Searching for predictors of surgical complications in critically ill surgery patients in the intensive care unit: a review

Predictive Value of Perioperative Blood Lactic Acid Levels for Postoperative Crisis in Myasthenia Gravis Patients Undergoing Thymectomy

INTRODUCTION/AIMS

Postoperative myasthenic crisis (POMC), which occurs specifically after thymectomy in myasthenia gravis (MG) patients, is a serious complication with known risk factors such as prior myasthenic crisis. However, the predictive value of perioperative blood lactic acid levels (BLAL) for POMC remains unclear. This study aims to determine whether changes in perioperative BLAL can predict POMC in MG patients undergoing thymectomy.

METHODS

A total of 340 patients diagnosed with MG and undergoing thymectomy at the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University were enrolled (January 2008-September 2018). Multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to discern independent factors linked with POMC.

RESULTS

Among the patients with POMC, notable differences including higher Myasthenia Gravis Foundation of America (MGFA) stage, and history of preoperative myasthenic crisis were observed. Higher postoperative lactic acid levels and the extent of changes were more prevalent in the POMC group. The multivariate analysis unveiled history of myasthenic crisis (odds ratio, OR: 67.18), postoperative BLAL change ratio greater than 50% (OR: 2.86), the video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) approach (OR: 4.33), and higher preoperative BLAL (OR per unit: 2.68) were associated with POMC. Both continuous and grouped lactic acid models demonstrated a good predictive capability, yielding area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.84 and 0.83, respectively. The optimal threshold for 24-h postoperative BLAL was 1.98 mmol/L.

DISCUSSION

These findings offer valuable insights for clinical decision-making and monitoring of prognosis in managing patients with MG. Future research should explore further the underlying mechanisms linking elevated lactate levels to POMC.

Evaluation of the performance of disease severity indices (SOFA, SAPS III, and MPM II) for the prediction of mortality rate in COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care units: a retrospective cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic created a high demand for hospital beds and intensive care, which led to the collapse of healthcare systems. Therefore, it is critical to identify factors associated with increased mortality in patients to prioritize high-risk individuals.

AIM

Given the potential for similar pandemics in the future, this study investigated predictors of mortality in ICU patients with COVID-19 and their correlation with mortality rates.

STUDY DESIGN

In this retrospective study, all patients admitted to the ICUs of Ghaem and Imam Reza tertiary hospitals in Mashhad with a definitive diagnosis of COVID-19 from March 21, 2020, to December 1, 2021, were evaluated for disease severity assessment criteria, including SOFA, SAPS III, and MPM II.

RESULTS

One hundred seventy-two patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to the ICU were evaluated (147 patients in the non-survivor group and 25 patients in the survivor group. The median SAPS, SOFA, and MPM scores were significantly higher in non-survivors (p<0.001 in all cases). Higher SAPS, SOFA, and MPM were associated with an increased risk of mortality in COVID-19 patients in the ICU. The best cut-off points for the three scoring systems, SAPS, SOFA, and MPM, were 39, 6, and 13.7, respectively. The AUC value of the SOFA score was significantly higher than the SAPS (P = 0.0274) and MPM (P = 0.0209) scores.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU with higher SOFA, MPM, and SAPS scores suffered from higher mortality rates. Because the SOFA score showed high predictive accuracy, this scoring system should be considered a priority as an essential tool in triaging and managing critically ill COVID-19 patients.

An Integrated Approach Based on Clinical Data Combined with Metabolites and Biomarkers for the Assessment of Post-Operative Complications after Cardiac Surgery

Background: Early diagnosis of post-operative complications is an urgent task, allowing timely prescribing of appropriate therapy and reducing the cost of patient treatment. The purpose of this study was to determine whether an integrated approach based on clinical data, along with metabolites and biomarkers, had greater predictive value than the models built on fewer data in the early diagnosis of post-operative complications after cardiac surgery. Methods: The study included patients (n = 62) admitted for planned cardiac surgery (coronary artery bypass grafting with cardiopulmonary bypass) with (n = 26) or without (n = 36) post-operative complications. Clinical and laboratory data on the first day after surgery were analyzed. Additionally, patients' blood samples were collected before and on the first day after surgery to determine biomarkers and metabolites. Results: Multivariate PLS-DA models, predicting the presence or absence of post-operative complications, were built using clinical data, concentrations of metabolites and biomarkers, and the entire data set (ROC-AUC = 0.80, 0.71, and 0.85, respectively). For comparison, we built univariate models using the EuroScore2 and SOFA scales, concentrations of lactate, the dynamic changes of 4-hydroxyphenyllactic acid, and the sum of three sepsis-associated metabolites (ROC-AUC = 0.54, 0.79, 0.62, 0.58, and 0.70, respectively). Conclusions: The proposed complex model using the entire dataset had the best characteristics, which confirms the expediency of searching for new predictive models based on a variety of factors.

The Role of C-reactive Protein and Procalcitonin in Predicting the Occurrence of Pancreatic Fistula in Patients who Underwent Laparoscopic Pancreaticoduodenectomy: a Retrospective Study

The occurrence of postoperative pancreatic fistula following laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy (LPD) is a significant concern, yet there is currently a lack of consensus on reliable predictive methods for this complication. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the clinical significance of C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) values and their reliability in early predicting the development of clinically relevant pancreatic fistula (CRPF) following LPD.A retrospective analysis was conducted using data from 120 patients who had LPD between September 2019 and December 2021. Preoperative assessment data, standard patients' demographic and clinicopathological characteristics, intra- and postoperative evaluation, as well as postoperative laboratory values on postoperative days (PODs) 1, 3, and 7, including white blood cells (WBCs), CRP, and PCT, were prospectively recorded on a dedicated database. Two clinicians separately collected and cross-checked all of the data.Among 120 patients [77 men (64%), 43 women (36%], CRPF occurred in 15 patients (11 grade B and 4 grade C fistulas). The incidence rate of CRPF was 12.3%. A comparison of the median values of WBCs, PCT, and CRP across the two groups revealed that the CRPF group had higher values on most PODs than the non-CRPF group. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) and cutoff values. It was discovered that POD 3 has the most accurate and significant values for WBCs, CRP, and PCT. According to the ROC plots, the AUC for WBCs was 0.842, whereas the AUC for PCT was 0.909. As for CRP, the AUC was 0.941 (95% CI 0.899-0.983, p < 0.01) with a cutoff value of 203.45, indicating a sensitivity of 93.3% and specificity of 91.4%.Both CRP and PCT can be used to predict the early onset of CRPF following LPD, with CRP being slightly superior on POD 3.

Predictive Value of Immune Cell Subsets for Mortality Risk in Patients With Sepsis

This study investigates the prognostic value of immune cell subsets in assessing the risk of death in patients with sepsis. This retrospective study collected 169 patients from March 2020 to February 2021 at our hospital. Baseline data were collected from patients. The absolute values (Abs) and percentages (%) of immune cell subsets for lymphocytes, T cells, CD4+ cells, CD8+, B cells, NK cells, and NKT cells were measured using flow Cytometry. Among the included patients, 43 patients were in the nonsurvivor group and 126 patients were in the survivor group. The age of patients in the nonsurvivor survivor was higher than that of survivor group patients (P = .020). SOFA, APACHE II, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin were higher in the nonsurvivor group than in the survivor group (all P values < .05). Multivariate regression analysis showed that lymphocytes (%) and SOFA were independent risk factors affecting patients' prognosis. Lymphocytes (%) have the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (0.812). The model area under the ROC curve for immune cell subsets was 0.800, with a sensitivity of 72.09%, and specificity of 79.27% (z = 7.796, P <  .001). Analysis of patient prognosis by immune cell subsets diagnostic showed statistically significant differences in the grouping of cut-off values for all 5 indicators (all P < .05). The lymphocytes (%) and SOFA score are independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients. A moderate predictive power for mortality in sepsis patients by immune cell subsets model.

The use of APACHE II, SOFA, SAPS 3, C-reactive protein/albumin ratio, and lactate to predict mortality of surgical critically ill patients: A retrospective cohort study

Several prognostic indices have been employed to predict the outcome of surgical critically ill patients. Among them, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS 3) are widely used. It seems that biological markers such as C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin, and blood lactate levels correlate with the degree of inflammation during the immediate postoperative phase and could be used as independent predictors. The objective of this study is to compare the different predictive values of prognostic indices and biological markers in the outcome of 847 surgical patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) in the postoperative phase.The patients were divided into survivors (n = 765, 57.4% males, age 61, interquartile range 51-71) and nonsurvivors (n = 82, 57.3% males, age 70, interquartile range 58-79). APACHE II, APACHE II death probability (DP), SOFA, SAPS 3, SAPS 3 DP, CRP, albumin, and lactate were recorded on ICU admission (first 24 hours). The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were used to measure the index accuracy to predict mortality.The AUROC and 95% CI for APACHE II, APACHE II DP, SOFA, SAPS 3, SAPS 3 DP, CRP/albumin ratio, CRP, albumin, and lactate were 0.850 (0.824-0.873), 0.855 (0.829-0.878), 0.791 (0.762-0.818), 0.840 (0.813-0.864), 0.840 (0.813-0.864), 0.731 (0.700-0.761), 0.708 (0.676-0.739), 0.697 (0.665-0.728), and 0.601 (0.567-0.634), respectively. The ICU and overall in-hospital mortality were 6.6 and 9.7%, respectively. The APACHE II, APACHE II DP, SAPS 3, SAPS 3 DP, and SOFA scores showed a better performance than CRP/albumin ratio, CRP, albumin, or lactate to predict in-hospital mortality of surgical critically ill patients.Even though all indices were able to discriminate septic from nonseptic patients, only APACHE II, APACHE II DP, SOFA and to a lesser extent SAPS 3, SAPS 3 DP, and blood lactate levels could predict in the first 24-hour ICU admission surgical patients who have survived sepsis.

Procalcitonin kinetics after burn injury and burn surgery in septic and non-septic patients - a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Early sepsis diagnosis is crucial for the correct management of burn patients, and it clearly influences outcomes. The systemic inflammatory response triggered by burns mimics sepsis presentation and complicates early sepsis diagnosis. Biomarkers were advocated to aid the diagnosis of early sepsis. Serum procalcitonin (PCT) exhibits fair accuracy and good correlation with sepsis severity, being used in diverse clinical settings. However, few studies have evaluated perioperative changes in PCT levels in burn patients. The present study evaluated PCT kinetics during the first days after burn injury and subsequent surgical interventions to assess PCT utility in distinguishing septic from non-septic inflammatory responses.

METHODS

This study was a retrospective observational study of all burn patients admitted to the Coimbra Burns Unit (Portugal) between January 2011 and December 2014 who presented with a total burn surface area ≥ 15% and who underwent subsequent surgery. PCT kinetics were investigated a) during the first five days after burn injury and b) preoperatively during the five days after surgery in three subsets of patients, including those with no preoperative and no postoperative sepsis (NN), no preoperative but postoperative sepsis (NS), and preoperative and postoperative sepsis (SS). A total of 145 patients met the selection criteria and were included in the analysis.

RESULTS

PCT levels in the first five days after burn injury were significantly higher in patients who developed at least one sepsis episode (n = 85) compared with patients who did not develop sepsis (n = 60). PCT values > 1.00 ng/mL were clearly associated with sepsis. Study participants (n = 145) underwent a total of 283 surgical interventions. Their distribution by preoperative/postoperative sepsis status was 142 (50.2%) in NN; 62 (21.9%) in NS; and 79 (27.9%) in SS. PCT values exhibited a parallel course in the three groups that peaked on the second postoperative day and returned to preoperative levels on the third day or later. The lowest PCT values were found in NN, and the highest values were observed in SS; the NS values were intermediate.

CONCLUSIONS

PCT kinetics coupled with a clinical examination may be helpful for sepsis diagnosis during the first days after burn injury and burn surgery.

C-Reactive Protein and Procalcitonin as Predictors of Postoperative Inflammatory Complications After Pancreatic Surgery

BACKGROUND

The association between postoperative inflammatory markers and risk of complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) is controversial. We sought to assess the diagnostic value of perioperative C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) levels in the early identification of patients at risk for complications after PD.

METHODS

In 2014, 84 patients undergoing elective PD were enrolled in a prospective database. Clinicopathological characteristics, CRP and PCT, as well as short-term outcomes, such as complications and pancreatic fistula, were analyzed. Complications and pancreatic fistula were defined based on the Clavien-Dindo classification and the International Study Group on Pancreatic Fistula (ISGPF) classification, respectively. High CRP and PCT were classified using cut-off values based on ROC curve analysis.

RESULTS

The majority (73.8 %) of patients had pancreatic adenocarcinoma. CRP and PCT levels over the first 5 postoperative days (POD) were higher among patients who experienced a complication versus those who did not (p < 0.001). Postoperative CRP and PCT levels were also higher among patients who developed a grade B or C pancreatic fistula (p < 0.05). A CRP concentration >84 mg/l on POD 1 (AUC 0.77) and >127 mg/l on POD 3 (AUC 0.79) was associated with the highest risk of overall complications (OR 6.86 and 9.0, respectively; both p < 0.001). Similarly patients with PCT >0.7 mg/dl on POD 1 (AUC 0.67) were at higher risk of developing a postoperative complication (OR 3.33; p = 0.024). On POD 1, a CRP >92 mg/l (AUC 0.72) and a PCT >0.4 mg/dl (AUC 0.70) were associated with the highest risk of pancreatic fistula (OR 5.63 and 5.62, respectively; both p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

CRP and PCT concentration were associated with an increased risk of developing complications and clinical relevant pancreatic fistula after PD. Use of these biomarkers may help identify those patients at highest risk for perioperative morbidity and help guide postoperative management of patients undergoing PD.