Concurrent and lagged effects of spring greening on seasonal carbon gain and water loss across the Northern Hemisphere

Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales

In most of the world, conditions conducive to wildfires are becoming more prevalent. Net carbon emissions from wildfires contribute to a positive climate feedback that needs to be monitored, quantified, and predicted. Here we use a causal inference approach to evaluate the influence of top-down weather and bottom-up fuel precursors on wildfires. The top-down dominance on wildfires is more widespread than bottom-up dominance, accounting for 73.3% and 26.7% of regions, respectively. The top-down precursors dominate in the tropical rainforests, mid-latitudes, and eastern Siberian boreal forests. The bottom-up precursors dominate in North American and European boreal forests, and African and Australian savannahs. Our study identifies areas where wildfires are governed by fuel conditions and hence where fuel management practices may be more effective. Moreover, our study also highlights that top-down and bottom-up precursors show complementary wildfire predictability across timescales. Seasonal or interannual predictions are feasible in regions where bottom-up precursors dominate.

The legacy effects of rubber defoliation period on the refoliation phenology, leaf disease, and latex yield

The leaf phenology of trees has received particular attention for its crucial role in the global water and carbon balances, ecosystem, and species distribution. However, current studies on leaf phenology have mainly focused on temperate trees, while few studies including tropical trees. Little attention has been paid to globally extensive industrial plantations. Rubber plantations are important to both the local and global economies. In this study, we investigated the legacy effects of defoliation phenology on the following year's leaf flushing, leaf disease, and also latex yield of rubber trees, an economically important tree to local people and the world. Results show that extended duration of defoliation increased the subsequent duration of refoliation and rates of infection by powdery mildew disease, but led to reduced latex yield in March. This legacy effect of rubber defoliation may relate to the carbohydrate reserved in the trees. A longer duration of defoliation would consume more reserved carbohydrates, reducing available reserves for disease defense and latex production. Extended duration of defoliation period was associated with either a lower temperature before the cessation of latex tapping in October-November and/or a higher temperature after the cessation of latex tapping in December-January. Leaf falling signals the end of photosynthetic activities in deciduous trees. Thus, the leaf falling phenology will impact ecological processes involving rubber trees. Our findings indicated that the inclusion of defoliation periods in future rubber trees' research, will be crucial to furthering our understanding of leaf flushing, powdery mildew disease, and latex yield.

Seasonal biological carryover dominates northern vegetation growth

The state of ecosystems is influenced strongly by their past, and describing this carryover effect is important to accurately forecast their future behaviors. However, the strength and persistence of this carryover effect on ecosystem dynamics in comparison to that of simultaneous environmental drivers are still poorly understood. Here, we show that vegetation growth carryover (VGC), defined as the effect of present states of vegetation on subsequent growth, exerts strong positive impacts on seasonal vegetation growth over the Northern Hemisphere. In particular, this VGC of early growing-season vegetation growth is even stronger than past and co-occurring climate on determining peak-to-late season vegetation growth, and is the primary contributor to the recently observed annual greening trend. The effect of seasonal VGC persists into the subsequent year but not further. Current process-based ecosystem models greatly underestimate the VGC effect, and may therefore underestimate the CO2 sequestration potential of northern vegetation under future warming.