Synthesis in land change science: methodological patterns, challenges, and guidelines

Participatory and Spatially Explicit Assessment to Envision the Future of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Scenarios on Selected Ecosystem Services in Southwestern Ghana

Settlement expansion and commercial agriculture affect landscape sustainability and ecosystem service provision. Integrated landscape approaches are promoted to negotiate trade-offs between competing land uses and their reconciliation. Incorporating local perceptions of landscape dynamics as basis for such negotiations is particularly relevant for sub-Saharan Africa, where most people depend on natural ecosystems for livelihoods and well-being. This study applied participatory scenario building and spatially explicit simulation to unravel perceptions of the potential impact of rubber and settlement expansion on the provision of selected ecosystem services in southwestern Ghana under a business-as-usual scenario. We collected data in workshops and expert surveys on locally relevant ecosystem services, their indicator values, and the probable land-use transitions. The data was translated into an assessment matrix and integrated into a spatially explicit modeling platform, allowing visualization and comparison of the impact on ecosystem service provision of land-use scenarios under rubber plantation and settlement expansion. The results show the capacity of current (2020) and future land-use patterns to provide locally relevant ecosystem services, indicating a decline in capacity of ecosystem service provisioning in the future compared to the 2020 land-use patterns, a threat to the benefits humans derive from ecosystems. This highlights urgent need for policies and measures to control the drivers of land-use/land-cover change. Furthermore, the results emphasize the importance of diversifying land-use/land-cover types for sustainable landscape development. The paper contributes new insights into how spatially explicit and semi-quantitative methods can make stakeholder perceptions of landscape dynamics explicit as a basis for implementing integrated landscape approaches.

Impacts of watershed management on land use/cover changes and landscape greenness in Yezat Watershed, North West, Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, watershed management interventions have been implemented since the 1980s to curve land degradation and improve the agricultural productivity of smallholder farmers. However, little effort has been made to investigate the impacts of watershed management on land use/cover changes and landscape greenness. Thus, this study was conducted to assess the long-term impacts of watershed management on land use/cover changes and landscape greenness in the Yezat watershed. Landsat images for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2021 were employed and analyzed to produce maps of the respective years using GIS and remote sensing techniques. Data from satellite images, coupled with field observation and the socio-economic survey, revealed an effective approach for analyzing the extent, rate, and spatial patterns of land use/cover changes. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was also employed to detect vegetation greenness. The results of the study show that between 1990 and 2021, the built-up area, plantation, natural forest, shrubland, and grasslands were increased by + 254 ha, + 712.3 ha, 196.3 ha, + 1070.8, and + 425.3 ha respectively due to watershed management interventions. Conversely, cultivated land was decreased with a rate of - 2658.7 ha_, in the study area. However, the reverse is true between 1990 and 2000 due to large-scale land degradation. Besides, the result of the study also shows that a low landscape greenness value (- 0.11) was observed between 1990 and 2000, and a high landscape greenness value (+ 0.2) was observed between 1990 and 2021. The observed change in landscape greenness in the watershed was due to the change in shrubland (+ 1070.8 ha), grassland (+ 425.3 ha), plantation (+ 712.3 ha), and forestland (+ 196.3 ha) covers between 1990 and 2021 years. Such observed changes in land use land covers, landscape greenness, and cultivated land in the study watershed have important implications for the improvement of soil moisture, soil fertility, biodiversity, groundwater recharge, carbon sequestration, soil erosion land, crop yield, and ecosystem services.

Landscape-variability of the carbon balance across managed boreal forests

Boreal forests are important global carbon (C) sinks and, therefore, considered as a key element in climate change mitigation policies. However, their actual C sink strength is uncertain and under debate, particularly for the actively managed forests in the boreal regions of Fennoscandia. In this study, we use an extensive set of biometric- and chamber-based C flux data collected in 50 forest stands (ranging from 5 to 211 years) over 3 years (2016-2018) with the aim to explore the variations of the annual net ecosystem production (NEP; i.e., the ecosystem C balance) across a 68 km2 managed boreal forest landscape in northern Sweden. Our results demonstrate that net primary production rather than heterotrophic respiration regulated the spatio-temporal variations of NEP across the heterogeneous mosaic of the managed boreal forest landscape. We further find divergent successional patterns of NEP in our managed forests relative to naturally regenerating boreal forests, including (i) a fast recovery of the C sink function within the first decade after harvest due to the rapid establishment of a productive understory layer and (ii) a sustained C sink in old stands (131-211 years). We estimate that the rotation period for optimum C sequestration extends to 138 years, which over multiple rotations results in a long-term C sequestration rate of 86.5 t C ha-1 per rotation. Our study highlights the potential of forest management to maximize C sequestration of boreal forest landscapes and associate climate change mitigation effects by developing strategies that optimize tree biomass production rather than heterotrophic soil C emissions.

Real Estate Developers as Agents in the Simulation of Urban Sprawl

Urban expansion is one of the processes that generates the greatest impact on the distribution of land uses, leading to important territorial changes. Its evolution has become a highly relevant object of analysis and studies on the subject have gradually advanced from a focus on patterns of land use and cover, towards a more detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions between all the actors involved in these processes. Among the agents usually included as an active and decisive part of these dynamics are the real estate developers. This study aims to analyze these agents, identify their behavioral patterns, and categorize and better understand them. For this, a qualitative approach was employed, in which a structured questionnaire elaborated from the point of view of an expert was administrated to the real estate developers in the area of the Henares urban–industrial corridor, between Madrid and Guadalajara, where important processes of urban expansion have taken place. The information obtained from an interview with an expert and the questionnaire revealed important information about the work of real estate developers and will be of great help in the elaboration of an Agent-Based Model to simulate and analyze urban growth. This process is crucial to determine in a more empirical way the different decision rules that are necessary to develop this type of model.

Land use and land cover changes and their impacts on surface-atmosphere interactions in Brazil: A systematic review

Major land use and land cover changes (LULCC) have taken place in Brazil, including large scale conversion of forest to agriculture. LULCC alters surface-atmosphere interactions, changing the timing and magnitude of energy fluxes, impacting the partitioning of available energy, and therefore the climate and water balance. The objective of this work was to provide a detailed analysis of how LULCC has affected surface-atmosphere interactions over the Brazilian territory, particularly focusing on impacts on precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), and atmospheric humidity (h). Our systematic review yielded 61 studies, with the Amazon being the most studied biome followed by the Cerrado. P was the most analyzed variable, followed by ET. Few papers analyzed LULCC impacts on h. For the Amazon biome, decreasing dry season P and in annual ET were reported. In the Cerrado biome, decreasing P in the wet and dry seasons and decreasing dry season ET were the most common result. For the Atlantic Forest biome, increasing annual P and increasing wet season ET, likely due to reforestation, were reported. Few studies documented LULCC impacts on surface-atmosphere interactions over the Brazilian biomes Caatinga, Pantanal and Pampa. Therefore, new research is needed to assess impacts of LULCC on these biomes, including assessments of atmospheric moisture recycling, and interactions of LULCC with global climate and climate extremes including droughts.

Conserving Working Rangelands: A Social–Ecological Case Study from Northeastern Colorado

Land changes in rangeland systems cascade through interconnected social and ecological spheres, affecting both humans and the environment. This study applied a multi-method approach to examine the causes and consequences of change in two rangeland communities in northeastern (NE) Colorado. First, this study used a Random Forest supervised classifier to analyze 36 years of land-cover data and create a land-cover/use change classification model. Second, the research team analyzed transcripts of interviews with 32 ranchers, examining how ranchers’ adaptive strategies influence land-cover change trends. Lastly, the analysis integrated the quantitative and qualitative data, constructing a social–ecological rangeland change conceptual model. This study found that the cultivated area decreased in both study sites from 1984–2019, with 16.0% and 18.7% of each site transitioning out of the cultivated area. Moreover, 10.3% and 18.4% of each site, respectively, transitioned to herbaceous/grassland cover from 1984–2019. The qualitative analysis identified the role of conservation policies, such as open space programs, on land change. Also, despite the relatively small area that transitioned to developed cover—1.83% and 0.183% of each site—participants emphasized that the associated demographic and cultural shifts drive land-use change. This study highlights that while rangelands are undergoing social–ecological change, land-use decisions and land conservation programs can help mitigate the global trend of declining rangeland and grassland cover.

Agroecological Transitions: A Systematic Review of Research Approaches and Prospects for Participatory Action Methods

There have been many calls for an agroecological transition to respond to food shocks and crises stemming from conventional food systems. Participatory action research and transformative epistemologies, where communities are research actors rather than objects, have been proposed as a way to enhance this transition. However, despite numerous case studies, there is presently no overview of how participatory approaches contribute to agroecological transitions. The present article therefore aims to understand the effect of applying participatory action research (PAR) in agroecology. We undertook a systematic review of articles reporting methods and results from case studies in agroecological research. On the one hand, our systematic review of 347 articles shows that the agroecological research scope is broad, with all three types—as science, a set of practices and social movement—well-represented in the corpus. However, we can see a clear focus on agroecology “as a set of practices” as the primary type of use of the concept. On the other hand, we found a few case studies (23) with a participatory approach while most studies used extractive research methods. These studies show that understanding the drivers and obstacles for achieving an agroecological transition requires long-term research and trust between researchers and farmers. Such transformative epistemologies open doors to new questions on designing long-term PAR research in agroecology when confronted with a short-term project-based society.

Landscapes on the Move: Land-Use Change History in a Mexican Agroforest Frontier

An unprecedented magnitude of land-use/land-cover changes have led to a rapid conversion of tropical forested landscapes to different land-uses. This comparative study evaluates and reconstructs the recent history (1976–2019) of land-use change and the associated land-use types that have emerged over time in two neighboring rural villages in Southern Mexico. Qualitative ethnographic and oral histories research and quantitative land-use change analysis using remote sensing were used. Findings indicate that several interacting historical social-ecological drivers (e.g., colonization program, soil quality, land conflicts with indigenous people, land-tenure, availability of surrounding land where to expand, Guatemala’s civil war, several agricultural development and conservation programs, regional wildfire, Zapatista uprising, and highway construction) have influenced each village’s own unique land-use change history and landscape composition: the smaller village is characterized by a dominating pasture landscape with some scattered agricultural and forest areas, while the larger village has large conserved forest areas intermixed with pastures, agriculture, oil palm and rubber plantations. The differential histories of each village have also had livelihood diversification implications. It is suggested that landscape history research in tropical agroforest frontiers is necessary because it can inform land-use policies and forest conservation strategies that are compatible with local livelihoods and conservation goals.

Prediction of Urban Area Expansion with Implementation of MLC, SAM and SVMs’ Classifiers Incorporating Artificial Neural Network Using Landsat Data

A reliable land cover (LC) map is essential for planners, as missing proper land cover maps may deviate a project. This study is focusing on land cover classification and prediction using three well known classifiers and remote sensing data. Maximum Likelihood classifier (MLC), Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM), and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) algorithms are used as the representatives for parametric, non-parametric and subpixel capable methods for change detection and change prediction of Urmia City (Iran) and its suburbs. Landsat images of 2000, 2010, and 2020 have been used to provide land cover information. The results demonstrated 0.93–0.94 overall accuracies for MLC and SVMs’ algorithms, but it was around 0.79 for the SAM algorithm. The MLC performed slightly better than SVMs’ classifier. Cellular Automata Artificial neural network method was used to predict land cover changes. Overall accuracy of MLC was higher than others at about 0.94 accuracy, although, SVMs were slightly more accurate for large area segments. Land cover maps were predicted for 2030, which demonstrate the city’s expansion from 5500 ha in 2000 to more than 9000 ha in 2030.

Integrating stakeholders' perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania

Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders' perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders' perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth and legislation governing land access and natural resource management. Among other socio-environmental-political LULCC drivers, the stakeholders envisioned that from 2018 to 2030 LULCC will largely be influenced by land health, natural and economic capital, and political will in implementing land use plans and policies. The projected scenarios suggest that by 2030 agricultural land will have expanded by 8-20% under different scenarios and herbaceous vegetation and forest land cover will be reduced by 2.5-5% and 10-19% respectively. Stakeholder discussions further identified desirable futures in 2030 as those with improved infrastructure, restored degraded landscapes, effective wildlife conservation, and better farming techniques. The undesirable futures in 2030 were those characterized by land degradation, poverty, and cultural loss. Insights from our work identify the implications of future LULCC scenarios on wildlife and cultural conservation and in meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets by 2030. The Kesho approach capitalizes on knowledge exchanges among diverse stakeholders, and in the process promotes social learning, provides a sense of ownership of outputs generated, democratizes scientific understanding, and improves the quality and relevance of the outputs.

GIS Spatial Analysis Modeling for Land Use Change. A Bibliometric Analysis of the Intellectual Base and Trends

The paper aimed to express the cognitive and intellectual structure of research executed in the field of GIS-based land use change modeling. An exploration of the Web of Science database showed that research in GIS spatial analysis modeling for land use change began in the early 1990s and has continued since then, with a substantial growth in the 21st century. By science mapping methods, particularly co-coupling, co-citation, and citation, as well as bibliometric measures, like impact indices, this study distinguishes the most eminent authors, institutions, countries, and journals in GIS-based land use change modeling. The results showed that GIS-based analysis of land use change modeling is a multi- and interdisciplinary research topic, as reflected in the diversity of WoS research categories, the most productive journals, and the topics analyzed. The highest impact on the world sciences in the field have can be attributed to European Universities, particularly from The Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, and Great Britain. However, China and the United States published the highest number of research papers.

Spatial Patterns of Vineyard Abandonment and Related Land Use Transitions in Beaujolais (France): A Multiscale Approach

While the resilience of French vineyards is currently threatened, this paper focuses on the Beaujolais terroir, where the disappearance of vineyards has been qualitatively observed by local stakeholders. A targeted survey was led at three complementary scales. First, we provide an overview of the evolution of agricultural landscapes and practices for the whole Beaujolais area since 1990 from national statistical databases. It shows that the vineyard extent reached a maximum during the 1990s and that significant bifurcation occurred in 2000. Second, we document land use evolution in relation to vineyard abandonment at a more local scale. Three case studies (lower Ardières, Marverand, Merloux) exemplify the main local settings, and the land uses are described over time from an analysis that employed multitemporal photo interpretation. The results quantified the decrease in the vineyard surface extent since 1999: approximately 30% was lost in regular terroirs and 5% was lost in high added-value terroirs. Third, at a fine scale, we explained the precise location of the abandoned parcels regarding the site characteristics (e.g., incoming solar radiation, slope gradient, terroir quality). The results showed differences in evolution patterns between southern and northern Beaujolais. In northern Beaujolais, winegrowers tended to abandon vine parcels that were considered of lower quality; while, in southern Beaujolais, the winegrowers tended to abandon vine parcels in relation to the difficulty of maintenance (remote and steep parcels were preferentially abandoned) or in relation to suburbanization (parcels close to built-up areas were preferentially abandoned).

Linkages between land cover change, lake shrinkage, and sublacustrine influence determined from remote sensing of select Rift Valley Lakes in Kenya

The Great Rift Valley system is home to many volcanic and tectonic lakes including some of the world's oldest and deepest lakes. These lakes host a rich heritage of biodiversity that is endangered by recent drastic hydrologic changes due to multiple natural and anthropogenic stressors in the catchment areas of some of the lakes. This study utilized Landsat TM, ETM+, and OLI data to conduct a systematic investigation of the relationship between hydrological dynamics in the basins of four Rift Valley lakes (Nakuru, Baringo, Bogoria, and Elementaita) and recent land cover and land-use change. The Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) proved to be more accurate and robust for delineating water surface areas when compared to the output of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and classification algorithms. NDVI was successful when delineating water surface at Lake Baringo but not in Lakes Bogoria, Nakuru, and Elementaita, whose surfaces were dominated by algae. All the lakes expanded substantially after 2010 submerging surrounding areas leading to disruption of livelihoods, property damage, and displacement of thousands of people. The recent drastic hydrologic changes have multiple causations including land cover and land use change, increase in rainfall, and possible change in geogenic water input due to tectonic activity. The rapid rise in water levels appears to have altered the biogeochemical balance of the hypersaline lakes with severe ramifications on the rich biodiversity that is supported by the lakes.

Unveiling Contrasting Preferred Trajectories of Local Development in Southeast Portugal

Mediterranean land systems are amongst the most susceptible to global change, in part due to the region’s vulnerability to climate change and misfit within a high production demanding political and societal setting. The impact of global drivers at a local scale (i.e., the possible trajectories of change of a territory) are context-dependent, and to some extent dependent on how local actors perceive them and act upon them. In this study, we focused on southeast Portugal and conducted 22 interviews and 1 collective workshop to understand how different actors across the territory anticipate the development of the region and its land systems. From our results, we get a picture of a depopulated territory, constrained by ill-adjusted policies to its harsh conditions, including little water availability and continuous depopulation. We found contrasting preferred trajectories of development for the territory. On one hand, there is a preference for prioritizing traditional land systems, usually rainfed and multifunctional. Contrasting, a need for water reservoirs that would increase water availability and allow for profitable agricultural activities and thus fixate population is recognized. The different perspectives fit with a wider debate on the role of agriculture, intensification and ecosystem services under an increasingly arid Mediterranean. The next challenge is to integrate technical expertise and knowledge with local needs and initiatives, to fit in a broader scale strategic plan. We identify a lack of technical support regarding soil health. Poor soil, from the perspective of several stakeholders, is a characteristic of the region. Knowledge dissemination is urgent so that farmers can proactively improve soil health and benefit from its capacity to increase production and retain water. We urge a higher effort from the scientific community focusing on marginal areas, supporting knowledge dissemination and analysis of the impacts of different trajectories of development.

A New Integrative Theory of Brain-Body-Ecosystem Medicine: From the Hippocratic Holistic View of Medicine to Our Modern Society

Humans are increasingly aware that their fate will depend on the wisdom they apply in interacting with the ecosystem. Its health is defined as the condition in which the ecosystem can deliver and continuously renew its fundamental services. A healthy ecosystem allows optimal interactions between humans and the other biotic/abiotic components, and only in a healthy ecosystem can humans survive and efficiently reproduce. Thus, both the human and ecosystem health should be considered together in view of their interdependence. The present article suggests that this relationship could be considered starting from the Hippocrates (460 BC-370 BC) work "On Airs, Waters, and Places" to derive useful medical and philosophical implications for medicine which is indeed a topic that involves scientific as well as philosophical concepts that implicate a background broader than the human body. The brain-body-ecosystem medicine is proposed as a new more complete approach to safeguarding human health. Epidemiological data demonstrate that exploitation of the environment resulting in ecosystem damage affects human health and in several instances these diseases can be detected by modifications in the heart-brain interactions that can be diagnosed through the analysis of changes in heart rate variability.

Linking Biophysical and Economic Assessments of Ecosystem Services for a Social–Ecological Approach to Conservation Planning: Application in a Biosphere Reserve (Biscay, Spain)

The search for a balance between nature conservation and sustainable development remains a scientific and spatial planning challenge. In social-ecological systems based on traditional rural activities and associated with protected areas, this balance is particularly complex. Quantifying the economic impact of land use changes on ecosystem services can be useful to advise policy makers and improving social-ecological sustainability. In this study, we evaluated the land use changes in a time series and estimated the monetary value of the ecosystem services of the Urdaibai Biosphere Reserve (Biscay, Spain). In addition, we linked the monetary and biophysical values of land uses in each zoning units of the reserve, in order to identify the spatial adjustment between both assessments. Results showed that land use changes have clearly homogenized the landscape without substantially affecting its economic value. The methodological approach allowed detection that the reserve zoning was performed based more on its biophysical values than on economic ones. Thus, evident divergences between the biophysical and economic assessments were found. The core area was the one that had the highest coincidences (medium values) between both ecosystem services assessments, which highlights its importance not only in biophysical terms, is also economical. The procedure followed proved to be a useful tool to social-ecological planning and design of specific conservation strategies for the sustainable development of the area.

Influence of Urbanization Processes on the Dynamics and Scale of Spatial Transformations in the Mazowiecki Landscape Park

This paper explores how urbanization processes, since the 1950s, affected forested areas in the Mazowiecki Landscape Park and determines if these processes resulted in a significant reduction of forest. Spatial analyses, which were used to generate very detailed data on the area of forests, agricultural land, and development areas, were carried out, and the spatial directions of the changes were determined. The results indicate that, in comparison to the 1950s, in the 1990s, the forest area did not decrease, but, in fact, increased, despite a significant increase in the development area, both in the present area of the park and in its buffer zone. This was due to the fact that new buildings were constructed in mainly agricultural areas. At the same time, intensive afforestation of weak soils, mainly inland dunes, was carried out in this area. Comparing the current period to the 1990s, further dynamic growth of the development area can be observed, especially in the park’s protective zone, with a simultaneous decrease in the forest area and agricultural land.

Adaptations in irrigated agriculture in the Mediterranean region: an overview and spatial analysis of implemented strategies

In order to meet future food demand while sustainably managing available land and water resources, irrigated agriculture in semi-arid regions needs to adapt as a response to climate and socio-economic change. In this study, we focus on the Mediterranean region, a dynamic region, which is highly dependent on irrigated agriculture. We provide insight on adaptation strategies implemented on farm level, by doing a systematic review of studies in the region. Our analysis reports 286 implemented adaptations, on 124 different locations throughout the Mediterranean. Additionally, 142 drivers and 324 effects of adaptations were noted. We identified 31 adaptation strategies in 5 main categories: (1) water management, (2) sustainable resource management, (3) technological developments, (4) farm production practices, and (5) farm management. Strategies in the categories water management and farm production practices are most often implemented by farmers in the region. The main driver in the area is water scarcity and adaptations often affected water use and resources in addition to farm practices. Subsequently, we studied the spatial context of adaptations by analyzing the location factors of the five main strategies, using Geographic Information Systems and maximum entropy modeling. Our results show that farmers are more likely to adapt in less rural areas with lower poverty values and better market access, and in areas with higher temperatures and less rainfall. This demonstrates that both biophysical and socio-economic factors determine the context in which adaptations are implemented and that considerable spatial variability in the area exists.

Methods to Assess the Impacts and Indirect Land Use Change Caused by Telecoupled Agricultural Supply Chains: A Review

The increasing international trade of agricultural products has contributed to a larger diversity of food at low prices and represents an important economic value. However, such trade can also cause social, environmental and economic impacts beyond the limits of the countries directly involved in the exchange. Agricultural systems are telecoupled because the impacts caused by trade can generate important feedback loops, spillovers, rebound effects, time lags and non-linearities across multiple geographical and temporal scales that make these impacts more difficult to identify and mitigate. We make a comparative review of current impact assessment methods to analyze their suitability to assess the impacts of telecoupled agricultural supply chains. Given the large impacts caused by agricultural production on land systems, we focus on the capacity of methods to account for and spatially allocate direct and indirect land use change. Our analysis identifies trade-offs between methods with respect to the elements of the telecoupled system they address. Hybrid methods are a promising field to navigate these trade-offs. Knowledge gaps in assessing indirect land use change should be overcome in order to improve the accuracy of assessments.

Responding to Climate Change in Tropical Countries Emerging from Armed Conflicts: Harnessing Climate Finance, Peacebuilding, and Sustainable Food

Linking climate action with sustainable development goals (SDGs) might incentivize social and political support to forest conservation. However, further examination of the conceptual entry points for linking efforts for reducing forest-based emissions with those for delivering SDGs is required. This review paper aims to contribute to fulfilling this research need. It provides insights into the links between conserving forests for climate change mitigation and peacebuilding. Specifically, the paper examines opportunities to harness climate finance for conserving forests and achieving long-lasting peace and sustainable food. It does so via a literature review and the examination of the Orinoquia region of Colombia. The findings from the literature review suggest that harnessing climate finance for conserving forests and peacebuilding is, in theory, viable if the activities are designed in accordance with social, institutional, and economic factors. Meanwhile, the Orinoquia region provides evidence that these two seemingly intractable problems are proposed to be solved together. At a time when efforts for reducing forest-based emissions are being designed and targeted at (post-) conflict areas in Colombia and elsewhere, the paper’s findings might demonstrate the compatibility of programs aimed at reducing forest-based emissions with efforts relating to peacebuilding and sustainable food to both environmental and non-environmental government agencies.

Meta-studies in land use science: Current coverage and prospects

Land use science has traditionally used case-study approaches for in-depth investigation of land use change processes and impacts. Meta-studies synthesize findings across case-study evidence to identify general patterns. In this paper, we provide a review of meta-studies in land use science. Various meta-studies have been conducted, which synthesize deforestation and agricultural land use change processes, while other important changes, such as urbanization, wetland conversion, and grassland dynamics have hardly been addressed. Meta-studies of land use change impacts focus mostly on biodiversity and biogeochemical cycles, while meta-studies of socioeconomic consequences are rare. Land use change processes and land use change impacts are generally addressed in isolation, while only few studies considered trajectories of drivers through changes to their impacts and their potential feedbacks. We provide a conceptual framework for linking meta-studies of land use change processes and impacts for the analysis of coupled human-environmental systems. Moreover, we provide suggestions for combining meta-studies of different land use change processes to develop a more integrated theory of land use change, and for combining meta-studies of land use change impacts to identify tradeoffs between different impacts. Land use science can benefit from an improved conceptualization of land use change processes and their impacts, and from new methods that combine meta-study findings to advance our understanding of human-environmental systems.

Towards a Spatial Understanding of Trade-Offs in Sustainable Development: A Meso-Scale Analysis of the Nexus between Land Use, Poverty, and Environment in the Lao PDR

In land systems, equitably managing trade-offs between planetary boundaries and human development needs represents a grand challenge in sustainability oriented initiatives. Informing such initiatives requires knowledge about the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment. This paper presents results from Lao PDR, where we combined nationwide spatial data on land use types and the environmental state of landscapes with village-level poverty indicators. Our analysis reveals two general but contrasting trends. First, landscapes with paddy or permanent agriculture allow a greater number of people to live in less poverty but come at the price of a decrease in natural vegetation cover. Second, people practising extensive swidden agriculture and living in intact environments are often better off than people in degraded paddy or permanent agriculture. As poverty rates within different landscape types vary more than between landscape types, we cannot stipulate a land use–poverty–environment nexus. However, the distinct spatial patterns or configurations of these rates point to other important factors at play. Drawing on ethnicity as a proximate factor for endogenous development potentials and accessibility as a proximate factor for external influences, we further explore these linkages. Ethnicity is strongly related to poverty in all land use types almost independently of accessibility, implying that social distance outweighs geographic or physical distance. In turn, accessibility, almost a precondition for poverty alleviation, is mainly beneficial to ethnic majority groups and people living in paddy or permanent agriculture. These groups are able to translate improved accessibility into poverty alleviation. Our results show that the concurrence of external influences with local—highly contextual—development potentials is key to shaping outcomes of the land use–poverty–environment nexus. By addressing such leverage points, these findings help guide more effective development interventions. At the same time, they point to the need in land change science to better integrate the understanding of place-based land indicators with process-based drivers of land use change.