Local adaptations and climate change: converging sensitivity of bud break in black spruce provenances

Bud structure, time of budbreak and crown architecture in woody species from Cerrado and seasonal forests of Brazil

Different light intensities in cerrado stricto sensu (CSS) and semideciduous seasonal forests (SSF) can result in distinct morphological responses among woody species. This research evaluated the size and bud composition, budbreak time, and crown architecture of woody species in response to precipitation and varying light intensities in these two environments. The study was conducted in CSS (19°57'29″ S and 44°25'29″ W) and an SSF fragment (19°53'84″ S and 44°25'56″ W) in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The research focused on four species: Miconia albicans and Xylopia aromatica, which occur in both environments, as well as Bauhinia cfr. ungulata (CSS) and B. cfr. rufa (SSF). Shoots from the main axis were manually dissected, and budbreak times were recorded. Crown architecture was evaluated based on diagrams of the vegetative above-ground structure, excluding leaves. Light intensities was measured with a luxmeter at the crown's apex, interior, and base. Shoots were larger and had more preformed organs in CSS than in SSF trees. Trichomes were observed on shoots of all CSS and SSF trees. The number of cataphylls varied: B. cfr. ungulata had one, B. cfr. rufa had 1-3, while compound buds of X. aromatica averaged 5.4 in CSS and 3.7 in SSF. Simple buds of X. aromatica and all M. albicans buds lacked cataphylls. Budbreak occurred in September for M. albicans (CSS and SSF), October for B. cfr. ungulata, Juy-October for X. aromatica and August-October for B. cfr. rufa. A positive correlation between budbreak and rainfall was recorded only for B. cfr. ungulata. Despite differences in bud size and composition between environment, these didn't result in distinct crown architectures. The findings highlight that tropical woody species with cataphyll-protected buds are as common as in temperate regions. Further research is needed to explore phylogenetic traits and the ecological role of cataphylls in tropical species.

Weak evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology across Europe and North America

Forecasting the biological impacts of climate change requires understanding how species respond to warmer temperatures through interannual flexible variation vs through adaptation to local conditions. Yet, we often lack this information entirely or find conflicting evidence across studies, which is the case for spring phenology. We synthesized common garden studies across Europe and North America that reported spring event dates for a mix of angiosperm and gymnosperm tree species in the northern hemisphere, capturing data from 384 North American and 101 European provenances (i.e. populations) with observations from 1962 to 2019, alongside autumn event data when provided. Across continents, we found no evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology, but strong clines with latitude and mean annual temperature in autumn. These effects, however, appeared to diverge by continent and species type (gymnosperm vs angiosperm), with particularly pronounced clines in North America in autumn events. Our results suggest flexible, likely plastic responses, in spring phenology with warming, and potential limits - at least in the short term - due to provenance effects for autumn phenology. They also highlight that, after over 250 yr of common garden studies on tree phenology, we still lack a holistic predictive model of clines across species and phenological events.

A critical thermal transition driving spring phenology of Northern Hemisphere conifers

Despite growing interest in predicting plant phenological shifts, advanced spring phenology by global climate change remains debated. Evidence documenting either small or large advancement of spring phenology to rising temperature over the spatio-temporal scales implies a potential existence of a thermal threshold in the responses of forests to global warming. We collected a unique data set of xylem cell-wall-thickening onset dates in 20 coniferous species covering a broad mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (-3.05 to 22.9°C) across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23°-66° N). Along the MAT gradient, we identified a threshold temperature (using segmented regression) of 4.9 ± 1.1°C, above which the response of xylem phenology to rising temperatures significantly decline. This threshold separates the Northern Hemisphere conifers into cold and warm thermal niches, with MAT and spring forcing being the primary drivers for the onset dates (estimated by linear and Bayesian mixed-effect models), respectively. The identified thermal threshold should be integrated into the Earth-System-Models for a better understanding of spring phenology in response to global warming and an improved prediction of global climate-carbon feedbacks.

From common gardens to candidate genes: exploring local adaptation to climate in red spruce

Local adaptation to climate is common in plant species and has been studied in a range of contexts, from improving crop yields to predicting population maladaptation to future conditions. The genomic era has brought new tools to study this process, which was historically explored through common garden experiments. In this study, we combine genomic methods and common gardens to investigate local adaptation in red spruce and identify environmental gradients and loci involved in climate adaptation. We first use climate transfer functions to estimate the impact of climate change on seedling performance in three common gardens. We then explore the use of multivariate gene-environment association methods to identify genes underlying climate adaptation, with particular attention to the implications of conducting genome scans with and without correction for neutral population structure. This integrative approach uncovered phenotypic evidence of local adaptation to climate and identified a set of putatively adaptive genes, some of which are involved in three main adaptive pathways found in other temperate and boreal coniferous species: drought tolerance, cold hardiness, and phenology. These putatively adaptive genes segregated into two 'modules' associated with different environmental gradients. This study nicely exemplifies the multivariate dimension of adaptation to climate in trees.

The early bud gets the cold: Diverging spring phenology drives exposure to late frost in a Picea mariana [(Mill.) BSP] common garden

Under climate change, the increasing occurrence of late frost combined with advancing spring phenology can increase the risk of frost damage in trees. In this study, we tested the link between intra-specific variability in bud phenology and frost exposure and damages. We analysed the effects of the 2021 late frost event in a black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) common garden in Québec, Canada. We hypothesised that the timing of budbreak drives the exposure of vulnerable tissues and explains differences in frost damage. Budbreak was monitored from 2015 to 2021 in 371 trees from five provenances originating between 48° and 53° N and planted in a common garden at 48° N. Frost damages were assessed on the same trees through the proportion of damaged buds per tree and related to the phenological phases by ordinal regressions. After an unusually warm spring, minimum temperatures fell to -1.9°C on May 28 and 29, 2021. At this moment, trees from the northern provenances were more advanced in their phenology and showed more frost damage. Provenances with earlier budbreak had a higher probability of damage occurrence according to ordinal regression. Our study highlights the importance of intra-specific variability of phenological traits on the risk of frost exposure. We provide evidence that the timings of bud phenology affect sensitivity to frost, leading to damages at temperatures of -1.9°C. Under the same conditions, the earlier growth reactivation observed in the northern provenances increases the risks of late frost damage on the developing buds.

Tree Maladaptation Under Mid-Latitude Early Spring Warming and Late Cold Spell: Implications for Assisted Migration

Global warming is predicted to extend the growing season of trees and plants, and advance spring phenology. However, intensification of extreme climate events in mid-latitude forests, from weakening of the jet stream and atmospheric blockings, may expose trees to increased risk associated with more frequent late-spring frosts. Still, little is known regarding the intraspecific variation in frost tolerance and how it may be shaped by local adaptation to the climate of seed origin. As part of an assisted migration trial located in different bioclimatic zones in the province of Quebec, Canada, and following an extensive late-spring frost that occurred at the end of May 2021, we evaluated the frost damages on various white spruce (Picea glauca) seed sources tested on three sites (south, central, and north). The severity of frost damages was assessed on 5,376 trees after the cold spell and an early spring warming which advanced bud flush by approximately 10 days on average. The frost damage rate was similar among sites and seed sources and averaged 99.8%. Frost damage severity was unrelated to the latitude of seed origin but was variable among sites. The proportion of severely damaged trees was higher in the northern site, followed by central and southern sites. The proportion of severely damaged trees was linearly and inversely related to tree height before the frost event. Apical growth cancelation was not significantly different among seed sources including local ones, and averaged 74, 46, and 22%, respectively, in central, northern, and southern plantation sites. This study provides recommendations to limit the loss of plantation productivity associated with such a succession of spring climate anomalies. Implications for seed transfer models in the context of climate change and productivity of spruce plantations are discussed in the light of lack of local adaptation to such pronounced climate instability and ensuing large-scale maladaptation.

Environmental and developmental factors driving xylem anatomy and micro-density in black spruce

Wood density is the product of carbon allocation for structural growth and reflects the trade-off between mechanical support and water conductivity. We tested a conceptual framework based on the assumption that micro-density depends on direct and indirect relationships with endogenous and exogenous factors. The dynamics of wood formation, including timings and rates of cell division, cell enlargement, and secondary wall deposition, were assessed from microcores collected weekly between 2002 and 2016 from five black spruce stands located along a latitudinal gradient in Quebec, Canada. Cell anatomy and micro-density were recorded by anatomical analyses and X-ray measurements. Our structural equation model explained 80% of micro-density variation within the tree-ring with direct effects of wall thickness (σ = 0.61), cell diameter (σ = -0.51), and photoperiod (σ = -0.26). Wood formation dynamics had an indirect effect on micro-density. Micro-density increased under longer periods of cell-wall deposition and shorter durations of enlargement. Our results fill a critical gap in understanding the relationships underlying micro-density variation in conifers. We demonstrated that short-term responses to environmental variations could be overridden by plastic responses that modulate cell differentiation. Our results point to wood formation dynamics as a reliable predictor of carbon allocation in trees.

Minimum spring temperatures at the provenance origin drive leaf phenology in sugar maple populations

Late frost can cause damage to trees, especially to the developing bud of broadleaf species in spring. Through long-term adaptation, plants adjust leaf phenology to achieve an optimal trade-off between growing season length and frost avoidance. In this study, we aim to assess ecotypic differentiation in leaf development of sugar maple populations planted in a common garden. A total of 272 sugar maple seedlings from 29 Canadian provenances were planted at the northern boundary of the natural range, and the phenological phases of bud and leaf development were monitored during spring 2019. The wide geographical area under evaluation showed a complex seasonal pattern of temperature, with spring warming occurring later in the north and close to the sea. Overall, leaf development lasted between 20 and 36 days, from the end of May to end of June. We observed different timings and rates of leaf development among provenances, demonstrating the occurrence of ecotypes in this species. Minimum April temperatures of the original sites were able to explain such differences, while maximum April temperatures were not significant. Seedlings from sites with colder minimum April temperatures completed leaf development earlier and faster. On average, leaf development diverged by up to 6 days among provenances, with minimum April temperatures ranging from -3 to 3 °C. Our results demonstrated that the avoidance of late spring frost is a driving force of leaf development in sugar maple populations. In the colder sites, the growing season is a limiting factor for tree growth. Thus, when thermal conditions become favorable in spring, an earlier growth reactivation and high metabolic activity ensure a fast leaf emission, which maximizes the period available for photosynthesis and growth. These patterns demonstrate the long-term phenological adaptation of sugar maple populations to local climatic conditions and suggest the importance of frost events for leaf development.

Phenological Differentiation in Sugar Maple Populations and Responses of Bud Break to an Experimental Warming

Species with wide geographical ranges exhibit specific adaptations to local climates, which may result in diverging responses among populations to changing conditions. Climate change has advanced spring phenology worldwide, but questions of whether and how the phenological responses to warming differ among individuals across the natural range of a species remain. We conducted two experiments in January and April 2019, and performed daily observations of the timings of bud break in 1-year-old seedlings of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marshall) from 25 Canadian provenances at two thermal conditions (14/10 and 18/14 °C day/night temperature) in a controlled environment. Overall, bud break started 6 days from the beginning of the experiments and finished after 125 days. The earlier events were observed in seedlings originating from the colder sites. Bud break was delayed by 4.8 days per additional degree Celsius in the mean annual temperature at the origin site. Warming advanced the timing of bud break by 17–27 days in January and by 3–8 days in April. Similar advancements in bud break were observed among provenances under warming conditions, which rejected our hypothesis that sugar maple populations have different phenological responses to warming. Our findings confirm the differentiation in ecotypes for the process of bud break in sugar maple. In cases of homogenous spring warming across the native range of sugar maple, similar advancements in bud phenology can be expected in different populations.

Probability of Spring Frosts, Not Growing Degree-Days, Drives Onset of Spruce Bud Burst in Plantations at the Boreal-Temperate Forest Ecotone

Climate warming-driven early leaf-out is expected to increase forest productivity but concurrently increases leaf exposure to spring frosts, which could reduce forests' net productivity. We hypothesized that due to their damaging effect on buds, spring frosts exert a stronger control on bud phenology than do growing degree-days. We monitored bud flush phenology of three white spruce seed sources (one local seed source from the boreal mixedwood forest and two seed sources from the temperate forest), one black spruce seed source originating from the boreal mixedwood forest and four nonlocal Norway spruce seed sources in 2016 and 2017 in two plantations located on both sides of the temperate-boreal mixedwood forest ecotone in eastern Canada (Quebec). We aimed to determine inter- and intraspecies variations in bud break timing and sensitivity to air temperature and photoperiod. We expected that bud break timing for boreal species and seed sources would be better synchronized with the decrease in frost probability than for nonlocal species and seed sources. We used mixed binomial regressions and AICc model selection to determine the best environmental variables predicting each transition from one stage of bud phenology to the next. At both plantation sites, white spruce bud flush began and ended earlier compared to black and Norway spruce. Buds of all spruce species were sensitive to frost probability for early phenological stages, whereas growing degree-days controlled the remaining stages. Photoperiod sensitivity was higher for white spruce compared to black and Norway spruce and reached its maximum in the temperate forest. At intraspecies level, the two southern white spruce seed sources opened their buds earlier than the local source and were more sensitive to photoperiod, which increased their exposure to spring frosts. Onset of spruce bud flush is driven by spring frosts and photoperiod, but once started, bud phenology responds to temperature. The high photoperiod sensitivity in white spruces could counterbalance climate warming and limit future premature leaf-out, whereas the low photoperiod sensitivity in black spruce should not restrain leaf-out advancement with climate warming. Our results call for adapting the temperature-driven hypotheses of ecophysiological models predicting leaf-out to include spring frost probability.

Adaptation of Forest Trees to Rapidly Changing Climate

Climate change leads to global drought-induced stress and increased plant mortality. Tree species living in rapidly changing climate conditions are exposed to danger and must adapt to new climate conditions to survive. Trees respond to changes in the environment in numerous ways. Physiological modulation at the seed stage, germination strategy and further development are influenced by many different factors. We review forest abiotic threats (such as drought and heat), including biochemical responses of plants to stress, and biotic threats (pathogens and insects) related to global warming. We then discus the varied adaptations of tree species to changing climate conditions such as seed resistance to environmental stress, improved by an increase in temperature, affinity to specific fungal symbionts, a wide range of tolerance to abiotic environmental conditions in the offspring of populations occurring in continental climate, and germination strategies closely linked to the ecological niche of the species. The existing studies do not clearly indicate whether tree adaptations are shaped by epigenetics or phenology and do not define the role of phenotypic plasticity in tree development. We have created a juxtaposition of literature that is useful in identifying the factors that play key roles in these processes. We compare scientific evidence that species distribution and survival are possible due to phenotypic plasticity and thermal memory with studies that testify that trees’ phenology depends on phylogenesis, but this issue is still open. It is possible that studies in the near future will bring us closer to understanding the mechanisms through which trees adapt to stressful conditions, especially in the context of epigenetic memory in long-lived organisms, and allow us to minimize the harmful effects of climatic events by predicting tree species’ responses or by developing solutions such as assisted migration to mitigate the consequences of these phenomena.

Comparing the Cell Dynamics of Tree-Ring Formation Observed in Microcores and as Predicted by the Vaganov-Shashkin Model

New insights into the intra-annual dynamics of tree-ring formation can improve our understanding of tree-growth response to environmental conditions at high-resolution time scales. Obtaining this information requires, however, a weekly monitoring of wood formation, sampling that is extremely time-intensive and scarcely feasible over vast areas. Estimating the timing of cambial and xylem differentiation by modeling thus represents an interesting alternative for obtaining this important information by other means. Temporal dynamics of cambial divisions can be extracted from the daily tree-ring growth rate computed by the Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) simulation model, assuming that cell production is tightly linked to tree-ring growth. Nonetheless, these predictions have yet to be compared with direct observations of wood development, i.e., via microcoring, over a long time span. We tested the performance of the VS model by comparing the observed and predicted timing of wood formation in black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.)]. We obtained microcores over 15 years at 5 sites along a latitudinal gradient in Quebec (Canada). The measured variables included cell size and the timing of cell production and differentiation. We calibrated the VS model using daily temperature and precipitation recorded by weather stations located on each site. The predicted and observed timing of cambial and enlarging cells were highly correlated (R ² = 0.8); nonetheless, we detected a systematic overestimation in the predicted timing of cambial cells, with predictions delayed by 1-20 days compared with observations. The growth rate of cell diameter was correlated with the predicted growth rate assigned to each cambial cell, confirming that cell diameter developmental dynamics have the potential to be inferred by the tree-ring growth curve of the VS model. Model performances decrease substantially in estimating the end of wood formation. The systematic errors suggest that the actual relationships implemented in the model are unable to explain the phenological events in autumn. The mismatch between the observed and predicted timing of wood formation in black spruce within our study area can be reduced by better adapting the VS model to wet sites, a context for which this model has been rarely used.

Responses of bud-break phenology to daily-asymmetric warming: daytime warming intensifies the advancement of bud break

There is evidence that the ongoing climate change is happening through nighttime rather than daytime warming. How such a daily-asymmetric warming modifies plant phenology is still unclear. We investigated the effects of asymmetric warming on bud break by daily monitoring seedlings belonging to 26 black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP.] and 15 balsam fir [Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.] provenances from the native range in Canada. Seedlings were subjected to either daytime or nighttime warming in three growth chambers at temperatures ranging between 10 and 24 °C. On average, a warming of 4 °C advanced the timings of bud break in both species by 2.4 days, with the later phases being more sensitive to the treatment. Bud break of both species responded more strongly to daytime warming, with the bud break occurred 1.2 and 3.2 days earlier under daytime than nighttime warming in black spruce and balsam fir, respectively. A marked ecotypic differentiation was only observed in black spruce that originated from provenances distributed broadly across Canada, with seedlings from the warmest provenance completing bud break 8.3 days later than those from the coldest one. However, no significant effect of provenance was observed for balsam fir, the narrowly distributed species. Overall, the above results suggest that a higher temporal resolution such as temperatures during daytime and nighttime, and higher spatial resolution should be taken into account to improve the accuracy of phenological model predictions under global change scenarios. Phenological models based on daily average temperature should take into account the diverging impacts of asymmetric warming on plant phenology. Our findings may indicate that the influence of warming on plant phenology may be less dramatic than expected.

Phenological shifts in conifer species stressed by spruce budworm defoliation

Synchrony between host budburst and insect emergence greatly influences the time window for insect development and survival. A few alterations of bud phenology have been reported under defoliation without clear consensus regarding the direction of effects, i.e., advance or delay. Here, we compared budburst phenology between conifers in defoliation and control treatments, and measured carbon allocation as a potential mechanistic explanation of changes in phenology. In a 2-year greenhouse experiment, saplings of balsam fir, black spruce and white spruce of two different provenances (north and south) were subjected to either control (no larvae) or natural defoliation treatment (larvae added) by spruce budworm. Bud and instar phenology, primary and secondary growth, defoliation and non-structural carbohydrates were studied during the growing season. No differences were observed in bud phenology during the first year of defoliation. After 1 year of defoliation, bud phenology advanced by 6-7 days in black spruce and balsam fir and by 3.5 days in white spruce compared with the control. Because of this earlier bud break, apical and shoot growth exceeded 50% of its final length before mature instar defoliation occurred, which decreased the overall level of damage. A sugar-mediated response, via earlier starch breakdown, and higher sugar availability to buds explains the advanced budburst in defoliated saplings. The advanced phenological response to defoliation was consistent across the conifer species and provenances except for one species × provenance combination. Allocation of carbon to buds and shoots growth at the expense of wood growth in the stem and reserve accumulation represents a shift in the physiological resources priorities to ensure tree survival. This advancement in bud phenology could be considered as a physiological response to defoliation based on carbohydrate needs for primary growth, rather than a resistance trait to spruce budworm.

Phenological synchrony between eastern spruce budworm and its host trees increases with warmer temperatures in the boreal forest

Climate change is predicted to alter relationships between trophic levels by changing the phenology of interacting species. We tested whether synchrony between two critical phenological events, budburst of host species and larval emergence from diapause of eastern spruce budworm, increased at warmer temperatures in the boreal forest in northeastern Canada. Budburst was up to 4.6 ± 0.7 days earlier in balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days earlier in black spruce per degree increase in temperature, in naturally occurring microclimates. Larval emergence from diapause did not exhibit a similar response. Instead, larvae emerged once average ambient temperatures reached 10°C, regardless of differences in microclimate. Phenological synchrony increased with warmer microclimates, tightening the relationship between spruce budworm and its host species. Synchrony increased by up to 4.5 ± 0.7 days for balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days for black spruce per degree increase in temperature. Under a warmer climate, defoliation could potentially begin earlier in the season, in which case, damage on the primary host, balsam fir may increase. Black spruce, which escapes severe herbivory because of a 2-week delay in budburst, would become more suitable as a resource for the spruce budworm. The northern boreal forest could become more vulnerable to outbreaks in the future.

The rise of phenology with climate change: an evaluation of IJB publications

In recent decades, phenology has become an important tool by which to measure both the impact of climate change on ecosystems and the feedback of ecosystems to the climate system. However, there has been little attempt to date to systematically quantify the increase in the number of scientific publications with a focus on phenology and climate change. In order to partially address this issue, we examined the number of articles (original papers, reviews and short communications) containing the terms 'phenology' and 'climate change' in the title, abstract or keywords, published in the International Journal of Biometeorology in the 60 years since its inception in 1957. We manually inspected all issues prior to 1987 for the search terms and subsequently used the search facility on the Web of Science online database. The overall number of articles published per decade remained relatively constant (255-378) but rose rapidly to 1053 in the most recent decade (2007-2016), accompanied by an increase (41-172) in the number of articles containing the search terms. A number of factors may have contributed to this rise, including the recognition of the value of phenology as an indicator of climate change and the initiation in 2010 of a series of conferences focusing on phenology which subsequently led to two special issues of the journal. The word 'phenology' was in use from the first issue, whereas 'climate change' only emerged in 1987 and peaked in 2014. New technologies such as satellite remote sensing and the internet led to an expansion of and greater access to a growing reservoir of phenological information. The application of phenological data included determining the impact of warming of phenophases, predicting wine quality and the pollen season, demonstrating the potential for mismatch to occur and both reconstructing and forecasting climate. Even though this analysis was limited to one journal, it is likely to be indicative of a similar trend across other scientific publications.

Bud break responds more strongly to daytime than night-time temperature under asymmetric experimental warming

Global warming is diurnally asymmetric, leading to a less cold, rather than warmer, climate. We investigated the effects of asymmetric experimental warming on plant phenology by testing the hypothesis that daytime warming is more effective in advancing bud break than night-time warming. Bud break was monitored daily in Picea mariana seedlings belonging to 20 provenances from Eastern Canada and subjected to daytime and night-time warming in growth chambers at temperatures varying between 8 and 16 °C. The higher advancements of bud break and shorter times required to complete the phenological phases occurred with daytime warming. Seedlings responded to night-time warming, but still with less advancement of bud break than under daytime warming. No advancement was observed when night-time warming was associated with a daytime cooling. The effect of the treatments was uniform across provenances. Our observations realized under controlled conditions allowed to experimentally demonstrate that bud break can advance under night-time warming, but to a lesser extent than under daytime warming. Prediction models using daily timescales could neglect the diverging influence of asymmetric warming and should be recalibrated for higher temporal resolutions.

Synchronisms and correlations of spring phenology between apical and lateral meristems in two boreal conifers

Phenological synchronisms between apical and lateral meristems could clarify some aspects related to the physiological relationships among the different organs of trees. This study correlated the phenological phases of bud development and xylem differentiation during spring 2010-14 in balsam fir (Abies balsamea Mill.) and black spruce [(Picea mariana Mill. (BSP)] of the Monts-Valin National Park (Quebec, Canada) by testing the hypothesis that bud development occurs after the reactivation of xylem growth. From May to September, we conducted weekly monitoring of xylem differentiation using microcores and bud development with direct observations on terminal branches. Synchronism between the beginning of bud development and xylem differentiation was found in both species with significant correlations between the phases of bud and xylem phenology. Degree-day sum was more appropriate in assessing the date of bud growth resumption, while thermal thresholds were more suitable for cambium phenology. Our results provide new knowledge on the dynamics of spring phenology and novel information on the synchronisms between two meristems in coniferous trees. The study demonstrates the importance of precisely defining the phases of bud development in order to correctly analyse the relationships with xylem phenology.

The bud break process and its variation among local populations of boreal black spruce

Phenology of local populations can exhibit adaptations to the current environmental conditions resulting from a close interaction between climate and genotype. The bud break process and its variations among populations were analyzed in greenhouse by monitoring the growth resumption in black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] seedlings originating from seeds of five stands across the closed boreal forest in Quebec, Canada. Bud break lasted 15 days and occurred earlier and quicker in northern provenances. Provenance explained between 10.2 and 32.3% of the variance in bud break, while the families accounted for a smaller but still significant part of the variance. The late occurrence of one phenological phase corresponded to a delayed occurrence of the others according to linear relationships. A causal model was proposed in the form of a chain of events with each phase of bud break being related to the previous and successive one, while no link was observed between non-adjacent phases. The adaptation of black spruce populations along the latitudinal gradient points toward a strategy based on rapid physiological processes triggered by temperature increase inducing high metabolic activity. The variation observed in bud break reflects an evolutionary trade-off between maximization of security and taking advantage of the short growing season. This work provides evidence of the phenological adaptations of black spruce to its local environmental conditions while retaining sizeable genetic diversity within populations. Because of the multigenic nature of phenology, this diversity should provide some raw material for adaptation to changing local environmental conditions.