Temporal Trends in Age at HIV Diagnosis in Cohorts in the United States, the Caribbean, and Central and South America

HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China

OBJECTIVE

Men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.

RESULTS

The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.

CONCLUSIONS

We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth and age patterns of the HIV epidemics in these two cities. Our results may be used to inform age-targeted public health policies to curb their epidemic growth.

Mortality in Children with Human Immunodeficiency Virus Initiating Treatment: A Six-Cohort Study in Latin America

OBJECTIVES

To assess the risks of and factors associated with mortality, loss to follow-up, and changing regimens after children with HIV infected perinatally initiate combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in Latin America and the Caribbean.

STUDY DESIGN

This 1997-2013 retrospective cohort study included 1174 antiretroviral therapy-naïve, perinatally infected children who started cART age when they were younger than 18 years of age (median 4.7 years; IQR 1.7-8.8) at 1 of 6 cohorts from Argentina, Brazil, Haiti, and Honduras, within the Caribbean, Central and South America Network for HIV Epidemiology. Median follow-up was 5.6 years (IQR 2.3-9.3). Study outcomes were all-cause mortality, loss to follow-up, and major changes in cART. We used Cox proportional hazards models stratified by site to examine the association between predictors and times to death or changing regimens.

RESULTS

Only 52% started cART at younger than 5 years of age; 19% began a protease inhibitor. At cART initiation, median CD4 count was 472 cells/mm³ (IQR 201-902); median CD4% was 16% (IQR 10-23). Probability of death was high in the first year of cART: 0.06 (95% CI 0.04-0.07). Five years after cART initiation, the cumulative mortality incidence was 0.12 (95% CI 0.10-0.14). Cumulative incidences for loss to follow-up and regimen change after 5 years were 0.16 (95% 0.14-0.18) and 0.30 (95% 0.26-0.34), respectively. Younger children had the greatest risk of mortality, whereas older children had the greatest risk of being lost to follow-up or changing regimens.

CONCLUSIONS

Innovative clinical and community approaches are needed for quality improvement in the pediatric care of HIV in the Americas.

CD4 Counts at Entry to HIV Care in Mexico for Patients under the "Universal Antiretroviral Treatment Program for the Uninsured Population," 2007-2014

In Mexico, public health services have provided universal access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) since 2004. For individuals receiving HIV care in public healthcare facilities, the data are limited regarding CD4 T-lymphocyte counts (CD4e) at the time of entry into care. Relevant population-based estimates of CD4e are needed to inform strategies to maximize the impact of Mexico's national ART program, and may be applicable to other countries implementing universal HIV treatment programs. For this study, we retrospectively analyzed the CD4e of persons living with HIV and receiving care at state public health facilities from 2007 to 2014, comparing CD4e by demographic characteristics and the marginalization index of the state where treatment was provided, and assessing trends in CD4e over time. Our sample included 66,947 individuals who entered into HIV care between 2007 and 2014, of whom 79% were male. During the study period, the male-to-female ratio increased from 3.0 to 4.3, reflecting the country's HIV epidemic; the median age at entry decreased from 34 years to 32 years. Overall, 48.6% of individuals entered care with a CD4≤200 cells/μl, ranging from 42.2% in states with a very low marginalization index to 52.8% in states with a high marginalization index, and from 38.9% among individuals aged 18-29 to 56.5% among those older than 50. The adjusted geometric mean (95% confidence interval) CD4e increased among males from 135 (131,142) cells/μl in 2007 to 148 (143,155) cells/μl in 2014 (p-value<0.0001); no change was observed among women, with a geometric mean of 178 (171,186) and 171 (165,183) in 2007 and 2014, respectively. There have been important gains in access to HIV care and treatment; however, late entry into care remains an important barrier in achieving optimal outcomes of ART in Mexico. The geographic, socioeconomic, and demographic differences observed reflect important inequities in timely access to HIV prevention, care, and treatment services, and highlight the need to develop contextual and culturally appropriate prevention and HIV testing strategies and linkage programs.