How often are invasion-induced ecological impacts missed?

Phenological mismatches mitigate the ecological impact of a biological invader on amphibian communities

Horizon scans have emerged as a valuable tool to anticipate the incoming invasive alien species (IAS) by judging species on their potential impacts. However, little research has been conducted on quantifying actual impacts and assessing causes of species-specific vulnerabilities to particular IAS due to persistent methodological challenges. The underlying interspecific mechanisms driving species-specific vulnerabilities therefore remain poorly understood, even though they can substantially improve the accuracy of risk assessments. Given that interspecific interactions underlying ecological impacts of IAS are often shaped by phenological synchrony, we tested the hypothesis that temporal mismatches in breeding phenology between native species and IAS can mitigate their ecological impacts. Focusing on the invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus), we combined an environmental DNA (eDNA) quantitative barcoding and metabarcoding survey in Belgium with a global meta-analysis, and integrated citizen-science data on breeding phenology. We examined whether the presence of native amphibian species was negatively related to the presence or abundance of invasive bullfrogs and whether this relationship was affected by their phenological mismatches. The field study revealed a significant negative effect of increasing bullfrog eDNA concentrations on native amphibian species richness and community structure. These observations were shaped by species-specific vulnerabilities to invasive bullfrogs, with late spring- and summer-breeding species being strongly affected, while winter-breeding species remained unaffected. This trend was confirmed by the global meta-analysis. A significant negative relationship was observed between phenological mismatch and the impact of bullfrogs. Specifically, native amphibian species with breeding phenology differing by 6 weeks or less from invasive bullfrogs were more likely to be absent in the presence of bullfrogs than species whose phenology differed by more than 6 weeks with that of bullfrogs. Taken together, we present a novel method based on the combination of aqueous eDNA quantitative barcoding and metabarcoding to quantify the ecological impacts of biological invaders at the community level. We show that phenological mismatches between native and invasive species can be a strong predictor of invasion impact regardless of ecological or methodological context. Therefore, we advocate for the integration of temporal alignment between native and IAS's phenologies into invasion impact frameworks.

Hurdles and opportunities in implementing marine biosecurity systems in data-poor regions

Managing marine nonindigenous species (mNIS) is challenging, because marine environments are highly connected, allowing the dispersal of species across large spatial scales, including geopolitical borders. Cross-border inconsistencies in biosecurity management can promote the spread of mNIS across geopolitical borders, and incursions often go unnoticed or unreported. Collaborative surveillance programs can enhance the early detection of mNIS, when response may still be possible, and can foster capacity building around a common threat. Regional or international databases curated for mNIS can inform local monitoring programs and can foster real-time information exchange on mNIS of concern. When combined, local species reference libraries, publicly available mNIS databases, and predictive modeling can facilitate the development of biosecurity programs in regions lacking baseline data. Biosecurity programs should be practical, feasible, cost-effective, mainly focused on prevention and early detection, and be built on the collaboration and coordination of government, nongovernment organizations, stakeholders, and local citizens for a rapid response.

Expanding the invasion toolbox: including stable isotope analysis in risk assessment

Species introductions are a major concern for ecosystem functioning, socio-economic wealth, and human well-being. Preventing introductions proved to be the most effective management strategy, and various tools such as species distribution models and risk assessment protocols have been developed or applied to this purpose. These approaches use information on a species to predict its potential invasiveness and impact in the case of its introduction into a new area. At the same time, much biodiversity has been lost due to multiple drivers. Ways to determine the potential for successful reintroductions of once native but now extinct species as well as assisted migrations are yet missing. Stable isotope analyses are commonly used to reconstruct a species’ feeding ecology and trophic interactions within communities. Recently, this method has been used to predict potentially arising trophic interactions in the absence of the target species. Here we propose the implementation of stable isotope analysis as an approach for assessment schemes to increase the accuracy in predicting invader impacts as well as the success of reintroductions and assisted migrations. We review and discuss possibilities and limitations of this methods usage, suggesting promising and useful applications for scientists and managers.

Meta-analysis on the ecological impacts of widely spread non-indigenous species in the Baltic Sea

The introduction of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a major driver for global change in species biogeography, often associated with significant consequences for recipient ecosystems and services they provide for humans. Despite mandated by several high-level international legislative instruments, comprehensive quantitative evaluation on ecosystem impacts of marine NIS is scarce and lack a robust and data-driven assessment framework. The current study is aiming at fulfilling this gap, through quantitative assessment on the effects of the widespread NIS of the Baltic Sea on multiple ecosystem features and components including direct food-web effects. The outcomes of this study allowed identifying the most impacting widespread NIS, together with defining the processes underlying the most significant changes and outlined major sources of uncertainty. Lack and/or bias in the availability of evidence of impacts was recorded for several (both recent and early) introductions. Realizing a sophisticated, data and information-hungry framework for the evaluation of ecosystem impacts of NIS is not pragmatic for management purposes in the foreseeable future. Instead, simple approaches, such as application of common statistical parameters like absolute effect size, are more likely to result in tangible outcomes. As bearing no unit, effect sizes can be later easily aggregated across taxa, affected ecosystem features or spatial scales. The proposed approach enables performing systematic comparisons on the severity of impacts of different NIS along different study disciplines and ecosystems.

Dealing with false positive risk as an indicator of misperceived effectiveness of conservation interventions

As human pressures on the environment continue to spread and intensify, effective conservation interventions are direly needed to prevent threats, reduce conflicts, and recover populations and landscapes in a liaison between science and conservation. It is practically important to discriminate between true and false (or misperceived) effectiveness of interventions as false perceptions may shape a wrong conservation agenda and lead to inappropriate decisions and management actions. This study used the false positive risk (FPR) to estimate the rates of misperceived effectiveness of electric fences (overstated if reported as effective but actually ineffective based on FPR; understated otherwise), explain their causes and propose recommendations on how to improve the representation of true effectiveness. Electric fences are widely applied to reduce damage to fenced assets, such as livestock and beehives, or increase survival of fenced populations. The analysis of 109 cases from 50 publications has shown that the effectiveness of electric fences was overstated in at least one-third of cases, from 31.8% at FPR = 0.2 (20% risk) to 51.1% at FPR = 0.05 (5% risk, true effectiveness). In contrast, understatement reduced from 23.8% to 9.5% at these thresholds of FPR. This means that truly effective applications of electric fences were only 48.9% of all cases reported as effective, but truly ineffective cases were 90.5%, implying that the effectiveness of electric fences was heavily overstated. The main reasons of this bias were the lack of statistical testing or improper reporting of test results (63.3% of cases) and interpretation of marginally significant results (p < 0.05, p < 0.1 and p around 0.05) as indicators of effectiveness (10.1%). In conclusion, FPR is an important tool for estimating true effectiveness of conservation interventions and its application is highly recommended to disentangle true and false effectiveness for planning appropriate conservation actions. Researchers are encouraged to calculate FPR, publish its constituent statistics (especially treatment and control sample sizes) and explicitly provide test results with p values. It is suggested to call the effectiveness “true” if FPR < 0.05, “suggestive” if 0.05 ≤ FPR < 0.2 and “false” if FPR ≥ 0.2.

Identifying hotspots of non-indigenous species' high impact in the Maltese islands (Central Mediterranean Sea)

Several invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) cause ecological and socio-economic impacts. A good understanding of the impacts of invasive NIS in Mediterranean habitats is important for managing and prioritising measures in the marine environment. We applied a conservative additive model to sum up the Cumulative IMPacts of invasive Alien (CIMPAL) species of 19 invasive marine NIS on 13 habitats in Maltese waters. This analysis identified three hotspot areas of NIS' high impact and five top-priority together with four high-priority invasive NIS for management. By using CIMPAL, it was also possible to differentiate between areas within the same Marine Protected Area. CIMPAL is thus recommended as a good tool for managers and policy makers for prioritising measures as well as funds. Finally, recommendations are made with respect to future steps that are needed for the CIMPAL applicability, aiming to a more appropriate decision-making on prioritisation of hotspot areas and invasive marine NIS.

Micro-habitat and season dependent impact of the invasive Impatiens glandulifera on native vegetation

The impact of invasive species is often difficult to assess due to species × ecosystem interactions. Impatiens glandulifera heavily invaded several habitat types in Central Europe but its impact on native plant communities is rated ambiguously. One reason could be that the impact differs between habitat types or even between environmentally heterogeneous patches (micro-habitats) within one habitat type. In the present study a vegetation survey was performed within heterogeneous riverside habitats in Germany investigating the impact of I. glandulifera on native vegetation in dependence of environmental conditions. The vegetation was recorded in summer and spring because of seasonal species turnover and thus potentially different impact of the invasive plant. We found that the cover of I. glandulifera depended on environmental conditions resulting in a patchy occurrence. I. glandulifera did not have any impact on plant alpha-diversity but reduced the cover of the native vegetation, especially of the dominant species. This effect depended on micro-habitat and season. The native vegetation was most affected in bright micro-habitats, especially those with a high soil moisture. Not distinguishing between micro-habitats, plant species composition was not affected in summer but in spring. However, environmental conditions had a higher impact on the native vegetation than I. glandulifera. We conclude that within riparian habitats the threat of I. glandulifera to the native vegetation can be rated low since native species were reduced in cover but not excluded from the communities. This might be due to patchy occurrence and year-to-year changes in cover of I. glandulifera. The context-dependency in terms of micro-habitat and season requires specific risk assessments which is also an opportunity for nature conservation to develop management plans specific to the different habitats. Particular attention should be given to habitats that are bright and very wet since the effect of I. glandulifera was strongest in these habitats.

Introductions and transfers of species by ballast water in the Adriatic Sea

Following the Editorial addressing the BALMAS project, we open the ballast water management special issue for the Adriatic Sea by providing background information on non-indigenous species and the mechanisms (vectors) of transport. Problems allocating introduction mechanisms for various species with certainty are described; in general, key introduction mechanisms are shipping, with ballast water and biofouling as dominant vectors, and aquaculture activities. The dominant mechanisms for introduction may differ through time, between regions and across species. We highlight ballast water as the focus of an international convention to prevent future introductions, reviewing management options and suggesting future research needs. This assessment is not restricted in application to the Adriatic Sea, but is applicable to other coastal waters. Results of such future work may contribute to the experience building phase planned by the International Maritime Organization for a harmonised implementation of the Ballast Water Management Convention.

Nest-site competition and killing by invasive parakeets cause the decline of a threatened bat population

The identification of effects of invasive species is challenging owing to their multifaceted impacts on native biota. Negative impacts are most often reflected in individual fitness rather than in population dynamics of native species and are less expected in low-biodiversity habitats, such as urban environments. We report the long-term effects of invasive rose-ringed parakeets on the largest known population of a threatened bat species, the greater noctule, located in an urban park. Both species share preferences for the same tree cavities for breeding. While the number of parakeet nests increased by a factor of 20 in 14 years, the number of trees occupied by noctules declined by 81%. Parakeets occupied most cavities previously used by noctules, and spatial analyses showed that noctules tried to avoid cavities close to parakeets. Parakeets were highly aggressive towards noctules, trying to occupy their cavities, often resulting in noctule death. This led to a dramatic population decline, but also an unusual aggregation of the occupied trees, probably disrupting the complex social behaviour of this bat species. These results indicate a strong impact through site displacement and killing of competitors, and highlight the need for long-term research to identify unexpected impacts that would otherwise be overlooked.

What do we really know about the impacts of one of the 100 worst invaders in Europe? A reality check

Invasive species are one of the greatest threats to biodiversity worldwide, and to successfully manage their introductions is a major challenge for society. Knowledge on the impacts of an invasive species is essential for motivating decision makers and optimally allocating management resources. We use a prominent invasive fish species, the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) to objectively quantify the state of scientific knowledge on its impacts. Focusing on how native fish species are affected by round goby invasions, we analyzed 113 peer-reviewed papers and found that impacts are highly ecosystem and time scale dependent. We discovered round goby impacts to be profound, but surprisingly complex. Even if identical native species were affected, the impacts remained less comparable across ecosystems than expected. Acknowledging the breadth but also limitations in scientific knowledge on round goby impacts would greatly improve scientists' ability to conduct further research and inform management measures.

Improving invasive species management by integrating priorities and contributions of scientists and decision makers

Managing invasive species is a major challenge for society. In the case of newly established invaders, rapid action is key for a successful management. Here, we develop, describe and recommend a three-step transdisciplinary process (the "butterfly model") to rapidly initiate action for invasion management. In the framing of a case study, we present results from the first of these steps: assessing priorities and contributions of both scientists and decision makers. Both scientists and decision makers prioritise research on prevention. The available scientific knowledge contributions, however, are publications on impacts rather than prevention of the invasive species. The contribution of scientific knowledge does thus not reflect scientists' perception of what is essentially needed. We argue that a more objective assessment and transparent communication of not only decision makers' but also scientists' priorities is an essential basis for a successful cooperation. Our three-step model can help achieve objectivity via transdisciplinary communication.

Assessing exemptions under the ballast water management convention: preclude the Trojan horse

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) Ballast Water Management Convention (BWMC) is a powerful instrument aimed at reducing spread of harmful aquatic organisms and pathogens (HAOPs). As BWMC is expected to enter into force soon, shipping companies will start seeking exemptions for ballast water management in accordance with BWMC Regulation A-4. However, without scientifically robust risk assessment (RA) and consistent rules, the exemptions may introduce a new form of risk within a convention generally designed to reduce risks. This paper describes an adaptive system for granting exemptions, consisting of six major components: target species selection procedure, port-to-port RA, monitoring, information support, administrative decision and review process. The system is based on key principles defined in the IMO guidelines for RA and is designed to continuously accumulate evolving experience on granting exemptions. The ultimate goal is to contribute to the control of the spread of HAOPs, without placing an unnecessary burden on the shipping industry.

Understanding Acceptable Level of Risk: Incorporating the Economic Cost of Under-Managing Invasive Species

Management of nonindigenous species includes prevention, early detection and rapid response and control. Early detection and rapid response depend on prioritizing and monitoring sites at risk for arrival or secondary spread of nonindigenous species. Such monitoring efforts require sufficient biosecurity budgets to be effective and meet management or policy directives for reduced risk of introduction. Such consideration of risk reduction is rarely considered, however. Here, we review the concepts of acceptable level of risk (ALOR) and associated costs with respect to nonindigenous species and present a framework for aligning risk reduction priorities with available biosecurity resources. We conclude that available biosecurity resources may be insufficient to attain stated and desired risk reduction. This outcome highlights the need to consider policy and management directives when beginning a biosecurity program to determine the feasibility of risk reduction goals, given available resources.

Classification of non-indigenous species based on their impacts: considerations for application in marine management

Assessment of the ecological and economic/societal impacts of the introduction of non-indigenous species (NIS) is one of the primary focus areas of bioinvasion science in terrestrial and aquatic environments, and is considered essential to management. A classification system of NIS, based on the magnitude of their environmental impacts, was recently proposed to assist management. Here, we consider the potential application of this classification scheme to the marine environment, and offer a complementary framework focussing on value sets in order to explicitly address marine management concerns. Since existing data on marine NIS impacts are scarce and successful marine removals are rare, we propose that management of marine NIS adopt a precautionary approach, which not only would emphasise preventing new incursions through pre-border and at-border controls but also should influence the categorisation of impacts. The study of marine invasion impacts requires urgent attention and significant investment, since we lack the luxury of waiting for the knowledge base to be acquired before the window of opportunity closes for feasible management.

Classifying the impact of non-indigenous species presents special problems in marine environments. This Essay presents a framework that focuses on values and emphasizes precaution in managing the data limitations and uncertainties found in the marine context.