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Atwood TC, Rode KD, Douglas DC, Simac K, Pagano AM, Bromaghin JF. Long-term variation in polar bear body condition and maternal investment relative to a changing environment. Glob Ecol Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01925] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
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2
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Bromaghin JF, Douglas DC, Durner GM, Simac KS, Atwood TC. Survival and abundance of polar bears in Alaska's Beaufort Sea, 2001-2016. Ecol Evol 2021; 11:14250-14267. [PMID: 34707852 PMCID: PMC8525099 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2021] [Revised: 08/02/2021] [Accepted: 09/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice-free ecosystem. As ice-adapted apex predators, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food-web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark-recapture observations and satellite-telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - Todd C. Atwood
- U.S. Geological SurveyAlaska Science CenterAnchorageAKUSA
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3
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Zinc isotopes from archaeological bones provide reliable tropic level information for marine mammals. Commun Biol 2021; 4:683. [PMID: 34083709 PMCID: PMC8175341 DOI: 10.1038/s42003-021-02212-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2020] [Accepted: 05/12/2021] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
In marine ecology, dietary interpretations of faunal assemblages often rely on nitrogen isotopes as the main or only applicable trophic level tracer. We investigate the geographic variability and trophic level isotopic discrimination factors of bone zinc 66Zn/64Zn ratios (δ66Zn value) and compared it to collagen nitrogen and carbon stable isotope (δ15N and δ13C) values. Focusing on ringed seals (Pusa hispida) and polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from multiple Arctic archaeological sites, we investigate trophic interactions between predator and prey over a broad geographic area. All proxies show variability among sites, influenced by the regional food web baselines. However, δ66Zn shows a significantly higher homogeneity among different sites. We observe a clear trophic spacing for δ15N and δ66Zn values in all locations, yet δ66Zn analysis allows a more direct dietary comparability between spatially and temporally distinct locations than what is possible by δ15N and δ13C analysis alone. When combining all three proxies, a more detailed and refined dietary analysis is possible.
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4
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Florko KRN, Thiemann GW, Bromaghin JF. Drivers and consequences of apex predator diet composition in the Canadian Beaufort Sea. Oecologia 2020; 194:51-63. [PMID: 32897468 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-020-04747-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2019] [Accepted: 08/28/2020] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Abstract
Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) rely on annual sea ice as their primary habitat for hunting marine mammal prey. Given their long lifespan, wide geographic distribution, and position at the top of the Arctic marine food web, the diet composition of polar bears can provide insights into temporal and spatial ecosystem dynamics related to climate-mediated sea ice loss. Polar bears with the greatest ecological constraints on diet composition may be most vulnerable to climate-related changes in ice conditions and prey availability. We used quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) to estimate the diets of polar bears (n = 419) in two western Canadian Arctic subpopulations (Northern Beaufort Sea and Southern Beaufort Sea) from 1999 to 2015. Polar bear diets were dominated by ringed seal (Pusa hispida), with interannual, seasonal, age- and sex-specific variation. Foraging area and sea ice conditions also affected polar bear diet composition. Most variation in bear diet was explained by longitude, reflecting spatial variation in prey availability. Sea ice conditions (extent, thickness, and seasonal duration) declined throughout the study period, and date of sea ice break-up in the preceding spring was positively correlated with female body condition and consumption of beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas), suggesting that bears foraged on beluga whales during entrapment events. Female body condition was positively correlated with ringed seal consumption, and negatively correlated with bearded seal consumption. This study provides insights into the complex relationships between declining sea ice habitat and the diet composition and foraging success of a wide-ranging apex predator.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katie R N Florko
- Department of Biology, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada.
| | - Gregory W Thiemann
- Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada
| | - Jeffrey F Bromaghin
- Alaska Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, 4210 University Drive, Anchorage, AK, 99508, USA
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5
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Space use patterns affect stable isotopes of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. Polar Biol 2019. [DOI: 10.1007/s00300-019-02546-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
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Reimer JR, Caswell H, Derocher AE, Lewis MA. Ringed seal demography in a changing climate. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2019; 29:e01855. [PMID: 30672632 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1855] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2018] [Revised: 10/09/2018] [Accepted: 11/13/2018] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is affecting species' distributions and abundances worldwide. Baseline population estimates, against which future observations may be compared, are necessary if we are to detect ecological change. Arctic sea ice ecosystems are changing rapidly and we lack baseline population estimates for many ice-associated species. Provided we can detect them, changes in Arctic marine ecosystems may be signaled by changes in indicator species such as ringed seals (Pusa hispida). Ringed seal monitoring has provided estimates of survival and fertility rates, but these have not been used for population-level inference. Using matrix population models, we synthesized existing demographic parameters to obtain estimates of historical ringed seal population growth and structure in Amundsen Gulf and Prince Albert Sound, Canada. We then formalized existing hypotheses about the effects of emerging environmental stressors (i.e., earlier spring ice breakup and reduced snow depth) on ringed seal pup survival. Coupling the demographic model to ice and snow forecasts available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project resulted in projections of ringed seal population size and structure up to the year 2100. These projections showed median declines in population size ranging from 50% to 99%. Corresponding to these projected declines were substantial changes in population structure, with increasing proportions of ringed seal pups and adults and declining proportions of juveniles. We explored if currently collected, harvest-based data could be used to detect the projected changes in population stage structure. Our model suggests that at a present sample size of 100 seals per year, the projected changes in stage structure would only be reliably detected by mid-century, even for the most extreme climate models. This modeling process revealed inconsistencies in existing estimates of ringed seal demographic rates. Mathematical population models such as these can contribute both to understanding past population trends as well as predicting future ones, both of which are necessary if we are to detect and interpret future observations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jody R Reimer
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta , T6G 2E9, Canada
- Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2G1, Canada
| | - Hal Caswell
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, 1090, The Netherlands
| | - Andrew E Derocher
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta , T6G 2E9, Canada
| | - Mark A Lewis
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta , T6G 2E9, Canada
- Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2G1, Canada
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Ferguson SH, Zhu X, Young BG, Yurkowski DJ, Thiemann GW, Fisk AT, Muir DC. Geographic variation in ringed seal (Pusa hispida) growth rate and body size. CAN J ZOOL 2018. [DOI: 10.1139/cjz-2017-0213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
We summarize geographical patterns in ringed seal (Pusa hispida (Schreber, 1775)) body length and girth growth using 3012 samples collected by Inuit hunters in the eastern Canadian Arctic from 1990 to 2016. Spatial structure was detected using cluster analysis of environmental variables separating a northern region in the eastern Canadian High Arctic and a southern region in Hudson Bay. The north was characterized by more fast ice, multiyear ice, greater snow depth, colder temperatures, and greater sea-ice concentration in the spring seal breeding season. Hierarchical Bayesian models described length and axillary girth growth of northern seals as slower than in the south, reaching asymptotic size 5–7 years later. Northern females were larger than males (asymptotic length of 149 versus 140 cm, respectively) and both were larger than southern seals (males and females 126 cm). We conclude that environmental variation was best represented by regions rather than latitude, regional body size differences were driven by differential growth rates, and northern ringed seals may be characterized by reverse sexual size dimorphism.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven H. Ferguson
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 501 University Crescent, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N6, Canada
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada
| | - Xinhua Zhu
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 501 University Crescent, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N6, Canada
| | - Brent G. Young
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 501 University Crescent, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N6, Canada
| | - David J. Yurkowski
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 501 University Crescent, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N6, Canada
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada
| | - Gregory W. Thiemann
- Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada
| | - Aaron T. Fisk
- Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research, University of Windsor, 401 Sunset Avenue, Windsor, ON N9B 3P4, Canada
| | - Derek C.G. Muir
- Environment Climate Change Canada, Aquatic Contaminants Research Division, Burlington, ON L7S 1A1, Canada
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Mäkinen J, Vanhatalo J. Hierarchical Bayesian model reveals the distributional shifts of Arctic marine mammals. DIVERS DISTRIB 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12776] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jussi Mäkinen
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Program; Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences; University of Helsinki; Helsinki Finland
| | - Jarno Vanhatalo
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Program; Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences; University of Helsinki; Helsinki Finland
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics; Faculty of Science; University of Helsinki; Helsinki Finland
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Wilson RR, Regehr EV, Rode KD, St Martin M. Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss. Proc Biol Sci 2017; 283:rspb.2016.0380. [PMID: 27534959 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2016.0380] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2016] [Accepted: 07/26/2016] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan R Wilson
- US Fish and Wildlife Service, 1011 E Tudor Road, Anchorage, AK 99503, USA
| | - Eric V Regehr
- US Fish and Wildlife Service, 1011 E Tudor Road, Anchorage, AK 99503, USA
| | - Karyn D Rode
- US Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, 4210 University Drive, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA
| | - Michelle St Martin
- US Fish and Wildlife Service, 1011 E Tudor Road, Anchorage, AK 99503, USA
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Whiteman JP, Harlow HJ, Durner GM, Regehr EV, Rourke BC, Robles M, Amstrup SC, Ben-David M. Polar bears experience skeletal muscle atrophy in response to food deprivation and reduced activity in winter and summer. CONSERVATION PHYSIOLOGY 2017; 5:cox049. [PMID: 28835844 PMCID: PMC5550809 DOI: 10.1093/conphys/cox049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2017] [Revised: 07/05/2017] [Accepted: 07/26/2017] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
When reducing activity and using stored energy during seasonal food shortages, animals risk degradation of skeletal muscles, although some species avoid or minimize the resulting atrophy while experiencing these conditions during hibernation. Polar bears may be food deprived and relatively inactive during winter (when pregnant females hibernate and hunting success declines for other demographic groups) as well as summer (when sea ice retreats from key foraging habitats). We investigated muscle atrophy in samples of biceps femoris collected from free-ranging polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) throughout their annual cycle. Atrophy was most pronounced in April-May as a result of food deprivation during the previous winter, with muscles exhibiting reduced protein concentration, increased water content, and lower creatine kinase mRNA. These animals increased feeding and activity in spring (when seal prey becomes more available), initiating a period of muscle recovery. During the following ice melt of late summer, ~30% of SBS bears abandon retreating sea ice for land; in August, these 'shore' bears exhibited no muscle atrophy, indicating that they had fully recovered from winter food deprivation. These individuals subsequently scavenged whale carcasses deposited by humans and by October, had retained good muscle condition. In contrast, ~70% of SBS bears follow the ice north in late summer, into deep water with less prey. These 'ice' bears fast; by October, they exhibited muscle protein loss and rapid changes in myosin heavy-chain isoforms in response to reduced activity. These findings indicate that, unlike other bears during winter hibernation, polar bears without food in summer cannot mitigate atrophy. Consequently, prolonged summer fasting resulting from climate change-induced ice loss creates a risk of greater muscle atrophy and reduced abilities to travel and hunt.
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Affiliation(s)
- John P. Whiteman
- Program in Ecology, University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University Avenue, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University Avenue, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
| | - Henry J. Harlow
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University Avenue, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
| | - George M. Durner
- U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, 4210 University Drive, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA
| | - Eric V. Regehr
- Marine Mammals Management, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1011 East Tudor Road, Anchorage, AK 99503, USA
- Current: Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, 1013 NE 40th Street, Seattle, WA 98105, USA
| | - Bryan C. Rourke
- Department of Biological Sciences, California State University, 1250 Bellflower Blvd, Long Beach, CA 90840, USA
| | - Manuel Robles
- Department of Biological Sciences, California State University, 1250 Bellflower Blvd, Long Beach, CA 90840, USA
| | | | - Merav Ben-David
- Program in Ecology, University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University Avenue, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University Avenue, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
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Saadi Y, Yanto ITR, Herawan T, Balakrishnan V, Chiroma H, Risnumawan A. Ringed Seal Search for Global Optimization via a Sensitive Search Model. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0144371. [PMID: 26790131 PMCID: PMC4720396 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144371] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2015] [Accepted: 11/17/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The efficiency of a metaheuristic algorithm for global optimization is based on its ability to search and find the global optimum. However, a good search often requires to be balanced between exploration and exploitation of the search space. In this paper, a new metaheuristic algorithm called Ringed Seal Search (RSS) is introduced. It is inspired by the natural behavior of the seal pup. This algorithm mimics the seal pup movement behavior and its ability to search and choose the best lair to escape predators. The scenario starts once the seal mother gives birth to a new pup in a birthing lair that is constructed for this purpose. The seal pup strategy consists of searching and selecting the best lair by performing a random walk to find a new lair. Affected by the sensitive nature of seals against external noise emitted by predators, the random walk of the seal pup takes two different search states, normal state and urgent state. In the normal state, the pup performs an intensive search between closely adjacent lairs; this movement is modeled via a Brownian walk. In an urgent state, the pup leaves the proximity area and performs an extensive search to find a new lair from sparse targets; this movement is modeled via a Levy walk. The switch between these two states is realized by the random noise emitted by predators. The algorithm keeps switching between normal and urgent states until the global optimum is reached. Tests and validations were performed using fifteen benchmark test functions to compare the performance of RSS with other baseline algorithms. The results show that RSS is more efficient than Genetic Algorithm, Particles Swarm Optimization and Cuckoo Search in terms of convergence rate to the global optimum. The RSS shows an improvement in terms of balance between exploration (extensive) and exploitation (intensive) of the search space. The RSS can efficiently mimic seal pups behavior to find best lair and provide a new algorithm to be used in global optimization problems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Younes Saadi
- Department of Information Systems, University of Malaya, 50603 Pantai Valley, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Iwan Tri Riyadi Yanto
- Department of Computer Science, University of Ahmad Dahlan, Jalan Kapas n 9, Yogyakarta, 55165, Indonesia
| | - Tutut Herawan
- Department of Information Systems, University of Malaya, 50603 Pantai Valley, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Vimala Balakrishnan
- Department of Information Systems, University of Malaya, 50603 Pantai Valley, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
| | - Haruna Chiroma
- Department of Computer Science, Federal College of Education, (Technical), Gombe, Nigeria
| | - Anhar Risnumawan
- Department of Information Systems, University of Malaya, 50603 Pantai Valley, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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