebuilt the vegetation LAI annual growth curve by using the asymmetric Gaussian (A-G) fitting method and extracted the three vegetation phenological data (including Start of Growing Season (SOS), End of Growing Season (EOS) and Length of Growing Season (LOS)) by the maximum slope method. In addition, it also integrated Sen’s trend analysis method and the Mann-Kendall test method to explore the temporal and spatial variation trends of vegetation phenology and explored the relationship between vegetation phenology and meteorological factors through a partial correlation analysis and multiple linear regression models. The results of this study showed that: (1) the SOS of vegetation in the Three-River headwaters region is concentrated between the beginning and the end of May, with an interannual change rate of −0.14 d/a. The EOS of vegetation is concentrated between the beginning and the middle of October, with an interannual change rate of 0.02 d/a. The LOS of vegetation is concentrated between 4 and 5 months, with an interannual change rate of 0.21 d/a. (2) Through the comparison and verification with the vegetation phenological data observed at the stations, it was found that the precision of the vegetation phonology extracted by the A-G method and the maximum slope method based on GLASS LAI data is higher (MAE is 7.6 d, RMSE is 8.4 d) and slightly better than the vegetation phenological data (MAE is 9.9 d, RMSE is 10.9 d) extracted based on the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer normalized difference vegetation index (MODIS NDVI) product. (3) The correlation between the SOS of vegetation and the average temperature in March–May is the strongest. The SOS of vegetation is advanced by 1.97 days for every 1 °C increase in the average temperature in March–May; the correlation between the EOS of vegetation and the cumulative sunshine duration in August–October is the strongest. The EOS of vegetation is advanced by 0.07 days for every 10-h increase in the cumulative sunshine duration in August–October.

Aboveground Biomass of Wetland Vegetation Under Climate Change in the Western Songnen Plain

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of aboveground biomass (AGB) is crucial for investigating the wetland ecosystem carbon cycle. In this paper, we explored the spatiotemporal change of aboveground biomass and its response to climate change in a marsh wetland of western Songen Plain by using field measured AGB data and vegetation index derived from MODIS datasets. The results showed that the AGB could be established by the power function between measured AGB density and the annual maximum NDVI (NDVI_max) of marsh: Y = 302.06 × NDVI_max ^1.9817. The averaged AGB of marshes showed a significant increase of 2.04 g⋅C/m²/a, with an average AGB value of about 111.01 g⋅C/m² over the entire western Songnen Plain. For the influence of precipitation and temperature, we found that the annual mean temperature had a smaller effect on the distribution of marsh AGB than that of the total precipitation in the western Songnen Plain. Increased precipitation in summer and autumn would increase AGB by promoting marshes' vegetation growth. In addition, we found that the minimum temperature (T_min) and maximum temperatures (T_max) have an asymmetric effect on marsh AGB on the western Songnen Plain: warming T_max has a significant impact on AGB of marsh vegetation, while warming at night can non-significantly increase the AGB of marsh wetland. This research is expected to provide theoretical guidance for the restoration, protection, and adaptive management of wetland vegetation in the western Songnen Plain.

A Decrease in the Daily Maximum Temperature during Global Warming Hiatus Causes a Delay in Spring Phenology in the China–DPRK–Russia Cross-Border Area

Spring phenology is the most sensitive indicator of climate change and exploring its response to climate change has important implications for ecosystem processes in the study area. The temperature changes before and after the global warming hiatus may affect the spatiotemporal pattern of land surface phenology. In this paper, taking the China–DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea)–Russia cross-border region as an example, based on GIMMS NDVI data, the Polyfit-Maximum method was used to extract the start date of the vegetation growing season (SOS). The variation trend of SOS and its response to climate change were analyzed in the early (1982–1998) and late (1998–2015) periods of the warming hiatus. At the regional scale, the spatial distribution of the SOS in the China–DPRK–Russia (CDR) cross-border area presents an elevation gradient, which is earlier in high-elevation areas and later in low-elevation areas. The temporal and spatial trend of SOS is mainly correlated by daytime maximum temperature (Tmax). The significant increase in Tmax in the early period promoted the advance of SOS (0.47 days/year), and the decrease in Tmax in the later period caused the delay of SOS (0.51 days/year). While the main influencing factor of the SOS changes in the region in the early and late periods was Tmax, the response of the SOS changes in China, DPRK and Russia to climate change also changed with the dramatic temperature changes during the warming hiatus. The Chinese side is increasingly responding to Tmax, while the North Korean side is becoming less responsive to climatic factors, and precipitation and radiation on the Russian side are driving the advance of the SOS.

Dendrochronology-Based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Reconstruction in the Qinling Mountains, North-Central China

Larix chinensis Beissn., as a native, dominant and climate-sensitive coniferous species at Mount Taibai timberline, Qinling mountains, is rarely disturbed by anthropogenic activities; thus, it is an ideal proxy for the investigation of climate change or vegetation evolution. In this study, we applied dendrochronological methods to the L. chinensis tree-ring series from Mt. Taibai and investigated the relationships between tree-ring widths and NDVI/climate factors using Pearson correlation analysis. On the basis of the remarkable positive correlations (r = 0.726, p < 0.01, n = 23) between local July normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI) and tree-ring width indices, the regional 146-year annual maximum vegetation density was reconstructed using a regression model. The reconstructed NDVI series tracked the observed data well, as the trans-function accounted for 52.8% of observed NDVI variance during AD 1991–2013. After applying an 11-year moving average, five dense vegetation coverage periods and six sparse vegetation coverage periods were clearly presented. At a decadal scale, this reconstruction was reasonably and negatively correlated with a nearby historical-record-based dryness/wetness index (DWI), precisely verifying that local vegetation cover was principally controlled by hydrothermal variations. Spectral analysis unveiled the existence of 2–3-year, 2–4-year, 5–7-year and 7–11-year cycles, which may potentially reflect the connection between local NDVI evolution and larger-scale circulations, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and solar activity. This study is of great significance for providing a long-term perspective on the dynamics of vegetation cover in the Qinling mountains, and could help to guide expectations of future forest variations.

The Contrasting Effects of Local Environmental Conditions on Tree Growth between Populations at Different Latitudes

Current widely used climate envelope approaches, i.e., correlations between climatic variables and the presence of a species, simulate responses for the whole species and predict future ranges based mainly on climatic suitability. However, short-term tree responses to climate change will take place within current populations, and these populations, acclimated to their local environments, are not likely to respond similarly to climate change. Thus, to develop reliable forecasts of forest responses to climate change, this variability among populations needs to be considered. In this study, we tested the effect of environmental conditions on the growth of two common maple species (Acer rubrum L. and A. saccharum Marshall) at two different latitudes within their northern distributional ranges. We collected increment cores, and analyzed year to year variabilities in tree growth as a function of temperature and precipitation. The results suggest divergent responses between species and between populations of the same species. Predicted growth under different climate scenarios for the region suggested that the growth of southern populations might decrease, while northern populations might still be able to retain their current growth. These results document the population-level responses to environmental conditions of these two species, providing latitude-specific guidance for future forest distribution prediction.

Exploring Ecosystem Functioning in Spain with Gross and Net Primary Production Time Series

The main objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of gross and net primary production (GPP and NPP) in Peninsular Spain across 15 years (2004–2018) and determine the relationship of those carbon fluxes with precipitation and air temperature. A time series study of daily GPP, NPP, mean air temperature, and monthly standardized precipitation index (SPI) at 1 km spatial resolution is conducted to analyze the ecosystem status and adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Spatial variability is analyzed for vegetation and specific forest types. Temporal dynamics are examined from a multiresolution analysis based on the wavelet transform (MRA-WT). The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and the Theil–Sen slope are applied to quantify the magnitude and direction of trends (increasing or decreasing) within the time series. The use of MRA-WT to extract the annual component from daily series increased the number of statistically significant pixels. At pixel level, larger significant GPP and NPP negative changes (p-value < 0.1) are observed, especially in southeastern Spain, eastern Mediterranean coastland, and central Spain. At annual temporal scale, forests and irrigated crops are estimated to have twice the GPP of rainfed crops, shrublands, grasslands, and sparse vegetation. Within forest types, deciduous broadleaved trees exhibited the greatest annual NPP, followed by evergreen broadleaved and evergreen needle-leaved tree species. Carbon fluxes trends were correlated with precipitation. The temporal analysis based on daily TS demonstrated an increase of accuracy in the trend estimates since more significant pixels were obtained as compared to annual resolution studies (72% as to only 17%).

A bibliometric review of vegetation response to climate change

Global assessment of vegetation response to climate change (VRCC) studies was conducted to reveal the research evolution, current research hotspots and better understanding of dominant themes in VRCC areas of research from 1992 to 2019 through the use of bibliometrics. A total of 186 articles with the search term "Vegetation response to Climate change" were retrieved using the Web of Science (WOS) database. The annual growth rate of 10.3% connotes that research on VRCC has been increasing over time during the survey period. Average citations per article experienced many fluctuations over the years rather than maintaining the same growth rate, which connotes that this field of research reached was unstable in terms of average total citation per document. Results show that China ranked first followed by the USA and the UK, and this shows the dominance of these countries on VRCC studies over the years in review. Results from corresponding authors' nationalities show that multiple-country publications are relatively low compared to articles from single-country publications which showed a dominant trend. Hence, we can infer that most studies on VRCC were sustained by single-country publications. Results from this study revealed top-cited articles, the top global distribution of documents, academic collaboration, most relevant keywords and Word TreeMap of high-frequency keywords. The findings of this study show that "temperature" is in a central position in all keywords with the largest significant appearance in the field. In conclusion, the findings from this study may be applicable for planning and managing vegetation and forest ecosystem research and provide hints for future development.

Sensitivity of Green-Up Date to Meteorological Indicators in Hulun Buir Grasslands of China

Temperature and precipitation are considered to be the most important indicators affecting the green-up date. Sensitivity of the green-up date to temperature and precipitation is considered to be one of the key indicators to characterize the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. We selected the main grassland types for analysis, including temperate steppe, temperate meadow steppe, upland meadow, and lowland meadow. This study investigates the variation in key meteorological indicators (daily maximum temperature (Tmax), daily minimum temperature (Tmin), and precipitation) between 2001 and 2018. We then examined the partial correlation and sensitivity of green-up date (GUD) to Tmax, Tmin, and precipitation. Our analysis indicated that the average GUD across the whole area was DOY 113. The mean GUD trend was −3.1 days/decade and the 25% region advanced significantly. Tmax and Tmin mainly showed a decreasing trend in winter (p > 0.05). In spring, Tmax mainly showed an increasing trend (p > 0.05) and Tmin a decreasing trend (p > 0.05). Precipitation showed no significant (p > 0.05) change trend and the trend range was ±10 mm/decade. For temperate steppe, the increase in Tmin in March promotes green-up (27.3%, the proportion of significant pixels), with a sensitivity of −0.17 days/°C. In addition, precipitation in April also promotes green-up (21.7%), with a sensitivity of −0.32 days/mm. The GUDs of temperate meadow steppe (73.9%), lowland meadow (65.9%), and upland meadow (22.1%) were mainly affected by Tmin in March, with sensitivities of −0.15 days/°C, −0.13 days/°C, and −0.14 days/°C, respectively. The results of this study reveal the response of vegetation to climate warming and contribute to improving the prediction of ecological changes as temperatures increase in the future.

Grassland Phenology Response to Climate Conditions in Biobio, Chile from 2001 to 2020

Plant phenology is affected by climate conditions and therefore provides a sensitive indicator to changes in climate. Studying the evolution and change in plant phenology aids in a better understanding of and predicting changes in ecosystems. Vegetation Indices (VIs) have been recognized for their utility in indicating vegetation activity. Understanding climatic variables and their relationship to VI support the knowledge base of how ecosystems are changing under a new climatic scenario. This study evaluates grassland growth phenology in the Biobio, Chile, biweekly with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series. Four growth parameters for the six agro-climatic regions were analyzed from 2001 to 2020: start and end of the season, time and value of maximum NDVI. For this purpose, the NDVI time series were smoothed using Savitzky–Golay filtering. In addition, by using monthly gridded database climate data, we studied correlations between phenology markers and rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. The results show that both the start and end of the growing season did not significantly change; however, all agro-climatic regions grow faster and more vigorously. Thus, climatic conditions in Biobio have become more conducive to grassland growth over the 2001–2020 period.

Above-Ground Biomass Estimation in Oats Using UAV Remote Sensing and Machine Learning

Current strategies for phenotyping above-ground biomass in field breeding nurseries demand significant investment in both time and labor. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) can be used to derive vegetation indices (VIs) with high throughput and could provide an efficient way to predict forage yield with high accuracy. The main objective of the study is to investigate the potential of UAV-based multispectral data and machine learning approaches in the estimation of oat biomass. UAV equipped with a multispectral sensor was flown over three experimental oat fields in Volga, South Shore, and Beresford, South Dakota, USA, throughout the pre- and post-heading growth phases of oats in 2019. A variety of vegetation indices (VIs) derived from UAV-based multispectral imagery were employed to build oat biomass estimation models using four machine-learning algorithms: partial least squares (PLS), support vector machine (SVM), Artificial neural network (ANN), and random forest (RF). The results showed that several VIs derived from the UAV collected images were significantly positively correlated with dry biomass for Volga and Beresford (r = 0.2-0.65), however, in South Shore, VIs were either not significantly or weakly correlated with biomass. For Beresford, approximately 70% of the variance was explained by PLS, RF, and SVM validation models using data collected during the post-heading phase. Likewise for Volga, validation models had lower coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.20-0.25) and higher error (RMSE = 700-800 kg/ha) than training models (R2 = 0.50-0.60; RMSE = 500-690 kg/ha). In South Shore, validation models were only able to explain approx. 15-20% of the variation in biomass, which is possibly due to the insignificant correlation values between VIs and biomass. Overall, this study indicates that airborne remote sensing with machine learning has potential for above-ground biomass estimation in oat breeding nurseries. The main limitation was inconsistent accuracy in model prediction across locations. Multiple-year spectral data, along with the inclusion of textural features like crop surface model (CSM) derived height and volumetric indicators, should be considered in future studies while estimating biophysical parameters like biomass.

Life-history attributes of Arctic-breeding birds drive uneven responses to environmental variability across different phases of the reproductive cycle

Animals exhibit varied life-history traits that reflect adaptive responses to their environments. For Arctic-breeding birds, traits related to diet, egg nutrient allocation, clutch size, and chick growth are predicted to be under increasing selection pressure due to rapid climate change and increasing environmental variability across high-latitude regions. We compared four migratory birds (black brant [Branta bernicla nigricans], lesser snow geese [Chen caerulescens caerulescens], semipalmated sandpipers [Calidris pusilla], and Lapland longspurs [Calcarius lapponicus]) with varied life histories at an Arctic site in Alaska, USA, to understand how life-history traits help moderate environmental variability across different phases of the reproductive cycle. We monitored aspects of reproductive performance related to the timing of breeding, reproductive investment, and chick growth from 2011 to 2018. In response to early snowmelt and warm temperatures, semipalmated sandpipers advanced their site arrival and bred in higher numbers, while brant and snow geese increased clutch sizes; all four species advanced their nest initiation dates. During chick rearing, longspur nestlings were relatively resilient to environmental variation, whereas warmer temperatures increased the growth rates of sandpiper chicks but reduced growth rates of snow goose goslings. These responses generally aligned with traits along the capital-income spectrum of nutrient acquisition and altricial-precocial modes of chick growth. Under a warming climate, the ability to mobilize endogenous reserves likely provides geese with relative flexibility to adjust the timing of breeding and the size of clutches. Higher temperatures, however, may negatively affect the quality of herbaceous foods and slow gosling growth. Species may possess traits that are beneficial during one phase of the reproductive cycle and others that may be detrimental at another phase, uneven responses that may be amplified with future climate warming. These results underscore the need to consider multiple phases of the reproductive cycle when assessing the effects of environmental variability on Arctic-breeding birds.

Comprehensive Insights into Spatial-Temporal Evolution Patterns, Dominant Factors of NDVI from Pixel Scale, as a Case of Shaanxi Province, China

Based on long term NDVI (1982–2015), climate, topographic factors, and land use type data information in Shaanxi Province, multiple methods (linear regression, partial and multiple correlation analysis, redundancy analysis and boosted regression trees method) were conducted to evaluate the spatial-temporal change footprints and driving mechanisms in the pixel scale. The results demonstrated that (1) the overall annual average and seasonal NDVI in this region showed a fluctuating upward trend, especially in spring. The difference between the end of season (eos) and start of season (sos) gradually increased, indicating the occurrence of temporal “greening” across most Shaanxi Province. (2) The overall spatial distribution of annual mean NDVI in Shaanxi Province was prominent in the south and low in the north, and 98.83% of the areas had a stable and increasing trend. Pixel scale analysis reflected the spatial continuity and heterogeneity of NDVI evolution. (3) Trend and breakpoint evaluation results showed that evolutionary trends were not homogeneous. There were obvious breakpoints in the latitude direction of NDVI evolution in Shaanxi Province, especially between 32–33 °N and in the north of 37 °N. (4) Compared with precipitation, the annual average temperature was significantly correlated with the vegetation indices (annual NDVI, max NDVI, time integrated NDVI) and phenology metrics (sos, eos). (5) Considering the interaction between environmental variables, the NDVI evolution was dominated by the combined influence of climate and geographic location factors in most areas.

Predicting Soil Respiration from Plant Productivity (NDVI) in a Sub-Arctic Tundra Ecosystem

Soils represent the largest store of carbon in the biosphere with soils at high latitudes containing twice as much carbon (C) than the atmosphere. High latitude tundra vegetation communities show increases in the relative abundance and cover of deciduous shrubs which may influence net ecosystem exchange of CO2 from this C-rich ecosystem. Monitoring soil respiration (Rs) as a crucial component of the ecosystem carbon balance at regional scales is difficult given the remoteness of these ecosystems and the intensiveness of measurements that is required. Here we use direct measurements of Rs from contrasting tundra plant communities combined with direct measurements of aboveground plant productivity via Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to predict soil respiration across four key vegetation communities in a tundra ecosystem. Soil respiration exhibited a nonlinear relationship with NDVI (y = 0.202e3.508 x, p < 0.001). Our results further suggest that NDVI and soil temperature can help predict Rs if vegetation type is taken into consideration. We observed, however, that NDVI is not a relevant explanatory variable in the estimation of SOC in a single-study analysis.

Evaluating the NDVI–Rainfall Relationship in Bisha Watershed, Saudi Arabia Using Non-Stationary Modeling Technique

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and rainfall data were used to model the spatial relationship between vegetation and rainfall. Their correlation in previous studies was typically based on a global regression model, which assumed that the correlation was constant across space. The NDVI–rainfall association, on the other hand, is spatially non-stationary, non-linear, scale-dependent, and influenced by local factors (e.g., soil background). In this study, two statistical methods are used in the modeling, i.e., traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR), to evaluate the NDVI–rainfall relationship. The GWR was implemented annually in the growing seasons of 2000 and 2016, using climate data (Normalized Vegetation Difference Index and rainfall). The NDVI–rainfall relationship in the studied Bisha watershed (an eco-sensitive zone with a complex landscape) was found to have a stable operating scale of around 12 km. The findings support the hypothesis that the OLS model’s average impression could not accurately represent local conditions. By addressing spatial non-stationarity, the GWR approach greatly improves the model’s accuracy and predictive ability. In analyzing the relationship between NDVI patterns and rainfall, our research has shown that GWR outperforms a global OLS model. This superiority stems primarily from the consideration of the relationship’s spatial variance across the study area. Global regression techniques such as OLS can overlook local details, implying that a large portion of the variance in NDVI is unexplained. It appears that rainfall is the most significant factor in deciding the distribution of vegetation in these regions. Furthermore, rainfall had weak relationships with areas predominantly located around wetlands, suggesting the need for additional factors to describe NDVI variations. The GWR method performed better in terms of accuracy, predictive power, and reduced residual autocorrelation. Thus, GWR is recommended as an explanatory and exploratory technique when relations between variables are subject to spatial variability. Since the GWR is a local form of spatial analysis that aligned to local conditions, it has the potential for more accurate prediction; however, a larger amount of data is needed to allow a reliable local fitting.

Drivers of phenology shifts and their effect on productivity in northern grassland of China during 1984-2017-evidence from long-term observational data

Plant phenology under changing climate is a critical factor controlling terrestrial vegetation productivity. However, large uncertainties exist due to different data sources and phenological parameter extraction methods. In this study, we took advantage of a suite of long-term field observational data in northern grassland of China to investigate the drivers of phenological shifts and their effect on the maximum aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP_max) across four representative grassland types during 1984-2017. Results showed that drivers of phenological events (i.e., start (SOS), end (EOS), and length (GSL) of the growing season) with warming influence dramatically differed among grassland types, indicating that the synergistic effect of temperature and precipitation should be highlighted. For temperate desert steppe and alpine meadow, GSL of dominant species was both significantly lengthened with temperature rising with averaged 0.94 days year^-1 (P < 0.001) and 1.15 days year^-1 (P < 0.001), respectively, while for typical temperate grassland, GSL was considerably shortened by an average of 0.58 days year^-1 (P < 0.01) as a result of water deficit caused by sharp warming and precipitation decreasing in summer and autumn. For most grassland types in our study, both SOS and GSL were significantly correlated with ANPP_max under different precipitation gradients with SOS advanced and GSL extended leading to higher ANPP_max. Only the typical temperate grassland presents a relatively poor correlation between phenological events and productivity. Furthermore, compared with GSL, ANPP_max was more sensitive to the advancement of SOS for every 1-day phenological change. However, the effect of EOS on ANPP_max across the four grassland types was much weaker and unstable. There were spatial response differences between ANPP_max and phenological transition events, with the temperate meadow grassland tending to be more sensitive compared with three other grassland types.

Multi-Year NDVI Values as Indicator of the Relationship between Spatiotemporal Vegetation Dynamics and Environmental Factors in the Qaidam Basin, China

The Qaidam Basin is a unique and complex ecosystem, wherein elevation gradients lead to high spatial heterogeneity in vegetation dynamics and responses to environmental factors. Based on the remote sensing data of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation dynamics and responses to precipitation, accumulative temperature (AT) and soil moisture (SM) in the Qaidam Basin from 2001 to 2016. Moreover, the contribution of those factors to vegetation dynamics at different altitudes was analyzed via an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The results indicated that the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values in the growing season showed an overall upward trend, with an increased rate of 0.001/year. The values of NDVI in low-altitude areas were higher than that in high-altitude areas, and the peak values of NDVI appeared along the elevation gradient at 4400–4600 m. Thanks to the use of ANN, we were able to detect the relative contribution of various environmental factors; the relative contribution rate of AT to the NDVI dynamic was the most significant (35.17%) in the low-elevation region (<2900 m). In the mid-elevation area (2900–3900 m), precipitation contributed 44.76% of the NDVI dynamics. When the altitude was higher than 3900 m, the relative contribution rates of AT (39.50%) and SM (38.53%) had no significant difference but were significantly higher than that of precipitation (21.97%). The results highlight that the different environmental factors have various contributions to vegetation dynamics at different altitudes, which has important theoretical and practical significance for regulating ecological processes.

Runoff change controlled by combined effects of multiple environmental factors in a headwater catchment with cold and arid climate in northwest China

The limited runoff in cold and arid regions is sensitive to environmental changes, and it is thus urgent to explore the change and controlling factors of runoff under the background of global warming and intensified human activities. However, previous studies have rarely considered the combined effects of multiple controlling factors at varying scales over time. With the headwater region of the Manas River in northwest China as the study area, we investigated the change in runoff for the period of 1954-2016 and its relationship with regional environmental factors (e.g. precipitation PCP, temperature TMP, potential evapotranspiration ET₀, snow cover extent SCE, land use, and normalized difference vegetation index NDVI) and/or global atmospheric circulation (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation NAO, Arctic Oscillation AO, Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation PDO, and El Nino Southern Oscillation ENSO). In particular, the combined effects of multiple environmental factors were determined at different scales by the multiple wavelet coherence. The annual runoff significantly increased at a rate of 0.508 × 10⁸ m³/decade, and the climate tended to be warmer and wetter. Among the regional and global environmental factors, NDVI and ENSO were the single factor mostly correlated with runoff, while NDVI-TMP and ENSO-PDO were the combined factors with the stronger relations on runoff, respectively. The regional environmental factors had larger impacts on runoff than the global environmental factors, and the natural factors outperformed human activities in controlling runoff. The accelerated melting of snow/glacier induced by the increasing temperature dominated runoff change, and the increasing water inputs from wetter climate may play a second role in runoff. The runoff characteristics in cold and arid regions seem to be different from those regions with little snow/glacier, which should be paid more attention. The employed multiple wavelet coherence is helpful in determining the processes dominating runoff change.

Spatial and Temporal Differences in Alpine Meadow, Alpine Steppe and All Vegetation of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Their Responses to Climate Change

Alpine meadow and alpine steppe are the two most widely distributed nonzonal vegetation types in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In the context of global climate change, the differences in spatial-temporal variation trends and their responses to climate change are discussed. It is of great significance to reveal the response of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to global climate change and the construction of ecological security barriers. This study takes alpine meadow, alpine steppe and the overall vegetation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the research objects. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and meteorological data were used as the data sources between 2000 and 2018. By using the mean value method, threshold method, trend analysis method and correlation analysis method, the spatial and temporal variation trends in the alpine meadow, alpine steppe and the overall vegetation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were compared and analyzed, and their differences in the responses to climate change were discussed. The results showed the following: (1) The growing season length of alpine meadow was 145~289 d, while that of alpine steppe and the overall vegetation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was 161~273 d, and their growing season lengths were significantly shorter than that of alpine meadow. (2) The annual variation trends of the growing season NDVI for the alpine meadow, alpine steppe and the overall vegetation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau increased obviously, but their fluctuation range and change rate were significantly different. (3) The overall vegetation improvement in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was primarily dominated by alpine steppe and alpine meadow, while the degradation was primarily dominated by alpine meadow. (4) The responses between the growing season NDVI and climatic factors in the alpine meadow, alpine steppe and the overall vegetation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau had great spatial heterogeneity in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. These findings provide evidence towards understanding the characteristics of the different vegetation types in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and their spatial differences in response to climate change.

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Drought Events and Their Effects on Vegetation: A Case Study in Southern Tibet, China

Frequent droughts in a warming climate tend to induce the degeneration of vegetation. Quantifying the response of vegetation to variations in drought events is therefore crucial for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems. In this study, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated using the precipitation data sourced from the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD), and then the drought events in southern Tibet from 1982 to 2015 were identified based on the SPI index. The results showed that the frequency, severity, and intensity of drought events in southern Tibet decreased from 1982 to 2015, and the highest frequency of drought was found between 1993 and 2000. To evaluate the impact of drought events on vegetation, the vegetation characteristic indexes were developed based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the drought characteristics. The assessment of two drought events showed that the alpine grasslands and alpine meadows had high vegetation vulnerability (AI). The assessment of multiple drought events showed that responses of vegetation to drought were spatially heterogeneous, and the total explain rate of environmental factors to the variations in AI accounted for 40%. Among the many environmental factors investigated, the AI were higher at middle altitudes (2000–3000 m) than low altitudes (<2000 m) and high altitudes (3000–4500 m). Meanwhile, the silt soil fraction in the upper soil layer (0–30 cm) had the greatest positive correlation with AI, suggesting that areas with a high silt soil fraction were more sensitive to drought. The relative contribution rates of environmental factors were predicted by a multivariate linear regression (MLR) model. The silt soil fraction was found to make the greatest relative contribution (23.3%) to the changes in AI.

Co-variability of the summer NDVIs on the eastern Tibetan Plateau and in the Lake Baikal region: Associated climate factors and atmospheric circulation

The Tibetan Plateau and Siberia are both crucial regions in which the vegetation dynamics are sensitive to climate change. The variabilities in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) over the two regions have been explored previously, but there have been few studies on the relationship of the NDVI in the two regions. Using the GIMMS-NDVI, GHCN-CAMS and NCEP reanalysis datasets and statistical and physical diagnostic methods, we show that the summer (June, July and August) NDVI over the eastern Tibetan Plateau and Lake Baikal and its adjacent eastern region of Siberia have an in-phase co-variability, especially on an interannual timescale (with a correlation coefficient of 0.69 during the time period 1982-2014). Further analyses show that precipitation and the related cloud cover and solar radiation are responsible for the variability in the NDVI over the eastern Tibetan Plateau, whereas temperature has the more important role in modulating the variability in the NDVI over the Lake Baikal region. A dipole pattern prevails over the Tibetan Plateau-Lake Baikal region and reflects the anomalies in the intensity and location of the South Asian high and the northeast Asian blocking high. This dipole pattern simultaneously modulates precipitation over the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the temperature over the Lake Baikal region and leads to the co-variability of the NDVI between the two regions. A synergistic sea surface temperature index, which reflects sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the northwest Pacific Ocean, the northern Indian Ocean and the subtropical north Atlantic Ocean, appears to adjust this Tibetan Plateau-Lake Baikal dipole pattern and is therefore closely related to the co-variability of the NDVI between the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the Lake Baikal region. Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics may not be only a local phenomenon in some areas, but are also likely to remotely link with variations in vegetation over other regions.

Greening and Browning Trends of Vegetation in India and Their Responses to Climatic and Non-Climatic Drivers

It is imperative to know the spatial distribution of vegetation trends in India and its responses to both climatic and non-climatic drivers because many ecoregions are vulnerable to global climate change. Here we employed the NDVI3g satellite data over the span of 35 years (1981/82–2015) to estimate vegetation trends and corresponding climatic variables trends (i.e., precipitation, temperature, solar radiation and soil moisture) by using the Mann–Kendall test (τ) and the Theil–Sen median trend. Analysis was performed separately for the two focal periods—(i) the earlier period (1981/82–2000) and (ii) later period (2000–2015)—because many ecoregions experienced more warming after 2000 than the 1980s and 1990s. Our results revealed that a prominent large-scale greening trend (47% of area) of vegetation continued from the earlier period to the later period (80% of area) across the northwestern Plain and Central India. Despite climatologically drier regions, the stronger greening trend was also evident over croplands which was attributed to moisture-induced greening combined with cooling trends of temperature. However, greening trends of vegetation and croplands diminished (i.e., from 84% to 40% of area in kharif season), especially over the southern peninsula, including the west-central area. Such changes were mostly attributed to warming trends and declined soil moisture trends, a phenomenon known as temperature-induced moisture stress. This effect has an adverse impact on vegetation growth in the Himalayas, Northeast India, the Western Ghats and the southern peninsula, which was further exaggerated by human-induced land-use change. Therefore, it can be concluded that vegetation trend analysis from NDVI3g data provides vital information on two mechanisms (i.e., temperature-induced moisture stress and moisture-induced greening) operating in India. In particular, the temperature-induced moisture stress is alarming, and may be exacerbated in the future under accelerated warming as it may have potential implications on forest and agriculture ecosystems, including societal impacts (e.g., food security, employment, wealth). These findings are very valuable to policymakers and climate change awareness-raising campaigns at the national level.

Identification of the Roles of Climate Factors, Engineering Construction, and Agricultural Practices in Vegetation Dynamics in the Lhasa River Basin, Tibetan Plateau

Understanding vegetation dynamics is necessary to address potential ecological threats and develop sustainable ecosystem management at high altitudes. In this study, we revealed the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation growth in the Lhasa River Basin using net primary productivity (NPP) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during the period of 2000–2005. The roles of climatic factors and specific anthropogenic activities in vegetation dynamics were also identified, including positive or negative effects and the degree of impact. The results indicated that the interannual series of NPP and NDVI in the whole basin both had a continuous increasing trend from 102 to 128 gC m−2 yr−1 and from 0.417 to 0.489 (p < 0.05), respectively. The strongest advanced trends (>2 gC m−2 yr−1 or >0.005 yr−1) were detected in mainly the southeastern and northeastern regions. Vegetation dynamics were not detected in 10% of the basin. Only 20% of vegetation dynamics were driven by climatic conditions, and precipitation was the controlling climatic factor determining vegetation growth. Accordingly, anthropogenic activities made a great difference in vegetation coverage, accounting for about 70%. The construction of urbanization and reservoir led to vegetation degradation, but the farmland practices contributed the vegetation growth. Reservoir construction had an adverse impact on vegetation within 6 km of the river, and the direct damage to vegetation was within 1 km. The impacts of urbanization were more serious than that of reservoir construction. Urban sprawl had an adverse impact on vegetation within a 6 km distance from the surrounding river and resulted in the degradation of vegetation, especially within a 3 km range. Intensive fertilization and guaranteed irrigation improved the cropland ecosystem conditions, creating a favorable effect on the accumulation of crop organic matter in a range of 5 km, with an NPP trend value of 1.2 gC m−2 yr−1. The highly intensive grazing activity forced ecological environmental pressures such that the correlation between livestock numbers and vegetation growth trend was significantly linear negative.

Contrasting acclimation responses to elevated CO2 and warming between an evergreen and a deciduous boreal conifer

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) concentrations may warm northern latitudes up to 8°C by the end of the century. Boreal forests play a large role in the global carbon cycle, and the responses of northern trees to climate change will thus impact the trajectory of future CO₂ increases. We grew two North American boreal tree species at a range of future climate conditions to assess how growth and carbon fluxes were altered by high CO₂ and warming. Black spruce (Picea mariana, an evergreen conifer) and tamarack (Larix laricina, a deciduous conifer) were grown under ambient (407 ppm) or elevated CO₂ (750 ppm) and either ambient temperatures, a 4°C warming, or an 8°C warming. In both species, the thermal optimum of net photosynthesis (T_optA ) increased and maximum photosynthetic rates declined in warm-grown seedlings, but the strength of these changes varied between species. Photosynthetic capacity (maximum rates of Rubisco carboxylation, V_cmax , and of electron transport, J_max ) was reduced in warm-grown seedlings, correlating with reductions in leaf N and chlorophyll concentrations. Warming increased the activation energy for V_cmax and J_max (E_aV and E_aJ , respectively) and the thermal optimum for J_max . In both species, the T_optA was positively correlated with both E_aV and E_aJ , but negatively correlated with the ratio of J_max /V_cmax . Respiration acclimated to elevated temperatures, but there were no treatment effects on the Q₁₀ of respiration (the increase in respiration for a 10°C increase in leaf temperature). A warming of 4°C increased biomass in tamarack, while warming reduced biomass in spruce. We show that climate change is likely to negatively affect photosynthesis and growth in black spruce more than in tamarack, and that parameters used to model photosynthesis in dynamic global vegetation models (E_aV and E_aJ ) show no response to elevated CO₂ .

A comparative study of remote sensing classification methods for monitoring and assessing desert vegetation using a UAV-based multispectral sensor

Restoration programs require long-term monitoring and assessment of vegetation growth and productivity. Remote sensing technology is considered to be one of the most powerful technologies for assessing vegetation. However, several limitations have been observed with regard to the use of satellite imagery, especially in drylands, due to the special structure of desert plants. Therefore, this study was conducted in Kuwait's Al Abdali protected area, which is dominated by a Rhanterium epapposum community. This work aimed to determine whether Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) multispectral imagery could eliminate the challenges associated with satellite imagery by examining the vegetation indices and classification methods for very high multispectral resolution imagery using UAVs. The results showed that the transformed difference vegetation index (TDVI) performed better with arid shrubs and grasses than did the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). It was found that the NDVI underestimated the vegetation coverage, especially in locations with high vegetation coverage. It was also found that Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Maximum Likelihood (ML) classifiers demonstrated a higher accuracy, with a significant overall accuracy of 93% and a kappa coefficient of 0.89. Therefore, we concluded that SVM and ML are the best classifiers for assessing desert vegetation and the use of UAVs with multispectral sensors can eliminate some of the major limitations associated with satellite imagery, particularly when dealing with tiny plants such as native desert vegetation. We also believe that these methods are suitable for the purpose of assessing vegetation coverage to support revegetation and restoration programs.

Vegetation Change and Its Response to Climate Change between 2000 and 2016 in Marshes of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China

Songnen Plain is a representative semi-arid marshland in China. The Songnen Plain marshes have undergone obvious loss during the past decades. In order to protect and restore wetland vegetation, it is urgent to investigate the vegetation change and its response to climate change in the Songnen Plain marshes. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climate data, we investigated the spatiotemporal change of vegetation and its relationship with temperature and precipitation in the Songnen Plain marshes. During 2000–2016, the growing season mean NDVI of the Songnen Plain marshes significantly (p < 0.01) increased at a rate of 0.06/decade. For the climate change effects on vegetation, the growing season precipitation had a significant positive effect on the growing season NDVI of marshes. In addition, this study first found asymmetric effects of daytime maximum temperature (Tmax) and nighttime minimum temperature (Tmin) on NDVI of the Songnen Plain marshes: The growing season NDVI correlated negatively with Tmax but positively with Tmin. Considering the global asymmetric warming of Tmax and Tmin, more attention should be paid to these asymmetric effects of Tmax and Tmin on the vegetation of marshes.

Estimating Frost during Growing Season and Its Impact on the Velocity of Vegetation Greenup and Withering in Northeast China

Vegetation phenology and photosynthetic primary production have changed simultaneously over the past three decades, thus impacting the velocity of vegetation greenup (Vgreenup) and withering (Vwithering). Although climate warming reduces the frequency of frost events, vegetation is exposed more frequently to frost due to the extension of the growing season. Currently, little is known about the effect of frost during the growing season on Vgreenup and Vwithering. This study analyzed spatiotemporal variations in Vgreenup and Vwithering in Northeast China between 1982 to 2015 using Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GIMMS 3g NDVI) data. Frost days and frost intensity were selected as indicators to investigate the influence of frost during the growing season on Vgreenup and Vwithering, respectively. Increased frost days during the growing season slowed Vgreenup and Vwithering. The number of frost days had a greater impact on Vwithering compared to Vgreenup. In addition, Vgreenup and Vwithering of forests were more vulnerable to frost days, while frost days had a lesser effect on grasslands. In contrast to frost days, frost intensity, which generally decreased during the growing season, accelerated Vgreenup and Vwithering for all land cover types. Changes in frost intensity had less of an impact on forests, whereas the leaf structure of grasslands is relatively simple and thus more vulnerable to frost intensity. The effects of frost during the growing season on Vgreenup and Vwithering in Northeast China were highlighted in this study, and the results provide a useful reference for understanding local vegetation responses to global climate change.

How eddy covariance flux measurements have contributed to our understanding of Global Change Biology

A global network of long-term carbon and water flux measurements has existed since the late 1990s. With its representative sampling of the terrestrial biosphere's climate and ecological spaces, this network is providing background information and direct measurements on how ecosystem metabolism responds to environmental and biological forcings and how they may be changing in a warmer world with more carbon dioxide. In this review, I explore how carbon and water fluxes of the world's ecosystem are responding to a suite of covarying environmental factors, like sunlight, temperature, soil moisture, and carbon dioxide. I also report on how coupled carbon and water fluxes are modulated by biological and ecological factors such as phenology and a suite of structural and functional properties. And, I investigate whether long-term trends in carbon and water fluxes are emerging in various ecological and climate spaces and the degree to which they may be driven by physical and biological forcings. As a growing number of time series extend up to 20 years in duration, we are at the verge of capturing ecosystem scale trends in the breathing of a changing biosphere. Consequently, flux measurements need to continue to report on future conditions and responses and assess the efficacy of natural climate solutions.

Grassland Productivity Response to Climate Change in the Hulunbuir Steppes of China

As global climate change deeply affects terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle, it is necessary to understand how grasslands respond to climate change. In this study, we examined the role of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) from 1961 to 2010 in the Hulunbuir grasslands of China, using a calibrated process-based biogeochemistry model. The results indicated that: Temperature experienced a rise trend from 1961; summer and autumn precipitation showed a rise trend before the 1990s and decline trend after the 1990s. Winter and spring precipitation showed an ascending trend. Simulated NPP had a high inter-annual variability during the study period, ranging from 139 g Cm−2 to 348 g Cm−2. The annual mean NPP was significant and positive in correlation with the annual variation of precipitation, and the trend was first raised then fell with the turn point at the 1990s. Temperature had a 20–30 d lag in summer, but none in spring and autumn; precipitation had a 10–20 d lag in summer. The climate lag effect analysis confirmed that temperature had a positive effect on NPP in spring and a negative effect in summer.

Spatiotemporal variation of vegetation coverage and its associated influence factor analysis in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China

Vegetation is a natural tie that connects the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and pedosphere. Quantitatively evaluating the variability of vegetation coverage and exploring its associated influence factors are essential for ecological security and sustainable economic development. In this paper, the spatiotemporal variation of vegetation coverage and its response to climatic factors and land use change were investigated in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) from 2001 to 2015, based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, vegetation type data, climate data, and land use/cover change (LUCC) data. The results indicated that the annual mean vegetation coverage revealed a nonsignificant decreasing trend over the whole YRD. Areas characterized by significant decreasing (P < 0.05) trends were mainly concentrated on the central and northern part of the YRD, and significant increasing (P < 0.05) trends were mainly located in the southern part of the study area. Except for grassland and cultivated crops, vegetation coverage of the other types of vegetation was all exhibiting increasing trends. Temperature has a more pronounced impact on vegetation growth than precipitation at both the annual and monthly scales. Furthermore, vegetation growth exhibited a time lag effect for 1~2 months in response to precipitation, while there was no such phenomenon with temperature. Land use change caused by urbanization is an important driving factor for the decrease of vegetation coverage in the YRD, and the effect of land use change on the vegetation dynamic should not be overlook.

Climate Prediction of Satellite-Based Spring Eurasian Vegetation Index (NDVI) using Coupled Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) Patterns

Satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data are widely used for estimating vegetation greenness. Seasonal climate predictions of spring (April–May–June) NDVI over Eurasia are explored by applying the year-to-year increment approach. The prediction models were developed based on the coupled modes of singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses between Eurasian NDVI and climate factors. One synchronous predictor, the spring surface air temperature from the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System (SAT-CFS), and three previous-season predictors (winter (December–January–February) sea-ice cover over the Barents Sea (SICBS), winter sea surface temperature over the equatorial Pacific (SSTP), and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were chosen to develop four single-predictor schemes: the SAT-CFS scheme, SICBS scheme, SSTP scheme, and NAO scheme. Meanwhile, a statistical scheme that involves the three previous-season predictors (i.e., SICBS, SSTP, and NAO) and a hybrid scheme that includes all four predictors are also proposed. To evaluate the prediction skills of the schemes, one-year-out cross-validation and independent hindcast results are analyzed, revealing the hybrid scheme as having the best prediction skill. The results indicate that the temporal correlation coefficients at 92% of grid points over Eurasia are significant at the 5% significance level in the hybrid scheme, which is the best among all the schemes. Furthermore, spatial correlation coefficients (SCCs) of the six schemes are significant at the 1% significance level in most years during 1983–2015, with the averaged SCC of the hybrid scheme being the highest (0.60). The grid-averaged root-mean-square-error of the hybrid scheme is 0.04. By comparing the satellite-based NDVI value with the independent hindcast results during 2010–2015, it can be concluded that the hybrid scheme shows high prediction skill in terms of both the spatial pattern and the temporal variability of spring Eurasian NDVI.

Discrepancies in vegetation phenology trends and shift patterns in different climatic zones in middle and eastern Eurasia between 1982 and 2015

Changes in vegetation phenology directly reflect the response of vegetation growth to climate change. In this study, using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index dataset from 1982 to 2015, we extracted start date of vegetation growing season (SOS), end date of vegetation growing season (EOS), and length of vegetation growing season (LOS) in the middle and eastern Eurasia region and evaluated linear trends in SOS, EOS, and LOS for the entire study area, as well as for four climatic zones. The results show that the LOS has significantly increased by 0.27 days/year, mostly due to a significantly advanced SOS (-0.20 days/year) and a slightly delayed EOS (0.07 days/year) over the entire study area from 1982 to 2015. The vegetation phenology trends in the four climatic zones are not continuous throughout the 34-year period. Furthermore, discrepancies in the shifting patterns of vegetation phenology trend existed among different climatic zones. Turning points (TP) of SOS trends in the Cold zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone occurred in the mid- or late 1990s. The advanced trends of SOS in the Cold zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone exhibited accelerated, stalled, and reversed patterns after the corresponding TP, respectively. The TP did not occurred in Cold-Temperate zone, where the SOS showed a consistent and continuous advance. TPs of EOS trends in the Cold zone, Cold-Temperate zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone occurred in the late 1980s or mid-1990s. The EOS in the Cold zone, Cold-Temperate zone, Temperate zone, and Tibetan Plateau zone showed weak advanced or delayed trends after the corresponding TP, which were comparable with the delayed trends before the corresponding TP. The shift patterns of LOS trends were primarily influenced by the shift patterns of SOS trends and were also heterogeneous within climatic zones.

Asymmetric Effects of Daytime and Nighttime Warming on Boreal Forest Spring Phenology

Vegetation phenology is the most intuitive and sensitive biological indicator of environmental conditions, and the start of the season (SOS) can reflect the rapid response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. At present, the model based on mean temperature neglects the role of the daytime maximum temperature (TMAX) and the nighttime minimum temperature (TMIN) in providing temperature accumulation and cold conditions at leaf onset. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of spring phenology for the boreal forest from 2001 to 2017 based on the moderate-resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data (MOD13A2) and investigated the asymmetric effects of daytime and nighttime warming on the boreal forest spring phenology during TMAX and TMIN preseason by partial correlation analysis. The results showed that the spring phenology was delayed with increasing latitude of the boreal forest. Approximately 91.37% of the region showed an advancing trend during the study period, with an average advancement rate of 3.38 ± 0.08 days/decade, and the change rates of different land cover types differed, especially in open shrubland. The length of the TMIN preseason was longer than that of the TMAX preseason and diurnal temperatures showed an asymmetrical increase during different preseasons. The daytime and nighttime warming effects on the boreal forest are asymmetrical. The TMAX has a greater impact on the vegetation spring phenology than TMIN as a whole and the effect also has seasonal differences; the TMAX mainly affects the SOS in spring, while TMIN has a greater impact in winter. The asymmetric effects of daytime and nighttime warming on the SOS in the boreal forest were highlighted in this study, and the results suggest that diurnal temperatures should be added to the forest terrestrial ecosystem model.

Interannual and Seasonal Vegetation Changes and Influencing Factors in the Extra-High Mountainous Areas of Southern Tibet

The ecosystem of extra-high mountain areas is very fragile. Understanding local vegetation changes is crucial for projecting ecosystem dynamics. In this paper, we make a case for Himalayan mountain areas to explore vegetation dynamics and their influencing factors. Firstly, the interannual trends of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were extracted by the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) algorithm and linear regression method. Moreover, the influence of environmental factors on interannual NDVI trends was assessed using the Random Forests algorithm and partial dependence plots. Subsequently, the time-lag effects of seasonal NDVI on different climatic factors were discussed and the effects of these factors on seasonal NDVI changes were determined by partial correlation analysis. The results show that (1) an overall weak upward trend was observed in NDVI variations from 1982 to 2015, and 1989 is considered to be the breakpoint of the NDVI time series; (2) interannual temperature trends and the shortest distance to large lakes were the most important factors in explaining interannual NDVI trends. Temperature trends were positively correlated with NDVI trends. The relationship between the shortest distance to large lakes and the NDVI trend is an inverted U-shaped; (3) the time-lags of NDVI responses to four climatic factors were shorter in Autumn than that in Summer. The NDVI responds quickly to precipitation and downward long-wave radiation; (4) downward long-wave radiation was the main climate factor that influenced NDVI changes in Autumn and the growing season because of the warming effect at night. This study is important to improve the understanding of vegetation changes in mountainous regions.

Transition Characteristics of the Dry-Wet Regime and Vegetation Dynamic Responses over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, Southeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The dry-wet transition is of great importance for vegetation dynamics, however the response mechanism of vegetation variations is still unclear due to the complicated effects of climate change. As a critical ecologically fragile area located in the southeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Yarlung Zangbo River (YZR) basin, which was selected as the typical area in this study, is significantly sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) based on the GLDAS-NOAH products and the GIMMS-NDVI remote sensing data from 1982 to 2015 were employed to investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of the dry-wet regime and the vegetation dynamic responses. The results showed that: (1) The spatio-temporal patterns of the precipitation and temperature simulated by the GLDAS-NOAH fitted well with those of the in-situ data. (2) During the period of 1982–2015, the whole YZR basin exhibited an overall wetting tendency. However, the spatio-temporal characteristics of the dry-wet regime exhibited a reversal phenomenon before and after 2000, which was jointly identified by the SPEI and runoff. That is, the YZR basin showed a wetting trend before 2000 and a drying trend after 2000; the arid areas in the basin showed a tendency of wetting whereas the humid areas exhibited a trend of drying. (3) The region where NDVI was positively correlated with SPEI accounted for approximately 70% of the basin area, demonstrating a similar spatio-temporal reversal phenomenon of the vegetation around 2000, indicating that the dry-wet condition is of great importance for the evolution of vegetation. (4) The SPEI showed a much more significant positive correlation with the soil water content which accounted for more than 95% of the basin area, implying that the soil water content was an important indicator to identify the dry-wet transition in the YZR basin.

Is moving to a greener or less green area followed by changes in physical activity?

Green areas might provide an inviting setting and thereby promote physical activity. The objective of this study was to determine whether moving to different green area surroundings was followed by changes of physical activity. Data from a large population-based cohort of adults in Stockholm County responding to surveys in 2010 and 2014 were analysed (n = 42611). Information about walking/cycling and exercise were self-reported and living area greenness data were satellite-derived (NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed separately for changes in levels of walking/cycling and exercise (decrease, stable, increase). Greenness was defined as a change in NDVI quartile to less green, same, or greener. Odds ratio's (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were presented adjusted for gender, age, education and area-based income. Contrary to what we hypothesized, those moving to a greener area were more likely to decrease their levels of walking/cycling (OR = 1.42, CI = 1.28-1.58), whereas those moving to a less green area were more likely to increase their walking/cycling (OR = 1.26, CI = 1.13-1.41). Exercise behaviour showed another pattern, with people being more likely to decrease exercise both when moving to a greener (OR = 1.25, CI = 1.22-1.38) and to a less green area (OR = 1.22, CI = 1.09-1.36). Studying subpopulations based on sociodemographic characteristics did not aid to clarify our results. This cohort study with repeated measurements did not support the currently available cross-sectional studies showing a strong positive relation between greenness and physical activity. Nevertheless, our findings have shown spatial patterns related to green areas and physical activity which imply a need for place-specific health policies.

Predicting the patterns of change in spring onset and false springs in China during the twenty-first century

Spring onset has generally shifted earlier in China over the past several decades in response to the warming climate. However, future changes in spring onset and false springs, which will have profound effects on ecosystems, are still not well understood. Here, we used the extended form of the Spring Indices model (SI-x) to project changes in the first leaf and first bloom dates, and predicted false springs for the historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods based on the downscaled daily maximum/minimum temperatures under two emission scenarios from 21 General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On average, first leaf and first bloom in China were projected to occur 21 and 23 days earlier, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Areas with greater earlier shifts in spring onset were in the warm temperate zone, as well as the north and middle subtropical zones of China. Early false spring risk increased rapidly in the warm temperate and north subtropical zones, while that declined in the cold temperate zone. Relative to early false spring risk, late false spring risk showed a common increase with smaller magnitude in the RCP 8.5 scenario but might cause greater damage to ecosystems because plants tend to become more vulnerable to the later occurrence of a freeze event. We conclude that future climate warming will continue to cause earlier occurrence of spring onset in general, but might counterintuitively increase plant damage risk in natural and agricultural systems of the warm temperate and subtropical China.

Prairie plant phenology driven more by temperature than moisture in climate manipulations across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Plant phenology will likely shift with climate change, but how temperature and/or moisture regimes will control phenological responses is not well understood. This is particularly true in Mediterranean climate ecosystems where the warmest temperatures and greatest moisture availability are seasonally asynchronous. We examined plant phenological responses at both the population and community levels to four climate treatments (control, warming, drought, and warming plus additional precipitation) embedded within three prairies across a 520 km latitudinal Mediterranean climate gradient within the Pacific Northwest, USA. At the population level, we monitored flowering and abundances in spring 2017 of eight range-restricted focal species planted both within and north of their current ranges. At the community level, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) measured from fall 2016 to summer 2018 to estimate peak live biomass, senescence, seasonal patterns, and growing season length. We found that warming exerted a stronger control than our moisture manipulations on phenology at both the population and community levels. Warming advanced flowering regardless of whether a species was within or beyond its current range. Importantly, many of our focal species had low abundances, particularly in the south, suggesting that establishment, in addition to phenological shifts, may be a strong constraint on their future viability. At the community level, warming advanced the date of peak biomass regardless of site or year. The date of senescence advanced regardless of year for the southern and central sites but only in 2018 for the northern site. Growing season length contracted due to warming at the southern and central sites (~3 weeks) but was unaffected at the northern site. Our results emphasize that future temperature changes may exert strong influence on the timing of a variety of plant phenological events, especially those events that occur when temperature is most limiting, even in seasonally water-limited Mediterranean ecosystems.