Time-dependent memory and individual variation in Arctic brown bears (Ursus arctos)

BACKGROUND

Animal movement modelling provides unique insight about how animals perceive their landscape and how this perception may influence space use. When coupled with data describing an animal's environment, ecologists can fit statistical models to location data to describe how spatial memory informs movement.

METHODS

We performed such an analysis on a population of brown bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Arctic using a model incorporating time-dependent spatial memory patterns. Brown bear populations in the Arctic lie on the periphery of the species' range, and as a result endure harsh environmental conditions. In this kind of environment, effective use of memory to inform movement strategies could spell the difference between survival and mortality.

RESULTS

The model we fit tests four alternate hypotheses (some incorporating memory; some not) against each other, and we found a high degree of individual variation in how brown bears used memory. We found that 71% (15 of 21) of the bears used complex, time-dependent spatial memory to inform their movement decisions.

CONCLUSIONS

These results, coupled with existing knowledge on individual variation in the population, highlight the diversity of foraging strategies for Arctic brown bears while also displaying the inference that can be drawn from this innovative movement model.

Parasitoids indicate major climate-induced shifts in arctic communities

Climatic impacts are especially pronounced in the Arctic, which as a region is warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe. Here, we investigate how mean climatic conditions and rates of climatic change impact parasitoid insect communities in 16 localities across the Arctic. We focus on parasitoids in a widespread habitat, Dryas heathlands, and describe parasitoid community composition in terms of larval host use (i.e., parasitoid use of herbivorous Lepidoptera vs. pollinating Diptera) and functional groups differing in their closeness of host associations (koinobionts vs. idiobionts). Of the latter, we expect idiobionts-as being less fine-tuned to host development-to be generally less tolerant to cold temperatures, since they are confined to attacking hosts pupating and overwintering in relatively exposed locations. To further test our findings, we assess whether similar climatic variables are associated with host abundances in a 22 year time series from Northeast Greenland. We find sites which have experienced a temperature rise in summer while retaining cold winters to be dominated by parasitoids of Lepidoptera, with the reverse being true for the parasitoids of Diptera. The rate of summer temperature rise is further associated with higher levels of herbivory, suggesting higher availability of lepidopteran hosts and changes in ecosystem functioning. We also detect a matching signal over time, as higher summer temperatures, coupled with cold early winter soils, are related to high herbivory by lepidopteran larvae, and to declines in the abundance of dipteran pollinators. Collectively, our results suggest that in parts of the warming Arctic, Dryas is being simultaneously exposed to increased herbivory and reduced pollination. Our findings point to potential drastic and rapid consequences of climate change on multitrophic-level community structure and on ecosystem functioning and highlight the value of collaborative, systematic sampling effort.

Predation risk and space use of a declining Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) population

The abundance of ungulate populations may fluctuate in response to several limiting factors, including climate, diseases, and predation. In the northern Richardson Mountains, Canada, Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) have undergone a major decline in the past decades and predation by grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and wolves (Canis lupus) was suspected as a leading cause. To better understand the relationship between these three species located in this rugged and remote ecosystem, we relied on a combination of indirect methods. We investigated the apparent role of predation on the Dall sheep population using spatial ecology and stable isotopes. We examined seasonal variation in predation risk, focusing on how it may affect Dall sheep habitat use and sexual segregation, and we evaluated the proportion of Dall sheep in the diet of both predators using stable isotopes. The movements of the three species were monitored by satellite telemetry. Dall sheep habitat use patterns were analyzed using topographical features, greenness index, land cover, and apparent predation risk. The diets of grizzly bears and wolves were examined using a Bayesian mixing model for carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes. We found that Dall sheep habitat use varied seasonally, with different patterns for ewes and rams. Exposure to grizzly bear risk was higher for rams during summer, while ewes were further exposed to wolf apparent predation risk during winter. The importance of safe habitats for ewes was reflected in space use patterns. Stable isotopes analyses suggested that the diet of grizzly bears was largely from animal sources, with mountain mammals comprising about one quarter. Wolves mostly fed on both aquatic browsers and mountain mammals. Diet variation between individual predators suggested that some individuals specialized on mountain mammals, likely including Dall sheep. We conclude that grizzly bear and wolf apparent predation risk are important in driving Dall sheep habitat use and play a role in sexual segregation. Overall, this study presents an innovative combination of indirect methods that could be applied elsewhere to better understand predator-prey dynamics in remote ecosystems.

Ringed seal demography in a changing climate

Climate change is affecting species' distributions and abundances worldwide. Baseline population estimates, against which future observations may be compared, are necessary if we are to detect ecological change. Arctic sea ice ecosystems are changing rapidly and we lack baseline population estimates for many ice-associated species. Provided we can detect them, changes in Arctic marine ecosystems may be signaled by changes in indicator species such as ringed seals (Pusa hispida). Ringed seal monitoring has provided estimates of survival and fertility rates, but these have not been used for population-level inference. Using matrix population models, we synthesized existing demographic parameters to obtain estimates of historical ringed seal population growth and structure in Amundsen Gulf and Prince Albert Sound, Canada. We then formalized existing hypotheses about the effects of emerging environmental stressors (i.e., earlier spring ice breakup and reduced snow depth) on ringed seal pup survival. Coupling the demographic model to ice and snow forecasts available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project resulted in projections of ringed seal population size and structure up to the year 2100. These projections showed median declines in population size ranging from 50% to 99%. Corresponding to these projected declines were substantial changes in population structure, with increasing proportions of ringed seal pups and adults and declining proportions of juveniles. We explored if currently collected, harvest-based data could be used to detect the projected changes in population stage structure. Our model suggests that at a present sample size of 100 seals per year, the projected changes in stage structure would only be reliably detected by mid-century, even for the most extreme climate models. This modeling process revealed inconsistencies in existing estimates of ringed seal demographic rates. Mathematical population models such as these can contribute both to understanding past population trends as well as predicting future ones, both of which are necessary if we are to detect and interpret future observations.