Non-invasive prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma development using serum fibrosis marker in chronic hepatitis C patients

The non-invasive serum biomarkers contributes to indicate liver fibrosis staging and evaluate the progress of chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic abilities of the non-invasive serum biomarkers to predict liver fibrosis staging and evaluate the progress of hepatitis B.

METHODS

We enrolled 433 patients with chronic HBV infection had complete medical data available for the study, who underwent percutaneous liver biopsy. The extent of fibrosis was assessed using the modified METAVIR score. The predictive values of the non-invasive serum biomarkers were evaluated by the areas under the receiving operator characteristics curves (AUROCs) with 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

The proportion of males with progressive stages of liver fibrosis was relatively larger, and the average age of patients with cirrhosis stages is older than the non-cirrhotic stages. We found PLT, GGT, ALP, TB, FIB4 and GPR to be significantly associated with liver fibrosis in our cohort. GGT showed a sensitivity of 71.4% and specificity of 76.7% in distinguishing cirrhosis (F4) from non-cirrhotic stages (F1-3), with an AUROC of 0.775 (95%CI 0.711-0.840).The AUROCs of the GPR in distinguishing cirrhosis (F4) from non-cirrhotic stages (F1-3) was 0.794 (95%CI 0.734-0.853), but it had a lower sensitivity of 59.2%. Additionally, GGT, FIB4, and GPR could differentiate advanced fibrosis (F3-4) from non-advanced fibrosis (F1-2) among individuals with chronic hepatitis B, with AUROCs of 0.723 (95%CI 0.668-0.777), 0.729 (95%CI 0.675-0.782), and 0.760 (95%CI: 0.709-0.811) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

GGT was a better biomarker to distinguish cirrhosis (F4) from non-cirrhotic stages (F1-3), while GPR was a better biomarker to identify advanced fibrosis (F3-4) and non-advanced fibrosis (F1-2) in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

Endoscopic ultrasonography-guided injection of cyanoacrylate in the treatment of gastroesophageal varices type 1: a single-center randomized study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

First, it has been demonstrated that endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS)-guided cyanoacrylate (CYA) injection (EUS-CYA) has greater efficacy than direct endoscopic injection of cyanoacrylate (DEI-CYA) for treating type 1-isolated gastric varices. However, it is necessary to conduct further studies to determine whether EUS has any advantage over the current guidelines for treating gastroesophageal varices type 1 (GOV1). Second, liver function is an important prognostic factor in patients with liver cirrhosis. Therefore, we evaluated the liver function of patients treated with EUS-CYA.

METHODS

In a single-center study, a prospective cohort from February 2021 to September 2022 involving 89 patients with cirrhosis with GOV1 were assigned to undergo EUS-CYA (n = 45) or DEI-CYA (n = 44). The success rate of CYA injection, the rate of overall rebleeding, the rate of reintervention, the complications during the follow-up period, and the liver function were compared.

RESULTS

In both groups, 100% of the operations were successful. The follow-up time of the two groups was 290 (153-398) days and 267 (177-416) days, respectively. In the EUS group, the perforating veins had an average diameter of 7.0 ± 2.7 mm, and they had a 100% occlusion rate. A statistically significant difference was found between the two groups regarding the number of sessions needed to eradicate GV (p = 0.005, pairwise comparisons were conducted using the Bonferroni correction method.), the late rebleeding rate after EUS-CYA [n = 3 (6.7%) vs n = 10 (22.7%); p = 0.032], and the incidence of postinjection ulcers [n = 4 (8.9%) vs n = 12 (27.3); p = 0.023)]. Following EUS or DEI-CYA treatment, the patient's liver function did not show any significant deterioration or decline.

CONCLUSION

EUS-CYA has a higher eradication success rate and fewer complications, recurrences, and rebleeding episodes than DEI-CYA used for GOV1 treatment. In addition, EUS-CYA did not impair liver function.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Assessment for Patients With Advanced Fibrosis After Eradication of Hepatitis C Virus

The identification of patients with advanced fibrosis who do not need any further hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance after the eradication of hepatitis C is pivotal. In this study, we developed a simple serum-based risk model that could identify patients with low-risk HCC. This was a nationwide multicenter study involving 16 Hospitals in Japan. Patients with advanced fibrosis (1,325 in a derivation cohort and 508 in a validation cohort) who achieved sustained virological responses at 24 weeks after treatment (SVR24) were enrolled. The HCC risk model at any point after SVR24 and its change were evaluated, and subsequent HCC development was analyzed. Based on the multivariable analysis, patients fulfilling all of the factors (GAF4 criteria: gamma-glutamyl transferase < 28 IU/L, alpha-fetoprotein < 4.0 ng/mL, and Fibrosis-4 Index < 4.28) were classified as low-risk and others were classified as high-risk. When patients were stratified at the SVR24, and 1 year, and 2 years after SVR24, subsequent HCC development was significantly lower in low-risk patients (0.5-1.1 per 100 person-years in the derivation cohort and 0.9-1.1 per 100 person-years in the validation cohort) than in high-risk patients at each point. HCC risk from 1 year after SVR24 decreased in patients whose risk improved from high-risk to low-risk (HCC incidence: 0.6 per 100 person-years [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.163 in the derivation cohort] and 1.3 per 100 person-years [HR = 0.239 in the validation cohort]) than in those with sustained high risk. Conclusion: The HCC risk model based on simple serum markers at any point after SVR and its change can identify patients with advanced fibrosis who are at low HCC risk, and these patients may be able to reduce HCC surveillance.

Endoscopic injection sclerotherapy improves liver function compared with endoscopic variceal ligation

Liver function is a most important prognostic factor in patients with liver cirrhosis. Also, portal hypertension is a fatal complication of liver cirrhosis and variceal treatment is indispensable. However, changes of liver functions after endoscopic variceal treatments are unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate prognosis and liver functions after endoscopic injection sclerotherapy (EIS) and endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL). A total of liver cirrhotic 103 patients who underwent prophylactic EIS and EVL were enrolled. Overall survival rate was higher in EIS group than EVL group (p = 0.03). Multivariate analysis showed that EIS was a negative factor for death (HR: 0.46, 95% confidence interval: 0.24–0.88, p = 0.02). Liver functions were assessed by blood test taken at before and 3 months after treatment. In EIS group, albumin and prothrombin time improved (p < 0.01), leading to improvement of Child–Pugh score, ALBI score and MELD score (p < 0.05). However, these did not improve in EVL group. EIS was a significant factor related to the elevated value of albumin after treatment in linear regression analysis (estimated regression coefficient: 0.17, 95% confidence interval: 0.05–0.29, p = 0.005). These results revealed that EIS could improve liver functions and prognosis.

Non-invasive tests for predicting liver outcomes in chronic hepatitis C patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Liver fibrosis leads to liver-related events in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) infection. Although non-invasive tests (NITs) are critical to early detection of the development of liver fibrosis, the prognostic role of NITs remains unclear due to the limited types of NITs and liver outcomes explored in previous studies.

AIM

To determine the prognostic value of NITs for risk stratification in CHC patients.

METHODS

The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews; no. CRD42019128176). The systematic review was performed in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Search was performed using MEDLINE and EMBASE databases under a timeframe from the inception of the databases through February 25, 2020. We restricted our search to CHC cohort studies reporting an association between liver fibrosis assessed by NITs and the development of hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensation, or mortality. Pooled hazard ratios (HR) and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for each NIT were estimated using a random effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed for NITs assessed at pre-treatment or post-treatment with sustained virologic response (SVR), treatment with either pegylated interferon and ribavirin or direct acting antiviral, Eastern or Western countries, and different cutoff points.

RESULTS

The present meta-analysis included 29 cohort studies, enrolling 69339 CHC patients. Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio (APRI) score, and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were found to have hepatocellular carcinoma predictive potential with pooled adjusted HRs of 2.48 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.91-3.23, I² = 96%], 4.24 (95%CI: 2.15-8.38, I² = 20%) and 7.90 (95%CI: 3.98-15.68, I² = 52%) and AUROCs of 0.81 (95%CI: 0.73-0.89, I² = 77%), 0.81 (95%CI: 0.75-0.87, I² = 68%), and 0.79 (95%CI: 0.63-0.96, I² = 90%), respectively. Pooled adjusted HR with a pre-treatment FIB-4 cutoff of 3.25 was 3.22 (95%CI: 2.32-4.47, I² = 80%). Pooled adjusted HRs for post-treatment with SVR FIB-4, APRI, and LSM were 3.01 (95%CI: 0.32-28.61, I² = 89%), 9.88 (95%CI: 2.21-44.17, I² = 24%), and 6.33 (95%CI: 2.57-15.59, I² = 17%), respectively. Pooled adjusted HRs for LSM in patients with SVR following direct acting antiviral therapy was 5.55 (95%CI: 1.47-21.02, I² = 36%). Pooled AUROCs for post-treatment with SVR FIB-4 and LSM were 0.75 (95%CI: 0.55-0.95, I² = 88%) and 0.84 (95%CI: 0.66-1.03, I² = 88%), respectively. Additionally, FIB-4 and LSM were associated with overall mortality, with pooled adjusted HRs of 2.07 (95%CI: 1.49-2.88, I² = 27%) and 4.04 (95%CI: 2.40-6.80, I² = 63%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

FIB-4, APRI, and LSM showed potential for risk stratification in CHC patients. Cutoff levels need further validation.

Attenuation coefficient (ATT) measurement for liver fat quantification in chronic liver disease

Liver fat is one of the main clinical features in chronic liver disease, and the number of fatty liver patients is increasing as the prevalence of obesity and metabolic syndrome increases globally. Noninvasive and quantitative assessment of liver fat content was made possible by recent technological advances. Attenuation coefficient (ATT) measurement is a noninvasive and quantitative liver fat measurement method used in clinical practice. The ATT value is significantly associated with histological steatosis grade. The diagnostic accuracy of ATT for histological steatosis grade is equivalent to controlled attenuation parameter (CAP), and ATT has a lower measurement failure rate than CAP because ATT can be measured on a B-mode image with the exact location of the region of interest. Furthermore, ATT measurement has high interobserver reproducibility. Since ATT measurement and other ultrasound-based modalities for liver fat quantification are easy to perform and inexpensive, these modalities are suitable for point-of-care and screening. Although emerging data suggest that quantitative liver fat content and its changes over time may be associated with disease progression in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, the association between ATT and disease progression has not been evaluated yet. Therefore, further investigation and validation studies are necessary to strengthen the clinical significance of ATT measurement in chronic liver disease.

Changes of liver stiffness measured by magnetic resonance elastography during direct-acting antivirals treatment in patients with chronic hepatitis C

Almost all patients achieved sustained virological response (SVR) by direct-acting antivirals (DAA) therapy, but it is not clear as to what extent DAA therapy affects changes in liver fibrosis after achieving SVR. In this study, we investigated the changes of liver stiffness by magnetic resonance elastogaraphy (MRE) during DAA therapy. A total of 308 patients were enrolled in the study. Liver stiffness was measured twice before and after DAA treatment using MRE and time-course change of liver stiffness was investigated. The median (interquartile range) values for liver stiffness were 4.2 (3.2-6.1) kPa at baseline and 3.3 (2.6-4.8) kPa at SVR, demonstrating a significant improvement (p < .01). A total of 44% of patients had no improvement in liver stiffness despite achieving SVR. In patients with advanced fibrosis (lower level of albumin [Alb] or histological fibrosis stage F4), it was difficult to improve liver stiffness. Except for Alb, there were no blood tests associated with nonimprovement in liver stiffness, making these cases difficult to predict. In conclusion, despite obtaining SVR, improvement in liver stiffness could not be obtained in some cases, especially in patients with advanced fibrosis. In these patients, liver stiffness must be followed even if SVR is obtained.

Change in Fibrosis 4 Index as Predictor of High Risk of Incident Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Eradication of Hepatitis C Virus

BACKGROUND

It is unclear whether the fibrosis 4 index (FIB-4), a marker of liver fibrosis, at baseline and change in FIB-4 after sustained virological response (SVR) is associated with incident hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. In this study, we examined the association of incident HCC risk with baseline FIB-4 and sustained high FIB-4 (>3.25) at any time point after SVR.

METHODS

A total of 3823 patients who received direct-acting antiviral treatment and achieved SVR were enrolled. The FIB-4 was measured 24 weeks after the end of direct-acting antiviral treatment and achievement of SVR (SVR24), and 1, 2, and 3 years after SVR24, after which subsequent HCC development was investigated.

RESULTS

In patients with an FIB-4 >3.25 at SVR24 and 1, 2, and 3 years after SVR24, subsequent HCC development was significantly higher than in those with an FIB-4 ≤3.25 at each point. The rates of HCC development 1, 2, 3, and 4 years after SVR24 were significantly higher in patients with sustained FIB-4 >3.25 than in those whose FIB-4 decreased to ≤3.25 (5.4%, 9.2%, 11.7%, and 16.0%, respectively, vs 2.2%, 3.1%, 3.7%, and 4.4%; P < .001). The adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for an FIB-4 >3.25 at SVR24 and 1, 2, and 3 years later were 3.38 (2.4-4.8), 2.95 (1.9-4.7), 2.62 (1.3-5.1), and 3.37 (1.4-9.8), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The FIB-4 could be used to assess HCC development risk at any time after SVR, and changes in FIB-4 were associated with changes in the HCC development risk. Repeated assessments of FIB-4 could serve as a prognostic indicator of a high-risk HCC cohort that may require more intensive HCC surveillance strategy.

Wisteria floribunda Agglutinin-Positive Mac-2 Binding Protein as a Screening Tool for Significant Liver Fibrosis in Health Checkup

Chronic liver disease is generally widespread, and a test for screening fibrotic subjects in a large population is needed. The ability of Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive mac-2 binding protein (WFA⁺-M2BP) to detect significant fibrosis was investigated in health checkup subjects in this research. Of 2021 health checkup subjects enrolled in this prospective cross-sectional study, those with WFA⁺-M2BP ≥ 1.0 were defined as high risk. Liver fibrosis was evaluated using magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) in subjects with high risk. The primary outcome was the positive predictive value (PPV) of WFA⁺-M2BP for significant fibrosis (liver stiffness ≥ 2.97 kPa by MRE). This trial was registered with the UMIN clinical trial registry, UMIN000036175. WFA⁺-M2BP ≥ 1.0 was observed in 5.3% of the 2021 subjects. The PPV for significant fibrosis with the threshold of WFA⁺-M2BP at ≥1.0, ≥1.1, ≥1.2, ≥1.3, ≥1.4, and ≥1.5 was 29.2%, 36.4%, 43.5%, 42.9%, 62.5%, and 71.4%, respectively. A WFA⁺-M2BP of 1.2 was selected as the optimal threshold for significant fibrosis among high-risk subjects, and the PPV, negative predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity for significant fibrosis were 43.5%, 84.0%, 71.4%, and 61.8%, respectively. WFA⁺-M2BP ≥ 1.2 was significantly associated with significant fibrosis, with an odds ratio (OR) of 4.04 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1–16, p = 0.04), but not FIB-4 ≥ 2.67 (OR: 2.40, 95%CI: 0.7–8.6, p-value = 0.2). In conclusion, WFA⁺-M2BP is associated with significant fibrosis and could narrow down potential subjects with liver fibrosis. The strategy of narrowing down fibrosis subjects using WFA⁺-M2BP may be used to screen for fibrotic subjects in a large population.

Clinical Utility of Mac-2 Binding Protein Glycosylation Isomer in Chronic Liver Diseases

An accurate evaluation of liver fibrosis is clinically important in chronic liver diseases. Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) is a novel serum marker for liver fibrosis. In this review, we discuss the role of M2BPGi in diagnosing liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B and C, chronic hepatitis C after sustained virologic response (SVR), and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). M2BPGi predicts not only liver fibrosis but also the hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development and prognosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B and C, chronic hepatitis C after SVR, NAFLD, and other chronic liver diseases. M2BPGi can also be used to evaluate liver function and prognosis in patients with cirrhosis. M2BPGi levels vary depending on the etiology and the presence or absence of treatment. Therefore, the threshold of M2BPGi for diagnosing liver fibrosis and predicting HCC development has to be adjusted according to the background and treatment status.

Non-invasive tests for the prediction of primary hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignancies in the world and it is one of the main complications of cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Even in the presence of a well-established follow-up protocol for cirrhotic patients, to date poor data are available on predictive markers for primary HCC occurrence in the setting of compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients (cACLD). The gold standard method to evaluate the prognosis of patients with cACLD, beyond liver fibrosis assessed with histology, is the measurement of the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). An HVPG ≥10 mmHg has been related to an increased risk of HCC in cACLD patients. However, these methods are burdened by additional costs and risks for patients and are mostly available only in referral centers. In the last decade increasing research has focused on the evaluation of several, simple, non-invasive tests (NITs) as predictors of HCC development. We reviewed the currently available literature on biochemical and ultrasound-based scores developed for the non-invasive evaluation of liver fibrosis and portal hypertension in predicting primary HCC. We found that the most reliable methods to assess HCC risk were the liver stiffness measurement, the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index score and the fibrosis-4 index. Other promising NITs need further investigations and validation for different liver disease aetiologies.

Wisteria floribunda Agglutinin-Positive Mac-2 Binding Protein but not α-fetoprotein as a Long-Term Hepatocellular Carcinoma Predictor

Identification of high-risk patients for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after sustained virological responses (SVR) is necessary to define candidates for long-term surveillance. In this study, we examined whether serum markers after 1 year of SVR could predict subsequent HCC development. Total 734 chronic hepatitis C patients without a history of HCC who achieved SVR with direct-acting antivirals were included. The regular surveillance for HCC started from 24 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR24). Factors at SVR24 and 1 year after SVR24 were analyzed for predicting HCC development. During the mean observation period of 19.7 ± 10 months, 24 patients developed HCC. At SVR24, Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive mac-2 binding protein (WFA±M2BP) ≥ 1.85 and α-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥ 6.0 ng/mL were independent factors of HCC development. However, at 1 year after SVR24, WFA±M2BP ≥ 1.85 was associated with subsequent HCC development (hazard ratio: 23.5, 95% confidence interval: 2.68-205) but not AFP. Among patients with WFA±M2BP ≥ 1.85 at SVR24, 42% had WFA±M2BP < 1.85 at 1 year after SVR24 (WFA±M2BP declined group). Subsequent HCC development was significantly lower in the declined group than in the non-declined group (1 year HCC rate: 0% vs. 9.4%, p = 0.04). In conclusion, WFA±M2BP but not AFP could identify high and no-risk cases of HCC at 1 year after SVR. Therefore, it was useful as a real-time monitoring tool to identify the candidates for continuous surveillance for HCC.

Liver stiffness and fibrosis-4 alone better predict liver events compared with aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C virus co-infected patients from ANRS CO13 HEPAVIH cohort

OBJECTIVES

HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection leads to major complications, and noninvasive markers developed to stage liver fibrosis could be used as prognostic markers. We aimed to compare the performances of liver stiffness (LS), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) to predict liver-related events in HIV/HCV co-infected patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

HIV/HCV co-infected patients from the ANRS CO13 HEPAVIH cohort were included if they had LS, FIB-4, and APRI measurements done in a window of 3 months. Primary outcome was the time between inclusion and occurrence of a liver-related event. Univariable and multivariable Fine and Gray models were performed. Predictive performances were compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) differences after correction of optimistic by bootstrap samples. Best cutoffs to predict liver-related events were estimated by sensitivity and specificity maximization.

RESULTS

A total of 998 patients were included. Overall, 70.7% were men. Their median age was 46.8 years. According to LS value, 204 (20.4%) patients had cirrhosis. Overall, 39 patients experienced at least one liver-related event. In univariable analysis, LS AUROC curve was significantly superior to FIB-4 and APRI AUROC curves, being 87.9, 78.2, and 75.0%, respectively. After adjustment on age, CD4 levels, and insulin resistance, no differences were observed. The best cutoffs to identify patients at low or high risk of liver-related events were below 8.5, 1.00, and 0.35 and above 16.5, 4.00, and 1.75 for LS, FIB-4, and APRI, respectively.

CONCLUSION

To predict HCV-related events, APRI had lower performance than LS and FIB-4. FIB-4 is as good as LS to predict HCV-related events, suggesting that it can be used for the management of HIV/HCV co-infected patients and replace LS.

Fibrosis Index Based on 4 Factors (FIB-4) Predicts Liver Cirrhosis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Patients

Background

Although both hepatic fibrosis progression and hepatitis C virus (HCV) contribute to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development, early detection of HCC remains challenging. Therefore, we evaluated clinical markers of fibrosis in HCV patients to improve early HCC diagnosis.

Material/Methods

Our retrospective study included 711 chronic HCV patients: 249 HCC patients and 462 non-HCC patients. To investigate the predictive ability of non-invasive scores for diagnosing HCC development, we compared 4 blood indices: fibrosis index based on 4 factors (FIB-4), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet count ratio index (APRI), aspartate aminotransferase-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR), and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase-to-platelet count ratio (GPR).

Results

HCC patients had significantly higher scores for all fibrosis indices compared to chronic HCV patients without HCC. Moreover, the diagnostic performance of FIB-4 (area under curve, AUC: 0.961) was superior to that of APRI, AAR, and GPR (AUC: 0.636, 0.746, and 0.661, respectively) for prediction of HCC. FIB-4 also out-performed other indices in the prediction of cirrhotic cases, with an AUC of 0.775 compared to other scores, which ranged from an AUC of 0.597 to 0.671.

Conclusions

Together, these results suggest that FIB-4 is an appropriate diagnostic indicator of liver cirrhosis and HCC in chronic HCV patients in China.

Comparison of the prognostic value of platelet-based prognostic models in patients with malignant hepatic tumors after TACE therapy

PURPOSE

To investigate the prognostic value of 17 platelet-based prognostic scores in patients with malignant hepatic tumors after TACE therapy.

METHODS

In total, 92 patients were divided into death group and survival group according to long-term follow-up results. The AUC was calculated to determine the optimal cut-off values for predicting prognosis. To determine better prognostic models, platelet-based models were analyzed separately after being showed as binary according to cut-off values. Cumulative survival rates of malignant hepatic tumors were calculated using Kaplan-Meier curves and differences were analyzed by the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify platelet-based prognostic scores associated with overall survival.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis showed that APGA, APRI, FIB-4, FibroQ, GUCI, King's score, Lok index, PAPAS, cirrhosis, number of tumors, vascular cancer embolus, AFP, ALP and APTT were significantly related to prognosis. A multivariate analysis showed that the APGA, number of tumors, ALP and APTT were independently associated with overall survival.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that the APGA, a platelet-based prognostic score, was an independent marker of prognosis in patients with malignant hepatic tumors after TACE and was superior to the other platelet-based prognostic scores in terms of prognostic ability.

Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive mac-2 binding protein as an age-independent fibrosis marker in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

The assessment of liver fibrosis is essential because it correlates with mortality risk in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). This study aims to examine whether serum fibrosis markers could identify candidate patients likely to have advanced fibrosis. We enrolled 352 patients with NAFLD and performed liver biopsies in 97 patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of liver stiffness by magnetic resonance elastography for histological advanced fibrosis was 0.910, and the optimal cutoff value was 4.07 kPa. To predict severe liver stiffness (≥4.07 kPa), the AUROC for Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive mac-2 binding protein (WFA+-M2BP) and FIB-4 were 0.897 (cutoff value, 1.08) and 0.880 (cutoff value, 2.53), respectively. After stratification of patients into four age groups as quartile, the optimal cutoff values of WFA+-M2BP for predicting severe liver stiffness were similar in each group (1.09, 1.08, 1.10, and 1.12). On the other hand, those of FIB-4 increased in parallel with age (1.47, 2.19, 2.99, and 3.88). In conclusion, WFA+-M2BP was precise for estimating severe liver stiffness in NAFLD with single cutoff value independent of age. Hence, identifying high-risk cases using WFA+-M2BP from a large number of NAFLD patients is clinically significant.

Fibrosis-4 index at diagnosis is associated with all-cause mortality in patients with microscopic polyangiitis and granulomatosis with polyangiitis

Background

The fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) has been reported to be associated with all-cause mortality in several chronic diseases. In this study, we investigated whether at diagnosis could be associated with all-cause mortality in patients with microscopic polyangiitis (MPA) and granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA).

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 132 MPA and GPA patients without chronic liver diseases. Conventional risk factors included old age (≥ 65 years), male gender, diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HTN) at diagnosis, and disease-related risk factor included GPA, antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody, Birmingham vasculitis activity score (BVAS) and five factor score (FFS (2009)). The cut-off of FIB-4 for significant liver fibrosis (S2–4) was set at 1.45.

Results

The mean age was 57.2 years and 27 patients (20.5%) had significant liver fibrosis (FIB-4 ≥ 1.45). Fifteen patients (11.4%) died during follow-up. In the univariable Cox Hazards model, age ≥ 65 years (Hazard ratio (HR) 5.055), DM (HR 3.446), HTN (HR 4.611), FFS (2009) ≥ 2 (HR 4.849) and FIB-4 ≥ 1.45 (HR 9.958) at diagnosis were significantly associated with all-cause mortality. In the multivariable Cox Hazards model, only FIB-4 at diagnosis ≥1.45 (HR 6.253, 95% confidence interval 1.398, 27.963) was associated with all-cause mortality during the follow-up in patients with MPA and GPA.

Conclusions

FIB-4 at diagnosis ≥1.45 is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality during follow-up in patients with MPA and GPA, and furthermore its predictive potential is higher than those of conventional and AAV-related risk factors for all-cause mortality.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12876-019-1007-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

FIB-4 index serves as a noninvasive prognostic biomarker in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Liver fibrosis index FIB-4 has been reported to be linked with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prognosis, but the results were not consistent. This study aimed to synthetically explore the relationship between FIB-4 and clinical outcomes of HCC.

METHODS

A number of online databases were searched for relevant articles published before March 1, 2018. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated to assess the prognostic value of the FIB-4 index in patients with HCC using Stata SE 12.0.

RESULTS

Eight articles (including 10 cohort studies) with 3485 HCC patients were finally included for analysis. The pooled results showed that FIB-4 index was significantly associated with overall survival (OS) for patients with HCC (HR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.41-2.07, P <.001). And HCC patients with higher FIB-4 score were at significantly greater risk of recurrence 1.53 (95% CI: 1.29-1.78, P <.001). Subgroup analysis based on the treatment, stage and analysis type also confirmed the prognostic values of the FIB-4 score for OS and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

FIB-4 index might be a useful predictive marker in patients with HCC.

Risk score system for the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with type 2 diabetes: Taiwan Diabetes Study

This study aims to develop a risk score system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with type 2 diabetes using the Taiwan National Diabetes Care Management Program database. This retrospective cohort study included 31,723 Chinese patients who had type 2 diabetes, aged 30-84 years. Participants were randomly grouped into derivation and validation sets in 2:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to identify the risk factors of HCC in the derivation set. Discrimination ability of the model was assessed by means of a receiver operating characteristic curve and performance was expressed as the c statistic, assessed internally on validation data sets. The average follow-up was 8.33 years with 748 HCC incident cases in the derivation set. The final HCC risk score system included age (-2 to 8 points), gender (0-2 points), smoking (0-2 points), variation in hemoglobin A1c (0-1 point), serum glutamic-pyruvic transaminase (0-6 points), liver cirrhosis (9 points), hepatitis B (4 points), hepatitis C (3 points), antidiabetes medications (0-3 points), and antihyperlipidemia medications and total/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (-4 to 2 points). The HCC risk score was the sum of these individual scores (range -6 to 40). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 3-, 5-, and 10-year HCC risks was 0.81, 0.80, and 0.77 for the derivation set, respectively. This HCC risk score system has good prediction accuracy and discriminatory ability, and serves a simple tool for HCC risk prediction.

Novel quantitative assessment system of liver steatosis using a newly developed attenuation measurement method

AIM

The present study has developed and evaluated the effectiveness of a new echo attenuation measurement function combined with an ultrasonic diagnostic system for the accurate diagnosis of liver steatosis.

METHODS

A multicenter prospective study involving patients with chronic hepatitis was carried out. All patients underwent liver biopsy, and attenuation coefficient (ATT) was measured on the same day. The fat area (%) of biopsy specimens was quantitatively evaluated. Correlations between ATT, steatosis grade, and fat area were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 351 patients were enrolled in this study. The median values of fat area for steatosis grades S0, S1, S2, and S3 were 0.6%, 3.2%, 6.4%, and 15.5%, respectively. A significant correlation was found between fat area and steatosis grade (P < 0.001). Similarly, the median values of ATT for steatosis grades S0, S1, S2, and S3 were 0.55, 0.63, 0.69, and 0.85 dB/cm/MHz, respectively, and ATT increased with an increase in the steatosis grade (P < 0.001). Attenuation coefficient was significantly correlated with fat area (r = 0.50, P < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve corresponding to S ≥ 1, S ≥ 2, and S ≥ 3 were 0.79, 0.87, and 0.96, respectively. Similarly, the sensitivity and specificity of S ≥ 1, S ≥ 2, and S ≥ 3 were 72%, 82%, and 87% and 72%, 82%, and 89%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The newly developed ATT measurement for evaluation of liver steatosis was closely correlated with steatosis grade and automated quantification of fat area, and it provides clinically relevant information.

Prognostic Performance of Ten Liver Function Models in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Radiofrequency Ablation

Liver functional capacity is a crucial survival determinant for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Noninvasive models were proposed to assess hepatic reserve, but their performance in outcome prediction is unclear. We aimed to investigate 10 currently used liver function models in HCC patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA). A total 499 HCC patients were prospectively identified. Homogeneity and corrected Akaike information criteria (AICc) were compared. Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independent survival predictors. Significance survival differences were found across 10 noninvasive models (all p < 0.001) except for GUCI and APRI grade 2 vs 3, and King’s score grade 1 vs 2. Among these models, ALBI grade showed the highest homogeneity and lowest AICs value, indicating a better prognostic performance. Within Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score 5 group, significant survival difference was demonstrated between ALBI grade 1 and 2 (p < 0.001); for those with CTP score 6 or higher, only ALBI grade 2 and 3 showed survival difference (p < 0.001). Cox analysis disclosed that ALBI grade, tumor size and performance status were independent prognostic predictors. There was significant correlation between CTP score and other 9 models. We conclude that ALBI grade may serve as objective and feasible surrogate for prognostic prediction in HCC patients undergoing RFA.

Engagement in Care of High-Risk Hepatitis C Patients with Interferon-Free Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapies

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The extent to which hepatitis C (HCV) treatment uptake is improved following introduction of interferon-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments is unknown. The purpose of this study was to determine HCV patient engagement and barriers to care for accessing DAA treatments in a real-world setting.

METHODS

Patients with HCV viremia at high risk for fibrosis were identified using the Veterans Affairs (VA) registry within San Diego's VA in October 2014. Patients not enrolled in HCV clinic were systematically contacted by letter and phone. Logistic regression was used to examine patient factors associated with subsequent engagement in care over 12-20 months.

RESULTS

In the local registry of 2089 patients, 481 were identified with high-risk fibrosis scores. Of those, 380 (79%) were eligible for antiviral treatment, and 178/380 (47%) patients were actively followed in clinic. The remaining 202/380 (53%) patients were never seen by a HCV clinic provider or lost to follow-up. Of these, 114/380 (30%) of the treatment-eligible cohort remained non-engaged in care following outreach. Compared with patients engaged in care, non-engaged patients were significantly more likely to have homelessness, COPD comorbidity, or active alcohol or/and drug use. Overall 74.4% of patients engaged in HCV clinic received antiviral treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

A significant portion of eligible HCV patients could not be engaged in treatment after a programmatic outreach effort. These data indicate that more sustained or innovative outreach efforts are needed in order to maximize treatment access, with specific interventions targeting those with unstable housing and active alcohol/substance use disorders.

FIB-4 and imaging for measuring fibrosis in hepatitis C virus

OBJECTIVES

Noninvasive measures are widely used to assess fibrosis and may be used to prioritize hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. We examined risks for likely fibrosis in patients with chronic HCV infection using fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and imaging.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A HCV screening program diagnosed chronic HCV in patients born from 1945 to 1965 admitted in a safety net hospital. Likely fibrosis was based on FIB-4 (≥1.45) alone or combined with imaging interpreted as fibrosis or cirrhosis. Logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (AORs) for demographic, clinical, and insurance factors associated with each outcome. Using multiple linear regression among patients with likely fibrosis, we examined associations with higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores.

RESULTS

Using FIB-4 alone, 57% (83/146) of patients had likely fibrosis versus 43% (63/148) using FIB-4 plus imaging. Obesity/overweight and Hispanic ethnicity had over three-fold to four-fold higher AORs for fibrosis, respectively, based on FIB-4 plus imaging, but both AORs were only two-fold greater with FIB-4 alone. Being uninsured was significantly associated with fibrosis based on FIB-4 alone [AOR=2.40 (95% confidence interval 1.01-5.70)] but not with imaging. Heavy alcohol use and older age were associated with higher AORs of fibrosis with both measures (all P<0.004). MELD scores were ∼3 points higher for uninsured patients, regardless of measure (both P<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Using FIB-4 plus imaging to identify fibrosis in chronic HCV, higher risks are seen for Hispanics and overweight/obese individuals than using FIB-4 alone. Higher MELD scores at diagnosis for the uninsured indicate delayed access to care.

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development after Hepatitis C Virus Eradication Using Serum Wisteria floribunda Agglutinin-Positive Mac-2-Binding Protein

We aimed to clarify the association between a novel serum fibrosis marker, Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2-binding protein (WFA⁺-M2BP), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in 355 patients with chronic hepatitis C who achieved sustained virologic response (SVR) through interferon-based antiviral therapy. Pretreatment serum WFA⁺-M2BP levels were quantified and the hazard ratios (HRs) for HCC development were retrospectively analyzed by Cox proportional hazard analysis. During the median follow-up time of 2.9 years, 12 patients developed HCC. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that high serum WFA⁺-M2BP (≥2.80 cut off index (COI), HR = 15.20, p = 0.013) and high fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index (≥3.7, HR = 5.62, p = 0.034) were independent risk factors for HCC development. The three- and five-year cumulative incidence of HCC in patients with low WFA⁺-M2BP were 0.4% and 0.4%, respectively, whereas those of patients with high WFA⁺-M2BP were 7.7% and 17.6%, respectively (p < 0.001). In addition, combination of serum WFA⁺-M2BP and FIB-4 indices successfully stratified the risk of HCC: the five-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 26.9%, 6.8%, and 0.0% in patients with both, either, and none of these risk factors, respectively (p < 0.001). In conclusion, pretreatment serum WFA⁺-M2BP level is a useful predictor for HCC development after achieving SVR.

Clinical Model for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinomas in Patients with Post-Sustained Virologic Responses of Chronic Hepatitis C: A Case Control Study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

No clinical model exists to predict the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in sustained virologic response-achieving (HCC after SVR) patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC).

METHODS

We performed a case-control study using a clinical database to research the risk factors for HCC after SVR. A predictive model based on risk factors was established, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated.

RESULTS

In the multivariate model, an initial diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis and post-SVR albumin reductions of 1 g/L were associated with 21.7-fold (95% CI, 4.2 to 112.3; p<0.001) and 1.3-fold (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.7; p=0.004) increases in the risk of HCC after SVR, respectively. A predictive model based on an initial diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis (yes, +1; no, 0) and post-SVR albumin ≤36.0 g/L (yes, +1; not, 0) predicted the occurrence of HCC after SVR with a cutoff value of >0, an AUC of 0.880, a sensitivity of 0.833, a specificity of 0.896, and a negative predictive value of 0.956.

CONCLUSIONS

An initial diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis combined with a post-SVR albumin value of ≤36.0 g/L predicts the occurrence of HCC after SVR in patients with CHC.

Transient Elastography is Superior to FIB-4 in Assessing the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B

Liver stiffness (LS), assessed using transient elastography (TE), and (FIB-4) can both estimate the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We compared prognostic performances of LS and FIB-4 to predict HCC development in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).Data from 1308 patients with CHB, who underwent TE, were retrospectively analyzed. FIB-4 was calculated for all patients. The cumulative rate of HCC development was assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves. The predictive performances of LS and FIB-4 were evaluated using time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves.The mean age (883 men) was 50 years. During follow-up (median 6.1 years), 119 patients developed HCC. The areas under the ROC curves (AUROCs) predicting HCC risk at 3, 5, and 7 years were consistently greater for LS than for FIB-4 (0.791-0.807 vs 0.691-0.725; all P < 0.05). Similarly, when the respective AUROCs for LS and FIB-4 at every time point during the 7-year follow-up were plotted, LS also showed consistently better performance than FIB-4 after 1 year of enrollment. The combined use of LS and FIB-4 significantly enhanced the prognostic performance compared with the use of FIB-4 alone (P < 0.05), but the performance of the combined scores was statistically similar to that of LS alone (P > 0.05).LS showed significantly better performance than FIB-4 in assessing the risk of HCC development, and the combined use of LS and FIB-4 did not provide additional benefit compared with the use of LS alone. Hence, LS assessed using TE might be helpful for optimizing HCC surveillance strategies.

Evaluation of Fucosylated Haptoglobin and Mac-2 Binding Protein as Serum Biomarkers to Estimate Liver Fibrosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C

Fucosylated haptoglobin (Fuc-Hpt) and Mac-2 binding protein (Mac-2 bp) are identified as cancer biomarkers, based on the results from a glyco-proteomic analysis. Recently, we reported that these glyco-biomarkers were associated with liver fibrosis and/or ballooning hepatocytes in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We evaluated the ability of these glycoproteins to estimate liver fibrosis in 317 patients with chronic hepatitis C. We measured the serum Fuc-Hpt and Mac-2 bp levels using a lectin-antibody ELISA and ELISA, respectively. The serum levels of both Fuc-Hpt and Mac-2 bp increased with the progression of liver fibrosis. The multivariate analysis revealed that Mac-2 bp was an independent factor associated with moderate liver fibrosis (F ≥ 2). In contrast, Fuc-Hpt was an independent factor associated with advanced liver fibrosis (F ≥ 3). In terms of evaluating liver fibrosis, the serum levels of these glycomarkers were correlated with well-known liver fibrosis indexes, such as the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and Fibrosis-4 (FIB4) index. An assay that combined the APRI or FIB4 index and the Fuc-Hpt or Mac-2 bp levels increased the AUC value for diagnosing hepatic fibrosis. Interestingly, the cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was significantly higher in the patients with elevated serum levels of Fuc-Hpt and Mac-2 bp. In conclusion, both Fuc-Hpt and Mac-2 bp could be useful glyco-biomarkers of liver fibrosis and predictors of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

The FIB-4 index is a significant prognostic factor in patients with non-B non-C hepatocellular carcinoma after curative surgery

PURPOSE

The aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index were developed as a non-invasive parameter for predicting liver fibrosis. This study aimed to validate the APRI and FIB-4 indexes in patients treated with curative therapy for non-B non-C (NBNC) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Accumulated database comprising 399 patients who underwent hepatectomy was reviewed retrospectively. Analyses were performed to evaluate whether the APRI and FIB-4 indexes are predictors of liver cirrhosis and/or the prognosis in patients with NBNC-HCC. Forty-seven patients with NBNC-HCC who underwent curative radiofrequency ablation therapy (RFA) in the same period were enrolled as the validation set.

RESULTS

The APRI and FIB-4 indexes were significantly higher in the cirrhosis group than in the no-cirrhosis group (P = 0.001 and P < 0.001, respectively). A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the FIB-4 index was more accurate in predicting background liver cirrhosis than the APRI. According to a multivariate analysis, an FIB-4 index larger than 2.7 (hazard ratio 2.11 and 2.21, 95 % confidence interval 1.06-4.18 and 1.38-3.54, P = 0.033 and P = 0.001) remained significant independent predictors of overall and recurrence-free survival, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The present findings showed that the FIB-4 index is a significant predictor of background liver cirrhosis and the prognosis after curative resection for NBNB-HCC.

Prognostic Value of the Fibrosis-4 Index in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type-1 Infected Patients Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy with or without Hepatitis C Virus

Objective

To evaluate the Fibrosis (FIB)-4 index as a predictor of major liver-related events (LRE) and liver-related death (LRD) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type-1 patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).

Design

Retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort study.

Setting

Italian HIV care centers participating to the ICONA Foundation cohort.

Participants

Treatment-naive patients enrolled in ICONA were selected who: initiated cART, had hepatitis C virus (HCV) serology results, were HBsAg negative, had an available FIB-4 index at cART start and during follow up.

Methods

Cox regression models were used to determine the association of FIB4 with the risk of major LRE (gastrointestinal bleeding, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, hepato-renal syndrome or hepatocellular carcinoma) or LRD.

Results

Three-thousand four-hundred seventy-five patients were enrolled: 73.3% were males, 27.2% HCV seropositive. At baseline (time of cART initiation) their median age was 39 years, had a median CD4+ T cell count of 260 cells/uL, and median HIV RNA 4.9 log copies/mL, 65.9% had a FIB-4 <1.45, 26.4% 1.45–3.25 and 7.7% >3.25. Over a follow up of 18,662 person-years, 41 events were observed: 25 major LRE and 16 LRD (incidence rate, IR, 2.2 per 1,000 PYFU [95% confidence interval, CI 1.6–3.0]). IR was higher in HCV seropositives as compared to negatives (5.9 vs 0.5 per 1,000 PYFU). Higher baseline FIB-4 category as compared to <1.45 (FIB-4 1.45–3.25: HR 3.55, 95% CI 1.09–11.58; FIB-4>3.25: HR 4.25, 1.21–14.92) and time-updated FIB-4 (FIB-4 1.45–3.25: HR 3.40, 1.02–11.40; FIB-4>3.25: HR 21.24, 6.75–66.84) were independently predictive of major LRE/LRD, after adjusting for HIV- and HCV-related variables, alcohol consumption and type of cART.

Conclusions

The FIB-4 index at cART initiation, and its modification over time are risk factors for major LRE or LRD, independently of infection with HCV and could be used to monitor patients on cART.

High priority for hepatitis C screening in safety net hospitals: Results from a prospective cohort of 4582 hospitalized baby boomers

Low-income populations are disproportionately affected by hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Thus, implementing baby boomer screening (born 1945-1965) for HCV may be a high priority for safety net hospitals. We report the prevalence and predictors of HCV infection and advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis based on the Fibrosis-4 score plus imaging for a baby boomer cohort admitted to a safety net hospital over a 21-month interval with >9 months of follow-up. Anti-HCV antibody testing was performed for 4582, or 90%, of all never-screened patients, of whom 312 (6.7%) tested positive. Adjusted odds ratios of testing anti-HCV-positive were 2.66 for men versus women (P<0.001), 1.25 for uninsured versus insured (P=0.06), 0.70 for Hispanics versus non-Hispanic whites (P=0.005), and 0.93 per year of age (P<0.001). Among 287 patients tested for HCV RNA (91% of all anti-HCV-positive cases), 175 (61%) were viremic (3.8% overall prevalence in cohort), which was 5% less likely per year of age (P<0.03). Noninvasive staging of 148 (84.6%) chronic HCV patients identified advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis in 50 (33.8%), with higher adjusted odds ratios of 3.21 for Hispanics versus non-Hispanic whites/Asians (P=0.02) and 1.18 per year of age (P=0.001). Other factors associated with significantly higher adjusted odds ratios of advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis were alcohol abuse/dependence, obesity, and being uninsured.

CONCLUSION

In this low-income, hospitalized cohort, 4% of 4582 screened baby boomers were diagnosed with chronic HCV, nearly twice the rate in the community; one-third had noninvasive testing that indicated advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis, which was significantly more likely for Hispanics, those of older age, those with obesity, those with alcohol abuse/dependence, and those who lacked insurance.

FIB-4 index for assessing the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with Child-Pugh class A liver function

PURPOSE

We evaluated the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with Child-Pugh (C-P) class A based on FIB-4 index, which is a liver fibrosis marker.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 915 HCC patients with C-P class A were investigated. We assessed the prognosis using FIB-4 index, and factors associated with survival rates were analyzed in these patients.

RESULTS

When patients were categorized according to FIB-4 index as <2.0 (n = 93), ≥ 2.0 and <4.0 (n = 311), and ≥ 4.0 (n = 511), survival rates at 5 years were 70.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 59.0-79.9], 56.4% (95% CI 50.1-62.5), and 47.1% (95% CI 42.2-52.1), respectively. Patients with FIB-4 index <2.0 had a higher survival rate than the other groups (≥ 4.0 vs ≥ 2.0 and <4.0, p = 0.010; ≥ 2.0 and <4.0 vs <2.0, p = 0.028). We were able to predict prognosis in patients with C-P score 5 by FIB-4 index, but survival rate did not significantly differ in patients with C-P score 6. Multivariate analysis identified C-P score, FIB-4 index [≥ 2.0 and <4.0; hazard ratios (HRs) 1.638 (95% CI 1.084-2.474); p = 0.019/≥ 4.0; HR 1.828 (95% CI 1.217-2.744); p = 0.004], Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive α-fetoprotein, tumor size, number, vascular invasion, antiviral therapy, and hepatectomy as independent predictive factors for survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The FIB-4 index is useful for assessing prognosis in HCC patients with C-P class A, especially those with C-P score 5.

Significance of platelet count and platelet-based models for hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence

AIM

To explore the effects of platelet count (PLT) and 11 platelet-based indices on postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 172 HCC patients who were treated by partial hepatectomy. Preoperative data, including laboratory biochemical results, were used to calculate the 11 indices included in the analysis. We performed receiver operating characteristic curve analysis to determine the optimal cut-off values for predicting recurrence. Cumulative rates of HCC recurrence were calculated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and differences were analyzed by log-rank tests. Multivariate analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of recurrence, early recurrence (within one year after surgery), and late recurrence in HCC. To obtain better prognostic models, PLT-based indices were analyzed separately after being expressed as binary and continuous variables. Two platelet-unrelated, validated HCC prognostic models were included in the analyses as reference indices. Additional analyses were performed after patients were stratified based on hepatitis B virus infection status, cirrhosis, and tumor size to investigate the significance of platelets in different subgroups.

RESULTS

In the study cohort, 44.2% (76/172) of patients experienced HCC recurrence, and 50.6% (87/172) died during a median follow-up time of 46 mo. PLT and five of the 11 platelet-related models were significant predisposing factors for recurrence (P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that, among the clinical parameters, presence of ascites, PLT ≥ 148 × 10(9)/L, alkaline phosphatase ≥ 116 U/L, and tumor size ≥ 5 cm were independently associated with a higher risk of HCC recurrence (P < 0.05). Independent and significant models included the aspartate aminotransferase/PLT index, fibrosis index based on the four factors, fibro-quotient, aspartate aminotransferase/PLT/γ-glutamyl transpeptidase/alpha-fetoprotein index, and the PLT/age/alkaline phosphatase/alpha-fetoprotein/aspartate aminotransferase index. There were different risk factors between early and late recurrences, and PLT and these indices were more inclined to influence late recurrence. PLT was only predictive of recurrence in non-cirrhotic HCC patients, and was not influenced by tumor size, which was a critical confounder in our study.

CONCLUSION

PLT and PLT-based noninvasive models are effective tools for predicting postoperative recurrence, especially late recurrence. Larger cohorts are needed to validate our findings.

Tumor Markers for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Simple and Significant Predictors of Outcome in Patients with HCC

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of tumor markers in evaluating outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains to be clarified.

SUMMARY

The usefulness of the HCC tumor markers, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP-L3), and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) was reviewed. Elevations in these tumor markers at the time of HCC diagnosis correlate with disease progression as assessed by both imaging studies and pathologic examinations. The combination of these three tumor markers results in good predictive ability for patient survival after diagnosis. In addition, combination at the time of HCC diagnosis of these three tumor markers (as a measure of tumor progression) and serum albumin and bilirubin levels (as indicators of remnant liver function) can be used for HCC staging and further predicts prognosis in patients with HCC.

KEY MESSAGE

The prognosis of patients with HCC can be well discriminated based solely on serum markers. Staging of HCC with serum markers is objective; if stored serum samples are available, HCC stages can be standardized across different countries and time periods.

The prognostic values of 12 cirrhosis-relative noninvasive models in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinogenesis is associated with the progression of cirrhosis, and the latter further aggravates tumor development and prognosis. The aim of the study was to investigate the prognostic values of 12 cirrhosis-relative noninvasive models in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 363 HCC patients who either underwent partial hepatectomy (PH) or received transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TCAE). Preoperative data were collected to calculate these indices using the original formulas. Diagnostic accuracy of these models in detection of cirrhosis was evaluated by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. Multivariate analyses were performed to assess the independent prognostic significance of the 12 indicators.

RESULTS

Aspartate aminotransferase-platelet ratio index (APRI) and Goteborg University Cirrhosis Index (GUCI) were found to be significant in discriminating cirrhotic patients from non-cirrhotic individuals. When the indices were expressed as continuous variables, multivariate analyses indicated that APRI and GUCI were independent indices to predict overall survival in patients underwent PH, with a hazard ratio (HR) value 1.04 (p = 0.005) and 1.07 (p = 0.001), respectively. In the cohort of TACE, APRI and GUCI were independently associated with survival as well.

CONCLUSION

Of the 12 indices, APRI and GUCI were relatively accurate predictors of cirrhosis status as well as outcome of HCC. As only a limited study population was enrolled in the current study, larger cohorts are needed to validate our results.

Comparison of AI techniques for prediction of liver fibrosis in hepatitis patients

Globally one in twelve people have the Hepatitis B or Hepatitis C virus. Diagnosis and treatment of this disease is guided by liver biopsies where a small amount of tissue is removed by a surgeon and examined by a pathologist to determine the fibrosis stage from F(0) (no damage) to F(4) (cirrhosis). Biopsies are costly and carry some risk for the patient. Non-invasive techniques for determining fibrosis stage have been developed and evaluated since 2003. Non-invasive methods have utilized serum markers, imaging test, and genetic studies. The accuracy of these non-invasive techniques has not achieved sufficient acceptance and so the invasive biopsy is still considered the gold standard.Clinical decision support systems (CDSS) use decision support system theory and technology to assist clinicians in the evaluation and treatment process. Using historical clinical data and the relationship processed by Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to aid physicians in their decision making process is the goal of CDSS. The CDSS provides a large number of medical support functions to help clinicians make the most reasonable diagnosis and choose the best treatment measures.This paper applies four artificial intelligence predictive techniques to publicly available data on 424 Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C patients. Demographic and standard serum markers are utilized to predict fibrosis stage and compare these predictions to known biopsy results. A final decision tree evaluation is applied to make a final prediction. We have also developed a publically available web application that can be used as a prototype for presenting AI predictive results in a CDSS environment based on these models. This technique along with others could mitigate the need for some liver biopsies in the more than 500 million Hepatitis B and C patients worldwide with additional validation and verification.