Validation of the CR-POSSUM risk-adjusted scoring system for major colorectal cancer surgery in a single center

Evaluation of ACS-NSQIP and CR-POSSUM risk calculators for the prediction of mortality after colorectal surgery: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Several risk calculating tools have been introduced into clinical practice to provide patients and clinicians with objective, individualised estimates of procedure-related unfavourable outcomes. The currently available risk calculators (RCs) have been developed by well-endowed health systems in Europe and the USA. Applicability of these RCs in low-middle income country (LMIC) settings with wide disparities in patient population, surgical practice and healthcare infrastructure has not been adequately examined.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Through this single tertiary care, LMIC-centre, retrospective cohort study, we investigated the accuracy of the two most widely validated RCs - American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) RC and ColoRectal Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (CR-POSSUM) - for the prediction of mortality in patients undergoing elective and emergency colorectal surgery (CRS) from March 2013 to March 2020. Online RCs were used to predict mortality and other outcomes. Accuracy was assessed by Brier score and C statistic.

RESULTS

Of 105 patients, 69 (65.71%) underwent elective and 36 (34.28%) underwent emergency CRS. The 30-day overall mortality was 12 - elective 1 (1.4%) and emergency 11 (30.5%). ACS-NSQIP RC performed better for the prediction of overall ( C statistic 0.939, Brier score 0.065) and emergency ( C statistic 0.840, Brier score 0.152) mortality. However, for elective CRS mortality, Brier scores were similar for both models (0.014), whereas C statistic (0.934 vs. 0.890) value was better for ACS-NSQIP.

CONCLUSIONS

Both ACS-NSQIP and CR-POSSUM were accurate for the prediction of CRS mortality. However, compared to CR-POSSUM, ACS-NSQIP performed better. The overall performance of both models is indicative of their wider applicability in LMIC centres also.

Focal Cancer in Colitis

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a known complication of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Widely accepted guidelines recommend that patients with ulcerative colitis diagnosed with CRC undergo total proctocolectomy with or without ileal pouch-anal anastomosis, and that patients with Crohn's disease and CRC undergo either total colectomy or proctocolectomy. These approaches are ideal for preventing synchronous and metachronous cancer, minimizing risk of refractory colitis requiring reoperation, and is the appropriate treatment for the vast majority of patients with IBD who are diagnosed with CRC and require surgical intervention. Segmental colectomy, however, may be considered in select patients with IBD and CRC, specifically in elderly patients with short disease duration, in patients with mild colitis identified preoperatively, in patients with high operative risk and prohibitive comorbidities, and in patients whose CRC appears to be sporadic as opposed to colitis-associated. Patients undergoing segmental resection must be closely surveilled postoperatively for dysplasia, recurrent cancer, and refractory colitis.

O-POSSUM and P-POSSUM as predictors of morbidity and mortality in older patients after hip fracture surgery: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The POSSUM model has been widely used to predict morbidity and mortality after general surgery. Modified versions known as O-POSSUM and P-POSSUM have been used extensively in orthopedic surgery, but their accuracy is unclear. This systematic review evaluated the predictive value of these models in older patients with hip fractures.

METHODS

This study was performed and reported based on the "Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses" guidelines. PubMed, Cochrane, EMBASE, and Web of Science were comprehensively searched for relevant studies, whose methodological quality was evaluated according to the "Methodological index for non-randomized studies" scale. Revman 5 was used to calculate weighted ratios of observed to expected morbidity or mortality.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis included 10 studies, of which nine (2549 patients) assessed the ability of O-POSSUM to predict postoperative morbidity, nine (3649 patients) assessed the ability of O-POSSUM to predict postoperative mortality, and four (1794 patients) assessed the ability of P-POSSUM to predict postoperative mortality. The corresponding weighted ratios of observed to expected morbidity or mortality were 0.84 (95% CI 0.70-1.00), 0.68 (95% CI 0.49-0.95), and 0.61 (95% CI 0.16-2.38).

CONCLUSIONS

While O-POSSUM shows reasonable accuracy in predicting postoperative morbidity in older patients with hip fractures, both P-POSSUM and O-POSSUM substantially overestimate postoperative mortality. The POSSUM model should be optimized further for this patient population.

Prediction of Postoperative Survival in Young Colorectal Cancer Patients: A Cohort Study Based on the SEER Database

Objective

Our aim is to make accurate and robust predictions of the risk of postoperative death in young colorectal cancer patients (18-44 years old) by combining tumor characteristics with medical and demographic information about the patient.

Materials and Methods

We used the SEER database to retrieve young patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer who had undergone surgery between 2010 and 2015 as the study cohort. After excluding cases with missing information, the study cohort was divided in a 7 : 3 ratio into a training dataset and a validation dataset. To assess the predictive ability of each predictor on the prognosis of colorectal cancer patients, we used two steps of Cox univariate analysis and Cox stepwise regression to screen variables, and the screened variables were included in a multifactorial Cox proportional risk regression model for modeling. The performance of the model was tested using calibration curves, decision curves, and area under the curve (AUC) for receiver operating characteristic (ROC).

Results

After excluding cases with missing information (n = 23,606), a total of 11,803 patients were included in the study with a median follow-up time of 45 months (1-119). In the training set, we determined that ethnicity, marital status, insurance status, median annual household income, degree of tumor differentiation, type of pathology, degree of infiltration, and tumor location had independent effects on prognosis. In the training dataset, taking 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years as the time nodes, the areas under the working characteristic curve of subjects are 0.825, 0.851, and 0.839, respectively, and in the validation dataset, they are 0.834, 0.837, and 0.829, respectively.

Conclusion

We trained and validated a model using a large multicenter cohort of young colorectal cancer patients with stable and excellent performance in both training and validation datasets.

Critical Analysis of the Causes of In-Hospital Mortality following Colorectal Resection: A Queensland Audit of Surgical Mortality (QASM) Registry Study

Background

Colorectal resection is a major gastrointestinal operation. Improvements in peri-operative care has led to improved outcomes; however, mortalities still occur. Using data from the Queensland Audit of Surgical Mortality (QASM), this study examines the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients who died in hospital following colorectal resection, and also reports the primary cause of death in this population.

Methods

Patients who died in hospital following colorectal resection in Queensland between January 2010 and December 2020 were identified from the QASM database.

Results

There were 755 patients who died in the 10 year study period. Pre-operatively, the risk of death as subjectively determined by operating surgeons was ‘considerable’ in 397 cases (53.0%) and ‘expected’ in 90 cases (12.0%). The patients had a mean of 2.7 (±1.5) co-morbidities, and a mean American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) score of 3.6 (±0.8). Operations were categorised as emergency in 579 patients (77.2%), with 637 patients (85.0%) requiring post-operative Intensive Care Unit (ICU) support. The primary cause of death was related to a surgical cause in 395 patients (52.7%) and to a medical cause in 355 patients (47.3%). The primary causes of death were advanced surgical pathology (n=292, 38.9%), complications from surgery (n=103, 13.7%), complications arising from pre-existing medical co-morbidity (n=282, 37.6%) or new medical complications unrelated to pre-existing conditions (n=73, 9.7%).

Conclusions

Patients who died had significant co-morbidities and often presented emergently with an advanced surgical pathology. Surgical and medical causes of death both contributed equally to the mortality burden.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00268-022-06534-9.

Nomograms for morbidity and mortality after oncologic colon resection in the enhanced recovery era: results from a multicentric prospective national study

PURPOSE

Predicting postoperative complications and mortality is important to plan the surgical strategy. Different scores have been proposed before to predict them but none of them have been yet implemented into the routine clinical practice because their difficulties and low accuracy with new surgical strategies and enhanced recovery. The main aim of this study is to identify risk factors for postoperative morbidity and mortality after colonic resection (CR) without protective stomas, in order to develop a comprehensive, up-to-date, simple, reliable, and applicable model for the preoperative assessment of patients with colon cancer.

METHODS

Multivariable analysis was performed to identify risk factors for 60-day morbidity and mortality. Coefficients derived from the regression model were used in the nomograms to predict morbidity and mortality.

RESULTS

Three thousand one hundred ninety-three patients from 52 hospitals were included into the analysis. Sixty-day postoperative complications rate was 28.3% and the mortality rate was 3%. In multivariable analysis the independent risk factors for postoperative complications were age, male gender, liver and pulmonary diseases, obesity, preoperative albumin, anticoagulant treatment, open surgery, intraoperative complications, and urgent surgery. Independent risk factors for mortality were age, preoperative albumin anticoagulant treatment, and intraoperative complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors for morbidity and mortality after CR for cancer were identified and two easy predictive tools were developed. Both of them could provide important information for preoperative consultation and surgical planning in the time of enhance recovery.

Australasian ACPGBI risk prediction model for 30-day mortality after colorectal cancer surgery

BACKGROUND

Postoperative mortality after colorectal cancer surgery varies across hospitals and countries. The aim of this study was to test the Association of Coloproctologists of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) models as predictors of 30-day mortality in an Australian cohort.

METHODS

Data from patients who underwent surgery in six hospitals between 1996 and 2015 (CRC data set) were reviewed to test ACPGBI models, and patients from 79 hospitals in the Bi-National Colorectal Cancer Audit between 2007 and 2016 (BCCA data set) were analysed to validate model performance. Recalibrated models based on ACPGBI risk models were developed, tested and validated on a data set of Australasian patients.

RESULTS

Of 18 752 patients observed during the study, 6727 (CRC data set) and 3814 (BCCA data set) were analysed. The 30-day mortality rate was 1·1 and 3·5 per cent in the CRC and BCCA data sets respectively. Both the original and revised ACPGBI models overestimated 30-day mortality for the CRC data set (observed to expected (O/E) ratio 0·17 and 0·21 respectively). Their ability to correctly predict mortality risk was poor (P < 0·001, Hosmer-Lemeshow test); however, the area under the curve for both models was 0·88 (95 per cent c.i. 0·85 to 0·92) showing good discriminatory power to classify 30-day mortality. The recalibrated original model performed well for calibration and discrimination, whereas the recalibrated revised model performed well for discrimination but not for calibration. Risk prediction was good for both recalibrated models. On external validation using the BCCA data set, the recalibrated models underestimated mortality risk (O/E ratio 3·06 and 2·98 respectively), whereas both original and revised ACPGBI models overestimated the risk (O/E ratio 0·48 and 0·69). All models showed similar good discrimination.

CONCLUSION

The original and revised ACPGBI models overpredicted risk of 30-day mortality. The new Australasian calibrated ACPGBI model needs to be tested further in clinical practice.

The effect of trimodal prehabilitation on the physical and psychological health of patients undergoing colorectal surgery: a randomised clinical trial

Prehabilitation aims to increase the endurance capacity of patients who are awaiting major surgery. However, there are no studies investigating the implementation of this demanding and expensive intervention in low-income countries. This study aimed to assess the impact of a 4-week trimodal prehabilitation program on the physical and psychological health of patients waiting for colorectal surgery compared with a control group managed according to enhanced recovery after surgery principles supplemented by nutritional care. This study was a single-centre, randomised controlled trial. The primary outcome measures for the physical aspects were 6-minute walking distance (6MWD) and incentive spirometry, whereas the psychological elements were measured using the 36-item short form survey questionnaire and the hospital anxiety and depression score. In total, data from 149 patients were analysed (77 in the prehabilitation group and 72 in the control group). At the time of surgery, patients in the prehabilitation group had improved 6MWD and incentive spirometry compared with the control group (median (IQR [range]) percentage improvement 131% (112-173 [68-376]) vs. 107% (99-120 [63-163]); p < 0.001 and 113% (100-125 [75-200]) vs. 100% (100-112 [86-167]); p < 0.001 respectively). Patients in the prehabilitation group also had reduced anxiety scores compared with the control group (mean (SD) anxiety score (4 (3) vs. 5 (3) respectively; p = 0.032). However, these effects did not translate into improvements in postoperative mortality and morbidity, or a reduction in duration of hospital stay. Trimodal (physical, emotional and nutritional) prehabilitation is able to improve functional status as well as some parameters of emotional and physical well-being of patients waiting for colorectal surgery.

Predictive Model of the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Surgery, Based on the Minimum Basic Data Set

BACKGROUND

Various models have been proposed to predict mortality rates for hospital patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery. However, none have been developed in Spain using clinical administrative databases and none are based exclusively on the variables available upon admission. Our study aim is to detect factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer and, on this basis, to generate a predictive mortality score.

METHODS

A population cohort for analysis was obtained as all hospital admissions for colorectal cancer during the period 2008-2014, according to the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set. The main measure was actual and expected mortality after the application of the considered mathematical model. A logistic regression model and a mortality score were created, and internal validation was performed.

RESULTS

115,841 hospitalization episodes were studied. Of these, 80% were included in the training set. The variables associated with in-hospital mortality were age (OR: 1.06, 95%CI: 1.05-1.06), urgent admission (OR: 4.68, 95% CI: 4.36-5.02), pulmonary disease (OR: 1.43, 95%CI: 1.28-1.60), stroke (OR: 1.87, 95%CI: 1.53-2.29) and renal insufficiency (OR: 7.26, 95%CI: 6.65-7.94). The level of discrimination (area under the curve) was 0.83.

CONCLUSIONS

This mortality model is the first to be based on administrative clinical databases and hospitalization episodes. The model achieves a moderate-high level of discrimination.

Risk prediction models for postoperative outcomes of colorectal cancer surgery in the older population - a systematic review

BACKGROUND

An increasing number of patients with Colorectal Cancer (CRC) is 65 years or older. We aimed to systematically review existing clinical prediction models for postoperative outcomes of CRC surgery, study their performance in older patients and assess their potential for preoperative decision making.

METHODS

A systematic search in Pubmed and Embase for original studies of clinical prediction models for outcomes of CRC surgery. Bias and relevance for preoperative decision making with older patients were assessed using the CHARMS guidelines.

RESULTS

26 prediction models from 25 publications were included. The average age of included patients ranged from 61 to 76. Two models were exclusively developed for 65 and older. Common outcomes were mortality (n = 10), anastomotic leakage (n = 7) and surgical site infections (n = 3). No prediction models for quality of life or physical functioning were identified. Age, gender and ASA score were common predictors; 12 studies included intraoperative predictors. For the majority of the models, bias for model development and performance was considered moderate to high.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediction models are available that address mortality and surgical complications after CRC surgery. Most models suffer from methodological limitations, and their performance for older patients is uncertain. Models that contain intraoperative predictors are of limited use for preoperative decision making. Future research should address the predictive value of geriatric characteristics to improve the performance of prediction models for older patients.

[Is postoperative acute pain control in colorectal surgery better within an enhanced recovery after surgery program (ERAS)?]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

A good acute pain control is necessary to achieve the main objective of Enhanced recovery After Surgery (ERAS) programs and accelerate recovery. The study objective is to evaluate postoperative (PO) acute pain, PO opioid consumption, and its association with functional recovery, after implementing a colorectal surgery ERAS program. An analysis was made as regards drugs adverse effects.

METHODS

Observational cohort study on scheduled colorectal Surgery: one prospective cohort subjected to the ERAS care program, and one retrospective cohort that received traditional non-standardised care. A record was made of mean pain intensity (measured by a visual analogue scale, which classifies pain intensity from 0 to 10, from lower to higher intensity), as well as the amount of opioid consumption on the day of surgery and on the first three postoperative days, and drugs adverse effects. An analysis was made of the association between PO opioid consumption and ERAS program, and between PO opioid consumption and functional recovery.

RESULTS

The study included a total of 410 patients (313 in the ERAS group and 97 in the control group). In the ERAS group, it was observed that the mean visual analogue scale was less than 2, with a smaller amount of PO opioid consumption, on each single day and the accumulated amount of the four days (4 [0-24] vs. 0 [0-4], P<.001). PO opioid consumption was associated with functional recovery (OR 0.97 [95% CI; 0.96-0.99], P=.011). No drugs adverse effects were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

After implementing a colorectal Surgery ERAS program, good pain control was achieved, as well as a reduction in PO opioid consumption, which is associated with functional recovery. No drugs adverse effects were observed.

Predicting and Preventing Postoperative Outcomes

Complications after colorectal surgery are common. Given the frequency of postoperative complications and their implications on quality of life, it is important to know how to predict and prevent the complications that we encounter. This article aims to provide ways to predict and prevent postoperative complications in colorectal surgery. Here, we review the predictive models, American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program risk calculator and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity on their practicality and usefulness. Additionally, this review summarizes nonmodifiable and modifiable risk factors in colorectal surgery, which are important for surgeons to understand to minimize and attempt to avoid postoperative complications as well as providing ways to optimize patients preoperatively. Thus, this review will provide information to surgeons to predict and prevent postoperative complications, how to optimize patients preoperatively and ultimately to help reduce their occurrence.

Prognostic Nutritional Index predicts morbidity after curative surgery for colorectal cancer

INTRODUCTION

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major health concern and it is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Over the last decades, the relationship between cancer and nutritional and inflammatory status in oncologic patients was studied thoroughly and multiple immunonutritional scores were developed. These scores have been mainly related to the prognosis of several cancers. An interaction between the tumour and the host is generated, triggering a systemic inflammatory reaction leading to several neuroendocrine changes. This situation favours a tendency towards anorexia and catabolism. Our hypothesis is that nutritional and inflammatory status of oncologic patients is correlated to postoperative morbidity.

METHODS

This is a prospective observational cohort study with those patients undergoing curative surgery for CRC at our institution between September 2015 and March 2017. Nutritional and inflammatory status was established using Onodera's Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI). Complications (overall, severe, infectious and anastomotic leakage) were carefully collected during the first 30 days of the postoperative period.

RESULTS

After carrying out the multivariate analysis, PNI turned out to be a great predictive and protective factor for overall complications (RR: 0.279; 95% CI: 0.141-0.552), severe complications (RR: 0.355; 95% CI: 0.130-0.965), infectious complications (RR: 0.220; 95% CI: 0.099-0.489) and anastomotic leakage (RR: 0.151; 95% CI: 0.036-0.640).

CONCLUSION

Our work reports that PNI is an independent predictive factor for the development of postoperative complications following curative surgery for CRC.

The applicability of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores as predictors of morbidity and mortality in colorectal surgery

OBJECTIVE

to apply the POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores as a tool to predict morbidity and mortality in colorectal surgery.

METHODS

we conducted a prospective cohort study of 551 patients submitted to colorectal surgery in a colorectal surgery tertiary referral hospital in Brazil. We grouped patients into pre-established risk categories for comparison between expected and observed morbidity and mortality rates by the POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores.

RESULTS

in the POSSUM morbidity analysis, the overall expected morbidity was significantly higher than that observed (39.2% vs. 15.6%). The same occurred with patients grouped in categories II (28.9% x 10.5) and III (64.6% x 24.5%). In category I, the expected and observed morbidities were similar (13.7% x 9.1%). Regarding the evaluation of mortality, it was statistically higher than that observed in category III patients and in the total number of patients (11.3% vs. 5.6%). In categories I and II, we observed the same pattern of category III, but without statistical significance. When evaluating mortality by the P-POSSUM score, the overall expected and observed mortality was similar (5.8% x 5.6%). Of the 31 patients who died, 20.2% underwent emergency procedures and sepsis was the main cause of death.

CONCLUSION

the P-POSSUM score was an accurate tool to predict mortality and could be safely used in this population profile, unlike the POSSUM score.

Long-term outcomes and propensity score matching analysis: rectal cancer resection for patients with elevated preoperative risk

BACKGROUND

It is still controversial about the treatment strategy for rectal cancer patients with elevated operative risk and elder rectal cancer patients.

METHODS

This study presented a retrospective single center experience in rectal cancer proctectomy for high operative risk patients. High operative risk patient was defined as Cr-POSSUM > 5% combined with associated risk factors. 220 in 1477 consecutive patients met the inclusion criteria.

RESULTS

132 patients were selected (66:66) after propensity score matching. The total complication rate between conventional open rectal resection (71 %) and laparoscopic surgery (41%) was significantly different (p = 0.0005). There is a significantly positive correlation between open surgery and advanced Dindo Classification (p = 0.02). Cr-POSSUM is positively correlated with Dindo Classification (p = 0.01). There was no significant difference in survival rate among stage I∼II, different age groups or different Cr-POSSUM score sub-groups. However, stage III-IV tumor patients in laparoscopic group experienced improved overall survival rate. (p < 0.0001). For patients with preoperative pulmonary or renal disease, patients in laparoscopic group also had better long term prognosis (p = 0.03, p = 0.049).

CONCLUSIONS

The results demonstrate the potential advantages of laparoscopic rectal cancer resection for high operative risk patients, especially for the patients with preoperative respiratory or renal disease and stage III cancer.

[The POSSUM: a good scoring system for predicting mortality in elderly patients undergoing emergency surgery?]

Introduction

Le POSSUM (Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity) est un score prédictif de mortalité qui est largement utilisé en chirurgie aortique élective et abdominale. Le but de notre étude est une validation du POSSUM chez le sujet âgé (>70 ans) opéré pour une urgence digestive. Nous nous proposons d'étudier les meilleurs seuils du POSSUM, composé d'un score physiologique et d'un score opératoire, pour prédire la mortalité dans cette population.

Méthodes

Il s'agit d'une étude rétrospective analytique de type cas témoin à partir d'une série de 291 patients d'âge ≥ 70 ans opérés pour une urgence digestive. Ces patients étaient répartis en deux groupes comportant 50 patients chacun. Le groupe "DC": patients décédés en post opératoire immédiat et le Groupe témoin "SURV" choisis par tirage au sort. Nous avons analysé la fiabilité du POSSUM pour prédire la mortalité et la morbidité. Par la suite, nous avons établi des courbes de ROC pour définir les seuils qui donnent le meilleur couple sensibilité/spécificité.

Résultats

Le score physiologique, le score opératoire et les taux de morbidité et mortalité prédits par POSSUM et la mortalité prédit par P-POSSUM représentaient des facteurs prédictifs de mortalité (P <0,0001). Les valeurs seuils du score physiologique et du score opératoire qui donnent le meilleur couple sensibilité/spécificité, étaient respectivement de 23 et 15.

Conclusion

Prédire la mortalité permet de cibler la prise en charge et d'informer le patient et sa famille des risques encourus.

Surgical readmissions: results of integrating pre-, peri- and postsurgical care

AIMS

To explore the feasibility of recruiting surgical oncology patients and implementing a surgical integrated discharge (SID) programme led by advanced practice providers (APP).

BACKGROUND

Burden of illness and complexity of treatment regimen makes it challenging for surgical oncology patients to participate in research. Surgical oncology nurses may have the necessary expertise to overcome this problem.

DESIGN

Controlled longitudinal prospective observational study.

METHODS

The SID programme included multidisciplinary care coordination, regular communication among APPs and proactive postdischarge follow-up. Administrative databases were used to identify matching historical controls (n = 113) and evaluate programme outcomes.

RESULTS

Patient enrolment was 84%. The main challenges for the programme implementation included incompatible health information systems among care settings, variation in care processes among hospital units and need for provider behaviour change.

CONCLUSIONS

Most surgical oncology patients are willing to participate in outcomes programmes when contacted by familiar clinical personnel but programme implementation requires leadership support, communication among care teams and training and infrastructure.

Assessment of the Addition of Hypoalbuminemia to ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator in Colorectal Cancer

The aim of this study was to evaluate the benefit of adding hypoalbuminemia to the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator when predicting postoperative outcomes in colorectal cancer patients.The ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator offers qualified risk evaluation in surgical decision-making and informed patient consent. To date, malnutrition defined as hypoalbuminemia, an important independent surgical risk factor in colorectal cancer, is not included.This is a retrospective, multi-institutional study of ACS-NSQIP patients (n = 18,532) who received colorectal surgery from 2009 to 2012. Models were constructed for predicting postoperative mortality and morbidity using the risk factors of the ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator before and after adding hypoalbuminemia as a risk factor. The 2 models' performance was then compared using c-statistics and Brier scores. The ACS-NSQIP database in 2008 was used for validation of the created models.The prevalence of hypoalbuminemia (27.8%) is higher in colorectal cancer, when compared with other most common cancers. In univariate analyses, hypoalbuminemia was significantly associated with postoperative mortality and morbidity in colorectal cancer patients. In multivariate logistic regression analyses, 15 postoperative complications, including mortality and serious morbidities, were significantly predicted by hypoalbuminemia. Most of the models with hypoalbuminemia showed better performance and validation in predicting postoperative complications than those without hypoalbuminemia.In colorectal cancer, hypoalbuminemia, with levels below 3.5 g/dL, serves as an excellent assessment tool and preoperative predictor of postoperative outcomes. When combined with hypoalbuminemia as a risk factor, the ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator offers more accurate information and estimation of surgical risks to patients and surgeons when choosing treatment options.

Complications and risk prediction in treatment of elderly patients with rectal cancer

PURPOSE

The primary aim of this study was to characterise complications, identify predictors of postoperative morbidity and mortality and to evaluate existing risk prediction models in elderly rectal cancer patients.

METHODS

An observational single-centre study of 330 consecutive patients >75 years treated in 1994-2006. Analyses were performed by age group: 75-79 years, 80-85 years and >85 years.

RESULTS

Total observed in-hospital morbidity was 48.7 %. In multivariate analysis, age (OR 1.04, 95 % CI 1.01-1.08, p = 0.04), ASA grade ≥ 3 (p = 0.01), acute presentation (OR 1.67, 95 % CI 1.2-13.2, p = 0.02) and major surgery (APR OR 3.72, 95 % CI 1.37-10.15, p = 0.01, LAR OR 2.98, 95 % CI 1.14-7.79, p = 0.03, Hartmann OR 5.46, 95 % CI 1.60-19.28, p = 0.02) were independent risk factors for postoperative morbidity. The 30-day mortality was 6.3, 6.4 and 14.3 % (p = 0.146) in the three age groups, and the 100-day mortality was 8.7, 10.1 and 22.2 % (p = 0.03), respectively. ASA group 3 (OR 6.21, 95 % CI 4.39-27.69, p = 0.017), ASA group 4 (OR 32.6, 95 % CI 5.12-207.75, p < 0.001) and acute presentation (OR 6.48, 95 % CI 1.62-25.99, p = 0.008) increased the risk of 100-day mortality. The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) observed/estimated (O/E) ratio for morbidity was 1.05. For 30-day mortality, the colorectal POSSUM (Cr-POSSUM) O/E ratio was 0.74, Surgical Risk Scale 0.61 and the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) mortality model 0.63, and for 100-day mortality, ratios were 1.12, 0.91 and 0.95, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In this series, age increased the risk of in-hospital morbidity and 100-day mortality. Cr-POSSUM, SRS and ACPGBI overestimated 30-day mortality but predicted 100-day mortality with a high degree of accuracy. POSSUM correctly predicted in-hospital morbidity.

Colorectal surgical mortality and morbidity in elderly patients: comparison of POSSUM, P-POSSUM, CR-POSSUM, and CR-BHOM

PURPOSE

This study aims to compare the predictive value of POSSUM, P-POSSUM, CR-POSSUM and CR-BHOM in colorectal surgical mortality and morbidity in patients over 80 years old.

METHODS

This is a retrospective observational longitudinal study. A total of 991 patients who underwent major colorectal surgery between 2008 and 2012 in a secondary hospital in Portugal were screened, and 204 who were over 80 years old were included. Subgroup analysis was performed for malignant/benign disease and emergent/elective surgery. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and morbidity with Clavien-Dindo classification ≥ 2.

RESULTS

Of the 204 patients included in this study, 155 had malignant disease, and 65 underwent emergent procedures. Overall average age was 84.3 ± 3.9 years (range 80-100). Overall surgical mortality and morbidity were 18.6% (n = 38) and 52.4% (n = 87), respectively. Expected mortality followed the order P-POSSUM<CR-POSSUM<CR-BHOM (p < 0.001), and expected morbidity followed the order POSSUM<CR-BHOM (p < 0.001) in all groups. All scores were higher in the emergent surgery group compared with elective surgery (p < 0.05). All scores had sensitivity below 60%. Physiology scores were higher among patients with surgical mortality (p < 0.05), with no differences in operative scores.

CONCLUSIONS

In our population, CR-POSSUM was the best predictor of surgical mortality. POSSUM and P-POSSUM underestimated surgical mortality and morbidity, and CR-BHOM overestimated surgical mortality, being however the best predictor of morbidity. Nevertheless, none of the scores showed sufficient discriminatory power to have clinical application value. Moreover, our results suggest that, in elderly patients, it is the patient's health status and not the type of surgery that is mainly responsible for the surgical outcome.

Model for risk adjustment of postoperative mortality in patients with colorectal cancer

Background

A model was developed for risk adjustment of postoperative mortality in patients with colorectal cancer in order to make fair comparisons between healthcare providers. Previous models were derived in relatively small studies with the use of suboptimal modelling techniques.

Methods

Data from adults included in a national study of major surgery for colorectal cancer were used to develop and validate a logistic regression model for 90-day mortality. The main risk factors were identified from a review of the literature. The association with age was modelled as a curved continuous relationship. Bootstrap resampling was used to select interactions between risk factors.

Results

A model based on data from 62 314 adults was developed that was well calibrated (absolute differences between observed and predicted mortality always smaller than 0·75 per cent in deciles of predicted risk). It discriminated well between low- and high-risk patients (C-index 0·800, 95 per cent c.i. 0·793 to 0·807). An interaction between age and metastatic disease was included as metastatic disease was found to increase postoperative risk in young patients aged 50 years (odds ratio 3·53, 95 per cent c.i. 2·66 to 4·67) far more than in elderly patients aged 80 years (odds ratio 1·48, 1·32 to 1·66).

Conclusion

Use of this model, estimated in the largest number of patients with colorectal cancer to date, is recommended when comparing postoperative mortality of major colorectal cancer surgery between hospitals, clinical teams or individual surgeons.

Effect of prehabilitation on objectively measured physical fitness after neoadjuvant treatment in preoperative rectal cancer patients: a blinded interventional pilot study

BACKGROUND

Patients requiring surgery for locally advanced rectal cancer often additionally undergo neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACRT), of which the effects on physical fitness are unknown. The aim of this feasibility and pilot study was to investigate the effects of NACRT and a 6 week structured responsive exercise training programme (SRETP) on oxygen uptake [Formula: see text] at lactate threshold ([Formula: see text]) in such patients.

METHODS

We prospectively studied 39 consecutive subjects (27 males) with T3-4/N+ resection margin threatened rectal cancer who completed standardized NACRT. Subjects underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing at baseline (pre-NACRT), at week 0 (post-NACRT), and week 6 (post-SRETP). Twenty-two subjects undertook a 6 week SRETP on a training bike (three sessions per week) between week 0 and week 6 (exercise group). These were compared with 17 contemporaneous non-randomized subjects (control group). Changes in [Formula: see text] at [Formula: see text] over time and between the groups were compared using a compound symmetry covariance linear mixed model.

RESULTS

Of 39 recruited subjects, 22 out of 22 (exercise) and 13 out of 17 (control) completed the study. There were differences between the exercise and control groups at baseline [age, ASA score physical status, World Health Organisation performance status, and Colorectal Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (CR-POSSUM) predicted mortality]. In all subjects, [Formula: see text] at [Formula: see text] significantly reduced between baseline and week 0 [-1.9 ml kg(-1) min(-1); 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.3, -2.6; P<0.0001]. In the exercise group, [Formula: see text] at [Formula: see text] significantly improved between week 0 and week 6 (+2.1 ml kg(-1) min(-1); 95% CI +1.3, +2.9; P<0.0001), whereas the control group values were unchanged (-0.7 ml kg(-1) min(-1); 95% CI -1.66, +0.37; P=0.204).

CONCLUSIONS

NACRT before rectal cancer surgery reduces physical fitness. A structured exercise intervention is feasible post-NACRT and returns fitness to baseline levels within 6 weeks.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NCT

01325909.

Actual endoscopic versus predicted surgical mortality for treatment of advanced mucosal neoplasia of the colon

BACKGROUND

EMR of advanced mucosal neoplasia (AMN) (ie, sessile or laterally spreading lesions of ≥20 mm) of the colon has become an increasingly popular alternative to surgical resection. However, data regarding safety and mortality of EMR in comparison to surgery are limited.

OBJECTIVE

To compare actual endoscopic with predicted surgical mortality.

DESIGN

Prospective, observational, multicenter cohort study.

SETTING

Academic, high-volume, tertiary-care referral center.

PATIENTS

Consecutive patients referred for EMR.

INTERVENTION EMR MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS

To predict hypothetical surgical mortality, the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland score, composed of physiological and surgical components, was calculated for each patient. Predicted surgical mortality was then compared with actual outcomes of EMR. The results were validated by an unselected subcohort by using the Colorectal Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity.

RESULTS

Among 1050 patients with AMN treated by EMR, including patients with a predicted mortality rate of greater than 5% (13.8% of cohort), no deaths occurred within 30 days after the procedure. The predicted surgical mortality rate was 3.3% with the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland score (P < .0001). This suggests a significant advantage of EMR over surgery. The results were validated by using the Colorectal Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity in 390 patients predicting a surgical mortality rate of 3.2% (P = .0003).

LIMITATIONS

Nonrandomized study.

CONCLUSION

In this large multicenter study of EMR for colonic AMN, the predicted surgical mortality rate was significantly higher than the actual endoscopic mortality rate. Given that endoscopic therapy is less morbid and less expensive than surgery and can be performed as an outpatient treatment, it should be considered as the first line of treatment for most patients with these lesions.

Predicting postoperative mortality after colorectal surgery: a novel clinical model

AIM

The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a clinically, practical and discriminative prediction model designed to estimate in-hospital mortality of patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

METHOD

All consecutive patients who underwent elective or emergency colorectal surgery from 1990 to 2005, at the Zaandam Medical Centre, The Netherlands, were included in this study. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) linking the explanatory variables to the outcome variable in-hospital mortality, and a simplified Identification of Risk in Colorectal Surgery (IRCS) score was constructed. The model was validated in a population of patients who underwent colorectal surgery from 2005 to 2011 in Barcelona, Spain. Predictive performance was estimated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

The strongest predictors of in-hospital mortality were emergency surgery (OR = 6.7, 95% CI 4.7-9.5), tumour stage (OR = 3.2, 95% CI 2.8-4.6), age (OR = 13.1, 95% CI 6.6-26.0), pulmonary failure (OR = 4.9, 95% CI 3.3-7.1) and cardiac failure (OR = 3.7, 95% CI 2.6-5.3). These parameters were included in the prediction model and simplified scoring system. The IRCS model predicted in-hospital mortality and demonstrated a predictive performance of 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87) in the validation population. In this population the predictive performance of the CR-POSSUM score was 0.76 (95% CI 0.71-0.81).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study have shown that the IRCS score is a good predictor of in-hospital mortality after colorectal surgery despite the relatively low number of model parameters.

The effects of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy on physical fitness and morbidity in rectal cancer surgery patients

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACRT) followed by surgery for resectable locally advanced rectal cancer improves outcome compared with surgery alone. Our primary hypothesis was that NACRT impairs objectively-measured physical fitness. We also wished to explore the relationship between fitness and postoperative outcome.

METHOD

In an observational study, we prospectively studied 27 consecutive patients, of whom 25 undertook cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) 2 weeks before and 7 weeks after standardized NACRT, then underwent surgery. In-hospital post-operative morbidity and mortality were recorded. Patients were followed up to 1 year for mortality. Data was analysed blind to clinical details. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis defined the predictive value of CPET for in-hospital morbidity at day 5.

RESULTS

Oxygen uptake ( [Formula: see text] in ml kg(-1) min(-1)) at estimated lactate threshold (θˆL) and at peak exercise ( [Formula: see text] at peak in ml kg(-1) min(-1)) both significantly decreased post-NACRT: [Formula: see text] at θˆL 12.1 (pre-NACRT) vs. 10.6 (post-NACRT), p < 0.001 (95%CI -1.7, -1.2); [Formula: see text] at peak 18.1 vs. 16.7, p < 0.001 (95%CI -3.1, -1.0). Optimal [Formula: see text] at θˆL and peak pre-NACRT for predicting postoperative morbidity were 12.0 and 18.1 ( [Formula: see text] at θˆL - AUC = 0.71, 77% sensitive and 75% specific; [Formula: see text] at peak - AUC = 0.75, 78% sensitive and 76% specific). Optimal [Formula: see text] at θˆL and peak post-NACRT for predicting postoperative morbidity were 10.7 and 16.7 ( [Formula: see text] at θˆL - AUC = 0.72, 77% sensitive and 83% specific; [Formula: see text] at peak - AUC = 0.80, 85% sensitive and 83% specific).

CONCLUSION

NACRT before major rectal cancer surgery significantly decreased physical fitness as assessed by CPET.

TRIALS REGISTRY NUMBER

NCT01334593.

Prospective, controlled, randomized study of intraoperative colonic lavage versus stent placement in obstructive left-sided colonic cancer

BACKGROUND

The main aim of this study was to compare short-term results and long-term outcomes of patients who underwent intraoperative colonic lavage (IOCL) with primary anastomosis with those who had stent placement prior to scheduled surgery for obstructive left-sided colonic cancer (OLCC).

METHODS

We conducted a prospective, controlled, randomized study of patients diagnosed with OLCC. Patients were divided into two groups: stent and deferred surgery (group 1) and emergency IOCL (group 2). Demographic variables, risk prediction models, postoperative morbidity and mortality, staging, complications due to stent placement, surgical time, clinical follow-up, health costs, and follow-up of survival were recorded.

RESULTS

Twenty-eight patients (15 group 1 and 13 group 1) were enrolled. The study was suspended upon detecting excess morbidity in group 2. The two groups were homogeneous in clinical and demographic terms. Overall morbidity in group 1 was 2/15 (13.3%) compared with 7/13 (53.8%) in group 2 (p = 0.042). None of the 15 patients in group 1 presented anastomotic dehiscence compared with 4/13 (30.7%) in group 2 (p = 0.035). Surgical site infection was detected in 2 (13.3%) patients in group 1 and in 6 (46.1%) in group 2 (p = 0.096). Postoperative stay was 8 days (IQR 3, group 1) and 10 days (IQR 10, group 2) (p = 0.05). The mean follow-up period was 37.6 months (SD = 16.08) with no differences in survival between the groups.

CONCLUSION

In our setting, the use of a stent and scheduled surgery is safer than IOCL and is associated with lower morbidity, shorter hospital stay, and equally good long-term survival.

Congestive heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease predict poor surgical outcomes in older adults undergoing elective diverticulitis surgery

BACKGROUND

Diverticulitis is a common medical condition that disproportionately affects older adults. The ideal management of recurrent diverticulitis, including the role of prophylactic colectomy, remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the outcomes among older patients undergoing elective surgery for diverticulitis and examine subgroups of patients with comorbid congestive heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to determine whether outcomes in these patients are worse than in other groups.

DESIGN

This article reports a retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing elective surgery for diverticulitis.

SETTING

Data were derived from the 100% Medicare Provider Analysis and Review inpatient files from 2004 to 2007.

PATIENTS

Included were 22,752 patients, age 65 years and older, with a primary diagnosis of diverticulitis that underwent elective left-colon resection, colostomy, or ileostomy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

The primary outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. The secondary outcome measures were intestinal diversion rates (colostomy and ileostomy) and postoperative complications.

RESULTS

Overall mortality, intestinal diversion (colostomy and ileostomy), and postoperative complication rate were 1.2%, 11.3%, and 22.1%. Patients with congestive heart failure had increased odds of in-hospital mortality (OR 3.5, 95% CI 2.59-4.63), colostomy (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.69-2.27), and all postoperative complications, including hemorrhagic (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.01-2.11), wound (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.50-2.39), pulmonary (OR 4.2, 95% CI 3.59-4.85), cardiac (OR 4.6, 95% CI 3.68-5.74), postoperative shock/sepsis (OR 3.2, 95% CI 2.53-4.35), renal (OR 4.1, 95% CI 3.22-5.12), and thromboembolic (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.00-2.43) complications. Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease had significantly increased odds of wound (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.19-1.67) and pulmonary (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.94-2.50) complications. Advancing age, congestive heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were significantly associated with increased morbidity and mortality.

LIMITATIONS

Medicare data are limited by the potential for lack of generalizability to patients <65 years and the potential for coding errors.

CONCLUSIONS

Elective diverticular surgery in older patients carries substantial morbidity, especially in those patients with comorbid congestive heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The rate of perioperative complications that we document in this patient population may attenuate some of the expected benefit of surgery.

Predicting outcome following colorectal cancer surgery using a colorectal biochemical and haematological outcome model (Colorectal BHOM)

AIM

To present a new biochemistry and haematology outcome model which uses a minimum dataset to model outcome following colorectal cancer surgery, a concept previously shown to be feasible with arterial operations.

METHOD

Predictive binary logistic regression models (a mortality and morbidity model) were developed for 704 patients who underwent colorectal cancer surgery over a 6-year period in one hospital. The variables measured included 30-day mortality and morbidity. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit statistics and frequency tables compared the predicted vs the reported number of deaths. Discrimination was quantified using the c-index.

RESULTS

There were 573 elective and 131 nonelective interventional cases. The overall mean predicted risk of death was 7.79% (50 patients). The actual number of reported deaths was also 50 patients (χ(2) = 1.331, df = 4, P-value = 0.856; no evidence of lack of fit). For the mortality model, the predictive c-index was = 0.810. The morbidity model had less discriminative power but there was no evidence of lack of fit (χ(2) = 4.198, df = 4, P-value = 0.380, c-index = 0.697).

CONCLUSIONS

The Colorectal Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome mortality model suggests good discrimination (c-index > 0.8) and uses only a minimal number of variables. However, it needs to be tested on independent datasets in different geographical locations.

Establishing quality in colorectal surgery

AIM

The review aimed to offer a contemporary perspective of the quality of current colorectal surgery.

METHOD

A literature search was undertaken to identify relevant indicators. Citations were included if they related to quality in colorectal surgery. The search terms used included the Medical Subject Heading terms and Boolean characters: 'colon' OR 'colorectal', OR 'rectal' OR 'rectum' AND 'Quality Indicators', OR 'Quality Assurance', OR 'Quality of healthcare', OR 'Reference Standards', OR 'Quality' plus a variable floating term. A two-person independent review was undertaken from resulting citations and their consequent reference lists. The search was limited to citations from 2000 to 2010 in humans and to the English language.

RESULTS

Metrics identified as potential quality indicators in colorectal surgery are discussed according to the structure, process and outcome framework.

CONCLUSION

A clear appreciation of the scope of individual metrics for quality appraisal purposes is necessary if they are to be used meaningfully for performance benchmarking.

Predictive value of POSSUM and ACPGBI scoring in mortality and morbidity of colorectal resection: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

Preoperative risk prediction to assess mortality and morbidity may be helpful to surgical decision making. The aim of this study was to compare mortality and morbidity of colorectal resections performed in a tertiary referral center with mortality and morbidity as predicted with physiological and operative score for enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM), and colorectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM). The second aim of this study was to analyze the accuracy of different POSSUM scores in surgery performed for malignancy, inflammatory bowel diseases, and diverticulitis. POSSUM scoring was also evaluated in colorectal resection in acute vs. elective setting. In procedures performed for malignancy, the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) score was assessed in the same way for comparison.

METHODS

POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM predictor equations for mortality were applied in a retrospective case-control study to 734 patients who had undergone colorectal resection. The total group was assessed first. Second, the predictive value of outcome after surgery was assessed for malignancy (n = 386), inflammatory bowel diseases (n = 113), diverticulitis (n = 91), and other indications, e.g., trauma, endometriosis, volvulus, or ischemia (n = 144). Third, all subgroups were assessed in relation to the setting in which surgery was performed: acute or elective. In patients with malignancy, the ACPGBI score was calculated as well. In all groups, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed.

RESULTS

POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM have a significant predictive value for outcome after colorectal surgery. Within the total population as well as in all four subgroups, there is no difference in the area under the curve between the POSSUM, P-POSSUM, and CR-POSSUM scores. In the subgroup analysis, smallest areas under the ROC curve are seen in operations performed for malignancy, which is significantly worse than for diverticulitis and in operations performed for other indications. For elective procedures, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM predict outcome significantly worse in patients operated for carcinoma than in patients with diverticulitis. In acute surgical interventions, CR-POSSUM predicts mortality better in diverticulitis than in patients operated for other indications. The ACPGBI score has a larger area under the curve than any of the POSSUM scores. Morbidity as predicted by POSSUM is most accurate in procedures for diverticulitis and worst when the indication is malignancy.

CONCLUSION

The POSSUM scores predict outcome significantly better than can be expected by chance alone. Regarding the indication for surgery, each POSSUM score predicts outcome in patients operated for diverticulitis or other indications more accurately than for malignancy. The ACPGBI score is found to be superior to the various POSSUM scores in patients who have (elective) resection of colorectal malignancy.

A systematic review of POSSUM and its related models as predictors of post-operative mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer

INTRODUCTION

The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) model and its Portsmouth (P-POSSUM) and colorectal (CR-POSSUM) modifications are used extensively to predict and audit post-operative mortality and morbidity. This aim of this systematic review was to assess the predictive value of the POSSUM models in colorectal cancer surgery.

METHODS

Major electronic databases, including Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library and Pubmed were searched for original studies published between 1991 and 2010. Two independent reviewers assessed each study against inclusion and exclusion criteria. All data was specific to colorectal cancer surgery. Predictive value was assessed by calculating observed to expected (O/E) ratios.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies were included in final review. The mortality analysis included ten studies (4,799 patients) on POSSUM, 17 studies (6,576 patients) on P-POSSUM and 14 studies (5,230 patients) on CR-POSSUM. Weighted O/E ratios for mortality were 0.31 (CI 0.31-0.32) for POSSUM, 0.90 (CI 0.88-0.92) for P-POSSUM and 0.64 (CI 0.63-0.65) for CR-POSSUM. The morbidity analysis included four studies (768 patients) on POSSUM with a weighted O/E ratio of 0.96 (CI 0.94-0.98).

CONCLUSIONS

P-POSSUM was the most accurate model for predicting post-operative mortality after colorectal cancer surgery. The original POSSUM model was accurate in predicting post-operative complications.

Pelvic ring fractures are an independent risk factor for death after blunt trauma

BACKGROUND

It is unknown whether pelvic ring fracture is an independent predictor of death after blunt trauma. Few previous studies have attempted to analyze whether the high death rate observed in association with pelvic ring injury is secondary to the pelvic ring injury or merely related to many other injuries that typically are sustained in such cases. Our hypothesis was that pelvic ring fracture is an independent risk factor for death, even after accounting for the risk of death from other associated injuries.

METHODS

We reviewed the records of 31,550 patients who presented with blunt trauma at our Level I trauma center from 1995 to 2002. We analyzed our prospectively collected database and excluded any patient who was missing more than one demographic parameter (n = 414, 1.3% of the data set). Our study group consisted of 1,017 patients with pelvic ring fractures and 30,119 patients with blunt trauma without pelvic ring fractures. Multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to account for the relative contribution of associated clinical criteria to mortality. A mortality model was then designed by using the regression analysis, allowing us to compare a calculated chance of death for each patient in the study group. We then compared the expected number of deaths of patients with pelvic injury with the actual number of observed deaths in that data set. Additionally, we conducted a second statistical analysis with which we compared the death rate of our pelvic ring fracture population (n = 1,017) with a matched subgroup (n = 1,017) from our patient population without pelvic ring fractures (n = 30,119).

RESULTS

The presence of pelvic ring fracture was found to be an independent risk factor for mortality in the blunt trauma population based on both statistical methods (odds ratios, 1.9 [p < 0.001] and 2.1 [p < 0.0007]). Other significant predictors of mortality included patient age, Injury Severity Score, Glasgow Coma Scale score, systolic blood pressure and respiratory rate at admission, and several medical comorbidities.

CONCLUSION

The presence of pelvic ring fracture seems to represent a clinically significant independent risk factor for mortality, even after accounting for the association with potentially severe additional body system injuries.

Elderly POSSUM, a dedicated score for prediction of mortality and morbidity after major colorectal surgery in older patients

BACKGROUND

Several scores have been developed to evaluate surgical unit mortality and morbidity. The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and derivatives use preoperative and intraoperative factors, whereas the Surgical Risk Scale (SRS) and Association Française de Chirurgie (AFC) score use four simple factors. To allow for advanced age in patients undergoing colorectal surgery, a dedicated score-the Elderly (E) POSSUM-has been developed and its accuracy compared with these scores.

METHODS

From 2002 to 2004, 1186 elderly patients, at least 65 years old, undergoing major colorectal surgery in France were enrolled. Accuracy was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (discrimination) and calibration.

RESULTS

The mortality and morbidity rates were 9 and 41 per cent respectively. The E-POSSUM had both a good discrimination (AUC = 0.86) and good calibration (P = 0.178) in predicting mortality and a reasonable discrimination (AUC = 0.77) and good calibration (P = 0.166) in predicting morbidity. The E-POSSUM was significantly better at predicting mortality and morbidity than the AFC score (P(c) = 0.014 and P(c) < 0.001 respectively).

CONCLUSION

The E-POSSUM is a good tool for predicting mortality, and the only efficient scoring system for predicting morbidity after major colorectal surgery in the elderly.

Perioperative outcome of colorectal cancer and validation of CR-POSSUM in a Caribbean country

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the risk-adjusted perioperative outcome of colorectal cancer surgery, applying the Colorectal Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and morbidity (CR-POSSUM).

METHODS

A retrospective chart review of patients who underwent colorectal cancer surgery from 2004 to 2007 was done. Data including demographics and physiological data for CR-POSSUM were recorded. Predicted mortality was calculated; validation of CR-POSSUM was done using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve analyses.

RESULTS

232 patients were studied. The overall mean CR-POSSUM score was 18.3+/-3.8 (SD). Predicted mortality was 7.7%, observed mortality was 6.9% and the standardized mortality ratio was 0.9. 34.4% of patients presented with Duke's Stage C or D and had a higher risk of mortality (Odds Ratio (OR) 3.1, 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 1.1, 9.1). Emergency surgery was associated with a higher risk of mortality (OR 4.7, 95% CI 1.5, 14.1). CR-POSSUM calibrated well (Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi-square value 4.3; df: 8; p=0.82) and fairly discriminated outcome as shown by the area under the ROC Curve 0.69, (Standard Error: 0.07).

CONCLUSIONS

Perioperative outcome of colorectal surgery in Trinidad and Tobago is comparable to the developed countries as evaluated by the CR-POSSUM. Patients presenting for emergency surgery and those with advanced stages of cancer had higher perioperative mortality.

Colorectal surgery in octogenarian patients--outcomes and predictors of morbidity

INTRODUCTION

Surgery for elderly patients pose a constant challenge. This study aims to review the outcome and find predictors of adverse outcome in octogenarians undergoing major colorectal resection for cancer.

METHODS

A review of 121 octogenarians who underwent colorectal cancer surgery between September 1992 and May 2008 was performed. Comorbidities were quantified using the weighted Charlson Comorbidity Index and ASA classification. CR-POSSUM scores and ACPGBI scores and the predicted mortality rates were calculated. Outcome measures were morbidity rates and 30-day mortality rates.

RESULTS

The patients had a mean age of 83.5 years (range, 80-99). The mean index of comorbidity was 3.1 (2-7) and 12.5% of patients were classified ASA III and above. The mean predicted mortality rate based on CR-POSSUM and ACPGBI scoring models were 11.2% and 5.4% respectively. The overall observed morbidity rate was 30.7% and 30-day mortality was 1.6. Factors found on bivariate analysis to be significantly associated with an increased risk of morbidity were tumor presenting with complication, comorbid coronary heart disease, serum urea levels, ASA classification > or =3 and comorbidity index 3 of 5 > or = 5. Multivariate analysis revealed the latter two factors to be independent predictors of morbidity.

CONCLUSION

Octogenarians undergoing major colorectal resection have an acceptable perioperative morbidity and mortality rate and survival rate and should not be denied surgery based on age alone. Comorbidity index scores and ASA scores are useful tools to identify poor risk patients.

A multivariate analysis of potential risk factors for intra- and postoperative complications in 1316 elective laparoscopic colorectal procedures

OBJECTIVE

To identify predictive risk factors for intra- and postoperative complications in patients undergoing laparoscopic colorectal surgery.

BACKGROUND DATA

In emergency situations or in elective open and laparoscopic colorectal surgery, there are many risk factors that should be recognized by the surgeon to reduce complications and initiate adequate treatment. Most available data, thus far, refer to open colorectal surgery and literature that focuses mainly on a laparoscopic approach is still rare.

METHODS

Univariate and multivariate analyses of a prospectively gathered database (1993-2006) were performed on a consecutive series of patients (1316) undergoing laparoscopic colorectal surgery who were operated at a single institution (first referral center). Patients were assessed for demographic data, operative indications, type of resection, and intra- and postoperative complications. Altogether, we analyzed 20 potential risk factors to identify significant influence on the intra- and postoperative outcome.

RESULTS

Significant risk factors that led to intraoperative complications consisted of age > or = 75 years and malignant neoplasia. Increased postoperative rate of surgical complications was significantly influenced by male gender, age > or = 75 years, American Society of Anesthesiology class > or = III, malignant neoplasia, and the experience of the surgeon. The analysis of specific medical postoperative complications revealed even more significant predictive risk factors. In addition, our analysis showed that specific risk factors predict specific complications such as postoperative bleeding, anastomotic leakage, and surgical site infections. The type of surgical procedure performed also influenced patient outcome.

CONCLUSION

This large single center study provides the first evidence of the significance of predictive risk factors for intra- and postoperative complications in laparoscopic colorectal surgery.

Risk adjusted auditing of postop complications in gastric cancer patients by POSSUM

POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Morbidity and mortality) has been proposed as a promising system for risk adjusted audit in surgical practice. However it has not been generalized in gastric cancer surgery. Present study evaluates the POSSUM on malignant gastric cases in Chinese hospital where patient population or healthcare system might be different than United Kingdom (UK) where the formula was devised. Total of 389 patients who underwent surgical intervention for gastric cancer and malignant gastric lymphomas during the year 2006 were included in the study. Median age was 58 years, with male:female ratio of 7:3. POSSUM data were collected according to standard criteria described by the original authors. Exponential analysis method was used for morbidity predictions. POSSUM predicted satisfactorily for morbidity, observed morbidity was not significantly different than estimated morbidity (p=0.962). Overall, 176 cases were observed to have postoperative complications (including death). The observed to expect ratio (O:E) was 0.99. There was no significant increase in complication rate with increasing age (chi(2)=3.75, 4 d.f, p=0.44). Overall 176 cases were observed to have postop complications (including death). Age was not a risk factor for early postoperative complication. POSSUM predicted well in this study, which means it is a valid system for gastric cancer surgery. However, overall complication rate considered being higher if it is recorded according to POSSUM criteria. Modification in POSSUM equation with revised morbidity definition may be more feasible for major operations.

Colorectal stenting as an effective therapy for preoperative and palliative treatment of large bowel obstruction: 9 years' experience

BACKGROUND

Since their introduction, selfextending metal stents (SEMS) have established themselves as an option in the treatment of obstructive colorectal cancer. Thanks to stenting, patients traditionally treated with emergency surgery can now be converted to scheduled surgery with mechanical preparation of the colon and primary anastomosis. Stenting represents a valid one-step surgical alternative for intestinal obstruction of the colon.

METHODS

We performed a prospective study of 95 patients (mean age, 68 years; range 48-94) with large bowel obstruction due to colorectal cancer treated with SEMS placed under fluoroscopic guidance, some as a bridge to surgery (group A) and others with palliative intent (group B). Computed tomography was performed for diagnostic purposes and to study the extent of disease.

RESULTS

Treatment was palliative in 28 cases (group B) and as a bridge to surgery in 67 (group A). The latter group underwent mechanical preparation of the colon and elective surgery. No patients died as a result of the procedure. In 90 cases (95%), treatment was effective and the obstruction resolved. Complications were 4 cases of perforation, 1 of tenesmus, 4 obstructions and 4 migrations. In 7 cases, a second stent was inserted to allow subsequent scheduled surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Self-extending stents resolve colorectal cancer obstruction and allow optimal patient staging and scheduled surgical treatment. Stenting is also a useful option in advanced or irresectable tumors, avoiding the need for surgery and offering good palliation.