Predicting Ecosystem Wide Impacts of Wallaby Management Using a Fuzzy Cognitive Map

Ecosystem Knowledge Should Replace Coexistence and Stability Assumptions in Ecological Network Modelling

Quantitative population modelling is an invaluable tool for identifying the cascading effects of conservation on an ecosystem. When population data from monitoring programs is not available, deterministic ecosystem models have often been calibrated using the theoretical assumption that ecosystems have a stable, coexisting equilibrium. However, a growing body of literature suggests these theoretical assumptions are inappropriate for conservation contexts. Here, we develop an alternative for data-free population modelling that relies on expert-elicited knowledge of species populations. Our new Bayesian algorithm systematically removes model parameters that lead to impossible predictions, as defined by experts, without incurring excessive computational costs. We demonstrate our framework on an ordinary differential equation model by limiting predicted population sizes and their ability to change rapidly, utilising readily available knowledge from field observations and experts rather than relying on theoretical ecosystem properties. Our results show that using only coexistence and stability requirements can lead to unrealistic population dynamics, which can be avoided by switching to expert-derived information. We demonstrate how this change can dramatically impact population predictions, expected responses to management, conservation decision-making, and long-term ecosystem behaviour. Without data, we argue that field observations and expert knowledge are more trustworthy for representing ecosystems observed in nature, improving the precision and confidence in predictions.

Evaluating unintended consequences of intentional species introductions and eradications for improved conservation management

Increasingly intensive strategies to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function are being deployed in response to global anthropogenic threats, including intentionally introducing and eradicating species via assisted migration, rewilding, biological control, invasive species eradications, and gene drives. These actions are highly contentious because of their potential for unintended consequences. We conducted a global literature review of these conservation actions to quantify how often unintended outcomes occur and to elucidate their underlying causes. To evaluate conservation outcomes, we developed a community assessment framework for systematically mapping the range of possible interaction types for 111 case studies. Applying this tool, we quantified the number of interaction types considered in each study and documented the nature and strength of intended and unintended outcomes. Intended outcomes were reported in 51% of cases, a combination of intended outcomes and unintended outcomes in 26%, and strictly unintended outcomes in 10%. Hence, unintended outcomes were reported in 36% of all cases evaluated. In evaluating overall conservations outcomes (weighing intended vs. unintended effects), some unintended effects were fairly innocuous relative to the conservation objective, whereas others resulted in serious unintended consequences in recipient communities. Studies that assessed a greater number of community interactions with the target species reported unintended outcomes more often, suggesting that unintended consequences may be underreported due to insufficient vetting. Most reported unintended outcomes arose from direct effects (68%) or simple density-mediated or indirect effects (25%) linked to the target species. Only a few documented cases arose from more complex interaction pathways (7%). Therefore, most unintended outcomes involved simple interactions that could be predicted and mitigated through more formal vetting. Our community assessment framework provides a tool for screening future conservation actions by mapping the recipient community interaction web to identify and mitigate unintended outcomes from intentional species introductions and eradications for conservation.

causalizeR: a text mining algorithm to identify causal relationships in scientific literature

Complex interactions among multiple abiotic and biotic drivers result in rapid changes in ecosystems worldwide. Predicting how specific interactions can cause ripple effects potentially resulting in abrupt shifts in ecosystems is of high relevance to policymakers, but difficult to quantify using data from singular cases. We present causalizeR (https://github.com/fjmurguzur/causalizeR), a text-processing algorithm that extracts causal relations from literature based on simple grammatical rules that can be used to synthesize evidence in unstructured texts in a structured manner. The algorithm extracts causal links using the relative position of nouns relative to the keyword of choice to extract the cause and effects of interest. The resulting database can be combined with network analysis tools to estimate the direct and indirect effects of multiple drivers at the network level, which is useful for synthesizing available knowledge and for hypothesis creation and testing. We illustrate the use of the algorithm by detecting causal relationships in scientific literature relating to the tundra ecosystem.

Managing ecosystems in a sea of uncertainty: invasive species management and assisted colonizations

Managing ecosystems in the face of complex species interactions, and the associated uncertainty, presents a considerable ecological challenge. Altering those interactions via actions such as invasive species management or conservation translocations can result in unintended consequences, supporting the need to be able to make more informed decisions in the face of this uncertainty. We demonstrate the utility of ecosystem models to reduce uncertainty and inform future ecosystem management. We use Phillip Island, Australia, as a case study to investigate the impacts of two invasive species management options and consider whether a critically endangered mammal is likely to establish a population in the presence of invasive species. Qualitative models are used to determine the effects of apex predator removal (feral cats) and invasive prey removal (rabbits, rats, and mice). We extend this approach using Ensemble Ecosystem Models to consider how suppression, rather than eradication influences the species community; and consider whether an introduction of the critically endangered eastern barred bandicoot is likely to be successful in the presence of invasive species. Our analysis revealed the potential for unintended outcomes associated with feral cat control operations, with rats and rabbits expected to increase in abundance. A strategy based on managing prey species appeared to have the most ecosystem-wide benefits, with rodent control showing more favorable responses than a rabbit control strategy. Eastern barred bandicoots were predicted to persist under all feral cat control levels (including no control). Managing ecosystems is a complex and imprecise process. However, qualitative modeling and ensemble ecosystem modeling address uncertainty and are capable of improving and optimizing management practices. Our analysis shows that the best conservation outcomes may not always be associated with the top-down control of apex predators, and land managers should think more broadly in relation to managing bottom-up processes as well. Challenges faced in continuing to conserve biodiversity mean new, bolder, conservation actions are needed. We suggest that endangered species are capable of surviving in the presence of feral cats, potentially opening the door for more conservation translocations.

Using ensemble modeling to predict the impacts of assisted migration on recipient ecosystems

Assisted migration is a controversial conservation measure that aims to protect threatened species by moving part of their population outside its natural range. Although this could save species from extinction, it also introduces a range of risks. The magnitude of the threat to recipient ecosystems has not been investigated quantitatively, despite being the most common criticism leveled at the action. We used an ensemble modeling framework to estimate the risks of assisted migration to existing species within ecosystems. With this approach, we calculated the consequences of an assisted migration project across a very large combination of translocated species and recipient ecosystems. We predicted the probability of a successful assisted migration and the number of local extinctions would result from establishment of the translocated species. Using an ensemble of 1.5×106 simulated 15-species recipient ecosystems, we estimated that translocated species will successfully establish in 83% of cases if introduced to stable, high-quality habitats. However, assisted migration projects were estimated to cause an average of 0.6 extinctions and 5% of successful translocations triggered 4 or more local extinctions. Quantifying the impacts to species within recipient ecosystems is critical to help managers weigh the benefits and negative consequences of assisted migration.

A guide to ecosystem models and their environmental applications

Applied ecology has traditionally approached management problems through a simplified, single-species lens. Repeated failures of single-species management have led us to a new paradigm - managing at the ecosystem level. Ecosystem management involves a complex array of interacting organisms, processes and scientific disciplines. Accounting for interactions, feedback loops and dependencies between ecosystem components is therefore fundamental to understanding and managing ecosystems. We provide an overview of the main types of ecosystem models and their uses, and discuss challenges related to modelling complex ecological systems. Existing modelling approaches typically attempt to do one or more of the following: describe and disentangle ecosystem components and interactions; make predictions about future ecosystem states; and inform decision making by comparing alternative strategies and identifying important uncertainties. Modelling ecosystems is challenging, particularly when balancing the desire to represent many components of an ecosystem with the limitations of available data and the modelling objective. Explicitly considering different forms of uncertainty is therefore a primary concern. We provide some recommended strategies (such as ensemble ecosystem models and multi-model approaches) to aid the explicit consideration of uncertainty while also meeting the challenges of modelling ecosystems.

Prey Responses to Exotic Predators: Effects of Old Risks and New Cues

Exotic predators can have major negative impacts on prey. Importantly, prey vary considerably in their behavioral responses to exotic predators. Factors proposed to explain variation in prey response to exotic predators include the similarity of new predators to familiar, native predators, the prevalence and diversity of predators in a prey's past, and variation in a prey's innate ability to discriminate between predators and safety. While these factors have been put forth verbally in the literature, no theory exists that combines these hypotheses in a common conceptual framework using a unified behavioral model. Here, we formalize existing verbal arguments by modeling variation in prey responses to new predators in a state-dependent detection theory framework. We find that while some conventional wisdom is upheld, novel predictions emerge. As expected, prey respond poorly to exotic predators that do not closely resemble familiar predators. Furthermore, a history with more abundant or diverse native predators can lessen effects of some exotic predators on prey; however, under some conditions, the opposite prediction emerges. Also, prey that evolved in situations where they easily discriminate between safe and dangerous situations can be more susceptible to novel predators.

A novel approach to assessing the ecosystem-wide impacts of reintroductions

Reintroducing a species to an ecosystem can have significant impacts on the recipient ecological community. Although reintroductions can have striking and positive outcomes, they also carry risks; many well-intentioned conservation actions have had surprising and unsatisfactory outcomes. A range of network-based mathematical methods has been developed to make quantitative predictions of how communities will respond to management interventions. These methods are based on the limited knowledge of which species interact with each other and in what way. However, expert knowledge isn't perfect and can only take models so far. Fortunately, other types of data, such as abundance time series, is often available, but, to date, no quantitative method exists to integrate these various data types into these models, allowing more precise ecosystem-wide predictions. In this paper, we develop mathematical methods that combine time-series data of multiple species with knowledge of species interactions and we apply it to proposed reintroductions at Booderee National Park in Australia. There have been large fluctuations in species abundances at Booderee National Park in recent history, following intense feral fox (Vulpes vulpes) control, including the local extinction of the greater glider (Petauroides volans). These fluctuations can provide information about the system isn't readily obtained from a stable system, and we use them to inform models that we then use to predict potential outcomes of eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) and long-nosed potoroo (Potorous tridactylus) reintroductions. One of the key species of conservation concern in the park is the Eastern Bristlebird (Dasyornis brachypterus), and we find that long-nosed potoroo introduction would have very little impact on the Eastern Bristlebird population, while the eastern quoll introduction increased the likelihood of Eastern Bristlebird decline, although that depends on the strength and form of any possible interaction.

Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction

Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication.

Follow your nose: leaf odour as an important foraging cue for mammalian herbivores

Studies of odour-driven foraging by mammals focus on attractant cues emitted by flowers, fruits, and fungi. Yet, the leaves of many plant species worldwide produce odour, which could act as a cue for foraging mammalian herbivores. Leaf odour may thus improve foraging efficiency for such herbivores in many ecosystems by reducing search time, particularly but not only, for plants that are visually obscured. We tested the use of leaf odour by a free-ranging mammalian browser, the swamp wallaby (Wallabia bicolor) to find and browse palatable tree seedlings (Eucalyptus pilularis). Wallabies visited patches non-randomly with respect to the presence of seedlings. In the absence of visual plant cues, they used leaf odour (cut seedlings in vials) to find patches earlier, and visited and investigated them more often than control patches (empty vials), supporting the hypothesis that wallabies used seedling odour to enhance search efficiency. In contrast, the grey kangaroo (Macropus giganteus), a grazer, showed no response to seedling odour. When the availability of seedling visual and olfactory cues was manipulated, wallabies browsed seedlings equally quickly in all treatments: upright (normal cues), pinned to the ground (reduced visual cues), and upright plus pinned seedlings (double olfactory cues). Odour cues play a critical role in food-finding by swamp wallabies, and these animals are finely tuned to detecting these cues with their threshold for detection reached by odours from only a single plant. The global significance of leaf odour in foraging by mammalian herbivores consuming conifers, eucalypts, and other odour-rich species requires greater attention.

Temporal trends in mammal responses to fire reveals the complex effects of fire regime attributes

Fire is a major ecological process in many ecosystems worldwide. We sought to identify which attributes of fire regimes affect temporal change in the presence and abundance of Australian native mammals. Our detailed study was underpinned by time series data on 11 mammal species at 97 long-term sites in southeastern Australia between 2003 and 2013. We explored how temporal aspects of fire regimes influenced the presence and conditional abundance of species. The key fire regime components examined were: (1) severity of a major fire in 2003, (2) interval between the last major fire (2003) and the fire prior to that, and (3) number of past fires. Our long-term data set enabled quantification of the interactions between survey year and each fire regime variable: an ecological relationship missing from temporally restricted studies. We found no evidence of any appreciable departures from the assumption of independence of the sites. Multiple aspects of fire regimes influenced temporal variation in the presence and abundance of mammals. The best models indicated that six of the 11 species responded to two or more fire regime variables, with two species influenced by all three fire regime attributes. Almost all species responded to time since fire, either as an interaction with survey year or as a main effect. Fire severity or its interaction with survey year was important for most terrestrial rodents. The number of fires at a site was significant for terrestrial rodents and several other species. Our findings contain evidence of the effects on native mammals of heterogeneity in fire regimes. Temporal response patterns of mammal species were influenced by multiple fire regime attributes, often in conjunction with survey year. This underscores the critical importance of long-term studies of biota that are coupled with data sets characterized by carefully documented fire history, severity, and frequency. Long-term studies are essential to predict animal responses to fires and guide management of when and where (prescribed) fire or, conversely, long-unburned vegetation is needed. The complexity of observed responses highlights the need for large reserves in which patterns of heterogeneity in fire regimes can be sustained in space and over time.

A long-term experimental case study of the ecological effectiveness and cost effectiveness of invasive plant management in achieving conservation goals: bitou bush control in booderee national park in eastern australia

Invasive plant management is often justified in terms of conservation goals, yet progress is rarely assessed against these broader goals, instead focussing on short-term reductions of the invader as a measure of success. Key questions commonly remain unanswered including whether invader removal reverses invader impacts and whether management itself has negative ecosystem impacts. We addressed these knowledge gaps using a seven year experimental investigation of Bitou Bush, Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. rotundata. Our case study took advantage of the realities of applied management interventions for Bitou Bush to assess whether it is a driver or passenger of environmental change, and quantified conservation benefits relative to management costs of different treatment regimes. Among treatments examined, spraying with herbicide followed by burning and subsequent re-spraying (spray-fire-spray) proved the most effective for reducing the number of individuals and cover of Bitou Bush. Other treatment regimes (e.g. fire followed by spraying, or two fires in succession) were less effective or even exacerbated Bitou Bush invasion. The spray-fire-spray regime did not increase susceptibility of treated areas to re-invasion by Bitou Bush or other exotic species. This regime significantly reduced plant species richness and cover, but these effects were short-lived. The spray-fire-spray regime was the most cost-effective approach to controlling a highly invasive species and facilitating restoration of native plant species richness to levels characteristic of uninvaded sites. We provide a decision tree to guide management, where recommended actions depend on the outcome of post-treatment monitoring and performance against objectives. Critical to success is avoiding partial treatments and treatment sequences that may exacerbate invasive species impacts. We also show the value of taking advantage of unplanned events, such as wildfires, to achieve management objectives at reduced cost.

Interactive effects of fire and large herbivores on web-building spiders

Altered disturbance regimes are a major driver of biodiversity loss worldwide. Maintaining or re-creating natural disturbance regimes is therefore the focus of many conservation programmes. A key challenge, however, is to understand how co-occurring disturbances interact to affect biodiversity. We experimentally tested for the interactive effects of prescribed fire and large macropod herbivores on the web-building spider assemblage of a eucalypt forest understorey and investigated the role of vegetation in mediating these effects using path analysis. Fire had strong negative effects on the density of web-building spiders, which were partly mediated by effects on vegetation structure, while negative effects of large herbivores on web density were not related to changes in vegetation. Fire amplified the effects of large herbivores on spiders, both via vegetation-mediated pathways and by increasing herbivore activity. The importance of vegetation-mediated pathways and fire-herbivore interactions differed for web density and richness and also differed between web types. Our results demonstrate that for some groups of web-building spiders, the effects of co-occurring disturbance drivers may be mostly additive, whereas for other groups, interactions between drivers can amplify disturbance effects. In our study system, the use of prescribed fire in the presence of high densities of herbivores could lead to reduced densities and altered composition of web-building spiders, with potential cascading effects through the arthropod food web. Our study highlights the importance of considering both the independent and interactive effects of disturbances, as well as the mechanisms driving their effects, in the management of disturbance regimes.

Lethal control of an apex predator has unintended cascading effects on forest mammal assemblages

Disruption to species-interaction networks caused by irruptions of herbivores and mesopredators following extirpation of apex predators is a global driver of ecosystem reorganization and biodiversity loss. Most studies of apex predators' ecological roles focus on effects arising from their interactions with herbivores or mesopredators in isolation, but rarely consider how the effects of herbivores and mesopredators interact. Here, we provide evidence that multiple cascade pathways induced by lethal control of an apex predator, the dingo, drive unintended shifts in forest ecosystem structure. We compared mammal assemblages and understorey structure at seven sites in southern Australia. Each site comprised an area where dingoes were poisoned and an area without control. The effects of dingo control on mammals scaled with body size. Activity of herbivorous macropods, arboreal mammals and a mesopredator, the red fox, were greater, but understorey vegetation sparser and abundances of small mammals lower, where dingoes were controlled. Structural equation modelling suggested that both predation by foxes and depletion of understorey vegetation by macropods were related to small mammal decline at poisoned sites. Our study suggests that apex predators' suppressive effects on herbivores and mesopredators occur simultaneously and should be considered in tandem in order to appreciate the extent of apex predators' indirect effects.

Unintended consequences of invasive predator control in an Australian forest: overabundant wallabies and vegetation change

Over-abundance of native herbivores is a problem in many forests worldwide. The abundance of native macropod wallabies is extremely high at Booderee National Park (BNP) in south-eastern Australia. This has occurred because of the reduction of exotic predators through an intensive baiting program, coupled with the absence of other predators. The high density of wallabies at BNP may be inhibiting the recruitment of many plant species following fire-induced recruitment events. We experimentally examined the post-fire response of a range of plant species to browsing by wallabies in a forest heavily infested with the invasive species, bitou bush Chrysanthemoides monilifera. We recorded the abundance and size of a range of plant species in 18 unfenced (browsed) and 16 fenced (unbrowsed) plots. We found the abundance and size of bitou bush was suppressed in browsed plots compared to unbrowsed plots. Regenerating seedlings of the canopy or middle storey tree species Eucalyptus pilularis, Acacia implexa, Allocasuarina littoralis, Breynia oblongifolia and Banksia integrifolia were either smaller or fewer in number in grazed plots than treatment plots as were the vines Kennedia rubicunda, Glycine tabacina and Glycine clandestina. In contrast, the understorey fern, Pteridium esculentum increased in abundance in the browsed plots relative to unbrowsed plots probably because of reduced competition with more palatable angiosperms. Twelve months after plots were installed the community structure of the browsed and unbrowsed plots was significantly different (P = 0.023, Global R = 0.091). The relative abundance of C. monilifera and P. esculentum contributed most to the differences. We discuss the possible development of a low diversity bracken fern parkland in Booderee National Park through a trophic cascade, similar to that caused by overabundant deer in the northern hemisphere. We also discuss its implications for broad scale fox control in southern Australian forests.