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Degnim AC, Winham SJ, Frank RD, Pankratz VS, Dupont WD, Vierkant RA, Frost MH, Hoskin TL, Vachon CM, Ghosh K, Hieken TJ, Carter JM, Denison LA, Broderick B, Hartmann LC, Visscher DW, Radisky DC. Model for Predicting Breast Cancer Risk in Women With Atypical Hyperplasia. J Clin Oncol 2018; 36:1840-1846. [PMID: 29676945 DOI: 10.1200/jco.2017.75.9480] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Purpose Women with atypical hyperplasia (AH) on breast biopsy have an aggregate increased risk of breast cancer (BC), but existing risk prediction models do not provide accurate individualized estimates of risk in this subset of high-risk women. Here, we used the Mayo benign breast disease cohort to develop and validate a model of BC risk prediction that is specifically for women with AH, which we have designated as AH-BC. Patients and Methods Retrospective cohorts of women age 18 to 85 years with pathologically confirmed benign AH from Rochester, MN, and Nashville, TN, were used for model development and external validation, respectively. Clinical risk factors and histologic features of the tissue biopsy were selected using L1-penalized Cox proportional hazards regression. Identified features were included in a Fine and Gray regression model to estimate BC risk, with death as a competing risk. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed in the model-building set and an external validation set. Results The model-building set consisted of 699 women with AH, 142 of whom developed BC (median follow-up, 8.1 years), and the external validation set consisted of 461 women with 114 later BC events (median follow-up, 11.4 years). The final AH-BC model included three covariates: age at biopsy, age at biopsy squared, and number of foci of AH. At 10 years, the AH-BC model demonstrated good discrimination (0.63 [95% CI, 0.57 to 0.70]) and calibration (0.87 [95% CI, 0.66 to 1.24]). In the external validation set, the model showed acceptable discrimination (0.59 [95% CI, 0.51 to 0.67]) and calibration (0.91 [95% CI, 0.65 to 1.42]). Conclusion We have created a new model with which to refine BC risk prediction for women with AH. The AH-BC model demonstrates good discrimination and calibration, and it validates in an external data set.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amy C Degnim
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - Stacey J Winham
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - Ryan D Frank
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - V Shane Pankratz
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - William D Dupont
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - Robert A Vierkant
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - Marlene H Frost
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - Tanya L Hoskin
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - Celine M Vachon
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - Karthik Ghosh
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - Tina J Hieken
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - Jodi M Carter
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - Lori A Denison
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - Brendan Broderick
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - Lynn C Hartmann
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - Daniel W Visscher
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
| | - Derek C Radisky
- Amy C. Degnim, Stacey J. Winham, Ryan D. Frank, Robert A. Vierkant, Marlene H. Frost, Tanya L. Hoskin, Celine M. Vachon, Karthik Ghosh, Tina J. Hieken, Jodi M. Carter, Lori A. Denison, Brendan Broderick, Lynn C. Hartmann, and Daniel W. Visscher, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN; V. Shane Pankratz, University of New Mexico Health Sciences Center, Albuquerque, NM; William D. Dupont, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and Derek C. Radisky, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL
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Winham SJ, Mehner C, Heinzen EP, Broderick BT, Stallings-Mann M, Nassar A, Vierkant RA, Hoskin TL, Frank RD, Wang C, Denison LA, Vachon CM, Frost MH, Hartmann LC, Aubrey Thompson E, Sherman ME, Visscher DW, Degnim AC, Radisky DC. NanoString-based breast cancer risk prediction for women with sclerosing adenosis. Breast Cancer Res Treat 2017; 166:641-650. [PMID: 28798985 PMCID: PMC5668350 DOI: 10.1007/s10549-017-4441-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2017] [Accepted: 08/04/2017] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
Purpose Sclerosing adenosis (SA), found in ¼ of benign breast disease (BBD) biopsies, is a histological feature characterized by lobulocentric proliferation of acini and stromal fibrosis and confers a two-fold increase in breast cancer risk compared to women in the general population. We evaluated a NanoString-based gene expression assay to model breast cancer risk using RNA derived from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) biopsies with SA. Methods The study group consisted of 151 women diagnosed with SA between 1967 and 2001 within the Mayo BBD cohort, of which 37 subsequently developed cancer within 10 years (cases) and 114 did not (controls). RNA was isolated from benign breast biopsies, and NanoString-based methods were used to assess expression levels of 61 genes, including 35 identified by previous array-based profiling experiments and 26 from biological insight. Diagonal linear discriminant analysis of these data was used to predict cancer within 10 years. Predictive performance was assessed with receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) values estimated from 5-fold cross-validation. Results Gene expression prediction models achieved cross-validated ROC-AUC estimates ranging from 0.66 to 0.70. Performing univariate associations within each of the five folds consistently identified genes DLK2, EXOC6, KIT, RGS12, and SORBS2 as significant; a model with only these five genes showed cross-validated ROC-AUC of 0.75, which compared favorably to risk prediction using established clinical models (Gail/BCRAT: 0.57; BBD-BC: 0.67). Conclusions Our results demonstrate that biomarkers of breast cancer risk can be detected in benign breast tissue years prior to cancer development in women with SA. These markers can be assessed using assay methods optimized for RNA derived from FFPE biopsy tissues which are commonly available. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10549-017-4441-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stacey J Winham
- Division of Biomedical Statistics and Informatics, Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, 55905, USA
| | - Christine Mehner
- Department of Cancer Biology, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL, 32224, USA
| | - Ethan P Heinzen
- Division of Biomedical Statistics and Informatics, Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, 55905, USA
| | - Brendan T Broderick
- Division of Biomedical Statistics and Informatics, Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, 55905, USA
| | | | - Aziza Nassar
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL, 32224, USA
| | - Robert A Vierkant
- Division of Biomedical Statistics and Informatics, Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, 55905, USA
| | - Tanya L Hoskin
- Division of Biomedical Statistics and Informatics, Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, 55905, USA
| | - Ryan D Frank
- Division of Biomedical Statistics and Informatics, Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, 55905, USA
| | - Chen Wang
- Division of Biomedical Statistics and Informatics, Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, 55905, USA
| | - Lori A Denison
- Department of Information Technology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, 55905, USA
| | - Celine M Vachon
- Division of Biomedical Statistics and Informatics, Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, 55905, USA
| | - Marlene H Frost
- Department of Medical Oncology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, 55905, USA
| | - Lynn C Hartmann
- Department of Medical Oncology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, 55905, USA
| | - E Aubrey Thompson
- Department of Cancer Biology, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL, 32224, USA
| | - Mark E Sherman
- Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL, 32224, USA
| | - Daniel W Visscher
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, 55905, USA
| | - Amy C Degnim
- Department of Surgery, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, 55905, USA
| | - Derek C Radisky
- Department of Cancer Biology, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL, 32224, USA.
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