Warming effects in the western Antarctic Peninsula ecosystem: the role of population dynamic models for explaining and predicting penguin trends

Sea ice concentration decline in an important Adélie penguin molt area

Unlike in many polar regions, the spatial extent and duration of the sea ice season have increased in the Ross Sea sector of the Southern Ocean during the satellite era. Simultaneously, populations of Adélie penguins, a sea ice obligate, have been stable or increasing in the region. Relationships between Adélie penguin population growth and sea ice concentration (SIC) are complex, with sea ice driving different, sometimes contrasting, demographic patterns. Adélie penguins undergo a complete molt annually, replacing all their feathers while fasting shortly after the breeding season. Unlike most penguin species, a majority of Adélies are thought to molt on sea ice, away from the breeding colonies, which makes this period particularly difficult to study. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that persistent areas of high SIC provide an important molting habitat for Adélie penguins. We analyzed data from geolocating dive recorders deployed year-round on 195 adult penguins at two colonies in the Ross Sea from 2017 to 2019. We identified molt by detecting extended gaps in postbreeding diving activity and used associated locations to define two key molting areas. Remotely sensed data indicated that SIC during molt was anomalously low during the study and has declined in the primary molt area since 1980. Further, annual return rates of penguins to breeding colonies were positively correlated with SIC in the molt areas over 20 y. Together these results suggest that sea ice conditions during Adélie penguin molt may represent a previously underappreciated annual bottleneck for adult survival.

Climate change impacts on seabirds and marine mammals: The importance of study duration, thermal tolerance and generation time

Understanding climate change impacts on top predators is fundamental to marine biodiversity conservation, due to their increasingly threatened populations and their importance in marine ecosystems. We conducted a systematic review of the effects of climate change (prolonged, directional change) and climate variability on seabirds and marine mammals. We extracted data from 484 studies (4808 published studies were reviewed), comprising 2215 observations on demography, phenology, distribution, diet, behaviour, body condition and physiology. The likelihood of concluding that climate change had an impact increased with study duration. However, the temporal thresholds for the effects of climate change to be discernibly varied from 10 to 29 years depending on the species, the biological response and the oceanic study region. Species with narrow thermal ranges and relatively long generation times were more often reported to be affected by climate change. This provides an important framework for future assessments, with guidance on response- and region-specific temporal dimensions that need to be considered when reporting effects of climate change. Finally, we found that tropical regions and non-breeding life stages were poorly covered in the literature, a concern that should be addressed to enable a better understanding of the vulnerability of marine predators to climate change.

How animals distribute themselves in space: energy landscapes of Antarctic avian predators

BACKGROUND

Energy landscapes provide an approach to the mechanistic basis of spatial ecology and decision-making in animals. This is based on the quantification of the variation in the energy costs of movements through a given environment, as well as how these costs vary in time and for different animal populations. Organisms as diverse as fish, mammals, and birds will move in areas of the energy landscape that result in minimised costs and maximised energy gain. Recently, energy landscapes have been used to link energy gain and variable energy costs of foraging to breeding success, revealing their potential use for understanding demographic changes.

METHODS

Using GPS-temperature-depth and tri-axial accelerometer loggers, stable isotope and molecular analyses of the diet, and leucocyte counts, we studied the response of gentoo (Pygoscelis papua) and chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarcticus) penguins to different energy landscapes and resources. We compared species and gentoo penguin populations with contrasting population trends.

RESULTS

Between populations, gentoo penguins from Livingston Island (Antarctica), a site with positive population trends, foraged in energy landscape sectors that implied lower foraging costs per energy gained compared with those around New Island (Falkland/Malvinas Islands; sub-Antarctic), a breeding site with fluctuating energy costs of foraging, breeding success and populations. Between species, chinstrap penguins foraged in sectors of the energy landscape with lower foraging costs per bottom time, a proxy for energy gain. They also showed lower physiological stress, as revealed by leucocyte counts, and higher breeding success than gentoo penguins. In terms of diet, we found a flexible foraging ecology in gentoo penguins but a narrow foraging niche for chinstraps.

CONCLUSIONS

The lower foraging costs incurred by the gentoo penguins from Livingston, may favour a higher breeding success that would explain the species' positive population trend in the Antarctic Peninsula. The lower foraging costs in chinstrap penguins may also explain their higher breeding success, compared to gentoos from Antarctica but not their negative population trend. Altogether, our results suggest a link between energy landscapes and breeding success mediated by the physiological condition.

Antarctic krill fishery effects over penguin populations under adverse climate conditions: Implications for the management of fishing practices

Fast climate changes in the western Antarctic Peninsula are reducing krill density, which along with increased fishing activities in recent decades, may have had synergistic effects on penguin populations. We tested that assumption by crossing data on fishing activities and Southern Annular Mode (an indicator of climate change in Antarctica) with penguin population data. Increases in fishing catch during the non-breeding period were likely to result in impacts on both chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarcticus) and gentoo (P. papua) populations. Catches and climate change together elevated the probability of negative population growth rates: very high fishing catch on years with warm winters and low sea ice (associated with negative Southern Annular Mode values) implied a decrease in population size in the following year. The current management of krill fishery in the Southern Ocean takes into account an arbitrary and fixed catch limit that does not reflect the variability of the krill population under effects of climate change, therefore affecting penguin populations when the environmental conditions were not favorable.

Antarctic Futures: An Assessment of Climate-Driven Changes in Ecosystem Structure, Function, and Service Provisioning in the Southern Ocean

In this article, we analyze the impacts of climate change on Antarctic marine ecosystems. Observations demonstrate large-scale changes in the physical variables and circulation of the Southern Ocean driven by warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and a positive Southern Annular Mode. Alterations in the physical environment are driving change through all levels of Antarctic marine food webs, which differ regionally. The distributions of key species, such as Antarctic krill, are also changing. Differential responses among predators reflect differences in species ecology. The impacts of climate change on Antarctic biodiversity will likely vary for different communities and depend on species range. Coastal communities and those of sub-Antarctic islands, especially range-restricted endemic communities, will likely suffer the greatest negative consequences of climate change. Simultaneously, ecosystem services in the Southern Ocean will likely increase. Such decoupling of ecosystem services and endemic species will require consideration in the management of human activities such as fishing in Antarctic marine ecosystems.

Reproductive performance and diving behaviour share a common sea-ice concentration optimum in Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae)

The Southern Ocean is currently experiencing major environmental changes, including in sea-ice cover. Such changes strongly influence ecosystem structure and functioning and affect the survival and reproduction of predators such as seabirds. These effects are likely mediated by reduced availability of food resources. As such, seabirds are reliable eco-indicators of environmental conditions in the Antarctic region. Here, based on 9 years of sea-ice data, we found that the breeding success of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) reaches a peak at intermediate sea-ice cover (ca. 20%). We further examined the effects of sea-ice conditions on the foraging activity of penguins, measured at multiple scales from individual dives to foraging trips. Analysis of temporal organisation of dives, including fractal and bout analyses, revealed an increasingly consistent behaviour during years with extensive sea-ice cover. The relationship between several dive parameters and sea-ice cover in the foraging area appears to be quadratic. In years of low and high sea-ice cover, individuals adjusted their diving effort by generally diving deeper, more frequently and by resting at the surface between dives for shorter periods of time than in years with intermediate sea-ice cover. Our study therefore suggests that sea-ice cover is likely to affect the reproductive performance of Adélie penguins through its effects on foraging behaviour, as breeding success and most diving parameters share a common optimum. Some years, however, deviated from this general trend, suggesting that other factors (e.g. precipitation during the breeding season) might sometimes become preponderant over the sea-ice effects on breeding and foraging performance. Our study highlights the value of monitoring fitness parameters and individual behaviour concomitantly over the long-term to better characterize optimal environmental conditions and potential resilience of wildlife. Such an approach is crucial if we want to anticipate the effects of environmental change on Antarctic penguin populations.

Temporal variation in trophic relationships among three congeneric penguin species breeding in sympatry

Penguins are a monophyletic group in which many species are found breeding sympatrically, raising questions regarding how these species coexist successfully. Here, the isotopic niche of three sympatric pygoscelid penguin species was investigated at Powell Island, South Orkney Islands, during two breeding seasons (austral summers 2013–2014 and 2015–2016). Measurements of carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) stable isotope ratios were obtained from blood (adults) or feather (chicks) samples collected from Adélie Pygoscelis adeliae, chinstrap P. antarctica, and gentoo P. papua penguins. Isotopic niche regions (a proxy for the realized trophic niches) were computed to provide estimates of the trophic niche width of the studied species during the breeding season. The isotopic niche regions of adults of all three species were similar, but gentoo chicks had noticeably wider isotopic niches than the chicks of the other two species. Moderate to strong overlap in isotopic niche among species was found during each breeding season and for both age groups, suggesting that the potential for competition for shared food sources was similar during the two study years, although the actual level of competition could not be determined owing to the lack of data on resource abundance. Clear interannual shifts in isotopic niche were seen in all three species, though of lower amplitude for adult chinstrap penguins. These shifts were due to variation in carbon, but not nitrogen, isotopic ratios, which could indicate either a change in isotopic signature of their prey or a switch to an alternative food web. The main conclusions of this study are that (1) there is a partial overlap in the isotopic niches of these three congeneric species and that (2) they responded similarly to changes that likely occurred at the base of their food chain between the 2 years of the study.