Clinical validity of clinical treatment score 5 (CTS5) for estimating risk of late recurrence in unselected, non-trial patients with early oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer

Is the CTS5 a helpful decision-making tool in the extended adjuvant therapy setting?

PURPOSE

The Clinical Treatment Score post-5 years (CTS5) is an easy-to-use tool estimating the late distant recurrence (LDR) risk in patients with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer after 5 years of endocrine therapy (ET). Apart from evaluating the prognostic value and calibration accuracy of CTS5, the aim of this study is to clarify if this score is able to identify patients at higher risk for LDR who will benefit from extended ET.

METHODS

Prognostic power, calibration, and predictive value of the CTS5 was tested in patients of the prospective ABCSG-06 and -06a trials (n = 1254 and 860 patients, respectively). Time to LDR was analyzed with Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Higher rates of LDR in the years five to ten were observed in high- and intermediate-risk patients compared to low-risk patients (HR 4.02, 95%CI 2.26-7.15, p < 0.001 and HR 1.93, 95%CI 1.05-3.56, p = 0.035). An increasing continuous CTS5 was associated with increasing LDR risk (HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.74-2.85, p < 0.001). Miscalibration of CTS5 in high-risk patients could be observed. Although not reaching significance, high-risk patients benefitted the most from prolonged ET with an absolute reduction of the estimated 5-year LDR of - 6.1% (95%CI - 14.4 to 2.3).

CONCLUSION

The CTS5 is a reliable prognostic tool that is well calibrated in the lower and intermediate risk groups with a substantial difference of expected versus observed LDR rates in high-risk patients. While a numerical trend in favoring prolonged ET for patients with a higher CTS5 was found, a significantly predictive value for the score could not be confirmed.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ABCSG-06 trial (NCT00309491), ABCSG-06A7 1033AU/0001 (NCT00300508).

Predictors of Early Versus Late Recurrence in Invasive Lobular Carcinoma of the Breast: Impact of Local and Systemic Therapy

BACKGROUND

Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) of the breast is known for high risk of late recurrence, yet some patients still recur within 5 years of diagnosis. Determining factors associated with early/late recurrence could help tailor treatment and surveillance strategies.

METHODS

Using an institutional database, we evaluated patients with ILC and ≥ 5 years of follow-up or recurrence within 5 years. We used multivariate logistic regression and the Kaplan-Meier method to evaluate which clinicopathologic features and treatment strategies were associated with recurrence < 5 years since diagnosis versus recurrence ≥ 5 years since diagnosis. Additionally, we explored the association between Clinical Treatment Score 5 (CTS5) with early versus late recurrence.

RESULTS

Among 513 cases of stage I-III ILC, there were 75 early and 54 late recurrences during a median follow-up period of 9.4 years. Early recurrence was associated with larger tumors (mean 4.2 cm vs. 2.9 cm, p < 0.0001), higher incidence of > 3 positive nodes (32.4% vs. 9.11%, p > 0.0001), and more aggressive tumor biology (low/negative progesterone receptor expression, higher grade, and higher Ki67). Late recurrence was associated with younger age (mean 55.6 vs. 59.2 years, p = 0.037) and elevated body mass index (BMI > 25 kg/m2 in 60.1.0% vs. 45.4%, p = 0.021). Omission of adjuvant endocrine therapy or radiotherapy after lumpectomy conferred increased risk of early rather than late recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Factors related to tumor aggressiveness and treatment were associated with early recurrence, whereas patient related factors were related to late recurrence. These data may help guide treatment strategies and surveillance approaches for patients with ILC.

Clinical Treatment Score Post-5 Years as a Tool for Risk Estimation of Late Recurrence in Thai Patients With Estrogen-Receptor-Positive, Early Breast Cancer: A Validation Study

Background

The risk of late distant recurrence (LDR) of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer continues even after 5 years of endocrine treatment. Clinical Treatment Score after 5 years (CTS5) was developed and validated as a tool to assess the risk of LDR using data from Tamoxifen, Arimidex Alone or in Combinations (ATAC) and Breast International Group 1-98 (BIG1-98) trials. This study aimed to externally validate CTS5 in a real-world cohort of patients treated at an academic center in Thailand.

Methods

The study was a retrospective analytical research study of early-stage, ER-positive breast cancer patients. The primary endpoint was LDR. The risk of LDR was determined using the CTS5 calculator. Cox regression model and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were applied for prognostic validation of CTS5. Calibration was performed by comparing observed LDR to expected LDR using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test.

Results

A total of 323 women were included with a median follow-up period of 11.6 years. The rate of LDR was 10.8%. The CTS5 was prognostic for LDR. C-index of the area under the ROC curve was 0.672. There was no significant difference between actual and expected numbers of LDR with an observed (O) LDR events to expected (E) number of LDR events ratio of 0.99 (0.86-1.12) (H-L P = .79) indicating a proper calibration in this cohort.

Conclusions

Our study validated that CTS5 is accurate in predicting the risk of LDR in ER-positive breast cancer cases in Thai patients. Its performance seemed to be better in postmenopausal patients. CTS5 could be applied in routine clinical practice to improve decisions regarding prolonged endocrine therapy, particularly in resource-limited countries where molecular profiling are inaccessible.

Impact of clinicopathological factors on extended endocrine therapy decision making in estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer

Purpose

In our study, we aim to analyze the impact of clinicopathological factors on the recommendation of extended endocrine therapy (EET) in patients with ER+ breast cancer and to retrospectively validate the value of CTS5 in EET decision making.

Patients and methods

The retrospective analysis was performed in patients with ER+ breast cancer who have finished 4.5-5 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy and undergone MDT discussion from October 2017 to November 2019. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify the independent factors for treatment recommendation. CTS5 was calculated for retrospective validation of the EET decision making.

Results

Two hundred thirty-five patients were received; 4.5-5 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy were included in the study. Multivariate analysis suggested that age (OR 0.460, 95% CI 0.219-0.965, p = 0.04), pN (OR 39.350, 95% CI 9.831-157.341, P < 0.001), and receipt of chemotherapy (OR 3.478, 95% CI 1.336-9.055, p = 0.011) were independent predictors for the recommendation of EET. In the previously selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM)-treated subgroup, pN and receipt of chemotherapy were independent predictors for the recommendation of EET. In the previously AI-treated subgroup, age, pN, and receipt of chemotherapy were independent predictors. Adverse events did not affect the recommendation in patients previously treated with adjuvant endocrine treatment nor in the previously SERM or AI-treated subgroups. CTS5 (OR 21.887, 95% CI 2.846-168.309, p = 0.003) remained an independent predictor for the recommendation of EET.

Conclusions

Our study indicated that age, lymph nodal status, and receipt of chemotherapy were independent predictors for the recommendation of EET. The application of the CTS5 on EET decision making might be valuable among ER+ breast cancer patients.

Extended Adjuvant Endocrine Treatment in Luminal Breast Cancers in the Era of Genomic Tests

In patients with early-stage endocrine receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancer (BC), adjuvant endocrine therapy (ET) for 5 years is the standard of care. However, for some patients, the risk of recurrence remain high for up to 15 years after diagnosis and extended ET beyond 5 years may be a reasonable option. Nevertheless, this strategy significantly increases the occurrence of side effects. Here we summarize the available evidence from randomized clinical trials on the efficacy and safety profile of extended ET and discuss available clinical and genomic tools helpful to select eligible patients in daily clinical practice.

Comparison of CTS5 risk model and 21-gene recurrence score assay in large-scale breast cancer population and combination of CTS5 and recurrence score to develop a novel nomogram for prognosis prediction

Background

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women. Clinical models such as Oncotype DX recurrence score (RS) and Clinical Treatment Score post–5 years (CTS5) model for survival prediction are crucial for clinical practice. However, it remains unclear whether CTS5 or RS would be a more powerful clinical model for recurrence risk evaluation. Therefore, we conducted the present study to compare the performance of CTS5 risk model and RS on different recurrence evaluation. And we further integrated the two models into a novel nomogram to improve the power for prognosis prediction.

Methods

Female patients with invasive hormone receptor positive breast cancer in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database with RS data available were included. The clinicopathological data were directly extracted from SEER database. Participants were divided into three subsets according to recurrence timing (<36 months, between 36 and 60 months, and >60 months) for model evaluation. Survival receiver operating characteristic curve and C-index were calculated to evaluate discrimination. Calibration curve were used to visual inspection for calibration. Model comparison was assessed by net reclassification index (NRI) method. Nomogram prognostic model was developed with the combination of CTS5 score and RS and also included other critical clinicopathological parameters.

Results

In total, 64044 breast cancer patients were enrolled for analysis. The number of patients with survival <36 months (early recurrence subset), 36–60 months (intermediate recurrence subset) and >60 months (late recurrence subset) were 64044, 36878 and 15926, respectively. For model discrimination, CTS5 model was superior to RS for overall survival (OS) prediction (likelihood ratio test P < 0 0.001). RS model showed better performance for breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) in late recurrence subsets and worse performance in early and intermediate recurrence subsets than CTS5 (likelihood ratio test P < 0 0.001). For calibration, CTS5 model was superior to RS model for OS, which overestimated the recurrence risk in low-risk subgroup. Both models overestimated the risk for BCSS. In either early/intermediate/late recurrence patient subsets, there was no significant difference in NRI between two models in terms of both BCSS and OS, indicating the two models had comparable prognostic value. The nomogram which combined these two models largely improved the discrimination and calibration power (C-index 0.70–0.72).

Conclusions

Our study proved the CTS5 risk model had comparable prognostic value as RS in HR + breast cancer patients. And the novel nomogram model had better discrimination and calibration than both CTS5 and RS, and future large-scale clinical trials are warranted for further validation.

Biomarkers for Adjuvant Endocrine and Chemotherapy in Early-Stage Breast Cancer: ASCO Guideline Update

PURPOSE

To update recommendations on appropriate use of breast cancer biomarker assay results to guide adjuvant endocrine and chemotherapy decisions in early-stage breast cancer.

METHODS

An updated literature search identified randomized clinical trials and prospective-retrospective studies published from January 2016 to October 2021. Outcomes of interest included overall survival and disease-free or recurrence-free survival. Expert Panel members used informal consensus to develop evidence-based recommendations.

RESULTS

The search identified 24 studies informing the evidence base.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Clinicians may use Oncotype DX, MammaPrint, Breast Cancer Index (BCI), and EndoPredict to guide adjuvant endocrine and chemotherapy in patients who are postmenopausal or age > 50 years with early-stage estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative (ER+ and HER2-) breast cancer that is node-negative or with 1-3 positive nodes. Prosigna and BCI may be used in postmenopausal patients with node-negative ER+ and HER2- breast cancer. In premenopausal patients, clinicians may use Oncotype in patients with node-negative ER+ and HER2- breast cancer. Current data suggest that premenopausal patients with 1-3 positive nodes benefit from chemotherapy regardless of genomic assay result. There are no data on use of genomic tests to guide adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with ≥ 4 positive nodes. Ki67 combined with other parameters or immunohistochemistry 4 score may be used in postmenopausal patients without access to genomic tests to guide adjuvant therapy decisions. BCI may be offered to patients with 0-3 positive nodes who received 5 years of endocrine therapy without evidence of recurrence to guide decisions about extended endocrine therapy. None of the assays are recommended for treatment guidance in individuals with HER2-positive or triple-negative breast cancer. Treatment decisions should also consider disease stage, comorbidities, and patient preferences.Additional information is available at www.asco.org/breast-cancer-guidelines.

Gene Expression Profiling in Early Breast Cancer-Patient Stratification Based on Molecular and Tumor Microenvironment Features

Patients with early-stage hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2−) breast cancer (BC) are typically treated with surgery, followed by adjuvant systemic endocrine therapy with or without adjuvant chemotherapy and radiation therapy. Current guidelines regarding the use of adjuvant systemic therapy depend on clinical and pathological factors, such as the morphological assessment of tumor subtype; histological grade; tumor size; lymphovascular invasion; and lymph node status combined with estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and HER2 biomarker profiles assessed using immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization. Additionally, the prognostic and predictive value of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and their composition is emerging as a key marker in triple negative (TNBC) and HER2-enriched molecular breast tumor subtypes. However, all these factors do not necessarily reflect the molecular heterogeneity and complexity of breast cancer. In the last two decades, gene expression signatures or profiling (GEP) tests have been developed to predict the risk of disease recurrence and estimate the potential benefit of receiving adjuvant systemic chemotherapy in patients with luminal breast cancer. GEPs have been utilized to help physicians to refine decision-making process, complementing clinicopathological parameters, and can now be used to classify the risk of recurrence and tailoring personalized treatments. Several clinical trials using GEPs validate the increasing value of such assays in different clinical settings, addressing relevant clinical endpoints. Finally, the recent approval of immune checkpoint inhibitors in TNBC and the increasing use of immunotherapy in different molecular BC populations highlight the opportunity to refine current GEPs by including a variety of immune-related genes that may help to improve predicting drug response and finetune prognosis.

Challenges in Adjuvant Therapy for Premenopausal Women Diagnosed With Luminal Breast Cancers

More than 90% of women with newly diagnosed breast cancer present with stage I to III disease and, with optimal multidisciplinary therapy, are likely to survive their disease. Of these patients, 70% are hormone receptor-positive and candidates for adjuvant endocrine therapy. The adoption of cumulatively better adjuvant treatments contributed to improved outcomes in patients with hormone receptor-positive, early-stage breast cancer. Premenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer often present with complex disease and have inferior survival outcomes compared with their postmenopausal counterparts. Risk stratification strategies, including classic clinicopathologic features and newer gene expression assays, can assist in treatment decisions, including adjuvant chemotherapy use and type or duration of endocrine therapy. Gene expression assays may help identify patients who can safely forgo chemotherapy, although to a lesser extent among premenopausal patients, in whom they may play a role only in node-negative disease. Patients at lower risk of recurrence can be adequately treated with tamoxifen alone, whereas higher-risk patients benefit from ovarian function suppression with tamoxifen or an aromatase inhibitor. The role of adding newer therapies such as CDK4/6 inhibitors to adjuvant endocrine therapy is not yet clear. Breast cancer treatments are associated with several side effects, with major impact on patients' quality of life and treatment adherence, particularly in premenopausal women for whom these side effects may be more prominent as the result of the abrupt decrease in estrogen concentrations. Personalized management of treatment side effects, addressing patients' concerns, and health promotion should be an integral part of the care of premenopausal women diagnosed with luminal breast cancers.